General Information - Report title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 34, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635 [3] New Special Bond Issuance - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new special bonds reached 69.9% [4] - This week, new special bonds worth 239.3 billion yuan were issued, a week - on - week increase of 220.2 billion yuan [4] - As of August 24, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in August was 29.86 billion yuan [5] New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bonds worth 9.5 billion yuan were issued, a week - on - week decrease of 20.8 billion yuan [7] - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new general bonds reached 73.2% [9] - As of August 24, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in August was 4.71 billion yuan [24] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 208.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 222.5 billion yuan [12] - As of August 24, the issuance progress of new local bonds reached 70.4% [12] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 352.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 138 billion yuan [16] - As of August 24, the net financing progress of treasury bonds reached 73.2% [18] Combined Progress - As of August 24, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance reached 72.0% [20]

Group 1 - In the first quarter of this year, local government bond issuance exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, with new special bond issuance surpassing 600 billion yuan, accounting for over 40% of the total [1][2] - The issuance pace of local bonds has significantly accelerated since February, with monthly issuance figures increasing from approximately 384.45 billion yuan in January to 629.45 billion yuan in March [1][2] - The total number of local bonds issued in the first quarter was 303, with a total scale of about 1.573 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The issuance of new special bonds has also seen a notable increase since February, with January, February, and March figures at 56.78 billion yuan, 346.59 billion yuan, and 230.76 billion yuan respectively [2] - Compared to the same period last year, the issuance of new special bonds is lower, primarily due to the impact of a 1 trillion yuan national bond issued at the end of last year, which reduced the urgency for special bond issuance this year [2] - The funds raised from special bonds are primarily directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, public services, and other key areas, indicating a focus on maintaining high levels of infrastructure investment [2][3] Group 3 - The new local government special debt limit for this year is set at 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan from the previous year, aimed at supporting local governments in addressing key areas [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of improving the efficiency of government investment and its role in driving overall social investment [3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to February reached 5.0847 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, indicating a positive trend in infrastructure investment [3] Group 4 - The infrastructure sector is expected to remain a primary focus for special bond funding, particularly for major national strategies and projects, to effectively utilize special bonds for counter-cyclical investment stimulation [4] - The issuance pace of local bonds and new special bonds is anticipated to remain steady, supported by the previously issued national bonds [5] - If the long-term special national bonds are issued in large quantities in the second quarter, it may lead to a slowdown in the issuance of ordinary national bonds and new special bonds to avoid pressure on the funding market [5]

Core Viewpoint - Local governments in China have significantly increased their borrowing this year, primarily through the issuance of local government bonds, to stabilize the economy and mitigate risks [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Utilization - In the first seven months of this year, approximately 67,037 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, representing a year-on-year increase of about 60% [1]. - More than half of the bond proceeds are allocated to repay old debts, while nearly half is invested in major project construction [1]. - Of the 67,037 billion yuan issued, about 34,000 billion yuan were refinancing bonds, a 65% increase year-on-year, and approximately 33,000 billion yuan were new bonds, up about 55% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Debt Management and Financial Relief - The average interest cost of replaced hidden debts has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, significantly alleviating repayment pressure and releasing fiscal space for development and public welfare [2]. - New bonds are primarily used for major public welfare projects, with 28,000 billion yuan of new special bonds issued in the first seven months, a 57% increase year-on-year, accounting for over 60% of the total annual issuance of 44,000 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Project Funding Allocation - Nearly 20,000 billion yuan of new special bond funds were allocated for project construction, with approximately 26.37% directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 17.63% towards transportation infrastructure, and 13.03% towards land reserve [3]. - A notable increase in land reserve special bonds issuance, exceeding 2,600 billion yuan, aims to recover idle land and stabilize the real estate market [3]. Group 4: Government Initiatives and Future Projections - The Central Political Bureau has called for accelerated issuance and utilization of government bonds to enhance funding efficiency, with expectations to complete the issuance of 44,000 billion yuan in new special bonds by the end of October [4]. - Research forecasts a local bond issuance scale of 35,000 billion yuan in the third quarter, with a net financing scale