Core Viewpoint - Despite the current political turmoil in France, Goldman Sachs' co-head in Paris, Celine-Marie Mechain, anticipates an acceleration in transaction activity, particularly in the M&A market in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Political Context - France is experiencing a government crisis, with Prime Minister Borne facing a no-confidence vote on September 8, which could lead to his resignation [1] - Investors are preparing for increased political risks, which may disrupt the nascent economic recovery as some companies delay hiring and investments [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Mechain expresses optimism about France's economic prospects despite the overall political situation [1] - The expectation is that M&A market activity will increase, indicating continued interest in France as an attractive investment destination [1]

Group 1: Market Reaction - Indonesia's stock and bond markets are experiencing significant sell-offs due to increasing concerns over political stability, with the benchmark index dropping 3.6%, marking the largest decline in nearly five months [1] - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 7 basis points to 6.4%, the highest level in three weeks, indicating pressure in the bond market [1] - The recent protests, triggered by rising living costs and inequality, have led to a reversal in investor sentiment, impacting foreign capital inflows [1][2] Group 2: Sector Impact - Financial stocks, particularly PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, PT Bank Central Asia, and PT Bank Mandiri Persero, were the largest contributors to the index decline, each dropping over 4% [2] - Any capital outflow is expected to first impact the financial sector due to its significant index weight and potential liquidity pressures [2] Group 3: Political Context - Protests were fueled by anger over high housing allowances for lawmakers, tax increases, mass layoffs, and inflation, disproportionately affecting low-income Indonesians [2] - The political risk in Indonesia is expected to rise, leading to an increase in equity risk premiums, as noted by investment analysts [1][2] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite current turmoil, analysts believe that the long-term outlook for Indonesia and Thailand remains unchanged due to potential monetary policy easing and attractive valuations in their stock markets [5] - The establishment of the sovereign wealth fund "Danantara," which manages $1 trillion in assets, is a significant development, although concerns remain regarding its impact on the economic situation of low-income populations [5]

Group 1 - Indonesia's stock index, the Jakarta Composite Index, experienced a significant decline of 1.5% last Friday, leading the losses among global indices [1] - On Monday, the Jakarta Composite Index further dropped, reaching a maximum decline of 3.6%, marking the largest drop since April 8 [1] - As of the latest update, the index's decline was reduced to 1.11%, closing at 7743.73 [2] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that political risks in Indonesia are rising, which may increase the risk premium in the stock market [2] - The Bank of Indonesia is committed to monitoring market conditions to maintain exchange rate stability and ensure sufficient liquidity for the rupiah [2] - Prior to the recent events, the Indonesian stock market had reached a historical high, with an approximate increase of 9.6% year-to-date [2][4] Group 3 - Economic growth in Indonesia has exceeded expectations, with the second quarter growth rate returning to above 5%, boosting market confidence [4] - Indonesia's ongoing restrictions on resource exports and efforts to localize manufacturing are attracting investment and improving its position in the international supply chain [4] - The implementation of a mandatory foreign exchange retention policy has significantly increased foreign exchange reserves, enhancing confidence in the rupiah's exchange rate [4]

Group 1 - The Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia experienced a significant decline, dropping 1.5% last Friday and continuing to fall on Monday, with a peak drop of 3.6%, marking the largest decline since April 8 [1][2] - As of the latest report, the Jakarta Composite Index was down 1.11%, closing at 7743.73, after reaching a high of 7748.90 and a low of 7547.56 during the trading session [2] - Analysts indicate that political risks in Indonesia are rising, leading to an increase in market risk premiums, and they maintain a cautious stance on Indonesian equities due to valuations not reflecting potential economic issues [2] Group 2 - Prior to the recent events, the Indonesian stock market had reached an all-time high, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 9.6% [3] - The Indonesian economy showed better-than-expected growth, with the second-quarter growth rate exceeding 5%, which has bolstered market confidence [5] - The Indonesian central bank is focused on maintaining currency stability and ensuring sufficient liquidity for the rupiah, while also implementing policies to enhance foreign exchange reserves [5] Group 3 - Recent large-scale protests in Jakarta and other cities have led to significant unrest, with reports of police stations and government buildings being damaged, resulting in casualties [6] - The Chinese Embassy in Indonesia has issued safety warnings to Chinese citizens and institutions, advising them to avoid large gatherings and stay informed about local developments [6][9]

Group 1 - Political risks in Southeast Asia are rising due to increasing protests in Indonesia and political instability in Thailand [1] - Indonesia's stock benchmark index fell by 1.5% last Friday, marking the largest decline among global country indices tracked by Bloomberg [1] - The Bank of Indonesia has hinted at stabilizing the Indonesian rupiah amid these challenges [1] Group 2 - Thailand's stock market also experienced a decline of 1.1% on the same day, making it one of the worst-performing markets [1] - The Thai baht weakened concurrently with the stock market downturn [1]

