Group 1 - The long-term bond market is experiencing significant volatility due to rising government borrowing demands and expanding deficits, leading to higher yield requirements from investors [1][4] - The UK has become a focal point of this turmoil, with the Chancellor's proposed £50 billion welfare cuts being rejected, raising concerns about the government's fiscal discipline and resulting in a sharp increase in 30-year UK bond yields [1][4] - The sensitivity of long-term bonds to fiscal risks is attributed to their illiquid market, where even minor sell-offs can lead to substantial price drops and yield spikes [3][4] Group 2 - Various governments, including the US, Japan, and Australia, are reconsidering their issuance strategies for long-term bonds in light of high interest rates and fiscal concerns [4][6] - Japan's recent announcement to reduce the issuance of long-term bonds has led to a temporary stabilization in demand for its 30-year bonds, although yields still rose due to global market pressures [6][7] - Investors are increasingly favoring short-term bonds over long-term ones due to the heightened sensitivity of the latter to fiscal and political risks, as well as the demand for higher yields as compensation for these risks [7]

野村在最新研报中表示，日本政府最初设定的“完全取消美国关税”的目标已经无法实现，在谈判中难以获得政治上的完胜。考虑到美国并无意完全取消对特定国家的关税，且其要求包含了进口美国大米等政治敏感项目，任何协议的达成都很可能推迟到日本参议院选举（7月20日）之后。最终的解决方案可能是双方在互相升级（例如美国加征关税）后，再做出妥协并各自宣布胜利。需要警惕日本面临的两大核心政治风险，一是日本显著增加其国防预算作为对美国的让步，二是日本政府谈判失利导致执政党自民党在参议院选举受挫。野村预测日本股市将继续承压，而债券市场可能获得支撑。 ...

花旗：泰国的政治风险可能已经见顶。投资者应将佩通坦的停职视为减少了联合政党内部摩擦造成的政治僵局，并降低了街头抗议的压力。佩通坦的停职出乎花旗的基本预期，但政府在临时总理的领导下理论上仍在运转。假设联合政府组成没有变动，临时总理和内阁应该能够通过年度预算。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):泰国宪法法院7月1日宣布，受理有关调查总理佩通坦是否存在违宪行为的请愿书，并决定暂停佩通坦行使总理职权，直至法院作出最终裁决，并要求佩通坦在15天内提交声明。 ...

政治风暴中的科技巨头 美联储政策与科技股狂欢 在更宏观的层面上，科技股整体受到美联储降息预期的提振。然而，特斯拉的表现尤为引人注目，其市 值单周跌幅曾达15%的剧烈波动，凸显了这家公司独特的市场定位和投资者情绪对其的特殊反应。 上周，一场由推特引发的政治风暴席卷华尔街。埃隆·马斯克公开批评特朗普政策的言论，如同一颗重 磅炸弹投入资本市场，导致特斯拉市值在短短几天内蒸发1500亿美元。这场冲突揭示了现代企业面临的 新挑战：在政治立场与商业利益之间寻找平衡变得前所未有的困难。 当科技巨头的掌舵人涉足政治领域，其言论的影响力已远超个人范畴。马斯克的批评不仅代表个人观 点，更被市场解读为特斯拉公司可能面临政策风险的信号。投资者用脚投票的反应，展示了资本市场对 政治风险的极度敏感。 冲突降温与市场修复 戏剧性的是，本周特朗普表态"愿与马斯克对话"后，这场政治冲突迅速降温。市场情绪随之回暖，特斯 拉股价开始收复失地。这一现象揭示了资本市场对政治不确定性的厌恶程度，以及对企业领袖政治立场 稳定性的强烈需求。 与此同时，特斯拉在技术领域的突破性进展——Robotaxi项目的实质性推进，为股价反弹提供了双重动 力。技术利好成功 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has faced significant volatility due to political tensions and deteriorating fundamentals, leading to a downgrade in sales expectations from analysts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Tesla's stock price dropped 14% in a single day, erasing gains made earlier in the year, and has returned to 2022 levels [2]. - Baird Equity Research downgraded Tesla from "outperform" to "neutral," citing excessive uncertainties across multiple fronts [2][3]. - Among 18 Wall Street analysts, only 10 currently have a buy rating on Tesla, with the stock down 26% year-to-date [3]. Group 2: Sales Expectations and Political Risks - Goldman Sachs significantly lowered Tesla's Q2 delivery forecast from 410,000 to 365,000 units, below the consensus of 417,000 [2][5]. - Analysts express concern over the deteriorating relationship between Elon Musk and former President Trump, which could impact Tesla's operational benefits [3][4]. - Political risks are compounded by potential policy changes that could halve Tesla's operating profits, with estimated losses of $1.2 billion from the end of consumer EV tax credits and $2 billion from the cancellation of carbon tax credits [3][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - Sales of Tesla vehicles have shown a divergence based on political affiliations, with red counties seeing increased sales while blue counties have declined [5]. - In Europe, Tesla faces weak sales and resistance from buyers due to Musk's political stance, while competition in China intensifies [5][6]. - Baird analysts have also adjusted 2026 delivery forecasts to reflect the impact of canceled EV tax credits, predicting only 6,000 robotaxis will be operational despite Musk's optimistic projections [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook and Optimism - Despite the negative outlook, some analysts maintain a relatively optimistic view on Tesla's long-term prospects, citing potential opportunities in robotaxi and robotics technology [8]. - Wolfe Research suggests that the impact of the proposed budget bill may not be as severe as predicted by others, indicating some resilience in Tesla's business model [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The public feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump has escalated, significantly impacting Tesla's stock price and market perception, highlighting the intersection of politics and business in the electric vehicle industry [3][4][6]. Group 1: Musk and Trump's Feud - The conflict began on June 3, when Musk publicly opposed Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill," which aimed to raise the U.S. debt ceiling by $4 trillion [7][10]. - Musk criticized the bill as a "disgusting abomination" that would increase the national debt by $2.5 trillion, urging his followers to pressure Congress against it [12][13]. - Trump expressed disappointment in Musk, suggesting that Musk's opposition stemmed from self-interest regarding electric vehicle policies [17][18]. Group 2: Impact on Tesla - Tesla's stock experienced significant volatility, with a peak drop of 14.26%, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $150 billion during the feud [19][35]. - The electric vehicle market is projected to grow by 25% in 2024, yet Tesla's market share has declined from 70% in 2021 to below 50% [36]. - Tesla's sales revenue fell by 71% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the lowest level in three years, amid a challenging political environment [36][37]. Group 3: Broader Industry Implications - The feud has led to a rise in anti-Tesla sentiment, with incidents of vandalism against Tesla service centers and charging stations [39]. - The political dynamics have raised concerns about the future of Tesla, as the company warned that changing political sentiments could adversely affect product sales [37][38]. - The ongoing conflict illustrates the risks associated with intertwining business interests with political affiliations, as Musk's political actions have seemingly backfired on Tesla [42][44].

智通财经5月8日电，韩国表示贸易谈判和政治风险带来不确定性，韩国将每周举行会议讨论市场和经 济。 ...