2026.01. 21 达沃斯小镇（记者陈玺宇摄） 会场内：公开发言中的克制与张力 本文字数：2416，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈玺宇 当地时间21日，素有"世界经济风向标"之称的世界经济论坛年会（达沃斯论坛）进入第三天。美国 总统特朗普计划于当天下午到场，并将发表特别讲话。与往年不同的是，在正式现身之前，特朗普已 经成为本届达沃斯论坛被讨论得最早、也最密集的话题。 美国现任总统亲自出席达沃斯并不多见。历史上，美国总统极少亲自前往达沃斯，直到特朗普在 2018年和2020年两次出席，此前一次到场的美国总统，还是世纪之交的比尔·克林顿。也正因如此， 在美国历任总统中，特朗普被视为乐于走进达沃斯的人物之一。 从主会场的公开发言，到闭门会议、社交场合中的私下交流；从政界、商界人士对政策走向的判断， 到欧洲普通民众的直接情绪反应……特朗普在达沃斯的"存在感"，并不仅来自他即将到来的行程本 身，而更像是一种提前笼罩会议的现实背景。 在论坛开幕前一天，记者搭乘世界经济论坛主办方安排的接驳车，从苏黎世机场前往达沃斯。途中， 车辆在高速路上被警方临时拦停，多名警察登车，对乘客逐一检查护照。需要说明的是，能够登 ...

在正式现身之前，特朗普已经成为本届达沃斯被讨论得最早、也最密集的话题。 当地时间21日，素有"世界经济风向标"之称的世界经济论坛年会（达沃斯论坛）进入第三天。美国总统 特朗普计划于当天下午到场，并将发表特别讲话。与往年不同的是，在正式现身之前，特朗普已经成为 本届达沃斯论坛被讨论得最早、也最密集的话题。 美国现任总统亲自出席达沃斯并不多见。历史上，美国总统极少亲自前往达沃斯，直到特朗普在2018年 和2020年两次出席，此前一次到场的美国总统，还是世纪之交的比尔·克林顿。也正因如此，在美国历 任总统中，特朗普被视为乐于走进达沃斯的人物之一。 从主会场的公开发言，到闭门会议、社交场合中的私下交流；从政界、商界人士对政策走向的判断，到 欧洲普通民众的直接情绪反应……特朗普在达沃斯的"存在感"，并不仅来自他即将到来的行程本身，而 更像是一种提前笼罩会议的现实背景。 在论坛开幕前一天，记者搭乘世界经济论坛主办方安排的接驳车，从苏黎世机场前往达沃斯。途中，车 辆在高速路上被警方临时拦停，多名警察登车，对乘客逐一检查护照。需要说明的是，能够登上这趟接 驳车的，原本就只限于受邀参会的嘉宾、媒体人员和工作人员，且在登车前已完 ...

Core Insights - Demand for Japan's 5-year government bond auction was weaker than the average level over the past 12 months, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.08 compared to 3.17 in December and a 12-month average of 3.54 [1][2] - The yield on the 5-year government bond has risen to 1.615%, the highest level since its first issuance in 2000, following reports of potential early elections by the Prime Minister [1] - The Japanese yen and government bonds both declined, indicating a resurgence of "high market trading" amid increasing political risks [1] Financial Risks - Investors are closely monitoring fiscal risks, as the dissolution of the House of Representatives could solidify the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's position and pave the way for more stimulus measures [2] - The exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level since July 2024, raising the possibility of an earlier interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the 2026 midterm elections in the U.S. will focus on economic success and price reduction, with President Trump emphasizing the decline in energy and gasoline prices [1] - Trump warns of potential government shutdown risks and urges Senate Republicans to abolish the filibuster rule, which requires 60 votes to proceed to a vote [1] - The U.S. Congress is currently in recess, but significant challenges await when it reconvenes on January 6, particularly regarding the temporary funding bill that supports government operations until January 30, 2026 [1] Group 2 - There is a prevailing sense of frustration in Congress due to the inability of Republicans and Democrats to reach a consensus on budget issues, particularly concerning the Affordable Care Act [2] - Political risks are highlighted, with potential for significant asset price volatility until at least the end of January, possibly extending into spring [2] - Disagreements exist not only on healthcare but also on defense, education, and transportation funding, exacerbating the risk of continued legislative gridlock in January [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese companies are increasingly selling off assets in Europe as a strategic response to rising political risks, exemplified by the recent sale of Fosber Group by Dongfang Precision to an American firm for €774 million, despite the company being highly profitable and a significant revenue contributor [5][12][34]. Group 1: Company Actions - Dongfang Precision sold its Italian subsidiary Fosber Group, a leader in corrugated cardboard production, to the American Brookfield Group for €774 million (approximately 6.3 billion RMB) [12][27]. - The sale occurred at a time when Fosber was generating nearly 70% of Dongfang Precision's revenue and experiencing significant profit growth [10][23]. - The decision to sell was influenced by the political climate in Europe, particularly following the "Anshi Incident" in the Netherlands, which raised concerns about potential government interventions in foreign-owned companies [16][21]. Group 2: Market Context - The sale reflects a broader trend of Chinese companies reassessing their investments in Europe due to increasing political risks and regulatory scrutiny [39][41]. - The transaction allowed Dongfang Precision to realize a significant return on investment, with the asset appreciating over seven times since its acquisition for €74 million a decade ago [29]. - The move is seen as a strategic shift for Dongfang Precision, redirecting funds into critical domestic sectors such as high-end power and robotics, aiming to reduce reliance on European manufacturing [32][34]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The political climate in Europe is causing a retreat of Chinese investments, with companies like Ningbo Huaxiang facing harsher consequences and opting for "tail-cutting" strategies [36][39]. - The exit of Chinese firms could lead to significant disruptions in European supply chains, particularly in the automotive sector, where companies like Volkswagen and BMW rely on Chinese suppliers [41][43]. - The European market may struggle to maintain its manufacturing capabilities without the technological and financial support from Chinese investments, raising concerns about the long-term viability of its industrial base [43][45].

