1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "oscillation", and for coking coal is also "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, geopolitical disturbances are released. Coking coal will return to its own logic. Although it followed the decline of crude oil, the bulls' resistance is strong. For coke, the fifth round of price cut has been implemented, and there is little room for further cuts, with a price increase expected in July. It is recommended to hold a small - amount long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot and Futures Market - The spot price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 868 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is 784 yuan/ton (down 23 yuan), the basis is 104 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 43.5 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan) [2] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Mine and coal washery production is increasing. The operating rate of 523 mines is 84.49% (up 0.78%), and that of 110 coal washeries is 61.34% (up 3.2%). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.42% (down 0.54%) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is increasing, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 499.15 million tons (up 13.11 million tons), that of coal washeries is 237.39 million tons (down 14.08 million tons), that of 247 steel mills is 774.66 million tons (up 0.68 million tons), that of 230 coking enterprises is 665.65 million tons (down 3.88 million tons), and port inventory is 303.31 million tons (down 8.71 million tons) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot and Futures Market - The fourth round of spot price cut has been implemented. The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is 1220 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), the active contract is 1351.5 yuan/ton (down 33.5 yuan), the basis is - 40 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 48 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply is decreasing, and demand is slightly increasing. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.42% (down 0.54%), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.79% (up 0.21%), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4218 million tons (up 0.57 million tons) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Both upstream and downstream inventories are decreasing, and port inventory is flat. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 80.93 million tons (down 6.38 million tons), that of 247 steel mills is 634.2 million tons (down 8.64 million tons), and port inventory is 203.11 million tons (up 0.02 million tons) [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel led to a sharp decline in crude oil. Domestically, the social financing performance in May was weak, and the real - estate policy has been relaxed, but investors' pessimistic attitude towards real estate is hard to reverse in the short term. The coking coal supply is increasing, and the inventory inflection point may take time. For coke, the cost and demand are decisive factors. It is recommended to hold a small - amount long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "oscillation", and for coking coal is also "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the end of the Iran - Israel conflict, the disturbance of crude oil on coking coal will end. Short - term decline in crude oil may drag down coking coal. Domestically, the social financing performance in May was weak, and the real - estate market policies have not effectively reversed investors' pessimistic attitude. The implementation of crude steel production restrictions is under discussion, but steel mills have low willingness to cut production [4]. - For coking coal, the resumption of production at mines and coal preparation plants is verified as passive production cuts. Inventory at mines is rising, while that at coal preparation plants is decreasing. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost of coke has limited downward space and will provide support. The supply - demand of coke has shown marginal improvement [5]. - After the short - term release of crude oil disturbance, coking coal will return to its own logic. Pay attention to coking coal's reaction to crude oil disturbance. Short - term recommendation is to hold a small long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upwards. Mongolian No. 5 primary coking coal is reported at 868 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is at 807 yuan/ton (+12). The basis is 81 yuan/ton (-12), and the September - January spread is -36 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. Supply - Mines and coal preparation plants have resumed production. The operating rate of 523 mines is 84.49% (+0.78), and that of 110 coal preparation plants is 61.34% (+3.2). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.42% (-0.54) [2]. Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, while downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 499.15 million tons (+13.11), that of coal preparation plants is 237.39 million tons (-14.08), that of 247 steel mills is 774.66 million tons (+0.68), that of 230 coking enterprises is 665.65 million tons (-3.88), and port inventory is 303.31 million tons (-8.71) [2]. Coke Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upwards. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1270 yuan/ton (unchanged), and some steel mills have proposed a fourth - round price cut. The active contract is at 1385 yuan/ton (+0.5). The basis is -18.5 yuan/ton (-0.5), and the September - January spread is -39 yuan/ton (-12) [3]. Supply and Demand - Supply has decreased, while demand has slightly increased. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.42% (-0.54). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.79% (+0.21), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4218 million tons (+0.57) [3]. Inventory - Upstream and downstream inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory remains flat. