Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract of live hog futures, LH2605, closed at 11,600 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day. The average ex-farm price of ternary live hogs in China was 12.41 yuan/kg, slightly down 0.05 yuan/kg. The market showed a differentiated pattern with prices falling in the north and rising in the south. The prices in the north were under pressure due to the weight reduction and increased supply of leading enterprises, while the overall market in the south weakened due to the price decline in the north despite the support of reduced supply at the beginning of the month. Currently, it is difficult to sell standard hogs, while the transactions of large hogs are relatively smooth, but the incremental demand from terminal slaughterhouses is limited, providing insufficient support to the market. Overall, it is expected that the hog price will continue to adjust weakly tomorrow. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of small farmers and the actual supply reduction of group enterprises [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of live hog futures contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,255, 11,160, 11,600, 12,170, 13,055, and 12,960 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they decreased by 95, 60, 35, 60, 115, and 130 respectively, with decline rates of -0.71%, -0.53%, -0.30%, -0.49%, -0.87%, and -0.99% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 255, 38,906, 42,182, 6,909, 9,631, and 4,253 respectively, and the open interests were 1,531, 92,241, 137,621, 50,135, 36,512, and 20,997 respectively. The changes in open interest were +100, -3,709, +7,133, +1,573, +1,747, and +1,173 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 2,095, -440, -570, -885, 95, and -295 respectively, compared with the previous values of 2,130, -415, -595, -940, 80, and -260 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of live hogs in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 12.54, 11.86, 12.36, 12.41, 12.48, and 12.59 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, they changed by -0.35, -23.8, 0.06, 0.01, 0.05, and -0.26 respectively [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the day before was 100, an increase of 100 compared with two days ago [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in pork prices may not be sustainable, as the market dynamics suggest limited growth potential due to changing consumption patterns and supply pressures [2][4]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - The recent price increase is not characterized by significant or sustained growth, indicating a potential short-lived trend [4]. - The peak consumption period has become shorter, with a noticeable decline in the traditional spike in pork consumption around the New Year [5]. - Consumer behavior has shifted towards more dispersed purchasing, with many opting to buy in advance due to concerns over potential price increases [6]. - There is a trend of reduced meat consumption, leading to smaller meal preparations and less overall demand during the pre-holiday period [8]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The pressure on supply is increasing as previously held back pigs are now being released into the market, coinciding with a shorter consumption peak [9]. - Despite expectations for increased consumption before the holiday, the simultaneous increase in supply limits the potential for significant price hikes [10]. Group 3: Price Movement - The market is likely to experience fluctuating price movements due to the mismatch between supply and demand, resulting in a volatile pricing environment [12]. - Overall, while there is an upward trend in prices, the rate and extent of increase are expected to be slower compared to previous months [12].

Group 1 - The overall pig price in January was initially strong but started to decline towards the end of the month, currently hovering around 12.6 yuan/kg, moving further away from the 13 yuan/kg threshold [2] - Despite the approach of the Chinese New Year, which typically boosts pork prices due to increased consumption, the market has experienced five consecutive price drops [3][10] - The decline in prices is attributed to weak consumer demand while the supply side is under pressure, with some producers holding back on sales in anticipation of higher prices during the holiday [6][10] Group 2 - After a brief price adjustment post-New Year, the pig price continued to rise due to reduced supply from large pig farming enterprises and increased holding back by some farmers [5][6] - As the Chinese New Year approaches, expectations in the market have shifted, with larger enterprises focusing on overall profitability rather than solely on holiday sales, leading to increased sales to meet targets [7] - Overall pork consumption has not shown significant improvement, with only a slight increase in slaughterhouse operating rates [9] Group 3 - The pressure on farmers has led to some selling off their stock, contributing to the ongoing price decline, although the overall drop in prices is expected to be limited [10][11] - There is still market expectation for consumption to improve, albeit likely below previous years' levels, with a trend of shorter stocking periods observed [12] - Rising costs for feed, such as corn and soybean meal, have increased the psychological resistance to price drops among farmers, suggesting that prices may stabilize or rise as consumption increases closer to the holiday [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in pig prices are attributed to supply constraints reaching their limits, while downstream consumption has not shown significant improvement, leading to limited upward momentum in prices [2]. Supply Analysis - The supply pressure for February is expected to be low, as January's price increase was primarily due to reduced market supply. The theoretical outflow for January corresponds to last year's March production capacity, which saw a significant decline in breeding sows [4]. - February's theoretical outflow aligns with last year's April production capacity, which also experienced a decrease, indicating that supply pressure will remain manageable [4]. Demand Analysis - February is expected to see a notable increase in consumption due to the Spring Festival, with both previously held back and newly fattened pigs being released into the market. However, the timing of supply and demand increases may not align perfectly [6]. - The uncertainty surrounding consumer demand remains a critical factor, as the extent of consumption growth is unpredictable despite potentially lower pork prices stimulating some increase [7][8]. Market Sentiment - Historical trends indicate that market sentiment often drives pig prices more than supply and demand fundamentals during the Spring Festival, with increased slaughter rates and higher order volumes from distributors expected [6]. - However, the overall price increase is anticipated to be limited due to the uncertain nature of consumer demand and the expectation that supply growth will outpace demand growth [10].

