（来源：猪易通） 立冬后气温骤降，东北、华北地区家庭猪肉采购量增加，广西、云南等地腌腊零星开启，大规模备货尚 未启动，肥猪需求增量不足。河南今日猪价由稳转弱，广东继续稳定，散户大部分稳定为主。短期有北 方挺价情绪和南方腌腊预期支撑猪价。立冬来了，猪价要涨了吗？ 600人参加2026生猪产业数据研讨会！ 500余人参与2026种仔猪采销大会！ 来源：市场资讯 山东，大场，稳定，价格6.15元/斤 山东，烟台，标6.23，中大6.45-7.56 山东，潍坊，6.123，323左右6.4 山东，泰安，6-6.12小杀6.234 山东，聊城，小杀6.234 山东，日照，标猪256的，昨天下午6.12，今早加一毛 山东，滨州，6.12 河南，洛阳，标猪5.89大猪6.23456 河南，郑州，标猪6.1 河南，信阳，400肥的 7块 河南，南阳，标猪5块9，稳定，323三元6.4 河南，济源，450斤的给6.6毛 河南，鹤壁，标猪5.9 河南，三门峡，标 5.95 河南，开封，323的也得6.34毛 河南，平顶山，410左右6.9 河南，驻马店，标猪5.9-6，430斤膘猪6.85 湖北，大场，涨1毛 湖北，武汉，6.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The supply pressure in the pig farming industry remains significant in Q4, but ongoing "anti-involution" measures are expected to positively impact pig prices in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Since May 2024, pig production capacity has increased, leading to continued supply growth expected in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, which will exert pressure on pig prices [1] - The industry is actively implementing "anti-involution" strategies, focusing on controlling production capacity, reducing weight, and limiting second breeding [1] Policy and Market Impact - The enforcement of policies is expected to intensify, coupled with recent low pig prices and increasing losses, which may accelerate the reduction of production capacity [1] - A new upward trend in pig prices is anticipated in the second half of next year [1] Industry Index Overview - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock sector [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers various sub-sectors, including livestock farming, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry experienced a decline in performance in Q3 2025, particularly in the pig farming sector, while the white chicken farming sector showed growth [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Summary - The pig farming sector generated revenue of 101.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.75% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.69% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company in the pig farming sector was 6 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 67.14% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 27.21% due to a drop in pig prices compared to the previous year [1]. - In contrast, the white chicken farming sector achieved revenue of 8.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.03% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company in the white chicken farming sector was 316 million yuan, benefiting from a recovery in chick prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side indicates that from April 2024, pig farming entered a profitable phase, with the breeding sow inventory gradually increasing. As of September 2025, the breeding sow inventory reached 40.35 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [2]. - The total pig slaughter volume from January to September 2025 was 530 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.85%, with Q3 2025 slaughter volume reaching 164 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 4.72% [2]. - The average pig price in Q3 2025 dropped to 13.83 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 28.70% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.15% [2]. - Consumer demand showed fluctuations, with a decline in July and August due to hot weather, but a recovery in September driven by back-to-school and holiday preparations [2]. Group 3: Outlook and Policy Impact - The supply side outlook suggests continued growth in breeding sow capacity from H2 2024 to H1 2025, with expectations of production capacity reduction in the industry [3]. - Recent policies from the National Development and Reform Commission aim to control breeding sow inventory and restrict pig sales to curb speculative behavior, which may lead to a reduction in production capacity among leading farming enterprises [3]. - Demand is expected to increase in Q4 due to seasonal factors, but overall growth is anticipated to be limited, with potential further declines in pig prices post-Spring Festival [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The livestock ETF (159865), which has a "pig content" of approximately 60%, is recommended for investment, as