走进位于泰国北部的楠府万萨县的农业技术中心，郁郁葱葱的林子里，分布着十几栋简易大棚。除了猪 仔饲育实验基地，这里还有本地红牛与水牛研究、山羊饲养与羊奶加工、植物育苗、蚯蚓与青蛙养殖等 项目。这所农业技术中心占地面积2116莱（1莱约合2.4亩），由泰国朱拉隆功大学于2005年创建，为楠 府全部15个县提供技术帮助，包括家畜养殖、林木种植等方面。 记者到达楠府农业技术中心时，遇到楠府萨宁镇几十名村民来参加培训，学习家猪饲养方法。"在这里 可以学到整个饲养过程，把猪养得更好，卖上更高的价钱。"村民甘达说，"通过培训，我们几个农场主 打算联合起来建一个大一点的养猪场。"据了解，农业技术中心与当地县镇政府长期合作，或派技术员 下乡传授农业技术，或组织村民前来培训。 塔纳瓦的小型养猪场位于楠府塔旺帕县的一个小村庄。青山四周环抱，中间是绿油油的稻田，门口挂着 的"标准养猪场"的牌子十分醒目。"小猪饲养4个月就能长到80公斤，每公斤80泰铢（1美元约合32泰 铢），一头猪能卖好几千泰铢呢。大的那4头已经养了两年，下了不少猪仔。"塔纳瓦对记者说，养猪场 的发展离不开农业技术中心，工作人员不仅送猪仔、教技能，还经常来村里实地指 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][32]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Haida Group, is positioned as a high-quality asset in the agricultural and animal husbandry sector, with a focus on expanding its business from feed production to a comprehensive agricultural industry chain [3][32]. - The company aims to achieve a total feed sales volume of 14.7 million tons by the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25%, significantly exceeding the national growth rate of 7.7% [3]. - The company is actively responding to the "Belt and Road" initiative, expanding its international market presence, with overseas feed sales expected to grow by 40% to 2.4 million tons in 2024 [3][9]. - The management team is noted for its significant advantages, focusing on stable core business operations while exploring new business opportunities within the multi-trillion yuan agricultural market [3][32]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Haida Group has been deeply involved in the agricultural and animal husbandry industry for nearly 30 years, establishing a closed-loop industrial chain that includes feed, seedlings, animal health, breeding, and processing [4]. - The company reported a revenue of 58.83 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, with a net profit of 2.64 billion yuan, up 24.2% [4][8]. Business Segments - The feed segment achieved a revenue of 47.14 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 9.79% [8]. - The company’s feed sales volume reached 14.7 million tons in the first half of 2025, marking a 25% increase compared to the previous year, and its market share rose from 8.41% in 2024 to 9.27% [8][9]. - The agricultural product sales segment reported a revenue of 9.735 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.26% [10]. Future Growth and Projections - The company aims for a total feed sales volume of over 30 million tons by 2025, with a mid-term goal of reaching 51.5 million tons by 2030 [9]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.161 billion yuan, 5.868 billion yuan, and 6.665 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.10 yuan, 3.53 yuan, and 4.01 yuan [3][30][32]. - The company is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% in overseas markets from 2024 to 2030 [3][9]. Management and Operational Efficiency - The company has established a highly efficient organizational structure that integrates procurement, research and development, sales, and production, which enhances its responsiveness to market demands [16][24]. - The management team has demonstrated a strong ability to maintain high asset turnover rates, with an average ROE of 19% from 2017 to 2024 [16][18].

Economic Overview - Inner Mongolia's GDP for the first half of the year reached 1,207.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 40.6 billion yuan, growing by 5.5% year-on-year; the secondary industry added value was 553.72 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.3%; the tertiary industry added value was 613.45 billion yuan, increasing by 4.6% [1] Agricultural Sector - Agricultural and pastoral production showed stable growth, with the added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increasing by 5.5% year-on-year [1] - The production of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry reached 1.088 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%; milk production increased by 3.6% [1] Industrial Sector - The industrial sector maintained steady growth, with the added value of large-scale industries increasing by 7.1% year-on-year [2] - The new energy and related industries saw a significant increase in added value, growing by 18.8% year-on-year [2] Service Sector - The service sector's added value grew by 4.6% year-on-year, with large-scale service industry revenue increasing by 9.8% from January to May [3] - Measures were implemented to enhance service supply and innovation, contributing to the sector's sustained development [2] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 14.8% year-on-year, with the primary industry investment growing by 47.2%, secondary industry by 15.3%, and tertiary industry by 9.1% [3] - Social retail sales totaled 250.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, with urban retail sales increasing by 7.6% and rural retail sales by 8.5% [3] Income Growth - The per capita disposable income for residents reached 20,042 yuan, showing a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the high-quality development of the pig industry, recommending "platform + ecological" service-oriented enterprises like Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry [4][18] - The Ministry of Agriculture held a meeting on July 23 to promote high-quality development in the pig industry, focusing on reducing breeding capacity, controlling new production capacity, and enhancing the competitiveness of the entire industry chain [6][60] - The report indicates that the pig price is currently at 14.1 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease in average weight to 128.48 kg, and a 15 kg piglet priced at 542 CNY/head, reflecting weak demand and a slight price drop [5][17] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is 14.1 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease in average weight to 128.48 kg, and a 15 kg piglet priced at 542 CNY/head. Weak demand has led to a slight price drop, with a 0.8% decrease in the national pig inventory in June, indicating a potential reduction in pig output in July and August [5][17] - The Ministry of Agriculture's meeting emphasized high-quality development, including reducing breeding capacity, strengthening disease prevention, and promoting resource utilization [6][18] - The report suggests