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 80.93 million tons (-6.38), that of 247 steel mills is 634.2 million tons (-8.64), and port inventory is 203.11 million tons (+0.02) [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Hold a small long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom. Pay attention to coking coal's reaction to crude oil disturbance. If coking coal is relatively resistant to decline when crude oil weakens, it may rise again after crude oil volatility decreases. If coking coal is sold off with large - scale position - increasing, it may return to a weak trend. Active production cuts at mines or administrative production cuts can trigger a continuous rebound [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock", and for coking coal is also "shock" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran has caused the price of crude oil to rise. Coking coal, as an energy-related variety, indirectly benefits and rises under the narrative of rising energy costs. However, the deterioration of the Middle East situation may also drag down the global economic recovery, so its medium - to - long - term impact on coking coal prices is unclear. In China, the social financing performance in May was weaker than expected, with weak financing demand from residents and enterprises. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value slowed down, while the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods increased. The supply - demand gap further narrowed, which is expected to boost the price level. The State Council executive meeting mentioned promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, and Guangzhou fully lifted purchase restrictions. There are also policies such as disguised price cuts through housing purchase coupons in some cities. The implementation time of crude steel production restrictions is uncertain, and currently, steel mills have sufficient profits and lack the motivation to cut production. Overall, the economic data in May was weak, but the market reaction was positive after the data was released on the 16th, and the real estate sector rose significantly. In a situation of extremely low valuations, reverse trading increased, and the bottom is gradually taking shape [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures Situation**: Spot prices stopped falling, and futures prices fluctuated. The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 868 yuan/ton (+8), and the active contract was reported at 790.5 yuan/ton (+1). The basis was 97.5 yuan/ton (+7), and the September - January spread was - 25 yuan/ton (-7.5) [2] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: Mines and coal washing plants started to resume production. The operating rate of 523 mines was reported at 83.7% (-0.94), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was reported at 61.34% (+3.98), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.96% (-0.97) [2] - **Inventory Situation**: Upstream inventory increased, and downstream inventory decreased. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was reported at 486.04 million tons (+5.31), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 251.47 million tons (+6.41), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 773.98 million tons (+3.07), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 669.53 (-21), and the port inventory was 312.02 million tons (-1) [2] Coke - **Spot and Futures Situation**: Spot prices were weak, and futures prices fluctuated. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1270 yuan/ton (-0), and the active contract was reported at 1375 yuan/ton (+9.5). The basis was - 9 yuan/ton (-9.5), and the September - January spread was - 28 yuan/ton (-5.5) [3] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Supply decreased, and demand remained flat. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.96% (-0.94). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 90.58% (-0.07), and the daily average pig iron output was 241.61 million tons (-0.19) [3] - **Inventory Situation**: Upstream inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and downstream inventory continued to decrease. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 87.31 million tons (-1.1), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 642.84 million tons (-2.96), and the port inventory was 203.09 million tons (-11.06) [3] Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small - position long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom. The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to an increase in the price of crude oil, and coking coal, as an energy - related variety, indirectly benefits. However, the impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal prices in the medium - to - long - term is unclear. Domestically, although the economic data in May was weak, the market reaction was positive, and the bottom is gradually taking shape. For coking coal, the resumption of production in coal washing plants and mines this week confirmed that the previous production cuts were mainly passive due to safety and environmental protection. The coal washing plants have started to reduce inventory, and it is likely that mines will also reduce inventory in the future. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The previous decline has pushed the cost to the limit, and the market expects the bottom to be around the previous low point. The production capacity of coking enterprises has started to decline rapidly this week, and the supply - demand situation of coke has improved marginally [4][5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the escalation of the Middle - East situation on the medium - and long - term coking coal price is unclear. Domestically, the May social financing performance was weaker than expected, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value slowed down, while the social retail growth rate increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and potentially boosting prices. The government is promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, and the steel industry's production reduction plan is to be implemented but the timing is uncertain [4] - In the coking coal market, under safety and environmental disturbances, production at mines and coal washeries has decreased significantly, but inventories are still rising. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved [5] - The market reacted positively to the weak May economic data, indicating that as valuations are extremely low, reverse trading is increasing and a bottom is gradually forming [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, and futures are moving sideways. The Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is at 789.5 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan). The basis is 90.5 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the September - January spread is - 17.5 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan) [1] 3.1.2 Supply - Mines and coal washeries have reduced production. The operating rate of 523 mines is 83.7% (down 0.94), and the operating rate of 110 coal washeries is 57.36% (down 3.23) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories are increasing, and downstream inventories are decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 486.04 million tons (up 5.31 million tons), and that of coal washeries is 251.47 million tons (up 6.41 million tons). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 773.98 million tons (up 3.07 million tons), and that of 230 coking enterprises is 669.53 million tons (down 21 million tons). Port inventories are 312.02 million tons (down 1 million tons) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, and futures are moving sideways. The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1270 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is at 1365.5 yuan/ton (down 5.5 yuan). The basis is - 0 yuan/ton (up 5.5 yuan), and the September - January spread is - 21.5 yuan/ton (down 4.5 yuan) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has decreased, and demand has remained flat. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.96% (down 0.94), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.58% (down 0.07), and the daily average pig iron output is 241.61 million tons (down 0.19 million tons) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have shifted from increasing to decreasing, and downstream inventories have continued to decline. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 87.31 million tons (down 1.1 million tons), that of 247 steel mills is 642.84 million tons (down 2.96 million tons), and port inventories are 203.09 million tons (down 11.06 million tons) [3] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add to the position after confirming the bottom [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coke - Oscillation [1] - Coking Coal - Oscillation with a Weak Bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran continues, and concerns about crude oil supply have led to a significant increase in international oil prices. Coking coal, as an energy - related variety, indirectly benefits from the rising energy costs. However, the long - term impact on coking coal prices is unclear due to the potential drag on global economic recovery. In China, the May social financing performance remains weak, with weak financing demand from residents and enterprises, and only government bond financing provides support. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value has slowed down, while the social retail growth rate has increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and potentially boosting price levels. The State Council executive meeting has proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, and Guangzhou has fully lifted purchase restrictions. There are also rumors that the crude steel production limit is about 30 million tons, less than the previously expected 50 million tons. Overall, the May economic data is weak, but the market reaction after the data release on the 16th was positive, with the real estate sector rising significantly [5]. - For coking coal, the production of mines and coal washing plants has been significantly reduced, but the inventory in mines and coal washing plants is still rising, although the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The reduction in supply has not effectively affected the inventory. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost has reached a low level, and the market expects the bottom to be around the previous low point. The capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises has started to decline rapidly this week, the blast furnace profit is maintained at around 100, the molten iron output is stable, and the supply - demand of coke has marginally improved [6]. - The probability of further expansion of the Israel - Iran conflict is limited. The night - session decline in crude oil prices has led to a weakening of coking coal. Unless crude oil price fluctuations increase again, coking coal will return to its own logic. In extreme market conditions, capital game dominates. Since the recent rebound, the net position of the top 20 in coking coal has significantly converged, but the total position has not significantly decreased, indicating that the battle between long and short positions is not over. It is recommended to hold a small - position long order of J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upward. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 795.5 yuan/ton (+21), the basis is 102.5 yuan/ton (-21), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 15 yuan/ton (-1.5) [2]. 3.1.2 Supply - Mine production continues to decrease, and the capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises has been adjusted downward. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 83.7% (-0.94), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 57.36% (-3.23), and the production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 73.96% (-0.97) [3]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, while downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.8604 million tons (+53,100 tons), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 2.5147 million tons (+64,100 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.7398 million tons (+30,700 tons), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 6.6953 million tons (-210,000 tons), and the port inventory is 3.1202 million tons (-10,000 tons) [3]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upward. The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1270 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 1371 yuan/ton (+21.5), the basis is - 5 yuan/ton (-21.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 21.5 yuan/ton (-4.5) [4]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has decreased, while demand remains flat. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 73.96% (-0.94). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.58% (-0.07), and the daily average molten iron output is 2.4161 million tons (-19,000 tons) [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory has changed from accumulation to reduction, and downstream inventory continues to decrease. