宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 内需趋稳，助力核心通胀平稳收官 2025 年 12 月通胀点评 研究结论 | 委内瑞拉事件对美国"例外溢价"或短多 | 2026-01-06 | | --- | --- | | 长空：——海外札记 20260105 | | | 美军突袭委内瑞拉：被定价的地缘冲击， | 2026-01-06 | | 未被定价的秩序暗涌：——极简政经史 | | | （2026 年第 1 期） | | | 美委地缘扰动不改中国出海大势：——美 | 2026-01-05 | | 国突袭委内瑞拉影响快评 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 11 月 CPI 与核心 CPI 同比分别为 0.8%、1.2%（前值 0.7%、1.2%，后同），整体 上稳中有升。CPI 同比再次回升，其中有食品项的季节性因素，但更值得关注的是 内需的基本面下行风险进一步得到缓解。 ⚫ 此前恶劣气候对蔬果价格的影响并未完全消失，后续随着供给冲击减弱，食品 CPI 同比或再次转负，但猪价有望逐渐回暖，对 CPI 的拖累程度 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 1 月 9 日 PPI 超预期回升 —2025 年 12 月通胀数据点评 频率：每月 点评报告 相关报告 1、《预计 2025 年 5%收官—— 宏观经济预测报告（2025 年 12 月）》2026-01-06 2、《从"安全资产"到"地缘 安全资产"———宏观与大类 资产周报》2026-01-05 3、《大幅高于季节性——— 2025 年 12 月 PMI 点评》2025- 12-31 宏观点评报告 图 1：CPI 同比和环比变化趋势（%） | 同比（%） | 较前值 | 2025-12 | 2025-11 | 2025-10 | 2025-09 | 2025-08 | 2025-07 | 2025-06 | 2025-05 | 2025-04 | 2025-03 | 2025-02 | 2025-01 | 2024-12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CPI | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0 ...

中央农村工作会议指出，要统筹建立常态化防止返贫致贫机制，健全常态化帮扶政策体系，接续支持欠 发达地区发展，持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果。 "十五五"时期是巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接过渡期后的第一个五年。2026年是开展常态 化帮扶的第一年。本期记者采访5位一线干部群众，请他们谈谈常态化帮扶新阶段的新打算、新谋划， 以及如何持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，继续守牢不发生规模性返贫致贫底线。 ——编者 陕西省吴堡县农业农村局副局长白尧尧 "继续织牢织密'防贫网'" 本报记者邓剑洋 "幸亏党的政策好，我们一家才重拾信心、渡过难关，日子越过越好。"谈起近年的生活，陕西省吴堡县 宋家川街道慕家崖村村民慕生平充满感激。 2024年，慕生平的糖尿病综合征病情加重，失去劳动能力，全家仅靠妻子一人独撑，生活陷入困境。慕 家崖村"两委"与驻村工作队第一时间发现了这一情况。经过核查，慕生平家被认定为监测对象。低保办 理、医疗救助、残疾人扶持等一系列帮扶程序迅速启动，把慕生平一家从返贫边缘拉了回来。 2026年是开展常态化帮扶的第一年，如何继续让慕生平这样的家庭不返贫致贫？如何守牢不发生规模性 返贫致贫底线？ "要继续织牢织密'防 ...

每经AI快讯，益生股份（SZ 002458，收盘价：8.42元）12月29日晚间发布公告称，公司第六届第三十 三次董事会会议于2025年12月28日在公司会议室以现场与通讯相结合方式召开。会议审议了《关于公司 第七届董事会独立董事津贴的议案》等文件。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——绕开光刻机"卡脖子"，中国新型芯片问世！专访北大孙仲：支撑AI训练和 具身智能，可在28纳米及以上成熟工艺量产 （记者 曾健辉） 2025年1至6月份，益生股份的营业收入构成为：鸡收入占比76.18%，猪收入占比15.47%，农牧设备收 入占比5.48%，牛奶收入占比1.72%，其他行业占比1.14%。 截至发稿，益生股份市值为93亿元。 ...

立足期货及衍生品专业优势，根据会宁县当地牛养殖等农业产业特色，充分发挥自身的专业优势，风险 管理子公司申万智富今年开展猪、牛、羊饲料(玉米+豆粕)"保险+期货"项目。通过"保险+期货"的实 施，让当地农户面对市场波动时，有了更强的抗风险能力，稳定了农户的收入，助力当地政府巩固脱贫 攻坚成果，发展地方特色农业产业。 甘肃会宁县是申银万国期货公司重点结对帮扶地区。公司积极响应党中央推进乡村振兴号召，充分履行 国有金融企业政治责任和社会责任，发挥期货及衍生品市场服务实体经济、服务三农作用，以点带面、 多措并举，建立了"产业帮扶+驻村帮扶+教育帮扶+公益帮扶+消费帮扶"的五位一体帮扶模式，助力会 宁县发展。 2025年8月，公司办公室/党群工作部党支部和会宁县太平店镇12个村1个社区共计13个基层党支部签订 了党组织结对共建协议。同时，公司选派一名同志赴会宁县太平店镇大山川村开展驻村帮扶，深入田间 地头、走进农户家中，切实了解当地生产生活需求，找准帮扶工作发力点。公司在当地投入10.4万元,用 于产业振兴购买化肥、种子、地膜和农用机具项目的落实，帮助当地老百姓增产创收。公司积极开展捐 资助学、爱心公益，捐赠会宁县太平 ...

