1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing up 0.49% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing up 0.22% [1] - In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and there are still risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.49%, and the main contract of London Gold decreased by 0.50%. The main contract of Comex gold increased by 0.31% [1][2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war risks, US stagflation risk, and strong employment suppressing interest rate cuts [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump's new tariff measures on 14 countries, including 25% on Japan and South Korea, 50% on copper, and up to 200% on drugs [1] - **Monetary**: The Fed's meeting minutes show low support for a July interest rate cut, and strong employment rules out the possibility of a near - term rate cut. The market expects the next rate cut in September, with the total rate cut space in 2025 falling back to around 50 basis points [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] Silver - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.63%, and the main contract of London Silver decreased by 1.74%. The main contract of Comex silver decreased by 0.27% [6] - **Core Logic**: Gold price is the anchor for silver price, with reduced capital positions and slightly increased visible inventory [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance rate is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $67103.64 billion [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68% [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP annualized year - on - year is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is - 0.50%, and the unemployment rate is 4.10% [10] - **Other Data**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.57%, the US dollar index is 97.55, and the geopolitical risk index is 132.88 [8][11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for future interest rate changes [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to be weak in the short term, silver strong, high - level volatility in the medium term, and a stepped upward trend in the long term. The strategy is for conservative investors to wait and for aggressive investors to buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] - The price of silver is expected to show a short - term weakening trend, and the strategy is the same as that for gold [3][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Gold - Today, gold is weak and silver is strong. The Shanghai gold main contract closed down 1%, and the Shanghai silver main contract closed down 0.2% [3] - The core logic is that in the short term, the risk of hedging has eased in the new stage of the trade war, but the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still remain. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed expectations of interest - rate cuts [3] - In terms of hedging attributes, Trump wrote to 14 countries notifying new tariffs, and close allies Japan and South Korea are subject to a 25% tariff [3] - In terms of monetary attributes, the Fed paper shows that there is still a possibility that interest rates will fall to near - zero levels. Strong overall US employment growth has ruled out the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. In June, non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than the estimated 110,000, but nearly half of the non - farm employment growth came from the government sector, and the increase in private - sector jobs was the smallest in eight months. The market currently expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points [3] - In terms of commodity attributes, the investment demand for gold offsets the decline in jewelry demand, while the expected industrial demand for silver is under pressure [3] 3.2 Silver - Gold price trends anchor silver prices. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETFs have reduced positions again. In terms of inventory, the short - term visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [7][8] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 4.50%, discount rate: 4.50%, reserve balance rate: 4.40%, total Fed assets: $6,710.364 billion, M2 year - on - year: 4.50% [10] - Ten - year US Treasury real yield: 2.59%, US dollar index: 97.51, US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year): 0.52, US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year): 0, US - EU Treasury yield spread (10 - year): 1.85, US - China Treasury yield spread (10 - year): 3.29 [10][13] - CPI year - on - year: 2.40%, CPI month - on - month: 0.20%, core CPI year - on - year: 2.80%, core CPI month - on - month: 0.20% [13] - US GDP annualized year - on - year: 1.90%, unemployment rate: 4.10%, non - farm payrolls monthly change: 147,000, labor participation rate: 62.60%, average hourly wage growth rate: 3.70% [13] - US labor market weekly working hours: 34.20 hours, ADP employment: - 33,000, initial jobless claims: 233,000, job vacancies: 7.604 million, Challenger corporate layoffs: 48,000 [13] - NAHB housing market index: 32.00, existing home sales: 4.03 million units, new home sales: 560,000 units, new home starts: 1.152 million units [13] - Retail sales year - on - year: 4.71%, retail sales month - on - month: - 0.22%, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year: 4.55%, personal consumption expenditure month - on - month: - 0.14% [13] - US exports year - on - year: - 34.52%, exports month - on - month: - 12.73%, imports year - on - year: - 18.13%, imports month - on - month: - 13.99%, trade balance: - $71.5 billion [13] - ISM manufacturing PMI: 49.00, ISM services PMI: 50.80, Markit manufacturing PMI: 0.00, Markit services PMI: 0.00 [13] - Central bank gold reserves: China 2,298.55 tons, US 8,133.46 tons, world total 36,250.15 tons [14] - Global gold/reserves: 22.18%, China gold/reserves: 6.78%, US gold/reserves: 78.64% [14] - Geopolitical risk index: 132.88, up 126.93% from the previous day and 23.60% from last week [14] 4. Trading Strategies - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors are advised to buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3][8]