it covers the entire pig farming industry chain [4]. - Despite short-term pressures on pig prices and farming profits, the potential for accelerated reduction in breeding sow inventory and improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026 is highlighted [4]. - The ETF has seen significant inflows, with its scale surpassing 8 billion yuan, reflecting growing investor interest amid industry fluctuations and policy expectations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in pig prices is seen as a rebound rather than a reversal, with significant factors influencing this trend, including the entry of secondary fattening and market dynamics affecting supply and demand [2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - Pig prices have recently risen to over 6 yuan per kilogram, marking a significant increase after a period of decline [2]. - On the last day of October, pig prices experienced a drop, which is noteworthy compared to previous short-lived declines [2]. - The average entry rate for secondary fattening has reached between 25% to 40%, with some regions exceeding 50% [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The entry of secondary fattening has reduced the supply of market pigs, while the onset of colder weather has increased downstream pork consumption, leading to a supply decrease and demand increase [4]. - Despite the seasonal increase in pork consumption during the fourth quarter, the supply is expected to rise significantly due to high production levels and the release of stock by pig farming enterprises [10][12]. Group 3: Cost and Profitability Concerns - The cost of secondary fattening has increased due to rising pig prices, which may lead to a more cautious approach among farmers [5]. - The price gap between market pigs and larger pigs has narrowed, making it less profitable for farmers to engage in buying market pigs to sell larger ones [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market is not expected to lack pigs, as high levels of breeding sows and piglets indicate a stable supply [12]. - While there may be slight price increases in November, the market is anticipated to enter a phase of fluctuation, suggesting caution in pursuing further price hikes [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in pork prices is short-lived, with signs of a decline emerging, particularly in northern regions, while southern regions may not sustain price increases due to underlying consumption issues and excess supply [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Pork prices have seen a rapid increase but are now showing signs of weakness, particularly in northern areas, while southern regions are not expected to maintain upward momentum [2]. - The fourth quarter typically sees the highest pork consumption, but this alone may not support sustained price increases due to broader economic factors [2]. - Consumer behavior is shifting towards spending less on both discretionary and necessary items, impacting pork consumption [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The current high level of pig inventory is a significant factor in the inability to sustain pork prices, with the normal production capacity being adjusted downwards from 41 million to 39 million pigs by 2024 [4]. - The mismatch between the existing pig inventory and current market consumption levels is a primary reason for the stagnation in pork prices [4]. Group 3: Changing Consumption Patterns - Dietary habits are evolving, particularly among the aging population, leading to reduced pork consumption as older individuals prefer lighter diets [5]. - Younger consumers are also shifting towards healthier eating habits, resulting in decreased meat intake [7]. - There is a growing perception that pork quality has declined, with many consumers feeling that pork does not taste as good as it did in the past [7][11]. Group 4: Industry Practices - The shift in pig breeding practices has led to a focus on faster growth and higher lean meat yield, which has negatively impacted the flavor of pork [11]. - The traditional methods of raising pigs, which resulted in more flavorful meat, have been largely replaced by practices aimed at maximizing profitability, leading to a decline in meat quality [11][12].