Core Viewpoint - The pig prices in China have surged, reaching an average of 12.99 yuan/kg, with expectations of a slowdown in price increases after surpassing 13 yuan/kg due to high supply levels and limited consumer demand [2][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of the end of 2025, the national pig stock is projected to be 42.967 million heads, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, while total meat production is expected to reach 100.72 million tons, a 4.2% increase, marking the first time it exceeds 100 million tons [2]. - Pork production is estimated at 59.38 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, while poultry meat production has increased by 6.7%, indicating a competitive supply landscape [4]. Market Conditions - The current market is characterized by an early supply surge, with consumer demand not yet picking up as it is still early in the lunar month, leading to limited market absorption capacity [4]. - As pig prices rise, slaughterhouses are experiencing increased pressure, resulting in a decreased willingness to purchase at high prices [4]. Profitability and Resistance to Price Decline - The current profitability for self-breeding farmers is approximately 7.4 yuan per pig, marking a return to profitability for the first time since September of the previous year, which may lead to resistance against price declines [5][6]. - Farmers are unlikely to accept significant price drops after achieving profitability, indicating a strong psychological barrier against falling prices [6]. Supply Gaps - There remains a notable gap in the supply of medium to large pigs due to previous market fluctuations, which has not been effectively addressed [8][9]. - The lack of sufficient medium to large pigs could provide support for pig prices once consumer demand increases [9]. Future Price Outlook - Caution is advised regarding potential price increases beyond 13 yuan/kg, as both supply and demand are expected to rise, which may lead to a slowdown in price growth [10]. - Recent data indicates that the reduction in breeding capacity has slowed, with only 290,000 fewer breeding sows reported from October to December, which may impact the overall market dynamics [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The supply-demand mismatch leads to a situation where prices are strong but volumes are weak, with seasonal support and tight supply of large pigs supporting the price center for pigs. The average price of live pigs in China as of January 16, 2026, is 12.77 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.19 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 3.01% [3][13] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost demand for pet products, with sales likely to improve marginally in January due to the delayed timing of the New Year shopping festival [4][25] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The seasonal support combined with tight supply of large pigs is expected to stabilize pig prices. The average price of white strips has recovered to 16.65 CNY/kg, and the price difference for white strips has increased to approximately 3.96 CNY/kg, indicating improved seasonal consumption support [3][13][14] Market Performance (January 12-16) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 2.82 percentage points, with the agricultural index declining by 3.27% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%. The animal health sector led the gains [6][26] Key News (January 12-16) - U.S. corn futures experienced the largest decline since 2024 due to an unexpected increase in U.S. production forecasts by the USDA. Additionally, the introduction of grandparent white feather chickens has been completely halted due to avian influenza, with no timeline for resumption [5][32] Price Tracking (January 12-16) - The average price of live pigs was 12.78 CNY/kg, up 1.19% from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 21.99 CNY/kg, up 7.85% week-on-week. The average price of white strips was 17.00 CNY/kg, also up 0.15% [7][34] Major Meat Import Volumes - In November 2025, pork imports totaled 60,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34.3%. Chicken imports were 6,400 tons, down 83.7% year-on-year [53][55] Feed Production - In November 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 28.73 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% [56]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current controversies in the pig market, particularly focusing on the supply-demand dynamics and the potential for pig prices to rise before the Chinese New Year, despite an overall supply surplus [2]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - There is a notable shortage of medium and large pigs due to previous reductions in the number of large pigs being raised [4]. - The continuous decline in pig prices since October last year has led to a decrease in the proportion of large pigs, as they are less cost-effective to sell [4]. - Significant outflows of medium and large pigs occurred during the winter solstice and New Year, contributing to the current supply gap [4][5]. Group 2: Price Trends - Current pig prices have risen to approximately 12.7 yuan per kilogram, with the likelihood of reaching 13 yuan increasing due to the supply shortage [7]. - The price of piglets has surged recently, indicating a market expectation of higher future pig prices, which contributes to bullish sentiment among farmers [8]. - The overall affordability of pork this year is expected to stimulate some increase in consumption, further supporting pig prices [9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and External Factors - There is a growing bullish sentiment in the market, driven by rising piglet prices and the anticipation of increased demand as the Chinese New Year approaches [8]. - The northern pig prices have remained strong, suggesting a balanced supply-demand situation, which could lead to increased demand for southern pigs if northern prices continue to rise [11]. - Various minor factors are contributing to the potential for pig prices to rise, although significant upward pressure is limited due to high overall supply and frozen product inventories [11].

