本报记者 王僖 12月12日晚，山东晨鸣纸业集团股份有限公司（简称"ST晨鸣"）发布《关于剥离融资租赁业务相关资产的公告》。公告显 示，为聚焦制浆造纸主业，该公司拟将旗下全部融资租赁业务相关资产，以总对价33.36亿元转让给寿光市财政局下属全资国有 企业寿光市晟嘉投资有限公司（以下简称"晟嘉投资"）。此举标志着该公司将彻底退出持续亏损的融资租赁领域，轻装上阵， 全力回归核心主业。 公告明确指出，本次交易是"为进一步聚焦制浆造纸主业发展战略"。出售资产所得款项将主要用于补充流动资金，支持主 业发展。交易完成后，该公司将不再从事任何融资租赁业务，相关公司也不再纳入合并报表范围。 为控制风险并确保交易顺利，本次交易设计了分期付款方案，并设置了严格的担保措施。协议规定，受让方需在股权交割 后将其持有的目标公司股权质押给转让方，作为其履行付款义务的担保。同时，在全部价款付清前，受让方从目标公司获得的 分红或融资款项，应优先用于偿还本次交易价款。 公告显示，晟嘉投资作为寿光市财政局设立的全资国有企业，其资信状况良好，具备较高履约能力。此前，为支持公司复 工复产，寿光市政府已提供了部分资金及担保。此次采取分期付款方式作为价 ...

箱板瓦楞纸价格中枢有望同比修复 该行认为，箱板瓦楞纸在造纸中对消费敏感度最高，2023-24年消费量增速为8%、4%，该行预计2022- 25年消费增量为~1,000万吨;本轮供给扩张已进入收尾阶段，该行统计2023-25年已投产能合计1,500万吨 +(四家龙头占比~40%)，未来原有龙头扩张相对克制：玖龙2024年起暂停扩产箱板瓦楞纸、山鹰安徽新 增产能短期较难投产、理文暂无扩张计划，而2026年目前仅太阳70万吨产能计划年末释放，该行认为本 轮行业扩张进入尾声，该行看好2026年行业迎来产能利用率、价格中枢同比修复的行情。 优质林地、纸浆资产的稀缺性进一步提升 考虑到全球经济增长、优质林地资源有限，上游林、浆资源趋紧，该行看好拥有优质林浆资产的企业。 具体看，短期玖龙、仙鹤积极布局自制浆环节，新基地带来利润增量;长期看，国内太阳领跑行业建立 林浆纸一体化产业链，该行看好其超额利润持续累积、老挝林地的稀缺价值重估在望，海外Suzano亦受 益于优质林浆资产布局。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，展望2026年，消费需求仍在温和修复阶段，各类纸种供给变化各 异：浆纸系纸种供需仍然宽松，浆价成为行业补库、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has significantly enhanced production efficiency and product quality through the introduction of advanced international production systems and self-developed technologies, establishing an intelligent production base [1] Group 1: Production and Technology - The company has built an integrated "wood-pulp-paper" layout to ensure self-supply of raw materials and reduce external dependency [1] - A digital management platform has been established, utilizing various digital tools and smart devices for efficient process control [1] Group 2: Environmental Management - The company has created an energy recycling system to recover and convert waste materials, wastewater, and exhaust gases into energy, achieving efficient resource reuse [1] - Full-chain low-carbon management is being promoted, with technology enabling traceable carbon emissions, transforming environmental investments into scale advantages, and reducing unit environmental costs [1] Group 3: Capacity and Market Position - Since 2025, the company has launched 700,000 tons of chemical pulp and the Rizhao Huatai specialty paper, continuously releasing production capacity [1] - The company is optimizing its product structure to increase the proportion of high value-added products, providing space for market share growth and profit improvement [1]

Group 1 - The domestic paper industry is experiencing a price increase trend, particularly in the packaging paper sector, driven by leading companies and downstream demand [1] - Companies like Shanying International have initiated price hikes for products such as corrugated paper, with increases ranging from 30 to 100 yuan per ton, while other firms like Nine Dragons Paper have followed suit [1] - The recent "Double Eleven" shopping festival has boosted packaging demand, leading to a rise in order volumes for packaging paper, indicating a gradual recovery in the paper industry [1] Group 2 - The paper industry is transitioning towards "high-end, international, and green" development, with leading companies optimizing their production capacity to alleviate profit margin pressures caused by low-price competition [2] - Major companies are implementing strategies such as the establishment of integrated supply chains, with Shanying Huazhong Paper planning a chemical pulp project and Yibin Paper focusing on bamboo pulp for eco-friendly packaging [2] - The tightening of environmental regulations is expected to increase waste paper costs, intensifying competition among smaller paper companies, which will focus on cost control, technological upgrades, and supply chain integration [2]

Group 1 - The domestic paper industry is experiencing a price increase trend, particularly in the packaging paper sector, driven by leading companies and downstream demand [1] - Companies like Shanying Paper have initiated price hikes for products such as corrugated paper, with increases ranging from 30 to 100 yuan per ton, while core products in Guangdong and Zhejiang have seen a rise of 50 yuan per ton [1] - The price of packaging paper is supported by increased demand from events like "Double Eleven," with a notable rise in order volumes for boxboard, corrugated paper, and white card paper [1] Group 2 - The paper industry is transitioning towards "high-end, international, and green" production, alleviating profit margin pressures caused by low-price competition among small enterprises [2] - Major companies are focusing on raw material control and environmental packaging advantages, with projects like Shanying's chemical pulp production and Yibin Paper's bamboo pulp molding [2] - Analysts are optimistic about the cyclical recovery of the paper sector, with expectations of continued price increases for raw paper and improved profitability during peak seasons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q3 2025 performance with revenue of 3.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 304 million yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year, indicating robust operational stability and improved profitability driven by integrated operations in the pulp and paper sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 3.