Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific situation is increasing, which may accelerate the equipment construction in China, focusing on new combat capabilities [2][12] - China's high-end aviation equipment showcased at the Dubai Airshow is expected to further expand the military trade market [12][15] - The Fujian aircraft carrier has conducted its first live training at sea, indicating a significant advancement in operational capabilities and technology [12][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand for new combat capabilities and military trade as key growth areas [19] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report highlights various investment targets across different segments, including: - Engine and fuel chain: Companies like Xi'an Aero Engine (600893), Western Superconducting (688122), and others [19][20] - New quality and domains: Companies such as Aerospace Electronics (600879), Haige Communication (002465), and others [19][20] - Military electronics: Companies like Aerospace Electric (002025), Zhonghang Optical (002179), and others [19][20] - Military trade and main equipment: Companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760), AVIC Chengfei (302132), and others [19][20] Industry News and Market Performance - The report notes that the defense and military industry index has outperformed the broader market, with a decline of only -1.72% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's -3.90% [22][25] - The report provides a detailed analysis of weekly market performance, indicating that the defense and military sector remains resilient amid broader market declines [22][25] Key Events and Developments - The report outlines significant recent events, including: - The U.S. government approved a new round of arms sales to Japan, which may heighten regional tensions and prompt China to expedite its military equipment development [12][9] - The successful live training of the Fujian aircraft carrier, showcasing advanced operational capabilities [12][18] - The participation of Chinese high-end military equipment in international exhibitions, enhancing China's presence in the global military trade market [12][15]

Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector is experiencing a significant surge, with key stocks showing strong performance, driven by a combination of increased order certainty and structural shifts towards high-end capabilities [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The military industry is expected to undergo a critical transformation by 2026, characterized by rigid demand, high-end structural changes, and improved financial health [1] - Five core judgments include enhanced order certainty due to the delivery of "14th Five-Year Plan" tail orders and the initiation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Demand structure is shifting towards new combat capabilities and consumable operational capabilities [1] - Military trade is emerging as a second growth curve, opening high-end market ceilings through systematic exports [1] - Deepening military-civilian integration is expected to enable dual-use technologies in areas such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [1] - Financial quality is improving, with cash flow and profitability entering an upward trajectory, shifting valuation logic from thematic speculation to fundamental pricing [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - Investment in the military sector is centered around four high-certainty directions: 1. The main battle equipment industry chain from a military trade perspective, focusing on core enterprises with assembly capabilities and overseas delivery experience [2] 2. Advanced combat fields accelerating the formation of new combat capabilities, including underwater offense and defense, unmanned clusters, network electromagnetic countermeasures, and intelligent command [2] 3. Technology-driven sectors under military-civilian integration, such as commercial aerospace and controllable nuclear fusion components, which possess both defense support and emerging industry attributes [2] 4. Reform and asset securitization, involving local state-owned enterprises acquiring quality military-related assets and central military enterprises accelerating the securitization of unlisted assets [2]