Core Insights - The average price of external three-yuan pigs in China on January 13, 2026, is 12.73 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The average price of piglets is 21.33 yuan/kg, which has risen by 0.49 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [1] - The average price of white strip meat remains stable at 16.95 yuan/kg [1] Price Trends - Prices in the southwest and northwest regions are showing weakness, while the northern regions are relatively strong [2] - The overall market sentiment is stable, with some large-scale farms in the north implementing slight price increases [2] - The pig feed ratio is steady at 3.81:1, indicating stable feed costs [1] Market Dynamics - The supply and demand for pigs are both increasing, making it difficult for prices to rise or fall significantly, leading to expectations of narrow fluctuations in the short term [3] - As the month progresses, the outflow of pigs from farms is expected to increase, with potential pressure on prices in the latter half of the month [2] - Consumer demand is anticipated to remain stable, with a slight decline in demand from urban restaurants and canteens, while household consumption is expected to rise [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry is expected to see a peak in hog slaughtering in late January, with prices anticipated to slightly rise from the bottom before the Lunar New Year. In December 2025, the national average selling price of hogs was 11.59 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.84% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.23% [5][15] - The December hog slaughter volume was 5.93 million heads, which is a month-on-month increase of 18.68% and a year-on-year increase of 3.50% [15] - The overall supply pressure is expected to ease due to increased slaughtering in late December, leading to a slight price increase for hogs, although the upward potential remains limited [5][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry anticipates a peak in hog slaughtering in late January, with prices expected to rise slightly from the bottom before the Lunar New Year. The December 2025 national average selling price of hogs was 11.59 yuan/kg, down 0.84% month-on-month and down 26.23% year-on-year [5][15] - The December hog slaughter volume was 5.93 million heads, up 18.68% month-on-month and 3.50% year-on-year [15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of large hogs is expected to remain ample, with the proportion of hogs over 150 kg slightly higher than the same period in 2024. As of January 1, 2026, the proportion of hogs over 150 kg was 6.76%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.25 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0.03 percentage points [6][18] - The demand recovery, combined with reduced weight slaughtering, has led to an increase in the price difference for hogs. However, high frozen product inventory levels may suppress future hog prices, with the national frozen product inventory rate at 19.89%, up 4.93 percentage points year-on-year [21][23] Financial Performance of Listed Companies - In December 2025, 12 listed hog farming companies collectively slaughtered 17.6075 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 8.86%. The individual slaughter volumes varied significantly among companies, with some experiencing substantial growth while others faced declines [29][30] - The average selling prices of major listed hog companies in December showed a month-on-month decline, with prices ranging from 10.66 to 12.21 yuan/kg, reflecting various percentage changes [36][37]

Market Overview - As of January 9, the profit from self-bred pigs was a loss of 11.54 yuan per head, improving from a loss of 34.59 yuan per head the previous week. The profit from purchased piglets was a loss of 2.31 yuan per head, compared to a loss of 48.35 yuan per head the prior week [1] - The average daily price of live pigs in China was 12.6 yuan per kilogram, with a slight increase of 0.02 yuan per kilogram week-on-week. In Henan, the benchmark delivery price was 12.98 yuan per kilogram, showing a decrease of 0.02 yuan per kilogram [1] Institutional Insights - According to Chaos Tiancheng Futures, the recent pig market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with reduced volatility in the spot market post-New Year. The basic indicators for pig prices are expected to strengthen as market sentiment cools, with supply potentially increasing in mid-January. Close attention is needed on the actual versus planned slaughter rates and the upcoming Spring Festival stocking demand [3] - Nanhua Futures noted that the price of standard pigs had rebounded slightly due to limited entry of new pigs and some reluctance to sell among larger producers. However, without significant improvements in supply-demand dynamics, pig prices are expected to remain low and fluctuate within a narrow range [4]