Group 1 - The issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated since April, with July reaching a record high for the year at 616.936 billion yuan, an increase of 89.842 billion yuan from the previous month [1] - The cumulative issuance of new special bonds in the first half of the year reached 2.16 trillion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 45%, supporting major project construction in key areas and maintaining resilience in infrastructure investment growth [1] - The market expects the pace of new special bond issuance to accelerate in the third quarter, with over 1.6 trillion yuan of quota available for use from August to December [1] Group 2 - The fiscal policy this year has been more proactive, with expectations for continued improvement in investment funding and project support due to the effects of existing policy combinations [2] - Significant government bond supply is expected to provide clear support for social financing scale, with net financing amounts projected to reach 1.29 trillion yuan and 1.41 trillion yuan in July and August, respectively [2] - The acceleration of new special bond issuance is anticipated to boost infrastructure investment growth to between 8% and 9% in the second half of the year [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first half of 2025, highlighting a notable increase in fiscal spending and the implications for future fiscal policy and economic recovery [2][6][76]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while expenditure was 141,271 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][6][76]. - The broad fiscal revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and broad fiscal expenditure increased by 17.6%, with both metrics improving compared to May [7][78]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first six months was 47.8%, higher than the five-year average of 47.4%, while the expenditure completion rate was 44.4%, slightly below the average of 45.1% [7][78]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is attributed to government debt financing, with a broad fiscal deficit of -5.3 trillion yuan in June, the highest level for the same period historically [12][76]. - As of July 13, 2025, the net financing of government bonds reached approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 59.4%, significantly higher than the 51.6% in 2024 [12][76]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance of new special bonds remains slow, with a total issuance scale of 2.2 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 50.6%, which is lower than the same period in 2022 and 2023 [18][77]. - Land transfer revenue in June increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating a recovery, although the overall real estate sales growth remains sluggish [18][77]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in June, while general fiscal revenue saw a decline of 0.3% [31][78]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June, driven by the recovery in land transfer revenue and accelerated spending from central special bonds [66][78]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of high fiscal expenditure growth in the second half of 2025 will depend on the recovery of tax revenue and land transfer income, as well as the potential for continued funding from policy financial tools [24][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The foundation of economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and domestic demand restoration still requires policy support. Attention should be paid to the policy signals released by the Politburo meeting in July [1]. - The property market shows a weak performance, and the supply - demand sides are both weak. In the second half of the year, more active property - easing policies may be needed to release the demand for improved housing [2][3]. - The commodity futures market is generally rising, with black - series, new - energy materials, and building materials leading the gains. The "anti - involution" policy strengthens the supply - side contraction expectation and drives the industry valuation repair [7][106]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand: New home sales increase month - on - month, and automobile consumption shows marginal improvement - New home sales: The transaction area of 20 - city commercial housing increased by 22% month - on - month and decreased by 7% year - on - year as of the week ending July 25. Second and third - tier cities had larger increases in new home sales, while first - tier cities decreased by 7% [13]. - Second - hand home sales: Among the monitored key cities, Beijing and Shanghai's second - hand home transaction areas increased by 4% and 3% month - on - month respectively, while Shenzhen and Hangzhou decreased by 13% and 15% [33]. - Automobile consumption: The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 22.4% month - on - month and 14.3% year - on - year as of the week ending July 25. The national movie box office increased by 39.0% month - on - month, but was weaker than the same period last year. The national migration scale index decreased by 2.2% month - on - month [42]. 3.2 Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong - Mid - and upstream: As of the week ending July 25, the Tangshan blast furnace operating rate remained at 80.4%, the rebar operating rate rose by 1.0 pct to 43.9%, the PTA operating rate remained at 80.8%, the polyester filament operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased by 0.8 pct to 92.1%, and the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 4.0 pct to 28.8% [49]. - Downstream: The operating rates of automobile all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month, but the semi - steel tire operating rate was still at a seasonal high [49]. 