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.5% and a net profit of 304 million yuan, reflecting a 13.9% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company achieved a non-recurring net profit of 247 million yuan, which is a 1.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - Investment income from joint ventures and associates amounted to 52.29 million yuan in Q3 [1]. Production and Cost Analysis - The total production and sales volume for Q3 2025 was 38,000 tons, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter, with an average selling price of 7,241 yuan per ton, down 174 yuan from the previous quarter [2]. - The cost per ton was 6,062 yuan, a decrease of 367 yuan quarter-on-quarter, leading to a gross profit of 1,179 yuan per ton, which is an increase of 193 yuan quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The net profit per ton for the main business was 640 yuan, up 29 yuan quarter-on-quarter, while excluding contributions from the summer king, the net profit per ton was 500 yuan, an increase of 37 yuan quarter-on-quarter [2]. Profitability and Efficiency - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 14.59%, stable year-on-year and up 1.77 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The net profit margin was 9.88%, down 0.15 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.94 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was 590 million yuan, compared to 371 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating strong cash flow performance [4]. Strategic Positioning - The company is a leading player in the specialty paper sector, with a comprehensive production capacity exceeding 2 million tons annually across various locations in China [4]. - The integration of pulp and paper operations is expected to smooth out cyclical fluctuations and provide substantial growth momentum [4]. Investment Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in pulp prices from Q3 to Q4, with expected revenue growth of 24%, 19%, and 18% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.108 billion, 1.389 billion, and 1.683 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.57, 1.97, and 2.38 yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company is expected to see improved performance in Q4 2025, with a focus on price increases in the paper market as demand recovers and raw material prices stabilize [2][5] - The company has a strong integrated business model in the forestry and paper industry, which helps mitigate cyclical fluctuations [4][5] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate steady growth, with expected revenues of 429.4 billion, 490.8 billion, and 520.1 billion respectively, and net profits of 34.0 billion, 38.9 billion, and 43.9 billion [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenues of 9.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.01% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 720 million yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year but down 19.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 14.07%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points but a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [4] Product Segmentation - Cultural paper prices decreased in Q3 2025, with average prices for double glue paper at 4,944 yuan/ton, down 5.7% quarter-on-quarter and 9.2% year-on-year. Price increases are anticipated in Q4 due to seasonal demand [2] - Dissolving pulp prices fell significantly in Q3 2025, averaging 6,517 yuan/ton, down 16.8% year-on-year and 8.5% quarter-on-quarter, but are expected to stabilize as costs decrease [2] - Boxboard prices showed mixed trends, with average prices for boxboard at 3,502 yuan/ton (down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter) and corrugated paper at 2,644 yuan/ton (up 3.7% quarter-on-quarter) [3] Strategic Developments - The company is optimizing its pulp and paper industry layout, with several new projects in progress that are expected to contribute to revenue in Q4 2025 [5] - The integration of forestry and pulp production is expected to enhance profitability and reduce the impact of market fluctuations [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 429.4 billion, 490.8 billion, and 520.1 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 34.0 billion, 38.9 billion, and 43.9 billion [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are forecasted to be 12X, 10X, and 9X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on the last closing price of 14.11 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady performance in Q3 2025, with expectations for new capacity to be released [1][4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.936 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.500 billion yuan, an increase of 1.66% [3][4]. - The report highlights the company's strong cost control and operational resilience, with a slight increase in net profit despite revenue pressures [4]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 9.823 billion yuan, down 6.01%, attributed to weak