1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The situation in Iran has become an important influencing factor for the methanol market. The movement of US warships to the Middle East and the reported progress of US preparations for action against Iran have led to a rebound in the methanol futures market, but the basis in ports has weakened. The winter shutdown of Iranian methanol plants and the subsequent reduction in arrivals to China are key factors affecting the port inventory and market trends [3]. - Inland, coal - based methanol production maintains high - pressure operation, and it is in the traditional seasonal inventory rebuilding period with the traditional downstream in the off - season [4]. - The recommended trading strategy is to cautiously go long on a hedging basis on a single - sided basis, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period or cross - variety trading [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts related to methanol basis (such as methanol basis in different regions including Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc. compared with the main futures contract) and inter - period spreads (such as spreads between different methanol futures contracts like 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][8][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and various import profit - related indicators such as the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [7][27][28] III. Methanol Start - up, Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated ones) is presented in the charts [7][35][42] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report shows regional price differences such as the price difference between North Shandong and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, etc. through multiple charts [7][39][49] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts display the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [7][51][55]

甲醇日报 | 2026-01-28 伊朗局势仍反复，关注装置动向 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤500元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润313元/吨（-18）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1788元/吨（-18），内蒙北线基差84元/吨（+26），内蒙南线1810元/吨（-10）；山东临沂2185元/吨（+10）， 鲁南基差81元/吨（+53）；河南1990元/吨（-25），河南基差-114元/吨（+18）；河北2025元/吨（+0），河北基差-19 元/吨（+43）。隆众内地工厂库存438420吨（-12530），西北工厂库存261400吨（-10110）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 238268吨（+1500），西北工厂待发订单150800吨（+17300）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2267元/吨（-33），太仓基差-37元/吨（+10），CFR中国272美元/吨（+5），华东进口价差-23元/ 吨（-1），常州甲醇2290元/吨；广东甲醇2265元/吨（-15），广东基差-39元/吨（+28）。隆众港口总库存1457451吨 （+22201），江苏港口库存712951吨（-52 ...

本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：下游MTO停工，伊朗局势反复 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 本周甲醇供给呈"国内稳、进口缩"格局。国内装置开工率77.91%，环比微降0.18%，煤制甲醇开工高位支撑产量，新疆100万吨级新产能投产补充供应，仅天然气制装置开工小幅下滑。 | | | | 进口端收缩明显，伊朗冬季限气致多套装置停车，本周港口到港28.49万吨，华东到港略减、华南增量。库存方面，港口总量145.75万吨小幅累库，华东去库与华南累库形成对冲，整体维 | | | | 持历史中高位置，供应整体充裕但进口缩减缓解库存压力。 | | 需求 | 利空 | 本周甲醇需求整体偏弱，结构性分化显著。主力下游MTO开工率回落，兴兴等装置检修，外采需求缩减。传统下游表现分化，醋酸、MTBE开工小幅回升，甲醛、二甲醚维持低位。内地 | | | | 采购情绪清淡，港口提货力度不一，总消费量环比微降。短期受装置检修拖累，需求缺乏上行驱动，后续需关注MTO重启进度。 | | 库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and crude oil prices are firm. Last week, methanol inventories at ports increased slightly, while those in production areas decreased. The domestic market continued the rhythm of price - cut inventory clearance, with buyers making low - price and just - in - time purchases. In the short term, the market will fluctuate strongly. The reference range for contract 05 is 2250 - 2360. It is recommended to hold long positions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 64 yuan to 2334 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region rose by 25 yuan to 2263 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 2783 lots to 451,600 lots, and short positions decreased by 20,969 lots to 559,600 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Supply - The domestic methanol operating rate is 89.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 60.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [2] 3.2.2 Inventory - The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4575 million tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from the previous period. In the East China region, inventory decreased by 13,600 tons; in the South China region, inventory increased by 35,800 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 438,300 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78% [2] 3.2.3 Demand - The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 46,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,800 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 238,300 tons, a slight increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The olefin operating rate is 85.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%; the acetic acid operating rate is 80.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 34.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% [2] 3.2.4 Import - In December 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.734 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the imports from Saudi Arabia were the largest, reaching 604,400 tons, with an average import price of 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [2] 3.2.5 Crude Oil - The US plans to strengthen sanctions on the oil sectors of some countries, increasing concerns about potential supply risks and driving up international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.71 US dollars/barrel to 61.07 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.88%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.82 US dollars/barrel to 65.88 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.84%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract fell 6.9 to 439.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 10.4 to 449.8 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and crude oil prices are firm. Last week, methanol inventories at ports increased slightly, while those in production areas decreased. The domestic market continued the rhythm of price - cut inventory clearance, with buyers making low - price and just - in - time purchases. In the short term, the market will fluctuate strongly. The reference range for contract 05 is 2250 - 2360 [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [2]

甲醇日报 | 2026-01-23 港口库存未进一步下降 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤510元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润290元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1785元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差125元/吨（-51），内蒙南线1820元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2185元/吨（+0），鲁 南基差125元/吨（-51）；河南2020元/吨（-10），河南基差-40元/吨（-61）；河北2025元/吨（+0），河北基差25元/吨 （-51）。隆众内地工厂库存438420吨（-12530），西北工厂库存261400吨（-10110）；隆众内地工厂待发订单238268 吨（+1500），西北工厂待发订单150800吨（+17300）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2238元/吨（+23），太仓基差-22元/吨（-28），CFR中国262美元/吨（+1），华东进口价差-25元/ 吨（+7），常州甲醇2280元/吨；广东甲醇2207元/吨（+7），广东基差-53元/吨（-44）。隆众港口总库存1457451吨 （+22201），江苏港口库存712951吨（-52838），浙江港口 ...

