Key Insights - The core viewpoint indicates that after the verification period in April, the main contradiction in the fundamentals has shifted, with concerns about external demand still present. The domestic actual hedging strength has become the primary contradiction. Since May, two important catalysts have emerged: the press conference on May 7 and the Sino-US Geneva trade talks on May 12, leading to an upward adjustment in the A-share market's fluctuation range [2][3] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to test the upper limit of the fluctuation range following key changes. The financial policy is fully relaxed, directly related to stabilizing capital market expectations. The central bank has implemented various tools to support the market, which is anticipated to maintain short-term risk appetite and overall market activity [2][12] Medium-term Supply and Demand Outlook - The supply and demand structure has not yet systematically improved, and the judgment of a fluctuating market remains unchanged. Concerns about the impact of Trump’s policies persist, and the absolute pressure on domestic supply remains high. The demand side shows that the support for import demand from US inventory replenishment has peaked, with further pressure expected in the second and third quarters of 2025 [2][19][33] Earnings Forecast Update - The earnings forecast for A-shares in 2025 has been updated, reflecting a slight increase from the bottom but not confirming effective improvement. The net profit growth rate for the entire A-share market was -55% in Q4 2024, significantly below expectations, while Q1 2025 showed a growth of 6.3%, exceeding expectations. However, the logic behind these changes remains unclear [2][48][54] Sector Performance Insights - The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight recovery in demand, but the supply-demand structure remains weak. Key sectors showing clear performance improvement include consumption, pharmaceuticals, and AI computing power. The consumer sector is mainly benefiting from durable goods, while the pharmaceutical sector is seeing growth in innovative drugs and blood products. AI computing revenue growth has also shown signs of recovery [3][5][22] Policy and Market Dynamics - The recent policy changes by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aim to enhance the quality of public funds and strengthen the binding of interests with investors. The focus is on improving the stability of fund investment behavior and enhancing the ability to serve investors. The impact of these policies is expected to resonate with the long-term trend towards passive equity products [3][5][12] Structural Recommendations - Both short-term and long-term structural recommendations favor technology sectors. The first quarter earnings expectations for technology have strengthened, indicating a relative advantage in cost-effectiveness. The long-term outlook for A-shares requires significant catalysts from key technology industries to restart a structural bull market [3][5][6]

Group 1 - Orbis International Equity Fund has doubled its investment in Japanese stocks, increasing the allocation from 10% to 24%, resulting in a year-to-date return of 16% [1][2] - The fund manager, Graeme Foster, highlights that the depreciation of the yen over the past decade has led to undervaluation of Japanese companies, creating a "golden pit" of investment opportunities [1][2] - The yen has appreciated nearly 10% against the dollar this year, making it the best-performing major currency globally, which is expected to provide "dual benefits" for foreign investors in Japanese import-oriented companies [1][2] Group 2 - Foster has allocated 4% of the fund to the Japanese pharmacy sector, focusing on companies like Tsuruha Holdings and Sundrug, which are expected to benefit from increased market concentration and bargaining power [2] - The fund holds significant positions in Asahi Group and Mitsubishi Estate, with the former showing a 40% dividend payout ratio and stock buyback plan, while the latter benefits from rising rental prices [2] - Outside of Japan, the fund has also seen gains from European defense and banking sectors, although it has exited positions in Rheinmetall due to high gains, while maintaining holdings in Hanwha Aerospace and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries [2] Group 3 - Foster emphasizes a strategy focused on free cash flow yield, seeking companies that can generate 12%-14% cash flow returns, which allows for less concern over external factors like AI advancements or political policies [3] - The fund is validating the potential for traditional "value traps" to transform into "growth soil" as Japan emerges from deflation [3]

Core Insights - U.S. universities are increasingly considering selling private equity stakes due to liquidity pressures and the impact of Trump administration policies [1][2][3] - The trend reflects a broader shift as institutions face delayed returns and a significant drop in capital distributions from private equity firms [2][3] Group 1: Liquidity Pressures - Princeton University is exploring the feasibility of selling private equity stakes amid liquidity challenges [1] - Texas Tech University's endowment, exceeding $2 billion, is planning to reduce its exposure to private equity due to slow returns and infrequent capital distributions [1][2] - Harvard University is in negotiations to sell approximately $1 billion in private equity stakes from its $53 billion endowment [1][2] Group 2: Market Conditions - As of 2024, the private equity industry holds approximately $3.6 trillion in unrealized value across 29,000 unsold portfolio companies [2] - The proportion of funds distributed to investors has dropped to a record low of 11%, compared to a long-term average of around 25% [2] Group 3: Institutional Responses - Many universities are now more reliant on their endowments for operational budgets, leading to heightened vigilance among endowment boards [2] - The Trump administration's decision to cut federal funding to institutions like Harvard and Princeton has intensified financial pressures [3] - Some endowment managers are considering selling private equity stakes as a last resort to raise cash [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Billionaire Bill Ackman criticized Harvard's allocation to illiquid investments, suggesting the university is in a financial crisis and may have to sell private equity stakes at significant discounts [3] - Texas Tech University has ruled out selling entire fund stakes due to unacceptable low bids, considering alternative options like selling preferred shares through special purpose entities [3]