Group 1 - Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel while hostilities were ongoing, indicating a desire for peace in the region [1] - Trump's frustration with Israel's actions reflects his urgent push for a ceasefire, as he feels limited in his options regarding Iran due to high tariffs [3] - The economic implications of Trump's tariffs are significant, with predictions of rising inflation in the U.S. if current tariff levels remain unchanged [3][4] Group 2 - Continued conflict in the Middle East could lead to a spike in global energy prices, exacerbating inflation in the U.S. [6] - Analysts warn that a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could result in oil prices soaring to $100 or $120 per barrel, impacting the U.S. economy [6] - Historical precedents show that oil price shocks can lead to economic stagnation in the U.S., as seen during the 1970s oil embargo and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict [6][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a high - level oscillation in the medium - term and a step - up movement in the long - term. The price trend of gold serves as an anchor for the price of silver. [1][5] - For both gold and silver, the recommended strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is advised to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, the precious metals market showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold Futures closed down 0.03%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver Futures closed up 0.62%. [1] - **Core Logic**: In the short term, there are still risks of repeated Trump - era trade wars, economic recession, and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: A phone call between Chinese and US leaders is expected to focus on rare earths and export controls in Sino - US trade talks. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The New York Fed's consumer expectations survey shows that in May, US public anxiety about the future inflation path eased. The one - year inflation expectation of respondents was 3.2% (down from 3.6% in April). The US added 139,000 non - farm payrolls in May, higher than the market expectation of 130,000. Employment growth continued to slow under the influence of trade policy uncertainties, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and gold ETFs are presented, showing different changes compared to the previous day and the previous week. For example, the Comex gold main contract closed at $3346.70 per ounce, up $15.70 (0.47%) from the previous day and down $59.70 (-1.75%) from the previous week. [2] Silver - **Influencing Factors**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has increased slightly. [5] - **Data Summary**: Similar to gold, data on international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and silver ETFs are provided. For instance, the Comex silver main contract closed at $36.91 per ounce, up $0.77 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $1.98 (5.65%) from the previous week. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) are all 4.50%, 4.50%, and 4.40% respectively, with a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6723.632 billion, down $514 million (-0.00%) from the previous day. [8] - **Other Economic Indicators**: Include M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation indicators (CPI, PCE), economic growth indicators (GDP), unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and central bank gold reserves. For example, the CPI (year - on - year) is 2.30%, down 0.10 percentage points; the GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.90 percentage points. [9][10][12] - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at various Fed meetings from June 2025 to December 2026 is presented. For example, at the June 18, 2025 meeting, the probability of the federal funds rate being in the 425 - 450 range is 99.9%. [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long - term. The core logic includes the recurrence of Trump's trade war, the remaining risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes, the increasing risk of stagflation in the US economy, and the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.23%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 0.01%. [1] - **Core Logic**: Short - term risks include the recurrence of Trump's trade war, economic recession, and geopolitical changes. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven**: Trump's latest metal tariffs have come into effect, and EU and US representatives reported rapid progress in trade dialogues. [1] - **Monetary**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that tariffs increase price pressure and US economic activity declines. The US labor market slows down, and the number of layoffs reaches the largest increase in nine months. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 drops to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuate weakly. [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [5] - **Capital and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. The visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently. [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are 67241.46 billion US dollars. [8] - **Economic Indicators**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.55%, the US dollar index is 98.82, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.57. [8] - **Inflation Data**: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.30%, core CPI (year - on - year) is 2.80%, and the PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.15%. [9][10] - **Other Data**: Include data on the US labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys, as well as central bank gold reserves, gold/foreign exchange reserves, and various risk and commodity - related indices. [10][11][12] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The report provides the probability distribution of different federal funds target rate ranges in each meeting from June 2025 to December 2026 according to the CME FedWatch tool. [13]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年05月29日16时48分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位回调，沪金主力收跌0.81%，沪银主力收平。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战反复，经济衰退地缘异动风险仍存； 美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，美国贸易法庭作出阻止特朗普全球关税的裁定，避险情绪 降温。美国彻底告别顶级AAA信评俱乐部，20年期新债遇冷。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储会议纪 要显示，美联储承认通胀和失业率恐同时攀升，将面临艰难取舍。美国企业设备支出创六个月最大降幅，关税不确定性挥之不去。 目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率承压偏弱；④商品属性方面， CRB商品指数震荡反弹，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中期偏弱震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk of Trump's trade war persists, and the risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest are rising. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [1]. - The US has been downgraded by Moody's, and the auction of new 20 - year US bonds was cold, showing investors' concerns about the fiscal outlook. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are rising [1]. - Multiple Fed officials expect tariffs to push up prices. Despite the temporary cooling of the US - China trade war, fiscal uncertainty makes the US economic outlook still weak. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index is oscillating downward, and US bond yields are strong at a high level [1]. - The CRB commodity index is oscillating and rebounding, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term, oscillating at a high level in the medium - term, and rising in a step - like manner in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals continued to rebound. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.22%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.06%. International gold prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic gold prices such as Shanghai gold and gold T + D all showed an upward trend compared with the previous day and the previous week [1][2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. Silver - **Market Performance**: The price trend of silver is anchored to that of gold. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions were reduced, and iShare silver ETF added positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly. International and domestic silver prices also showed an upward trend compared with the previous day and the previous week [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate ceiling, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25. M2 increased by 0.24 year - on - year. The 10 - year US real bond yield, US bond spreads (3 - month - 10 - year, 2 - year - 10 - year), and various interest rate spreads showed different degrees of change. The US dollar index decreased by 0.42 compared with the previous day and 1.41 compared with the previous week [7][9]. - **Inflation**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index all showed different degrees of change year - on - year and month - on - month. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations of the University of Michigan also changed [9]. - **Economic Growth**: GDP showed a decline both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate remained unchanged, and non - farm payrolls decreased by 0.08 [9]. - **Labor Market**: ADP employment decreased by 8.5, and the number of initial jobless claims remained unchanged. The number of job vacancies decreased by 31.6, and the number of Challenger corporate layoffs decreased by 16.98 [9]. - **Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index decreased by 6, existing home sales decreased by 25, new home sales increased by 10, and new home starts increased by 12.4 [9]. - **Consumption**: Retail sales increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Personal consumption expenditure increased month - on - month but decreased slightly year - on - year. The personal savings rate decreased by 0.2 [9]. - **Industry**: The industrial production index increased year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Capacity utilization decreased by 0.11 [9]. - **Trade**: Exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, imports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The trade deficit decreased by 1.73 [9]. - **Economic Surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index decreased by 0.3, the ISM service PMI index increased by 0.8, the Markit manufacturing PMI index increased by 0.9, and the Markit service PMI index decreased by 2.9 [9]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves increased by 4.98 tons, while the US and the world's remained unchanged [9][11]. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The US dollar's share increased by 0.51, the euro's share decreased by 0.2, and the RMB's share remained basically unchanged [11]. - **Gold/ Foreign Exchange Reserves**: Globally, China, and the US all showed an increase in the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves [11]. - **Safe - Haven Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index increased by 21.94, and the VIX index decreased by 0.18 compared with the previous day but increased by 2.86 compared with the previous week [11]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index increased by 0.39 compared with the previous day and 2.71 compared with the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate decreased slightly [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from June 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing a trend of gradual change in the expected interest rate range [12].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年05月15日16时44分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属大幅回落，沪金主力收跌3.20%，沪银主力收跌2.34%。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战风险阶段兑现，贸易协议分批 达成；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，特朗普对等关税兑现，美国和中国宣布达成降低关 税的临时协议，避险情绪降温。特朗普会见叙利亚总统，敦促与以色列建立关系，地缘异动短期缓和。③货币属性方面，美国4月 消费者物价温和上涨，创四年来最小年涨幅。美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，预计关税将导致经济放缓，通胀前景不明朗。目前市场预 期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数反弹遇阻，美债收益率震荡上行；④商品属性方面， CRB商品指数震荡反弹，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金强银弱，中期偏弱震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold industry, copper industry, aluminum industry, tin industry, and antimony industry [10][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing due to tariffs, while gold prices remain strongly supported [4]. - It notes that the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates four times in 2025, totaling a reduction of 100 basis points [4]. - The report emphasizes that while copper and aluminum prices may experience fluctuations, the overall demand is improving, leading to a positive outlook for these metals [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) experienced a decline of 6.5% over the past month, while the CSI 300 index fell by 3.6% [1]. Economic Data - In March, US manufacturing output increased by 0.3%, retail sales rose by 1.4%, and industrial production decreased by 0.3% [3][4]. - China's March imports decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, while exports increased by 12.4% [5][27]. Gold Market - The report indicates that gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend due to the ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10]. Copper and Aluminum Market - Copper prices are expected to remain stable with short-term demand improving, despite tariff impacts yet to fully transmit to upstream materials [7]. - Aluminum prices are projected to be strong due to high operational rates in the processing sector [8]. Tin and Antimony Market - Tin prices are expected to trend higher due to supply disruptions, while antimony prices are anticipated to rise due to tight raw material availability [10][11]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, including Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [11].

