Group 1 - The U.S. inflation data for August met expectations, leading to increased bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with traders anticipating at least two cuts by the end of the year, and possibly three [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.9% year-on-year in August, the highest level in seven months, while the core CPI remained stable at 3.1% [1] - The European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive time, while raising the eurozone economic growth forecast to 1.2% [4] Group 2 - The increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.9 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a decrease, raised concerns about weak demand [6] - International oil prices fell, with light crude futures closing at $62.37 per barrel, down 2.04%, and Brent crude at $66.37 per barrel, down 1.66% [7] - Gold prices experienced a slight decline, closing at $3673.6 per ounce, as investors believed the latest inflation data would not alter the Fed's decision on interest rates [9]

Market Performance - On September 11, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.36%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.85%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.72%, all reaching historical highs [1][2][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 46,137.2 points during the session, closing at 46,108 points, marking the first time it closed above 46,000 points [3] - The S&P 500 index reached an intraday high of 6,592.89 points, closing at 6,587.47 points, while the Nasdaq index hit a peak of 22,059.71 points, closing at 22,043.07 points, the first close above 22,000 points [3] Technology Sector - The index of the seven major US technology stocks rose by 0.62%, with Tesla surging over 6%, Apple increasing by more than 1%, and Google and Microsoft showing slight gains [5] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the US saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 2.89%. Notable individual performances included Century Internet and GDS Holdings, both increasing nearly 15%, and Alibaba rising by nearly 8% [8][10] Precious Metals - International precious metals futures showed mixed results, with COMEX gold futures down by 0.23% to $3,673.4 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 1.12% to $42.065 per ounce [12][13] Economic Indicators - The US Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, marking the highest level since October 2021 [16] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in July, with the core CPI rising by 3.1% [17]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained the deposit facility rate at 2% [1] - The main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate remain unchanged at 2.15% and 2.40% respectively [1]

Group 1 - The majority of economists (66 out of 69) expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% during the meeting on September 11, aligning with market expectations [1] - Recent data shows inflation nearing the 2% target and unemployment at historical lows, leading most economists to believe the ECB has completed its rate-cutting cycle [1] - Approximately 60% of economists (40 out of 69) predict that the ECB will keep rates unchanged for the remainder of the year [1] Group 2 - Economists forecast the Eurozone economy to grow by 1.2% this year and 1.1% next year, consistent with the results from the August survey [1] - There are risks identified in the region, including the contraction of the German economy and political instability in some Eurozone countries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing a slight decline against the US dollar, trading around 1.16, with a current quote of 1.1653, reflecting a decrease of 0.05% from the previous day's close of 1.1658 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The overall turmoil in the global bond market appears to have eased, leading to a more stable market environment that supports the euro [1] - Market participants are shifting their focus back to fundamentals and the relative outlook of central bank policies [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policies - ECB Governing Council member Müller expressed a preference for maintaining current interest rates, aligning with market expectations for the ECB's meetings in September and October [1] - The market currently prices in approximately 8 basis points for a potential rate cut by the ECB in December, suggesting that if this expectation is removed, it could provide support for the euro [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the euro is at 50, indicating a neutral position, while the euro/USD continues to consolidate around the 50-day moving average of 1.1666 [1] - Over the past month, the trading range for the euro/USD has remained stable between the support level of the upper 1.15s and the resistance level of the mid to lower 1.17s, with expectations for short-term fluctuations between 1.1600 and 1.1700 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increase in gold prices due to heightened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with December 2025 gold futures rising by $35.6 to $3417.2 per ounce, marking a 1.05% increase [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. economy faces new challenges, including high tariffs reshaping global trade and stricter immigration policies leading to a sharp slowdown in labor supply growth [1] - Powell mentioned that the current inflation risks are skewed to the upside while employment risks are skewed to the downside, creating a challenging economic environment [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance may need adjustment based on changes in outlook and risk balance, although there is no preset path for monetary policy [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates in the Eurozone at 2% in September, with economic growth and inflation trends aligning with previous expectations [1] - Silver futures for September delivery also saw an increase, rising by $0.801 to $38.880 per ounce, reflecting a 2.10% gain [1]

Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% with a vote of 9 in favor and 2 against, indicating internal divisions among officials regarding interest rate adjustments [1][2] - Fed officials Waller and Bowman expressed concerns that delaying interest rate cuts could harm the labor market, advocating for a 25 basis point reduction [2] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized the need for patience in assessing the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy, despite signs of a slowing labor market [2] Employment and Economic Data - The U.S. job report indicated a slowdown, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, raising concerns about the labor market's strength [2] - Fed official Williams noted significant downward revisions in employment data for May and June but maintained that the labor market remains solid [3] - The U.S. economy is expected to grow at approximately 1% this year, with a potential rebound in 2026 [3] Global Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Canada held its interest rate steady at 2.75%, indicating a possibility of future cuts if economic conditions weaken [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs unless significant economic changes occur, with inflation remaining stable at 2.0% in July [5][6] - The Bank of Japan maintained its rate at 0.5% and raised its 2025 core CPI forecast to 2.7%, indicating a cautious approach to inflation management [7] Market Reactions and Predictions - The market is divided on the U.S. economic outlook, with some believing in its resilience while others see emerging cracks, particularly in consumer spending [9] - The potential for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased following the recent employment data, despite missing the opportunity in July [10] - Barclays economists predict the ECB may cut rates by 25 basis points in December, citing easing inflation pressures by year-end [10]