Group 1 - Nvidia's market value dropped by 1 trillion RMB in one day due to political tensions arising from a Missouri politician's demand for the U.S. government to "collect debts" from China, specifically targeting $25 billion [2][12] - The recent political maneuvering comes at a time when U.S.-China relations were showing signs of improvement, with discussions on tariffs and fentanyl regulation progressing [4][6] - The Missouri Attorney General's actions are seen as a political strategy to pressure President Trump into taking a stance on China, potentially jeopardizing the fragile thaw in relations [8][14] Group 2 - Nvidia, along with other U.S. companies closely tied to China, faces significant risks from unpredictable political actions, which are perceived as more damaging than competition [16][20] - The company's CEO has indicated that sales of chips to China could drop to zero in the coming quarters, highlighting the potential loss of a significant market as China's AI chip market is projected to grow to $50 billion [18][20] - The political climate is creating a paradox where the Trump administration acknowledges the need for cooperation with China to strengthen the U.S. economy, while internal party conflicts threaten to undermine this cooperation [20][22] Group 3 - The ongoing political disputes and demands for reparations from China could lead to further instability in U.S.-China relations, impacting the technology sector and broader economic conditions [22][24] - The situation illustrates the dangers of using foreign relations as a political tool, which could ultimately harm American businesses and the economy [24][25] - The volatility in U.S.-China relations, driven by internal political dynamics, poses a continuous risk to market stability and investor confidence [25][27]

Core Viewpoint - Recent actions by China regarding rare earth exports and technology controls have sparked global attention, indicating a significant shift in international trade rules and geopolitical dynamics [1][3] Group 1: China's Position in Rare Earth Market - China is the largest producer of rare earth elements, controlling approximately 90% of high-purity rare earth production capacity, which underscores its substantial influence in the market [1] - The recent export control measures by China encompass raw materials, technology, and equipment across multiple segments of the industry, even affecting products processed in third countries, leading to a comprehensive "blockade" strategy [1] Group 2: Netherlands' Actions and Implications - The Dutch government has taken measures against China's Wingtech Technology, freezing assets of its subsidiary, ASML, in 30 global entities, signaling a provocative stance against China and a violation of international trade norms [3] - The actions taken by the Netherlands are seen as a response to the broader U.S.-EU strategy to curb China's technological advancements, indicating a shift in how commercial issues are being politicized [3][5] Group 3: Impact on International Investment Environment - The intertwining of commercial and political issues is reshaping the international investment landscape, potentially leading to increased "political risks" for Chinese companies' overseas assets [5] - The current global economic recovery phase makes the protection of Chinese assets abroad a pressing concern for both political and business leaders, especially in high-tech sectors [5] Group 4: China's Strategic Response - China is expected to utilize legal, diplomatic, and public opinion strategies to defend its rights, challenging arbitrary actions taken under the guise of "national security" [7] - Emphasizing technological independence and internal development of the supply chain is crucial for China to counter Western technological blockades [7] - China should actively participate in reshaping international rules to ensure fair and equitable development for all nations, moving away from historically unfavorable multilateral trade rules [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is facing downward pressure due to political uncertainty in France and a dovish shift in European Central Bank interest rate expectations [1][2] Group 1: Currency Movements - The Euro to USD exchange rate is currently at 1.1572, with a slight increase of 0.01% [1] - The Euro to GBP exchange rate is under pressure, testing the support level of 0.8675, influenced by ongoing political uncertainty in France [1] - The Euro has significantly retraced from a peak of 0.8724 last Friday, indicating a notable decline [1] Group 2: Political Factors - President Macron's refusal to resign amid a new government facing a vote of no confidence is exacerbating market concerns [1] - The political deadlock in France is contributing to the downward pressure on the Euro [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The European Central Bank's shift towards a dovish stance is adding to the pressure on the Euro [1] - There are expectations that the Bank of England may further cut interest rates, with concerns that UK inflation may decline slower than anticipated [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators for the Euro show significant downward pressure, with the Bollinger Bands expanding and moving averages trending downwards [2] - Initial resistance levels are identified at 1.1630 and 1.1731, while support levels are at 1.1528 and 1.1504 [2]

Core Insights - The recent political turmoil in France has led to a significant decline in market sentiment towards the euro, marking the highest level of pessimism among options traders in months [1][3] - Despite a recovery in the French stock and bond markets, the euro is on track for its worst weekly performance in a year, with options pricing indicating the bleakest outlook since June [1] - The current market movements represent one of the most notable trends in the eurozone in recent years, with a significant bearish re-pricing occurring in the risk reversal indicator [1] Market Reactions - The resignation of the French Prime Minister has contributed to market instability, prompting investors to closely monitor President Macron's appointment of a successor [3] - There is hope that the new appointment will stabilize the market and facilitate the passage of the budget in parliament [3]

Political Landscape - Japan's Komeito party intends to leave the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [1] - The reason for the withdrawal is the insufficient explanation regarding political donation issues [1] - Nomura's Japan research highlights uncertain coalition negotiations and political risks [2]