每经AI快讯，11月14日，甲醇期货主力连续合约跌2.02%，报2039元(人民币)/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The high inventory pressure on methanol is increasing, and its downward trend is accelerating. The coal price has rebounded continuously during the coal demand peak season, with the domestic supply remaining ample. The international methanol plant operating rate has increased, and imports have recovered. The downstream demand is stable, but the port inventory continues to accumulate. In the context of high inventory, methanol is expected to continue its downward trend [4]. - Trading strategies include holding short positions for unilateral trading, adopting a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options in the over - the - counter market [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Raw material coal**: As of November 14, the coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin regions are 71% and 44% respectively. The coal mines have resumed production, and the daily coal output in these two regions is around 4 million tons. The demand is strong, and the pit - mouth price has been rising continuously [4]. - **Supply side**: The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 320 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains high and stable, with the domestic supply being continuously abundant [4]. - **Import side**: The US dollar price is dropping rapidly, and the import premium has widened. All Iranian plants are operating normally, the non - Iranian operating rate has slightly increased, and the overseas operating rate has returned to a high level. The European and American markets have rebounded slightly, the price difference between China and Europe has narrowed, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 540,000 tons in November, and the concessionary tender transactions are still poor, with a large amount of non - Iranian supplies [4]. - **Demand side**: The operating rate of MTO plants has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while some are operating at partial loads. The overall downstream demand is stable [4]. - **Inventory side**: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is relatively strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated within a narrow range. However, with the increase in imports and a slight decline in MTO operating rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of November 13, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load is 76.54%, a 0.45 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.83 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load is 68.74%, a 0.61 - percentage - point increase from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From November 1 to November 7, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol output is 1,050,609 tons, an increase of 19,750 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate is 72.02%, a 1.35% increase [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of November 12, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 451,800 tons [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of November 13, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 83.65%, a 0.68 - percentage - point increase from last week. The national olefin plant operating rate is 90.24%, and the olefin industry operating rate continues to decline [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and formaldehyde are 5.33% (a 1.11% month - on - month decrease), 67.13%, and 41.42% respectively. The overall capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde has decreased compared to last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 88,800 tons, a 271.55% increase from the previous statistical date [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises is 369,300 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 245,400 tons, a 10.99% increase from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of November 12, 2025, the total port inventory is 1,543,600 tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi is 322 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has remained stable [5]. - **Spot prices**: The price in Taicang is 2040 yuan/ton (- 60), and in the northern line is 1980 yuan/ton (- 10) [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that the domestic methanol market will continue to operate weakly in the short - term. Inland, multiple olefin plants plan to undergo maintenance in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operation, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With high domestic methanol operation levels and low inventory at upstream methanol plants, they are mainly focused on shipping. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short - term. However, considering the current low methanol prices, cautious short - selling by traders supports the bottom price, and the expected decline is limited. In the port area, under the suppression of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventory, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. The report predicts that the methanol price will fluctuate weakly this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2075 - 2130 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Methanol 2601**: - **Fundamentals**: With the expectation of weakening fundamentals, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak operation in the short - term. Port methanol is also expected to decline weakly. Although the price is low, the bottom is supported, and the decline is expected to be limited. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 3 for the 01 contract, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 127.90 million tons, an increase of 1.29 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.97 million tons to 76.59 million tons. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. - **Expectation**: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate weakly this week, with MA2601 trading between 2075 - 2130 [4]. 2. Long - Short Focus - **Positive Factors**: Some plants have stopped production, Iranian methanol operation has decreased, port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Some previously stopped plants have resumed production, there is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operation has declined significantly, coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping, and some plants in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor shipping [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price**: The prices of various methanol products in the spot and futures markets, as well as their price changes and spreads, are presented. For example, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2072 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price is 2103 yuan/ton. - **Operation Rate**: The weighted average national operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operation rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed to varying degrees. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports increased by 1.53 million tons to 80.33 million tons, while the inventory in South China ports decreased by 2.24 million tons to 47.57 million tons. - **Production Profit**: The production profits of different methanol production processes (coal - based, natural gas - based, and coke oven gas - based) have different trends. For example, the profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 5 yuan/ton, the profit of natural gas - based methanol remained unchanged, and the profit of coke oven gas - based methanol increased by 323 yuan/ton. - **Downstream Product Data**: The prices, production profits, and operation rates of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO have also been analyzed. For example, the production profit of formaldehyde decreased by 9 yuan/ton, and the operation rate increased by 0.01% [8][21][19]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Multiple domestic methanol plants are in various maintenance states, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and temporary shutdowns due to failures or limited gas supply. For example, Shaanxi Heimaotou's 100,000 - ton/year coke oven gas - based methanol plant has been shut down for maintenance since the beginning of November 2024, and the end date is to be determined [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants are also in different operation states, including normal operation, resumption after maintenance, and planned shutdowns. For example, QAFAC in Qatar was under maintenance from the end of February to March 16 [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are undergoing maintenance or have production plans. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's 700,000 - ton/year olefin plant and its 1.8 - million - ton/year methanol plant stopped for maintenance on March 15, with an expected duration of 45 days [58].