Core Insights - The Eurozone experienced unexpected economic growth in the second quarter, leading to speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) may refrain from further interest rate cuts [1] Economic Performance - The growth rate in the second quarter was slower compared to the previous quarter, but it indicates a recovery in private consumption within the Eurozone [1] - Vincent Stammer from Deutsche Bank noted that higher economic growth typically leads to increased prices [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Due to the economic growth, the ECB may feel the need to maintain current key interest rates rather than lowering them [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Viewpoint - In the face of high capacity constraints and with demand gradually entering the off - season, freight rates will face pressure in the future [1][28] Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a yesterday's charge price of 2183.2, a decline of 1.33%, a direct difference of 133.4, a yesterday's volume of 2525, a yesterday's open interest of 7369, and an open interest change of - 989 [1][28] - EC2510 had a price of 1502.8, a decline of 1.62%, a direct difference of 813.8, a volume of 56014, and an open interest change of 717 [1][28] - EC2512 had a price of 1737.8, an increase of 1.02%, a direct difference of 578.8, and an open interest change of 79 [1][28] - EC2602 had a price of 1541.0, an increase of 1.46%, a direct difference of 775.6, and an open interest change of - 23 [1][28] - EC2604 had a price of 1370.0, an increase of 0.61%, a direct difference of 946.6, and an open interest change of - 283 [1][28] - EC2606 had a price of 1493.6, a decline of 1.61%, a direct difference of 823.0, and an open interest change of 44 [1][28] Month - to - Month Spread - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's spread was 680.4, with a daily change of - 4.7 and a weekly change of - 21.3 [1][28] - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 235.0, with a daily change of - 42.3 and a weekly change of - 74.3 [1][28] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 196.8, with a daily change of - 4.6 and a weekly change of - 51.4 [1][28] Shipping Indexes - SCEIS (updated every Monday, as of 2025/7/28): 2316.56 points, a decline of 3.50% from the previous period and 0.89% from the period before the previous one [1][28] - SCFI (updated every Friday, as of 2025/7/25): 2090 dollars/TEU, an increase of 0.53% from the previous period and a decline of 0.95% in the next period [1][28] - CCFI (updated every Friday, as of 2025/7/25): 1787.24, a decline of 0.90% from the previous period and an increase of 4.46% in the next period [1][28] - NCFI (updated every week - nine, as of 2025/7/25): 1422.9, a decline of 1.20% from the previous period and an increase of 0.35% in the next period [1][28] - TCI (as of 2025/7/18): 1054.56 points, a decline of 0.75% from the previous period and no change in the next period [1][28] European Line Supply and Demand - The average capacities in August and September (temporarily) are 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacities in week32/33/34/35 are 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure, especially in the second half of August [1][28] - There is a situation of transfer from the US line in the European line schedule. Supported by the base cargo volume of shipping companies, the loading rate of shipping companies in July did not face much pressure. In early August, the base cargo still provides some support, but the cargo volume is gradually weakening and entering the off - season [1][28] Recent European Line Quotations - In July, the quotations remained stable at around 2400 points [2][29] - In August, the PA alliance's price dropped by 200 - 300 to 3100 dollars, MSK's price decreased slightly at the beginning of the cabin opening (2900 - 3000 dollars) and then increased slightly, and OA continued to use 3400 - 3500 dollars. The price in week31 landed at about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the futures market) [2][29] Related News - On 7/28, the US - EU trade agreement may lead to a long - term pause in interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank, increasing the risk of no further interest rate cuts [3][30] - On 7/29, Israel is considering a full - scale military occupation of the Gaza Strip [3][30] - On 7/29, the US State Department refused to hold a "two - state solution" meeting on the Gaza issue [3][30] - On 7/29, the German government will approve a 2026 budget including a record investment of 126.7 billion euros to revitalize its sluggish economy [3][30]

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate level maintained by the European Central Bank (ECB) is deemed valuable, indicating a shift away from the era of easily adjusting rates [1] Economic Context - The euro is currently near its historical average, but close monitoring is necessary [1] - There remains untapped economic potential within the region [1] - The extensive easing policies previously implemented by the ECB continue to have an impact on the economy [1] Policy Stance - The ECB's current robust policy approach is considered appropriate for the economic conditions [1] - The era of straightforward interest rate hikes or cuts has concluded, suggesting a more complex decision-making environment ahead [1]