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 87,310 tons (-1,100 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 642,840 tons (-2,960 tons), and the port inventory is 203,090 tons (-11,060 tons) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "oscillation", and for coking coal is "oscillation with a weakening bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Since June, the macro - environment has been gradually improving. The market is becoming less sensitive to Sino - US trade frictions, and real - estate policies may speed up the industry's bottoming. The rumored crude steel production limit is set at around 30 million tons, which will change the long - short balance in the black sector [4] - For coking coal, supply is slightly shrinking due to inventory overstock and safety and environmental protection restrictions. The key is to monitor the signals of mine - end active production cuts or administrative production cuts. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost side is expected to support rather than drag down the price, and factors such as cost rebound or crude steel reduction boosting industrial chain profits will drive the price up [5] - In extreme market conditions, coking coal is the main battlefield for long - short games. There is a possibility of a short - seller counter - attack. Once the price drops again, it may lead to a double - kill situation for both long and short positions [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices are weak, and futures are oscillating. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (- 15), and the active contract is reported at 766.5 yuan/ton (- 17). The basis is 131.5 yuan/ton (+ 17), and the September - January spread is - 12.5 yuan/ton (- 3) [1] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Mine and coal - washing plant开工率 have declined slightly. The开工率 of 523 mines is reported at 86.3% (- 2.96), and that of 110 coal - washing plants is reported at 60.59% (- 0.96) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.4753 million tons (+ 370,800), and that of coal - washing plants is 2.1474 million tons (+ 114,800). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.9875 million tons (+ 75,400), and that of 230 coking enterprises is 7.3796 million tons (- 146,000). The port inventory is 3.0156 million tons (- 45,300) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices are weak, and futures are oscillating. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke is reported at 1,270 yuan/ton (- 0), and the active contract is reported at 1,328.5 yuan/ton (- 27.5). The basis is 37 yuan/ton (+ 27.5), and the September - January spread is - 19.5 yuan/ton (- 2) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply remains flat, and demand has peaked and declined. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 74.93% (- 0.15). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.32% (- 0.44), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.436 million tons (- 11,700) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 88,410 tons (+ 10,080), that of 247 steel mills is 645,800 tons (- 9,130), and the port inventory is 214,150 tons (- 3,030) [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small - position long order for the J09 contract and wait to increase the position after confirming the market bottom [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The rating for coke is "sideways" [1]. - The rating for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since June, the macro - environment has been gradually improving. The market is becoming less sensitive to Sino - US trade frictions, and China's monetary policy continues to strengthen. The real - estate policy may accelerate the industry's bottom - hitting process, and the rumored crude steel production limit policy could change the market's long - short balance [4]. - For coking coal, supply is slightly shrinking due to inventory topping and safety and environmental protection restrictions. The key signals to watch are mine - end active or administrative production cuts. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost of coke is likely to provide support, and factors like cost rebound or crude steel reduction boosting industrial chain profits could drive up the price of coke [5]. - In extreme market conditions, coking coal is the main battlefield for long - short games. There is a possibility of short - sellers pushing prices down again. The market bottom can be confirmed by significant position reduction with rapid price decline or mine - end production cuts. Short - term advice is to hold a small long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Mine开工率 decreased slightly, with 523 mines reporting an 86.3%开工率 (-2.96) and 110 coal - washing plants reporting a 60.59%开工率 (-0.96). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises remained flat at 74.93% (-0.15) [2]. Inventory - Upstream inventory increased, with 523 mines having 447.53 million tons of clean coal inventory (+37.08) and coal - washing plants having 214.74 million tons of clean coal inventory (+11.48). Downstream inventory decreased, with 247 steel mills having 798.75 million tons of inventory (+7.54), 230 coking enterprises having 737.96 million tons of inventory (-14.6), and port inventory at 301.56 million tons (-4.53) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal was reported at 878 yuan/ton (-15), the active contract was at 783.5 yuan/ton (-1.5), the basis was 114.5 yuan/ton (-13.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -9.5 yuan/ton (-3) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises remained flat at 74.93% (-0.15). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased to 91.32% (-0.44), and the daily average pig iron output was 243.6 million tons (-1.17) [3]. Inventory - Upstream inventory increased, with 230 coking enterprises having 88.41 million tons of inventory (+10.08). Downstream inventory decreased, with 247 steel mills having 645.8 million tons of inventory (-9.13) and port inventory at 214.15 million tons (-3.03) [3]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1270 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract was at 1356 yuan/ton (+7), the basis was 10 yuan/ton (-7), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -17.5 yuan/ton (-2) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coking coal - Oscillating weakly [1] - Coke - Oscillating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Since June, the macro - environment has been gradually improving. Sino - US trade frictions have less impact on prices, China's monetary policy continues to strengthen, real - estate policies may speed up the industry's bottom - out process, and the rumored crude steel production limit policy may change the long - short balance [4]. - For coking coal, supply is slightly shrinking due to inventory and environmental restrictions, and attention should be paid to signals of active or administrative production cuts at the mine end. