Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of live pigs still exists, and the spot price is likely to face difficulties in continuing to strengthen. The futures market is also affected by the weakening of the spot price and is expected to show a certain degree of decline. The price will be in a state where both upward and downward movements are restricted [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Spot Information - Today's live pig spot prices generally declined. After the previous continuous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for selling pigs has recovered, but the overall price decline is limited. The short - term supply situation has improved, and the price increase momentum is restricted. The secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the subsequent supply pressure is still expected to exist [2]. - The prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged at 439 and 1621 respectively. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 133.87, an increase of 14.15 compared to the previous day, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 31.60, an increase of 57.86 compared to the previous day [2]. - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 2020 to 132,507 heads. The price difference between different sizes of pigs also changed, with the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs decreasing by 0.03 to 0.07 [2]. Futures Information - Today's live pig futures showed a fluctuating downward trend. After the previous rapid increase, the market's enthusiasm for further bullish sentiment has decreased, and the futures market has entered a high - level volatile state. The inter - month spread of the futures is expected to remain volatile due to the lack of obvious driving factors in the short term [2][4]. - Among the futures contracts, LH01 was 13,725, an increase of 20; LH03 was 12,990, an increase of 10; LH05 was 13,160, a decrease of 15; LH07 was 14,000, an increase of 50; LH09 was 14,285, a decrease of 60; LH11 was 13,605, a decrease of 40 [2]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading is expected to be mainly in a high - level volatile state - For arbitrage, conduct a long - short spread trade on the LH9 - 1 contract - For options, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is tight in the short - term, leading to a strong price fluctuation. The main contract of live pig futures rose 2.14% this week. However, in the medium - term, there is still supply pressure as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. The demand is weak during the off - season, and the key factors affecting the short - term market are the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end and the entry of second - fattening. If the slaughter rhythm recovers later, the price increase will slow down and adjust, and the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure will limit the upside space of prices. The recommended strategy is range trading [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs continued to rise, with the main contract rising 2.14% this week [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply is tight due to the scale farms' price - holding and reduced slaughter at the beginning of the month, and the farmers' reluctance to sell. The average slaughter weight has decreased. As the price difference between fat and standard pigs narrows and the price of live pigs rises, the slaughter rhythm is expected to recover. In the medium - term, there is supply pressure as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. The demand is weak during the off - season, with high temperatures suppressing people's willingness to buy pork, slow terminal sales, and a decline in the slaughterhouse's operating rate, although it is higher than last year [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Range trading [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures rebounded this week, with the main contract rising 2.14% [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 4, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live pig futures increased by 1168 lots to 10564 lots compared with last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 450, a decrease of 300 compared with last week [16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the July contract of live pigs was 1350 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the September contract was 895 yuan/ton [20]. - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average price of live pigs in the national market this week was 14.55 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg compared with last week and 2.03% compared with last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, the same as last week and a decrease of 10.78% compared with last month [27]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of June 26, the national market price of pork was 25.20 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of June 11, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.12, a decrease of 0.17 compared with the previous week, and it was lower than the break - even point [35]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows increased. The inventory of breeding sows at the end of May was 40420000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 40000 heads (0.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms in May increased slightly by 0.33% month - on - month and 4.26% year - on - year, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms increased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [40]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In the first quarter, the inventory of live pigs increased year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, in May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.45% month - on - month and 5.75% year - on - year, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms increased by 0.82% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [43]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms decreased by 2.38% month - on - month and increased by 12.35% year - on - year, and the slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms decreased by 1.48% month - on - month and increased by 73.46% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of externally -三元 live pigs this week was 123.52 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg compared with last week [47]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit and Other Aspects - **Breeding Profit**: As of July 4, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 26.26 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 105.45 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 119.72 yuan/head, an increase of 69.48 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of poultry breeding was a loss of 0.58 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 0.17 yuan/head compared with last week [52]. - **Pork Import**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of pork was 450000 tons, with an average monthly import of 90000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.65%, at a historically low level [53][57]. - **Substitute and Feed**: As of July 4, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of the week of June 26, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.06 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of July 4, the spot price of soybean meal was 2916.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.43 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of July 3, the price of corn was 2436.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.88 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of July 4, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index decreased by 0.77% compared with last week. This week, the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of May 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2762100 tons, an increase of 98100 tons compared with the previous month [61][66][69][74]. - **CPI**: As of May 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, the same as last month [77]. 3.3.3. Downstream - **Slaughter and Demand**: In the 27th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 26.50%, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points compared with last week and 10.32 percentage points higher than last year. As of this Thursday, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 14.46%, a decrease of 2.95% compared with last week. As of May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, an increase of 4.52% compared with last month. In May 2025, the national catering revenue was 457.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [80][85]. 3.4. Live Pig Stocks - The report mentioned the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data was provided [86].