智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，2025年国防军工板块迎来基本面与市场表现的双重拐点，行 业终结"增收不增利"困局，迈入"订单兑现+业绩驱动"的高质量发展阶段。2026年作为"十五五"开局之 年，板块将迎来需求刚性化、结构高端化与财务健康化的关键转折，投资主线聚焦军贸出口、新质战斗 力、军民融合及资产证券化四大高确定性方向。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 2025年国防军工板块迎来基本面与市场表现的双重拐点 风险提示 1)行业订单不及预期的风险，2)新技术新产品应用进度不及预期的风险；3)价格波动超出预期；4)相关 改革进展不及预期。 作为"十五五"规划开局之年与建军百年奋斗目标冲刺前夜，军工行业将迎来需求刚性化、结构高端化与 财务健康化的关键转折：核心判断有五：一是订单确定性显著增强，"十四五"尾单集中交付与"十五 五"新规划启动形成双轮驱动；二是需求结构加速向新质战斗力和消耗性作战能力倾斜；三是军贸成为 第二增长曲线，体系化出口打开高端市场天花板；四是军民融合深化，商业航天、低空经济、核聚变等 方向实现"军技民用、双向赋能"；五是财务质量全面改善，现金流与盈利能力进入上行通道，估值逻辑 从主题博弈转向基 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant turning point for the defense and military industry in 2025, with a strong recovery in both fundamentals and market performance, indicating a shift from policy expectations to actual performance realization [4][9][11] - The industry is entering a new phase characterized by rigid demand, structural upgrades, and improved financial health, with five core judgments outlined for 2026 [4][6][24] Industry Trends - The defense and military sector saw a cumulative increase of 16.39% in the Shenwan Defense Index by October 31, 2025, closely aligning with the performance of the CSI 300 index but lagging behind the growth-driven ChiNext index [9] - The market experienced a "Q1 bottoming, Q2 recovery, Q3 acceleration, and Q4 consolidation" rhythm, with the driving force shifting from policy expectations to performance realization [9][10] Financial Performance - The industry ended the "increasing revenue without increasing profit" dilemma, with significant improvements in operating cash flow and profitability quality, marking a transition to a new phase of high-quality development [4][24][26] - By November 10, 2025, the PE-TTM (excluding negative values) for the defense sector was approximately 70 times, indicating a structural revaluation rather than a systemic bubble [20][24] Revenue and Profitability - The report indicates a recovery in revenue and profit growth in 2025, with a notable increase in operating cash flow, signaling a turnaround from previous years of negative cash flow [24][31] - The industry experienced a significant rebound in profitability, with a 17.29% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025, reflecting effective cost control and improved operational efficiency [26][31] Investment Focus - The investment strategy focuses on four main lines: the main battle equipment supply chain from a military trade perspective, advanced combat capabilities, military-civilian integration sectors, and reform and asset securitization [4][6][26] - Key companies to watch include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, and others involved in military trade and advanced combat technologies [4][6][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights six main lines of new productive forces, emphasizing the importance of innovation and advanced technologies in enhancing combat capabilities and operational efficiency [3][6][8] - It anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the mass production of humanoid robots and the practical implementation of Level 3 autonomous driving [3][43] - The commercial space sector is identified as a strategic emerging industry with significant growth potential, driven by technological advancements and policy support [24][32] Summary by Relevant Sections New Quality Combat Power - New quality combat power is characterized by innovation-driven advancements, moving away from traditional methods of enhancing combat capabilities [6][8] - Key features include the integration of emerging technologies such as AI, big data, and quantum information into military applications [7][8] Unmanned Equipment - Unmanned combat equipment is seen as a core component of new quality combat power, utilizing AI and advanced manufacturing technologies for various military tasks [15][19] - The report predicts that 2026 will be a critical year for the large-scale application of unmanned equipment, driven by new procurement paradigms and practical experiences from recent conflicts [19][20] Commercial Space - The commercial space industry is projected to experience rapid growth, with the global satellite industry revenue reaching approximately $285.3 billion in 2023, reflecting a significant increase [32][31] - The report emphasizes the role of policy support and technological breakthroughs in accelerating the development of the commercial space sector [32] Controlled Nuclear Fusion - Controlled nuclear fusion is highlighted as a key pathway for achieving clean and nearly limitless energy, with the potential to reshape global energy dynamics [35][38] - The report identifies 2026 as a crucial year for the development of controlled nuclear fusion, with multiple international projects reaching significant milestones [38] Intelligent Driving - The report forecasts that the market for Level 3 autonomous driving will exceed 50 billion yuan in 2025, with a long-term potential nearing 300 billion yuan [43] - It notes that 2026 is expected to be the year when Level 3 autonomous driving becomes commercially viable, supported by regulatory advancements [43][46]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "advanced combat power" is introduced as a new perspective on military capability, emphasizing the integration of new quality combat power and the need for modernization in military forces [1][3][11]. Group 1: Advanced Combat Power Definition - Advanced combat power represents a higher form of military capability, focusing on the scale, practical application, and systematic use of new quality combat power [1][4]. - It is characterized by innovation, intelligence, and a comprehensive upgrade of all elements of combat power, including military theory, organizational structure, personnel, and equipment [9][10]. Group 2: Military Modernization and Strategic Goals - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes accelerating the construction of advanced combat power to achieve the centenary goals of the military and enhance the quality and efficiency of national defense modernization [2][6]. - The integration of new quality combat power is crucial for adapting to the evolving landscape of modern warfare and maintaining national security [2][17]. Group 3: Technological Integration and Military Revolution - The rapid development of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and quantum technology is driving a transformation in military capabilities and operational methods [4][16]. - Advanced combat power is increasingly reliant on intelligent systems and data-driven decision-making, marking a shift from traditional combat methods to more sophisticated, technology-enhanced approaches [8][16]. Group 4: Training and Practical Application - Realistic training is highlighted as a critical component for integrating personnel, equipment, and organizational systems to enhance combat effectiveness [18]. - The focus on practical training aligned with real combat scenarios is essential for improving the operational capabilities of military forces [18].

