Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electricity sector [4] Core Views - The electricity sector is experiencing differentiated growth in thermal power, significant improvement in hydropower, and pressure on green energy [3][6] - The overall performance of the electricity sector is expected to continue growing, supported by falling fuel costs and potential recovery in electricity demand [3][6] Summary by Sections Market Review - In Q1 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 2.38 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The industrial power generation decreased by 0.3% year-on-year [10] - The generation from thermal, hydropower, nuclear, solar, and wind sources changed by -4.7%, +5.9%, +12.8%, +19.5%, and +9.3% respectively [10] - Coal prices have significantly decreased, with the Q1 average price for North Port Q5500 at 733 RMB/ton, down 19.2% year-on-year [18] Performance Overview - In 2024, thermal power companies achieved a net profit of 646 billion RMB, up 31.91% year-on-year, while hydropower companies reported a net profit of 563 billion RMB, up 17.31% [2] - In Q1 2025, the electricity sector's total revenue was 464.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.96% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 7.83% year-on-year to 50.7 billion RMB [3][27] Fund Holdings - As of Q1 2025, the proportion of active funds in the electricity and public utilities sector decreased to 1.37%, down 0.55 percentage points from Q4 2024 [32] - The combined holdings of both active and index funds in the sector stood at 2.02% in Q1 2025, reflecting a downward trend [32][33] Investment Recommendations - Focus on thermal power companies with strong profitability and low electricity price risks, such as Huadian International and Huaneng International [6] - Long-term investment potential is seen in hydropower and nuclear power assets due to their high dividend yields and stable performance [6] - Attention is also recommended for green energy sectors as trading and consumption issues are expected to improve [6]

Summary of the Conference Call for Jingneng Power Company Overview - **Company**: Jingneng Power - **Industry**: Power Generation, specifically focusing on thermal and renewable energy Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a total profit increase of 770 million yuan, with the thermal power segment contributing at least 570 million yuan, indicating that thermal power remains the main driver of profit growth [2][10] - The overall revenue from the new energy sector reached nearly 400 million yuan, with profits exceeding 200 million yuan, showing significant year-on-year growth [2][8] - The profit from the new energy segment in Q1 2025 was 200 million yuan, a substantial increase compared to the previous year, primarily due to the performance of newly commissioned wind power projects [2][9] Power Generation and Pricing - The long-term contract electricity volume for 2025 was 75 billion kWh, accounting for less than 80% of total electricity volume, with the settlement price for thermal power increasing year-on-year despite a decrease in utilization hours by approximately 100 hours [2][4] - The average price of standard coal for power generation decreased by 3.9% in 2024, with a more significant decline of over 10% in Q1 2025 [3] - The overall electricity price increased by approximately 5% in Q1 2025, with notable increases in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan [2][19] New Energy Development - The company added 130,000 kW of solar power capacity in Q1 2025, contributing to a significant increase in overall installed capacity, particularly in the new energy sector [2][7] - Plans for 2025 include adding 1.7167 million kW of new energy capacity, with projects expected to be commissioned within the year, although specific timelines are pending due to preliminary procedures [2][11] Coal Procurement Strategy - The company maintains a coal procurement strategy primarily based on long-term contracts, with approximately 90% of coal sourced through this method in the previous year [2][5][17] - The long-term contract prices vary by region and supplier, but the company has improved its bargaining power due to increased pricing capabilities on the generation side [2][18] Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% of the distributable profits for the years 2023 to 2025, with the actual payout ratio exceeding 70% in 2024 [2][13][14][22] Market Outlook - The future trajectory of coal prices remains uncertain due to the highly market-driven nature of the coal market, although the company aims to manage market fluctuations through long-term contracts [2][16] - The sustainability of the electricity price increase will depend on various factors, including coal market conditions and electricity market policies [2][24] Other Notable Information - The company’s asset-liability ratio was below 65% in 2024 and remains under 65% in Q1 2025, indicating a stable financial position despite ongoing investments in new energy projects [2][25] - The company is currently in the preliminary stages for the expansion of the Zhuozhou Thermal Power Phase II project and the flexibility transformation project in Inner Mongolia, with plans to commence construction soon [2][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price expected to yield over 20% relative return within six months [5][17]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.563 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.90% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.47% to 2.793 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of no less than 10% of the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1]. - The company has made significant progress in project planning, which lays a foundation for sustainable development, including the approval of multiple power generation projects [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue was 145.63 billion yuan, with a decline in thermal power revenue by 4.45% to 77.55 billion yuan, while wind power revenue increased by 10.33% to 37.92 billion yuan [3]. - The gross profit margin improved to 26.6%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased wind power utilization hours [3]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 30.