Group 1: Macro Analysis - Understanding the relationship between stocks and bonds is crucial for macro asset allocation decisions[2] - Current liquidity improvement is primarily driven by the migration of household deposits, differing from the monetary easing seen in 2014-2015[5] - The scale of non-bank liquidity growth in the first five months of 2025 is approximately CNY 6.2 trillion, compared to CNY 1.6 trillion in the same period of 2015[5][20] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The prevailing logic is to "look at stocks to do bonds," indicating a stock-driven market where risk appetite influences bond trading[3][4] - In the current environment, if stocks rise, bond yields are likely to follow, while a decline in stocks may lead to bond price increases[3][4] - The current market is characterized by a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds, rather than a simultaneous bullish trend in both[3][4] Group 3: Special Considerations - Unique factors this round include the difficulty for household deposits to return to real estate, leading to a stronger migration towards non-bank institutions[3] - The "stabilize the stock market" policy from the top down limits the downward expression of risk appetite in the stock market[3] - The current liquidity situation is not a result of improved economic expectations, contrasting with past trends where deposit migration followed economic recovery[8][27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial market dynamics influenced by geopolitical events, particularly the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and the implications for stock and bond markets. It highlights the importance of waiting for system signals rather than acting on uncertainty. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has led to a significant drop in oil prices and an increase in stock index futures [3] - The bond market showed stability in response to the ceasefire news, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.64% and fluctuating slightly [3] - The central bank conducted a small incremental operation of MLF, leading to a slight decrease in bond yields [3] Group 2: Financial Indicators - The central bank's open market operations included a 406.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 209.2 billion yuan after 197.3 billion yuan matured [1] - The overnight funding rate remained stable at around 1.37%, while the 7-day funding rate increased by 16 basis points to approximately 1.67% [1] - The weighted rates for various repo codes showed slight changes, with R001 at 1.44% and R007 at 1.82%, indicating a mixed sentiment in the interbank funding market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is to "look at stocks and then bonds," indicating that stock market performance should be assessed before making judgments on bonds [2][4] - The current economic state is described as "weak but not collapsing," with policies providing support but not fully lifting the economy, leading to limited downward pressure on corporate profits [2][3] - Inflation is expected to remain low, with CPI and PPI readings unlikely to hit new lows, and a risk of CPI not turning positive in the first half of the year due to weak price increases [2][3] Group 2 - The analysis of stock and bond markets indicates a competitive relationship, where a bull market in stocks could lead to a bear market in bonds, and vice versa [4][5] - The likelihood of a broad-based bull market is low, but there is a significant chance for a "technology sector rally," driven by high growth rates in the information transmission industry [5][6] - The economic environment is favorable for technology stocks, with fiscal spending growth matching nominal GDP growth, creating a conducive atmosphere for tech industry development [6][7] Group 3 - The bond market has likely passed its most severe adjustment phase, with current interest rates challenging the monetary policy framework, and the potential for new investment opportunities in bonds contingent on changes in economic conditions [8][10] - The focus on the second quarter's economic uncertainty suggests that defensive high-dividend sectors and elastic stocks may yield short-term gains, while the bond market could react to expectations of monetary easing [9][10] - The overall asset conclusion indicates a consensus on the technology sector's growth potential, with expectations that Hong Kong stocks may outperform A-shares, and bond investments will primarily focus on yield rather than capital appreciation unless significant economic changes occur [10]

二、交易量：居民存款搬家支撑，有望维持高位 各位投资者好，本期旬度的题目就是我们当前对大类资产的主要观点， " 看股做债，存款搬家定天下，行业景 气， AI 支出凝共识 " ，我今天将就经济形势、交易量、股债关系、市场风格、行业景气等方面，详细阐述我 们的思考。 一、经济形势：或仍是供过于求、物价偏弱 我们认为大的推动利润上行的因素，目前尚未看到 ，我们在前几次旬度会议中有所提及，从三大终端需求来 看： 1 ）财政支出，今年广义财政支出增速预计在 3.4-3.5% ，虽然预算草案中给出的增速是 5% ，但是我们认 为收入端的不确定性可能会制约支出增速。 2 ）社零，以旧换新的支持体量在 3000 亿，对应全年的社零增速 大概在 4% 左右； 3 ）固投，预计也是 3%-4% 左右。三大终端需求力量均未超过 5% ，意味着今年可能仍是供 过于求、物价偏弱、利润偏弱的状态。 对于通胀， 预计全年 PPI 为 -1.7% ， CPI 约 0% ， GDP 平减指数为负，价格整体仍偏弱，全年名义 GDP 预计 在 4.3%-4.5% 之间，虽然不会突破 2023 年 4.0%-4.2% 的低点，但也难以看到大的弹性。 ...