demand and downward pressure on product prices [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 14.07%, showing a slight increase of 0.11 percentage points, supported by the advantages of integrated pulp and paper operations [4]. - The net margin improved to 7.35%, up 0.61 percentage points, indicating enhanced profitability [4]. Capacity Expansion and Integration - The company is advancing its capacity expansion projects, including a 140,000-ton specialty paper project in Shandong, expected to enter trial production in Q1 2026 [5]. - In Guangxi, the company has launched several production lines, including high-end packaging paper and chemical pulp, with ongoing projects expected to further enhance its integrated operations [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.354 billion yuan in 2025, 3.826 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.305 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.20, 1.37, and 1.54 yuan [6][7]. - The report anticipates a steady revenue growth rate of 2.80% in 2025, increasing to 7.70% in 2026 and 7.30% in 2027 [7][11].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 28.94 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.50 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% [1] - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 9.82 billion yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin was 15.7%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year; the expense ratio was 5.5%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point year-on-year, leading to a net profit margin of 8.6%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 14.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year but a decrease of 3.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; the expense ratio was 5.6%, remaining stable year-on-year and decreasing by 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; the net profit margin was 7.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and a decrease of 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Production Capacity Expansion - The company is steadily advancing its new capacity layout, with the second phase of the special paper project at the Shandong base expected to enter trial production in Q1 2026, alongside ongoing projects for 600,000 tons of bleached chemical pulp and high-end packaging paper [2] - At the Guangxi base, the first phase of the Nanning park has seen the high-end packaging paper production line PM11 start operations in August 2025, with PM12 entering debugging in October 2025; the second phase includes the PM9 special paper line and other pulp production lines that began operations in September 2025 [2] - In the household paper segment, four production lines were initiated at the Nanning park in early 2025, with PM16 and PM17 entering debugging in October 2025, and PM18 and PM19 expected to enter debugging in November 2025 [2] Profit Forecast and Rating - The company is expected to benefit from its integrated forestry and paper-making advantages, with collaborative development across its three major bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos, leading to gradual capacity release and diversified product structure [2] - The projected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.34 billion yuan, 3.84 billion yuan, and 4.25 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a "recommended" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 28.936 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1.66% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights the resilience of profitability at the bottom of the cycle, with expectations for a recovery in industry conditions in Q4, driven by seasonal demand and new production capacity coming online [3][4]. - The company has successfully implemented its "integrated forestry-pulp-paper" strategy, which has created a strong cost advantage, as evidenced by its performance in Q3 [3]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.01%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.6%. The net profit for the same period was 720 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [2][3]. - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2025 were 15.7% and 8.6%, respectively, showing slight year-on-year changes [4]. - The company has announced its first mid-year dividend plan, proposing a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.795 billion yuan, with a distribution ratio of 11.18% [4]. Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The company is advancing its new production capacity projects, including a 600,000-ton bleaching chemical pulp project and a 700,000-ton high-end packaging paper project, both expected to enhance production capabilities and reduce reliance on external pulp sources [4]. - The report anticipates that with the recovery of price levels and the release of new capacity, the company's revenue and profit will enter an upward trajectory starting from Q4 2025 [3][4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 3.436 billion yuan, 4.026 billion yuan, and 4.485 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 11%, 17%, and 11% [4][6].