Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic coking coal and coke markets operated strongly. Affected by the pull - up of market sentiment and coal mine over - production inspections, coke enterprises successively raised prices twice this week, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 110 yuan/ton, and the third price increase was implemented on Friday, with the intention to continue raising prices next week. The online transactions continued to rise, and the offline transactions were in short supply. Traders were actively purchasing, and the market was still in an upward trend. Due to the large increase in coal prices, coking was in the red, and some coke enterprises with low inventories limited production. The downstream terminal demand was good, steel mill overhauls and production cuts were not obvious, and steel mill profits were good, with a high acceptance of raw material price increases in the short term. The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures. The coking coal trading volume during the night session increased rapidly, and after a brief rise at the opening, it fell sharply, along with a slump in related industrial product futures. This slump cooled the over - heated market, and market participants will gradually return to rationality. Further price increases require the introduction of more - than - expected macro - policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the progress of China - US trade negotiations. [2][4][35] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The domestic coking coal and coke markets operated strongly this week. Affected by the pull - up of market sentiment and coal mine over - production inspections, coke enterprises successively raised prices twice this week, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 110 yuan/ton, and the third price increase was implemented on Friday, with the intention to continue raising prices next week. [4] 2. Macro and Industrial News - The Chinese and US sides agreed that Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden from July 27th to 30th to hold economic and trade talks with the US. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (for Comment)", aiming to improve the standards for identifying low - price dumping and regulate market price order. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of promoting large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade - ins. - From January to June, 16,500 old urban residential communities across the country started renovation, and 6 regions had a start - up rate of over 80%. The national plan for 2025 is to start renovating 25,000 old urban residential communities. - There were multiple price adjustment announcements for coke in different markets such as Xingtai, Shandong, and Tangshan this week. [6][7] 3. Fundamental Analysis - The online transactions continued to rise, and the offline transactions were in short supply. Traders were actively purchasing, and the market was still in an upward trend. Due to the large increase in coal prices, coking was in the red, and some coke enterprises with low inventories limited production. The downstream terminal demand was good, steel mill overhauls and production cuts were not obvious, and steel mill profits were good, with a high acceptance of raw material price increases in the short term. [2] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures. The coking coal trading volume during the night session increased rapidly, and after a brief rise at the opening, it fell sharply, along with a slump in related industrial product futures. This slump cooled the over - heated market, and market participants will gradually return to rationality. Further price increases require the introduction of more - than - expected macro - policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the progress of China - US trade negotiations. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profits, also mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. [35]

Group 1 - The call to address "involution" competition is becoming more widespread, with multiple government departments and industry associations advocating against it, expanding from sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles to include e-commerce and food delivery industries [1] - The focus of addressing "involution" competition is increasingly concentrated on common issues such as disorderly competition, severe homogenization, and low-price competition within industries, as well as local government behaviors that lead to unfair competition and project redundancy [1][2] Group 2 - The policy mechanisms to combat "involution" competition are becoming more refined, with recent amendments to laws such as the Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the Price Law draft targeting low-price disorderly competition, which will enhance the legal regulatory framework [2] - Experts highlight that a significant cause of "involution" is the imbalance between supply and demand, necessitating coordinated efforts on both sides, including support for technological innovation and improved market access to prevent excessive entry and low-quality competition [3] - Strengthening market regulation and creating a cleaner competitive environment are essential for consumer confidence, with recent laws aimed at promoting fair competition and protecting rights, which will encourage private sector investment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is focusing on enhancing the collaborative development between state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private enterprises, aiming to boost economic vitality and industrial competitiveness through various strategic initiatives [1] Group 1: Collaborative Development - The NDRC will improve the system and mechanism for SOE and private enterprise collaboration [1] - The focus will be on addressing issues of excessive competition, expanding cooperation in industrial and supply chains, and promoting technological innovation [1] Group 2: Governance and Internationalization - Efforts will be made to enhance corporate governance and international operational services [1] - The initiative aims to leverage the strengths of different ownership types to achieve mutual development [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - For both short - term, medium - term, and intraday, the view on both coking coal (JM 2509) and coke (J 2509) is to take a bullish approach [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all upward, with a bullish investment view [1]. - **Core Logic**: Since early June, there have been news of safety and environmental production cuts in coal mines. After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July and Xi Jinping's inspection in Shanxi, the expectation of anti - involution in the domestic coal industry has been fermenting. The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association and some enterprises have also held meetings to address involution - style competition, highlighting the current imbalance in coal supply and demand. Under the policy of "addressing involution - style competition", the long - term fundamentals of coking coal are expected to improve, driving up futures prices [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all upward, with a bullish investment view [1]. - **Core Logic**: After the first round of price increase for coke spot was implemented on the 17th, the second round of price increase started on the 21st, and the futures market has improved the spot market sentiment. The commencement of the 1.2 - trillion - yuan Yarlung Zangbo River super - hydropower project will boost the terminal demand for cement and steel in China. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of the anti - involution theme, the overall market sentiment for coke is optimistic, and the main contract remains strong [6].

