Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter 2025 revenues were $898.3 million, a decrease of $30.3 million or 3.3% compared to the first quarter of the previous year [49] - GAAP earnings per share (EPS) were $1.74 compared to $2.23 in the prior year quarter, while adjusted EPS was $2.29 compared to $2.23 in the prior year quarter [50] - Net income decreased to $61.8 million from $80 million in the prior year quarter, primarily driven by lower revenues and a special charge [51] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter 2025 was $115.2 million, or 12.8% of revenues, compared to $111.1 million, or 12% of revenues in the prior year quarter [53] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Corporate Finance and Restructuring revenues were $343.6 million, a decrease of 6.1% compared to the previous year, with Restructuring representing 46% of segment revenues [56] - Forensic and Litigation Consulting (FLC) achieved record revenues of $190.6 million, an increase of 8.3%, driven by higher realized bill rates for Risk and Investigation services [59] - Economic Consulting revenues decreased by 12.1% to $179.9 million, primarily due to lower demand for M&A-related antitrust services [61] - Technology revenues decreased by 3.5% to $97.2 million, mainly due to lower demand for M&A-related second request services [64] - Strategic Communications revenues increased by 7.2% to $87 million, driven by higher demand for corporate reputation services [66] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The federal premerger notification program recorded just 89 transactions in March 2025, marking the lowest monthly filing total in nearly five years [66] - U.S. deal volume fell 13% year over year, with only one mega-deal over $10 billion announced in Q1 [75] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on helping clients navigate disruptions in areas such as cybersecurity, export controls, and regulatory advocacy [79] - The restructuring practice is positioned to assist clients globally, with a strong emphasis on adapting to changing market conditions [79] - The company continues to invest in talent acquisition, particularly in areas like antitrust, financial economics, and digital assets, despite the near-term financial impact [78] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding the potential impact of regulatory changes on business performance, particularly in areas like anti-consumer fraud and anti-money laundering [17][90] - There is significant uncertainty in the M&A market, which could affect demand for related services in Economic Consulting and Technology [75] - Despite challenges, management remains confident in the company's long-term prospects and the strength of its various business segments [44][48] Other Important Information - The company funded $162 million in forgivable loans to attract new talent, which will impact adjusted EBITDA in the near term [73] - The board of directors authorized an additional $400 million for share repurchases, with approximately $568.3 million remaining available under the program [71] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on business - Management noted that tariffs could create stress for clients dependent on cost of goods sold from China, leading to increased demand for restructuring services [86] Question: Effect of regulatory changes on business - Management indicated that while there has not been a significant effect from recent regulatory changes, they are monitoring the situation closely [90] Question: Guidance for the year - Management confirmed that the guidance provided at the fourth quarter 2024 earnings call is still applicable and will be updated at the second quarter earnings call [94] Question: Revenue headwind from departures in Economic Consulting - Management acknowledged that the financial impact from departures is likely to be higher than previously speculated, affecting EBITDA significantly [102] Question: Trends in healthcare business within FLC - Management reported good performance in healthcare practices, with both regulatory-oriented and performance improvement segments showing positive results [112] Question: Distribution of headcount actions - Management stated that headcount actions were spread across all levels and geographies, with a slight bias towards senior positions [119]

来源 | 智堡Mikko 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 本文翻译自鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部 的演讲与问答 摘要 一、经济现状与货币政策 1 经济基本面： 2 政策挑战： 二、贸易政策与市场影响 1 关税效应： 2 金融市场反应： 三、劳动力市场与长期风险 1 当前状态： 2 潜在威胁： • 美国经济保持稳固，劳动力市场接近充分就业，失业率稳定在4%左右。 • 通胀已从2022年峰值显著回落，但仍略高于2%的目标（核心PCE为2.6%）。 • 新政府政策（贸易、移民、财政、监管）带来高度不确定性，可能加剧通胀并抑制增长。 • 关税可能导致价格水平一次性上涨，若传导至消费者预期，或引发持续性通胀风险。 • 美联储需平衡双重使命（就业与通胀），警惕政策目标冲突（如高失业率与高通胀并存）。 • 已宣布的关税幅度超预期，直接影响包括： • 通胀抬升：进口成本增加可能转嫁给消费者。 • 供应链扰动：若导致关键商品短缺（如半导体），可能延长通胀压力。 • 企业普遍反映"政策不确定性"抑制投资决策，可能拖累长期经济增长。 • 股市波动加剧（VIX指数攀升），债券市场出现避险与收益率上升的背离现象。 • 美联储强调市 ...

【24 年Q4 业绩超预期上涨，全年业绩韧性凸显】 中信证券24 年Q4 单季/ 全年实现调整后营收161/579 亿元， 同比+35.5%/+5.2％；分别实现归母净利润 49/217 亿元，同比+48.3%/+10.1％。 【资本市场情绪回暖，带动全年自营业务收入增长】 自营业务方面，公司24 年Q4 单季/全年分别实现自营业务收入46.8 亿/263.5亿元，分别同 比-22.8%/+20.6%；24 年全年自营金融资产规模为8618 亿元，较去年同期+20.4%，投资收益率小幅提升 至3.06%。自24 年9 月末，频频出台稳定资本市场的相关政策，24 年沪深300 指数上涨14.7%，投资收 益率实现正增长，带动全年自营业务收入回暖，为全年业绩的主要驱动力。 【监管政策的边际趋严，导致投行与信用业务有所承压】 ①投行业务方面：公司24 年Q4 单季/全年实现投行业务收入13.4/41.6 亿元，同比+29.5%/-33.9%，业绩 承压的主要原因为受到监管政策边际趋严影响，证券承销规模下滑明显，其中全年IPO/再融资规模分别 为132.8/574.9亿元，分别同比-73.5%和-74.7%。 【市场 ...