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost end will provide support, and factors such as cost rebound or crude steel reduction can drive the price up [5]. - Yesterday, the black sector had a deep V - shaped market affected by Sino - US negotiation news. Coking coal is the main battlefield of long - short game. Short - term J09 long positions can be held lightly and additional positions can be added after the market bottom is confirmed [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Mine and coal - washing plant开工率 decreased slightly, while the productivity of independent coking enterprises was basically flat. 523 mines had an开工率 of 86.3% (- 2.96), 110 coal - washing plants had an开工率 of 60.59% (- 0.96), and 230 independent coking enterprises had a productivity of 74.93% (- 0.15) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory increased and downstream inventory decreased. 523 mines had a clean coal inventory of 447.53 million tons (+ 37.08), coal - washing plants had a clean coal inventory of 214.74 million tons (+ 11.48), 247 steel mills had an inventory of 798.75 million tons (+ 7.54), 230 coking enterprises had an inventory of 737.96 million tons (- 14.6), and port inventory was 301.56 million tons (- 4.53) [2] Spot Price and Spread - Spot prices decreased, while futures prices rebounded. Mongolian 5 main coking coal was reported at 893 yuan/ton (- 0), the active contract was reported at 785 yuan/ton (+ 5), the basis was 128 yuan/ton (- 5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 6.5 yuan/ton (+ 7) [1] Coke Supply and Demand - Supply was flat, and demand reached its peak and declined. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.93% (- 0.15), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 91.32% (- 0.44), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.436 million tons (- 1.17) [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory increased and downstream inventory decreased. 230 coking enterprises had an inventory of 88.41 million tons (+ 10.08), 247 steel mills had an inventory of 645.8 million tons (- 9.13), and port inventory was 214.15 million tons (- 3.03) [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The third round of spot price cuts was implemented, and futures prices rebounded. Tianjin Port's quasi - first - grade coke was reported at 1270 yuan/ton (- 0), the active contract was reported at 1349 yuan/ton (+ 10), the basis was 17 yuan/ton (- 10), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 15.5 yuan/ton (+ 5.5) [3]

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 PPI 仍未止跌，焦煤增仓下行，等待二次触底 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 10 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 1. 五月份，中国 CPI 同比下降 0.1%，降幅与上月持平，PPI 同比下降 3.3%，降幅比 上月扩大 0.6 个百分点。 现货第三轮提降落地，期货走平。天津港准一级焦报 1270 元/吨(-0)。活跃合约报 1339 元/吨(-11.5)。基差 26.59 元/吨(+11.5)，9-1 月差-21 元/吨(+1.5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the steel market fluctuated little in the first half - month and declined continuously in the second half, breaking the previous low. Macroeconomic policies have limited impact on the black - series commodities, and the overall demand intensity is lower than expected. Although steel mills' profits are in a good state, the balance of steel supply and demand is fragile. There is a possibility of a seasonal decline in demand, and the raw material cost may decrease. The downward trend of the steel industry has not ended, but if there are corresponding production - limiting measures for coking coal, it may help form a phased bottom. Also, the steel basis is likely to weaken in June, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of construction at construction sites was slow, steel exports faced tariff barriers, and the decline of coking coal drove down the price of steel. During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, affected by the trade war, the overall commodity market declined significantly. Currently, the steel market shows characteristics of low - level range fluctuations [8]. 3.2 Currency and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally showed a rising trend, and the M1 - M2 gap slightly narrowed in April. In April, RMB loans decreased significantly to less than 10 billion, and the year - on - year difference between social financing and M2 declined [11]. 3.3 Price Index - In April, CPI was - 0.1 with a flat month - on - month change, and PPI was - 2.7, a further decline of 0.2 compared to March. The manufacturing PMI in April was 49, below the boom - bust line [14]. 3.4 Steel Production - In April, the crude steel output was 86.01 million tons, similar to the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative output was 345 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The pig iron output was 289 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.81 million tons, and the cumulative output since this year decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. The cumulative pig iron output increased by 3.9% year - on - year, and although the current pig iron output has declined compared to the previous period, it is still at an absolute high level [17]. 3.5 Blast Furnace Production No specific content provided. 3.6 Building Material Production - The production of rebar has been stable recently, maintaining at around 2.3 million tons. The cumulative rebar output decreased by 5% year - on - year, and the decline has gradually narrowed [22]. 3.7 Rebar Production Profit - The long - process rebar profit in East and Central China is around 160 yuan/ton, and in North China it is around 200 yuan/ton. The long - process spot immediate profit has been good this year, ensuring the production enthusiasm of steel mills [25]. 3.8 Short - Process Production - The short - process production is generally low. Currently, the profit during off - peak electricity hours is basically at the break - even point, and there are overall losses during peak electricity hours [28]. 3.9 Electric Furnace Profit No specific content provided. 