投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 临近年末资金交投热情下降，但 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 政策利好预期逐渐发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅反弹。沪深京三市全天成交额 15617 亿元，较上日缩量 1219 亿元。 目前股指仍然处于震荡整理阶段，市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon iron: ★☆★ [1] Report's Core View - The steel market shows a mixed trend with supply and demand changes and policy expectations affecting the price movement [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose supply-demand relationship and is expected to fluctuate [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by downstream demand and supply, with short-term price trends showing some characteristics [4][5] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are influenced by factors such as raw material prices and demand, and their price trends need further observation [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to rise in shock today. The apparent demand for thread decreased, production declined significantly, and inventory continued to decrease. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both decreased, and inventory decreased slowly with pressure remaining [2] - Iron ore production decreased, downstream demand was insufficient, and steel mills continued to operate at a loss. There is a high possibility of further blast furnace production cuts and supply pressure will gradually ease [2] - Real estate investment continued to decline significantly, infrastructure growth slowed down, manufacturing PMI improved marginally, and overall domestic demand remained weak. Steel exports declined from their high levels [2] - Spot prices remained firm during the off-season, and there were still expectations of favorable policies at the macro level. The futures market is expected to continue its shock upward trend with possible fluctuations [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened slightly today. Global shipments were strong, the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou was sent, domestic arrivals remained high, and port inventory continued to increase and approached the annual high [3] - The apparent demand for steel weakened, production declined further, and iron ore demand is expected to weaken further [3] - The macro environment was positive, and there were expectations of policy support ahead of the December important meeting. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] Coke - The coke futures market showed a strong shock trend today. There were expectations of downstream replenishment, and prices rebounded slightly [4] - Coking profits were average, daily production increased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Downstream procurement was mainly on-demand, and traders' purchasing willingness was average [4] - The supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream iron ore production decreased seasonally, and demand for raw materials remained resilient. Steel mills had a strong willingness to lower raw material prices [4] - The coke futures price was at a premium, and prices are expected to continue to rebound in the short term [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market showed a strong shock trend today. There were expectations of downstream replenishment, and prices rebounded [5] - Coking coal production increased slightly, spot auction transactions were average, and transaction prices mainly decreased. Terminal inventory decreased slightly, and total coking coal inventory decreased slightly month-on-month [5] - The supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream iron ore production decreased seasonally, and demand for raw materials remained resilient. Steel mills had a strong willingness to lower raw material prices [5] - The coking coal futures price was at a discount, and prices are expected to be dragged down in the short term due to high Mongolian coal imports [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market rose in shock today. Affected by the futures market rebound, manganese ore spot prices increased [6] - The follow-up impact of Ghana's shipping volume needs to be monitored. There are structural problems in manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. If Ghana's supply decreases significantly, prices may rise in the short term [6] - Iron ore production decreased seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slowly [6] - Silicon manganese supply decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and the support at the bottom needs to be observed [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures market rose in shock today. There were increased expectations of coal supply guarantee, which led to expectations of lower electricity costs and blue carbon prices [7] - Iron ore production rebounded to a high level, export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact was small. Metal magnesium production increased month-on-month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand remained resilient [7] - Silicon iron supply decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and the support at the bottom needs to be observed [7]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年12月04日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅鉄 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日盘面继续震荡走高。本周螺纹表需继续回落，产量大幅下滑，库存继续去化。热卷供需双降，库存缓慢下降，压力仍有待 缓解。铁水产量回落，下游承接能力不足，钢厂整体延续亏损状态，后期高炉继续减产可能性较大、供应压力逐步缓解，关注 唐山等地环保限产持续性。从下游行业看，她产投资继续大幅下滑，基建增速持续回落、制造业PM ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view for the financial futures stock index sector is that the short - term trend of stock indices is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, with a mid - term view of oscillation and an overall reference view of range - bound oscillation [1][5]. - The core logic is that although the 11 - month manufacturing PMI is still below the boom - bust line, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand, the expectation of policy benefits is strong, especially looking forward to the incremental policy benefits from the December Central Economic Work Conference. Overseas, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has risen, the risk of the AI asset investment bubble has decreased, and market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled. The support for stock indices is strong due to the unchanged expectation of policy benefits and the trend of long - term funds entering the market [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is slightly stronger, and the overall view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is the fermentation of policy benefit expectations versus the rising willingness of funds to take profits [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is slightly stronger, the mid - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that the stock indices rebounded oscillatingly yesterday. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1889.4 billion yuan, an increase of 291.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but still below the boom - bust line, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. The expectation of policy benefits is strong, and the support for stock indices is strong [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策利好预期发酵 VS 资金了结意 愿上升 | 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡反弹，其中 IM 与 IC 表现偏强。股市全市场成交额 1.59 万亿元，较 上日成交额缩量 1257 亿元。最新公布的 10 月宏观数据边际走弱，消费增速放缓，固投增速回落，规 上企业利润同比增速回落，社融信贷数据走弱等，这说明宏观内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来政 策面利好预期仍较强。加上长线资金入市趋势不变，股指的支撑力量较强。叠加近期海外美联储降息 预期上升，AI 资产投资泡沫风险降温，风险偏好企稳，股指触底回升。不过 12 月中央经济工作会议 之前政策面增量信息较少，股指上行驱动力有所不足 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term market game has intensified, and the stock index will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. In the medium - term, it is strong. Although the stock index is in a short - term oscillation period due to the game between policy expectation and profit - taking, in the long run, the policy expectation and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market strongly support the stock index [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is the game between the willingness of funds to take profits and the expectation of policy benefits [1]. b) Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and slightly pulled back. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1722.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 20 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock index is in a short - term oscillation period due to the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of profitable funds. In November, the incremental policy signals weakened, and the willingness of profitable funds to take profits increased, so the stock index entered a technical consolidation stage. However, in the long - term, policy expectations and capital inflow trends support the stock index [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is that it will be mainly in an interval oscillation, with intense short - term games. The medium - term view is that it is strong. The overall reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. In the short term, the incremental policy signals in November weaken, and as the stock index approaches the previous high, the profit - taking intention of profitable funds rises, so there is a need for technical consolidation. In the long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market strongly support the upward trend of the stock index [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | Oscillation | Strong | Bullish | Interval Oscillation | The game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is interval oscillation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Yesterday, all stock indexes oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1930.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Currently, the stock index is in a short - term oscillation period due to the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of profitable funds. In the short term, there is a need for technical consolidation. In the long term, as long as the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market remain unchanged, the upward trend of the stock index will continue [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 11 月 17 日） 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 强势 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 资金止盈意愿与政策利好预期相 互博弈 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周各股指均呈现震荡整理的走势，上周五股指高位回落大幅收跌。随着昨日股指反弹至 前期高点附近，叠加最新公布的国内投资消费数据走弱以及海外 AI 科技股票降温，部分投资者止 盈意愿上升，股指技术性回调。目前政策利好预期与资金净流入股市趋势共同构成股 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with the mid - term view being strong and the intraday view being bullish. Policy利好 expectations and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market form strong support for the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index, but in the short term, the profit - taking intention of funds and the weakening of policy incremental signals lead to the need for the stock index to consolidate technically [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is volatile, the mid - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and policy利好 expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the mid - term view is strong, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the stock indexes rebounded oscillating yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2065.7 billion yuan, an increase of 100.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Policy利好 expectations and capital inflow into the stock market support the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index. The policy will stabilize the macro - demand expectation and support technological innovation, benefiting the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes. In the short term, the policy incremental signals are weakening, and the profit - taking intention of funds is rising, so the stock index needs to consolidate technically, and the Shanghai Composite Index may oscillate around 4000 points [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, with the mid - term view being strong and the intraday view being bullish. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. In the short term, the incremental policy signals weaken, and the profit - taking intention of profitable funds rises with the increase in stock valuations, so the stock index needs to consolidate through oscillation. In the long run, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market support the stock index [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the mid - term view is strong, and the reference view is interval oscillation. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated slightly. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.1944 trillion yuan, an increase of 174.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market is in an oscillating market with mixed long and short factors. The fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds are in a game, limiting both the upward and downward momentum of the stock index. In the long run, policy benefit expectations and capital inflow trends support the stock index, especially as next year is the beginning of the "14th Five - Year Plan". However, in the short term, the stock index needs to consolidate through oscillation due to the weakening of incremental policy signals and the rise in profit - taking intention [5]