that companies with cost advantages and strong connections with farmers may enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums, recommending Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry and leading pig farming companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [18] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of chicken seedlings in Yantai is 2.5 CNY/chick, up 39% month-on-month but down 28% year-on-year. The price of broiler chickens is 3.43 CNY/kg, up 3.9% month-on-month but down 11.4% year-on-year. Demand pressure is easing, and if supply contracts in Q3, prices may rebound [19] - The report highlights the ongoing contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption" in the white feather chicken industry, with losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization, which is expected to lead to growth in volume and profit [21] 4. Pet Industry - In June, exports of dog and cat food decreased by 13.8% year-on-year, totaling 29,000 tons, with revenue of 820 million CNY (approximately 110 million USD), down 20.2% year-on-year [22][24] - The report notes that while there are concerns about export fluctuations due to tariff uncertainties, long-term prospects remain positive for domestic brands like Guibao and Zhongchong [24] 5. Agricultural Products - The report discusses uncertainties in soybean imports for Q4 and the upward trend in rubber prices, with natural rubber prices breaking through 15,000 CNY/ton [28]

Core Insights - The latest USDA drought report indicates that various major agricultural regions in the U.S. are experiencing drought conditions ranging from moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) as of July 15, 2025, significantly impacting grain, cash crops, and livestock [1] Grain Sector - Durum Wheat: 41% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week, but up 35 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Spring Wheat: 36% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 28 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Winter Wheat: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous week and up 6 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Corn: 9% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the previous week but up 4 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Soybeans: 7% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week but up 2 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Barley: 59% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but up 33 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Sorghum: 7% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but down 14 percentage points year-on-year [9] - Rice: 1% of the production area is affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and the same as last year [10] Cash Crop Sector - Cotton: 3% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but down 16 percentage points year-on-year [11] - Peanuts: 1% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and down 14 percentage points year-on-year [12] - Sunflowers: 8% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 5 percentage points year-on-year [13] - Sugarbeets: 39% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 36 percentage points year-on-year [14] - Sugarcane: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 30 percentage points year-on-year [15] Livestock Sector - Hay: 18% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week but up 2 percentage points year-on-year [16] - Alfalfa Hay: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 13 percentage points year-on-year [17] - Cattle: 15% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week and unchanged year-on-year [18] - Sheep: 29% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 9 percentage points year-on-year [18] - Milk Cows: 22% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 10 percentage points year-on-year [19] - Hogs: 4% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week and down 3 percentage points year-on-year [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the A-share market, suggesting potential for a breakthrough of last year's high points in the second half of the year, driven by favorable policies and low valuations [1][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in GDP by 1.3% year-on-year in Q2, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of negative growth, primarily due to a downturn in the construction sector and reduced export contributions, while investment and consumption showed some improvement [1][3]. - A strong performance in the A-share market is noted, attributed to market sentiment and liquidity, with a recommendation to adopt a dual strategy of retaining dividend assets and strategically positioning in sectors like AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and non-ferrous metals [1][6]. - Financial data for June indicates a recovery in credit demand, with social financing and loans exceeding expectations, reflecting improved corporate cash flow and consumer risk appetite [11][13]. Economic Performance - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a slowdown in growth rate compared to previous months, influenced by e-commerce promotional activities [2][21]. - The report notes a mixed performance in the real estate market, with a 2% year-on-year decline in the second-hand housing market, indicating ongoing pressure on housing prices and a potential for policy intervention [1][18][20]. Sector Analysis - The report identifies AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and non-ferrous metals as sectors with promising growth prospects and investment value, likely to benefit from economic recovery [1][6]. - The commodity market shows a varied performance, with energy sectors like crude oil and natural gas experiencing growth, while agricultural products like soybean meal face downward pressure [8][9]. Financial Market Outlook - The bond market is viewed positively, with expectations of a downward adjustment in benchmark interest rates, potentially leading to lower yields on government bonds [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy-driven financial tools and real estate stimulus measures as key factors influencing future financial data trends [17].