Agricultural Products - The CBOT soybean prices reached a six-month high due to market expectations of China resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans, with 84% of soybeans and 72% of corn harvested as of now [1] - Domestic protein meal prices showed volatility and did not follow the upward trend of soybeans, with a slight decrease in the main contract [1] Oils - BMD palm oil prices fell for the second consecutive day, hitting a four-week low, influenced by weak surrounding markets and a rising Malaysian ringgit [2] - Domestic oil prices showed mixed results, with soybean and rapeseed oil slightly increasing while palm oil experienced a small decline [2] - High oil inventory levels and relaxed supply conditions are contributing to a weak basis in the market [2] Live Pigs - The main live pig futures contract showed a strong upward trend, with spot prices in various regions increasing, such as Heilongjiang at 12.32 CNY/kg, up 0.27 CNY/kg from the previous day [3] - The overall pig price stabilized in mid-October, supported by increased market activity and a tightening supply of larger pigs [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture indicated a decrease in pork imports and an increase in consumption, predicting a rebound in live pig and pork prices in Q4 [3] Eggs - Egg futures continued to rebound, with the main contract closing up 1.56% at 3134 CNY/500kg, supported by rising spot prices in major production areas [4] - The market shows optimistic expectations for future supply improvements, although there is still pressure from excess production capacity [4] Corn - The main corn futures contract opened lower and continued to decline, recovering the price gains from the previous week due to increased new grain supply [5][6] - Prices in the Northeast region adjusted slightly, with varying adjustments based on local supply and processing demand [5][6] - The market remains under pressure from new grain supplies, particularly in North China, where high-quality grain is favored [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, with a mid - term trend of bottoming out and then oscillating. The LH2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak pig prices and a mid - term oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the pig market shows a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a mid - term oscillating pattern [12]. - Pig demand has weakened in the short - term after the festivals, but spot prices are supported by reduced supply and may bottom out and rebound. The short - term profit of pig farming has worsened, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has decreased, supporting the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Domestic pig supply enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Bearish**: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Demand - side**: After the long holiday, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [10]. - **Price - related**: The national average spot price is 11,770 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are increasing [10].

Core Viewpoint - The pork prices in China are showing signs of recovery as the month of October comes to an end, with the current price of live pigs reaching 11.89 yuan/kg, indicating a potential return to 12 yuan/kg soon [2][9]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Pork Prices - The demand for large pigs is increasing due to a shortage in supply, despite an overall adequate supply of pigs [4][9]. - The seasonal drop in temperature has led to a surge in meat consumption, particularly for pork, as it becomes a more cost-effective option compared to beef and lamb [4][5]. - The market sentiment has improved as fears of falling prices have diminished, contributing to a more stable pricing environment [6][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current upward trend in pork prices is primarily driven by the demand for large pigs and the active participation of secondary fattening operations, which have temporarily reduced supply [9]. - Although there is a potential for prices to stabilize and gradually increase, the overall supply pressure remains due to the expected high number of pigs to be marketed in the fourth quarter [9][11]. - The lowest point for pork prices appears to have passed, with expectations for a stable market as the traditional consumption peak approaches in the fourth quarter [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs forecasts that pig prices are expected to stop declining and experience narrow fluctuations in the later part of the fourth quarter [1] Production Analysis - Since the second quarter, the number of newborn piglets has increased, leading to a peak in pig slaughter volume in the fourth quarter [1] - The previous backlog of large pigs has been cleared, and secondary fattening has decreased, resulting in a stable slaughter rhythm [1] - The increase in pork supply is lower than the increase in slaughter volume [1] Consumption Analysis - With the drop in temperature, southern regions will begin the process of curing meat, which is expected to boost pork consumption [1] Trade Analysis - Temporary anti-dumping measures have been implemented on imported pork and pork by-products from the European Union, which may further reduce pork import volumes [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic pig market is expected to see a double reduction in supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, and may bottom - out and rebound to maintain a volatile pattern in the medium - term. The LH2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 [10]. - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market shows a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a medium - term range - bound pattern [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market may experience a double reduction in supply and demand, and pig prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and may bottom - out and rebound in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on US and Canadian pork imports boost market confidence. After the festivals, the market has a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a medium - term range - bound pattern [12]. - Pork demand has weakened in the short - term after the festivals, but the spot price has returned to a volatile state due to reduced supply. The continued decline space may be limited, and it may show a bottom - out and rebound trend [12]. - The loss of domestic pig farming profits has recently expanded, reducing the short - term enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter. The double - reduction in supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [12]. - The pig spot price has remained stable after the National Day, and the futures have generally returned to a medium - term range - bound pattern. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the continued decline space of domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh - meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, large - scale farms in China have started to reduce slaughter, and it is expected that the supply of pigs and meat will decrease this week. As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - **Demand**: The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but after the long holiday, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [10]. - **Price**: The national average spot price is 10,970 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 1,225 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are increasing [10].