Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue in December 2025 experienced a significant decline of 25.0% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from December 2024, which saw a 40.4% increase in central fiscal revenue [1][6][9]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Analysis - In December 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 25.0% year-on-year, with tax revenue down by 11.5% and non-tax revenue down by 47.9% [6][7]. - The central general public budget revenue fell by 50.3%, while local general public budget revenue remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [6][7]. - The overall completion rate of the general public budget revenue for 2025 was 98.3%, indicating a satisfactory level despite the decline in December [9][10]. Group 2: Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue showed a pattern of being weak in the first half of 2025 but improved in the second half, with an overall annual growth of 0.8%, which was below the initial target of 3.7% [10][11]. - Specific tax categories such as stamp duty and personal income tax saw significant increases, with stamp duty growing by 24.1% and personal income tax by 11.5% [12][13]. - The growth in tax revenue was attributed to factors such as tax incentives, regulatory adjustments, and an active capital market [11][12]. Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Insights - The fiscal expenditure in 2025 showed a weak trend, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.0% and a completion rate of 96.8% [16][17]. - The expenditure structure revealed a focus on social security, environmental protection, and health, while infrastructure spending saw negative growth in several areas [12][16]. - The divergence between revenue and expenditure created a fiscal gap of 71,350 billion yuan, which was lower than the initial budget estimate [16][22]. Group 4: Government Fund Budget Overview - The government fund budget revenue for 2025 decreased by 14.7%, with land transfer income significantly impacted [21][22]. - The government fund budget expenditure increased by 11.3%, primarily driven by special bonds and other fiscal instruments [21][22]. - The fiscal gap in the government fund budget was 55,170 billion yuan, indicating a need for adjustments in fiscal policy to stabilize the real estate market [21][22]. Group 5: 2026 Fiscal Outlook - The early fiscal situation for 2026 suggests potential improvements in tax revenue due to rising industrial indices and PPI [23]. - The land market remains weak, with a significant decline in land transfer revenue, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [23]. - The issuance of bonds in early 2026 is expected to align with proactive fiscal policies aimed at stimulating economic activity [23].

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In 2025, total fiscal revenue reached 21.6 trillion, completing 98.3% of the initial budget, while total expenditure was 28.74 trillion, completing 96.8% of the budget, marking the lowest completion rate on record[3] - December 2025 fiscal revenue was 1.55 trillion, down 25% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 24.9 percentage points from the previous month[4] - December fiscal expenditure was 3.89 trillion, down 1.8% year-on-year, continuing a negative growth trend for three consecutive months[11] Structural Insights - Central government expenditure grew by 5.7% year-on-year, significantly outpacing local government expenditure, which only grew by 0.2%[3] - The proportion of general fiscal expenditure directed towards people's livelihoods increased to 38%, up 1.3 percentage points from 2024, while infrastructure-related expenditure decreased to 19.5%, down 1.9 percentage points[3] Future Projections - For 2026, it is anticipated that fiscal expansion will remain at a level comparable to 2025, with a focus on "investing in people" and an early release of "national subsidies" to stimulate economic growth[6] - A projected 580 billion in carryover funds from 2025 is expected to supplement the 2026 fiscal budget[2] Tax Revenue Expectations - A rebound in prices, particularly a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), is expected to increase tax revenue by approximately 1.4 percentage points, translating to an additional 2.4 trillion in tax revenue[8] - The PPI is forecasted to improve from -2.6% to -0.4% in 2026, which will positively impact tax bases, especially for value-added tax and corporate income tax[8] Short-term Considerations - Key areas of focus include local government GDP targets, potential carryover funds, and the performance of the economy in the first quarter of 2026, particularly in real estate and infrastructure[8]

Revenue Insights - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 1.0%[5] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 7.0% year-on-year, with expenditure rising by 11.3%[5] - In December 2025, general public budget revenue dropped by 25.0% year-on-year, while expenditure decreased by 1.8%[7] Expenditure Trends - December general public budget expenditure saw a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, an improvement from the previous decline of 3.7%[27] - Expenditure in December increased by over 70% month-on-month, aligning with seasonal trends due to year-end budget execution[27] - Non-living-related expenditures, including infrastructure and cultural projects, contributed to the expenditure increase, while living-related expenditures lagged behind seasonal expectations[27] Tax Revenue Dynamics - Tax revenue in December showed a month-on-month increase of only 0.9%, significantly lower than the historical average increase of 23.9%[16] - Major tax categories, including domestic VAT and consumption tax, experienced negative growth, reflecting economic pressures[19] - The reliance on non-tax revenue increased, with its share in the general public budget revenue rising to approximately 26%[27] Future Outlook and Risks - Tax revenue is expected to have some expansion potential due to new industry drivers and improved export resilience[38] - Risks include potential underperformance of incremental policies and continued weakness in the real estate market, which could further strain local government finances[39]