3.10 Coil Production - The hot - rolled coil output declined after April and is still lower than the same period last year. The output of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils is the highest in the same period. The cumulative output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly year - on - year, while the output of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates increased slightly [33]. 3.11 Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit - The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China is around 200 yuan/ton, in North China it is around 100 yuan/ton, and in Central China it is around the break - even point. The overall profit of coils is slightly lower than that of rebar [36]. 3.12 Steel Demand - With the decline in price and the arrival of the off - season, the trading volume of construction steel has further decreased to around 100,000 tons, and the spot sentiment has continued to decline [39]. 3.13 Building Material Consumption - In May, the consumption of building materials generally declined, lower than the same period last year. The cumulative apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 5% year - on - year, and that of wire rods decreased by 10% year - on - year. As the demand enters the off - season, attention should be paid to the decline rate [42]. 3.14 Real Estate Data - In April, the newly - started area of real estate decreased by 22% compared to March, and the decline deepened. From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 24.1%. From January to April, the land purchase cost decreased by 5.9%, and the construction area decreased by 9.7%, both showing a continuous weakening trend. In the future, it is difficult for the real estate construction demand to improve significantly [44]. 3.15 Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 2%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 1.9% [47]. 3.16 Cement and Concrete - In May, the outbound shipment volume of cement and concrete was relatively balanced but lower than the same period last year [50]. 3.17 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to April, fixed - asset investment increased by 4% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2% compared to the period from January to March. Infrastructure investment increased by 10.85%, and the growth rate decreased by 0.65%. Manufacturing investment showed a slight weakening trend [53]. 3.18 Local Government Bonds - From January to April, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 1.49 trillion yuan, including 302.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 1.19 trillion yuan of special bonds. The issuance speed decreased in April. More than 80% of the 2 - trillion - yuan refinancing special bond resources have been implemented this year, and the peak issuance period has passed. Subsequently, the issuance of local government bonds will mainly be new bonds [56]. 3.19 Coil Consumption - The demand for coils remains strong, at a relatively high level in the same period. The cumulative apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils increased by 1% year - on - year, that of cold - rolled coils increased by 0.9%, and that of medium - thick plates increased by 2.7% [58]. 3.20 Automobiles and Home Appliances - From January to April, automobile sales were 10.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%, including 2.16 million exports, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. From January to April, the output of air conditioners increased by 7.2% year - on - year, refrigerators decreased by 0.7%, and washing machines increased by 10.9%. Home appliance exports still maintained positive growth [62]. 3.21 Steel Exports - Steel exports remained at a high level. From January to April, the export volume was 37.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. There was a certain "rush - to - export" factor in the early stage, and the export volume may decline later. Since this year, the export of steel billets has increased significantly, with a cumulative export of 3.34 million tons from January to April, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons [65]. 3.22 Steel Inventory - Currently, steel inventory is still in the destocking stage, and the destocking is usually basically completed by the end of June [67]. 3.23 Rebar Inventory - Rebar inventory is seasonally destocking. Although the absolute level is low, the inventory - to - consumption ratio is basically normal. According to simple seasonal projections, the inventory will continue to decline [70]. 3.24 Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - The destocking of hot - rolled coil inventory is relatively fast, and it has now dropped to a low level in the same period. According to seasonal projections, the inventory will continue to decline, but due to the possible weakening of exports, the demand may face a more - than - seasonal decline [73]. 3.25 Inventory of Other Varieties - The inventory of wire rods is similar to that of rebar, with a relatively low absolute level. The destocking of medium - thick plate inventory is going smoothly, while the cold - rolled coil inventory shows counter - seasonal accumulation [78]. 3.26 Rebar Basis - The rebar basis remained high in May with little change. Futures prices fell faster, while spot prices were somewhat resistant due to low inventory. According to past rules, it is highly likely that the basis will decline after June. Currently, the basis is at a relatively high level in the same period, with limited upward space. Attention should be paid to the possibility of basis weakening caused by demand decline [82]. 3.27 Hot - Rolled Coil Basis - The hot - rolled coil basis strengthened in May. The good destocking of spot inventory, strong domestic demand, and high export volume supported the relatively strong operation of the spot market. Later, attention should be paid to the possible decline in exports, which may put downward pressure on the hot - rolled coil basis [86]. 3.28 Rebar Monthly Spread - The spread between the October and January contracts of rebar was low and fluctuated little [91]. 3.29 Hot - Rolled Coil Monthly Spread - The hot - rolled coil monthly spread strengthened in May. After approaching the flat - water level, there was a lack of further upward momentum [95]. 3.30 Coil - Rebar Spread No specific content provided. 3.31 Spot Regional Spread No specific content provided. 3.32 Spot Variety Spread No specific content provided.