Group 1 - The extreme heat is posing a comprehensive challenge to production lines, affecting employee safety, equipment stability, raw material storage, and product transportation [1][2] - Companies are implementing measures such as slowing down production lines, increasing rest periods, and enhancing equipment inspections to ensure operational efficiency during high temperatures [1][2] - The industrial electricity demand is rapidly increasing due to sustained high temperatures, making the stability of power supply crucial for industrial operations [2][3] Group 2 - Companies are proactively preparing for high temperatures by developing summer safety management measures and conducting emergency drills to mitigate risks associated with equipment failures and increased energy consumption [2][3] - The integration of electrification, automation, and intelligence in production lines allows companies to respond flexibly to order demands without production issues [2][3] - The national peak electricity load is expected to increase by approximately 10 million kilowatts compared to the previous year, necessitating close monitoring of weather changes and power supply dynamics [3] Group 3 - Agricultural sectors are also facing challenges due to high temperatures, with farmers closely monitoring crop conditions and preparing irrigation plans in case of prolonged drought [4][5] - Livestock management is being adjusted to prevent heat stress, with recommendations for better feeding practices and environmental controls to ensure animal welfare during extreme heat [5][6] - The National Climate Center emphasizes the need for comprehensive measures to manage water resources and mitigate risks to crop yields from high temperatures [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pig price has retreated from its high, with the latest price at 14.94 CNY/kg and the average weight at 128.64 kg. The complete cost for leading enterprises has decreased to around 12 CNY/kg, indicating a potential for profit maintenance and valuation recovery [6][17][18] - The report emphasizes a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [18] - The report recommends focusing on companies with a "platform + ecosystem" model, highlighting DeKang Agriculture and Livestock as a representative, along with leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [18] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is 14.94 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in average weight to 128.64 kg. The price of 15 kg piglets remains stable at around 530 CNY/head. The industry is experiencing a short-term rebound in prices after a slight decline [6][17] - The official number of breeding sows in May was 40.42 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.15%, indicating a stable production capacity [7][17] - The report suggests that the government's commitment to stabilizing pig prices is strong, and capacity regulation may continue to increase [7][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent stock chicks remains high, with the latest price at 47.93 CNY, a week-on-week increase of 5.25%. The price of broilers is 2.95 CNY/kg, down 12% week-on-week and 18% year-on-year [19] - The industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, leading to a reduction in production capacity among breeding farms [19] - The report highlights two main lines of focus: quality imported breeding stock leaders and fully integrated industry leaders [19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Hai Da Group, noting a cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The demand for aquaculture feed is expected to recover in 2025 [20][22] - The report indicates that the domestic capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [21][22] 4. Pet Industry - The report discusses the impact of potential tariffs on the pet industry, suggesting that the actual impact will be limited due to high profit margins and overseas factory layouts [23] - Companies with strong performance in their own brands, such as Guibao and Zhongchong, are highlighted as key focuses [23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight reduction in soybean planting area for 2025, with a forecast of 83.4 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [24] - The report emphasizes that agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, and a reduction in imports may help prices rise from low levels [24] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3982 points, up 1.54% from the previous week. The Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2729 points, up 2.55% [25][28] - The report notes that the aquaculture sector performed the best with a 5.13% increase [25]

Group 1: Core Views on Pig Cycle - The stability of pig prices since the beginning of the year indicates a near balance between supply and demand, influenced by the number of breeding sows, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [1] - The pig cycle consists of efficiency and breeding cycles, where the efficiency cycle reflects production efficiency affected by winter diseases, and the breeding cycle shows a strong correlation between the number of breeding sows and price changes [1][2] - The current phase is characterized by a downward trend in pig prices and capacity reduction, with attention needed on price declines, industry losses, and potential policy impacts [2] Group 2: Investment Outlook in Pig Sector - The pig sector is currently in a capacity reduction phase, which historically corresponds to strong stock performance [3] - Major stocks in the sector are at relatively low valuations, and factors such as price declines, disease situations, and policy changes could act as catalysts for stock price increases [3] - Selection of individual stocks should consider funding, cost, and growth balance, with a focus on companies with cost advantages likely to see long-term valuation increases [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that pig prices may stabilize before declining towards the end of the year, with a focus on capacity reduction as the current industry theme, emphasizing the importance of price, policy, and disease as catalysts [1]. Group 1: Price Stability and Trends - Year-to-date price stability indicates a near balance between supply and demand, influenced by the number of breeding sows, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [1]. - The pig cycle is defined by the breeding cycle and efficiency cycle, with historical price trends showing that efficiency cycles can lead to price turning points around April and peaks in Q3 [1][2]. Group 2: Price Outlook - The efficiency cycle will still impact prices in 2025, but to a lesser extent than in previous years, leading to a stable to slightly strong price in the middle of the year, followed by increased downward pressure in the latter half [2]. - Historical patterns indicate that piglet prices typically decline around June, and the assumption that hot weather will lead to price drops has not held true in recent summers [2]. Group 3: Industry Capacity and Investment Opportunities - The industry is currently in a capacity reduction phase, which is historically the best-performing stage for pig cycle stocks [3]. - Major stocks within the sector are currently valued at relatively low historical levels, with potential catalysts for price increases including price declines, disease situations, and policy changes [3]. - Investment selection should consider factors such as funding, cost, and growth, with a focus on companies with cost advantages likely to see long-term relative valuation increases [3].