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 证券研究报告 财政：12 月收支变化与 2026 年开年预期 | [Table 分析师： | 吴棋滢 | | --- | --- | | _Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260519080003 | | | SFC CE.no: BQN213 | | | 021-38003588 | | | wuqiying@gf.com.cn | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 2025 年 12 月财政收入单月变化幅度较大（同比-25.0%），我们理解基数是主要原因。2024 年"924"后为完 成预算任务"安排有关中央单位上缴一部分专项收益"，带动中央财政收入走高（2024 年 12 月同比 40.4%）， 高基数之下 2025 年同期同比只有-50.3%；地方财政收入受基数影响相对较小，与前值的同比 4.1%大致持平。 根据财政部数据，2025 年 12 月一般公共预算收入同比-25.0%（前值-0.02%）；其中税收收入同比-11.5%（前 值 2.8%）、非税收入同比-47.9%（前值-10.8%）；中央一般公共预算收 ...

财政部发布2025年财政收支数据显示，2025年，全国一般公共预算收入实现21.6万亿元，比上年下降 1.7%。其中，税收收入约17.6万亿元，增长0.8%。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 在主体税种整体低增长的背景下，2025年个人所得税实现11.5%的高增长，这与居民收入稳步增长的密 切相关，2025年全国居民人均可支配收入4.34万元，比上年名义增长5%。 具体来看，2025年国内增值税实现6.89万亿元，增长3.4%；国内消费税1.69万亿元，增长2%；企业所得 税4.13万亿元，增长1%；个人所得税1.62万亿元，增长11.5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 fiscal revenue and expenditure report indicates a decline in general public budget revenue by 1.7% year-on-year, while expenditure shows a modest increase of 1%, reflecting a focus on social welfare and key sectors such as education and health [1][5]. Revenue Summary - In 2025, the total general public budget revenue reached 21,604.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the previous year [2]. - Tax revenue amounted to 17,636.3 billion yuan, showing a growth of 0.8%, while non-tax revenue fell by 11.3% to 3,968.2 billion yuan [2]. - Central government revenue decreased by 6.5% to 9,396.3 billion yuan, whereas local government revenue increased by 2.4% to 12,208.2 billion yuan [2]. - Key tax categories showed resilience, with domestic value-added tax growing by 3.4%, corporate income tax by 1%, and personal income tax by 11.5% [3]. Expenditure Summary - Total general public budget expenditure for 2025 was 28,739.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year [5]. - Central government expenditure rose by 5.7% to 43,034 billion yuan, while local government expenditure saw a slight increase of 0.2% to 244,361 billion yuan [5]. - Significant increases in spending were noted in social security and employment (6.7%), education (3.2%), and health (5.7%) [5][6]. - Approximately 100 billion yuan was allocated for childcare subsidies, marking a significant direct financial support initiative for families [6]. Future Outlook - The macroeconomic team at Huatai Securities anticipates a notable increase in fiscal reserves and deposits post-September 2025, which will support a strong start for 2026 [4].