3.3 Investment: Apparent consumption of rebar improves, and rebar prices continue to rise - Rebar: As of the week ending July 25, the apparent consumption of rebar increased by 5.0% month - on - month to 217 tons, and the rebar price increased by 4.3% month - on - month to 3433.2 yuan/ton [64]. - Cement: As of the week ending July 25, the cement price decreased by 1.9% month - on - month to 105.9 points. As of the week ending July 18, the cement shipping rate increased by 0.8 pct to 40.9%, and the cement inventory ratio increased by 0.8 pct to 62.3% [64]. 3.4 Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices decline - Export: As of the week ending July 25, port container throughput increased by 2.6% month - on - month, higher than the same period last year. The CCFI composite index decreased by 3.2% month - on - month. The BDI index continued to rise, increasing by 10.9% month - on - month [73]. - Import: The CICFI composite index decreased by 0.5% month - on - month [6]. 3.5 Prices: Agricultural product prices decline, and black - series products lead the gains - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased by 0.2% month - on - month as of the week ending July 25. Pork, egg, and vegetable prices increased, while fruit prices decreased [7]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 4.2% month - on - month. Brent crude oil spot price decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, COMEX gold futures price increased by 1.3% month - on - month, and LME copper spot price increased by 2.4% month - on - month [7]. - Commodity futures: Polysilicon futures settlement price increased by 17.5%, industrial silicon futures settlement price increased by 9.0%, coking coal futures settlement price increased by 28.9%, coke futures settlement price increased by 13.8%, glass futures settlement price increased by 21.1%, and PVC futures settlement price increased by 6.5% [106]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year exceeds 94% - Next week (July 28 - August 1): The planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 5532 billion yuan, with a net financing of 4345 billion yuan. Among them, treasury bonds are planned to issue 1800 billion yuan with a net financing of 1600 billion yuan, local bonds 3372 billion yuan with a net financing of 2431 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds 360 billion yuan with a net financing of 315 billion yuan [110]. - Issuance progress: As of July 25, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds was 94.1%, that of new general bonds was 64.7%, and that of new special bonds was 59.0%. The cumulative net issuance progress of treasury bonds was 57.7%, and that of policy - bank bonds was 68.6% [8][114][116]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - On July 21, the "Housing Rental Regulations" was announced to regulate the housing rental market [118]. - On July 23, a subsidy project for elderly care services for moderately and severely disabled elderly was launched [119]. - On July 23, the tax policy for goods in Hainan Free Trade Port at the time of full - island customs closure was released [120]. - On July 25, it was reported that the national general public budget expenditure in the first half of 2025 was 141271 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [121]. - On July 22, Chengdu planned to cancel housing sales restrictions in batches and increase housing provident fund loan support [123]. - On July 24, Zhongshan introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of the real - estate market [124].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first half of 2025, highlighting a notable increase in fiscal spending and the implications for future fiscal policy and economic recovery [2][6][76]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while the expenditure was 141,271 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][6][76]. - The broad fiscal revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and the broad fiscal expenditure increased by 17.6%, both significantly higher than the previous month [2][7][78]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first six months was 47.8%, above the five-year average of 47.4%, while the expenditure completion rate was 44.4%, slightly below the average of 45.1% [2][7][78]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is attributed to government debt financing, with a broad fiscal deficit reaching -5.3 trillion yuan, the highest level for the same period in previous years [12][24][76]. - As of July 13, 2025, the net financing of government bonds was approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 59.4%, significantly higher than the 51.6% in the same period of 2024 [12][24][76]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance of new special bonds remains slow, with a total issuance scale of 2.2 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 50.6%, which is lower than the 94.4% and 60.7% in the same periods of 2022 and 2023, respectively [3][18][77]. - Land transfer revenue in June 2025 increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating a recovery, although the overall real estate sales growth remains sluggish [3][18][77]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in June 2025, while general fiscal revenue decreased by 0.3% [25][31][78]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June 2025, driven by the recovery in land transfer revenue and accelerated spending from central special bonds [48][66][78]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of high fiscal expenditure growth in the second half of 2025 will depend on the recovery of tax revenue and land transfer income, as well as the potential for continued funding support from policy financial tools [24][77].