Supply and Demand Data - National operating rate is at 77.91% with a decrease of 0.18% [1] - Non-integrated operating rate stands at 70.6%, down by 0.25% [1] - International operating rate is at 57.09%, showing a decline of 2.84% [1] - MTO operating rate is at 80.75%, down by 4.67% [1] - Traditional downstream weighted operating rate is at 44.99%, decreasing by 0.08% [1] - MTBE operating rate has decreased [1] - Inland inventory has increased by 0.32wt, while port inventory has decreased by 100,000 tons [1] Market Insights - Methanol futures are experiencing low-level narrow fluctuations, with basis trading as the main focus [1] - Overall basis has slightly strengthened, and daily trading volume remains acceptable [1] - Inland supply remains high, while traditional demand is weak, indicating short-term pressure [1] - Expectations of spring maintenance and new capacity may alleviate long-term pressure [1] - Although port inventory has slightly decreased, MTO demand is weak due to multiple units undergoing maintenance or reducing output [1] - The reduction in inventory for May has significantly weakened, limiting the price rebound potential [1] Key Variables - The two critical variables affecting the market are: 1. The low production levels of Iranian methanol leading to a reduced pace of imported goods arriving at ports, with 310,000 tons shipped from Iran recently [1] 2. The gradual decline of risk premiums associated with previous geopolitical factors [1]