of 22,000 billion yuan [5]. Group 5: Debt Management and Safety - The State Council has relaxed restrictions on the use of special bond funds, allowing for greater flexibility and autonomy in project funding, while maintaining overall debt levels within safe limits [6]. - As of June 2025, the total local government debt is 51.95 trillion yuan, below the debt ceiling of approximately 57.99 trillion yuan, with an average remaining maturity of 10.2 years and an average interest rate of 2.93% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in local government borrowing in China, primarily through the issuance of local government bonds, to stabilize the economy and manage risks amid financial pressures [3][4]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - In the first seven months of this year, approximately 67,037 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, representing a year-on-year increase of about 60% [3]. - The bond issuance in June and July exceeded 10,000 billion yuan each, indicating a rapid acceleration in local government borrowing [3]. - Of the 67,037 billion yuan issued, about 34,000 billion yuan were refinancing bonds, which are used to repay old debts, while approximately 33,000 billion yuan were new bonds for major project construction [4]. Group 2: Debt Refinancing and Management - Refinancing bonds are primarily used for "borrowing new to repay old" debts, addressing the significant fiscal imbalance faced by local governments [5]. - The central government has implemented a plan to replace hidden debts with 10 trillion yuan in local government bonds, with 6 trillion yuan allocated for refinancing existing hidden debts [5]. - As of the end of July, nearly 19,000 billion yuan of the 20,000 billion yuan quota for hidden debt replacement had been issued, leading to a reduction in average interest costs by over 2.5 percentage points [6]. Group 3: Use of New Bonds - New bonds are mainly allocated for public welfare projects to stabilize investment and address shortfalls in the economy [6][9]. - In the first seven months, approximately 28,000 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, accounting for over 60% of the annual target of 44,000 billion yuan [6]. - A significant portion of the new special bonds, about 8,000 billion yuan, is designated for resolving existing hidden debts and addressing overdue payments to enterprises [6]. Group 4: Project Funding Allocation - Nearly 20,000 billion yuan of new special bond funds were directed towards project construction, with 26.37% allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 17.63% to transportation infrastructure, and 13.03% to land reserve projects [9]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has surged, exceeding 2,600 billion yuan, aimed at recovering idle land and stabilizing the real estate market [9]. Group 5: Future Expectations and Debt Management - The Central Political Bureau has called for accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds to enhance funding efficiency [10]. - Experts predict that local government bond issuance will reach 35,000 billion yuan in the third quarter, with a net financing scale of 22,000 billion yuan [11]. - As of June 2025, the total local government debt was 51.95 trillion yuan, remaining below the debt ceiling of approximately 57.99 trillion yuan, indicating that local debt risks are generally manageable [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Local governments in China have significantly increased their borrowing this year to stabilize the economy and mitigate risks, with a record issuance of local government bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Utilization - In the first seven months of this year, approximately 67,037 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, marking a year-on-year increase of about 60% [1]. - More than half of the bond proceeds are allocated to repay old debts, while nearly half is invested in major project construction [1]. - Of the 67,037 billion yuan issued, about 34,000 billion yuan were refinancing bonds, up 65% year-on-year, and approximately 33,000 billion yuan were new bonds, increasing by about 55% [1][2]. Group 2: Refinancing and Debt Management - Refinancing bonds are primarily used for "borrowing new to repay old" debts, addressing the significant fiscal imbalance faced by local governments [2]. - The central government initiated a plan to replace hidden debts with local government bonds, with a total of 10 trillion yuan allocated for this purpose, of which 6 trillion yuan is through refinancing bonds [2]. Group 3: Project Funding and Special Bonds - New bonds are mainly directed towards major public welfare projects to stabilize investment and address shortfalls [3]. - In the first seven months, approximately 28,000 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, accounting for over 60% of the total annual issuance target of 44,000 billion yuan [3]. - A significant portion of the new special bonds, around 8,000 billion yuan, is earmarked for resolving hidden debt issues and settling overdue payments to enterprises [3][4]. Group 4: Infrastructure Investment - About 26.37% of the new special bond funds are allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, while 17.63% is directed towards transportation infrastructure [10]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has surged, with over 2,600 billion yuan issued in the first seven months, aimed at recovering idle land and stabilizing the real estate market [10]. Group 5: Future Expectations and Debt Management - The central government has emphasized accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds to enhance funding efficiency [11]. - Experts predict that local governments will complete the issuance of 44,000 billion yuan in new special bonds by the end of October, with a focus on increasing project initiation rates [11]. - As of June 2025, the total local government debt is projected to be 51.95 trillion yuan, remaining below the debt ceiling of approximately 57.99 trillion yuan [12].