Group 1: General Market Overview - A - share trading volume is shrinking, and market sentiment is cooling. The market may continue to avoid risks related to Trump's tariff policies and a marginal slowdown in the economic fundamentals in early April. The bond market shows tight liquidity, with both short - and long - term bond yields rising [2][3] - The US economic data is mixed, with manufacturing PMI slightly weakening and the employment market relatively stable. The US dollar index is stable, and the macro - impact is limited [18] - The "equivalent tariff" policy in the US is about to be announced, and countries such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU have expressed their stances, with some warning of counter - measures [2] Group 2: Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices fell slightly on Tuesday. Gold and silver may face correction risks after the tariff policy is implemented due to profit - taking and a possible shift in trading logic [4][5] Group 3: Copper - US manufacturing PMI has returned to the contraction range, and the risk of stagflation is increasing. Overseas investment banks expect the benchmark tariff rate to reach 10% - 15%. The cancellation of the arbitration of the Panama copper mine may lead to its possible复产 this year, and domestic copper production is rising. Copper prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [6][7] Group 4: Aluminum - Macroeconomic factors dominate, and aluminum prices are under pressure. Although the fundamentals show some support on the supply side, the concerns about demand due to the US manufacturing PMI contraction and tariff uncertainty lead to a decline in market risk sentiment, and aluminum prices are oscillating [8][9] Group 5: Alumina - Alumina has sufficient supply, weak consumption elasticity, and an oversupply situation. The cost support may weaken, and it is expected to continue its weak operation [10] Group 6: Zinc - The market is focused on the tariff details. Zinc prices are under pressure due to the expected significant increase in refined zinc supply in April. However, the low - level restocking by downstream enterprises and low inventory provide some weak support, and zinc prices are expected to operate weakly [11] Group 7: Lead - The production of electrolytic lead and recycled lead in March exceeded expectations, and it is expected to increase slightly in April. The downstream battery market is in the off - season, and lead prices are expected to run weakly, with attention paid to the performance near the 40 - day moving average [12] Group 8: Tin - Due to the postponement of the tin mine复产 meeting in Myanmar and the uncertain复产 time of the Congo - Kinshasa mine, tin prices have reached new highs this year. However, the consumption growth rate cannot match the price increase, and there is a large supply - demand contradiction. Caution is needed when chasing the price [13][14] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon is slowly recovering, and the high inventory drags down the spot market. The demand shows a weak recovery, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [15] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - The supply of domestic lithium salts is expected to have limited growth, and the demand from cathode manufacturers is gradually expanding. However, due to the high inventory pressure, the price is oscillating at a low level [16] Group 11: Nickel - The Indonesian tax reform policy has been delayed, and potential risks remain. Although steel mills' stainless - steel production in April is still at a high level, attention should be paid to the production compliance rate under high - inventory pressure. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [18] Group 12: Crude Oil - Attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations. In the medium - to - long term, there is a bearish expectation due to OPEC + production increases, and oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [19] Group 13: Steel Products - Steel futures rebounded on Tuesday, and spot trading volume increased. However, the demand growth rate is expected to slow down in April, and steel prices are expected to oscillate [20] Group 14: Iron Ore - Port inventory has increased, and overseas shipments and arrivals have also increased. The growth rate of molten iron production has slowed down, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [21][22] Group 15: Bean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans rose due to policy support, but domestic bean and rapeseed meal prices fell. With a large amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving, the spot price is under pressure. Both are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the upcoming tariff policy [23][24] Group 16: Palm Oil - US biodiesel policy may increase production, boosting the price of US soybean oil and domestic palm oil. Palm oil is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the continuation of the policy's impact [25] Group 17: Metal Trading Data - Presented the closing data of major metal futures contracts on Tuesday, including prices, changes, trading volumes, and open interests [26] Group 18: Industrial Data - Provided the daily changes in industrial data of various metals from April 1 to March 31, such as warehouse receipts, inventory, spot prices, and price spreads [27][30][32]