Group 1: Political Risks in Southeast Asia - Recent protests in Indonesia and political turmoil in Thailand have heightened political risks in two major emerging markets in Southeast Asia [2][3] - Indonesia's stock index fell by 1.5%, the largest drop among global indices, while Thailand's market declined by 1.1% on the same day [2] - Protests in Indonesia were triggered by rising living costs and inequality, leading President Joko Widodo to cancel a trip to China [2][3] Group 2: Economic Implications - Analysts express a cautious outlook on Indonesia, citing rising political risks and a potential increase in market risk premiums [3] - The protests were sparked by outrage over lawmakers receiving housing allowances nearly ten times the minimum wage in Jakarta, exacerbated by tax increases and layoffs [3][5] - In contrast, analysts are more optimistic about Thailand, noting its cheaper valuations and potential economic stimulation from a new prime minister [4] Group 3: Market Reactions - In August, Indonesia attracted a net foreign capital inflow of $676 million, while Thailand experienced an outflow of $670 million [4] - Year-to-date, Thailand's stock market has declined by approximately 10%, while Indonesia's market has risen by about 11% prior to the unrest [4] - The protests have led to significant unrest, with at least four reported deaths and widespread property damage across major cities in Indonesia [5][6] Group 4: Social and Economic Context - Over the past decade, Indonesia has maintained a stable economic growth rate of around 5%, but layoffs in manufacturing have hurt the shrinking middle class [6] - Official data indicates that over 42,000 workers were laid off in the first half of the year, a 32% increase from the previous year [6] - A report highlighted that the wealth of Indonesia's 50 richest individuals equals the total wealth of 50 million Indonesians, illustrating stark economic inequality [6]

大家好，今晚简单关注一下海外发生的黑天鹅事件。 印尼"黑天鹅" 周末，印尼抗议活动加剧以及泰国最新的领导层动荡，正在推高东南亚两大新兴股市的政治风险。 上周五，印尼股指下跌1.5%，在各国股指中跌幅居首。泰国股市同日下跌1.1%，同样位列表现最差的市场之一。 由于针对生活成本上升和不平等的致命骚乱，总统普拉博沃取消了访华行程。抗议者甚至把矛头指向印尼财政部长和部分 议员的住所。与此同时，在泰国，总理佩通坦·西那瓦被取消资格后，政客们正争夺新一届政府领导权。 这一系列阻力恰逢全球部分资金因估值走低和潜在的降息前景，开始考虑转向东南亚市场之时。 新加坡的分析师John Foo表示："印尼的政治风险会上升，股市的风险溢价也会提高。我们对印尼持低配立场，因为估值没 有反映经济中的潜在问题。" 8月份印尼股市吸引了6.76亿美元的外资净流入，而泰国则被撤出6.7亿美元。今年迄今，泰国股市下跌约10%，而印尼股 市则上涨约11%，在骚乱前曾创下历史新高。 新加坡Aletheia Capital分析师Nirgunan Tiruchelvam表示，尽管当前局势动荡，但在货币政策可能放松以及市场估值优势的 支撑下，这并未"改变 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the political unrest in Indonesia and Thailand, which has led to significant declines in their stock markets, raising concerns about investment risks in Southeast Asia [3][5][6]. Group 1: Indonesia's Political Unrest - Indonesia's stock index fell by 1.5%, the largest drop among global markets, due to escalating protests against rising living costs and inequality [3]. - Protests were triggered by the revelation that members of parliament receive housing allowances of 50 million Indonesian Rupiah, nearly ten times the minimum wage in Jakarta [10]. - The protests have resulted in at least four deaths and widespread violence, with government buildings and properties being attacked [12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Analysts express concerns that the political risks in Indonesia will increase, leading to a higher risk premium in the stock market [6]. - Despite the turmoil, Indonesia attracted a net foreign capital inflow of $676 million in August, while Thailand experienced an outflow of $670 million [8]. - Indonesia's stock market has seen an 11% increase this year prior to the unrest, while Thailand's market has declined by approximately 10% [8]. Group 3: Comparison with Thailand - Analysts are more optimistic about Thailand's market, citing cheaper valuations and potential economic stimulation from a new prime minister [7]. - Thailand has been plagued by political infighting for decades, which has hindered its economic growth compared to neighboring countries [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury bond market is experiencing a mixed performance, with the 2-year bond yield dropping over 5 basis points while the 30-year bond yield approaches 4.95%, nearing the 5% mark [1] - There is a growing concern among investors regarding President Trump's recent strong stance against the Federal Reserve, which may undermine the central bank's independence and increase inflation expectations, impacting the dollar and the bond market [1] - The current political risk score for the U.S. is 41.79, close to the average of 28 emerging market countries at 44, indicating that the U.S. is becoming more similar to emerging markets in terms of risk [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury issued $70 billion in 5-year bonds with a winning yield of 3.724%, the lowest since September last year, and lower than July's 3.983% [2] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the auction was 2.36, slightly better than the previous month's 2.31 but still below the recent average of 2.37 [2] - The indirect bid ratio, which reflects foreign demand, was 60.5%, up from 58.3% last month but significantly below the recent average of 69.3% [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. long-term Treasury market is signaling unease, with the 30-year Treasury yield approaching 5%, the highest level since July, reflecting investor concerns over future inflation risks and potential impacts on the Federal Reserve's independence [1] - The yield curve has steepened, indicating that long-term rates are rising faster than short-term rates, although the 30-year yield closed at 4.913%, nearly unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Analysts highlight that recent actions by Trump, including the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook and criticism of Fed Chair Powell, are raising fears about the Fed's independence and inflation expectations, drawing parallels to emerging market countries like Turkey [1][2] Group 2 - Political risks in the U.S. are perceived to be accelerating towards a "emerging market" model, characterized by increased political uncertainty and market instability, with the current political risk score for the U.S. at 41.79, nearing the average of 28 emerging market countries [2] - The correlation between U.S. political risk and the 30-year Treasury yield has strengthened since 2018, with the dollar index weakening since Trump's tariff announcements in April [2] - Despite rising political risks, the U.S. stock market remains resilient, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posting gains, indicating a potential immunity to political uncertainty [3] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market's performance suggests that it may be less affected by political risks, with a phenomenon where higher risks correlate with rising S&P 500 values, attributed to the market's diversity and depth [3] - Market participants believe that Trump's interventions in the Fed and other institutions are narrowing the gap between the U.S. and emerging market risks, although a complete loss of Fed independence is still considered unlikely [3]