甲醇日报 | 2026-01-20 伊朗局势放缓后，甲醇价格连续回调 港口方面：太仓甲醇2207元/吨（-18），太仓基差-5元/吨（+9），CFR中国263美元/吨（-3），华东进口价差-24元/吨 （+12），常州甲醇2295元/吨；广东甲醇2210元/吨（-15），广东基差-2元/吨（+12）。隆众港口总库存1435250吨 （-101948），江苏港口库存765789吨（-65189），浙江港口库存273100吨（-19200），广东港口库存198000吨（-15000）； 下游MTO开工率85.77%（-2.29%）。 地区价差方面：鲁北-西北-280价差15元/吨（+15），太仓-内蒙-550价差-158元/吨（+2），太仓-鲁南-250价差-243元/ 吨（+2）；鲁南-太仓-100价差-107元/吨（-2）；广东-华东-180价差-177元/吨（+3）；华东-川渝-200价差-166元/吨（-1）。 市场分析 港口方面。伊朗局势放缓后，甲醇盘面价格连续回调，继续关注后续是否有反复。甲醇港口库存虽然首周下滑， 但下游MTO检修仍拖累港口价格表现；MTO处于停车检修中，宁波富德12月初检修至1月下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Coal prices are weakly stable, resulting in weak cost - side drivers. Domestic methanol operating rates and production remain high, while international methanol operating rates have dropped to a low level, reducing import pressure and supply pressure. Current demand from some traditional downstream sectors is weak, olefin profits are poor, the MTO maintenance plan in East China has been implemented, and the MTO industry load has decreased, putting pressure on demand. Port inventories remain high, the basis is weak, and futures prices are under pressure [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Supply and Demand Overview - **Inventory**: This week, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventories are expected to be 44.41 tons, showing a slight week - on - week decline. Forecasted foreign vessel arrivals are expected to increase week - on - week. Recent port spot sales are average, and import apparent demand may be weak. Overall, port methanol inventories are expected to rise next week [11]. - **Supply**: This week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0301 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of around 90.87%, a decrease from the current period. The estimated arrival plan for methanol import samples is 291,500 tons, including 226,000 tons of visible and 65,500 tons of non - visible imports, and domestic trade is estimated to be around 15,000 - 20,000 tons [11]. - **Demand**: This week, MTO plants are operating stably with no significant change plans, and the weekly average operating rate has decreased. In the traditional demand sector, the operating rates of glacial acetic acid, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether have increased, while the operating rate of chlorides has decreased [11]. - **Industrial chain profit**: Import profit remains in a loss, currently at - 36 yuan/ton. The profit from coal - to - methanol production in Inner Mongolia remains stable in the loss, currently at - 238 yuan/ton. Downstream profits are in a large loss, and the profit from MTO in East China remains in a loss, currently at - 1,094 yuan/ton [11]. - **Coal price**: On the supply side, it is constrained by the reduction of production quotas in Indonesia, the delay in RKAB approval, and logistics issues. On the demand side, it continues to be weak due to the price - cutting by domestic power plants, high inventory levels, and conservative procurement in non - power industries. Coal prices are weakly stable [11] [12]. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoint**: Coal prices are weakly stable, cost - side drivers are weak; domestic methanol operating rates and production remain high, international methanol operating rates have dropped to a low level, import pressure has decreased, and supply pressure has reduced; current demand from some traditional downstream sectors is weak, olefin profits are poor, the MTO maintenance plan in East China has been implemented, and the MTO industry load has decreased, putting pressure on demand. Port inventories remain high, the basis is weak, and futures prices are under pressure [12]. - **Unilateral and options**: Operate bearishly within the range, with a reference range of [2,150, 2,350] [12]. MA Unilateral Strategy (Medium - term) - **Strategy**: Short the MA605 contract [15]. - **Price and trend**: It is in a rebound trend. As of January 15, the price of MA605 is 2,273 [15]. - **Logic**: Port inventories are at a relatively high level, downstream profits are poor, and demand is under pressure [15]. - **Operation suggestion**: Operate bearishly when the price rises [15]. PP - 3MA Strategy - **Strategy**: Short the PP - 3MA spread [16]. - **Price and trend**: It is in a volatile trend. As of January 15, for the May contract, the current spread of PP - 3MA is - 227 [16]. - **Logic**: In 2026, PP will still be in the peak production period, and the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol; new downstream production capacity of methanol is being put into operation on a large scale, and methanol demand is resilient [16]. - **Operation suggestion**: Wait and see for now or short when the price rises [16]. Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot price**: As of January 15, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,240 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis**: As of January 15, the basis relative to the May contract is currently - 33 yuan/ton [21]. Supply - side - **Capacity utilization and production**: Last week (January 9 - 15, 2026), China's methanol production was 2,035,375 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,990 tons; the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34% [82]. - **International operating rate and imports**: As of January 14, 2026, China's methanol sample arrivals during the period (January 8 - 14, 2026) were 240,400 tons; among them, foreign vessels accounted for 221,100 tons (96,100 tons of visible and 125,000 tons of non - visible, including 41,100 tons of visible in Jiangsu); domestic trade vessels supplemented 19,300 tons, including 2,000 tons in Jiangsu, 10,300 tons in Guangdong, and 7,000 tons in Xiamen [90]. - **New production capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.43 million tons, with a production capacity increase of about 7.3%, and most of the plants are equipped with downstream facilities such as MTO, acetic acid, and BDO [93]. - **New production capacity in 2026**: In 2026, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.87 million tons, with a production capacity increase of about 7.3% [94]. Demand - side - **Apparent consumption of methanol**: From January to November, the apparent consumption of methanol was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.75% [100]. - **Methanol - to - olefin operating rate and production**: The MTO operating rate is 89.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%. The MTO plant of Zhejiang Xingxing has stopped production, and some enterprises are still operating at reduced loads, and the industry operating rate continues to decline passively [104]. - **Traditional downstream operating rate**: The traditional downstream operating rate is low [109]. - **Downstream procurement volume**: As of January 14, 2026, the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.13% [122]. - **New downstream production capacity**: The new downstream production capacity is high, corresponding to a methanol consumption of 10.52 million tons, and methanol demand remains resilient [125]. Inventory - **Enterprise inventory**: As of January 14, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.71% [131]. - **Port inventory**: As of January 14, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol port samples is 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 6.63%. The significant reduction in port methanol inventory is mainly due to the small total unloading volume. During the period, the visible foreign vessel unloading was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was counted as 125,000 tons [134].

伊朗局势有所放缓，但港口开始去库 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤510元/吨（-10），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润340元/吨（+18）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线1835元/吨（-3），内蒙北线基差162元/吨（+13），内蒙南线1865元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2210元/吨（+7）， 鲁南基差137元/吨（+22）；河南2055元/吨（+0），河南基差-18元/吨（+15）；河北2055元/吨（+0），河北基差42元/ 吨（+15）。隆众内地工厂库存450950吨（+3270），西北工厂库存271510吨（+1010）；隆众内地工厂待发订单224768 吨（-12703），西北工厂待发订单133500吨（-16500）。 甲醇日报 | 2026-01-16 港口方面：太仓甲醇2240元/吨（-17），太仓基差-33元/吨（-2），CFR中国268美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-37元/ 吨（-1），常州甲醇2310元/吨；广东甲醇2240元/吨（-5），广东基差-33元/吨（+10）。隆众港口总库存1435250吨 （-101948），江苏港口库存765789吨（-65189 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in methanol port inventory has begun to materialize, and attention should be paid to the duration of winter maintenance of Iranian methanol plants. The MTO is under maintenance, and attention should be paid to the actual resumption time and the possibility of future maintenance. Coal - based methanol maintains high - level operation, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of southwest gas - based methanol. The traditional downstream is in the off - season [1][2][3]. - The strategy suggests cautious long - hedging on the long side, and long spreads for MA2605 - MA2609 [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, such as the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][20][21]. 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import spread of methanol in Taicang [24][25]. 3.3 Methanol Start - up and Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol and the start - up rate of MTO/P are presented, as well as the inventory of inland factories and the start - up rate of Chinese methanol [32][39]. 3.4 Regional Spreads - The report provides data on regional spreads, including the spreads between different regions like Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc [36][45][47]. 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][53].