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 7.08% as of July 6, 2025, up from 6.00% on June 29, marking an increase of 1.08%[2] - Domestic flight executions increased to 14,400 flights in the first five days of July, a year-on-year increase of 3%[8] - The operating rate of asphalt plants rose to 32.7% as of July 9, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%[15] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a year-on-year increase of 1% as of July 6, down from 3% previously, and June's total was 15%[8] - The sales area of commercial residential properties in 67 cities decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first 11 days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June[3] - The land premium rate fell to 4.88% as of July 6, down from 5.47% in June[9] Price Movements - Resource prices continued to rise, with Shanxi thermal coal prices increasing by 1.4%, and rebar prices in Shanghai rising by 1.9%[46] - The national average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.3% as of June 30, with first-tier cities down by 0.2%[47] - The overall price index for agricultural products rose, with vegetable prices increasing by 1.8% and fruit prices by 2.1%[46] Debt and Interest Rates - New special bond issuance accelerated, with 2.39 trillion yuan issued this year, achieving 54.3% of the annual target, compared to 39.3% last year[54] - As of July 11, 2025, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were 1.3702%, 1.5292%, and 1.6653%, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.4bps, 3.63bps, and 2.2bps from the previous week[67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate market shows weak supply and demand, and more aggressive easing policies may be needed in the second half of the year. The strength of policy implementation will significantly affect the real - estate market and investment. Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts strongly. There are fluctuations in consumption, investment, trade, and prices, and the issuance progress of interest - rate bonds is relatively fast. [1][2][3][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Demand - New home sales declined both month - on - month and year - on - year, with significant drops in first - and second - tier cities. The real - estate market's supply and demand are weak, and more aggressive easing policies are needed to release the demand for improved housing. If policy strength exceeds expectations, the decline in real - estate sales and investment may slow down; otherwise, the market may remain at a low level. Second - hand home sales also decreased month - on - month. Automobile consumption declined marginally, while the national migration scale index increased, and the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased. [11][41] 3.2 Production - In the mid - and upstream sectors, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan decreased, while the PTA operating rate increased. In the downstream sectors, the operating rates of automobile all - steel and semi - steel tires improved, and the semi - steel tire operating rate remained at a seasonal high. The infrastructure construction start - up showed marginal improvement. [48] 3.3 Investment - The apparent consumption of rebar decreased, but its price increased. The price of cement decreased, and the cement shipment rate and inventory ratio also declined. [64] 3.4 Trade - In terms of exports, port container throughput decreased, and the overall container shipping price declined, with the European route rising and the US West and East routes falling. The BDI index increased. In terms of imports, the container shipping price continued to decline. [75] 3.5 Prices - Agricultural product prices showed a marginal improvement, with pork and vegetable prices rising and egg and fruit prices falling. International crude oil prices generally increased, while the price of gold slightly declined. [86][96] 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next week (July 14 - 18), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 500.2 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 10.6 billion yuan. As of July 11, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds exceeded 90%, and the issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds was 58.3% and 50.6% respectively. [106][109][112] 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - The central bank increased its gold reserves for the 8th consecutive month in June. The State Council issued a notice to support stable employment. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3500 points. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1. The Ministry of Finance adjusted the assessment of state - owned commercial insurance companies. Some cities adjusted housing - related policies, including housing provident fund policies and housing consumption supply optimization. [118][119][120][121][122][123]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index was at 6.00% as of June 29, 2025, down 1.63 percentage points from 7.63% on June 22, but still at a high level[7] - Domestic flight operations increased to 14,300 flights in the first five days of July, up 4% year-on-year, compared to 12,800 flights in June, which was up 0.8% year-on-year[9] - The land premium rate rebounded to 7.8% in the week of June 29, with a three-week average of 4.3%, compared to 4.93% in May[12] Real Estate and Trade - Real estate sales in 67 cities showed a year-on-year