Market Focus - As of the week ending June 27, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 50.25 CNY per head, up from 19.40 CNY per head the previous week. In contrast, the profit from purchasing piglets was a loss of 131.71 CNY per head, improved from a loss of 186.79 CNY per head the prior week [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the delivery quality standards for live pig futures, modifying the average and individual weight ranges for delivery standards. The average weight range has been changed from [100, 120] kg to [110, 130] kg, and the individual weight range from [90, 140] kg to [90, 150] kg. Additionally, the pricing adjustments for alternative delivery items have been specified [1] Daily Market Data - The national average price for live pigs as of July 1, 2025, varies by province, with prices ranging from 13.86 CNY/kg in Xinjiang to 16.73 CNY/kg in Guangdong. The prices reflect a slight increase compared to the previous day, with most regions showing a stable outlook for the near future [4] Industry Review - Currently, pricing power in the pig market is concentrated among leading enterprises. The recent increase in pig prices is attributed to major producers actively reducing supply, along with speculative capital providing some support. Despite awareness of oversupply, the industry sentiment has shifted, leading to increased willingness to hold back supply to maintain prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in live pig futures prices is attributed to a tightening supply and positive market sentiment for the upcoming peak season in August and September, with prices rebounding over 5% from previous lows [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is experiencing a tightening supply due to factors such as reduced large pig availability and increased frozen product inventory, which supports pig prices [1]. - Analysts note that the sentiment among small-scale farmers is to hold onto pigs in anticipation of higher prices in late July to August, leading to a decrease in supply [1][2]. - The overall pig supply is expected to increase gradually throughout the year, but short-term supply may be limited due to factors like piglet diarrhea outbreaks [4][5]. Price Trends - The average price of piglets has dropped to 36.91 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.8% week-on-week and 16.7% year-on-year, indicating a cautious market [2]. - The price of 15 kg piglets has fallen from 670 yuan per head in mid-April to 530 yuan currently, primarily due to high costs and low seasonal demand [3]. Profitability and Cost Factors - Current breeding profits are generally positive, although there is a structural divide where some farmers face losses due to high costs of purchased piglets [2][4]. - Rising costs of feed ingredients like corn and soybean meal may impact cash flow for farmers in the latter half of the year [2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a significant increase in piglet supply in September and October, which may exert downward pressure on prices [4]. - The current price increase is seen as temporary, with expectations that the market will transition from inventory accumulation to depletion, potentially leading to price declines in the fourth quarter [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week after the May Day holiday, and the market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand. The pig price is expected to be in a short - term volatile and weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group's slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [8]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation also shows some bullish factors, but the price on the disk is below the 20 - day moving average and moving down, and the main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. The expected price range of the LH2509 contract is around 13,400 - 13,800 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - After the May Day holiday, the enthusiasm for domestic pig slaughter decreased, and the pig price may return to a weak state after a slight pre - holiday rebound. The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation, and the overall consumer enthusiasm has declined after the holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. However, the additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence [8]. 3.2 Recent News - The additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market entered the off - season, with a decrease in the slaughter of large pigs. The supply and demand of pigs have both decreased, and the spot price is in a short - term volatile and weak pattern, with the futures following the same trend [10]. - The demand for pork has weakened in the short term after the May Day holiday. The spot price of pigs is volatile and weak due to the double - reduction in supply and demand, but the decline space may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [10]. - The domestic pig farming profit remains at a low level, with short - term profits still available. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is still good in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The spot price of pigs may be volatile and weak after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a volatile and weak pattern in the short term. When it stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and the recovery in demand [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited further decline space of domestic pig spot prices [11]. - Bearish factors: The pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season after May Day [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - The report also provides data on pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from May 22 to May 30, including prices of different contracts and spot prices in different regions [12]. 3.5 Position Data The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [8].