Group 1 - A recent CNN poll indicates that 59% of Americans believe President Trump's policies have worsened the economy, an increase from 51% in March [1] - 60% of respondents claim Trump's policies have raised living costs in their communities, while only 12% think they have helped lower prices [1] - Only 34% of Americans feel optimistic about the economy, with 29% expressing pessimism and 37% showing concern [1] Group 2 - A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump's approval rating has dropped to 42%, the lowest since he returned to the White House, down from 43% three weeks prior [3] - Approximately 59% of respondents feel the U.S. is losing its credibility on the global stage, and three-quarters believe Trump should not run for a third term [3] - Protests have erupted in multiple cities against the government's policies, including mass layoffs and increased tariffs, indicating widespread dissatisfaction with Trump's economic management [3][5] Group 3 - Protests have become a regular occurrence since Trump's inauguration, with over a thousand protests held across all 50 states, reflecting public discontent with his administration [5] - The number of lawsuits against the Trump administration has exceeded 150 within the first two months of his presidency, highlighting legal challenges faced by the government [5]

文 ｜ 明明 周成华 王楠茜 虽然今年4月美国国会通过了2 0 2 5财年预算决议，但该决议并不具有法律效力也不能直接拨款。预计今年预算法案需要在9月3 0 日前通过，否则国会则需通过临时拨款法案以避免政府停摆风险。特朗普减税法案今年若落地，美国财政赤字压力将进一步攀 升。市场对于财政压力的担忧以及对于通胀风险的担忧将持续导致美债利率中期限溢价以及通胀预期部分高位运行，进而1 0年 期美债利率中枢或一段时间在4 . 0%以上，后续美债利率下行空间的打开或需观察特朗普政策、美国经济承压状况和美联储表 态。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年4月1 0日美国众议院以2 1 6票对2 1 4票通过了参议院修订的2 0 2 5财年预算决议。 预算决议是国会内部指导文件，设定了政府在特定时期内的财政收支预期，不具有法律效力、无需总统签署和直接拨款。只要 参众两院通过相同的预算决议，该年度决议即被采纳。预算决议主要为后续立法确定财政方向和规模，以及为国会内部的预算 协调和审议提供基础。按照《1 9 7 4年国会预算法》，预算决议应在4月1 5日前通过，但实际较多财年未有决议通过。若无新决 议通过，前一决议的支出限额和收入下限会自动在剩 ...

特朗普重返白宫一个多月以来，其政策对美国国内外产生了巨大的冲击。一方面，特朗普以"提升政府效率"为由，对内加剧党争，试图削弱民主党及华盛顿传 统官僚体系的影响力。另一方面，在对外政策上，特朗普不断强化"美国优先"，不仅对墨西哥、巴拿马等传统势力范围施压，还向加拿大和丹麦提出领土要 求。与此同时，特朗普还改变了拜登政府"联欧抗俄"的地缘政治战略。笔者认为，要理解特朗普的上述行事逻辑，需先明确美国当前面临的几个事实。 美国当前面临的现实：实力今不如昔，内部矛盾日益激化。 美国经济长期"脱实向虚"，其工业产值在全球占比已回落至12%。制造业"硬实力"的衰落，使其对外进 行地缘干预的能力减弱，进而动摇其引以为傲的盟友体系。此外，长期滥用金融霸权不断透支美元和美债体系的信用，"AI霸权"的叙事体系也在其他国家追赶中出 现裂痕。而软硬实力衰退的结果，是其向外输出矛盾的能力减弱，加速了美国国内社会撕裂的显性化。 特朗普看似强硬，但可能只是在唱"空城计"。 本届美国政府对内试图营造"特朗普治下美国一直赢"的叙事体系，发动MAGA力量压制政治对手。对外维持"美国依 然第一"的叙事体系，"软饭硬吃、榨取盟友利益"来兑现地缘利益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the NASDAQ index, which has dropped 13% over the past four weeks, indicating concerns of an economic recession driven by tightening liquidity and weakening economic data [1] Economic Data and Trends - The Atlanta Fed has revised its Q1 GDP forecast from +3.9% to -2.4%, primarily due to declines in consumer spending and net exports [1] - Retail sales and actual personal consumption expenditure growth in January were significantly below expectations, with the proportion of credit card loans overdue by more than 90 days reaching a new high since 2012 [2] - The ISM manufacturing PMI new orders index fell by 6.5%, indicating a reversal in corporate new orders after a strong rebound post-election [2] Impact of Trump's Policies - Trump's policies are seen as having five major negative impacts on the economy: tariffs, immigration, layoffs, spending cuts, and "verbal expectation guidance" [2] - Tariffs on Mexico and Canada are predicted to significantly impact the economy, with a potential inflation increase of 0.86 percentage points by 2025 and a GDP reduction of about 0.1 percentage points [2] - Immigration policies have softened since the election, focusing mainly on deporting illegal immigrants with criminal records [3] Layoffs and Spending Cuts - The original target for spending cuts was $2 trillion, now revised to $1 trillion, with over 10,000 federal employees already laid off [4] - The layoffs are expected to have a ripple effect on state and local governments, as well as the education and healthcare sectors [4] Market Sentiment and Expectations - Trump's administration has been intentionally releasing negative expectations to guide the economy, suggesting that short-term discomfort may be acceptable for long-term structural transformation [5][6] - The trade deficit has reached a new high, which may also negatively impact Q1 GDP [7] Liquidity Concerns - The article highlights increasing liquidity pressures in the U.S. stock market, exacerbated by the Fed's balance sheet reduction and declining overnight reverse repo balances [11] - There is a noticeable shift in capital flows, with funds moving away from U.S. equities towards non-U.S. markets, particularly in China and Europe [11] Future Strategies - To counter recession expectations, the administration may focus on increasing private sector investment and expediting tax cuts to boost market confidence [13][14] - The Fed may be pressured to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, potentially ending quantitative tightening or even restarting quantitative easing [16] Investment Outlook - The article proposes a four-quadrant framework for investment strategies based on the interplay between European fiscal expansion and U.S. recession expectations [18] - Continued U.S. recession expectations alongside European fiscal expansion may lead to a bearish outlook for the dollar and U.S. equities, favoring non-U.S. markets [18]