Group 1 - The regulatory authorities are intensifying efforts to address "involution" competition, emphasizing the need for orderly competition and the exit of outdated production capacity [1][4] - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting highlighted the importance of optimizing supply chains and improving product quality, which may lead to a more favorable market environment for industries like steel and non-ferrous metals [1][4] - The focus on regulating "involution" competition is expected to stimulate market enthusiasm, particularly in the black series commodities sector, which may see a new upward trend [1][2] Group 2 - The domestic coke market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics due to regulatory measures aimed at optimizing supply [2] - China Xuyang Group, the largest independent coke producer, reported a revenue of 17.642 billion yuan from its coke business in 2024, despite being in a down cycle [2] - Xuyang Group's production capacity reached 23.8 million tons in 2024, with plans to increase annual capacity to 30 million tons, indicating a strategic focus on quality and advanced production [2][3] Group 3 - Xuyang Group's business scale and profitability are expected to recover if the overall market environment for black series commodities improves, enhancing the visibility and certainty of the company's growth [3] - The company has been actively repurchasing its shares, spending over 116 million HKD to buy back 46.421 million shares since late May, indicating management's confidence in future business recovery [3] - The combination of improving fundamentals and increased share buybacks may lead to a stronger stock price performance for Xuyang Group, encouraging a more positive investor sentiment [4]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to implement measures to stabilize employment and the economy by the end of June, which are part of a broader strategy to respond to external environmental changes and align with central government directives [1][2] - Key initiatives include supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding effective investment, and creating a stable development environment [1][2] - The NDRC has allocated nearly 500 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support major projects, including infrastructure and urban development, with a complete project list expected by the end of June [2][3] Group 2 - The NDRC aims to enhance funding efficiency by establishing a direct and rapid mechanism for special long-term bond funds and implementing loan interest subsidies for equipment updates [3] - There is a focus on addressing "involution" in competition, where companies engage in unhealthy practices such as selling below cost, which distorts market mechanisms and disrupts fair competition [3] - The NDRC will work with relevant departments to promote healthy industrial development through innovation, local constraints, optimizing industrial layout, and strengthening market regulation [3][4] Group 3 - The NDRC is set to expand low-altitude economic applications, including low-altitude tourism and consumer drones, while ensuring safety and risk control [4] - The initiative will involve collaboration with local governments and industry management to regulate and promote orderly development in the low-altitude sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is implementing a series of measures aimed at stabilizing employment and the economy, with most initiatives expected to be in place by the end of June. These measures are part of a broader strategy to respond to external environmental changes and to fulfill the decisions made by the central government [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The NDRC's initiatives include support for employment, stabilization of foreign trade, promotion of consumption, effective investment expansion, and the creation of a stable development environment [1][2]. - The "Two Heavy" policies focus on major strategic implementations and key area security capability construction, with nearly 500 billion yuan allocated for long-term special bonds to support significant projects [2][3]. - The "Two New" policies involve the replacement of consumer goods and large-scale equipment updates, with over 160 billion yuan allocated for the first two batches of funding, and an additional 140 billion yuan expected [2][3]. Group 2: Funding Efficiency and Market Regulation - The NDRC aims to improve funding efficiency by establishing a direct and rapid mechanism for special bond funds and implementing loan interest subsidies for equipment updates [3]. - There is a focus on addressing "involution" in competition, where companies engage in unhealthy practices such as selling below cost, which distorts market mechanisms and disrupts fair competition [3]. - The NDRC plans to enhance market regulation, promote industrial transformation, and eliminate local protectionism to ensure a healthy industrial development environment [3]. Group 3: Low-altitude Economy Development - The NDRC is working with relevant departments to expand low-altitude economic applications, including low-altitude tourism and consumer drones, while ensuring safety and risk control [4]. - The initiative includes strengthening safety governance and holding local governments and industry management accountable for regulatory compliance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is focused on stabilizing employment and the economy through the implementation of various policies and measures, including the promotion of the Private Economy Promotion Law and addressing issues related to "involution" in competition [1][3][4]. Group 1: Employment and Economic Stability - The NDRC plans to accelerate the implementation of existing policies and introduce new measures to promote high-quality development, with most initiatives expected to be in place by the end of June [1]. - The NDRC will maintain a proactive approach to policy research and reserve, ensuring timely implementation of necessary measures [1]. Group 2: Investment and Foreign Capital - The NDRC aims to enhance foreign investment confidence by revising the encouraged foreign investment industry catalog and developing policies to support reinvestment by foreign enterprises [2]. - The commission will expedite the implementation of significant foreign investment projects and continue to provide favorable conditions for multinational companies operating in China [2]. Group 3: Addressing Involution in Competition - The NDRC acknowledges the structural issues arising from the transformation of traditional industries and the emergence of new industries, which have distorted market mechanisms and disrupted fair competition [3]. - The commission will implement targeted measures to address these structural contradictions and promote healthy industrial development and quality upgrades [3]. Group 4: Implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law - The Private Economy Promotion Law took effect on May 20, with the NDRC focusing on legal promotion, policy implementation, and addressing concerns of private enterprises [4]. - The NDRC has planned 53 policy measures across seven areas to support the law's implementation, including enhancing the social credit system and addressing issues related to overdue payments to private enterprises [4].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is accelerating the implementation of policies aimed at stabilizing employment and the economy, with most measures expected to be in place by the end of June [1] - The NDRC is focusing on addressing issues related to excessive competition in the market, particularly during the transition period of the economy where new industries and business models are emerging [1] - Structural problems in traditional industries are being addressed to ensure fair competition and market mechanisms are not distorted [1] Group 2 - By the end of June, the NDRC aims to finalize the list of all "two heavy" construction projects for the year and ensure high standards in their implementation [2] - From January to April, the NDRC approved 27 fixed asset investment projects with a total investment of 573.7 billion, focusing on sectors such as energy, agriculture, forestry, water conservancy, and high technology [2] - In April alone, 5 fixed asset investment projects were approved with a total investment of 377.1 billion [2]