转自：新华社 新华社巴黎2月24日电 专访｜农业是连接法中两国的重要纽带——访法国农业专家托马·帕维 新华社记者崔可欣 这种纽带如今已延伸至经济与科技合作领域。帕维长期研究动物育种，他举例说，通过对牛、猪等物种 遗传资源进行跨国合作与杂交改良，可以实现优势互补。 帕维说，法国有"火腿之国"之称，其中也蕴含着"中国基因"的贡献，"如今法国的猪，其实都有一点中 国血统"。法中合作杂交培育出的新品种猪兼具两国各自品种的优势；改良后的法国猪种再出口至中 国，服务当地养殖业升级，形成双向互动的良性循环。 与此同时，中国水产品也被搬上法国人的餐桌。法国市场上相当比例的鱼类、虾类产品来自中国，这些 产品早已融入当地消费者日常生活。在帕维看来，这种"你中有我、我中有你"的格局，体现了两国农业 结构的高度互补与深度融合。 正因如此，帕维指出，在气候变化、环境压力和地缘政治不确定性交织的背景下，农业合作战略意义凸 显。 他高度评价中国在农业机器人和智能装备领域的发展。"中国在农业机器人应用方面走在前列，法国也 在积极推进精准农业。双方可以加强技术交流，共同提升效率、节水抗旱、减少碳排放。"在他看来， 各国加强协作是应对全球性挑战 ...

他特别提到一个汉字——"家"，这个字的象形寓意令他印象深刻。在农耕时代的法国，牲畜同样意味着 成家立业的基础，婚嫁中的嫁妆往往是一头猪或一头牛。帕维认为，这种跨越欧亚大陆的文化共鸣反映 出，农业是连接法中两国的重要纽带。 这种纽带如今已延伸至经济与科技合作领域。帕维长期研究动物育种，他举例说，通过对牛、猪等物种 遗传资源进行跨国合作与杂交改良，可以实现优势互补。 帕维说，法国有"火腿之国"之称，其中也蕴含着"中国基因"的贡献，"如今法国的猪，其实都有一点中 国血统"。法中合作杂交培育出的新品种猪兼具两国各自品种的优势；改良后的法国猪种再出口至中 国，服务当地养殖业升级，形成双向互动的良性循环。 与此同时，中国水产品也被搬上法国人的餐桌。法国市场上相当比例的鱼类、虾类产品来自中国，这些 产品早已融入当地消费者日常生活。在帕维看来，这种"你中有我、我中有你"的格局，体现了两国农业 结构的高度互补与深度融合。 新华社记者崔可欣 "农业不仅关乎土地与餐桌，还关乎文明与和平。"法国全国农业和海产品管理局畜牧育种和乳业代表托 马·帕维日前接受新华社记者专访时，用这句话介绍他对法中农业合作的理解。 新华社巴黎2月24日电 ...

宏 观 研 究 通胀数据 2026 年 02 月 11 日 如何理解 1 月通胀分化？ —— 通胀数据点评（26.01） 事件：2 月 11 日，国家统计局公布 1 月通胀数据，CPI 同比 0.2%、前值 0.8%、预期 0.4%、 环比 0.2%；PPI 同比-1.4%、前值-1.9%、预期-1.5%、环比 0.4%。 相比之下，煤油等大宗商品价格、中下游 PPI 表现偏弱。国际原油价格下行影响国内石油 开采、精炼石油产品制造价格分别下降 3.1%和 2.5%，油价拖累 PPI 环比-0.08%，煤价 也有走弱，拖累 PPI 环比-0.15%。中下游产能利用率也未明显改善，导致上游涨价对中 下游的拉动相对有限，测算中下游仅拉动 PPI 环比 0.1%。 受春节错位的影响，1 月 CPI 同比明显回落；但剔除该因素后，CPI 整体仍偏弱。统计局 测算本轮基期轮换对每月 CPI 同比的影响是 0.06 个百分点。今年春节假期与 2025 年形成 错位，导致 1 月同比较前月回落 0.6 个百分点至 0.2%。而 1 月 CPI 环比仅 0.2%、明显低 于往年春节前月的 CPI 表现（0.6%），反映整体 C ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has reached a consensus on international development, prioritizing "going global" as a key strategic direction and has formed a dedicated exploration team [1] Group 1: International Expansion Strategy - The company plans to initially focus on expanding its chicken business internationally, with future plans to gradually extend to pig and duck industries [1] - The company is leveraging its years of overseas experience and channel resources in animal health, agricultural equipment, and environmental protection to explore international markets [1] Group 2: Market Engagement - The company has initiated preliminary discussions with enterprises and government departments in countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, India, and South Korea [1] - Various cooperation models are being explored, including product trade exports, technology output, and joint ventures for factory establishment [1] Group 3: Market Potential - The company believes that the global demand for livestock and poultry products is continuously growing, indicating a vast overseas market with long-term strategic value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has committed to international expansion as a key strategic direction, focusing initially on the poultry business while planning to gradually expand into other sectors such as pork and duck farming [1] Group 1: International Strategy - The company's board has reached a consensus on the importance of "going global" and has established a dedicated exploration team [1] - The company aims to leverage its years of experience and channel resources in animal health, agricultural equipment, and environmental protection to drive its international initiatives [1] Group 2: Market Engagement - The company has initiated preliminary discussions with enterprises and government departments in countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, India, and South Korea [1] - Various cooperation models are being explored, including product trade exports, technology transfer, and joint ventures for factory establishment [1] Group 3: Market Potential - The company believes that the global demand for livestock and poultry products is continuously growing, indicating a vast overseas market with long-term strategic value [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown signs of recovery, with the agricultural index rising by 2.23%, ranking 11th among 31 primary industries [12][15]. - The pig price has experienced fluctuations, initially strong but later declining, with an average price of 12.83 CNY/kg for the week, down 1.06% from the previous week [6][17]. - The white feather chicken market has seen a rebound in chick prices, with an