甲醇产业日报 2025-11-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2103 | -5 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -105 | -2 -3501 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 1382831 | -24489 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -254452 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 11709 | 890 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2070 | 5 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1992.5 | 0 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 72.5 | 15 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -33 | 10 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 242 | 2 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 322 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 266 | -2 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | - ...

| | | 甲醇日评20251112: 低估值,弱驱动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 单位 2025/11/11 2025/11/10 | | | | 变化值 | | | | | | | (絶対值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 元/吨 | 2082.00 | 2101.00 | -19.00 | -0.90% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 元/吨 | 2194.00 | 2208.00 | -14.00 | -0.63% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 | 2218.00 | 2224.00 | -6.00 | -0.27% | | | | 元/吨 太仓 | 2057.50 | 2060.00 | -2.50 | -0.12% | | | | 山东 元/吨 | 2187.50 | 2180.00 | 7.50 | 0.34% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 元/吨 | 2075.00 | 2065.00 | 10.00 | 0.48% | | 及基差 | 甲醇规货价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Methanol downstream shows a situation of not prosperous in the peak - season. This week, the port inventories increased slightly and remained above 1.5 million tons, and the production area also saw inventory accumulation. The import volume in September decreased by 18.9% month - on - month, and it is expected to be around 1.5 million tons in October. It is expected that 3 MTO plants will be shut down for maintenance from November to December. Affected by news, the futures price is consolidating at a low level, and the methanol in the real - world market is still under pressure, with a reference range of 2,080 - 2,170 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to partially take profit on previous short positions and hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract dropped 16 yuan to 2,103 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the eastern mainstream area rose 10 yuan to 2,090 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 22,183 lots to 801,100 lots, and short positions increased by 22,508 lots to 1,043,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Supply - The domestic methanol operating rate is 87.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 72%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [1] 3.2.2 Inventory - The total inventory of methanol ports in China is 1.5216 million tons, an increase of 15,100 tons. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 28,700 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 13,600 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.75% [1] 3.2.3 Demand - The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 51,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,700 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.57%. The olefin operating rate is 90.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 63.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.1%; the acetic acid operating rate is 69.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 41.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% [1] 3.2.4 Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, which is the second consecutive meeting to cut interest rates, meeting market expectations and the fifth interest rate cut since September 2024 [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Methanol downstream is not prosperous in the peak - season. This week, port inventories increased slightly and remained above 1.5 million tons, and the production area also saw inventory accumulation. The import volume in September decreased by 18.9% month - on - month, and it is expected to be around 1.5 million tons in October. It is expected that 3 MTO plants will be shut down for maintenance from November to December. Affected by news, the futures price is consolidating at a low level, and the methanol in the real - world market is still under pressure, with a reference range of 2,080 - 2,170 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Partially take profit on previous short positions and hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1]

2025 年 11 月 10 日 甲醇：驱动向下，但下方空间逐步收窄 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 甲醇主力 （01合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,125 | 2,141 | -16 -162313 -4418 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,116 | 2,120 | - 4 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 1,243,391 | 1,405,704 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 1,368,330 | 1,372,748 | | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 10,854 | 11,159 | -305 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 2,631,3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Port inventory has further accumulated to a historical high. In November, the arrival pressure remains high. The delayed announcement of winter maintenance in Iran is the main driver of the recent decline in methanol prices. There are now expectations of Iranian plant maintenance, and the market's expectation of the delayed implementation of Iranian winter maintenance has regained optimism [2]. - Inland inventory has rebounded again. Mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. Coal - based methanol production has further increased in November, and inland inventory has been rebuilt from a low level. Inland MTO demand has declined, and attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Traditional downstream industries are also under pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, and the basis between methanol in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][11] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report shows figures on the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, among others [26][27][28] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - It includes figures on the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate, the inland factory sample inventory, and the operating rate of methanol production in China [33][34][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides figures on price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, and the price difference between Taicang and southern Shandong [38][44][46] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - It shows figures on the production gross profit of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [45][50][51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of November 6, the domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 90.