Core Viewpoint - Local government bond issuance has reached a record high in the first seven months of the year, with a total of 6.7 trillion yuan, primarily aimed at refinancing old debts and funding major projects [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Purpose - In the first seven months, approximately 3.4 trillion yuan of refinancing bonds were issued, marking a 65% year-on-year increase, while new bonds totaled about 3.3 trillion yuan, up approximately 55% [1][2]. - More than half of the bond proceeds are allocated to repay old debts, with nearly half directed towards major project construction [1]. - The issuance of special bonds has been significant, with about 2.8 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued, accounting for over 60% of the annual target of 4.4 trillion yuan [2]. Group 2: Debt Management and Financial Impact - The average interest cost of replaced hidden debts has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, significantly easing repayment pressure and releasing fiscal space for development and public welfare [2]. - Special new bonds, totaling approximately 755 billion yuan, are specifically aimed at resolving hidden debt issues and addressing overdue payments to enterprises [2]. Group 3: Project Funding Allocation - Of the nearly 2 trillion yuan allocated for project construction from new special bonds, approximately 26.37% is directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 17.63% towards transportation infrastructure, and 13.03% towards land reserve projects [8]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has surged, exceeding 260 billion yuan, aimed at recovering idle land and stabilizing the real estate market [8]. Group 4: Future Expectations and Efficiency - The central government has called for accelerated bond issuance and improved fund utilization efficiency, with expectations that local governments will complete the issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan in new special bonds by the end of October [9]. - The State Council has significantly relaxed the restrictions on the use of special bond funds, allowing for greater flexibility and autonomy in project funding [10]. - As of June 2025, the total local government debt is projected to be 51.95 trillion yuan, remaining below the debt ceiling of approximately 57.99 trillion yuan, indicating manageable debt risk [10].

Group 1 - In July, the issuance of new special bonds reached 616.936 billion yuan, an increase of 89.842 billion yuan from the previous month, marking a new high for the year [1] - In the first half of the year, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds amounted to 2.16 trillion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 45%, with a noticeable acceleration in the pace of issuance [3] - The acceleration of new special bond issuance is crucial for providing sufficient funding for major project construction, with over 1.6 trillion yuan available for use from August to December [4] Group 2 - The new special bond issuance will significantly support infrastructure investment, with funds primarily directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and public services [5] - The timely availability of special bond funds helps alleviate the funding pressure on infrastructure projects, playing an important role in stabilizing investment and growth [5] - The acceleration of new special bond issuance is expected to provide strong support for the rebound of infrastructure investment growth in the second half of the year, benefiting related industries such as steel, cement, and construction machinery [5]

Group 1 - The issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated since April, with July reaching a record high for the year at 616.936 billion yuan, an increase of 89.842 billion yuan from the previous month [1] - The cumulative issuance of new special bonds in the first half of the year reached 2.16 trillion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 45%, supporting major project construction in key areas and maintaining resilience in infrastructure investment growth [1] - The market expects the pace of new special bond issuance to accelerate in the third quarter, with over 1.6 trillion yuan of quota available for use from August to December [1] Group 2 - The fiscal policy this year has been more proactive, with expectations for continued improvement in investment funding and project support due to the effects of existing policy combinations [2] - Significant government bond supply is expected to provide clear support for social financing scale, with net financing amounts projected to reach 1.29 trillion yuan and 1.41 trillion yuan in July and August, respectively [2] - The acceleration of new special bond issuance is anticipated to boost infrastructure investment growth to between 8% and 9% in the second half of the year [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first half of 2025, highlighting a notable increase in fiscal spending and the implications for future fiscal policy and economic recovery [2][6][76]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while expenditure was 141,271 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][6][76]. - The broad fiscal revenue in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and broad fiscal expenditure increased by 17.6%, with both metrics improving compared to May [7][78]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first six months was 47.8%, higher than the five-year average of 47.4%, while the expenditure completion rate was 44.4%, slightly below the average of 45.1% [7][78]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is attributed to government debt financing, with a broad fiscal deficit of -5.3 trillion yuan in June, the highest level for the same period historically [12][76]. - As of July 13, 2025, the net financing of government bonds reached approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 59.4%, significantly higher than the 51.6% in 2024 [12][76]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance of new special bonds remains slow, with a total issuance scale of 2.2 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 50.6%, which is lower than the same period in 2022 and 2023 [18][77]. - Land transfer revenue in June increased by 22% year-on-year, indicating a recovery, although the overall real estate sales growth remains sluggish [18][77]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in June, while