decline of 30% in the first four days of July, worsening from a 17.6% decline in June and a 13% decline in May[10] - Container throughput at Chinese ports fell to a year-on-year decline of 3.1% as of June 29, down from 4.3% the previous week[25] - Direct trade flow between China and the U.S. saw a 1.8% year-on-year decline in the number of container ships departing for the U.S. as of July 5, down from 3.3% at the end of June[26] Price Trends - Prices for coal and real estate construction materials rose due to "anti-involution" trends, with Shanxi thermal coal prices increasing by 0.5% and rebar prices in Shanghai rising by 2.9%[45] - The domestic commodity price index fell by 0.5%, while the overseas commodity price index rose by 0.6%[45] Debt and Interest Rates - As of June 30, 2025, new special bonds issued reached 2.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 50.5% of the annual target, higher than 38.5% in the same period last year[54] - The funding rates for DR001, DR007, and R007 decreased by 5.43bps, 27.46bps, and 43.2bps respectively compared to June 27[67]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation across various sectors, including demand, production, investment, trade, prices, and interest - rate bonds. It shows that the real - estate market has a complex performance with new home sales having a mixed trend and second - hand home sales mostly declining. The automotive consumption is warming up, industrial production is stable with strong infrastructure construction, and there are specific changes in investment, trade, prices, and the issuance progress of interest - rate bonds [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand - New home sales: The weekly new home sales increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending July 4, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities was 3.498 million square meters, up 2% month - on - month and down 8% year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. There were differences among different city - tiers, with second - tier cities seeing a large increase in new home sales [1][11]. - Second - hand home sales: The transaction volume of second - hand homes in key cities mostly decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. As of the week ending July 4, the transaction areas of second - hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou decreased by 10%, 4%, 5%, and 18% month - on - month respectively, and 14%, 7%, 9%, and 22% year - on - year respectively [28][30]. - Automotive consumption: It continued to warm up. As of the week ending July 4, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 18.4% month - on - month, and were basically the same as the same period last year. The national movie box office increased by 17.0% month - on - month, but was weaker than the same period last year. The national migration scale index increased by 6.6% month - on - month, while the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month - on - month [39]. 2. Production - Mid - upstream: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces and rebar decreased, while the operating rate of PTA, polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and petroleum asphalt plants increased, indicating a possible marginal improvement in infrastructure construction [2][46]. - Downstream: The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires of automobiles decreased, but the absolute value of semi - steel tires was still higher than the same period in previous years. The trade - in subsidy policy may support the production side in the short term [2]. 3. Investment - Rebar: The apparent consumption of rebar improved, with the price increasing by 0.9% month - on - month to 3230.6 points, and the apparent consumption increasing by 2.3% month - on - month to 2.25 million tons as of the week ending July 4 [63]. - Cement: The cement price decreased by 1.4% month - on - month to 111.5 points as of the week ending July 4. As of the week ending June 27, the cement shipping rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 40.8%, and the cement storage ratio decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.8% [63]. 4. Trade - Export: The port container throughput decreased by 0.7% month - on - month as of the week ending July 4, but was higher than the same period last year. The CCFI composite index decreased by 1.9% month - on - month. The freight rates of European and Southeast Asian routes increased, while those of the US West and East routes decreased. The BDI index continued to decline, dropping 10.3% month - on - month [77]. - Import: The container shipping price decreased, and the CICFI composite index was 685.4 points, a slight decrease of 0.6% month - on - month [77]. 5. Prices - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. The pork price increased by 0.8% month - on - month, while the prices of eggs, vegetables, and fruits decreased by 1.8%, 0.5%, and 0.8% month - on - month respectively [5][89]. - PPI: Commodity prices were differentiated. The metal price index increased, the Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 0.3% month - on - month, the Brent crude oil spot price decreased by 1.8% month - on - month, the COMEX gold futures price increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the LME copper spot price increased by 0.6% month - on - month [5][96]. 6. Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next - week issuance plan: From July 7 to July 11, the disclosed issuance of interest - rate bonds is 268.