average price of 2.7 CNY/chick, and a rise in broiler chicken prices to 3.85 CNY/kg, up 4.05% from the previous week [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector has rebounded, with the agricultural index increasing by 2.23% [12]. - The pig farming sector continues to face challenges, with a decline in prices despite some recovery in demand [15]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs - The average pig price fluctuated between 12.9 and 13.0 CNY/kg, ending the week at 12.51 CNY/kg [6][17]. - The average weight of pigs at market was 127.86 kg, down 1.03 kg from the previous week [19]. - The breeding capacity is slowly decreasing, with a December count of 39.61 million breeding sows, down 1.83% from Q3 [20]. 2.2 White Feather Chicken - Chick prices have rebounded to 2.7 CNY/chick, while broiler prices have increased to 3.85 CNY/kg [30]. - The supply of breeding chickens remains sufficient, with 40% of the annual breeding stock imported [30]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - The national average price for white sugar is 5295 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 10 CNY/ton [34]. - The price of corn has slightly increased to 2314 CNY/ton, up 4 CNY/ton from the previous week [34].

Core Viewpoint - Aonong Biological (603363.SH) forecasts a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a range of 90 million to 135 million yuan, which represents a decrease of 76.70% to 84.47% compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected net profit for 2025 is between 90 million and 135 million yuan, a decrease of 44.4345 million to 48.9345 million yuan from the previous year [1] - The decline in profit is attributed to the company's first year post-restructuring, with some assets still not operational, leading to depreciation and amortization costs of approximately 80 million yuan [1] Group 2: Operational Changes - The company has undergone bankruptcy restructuring, significantly reducing its debt and interest expenses year-on-year [1] - Aonong has divested some idle assets and is in the process of resuming operations at its breeding farms, with a rapid recovery in the sow inventory and improved production performance [1] - Major business segments, including pig farming, feed, and slaughtering, have shown signs of recovery and restructuring, solidifying the operational foundation [1] Group 3: Loss Provisions - The company has made provisions for bad debts and asset impairments amounting to approximately 200 million yuan for the year [1] - The benefits from debt restructuring are expected to decline significantly compared to 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that while pig prices are rebounding during the peak season, the extent of the increase has narrowed due to ongoing capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, which is slowing down [1] - The pig farming industry is expected to continue capacity reduction under the pressures of rising epidemic risks and policy constraints [1] - The white chicken industry has a high capacity level, suggesting that chicken prices may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, while the yellow chicken industry is at historically low capacity levels, potentially leading to price increases [1] Group 2 - In the animal health sector, core antibiotic prices have recently experienced high-level fluctuations [1] - In the planting industry chain, grain prices of various types have recently increased, and are expected to trend upward in the medium term due to domestic and international factors, which will also support seed price increases [1] - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and veterinary medicine to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Rural Work Conference emphasizes the importance of agricultural modernization for China's overall modernization, urging accelerated construction of a strong agricultural nation and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization [1] Agricultural and Rural Economic Development - Agricultural production shows steady growth, with the value added in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increasing by 4.1% in 2025, contributing 0.3 percentage points to economic growth [2] - Grain production reached a new high in 2025, with