华 金 期 货 生 猪 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/19 | | | 5/9 | 5/16 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪期货 | LH2507 | 13495 | 13405 | -90 | -0.7% | | | | LH2509 | 13925 | 13660 | -265 | -1.9% | 主力合约 | | | LH2511 | 13625 | 13420 | -205 | -1.5% | | | 现货价格 | 全国 | 14.74 | 14.56 | -0.18 | -1.2% | | | | 河南 | 15.07 | 14.9 | -0.17 | -1.1% | 交割基准区域 | 数据来源&制图：文华财经、钢联、华金期货 | | | | 生猪周度汇总 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货数据 | | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | 生猪 | LH2507 | 13405 | -90 | -0.7% | | ...

Report Information - Report Name: Huajin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs [1] - Report Date: April 28, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - In the short - term, the live pig market is relatively stable with a slight increase in demand, and the pig price will mainly show a consolidation trend. As the May Day holiday starts on Thursday this week, short - term operations are recommended [3] Section Summaries 1. Live Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: LH2507 closed at 13,540, down 120 (-0.9%); LH2509 (the main contract) closed at 14,150, down 315 (-2.2%); LH2511 closed at 13,795, down 215 (-1.5%) [3][4] - Spot: The national average commodity pig出栏 price was 14.87 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg (-0.2%); in Henan (the delivery benchmark area), it was 15.07 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg (-0.4%) [3][4] 2. Inter - month Spreads, Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Spreads: The 2509 - 2507 spread was 610, down 195; the 2511 - 2509 spread was - 355, up 100 [9] - Basis: The basis for July was 1530, up 60; for September, it was 920, up 255 [9] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 665, an increase of 440 [3][9] 3. Inventory and Inventory Structure - Piglets: The average price of weaned piglets was 523.81 yuan/head, down 0.95 yuan/head from last week. The market had stable rigid demand, and the price was supported [18] - Sows: The average market price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, unchanged from last week. The domestic inventory of reproductive sows was expected to be stable with minor fluctuations [18] - Commodity Pigs: The inventory of commodity pigs in April was expected to continue to increase month - on - month due to capacity recovery [18] 4. Standard - Fat Pig Price Spread - National Average: The weekly average national standard - fat pig price spread was 0.01 yuan/kg. Secondary fattening groups continued to enter the market, but the demand for fat pigs weakened as the weather warmed up [24] - Key Markets: In key markets, the standard - fat pig price spread increased in most regions, such as 0.21 in Liaoning and 0.24 in Hebei [23] 5. Slaughter End - Slaughter Rate: The national average slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 27.19%, up 0.35 percentage points. Due to secondary fattening diverting some standard pig resources, slaughter enterprises increased prices to ensure the slaughter volume [27] - Fresh Sales Rate: The fresh sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 88.1%, down 0.05 percentage points [27] - Cold Storage Rate: The cold storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.45%, up 0.04 percentage points. Some regions had low fresh product sales and were forced to store in cold storage [27] 6. White - Striped Pork and Wholesale Markets - White - Striped Pork Price: The price of the top three grades of white - striped pork fluctuated [29] - Gross - White Price Spread: The gross - white price spread was 4.12 yuan/kg, down [3] 7. Profit and Cost - Self - Breeding and Self - Raising: The weekly average profit was 145.34 yuan/head, down 0.95 yuan/head from last week [35] - Purchasing Piglets: The weekly average profit was 58.80 yuan/head, down 1.39 yuan/head from last week. The increase in feed raw material prices squeezed the profit margins [35] 8. Market Information Summary - Supply: Large - scale farms had normal slaughter volumes, high slaughter weights, and concentrated slaughter by small - scale farmers, resulting in sufficient market supply [38] - Demand: Secondary fattening continued to enter the market, and the May Day holiday备货 supported short - term demand [38] - Cold Storage: Slaughter enterprises had low cold storage capacity, and the cold storage rate was expected to increase later [38] - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025. The increase in import tariffs on US goods was short - term positive for pig prices [38] - Epidemic: There were sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions, and the southwest was about to enter the traditional epidemic - prone season [38] - Market Sentiment: The market sentiment was relatively neutral due to the fluctuating pig prices [38]