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 58.7 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 billion yuan with a net financing of - 80.1 billion yuan, the issuance of local bonds is 231.8 billion yuan with a net financing of 107.8 billion yuan, and the issuance of policy - bank bonds is 37 billion yuan with a net financing of 31 billion yuan [107]. - Issuance progress: As of July 4, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds this year was 1.8246 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 91.2%. The issuance of new general bonds was 452 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 56.5%. The issuance of new special bonds was 2.1635 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 49.2% [6][109][112]. 7. Policy Week Observation - Central Financial and Economic Commission's 6th meeting: On July 1, Xi Jinping chaired the meeting to discuss promoting the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [118]. - Central Bank's operation: In June, the central bank did not conduct open - market treasury bond transactions, marking the sixth consecutive month of no such operations [119]. - China's PMI data: In June, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion of the economic prosperity level [120]. - US "Big and Beautiful" Act: On July 3 local time, the US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" Act, which is expected to increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [121]. - Trump's tariff statement: On July 4 local time, Trump said that countries will start paying new tariffs on August 1, but did not name specific countries [122]. - Nanjing's housing provident fund policy: Nanjing adjusted its housing provident fund policy, including expanding the scope of off - site loans, relaxing the conditions for off - site housing purchase withdrawals, and extending the maximum loan term for existing housing [123]. - Hubei's real - estate policy: On July 3, Jingmen, Hubei issued policies to stabilize the real - estate market, including promoting the sales of underground parking spaces and commercial and office buildings, and promoting the spot - house sales from January 1, 2026 [124].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the accelerated issuance of local government bonds in China during the first half of the year, with a total issuance of approximately 5.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 57% [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Overview - In the first half of the year, local government bonds were issued at a rapid pace, with new bonds accounting for approximately 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43%, while refinancing bonds reached about 2.9 trillion yuan, growing by approximately 73% [1][2]. - More than half of the funds from local government bonds were used for refinancing old debts, which alleviated current fiscal pressures and allowed local governments to focus more on development and public welfare [2]. Group 2: Fund Allocation and Project Focus - The newly issued special bonds, totaling around 2.2 trillion yuan, were primarily directed towards infrastructure and public welfare projects, with significant allocations to municipal and industrial park infrastructure (28%), transportation projects (19%), and land reserve projects (11%) [3]. - The government has allowed special bonds to be used for land reserve projects to stabilize the real estate market, leading to increased funding in this area [3]. Group 3: Debt Management and Financial Health - The average issuance term of local government bonds has extended to 16.4 years, with an average interest rate of 1.95%, lower than the previous year's rate of 2.29%, which helps reduce financing costs [4]. - As of May 2025, the total local government debt stood at 51.25 trillion yuan, remaining within the limit of 57.99 trillion yuan, indicating that debt risks are generally manageable [4]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to expedite the issuance of long-term special bonds to support economic stability and growth, with expectations for increased issuance in the third quarter [4].

Group 1 - The issuance of local government bonds has significantly accelerated, with over 4 trillion yuan issued this year, of which nearly 40% are new special bonds [1] - The new special bonds are primarily directed towards major project construction, with 16.457 billion yuan in new local bonds issued [1] - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has reached 108.348 billion yuan, accounting for 7.75% of the new special bond funds [1] Group 2 - Land reserve activities are concentrated in economically stable regions, with third and fourth-tier cities showing high participation rates, accounting for nearly 75% of acquisition amounts [2] - More than half of the local bonds issued this year are for "borrowing new to repay old," primarily to replace hidden debts, with 82.8% of the planned total already disclosed [2] - The issuance of new local bonds is expected to accelerate, with June's issuance projected at around 1 trillion yuan [3] Group 3 - Infrastructure investment remains a key focus for the funding from new special bonds, with a significant emphasis on construction projects in the real estate sector [3] - The issuance pace of local government bonds is anticipated to increase in the second quarter, with an estimated total of 1.2 trillion yuan for the entire quarter [3]