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.31%, and a net profit of 7.52 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 42.83% [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025-2026, now expecting net profits of 3 billion yuan and 3.2 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 3.7 billion yuan [4]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are 9, 8, and 7 times respectively [4]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total installed capacity reached 6.096 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.00 yuan, with a growth rate of 6.54% expected for 2025 [4][12]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 37.78% [6]. Market Position - The company operates in the public utility and power generation sector, with a focus on sustainable energy projects [5]. - The current market capitalization is approximately 26.97 billion yuan [6].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [10] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a mixed performance across various sectors within the public utility and environmental protection industry, with coal prices declining and water supply improving, reshaping the defensive value of water and coal [3] - The overall electricity consumption growth slowed down due to a warm winter and high base effects from the previous year, impacting thermal power generation negatively [4][29] - The renewable energy sector faces profit pressure due to declining utilization rates and electricity prices, despite significant installed capacity growth [4][52] - Hydropower benefits from improved water supply and reservoir management, leading to increased revenue and profit in early 2025 [5][7] - The environmental sector shows stable performance in water and solid waste operations, with a recovery in water profitability in early 2025 [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of 2024 Reports and 2025 Q1 - The electricity industry saw a 6.7% growth in consumption in 2024, driven by structural optimization and rising demand for new energy sources [16] - The environmental sector experienced a revenue decline of 2.7% and a net profit drop of 31% in 2024, with operational efficiency improvements in existing assets [16] 2. Sector Performance from 2024 to Q1 2025 2.1 Thermal Power - Thermal power generation faced pressure from electricity prices and demand, but benefited from lower coal prices, leading to a net profit increase of 6.5% in Q1 2025 [4][36][37] 2.2 Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector's profit was under pressure due to declining utilization rates and electricity prices, despite a 15.7% increase in wind power generation in 2024 [4][52] 2.3 Hydropower - Hydropower generation increased by 11.7% in 2024, with a significant profit increase in Q1 2025 due to improved water supply [5][7] 2.4 Environmental Protection - The environmental sector showed stable performance in water and solid waste operations, with a recovery in profitability in early 2025 [5][6] 3. Key Companies in the Sector - Focus on leading companies in thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power, such as Huadian International, Yangtze Power, and China Nuclear Power, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.23 RMB [7][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 35.428 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.723 billion RMB, up 95.52% from the previous year, exceeding expectations [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.885 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.59%, and a net profit of 1.063 billion RMB, up 129.84%, driven by lower coal prices and increased revenue from renewable energy [1]. - The company plans to continue expanding its renewable energy capacity, with a projected increase in installed capacity and ongoing projects [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 35.428 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 7.76% for 2025 [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 4.080 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a significant growth of 136.75% compared to 2024 [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.61 RMB for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 13.61% [6]. Operational Highlights - The company’s thermal power generation volume increased by 5% in 2024, with a total installed capacity of 21.39 million kW, an increase of 1.61 million kW year-on-year [2]. - The average electricity price for thermal power remained stable at 360 RMB per MWh, with a decrease in fuel costs by 3.9% [2]. - Renewable energy generation saw a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 322% in 2024, driven by new projects coming online [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of 5.23 RMB corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.11x for 2025, which is above the industry average of 1.07x [4]. - The company’s projected net profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2027 is 43%, significantly higher than the industry average of 12% [4].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 电力 迎峰度夏将至，重视煤价后置下的火电机会 本周行情回顾：本周（4.21-4.25）上证指数报收 3,295.06 点，上涨 0.56%， 沪深 300 指数报收 3786.99 点，上涨 0.38%。中信电力及公用事业指数 报收 2894.72 点，上涨 2.06%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.68pct，位列 30 个 中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 8 位。 本周行业观点： -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 电力 沪深300 作者 分析师 张津铭 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 分析师 高紫明 执业证书编号：S0680524100001 邮箱：gaoziming@gszq.com 投资建议：电力公司业绩陆续发布，基本面支撑与市场风格共振，重视电 力投资机会布局。迎峰度夏将至，本周煤价下跌至 665 元/吨附近，成本 超预期下跌支撑度电盈利改善，重视火电超额机会，建议关注重点火电标 的 ...