a total output of 14,297.5 billion jin, an increase of 167.5 billion jin or 1.2% from the previous year, maintaining over 1.3 trillion jin for 11 consecutive years [2] Income and Consumption - Rural residents' per capita disposable income reached 24,456 yuan in 2025, with a nominal growth of 5.8% and a real growth of 6.0%, indicating a faster growth rate than urban residents [3] - The income gap between urban and rural residents continues to narrow, with the ratio of per capita disposable income decreasing from 2.50 in 2021 to 2.31 in 2025 [3] Agricultural Product Prices and Trade - Agricultural product prices have generally declined, with the overall agricultural product production price index down by 3.7% year-on-year in 2025 [4] - The total import and export value of agricultural products was $311.57 billion in 2025, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 1.2% to $104.16 billion [5] Agricultural Technology and Innovation - The mechanization level of crop farming reached 76.7% in 2025, with agricultural technology contributing 64% to agricultural growth [6] - The number of agricultural drones exceeded 300,000, significantly aiding in reducing pesticide usage by approximately 30% [7] Rural Infrastructure and Public Services - Rural infrastructure has improved, with a 96% coverage rate for tap water in rural areas and significant investments in rural construction projects [10] - The number of rural mutual aid elderly care facilities exceeded 140,000, and 97% of village health clinics are included in the medical insurance reimbursement system [11] Future Outlook - Agricultural value-added is expected to grow at a rate of 6.32% in 2026, with urban and rural residents' disposable income projected to increase by 4.4% and 7.79%, respectively [13] - Agricultural product trade is anticipated to maintain a growth trend, with exports expected to rise by 2.29% [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - Short-term recovery in pig prices is expected, while the breeding capacity remains high [3] - The industry is undergoing a significant policy transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and encouraging innovation [6][17] - The high-quality development of the industry is essential, with cost-leading and farmer-inclusive companies likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [6][17] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine breeding sector saw a decline of 4.9%, primarily due to market sentiment and concerns over capacity reduction [5][16] - In 2025, the national pig output reached 71.973 million heads, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year, while the breeding sow inventory decreased by 2.9% [5][16] - As of January 18, 2026, pig prices rose to 13.25 CNY/kg, indicating a recovery in the industry [5][16] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," with the price of broiler chickens at 3.65 CNY/kg, down 3.18% week-on-week [7][18] - The impact of avian influenza in France may lead to reduced imports of breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices for parent stock [7][18] - The industry is expected to see a continued advantage for leading companies due to integrated operations and contract farming [7][18] 3. Feed Industry - The prices of various aquatic products have shown recovery, with significant year-on-year increases for certain species [19][20] - Hai Da Group is recommended for its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio [20] 4. Pet Industry - The competitive landscape in the pet food sector is becoming more concentrated, with leading brands outperforming mid-tier brands [10][21] - Despite concerns over Q4 2025 performance, the growth outlook for the pet industry remains strong, with domestic sales expected to continue growing [10][21] - Recommended companies include Zhongchong Co., which is positioned for growth in both domestic and international markets [11][21] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices fell by 2.1%, while corn prices increased by 0.8% due to declining inventories [26] - The egg market is showing strength, with prices rising by 1.4% [26] - The agricultural sector is viewed as having significant investment value due to its historical low valuations and the need to protect farmers' incomes [26]