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 15 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 联系人 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 猪价或持续弱势，产能去化进行时 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20251208-20251212） 证券分析师 投资要点： 生猪：猪价持续弱势，去化逻辑或逐步加强 本周 SW 生猪养殖板块涨 1.11%，猪价表现先弱后强，生猪期货低位反弹（收涨 +2.17%）。降温叠加腌腊需求，本周猪价先弱后强收至 11.27 元/kg，周日涨至 11.54 元/kg（涌益）、全行业亏损，但第三方机构显示去化偏缓（涌益 11 月 yoy-0.14%）， 资本市场担忧产能去化进度、股价短期震荡。当前出栏均重上涨至约 130kg，12 月 出栏计划环比继续增长（涌益样本增幅 ...

Investment Chain - Prices of tin, silver, and gold have risen since November 2025. [1] - Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to -1.70% as of October 2025, with real estate development investment down by -14.70%. [1] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate is at 2.7%, while infrastructure investment growth rate is at 1.51%. [1] - Prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel have decreased, while power coal prices slightly increased to 698 RMB/ton. [1] Consumption Chain - Consumer confidence index rose to 89.60 in September 2025. [2] - Nominal growth rate for October 2025 fell to 2.90%, with cumulative nominal growth rate down by 4.30%. [2] - Sales area of commercial housing saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of -7.63% in October 2025. [2] - Automobile sales growth rate decreased to 8.82% in October 2025, and home appliance retail sales fell by -10.25%. [2] Export Chain - Export growth rate to the US increased in October 2025, while exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN saw a decline. [3] - Cumulative export growth rates for products like agricultural goods, toys, furniture, and steel have decreased. [3] - The overall export growth rate fell to 20.21% in October 2025, with textile exports down by -9.10%. [3] Price Chain - Pork prices increased to 12.24 RMB/kg as of November 19, 2025, while oil prices decreased to 57.95 USD/barrel. [4] - Prices for cotton and white sugar have declined, while MDI prices showed mixed trends. [4] - New credit increased to 220 billion RMB in October 2025, with life insurance premium income growth rate down to 12.68%. [4]

Investment Chain - Since November, prices of tin, silver, and gold have increased. In October 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment decreased to -1.70%, with real estate development investment declining by 14.70%. Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate fell to 2.7%, and infrastructure investment growth rate decreased to 1.51% [7][8] - In November 2025, prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel have decreased, while the price of thermal coal slightly increased to 698 RMB/ton. The average price of ordinary cement has risen, and steel prices have decreased [7][8] Consumer Chain - The consumer confidence index rose to 89.60 in September 2025. In October 2025, the nominal year-on-year growth rate fell to 2.90%, with a cumulative nominal year-on-year growth rate decline of 4.30%. The sales area of commercial housing in October saw a year-on-year growth rate drop to -7.63% [8][9] - In October 2025, automobile sales decreased by 8.82% year-on-year, and home appliance retail sales fell by 10.25% year-on-year. In December 2024, tourism revenue in Beijing increased by 11.40% year-on-year, while in March 2024, tourism revenue in Hainan decreased by 20.03% [8][9] Export Chain - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of exports to the United States increased, while exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN saw a decline. Cumulative year-on-year growth rates for refined oil, coke, and shipbuilding increased, while exports of agricultural products, toys, furniture, lighting, coal, steel, plastics, auto parts, and aluminum decreased [9][10] - The export amount year-on-year growth rate fell to 20.21% in October 2025, with textile exports decreasing by 9.10% and machinery exports declining by 1.10% [9][10] Price Chain - In November, pork prices decreased, and oil prices also saw a decline. As of November 25, 2025, WTI crude oil price fell to 57.95 USD/barrel. The price of PVC dropped to 4400 RMB/ton, while the price of pure MDI rose to 19350 RMB/ton and the price of polymer MDI decreased to 14550 RMB/ton [10][11]

Group 1 - The overall trend for grain prices, pig prices, and cattle and sheep prices is expected to experience downward fluctuations, particularly in December due to selling pressure [1][2] - Corn prices are currently facing a downward trend, especially in Northeast China, where several deep processing enterprises have initiated price reductions [1][2] - Wheat prices have reached a peak of approximately 2800 yuan per ton, and further increases may lead to farmers selling their grain and traders offloading stock [2] Group 2 - The pig and cattle prices are not expected to face significant downward risks in December, but there may be increased selling from pig farming enterprises if the market conditions allow [2] - The emergence of La Niña climate conditions in 2025 poses significant weather risks, which could lead to grain spoilage, necessitating proper storage practices among farmers [3] - Farmers are advised to be vigilant about temperature fluctuations that could trigger livestock diseases, emphasizing the importance of vaccination for livestock [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the company, Wens Foodstuff Group, has clarified its international business expansion direction and established an exploration team to facilitate this process [1] - The company will prioritize the overseas expansion of its broiler chicken business, leveraging its experience and channels in animal health, agricultural equipment, and environmental protection [1] - Following the successful expansion of the chicken business, the company plans to gradually extend its operations to the pork and duck industries in international markets, aiming to steadily explore global growth opportunities [1]