华福证券 宏 观 研 究 财政支出降幅收窄 ——2025 年 12 月财政数据解读 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 全年收支未达目标。回顾 2025 年全年的财政收支，首先，税收收入明 显改善，尤其是增值税、个人所得税和企业所得税，是公共财政收入端的 重心；其次，财政支出侧重民生领域，基建类支出占比趋降；再次，支出 节奏前置，年末进度落后，全年预算短支；最后，土地财政持续低迷且波 动较大，对广义财政收入构成拖累。2025 年广义财政收入、支出增速分别 为-2.9%、3.7%，单独看 12 月当月的表现，2025 年 12 月广义财政收入较 上月回落 13.3 个百分点至-18.5%，广义支出增速较上月回升 1 个百分点至 -0.7%。收入端来看，12 月税收走弱受到高基数效应和经济放缓的影响，土 地出让收入对广义财政持续构成制约；支出端方面，融资前置导致年底后 劲略显不足，仅基建相关支出有明显改善。 财政依旧前置发力。展望 2026 年，一般公共预算赤字率或保持稳定， 同时，全国财政工作会议指出要"扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度"， 随着物价有望企稳回升，财政收入对于支出端的制约减弱，财政"增支" 的效果或更 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 21.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while expenditure was 28.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 1% [1] - The overall fiscal revenue in China remained stable, with tax revenue steadily rebounding and key areas of expenditure being well-supported [1][2] - Tax revenue grew by 0.8% in 2025, reflecting a steady upward trend in the economy, while non-tax revenue fell by 11.3% due to a high base from 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - Major tax categories such as value-added tax, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and individual income tax grew by 3.4%, 2%, 1%, and 11.5% respectively, accounting for about 81% of total tax revenue [2] - The growth in consumption tax was primarily driven by increases in cigarette and refined oil taxes, while corporate income tax growth was supported by the manufacturing sector [2] - The securities transaction stamp duty reached 203.5 billion yuan, a significant increase of 57.8%, indicating a strong correlation with market activity [2][3] Group 3 - National general public budget expenditure increased by 1%, with social security and employment, technology, education, and health spending rising by 6.7%, 4.8%, 3.2%, and 5.7% respectively, together accounting for about 42% of total expenditure [3] - Fiscal funds showed a clear trend of investing in human capital, with over 30 million infants receiving childcare subsidies [3] - In 2025, the total expenditure on special bonds and other financial instruments reached 6.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.69 trillion yuan or 37.6%, enhancing economic development momentum [3][4]

Revenue Summary - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue is projected to be 21,604.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared to 2024 [1] - Tax revenue is expected to be 17,636.3 billion yuan, an increase of 0.8%, while non-tax revenue is anticipated to decline by 11.3% to 39,682 billion yuan [1] - Central government revenue is forecasted at 93,963 billion yuan, down 6.5%, while local government revenue is expected to rise by 2.4% to 122,082 billion yuan [1] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax is projected at 68,947 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [1] - Corporate income tax is expected to reach 41,304 billion yuan, growing by 1% [1] - Personal income tax is forecasted to increase by 11.5% to 16,187 billion yuan [1] - Export tax rebates are projected to grow by 10.7% to 21,337 billion yuan, while import VAT and consumption tax are expected to decline by 4.8% to 18,263 billion yuan [1] Expenditure Summary - Total national general public budget expenditure is projected to be 28,739.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1% from 2024 [2] - Central government expenditure is expected to rise by 5.7% to 43,034 billion yuan, while local government expenditure is projected to grow by 0.2% to 244,361 billion yuan [2] Major Expenditure Categories - Education expenditure is forecasted at 43,417 billion yuan, increasing by 3.2% [2] - Social security and employment expenditure is expected to grow by 6.7% to 44,416 billion yuan [2] - Health expenditure is projected to rise by 5.7% to 21,446 billion yuan [2] Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue is expected to be 57,700 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% [3] - Government fund budget expenditure is projected to increase by 11.3% to 112,900 billion yuan, driven by accelerated bond fund usage [3] - Total expenditure on special bonds and financial institution injections is expected to reach 61,900 billion yuan, an increase of 37.6% compared to 2024 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's fiscal revenue for 2025 is projected to be 21.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 1.7% compared to the previous year, with tax revenue showing a modest increase of 0.8% [1] - The overall fiscal revenue is expected to operate steadily, with tax revenue showing a gradual recovery, indicating a stable economic development trend [1] - Non-tax revenue is expected to decline significantly by 11.3%, primarily due to a high base effect from one-time special revenue payments made by central units in 2024 [1] Group 2 - In terms of tax categories, domestic value-added tax is projected to grow by 3.4%, while domestic consumption tax is expected to increase by 2%, driven mainly by the growth in tobacco and refined oil consumption taxes [1] - Corporate income tax is anticipated to rise by 1%, with an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, largely supported by the manufacturing sector [1] - Personal income tax is expected to grow by 11.5%, and securities transaction stamp duty is projected to increase significantly by 57.8% [1] Group 3 - Local general public budget revenue is expected to increase by 2.4% in 2025, with 27 out of 31 regions experiencing revenue growth compared to 2024 [2] - National general public budget expenditure is projected to reach 28.74 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1% [2] - Government fund budget revenue is expected to decline by 7%, with land use rights revenue decreasing by 14.7% [2] Group 4 - Government fund budget expenditure is projected to grow by 11.3%, with significant spending on special bonds and other financial instruments amounting to 619 billion yuan to support economic recovery [2]