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. The olefin industry's overall start - up continued to decline this week, and the MA2601 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2150 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest was 1368330 lots, a decrease of 4418 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 257497 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10854, a decrease of 305 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2065 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton; the East - Northwest price difference was 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton; the CFR price at the main Chinese port was 241 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 272 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 82 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price was 4.24 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.07 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.15 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 49.56 tons, a decrease of 1.36 tons; the methanol import profit was - 4.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 386400 tons, an increase of 10300 tons; the methanol enterprise start - up rate was 86.73%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start - up rate was 40.29%, an increase of 1.42 percentage points; the dimethyl ether start - up rate was 5.82%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points; the acetic acid start - up rate was 73.47%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points; the MTBE start - up rate was 67.98%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points; the olefin start - up rate was 90.27%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 704 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.84%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 16.9%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 19.63%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 19.65%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of November 5, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 38.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04 tons or 2.75%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 22.11 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 tons or 2.57%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 151.71 tons, an increase of 1.06 tons. The inventory at East China ports increased by 2.42 tons, while that at South China ports decreased by 1.36 tons. Recently, the production capacity loss due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts was less than the output from the restored production capacity, and the overall output increased [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The port inventory of methanol remains high, and the expected reduction in arrivals due to previous Iran sanctions has not materialized. The delay in Iran's winter maintenance announcement is the main driver of the methanol price decline. Recently, there are expectations of Iran's plant maintenance, and the market's expectation of the delayed implementation of Iran's winter maintenance has warmed up [3]. - The inventory in the inland region has rebounded again. The mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. The coal - based methanol production rate has further increased in November, and the inland inventory has started to build up from a low level. The demand for inland MTO has decreased, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Overall, the inland region is also in an inventory accumulation cycle, and the degree of support for the port remains to be observed [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are presented to show methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis vs. methanol main contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [7][21][23] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [25][26][34] 3. Methanol Production Rate, Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P production rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol production rate (including integrated ones) is presented through figures [35][37][38] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures display regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [40][50][53] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [51][57] Market News and Important Data Inland Region - Q5500 Ordos steam coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 560 yuan/ton (+13). Inner Mongolia north - line methanol is 1965 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of 424 yuan/ton (-14); Inner Mongolia south - line methanol is 1950 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi methanol is 2170 yuan/ton (+10), with a basis of 229 yuan/ton (-16); Henan methanol is 2020 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of 79 yuan/ton (-36); Hebei methanol is 2075 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of 194 yuan/ton (-36). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 386,410 tons (+10,350), and the northwest factory inventory is 232,500 tons (+1,200). Longzhong's inland factory pending orders are 221,093 tons (+5,535), and the northwest factory pending orders are 124,500 tons (+10,900) [1] Port Region - Taicang methanol is 2082 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 59 yuan/ton (-26); CFR China is 241 US dollars/ton (-3), and the East China import price difference is - 31 yuan/ton (+2). Changzhou methanol is 2275 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2107 yuan/ton (+2), with a basis of - 34 yuan/ton (-24). Longzhong's total port inventory is 1,517,100 tons (+10,630), Jiangsu port inventory is 821,500 tons (-2,800), Zhejiang port inventory is 200,000 tons (+27,000), and Guangdong port inventory is 297,000 tons (-7,000). The downstream MTO production rate is 90.19% (-0.24%) [2] Regional Price Differences - The Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is - 90 yuan/ton (-13), the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference is - 433 yuan/ton (-13), the Taicang - Lunan - 250 price difference is - 338 yuan/ton (-10); the Lunan - Taicang - 100 price difference is - 12 yuan/ton (+10); the Guangdong - East China - 180 price difference is - 155 yuan/ton (+2); the East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 price difference is - 283 yuan/ton (+25) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy - Inter - period: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - Inter - variety: No strategy [4]