general fiscal revenue saw a decline of 0.3% [31][78]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June, driven by the recovery in land transfer revenue and accelerated spending from central special bonds [66][78]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of high fiscal expenditure growth in the second half of 2025 will depend on the recovery of tax revenue and land transfer income, as well as the potential for continued funding from policy financial tools [24][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The foundation of economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and domestic demand restoration still requires policy support. Attention should be paid to the policy signals released by the Politburo meeting in July [1]. - The property market shows a weak performance, and the supply - demand sides are both weak. In the second half of the year, more active property - easing policies may be needed to release the demand for improved housing [2][3]. - The commodity futures market is generally rising, with black - series, new - energy materials, and building materials leading the gains. The "anti - involution" policy strengthens the supply - side contraction expectation and drives the industry valuation repair [7][106]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand: New home sales increase month - on - month, and automobile consumption shows marginal improvement - New home sales: The transaction area of 20 - city commercial housing increased by 22% month - on - month and decreased by 7% year - on - year as of the week ending July 25. Second and third - tier cities had larger increases in new home sales, while first - tier cities decreased by 7% [13]. - Second - hand home sales: Among the monitored key cities, Beijing and Shanghai's second - hand home transaction areas increased by 4% and 3% month - on - month respectively, while Shenzhen and Hangzhou decreased by 13% and 15% [33]. - Automobile consumption: The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 22.4% month - on - month and 14.3% year - on - year as of the week ending July 25. The national movie box office increased by 39.0% month - on - month, but was weaker than the same period last year. The national migration scale index decreased by 2.2% month - on - month [42]. 3.2 Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong - Mid - and upstream: As of the week ending July 25, the Tangshan blast furnace operating rate remained at 80.4%, the rebar operating rate rose by 1.0 pct to 43.9%, the PTA operating rate remained at 80.8%, the polyester filament operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased by 0.8 pct to 92.1%, and the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 4.0 pct to 28.8% [49]. - Downstream: The operating rates of automobile all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month, but the semi - steel tire operating rate was still at a seasonal high [49]. 3.3 Investment: Apparent consumption of rebar improves, and rebar prices continue to rise - Rebar: As of the week ending July 25, the apparent consumption of rebar increased by 5.0% month - on - month to 217 tons, and the rebar price increased by 4.3% month - on - month to 3433.2 yuan/ton [64]. - Cement: As of the week ending July 25, the cement price decreased by 1.9% month - on - month to 105.9 points. As of the week ending July 18, the cement shipping rate increased by 0.8 pct to 40.9%, and the cement inventory ratio increased by 0.8 pct to 62.3% [64]. 3.4 Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices decline - Export: As of the week ending July 25, port container throughput increased by 2.6% month - on - month, higher than the same period last year. The CCFI composite index decreased by 3.2% month - on - month. The BDI index continued to rise, increasing by 10.9% month - on - month [73]. - Import: The CICFI composite index decreased by 0.5% month - on - month [6]. 3.5 Prices: Agricultural product prices decline, and black - series products lead the gains - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased by 0.2% month - on - month as of the week ending July 25. Pork, egg, and vegetable prices increased, while fruit prices decreased [7]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 4.2% month - on - month. Brent crude oil spot price decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, COMEX gold futures price increased by 1.3% month - on - month, and LME copper spot price increased by 2.4% month - on - month [7]. - Commodity futures: Polysilicon futures settlement price increased by 17.5%, industrial silicon futures settlement price increased by 9.0%, coking coal futures settlement price increased by 28.9%, coke futures settlement price increased by 13.8%, glass futures settlement price increased by 21.1%, and PVC futures settlement price increased by 6.5% [106]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year exceeds 94% - Next week (July 28 - August 1): The planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 5532 billion yuan, with a net financing of 4345 billion yuan. Among them, treasury bonds are planned to issue 1800 billion yuan with a net financing of 1600 billion yuan, local bonds 3372 billion yuan with a net financing of 2431 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds 360 billion yuan with a net financing of 315 billion yuan [110]. - Issuance progress: As of July 25, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds was 94.1%, that of new general bonds was 64.7%, and that of new special bonds was 59.0%. The cumulative net issuance progress of treasury bonds was 57.7%, and that of policy - bank bonds was 68.6% [8][114][116]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - On July 21, the "Housing Rental Regulations" was announced to regulate the housing rental market [118]. - On July 23, a subsidy project for elderly care services for moderately and severely disabled elderly was launched [119]. - On July 23, the tax policy for goods in Hainan Free Trade Port at the time of full - island customs closure was released [120]. - On July 25, it was reported that the national general public budget expenditure in the first half of 2025 was 141271 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [121]. - On July 22, Chengdu planned to cancel housing sales restrictions in batches and increase housing provident fund loan support [123]. - On July 24, Zhongshan introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of the real - estate market [124].