Core Concept - Advanced combat capability is a decisive factor in the rise and fall of military forces, influencing operational effectiveness and national security [1][2][3] Group 1: Definition and Importance - Advanced combat capability represents the development trend of military reform and intelligence, serving as a new growth point for combat effectiveness and a strategic high ground on future battlefields [2][3] - The concept of advanced combat capability is rooted in the integration of new quality combat power and new productive forces, reflecting the need for modernization in national defense and military [3][4] Group 2: Technological Integration - The rapid advancement of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and quantum technology is reshaping combat methods and military effectiveness, making technology a critical factor in determining the outcome of wars [4][5] - New quality combat power is characterized by its reliance on data, algorithms, and cross-domain elements, marking a shift from traditional energy-based combat to information and intelligence-driven strategies [9][10] Group 3: Military Modernization - The achievements in national defense and military modernization since the new era have laid a solid foundation for advanced combat capability, emphasizing the importance of reform and innovation in military structures [6][7] - The integration of new operational forces and the modernization of weaponry, including advanced tanks and aircraft, are crucial for enhancing combat effectiveness [7][8] Group 4: Strategic Development - The construction of advanced combat capability is aligned with the strategic goals of national defense, focusing on high-quality development and the integration of military and civilian resources [16][19] - Emphasizing practical training and real combat scenarios is essential for enhancing the effectiveness of military operations and ensuring readiness for future conflicts [20] Group 5: Theoretical Innovation - The concept of advanced combat capability reflects a significant theoretical breakthrough in military thought, enriching the Marxist military theory and addressing the limitations of Western military theories [12][15] - The integration of new quality combat power into military strategy is essential for adapting to the evolving nature of warfare and enhancing overall military effectiveness [14][15]

投资建议与投资标的 风险提示：军品订单和收入确认不及预期；研发进度及产业化不及预期；竞争格局及份 额波动风险；产品价格下降风险等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 国防军工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 16 日 | 罗楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860518100001 | | --- | --- | | | luonan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 冯函 | 执业证书编号：S0860520070002 | | | fenghan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 国防军工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 无人僚机攻击-11 公开亮相，朱雀三号可回 收火箭即将首飞，关注新质战斗力 核心观点 | 核心观点：关注新质战斗力及商业航天 4 | | --- | | 1.1 智能化驱动作战模式升级，无人僚机未来市场广阔 4 | | 1.2 "朱雀三号"即将首飞，未来规模化星座组网计划有望加速 4 | | 1.3 继续看好内需新质战斗力、军贸等方向 4 | | 风险提示 5 | | 附录：行情走势与主要新闻公告 6 | | 2. ...

武汉警备区第八次党代会召开 盛阅春表示，市委将持续弘扬优良传统，用心用情为驻汉部队排忧解难，营造拥军崇军 良好环境，全力巩固军政军民团结。希望警备区继续发挥好桥梁纽带作用，动员驻汉部队一 如既往积极参与地方建设。 武汉警备区党委书记、政治委员刘洋致闭幕词，市委常委、武汉警备区党委副书记、司 令员袁野主持会议。 编辑：陈辰 坚持政治引领 强化使命担当 会议审议通过了中共武汉警备区第七届委员会工作报告和纪律检查委员会工作报告，选 举产生了警备区第八届党委委员、新一届纪委委员。 盛阅春代表市委对大会胜利召开表示热烈祝贺，向警备区全体官兵、职工及全市专武干 部、民兵致以衷心感谢。他指出，过去五年，警备区党委深入贯彻习近平强军思想，坚决落 实党中央、中央军委决策部署，在湖北省军区党委的坚强领导下，政治引领坚强有力，练兵 备战扎实有效，国防动员深入推进，服务地方积极有为，各项工作取得显著成绩。 盛阅春强调，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时 期，党的二十届四中全会擘画了未来五年发展的宏伟蓝图。武汉正深入学习贯彻全会精神， 认真落实省委部署要求，加快建设国家中心城市，全力打造"五个中心"，努力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of China's first electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier, Fujian, marks a significant advancement in the country's naval capabilities, establishing China as one of only two nations with operational electromagnetic launch capabilities [2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of November 10, the Aerospace ETF (159267) reached a new high of 335 million yuan, with a recent increase of 14.5 million units in the past month [1]. - The ETF recorded a net inflow of 3.8938 million yuan recently, with a total of 32.3372 million yuan in net inflows over the last 10 trading days [1]. - The ETF's net flow rate over the past 20 days stands at 77.34%, leading among similar products [1]. Group 2: Fujian Aircraft Carrier - The Fujian aircraft carrier is equipped with an advanced electromagnetic launch system and new carrier-based aircraft, significantly enhancing operational efficiency and establishing a comprehensive maritime defense system [1][2]. - The entry of the Fujian carrier into service is expected to set new standards for future aircraft carriers and provide valuable experience in deploying fifth-generation carrier-based fighter jets [2]. - The carrier's commissioning reflects the advanced nature of China's military equipment and is anticipated to drive a new round of upgrades in military technology during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2]. Group 3: Industry Index - The Aerospace ETF closely tracks the National Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index, which consists of high-quality companies in aerospace, military electronics, and ground armaments, with a 98.2% representation in the defense and military industry [2]. - The index has a high coverage of aerospace and military sectors, with 90.35% in aerospace and over 53% in aircraft carrier concepts, making it one of the purest military-themed indices in the market [2].