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向“改革”要红利——2026年宏观形势展望(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-11-16 16:03
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of "reform" as a source of dividends for the economy, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to accelerate reform processes and enhance domestic demand policies [3][67][83] - The domestic economic environment has undergone three significant changes: the retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new supply-side reform framework [2][8][21] - The article discusses the "non-typical recovery" of the economy, driven by improved consumer confidence and the effects of ongoing domestic demand policies, which are expected to lead to a recovery in investment growth and corporate profitability [4][5][55] Group 2 - The article highlights the need for a clear industrial adjustment strategy, focusing on advanced manufacturing as a backbone while upgrading traditional sectors and accelerating the opening of the service industry [67][74] - It points out that the structural changes in exports are evident, with a shift towards high value-added products and a decrease in low value-added goods, indicating a robust export resilience [21][22] - The article stresses the importance of addressing the "internal competition" within industries, which has led to a decline in profit margins and necessitates policies aimed at enhancing corporate profitability and operational vitality [15][41][55]
向“改革”要红利——2026年宏观形势展望(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源研究· 2025-11-16 12:00
Group 1 - The article highlights three significant changes in the domestic economic environment: the rapid retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new phase of "supply-side reform" framework [2][8][21] - The "scar effect" is reflected in the improvement of consumer behavior and the rapid decline in accounts receivable growth among enterprises, indicating a recovery in economic confidence [15][16] - The article emphasizes the need for a rational understanding of the "macro-micro temperature difference," which has become a norm since 2022, affecting the economic transformation process in China [8][37] Group 2 - The year 2026 is positioned as a critical year for comprehensive reform and development, with an emphasis on accelerating reform processes to seize significant opportunities [3][67] - The article suggests that economic growth will require maintaining a basic growth rate and emphasizes the importance of advanced manufacturing and service industry development [3][74] - Key areas for investment opportunities include the construction of a unified market, reforms related to social welfare, and accelerating green transformation [3][83][84] Group 3 - The article predicts a non-typical economic recovery driven by internal demand policies, which will help improve consumer confidence and investment growth [4][5] - External demand remains resilient, with a shift in export structure towards high-value-added products, indicating a strong competitive advantage [5][21] - The overall economic recovery is expected to follow a "front low and back high" rhythm, supported by the retreat of the "scar effect" and ongoing internal demand policies [5][55]
向“改革”要红利——2026年宏观形势展望(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-11-16 11:04
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to "seek dividends from reform" as a significant opportunity for investment, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan [7][67] - The domestic economic environment has undergone three significant changes: the retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new supply-side reform framework [2][8] - The "scar effect" is showing signs of retreat, evidenced by improvements in consumer behavior and a decrease in accounts receivable growth among enterprises [15][21] Group 2 - The economic recovery is characterized as "atypical," with a transition from "confidence building" to recovery, driven by deepening domestic demand policies and a reduction in the "crowding out effect" of debt [4][5] - Export resilience is expected to continue, with a shift in the structure of exports towards high-value-added products, despite a decrease in the share of exports to the US [21][22] - The focus on advanced manufacturing as a backbone and the upgrading of traditional sectors are highlighted as key strategies for economic adjustment [74][77] Group 3 - The 2026 year is anticipated to be a pivotal year for comprehensive reform and development, with significant opportunities arising from accelerated reform processes [3][67] - The emphasis on "self-reliance" and "extraordinary measures to seize high ground" in technology modernization is crucial for supporting China's modernization efforts [77][83] - Key areas for reform include the construction of a unified national market, social security system reforms, and financial and tax reforms, all aimed at enhancing economic resilience and sustainability [83][84]
2026年宏观形势展望:向“改革”要红利
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-16 09:46
Group 1: Economic Changes and Trends - In 2025, the domestic economy experienced three significant changes: the retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new "supply-side reform" framework[2] - The "scar effect" has shown signs of retreat, with improvements in consumer traffic and prices of certain goods, as well as a rapid decline in accounts receivable growth for enterprises[2][25] - The export structure has been optimized, with a decrease of approximately 3.2 percentage points in exports to the U.S. to 11.4% and an increase in exports to Europe by about 0.7 percentage points to 17.2%[31] Group 2: Policy Recommendations and Economic Recovery - The report emphasizes the need for "anti-involution" measures and debt clearance to restore corporate profitability and operational vitality[3][57] - The focus on developing the service sector is crucial for improving overall employment absorption capacity in society[3][57] - The year 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for comprehensive reform and development, with an emphasis on accelerating reform processes and expanding domestic demand policies[4] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - The economy is predicted to undergo a non-typical recovery, transitioning from "confidence building" to a "non-typical" recovery phase, with expectations of improved corporate profitability[5] - Domestic demand policies are expected to support consumption demand, while increased debt clearance efforts will alleviate the "crowding out effect" on investment funds[5] - The inflation trend is becoming increasingly important, with PPI showing an upward trend and CPI expected to improve, contributing to the recovery of corporate profitability[5]
财政部:发挥积极财政政策作用 推动中国式现代化开创新局面
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-11-15 03:03
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in driving China's modernization and economic development, as outlined in the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [1]. Group 1: Achievements of Fiscal Policy - Since the new era, China's fiscal policy has been adjusted based on changing circumstances, leading to significant achievements, including a 24% increase in general public budget expenditure during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, totaling over 136 trillion yuan [2]. - More than 70% of national fiscal expenditure is directed towards people's livelihoods, with nearly 10 trillion yuan allocated for social welfare over five years [2]. Group 2: Key Strategies for Fiscal Policy - Emphasis on coordinating counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to address structural and deep-seated economic issues while enhancing long-term development potential [3]. - Focus on both supply-side and demand-side management, utilizing tax policies and government procurement to support the modern industrial system and stimulate consumption [3]. - Innovation in fiscal tools, such as the use of ultra-long special government bonds and fiscal subsidies, to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policy [3]. - Strengthening policy coordination to ensure alignment with national development plans and enhance the overall effectiveness of fiscal measures [3]. Group 3: Goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" Period - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is critical for achieving socialist modernization, requiring effective responses to complex domestic and international challenges [4]. - Fiscal policies will focus on providing robust support for key strategic goals, ensuring adequate funding and resource allocation to high-quality development areas [5]. Group 4: Expanding Domestic Demand - The construction of a strong domestic market is a priority, with fiscal measures aimed at boosting consumption and effective investment [6]. - Strategies include enhancing consumer spending through subsidies and increasing long-term consumption capacity by improving income levels [6]. - Effective investment will be directed towards strategic projects that enhance overall productivity, with an emphasis on preventing inefficient investments [6]. Group 5: Fiscal Reform and Management - The need for a high-level socialist market economy requires a balance between market freedom and effective fiscal regulation [8]. - Focus on optimizing resource allocation and improving fiscal management through zero-based budgeting and enhancing the efficiency of fund usage [9]. - Emphasis on balancing efficiency and equity in tax policies to promote high-quality development and social fairness [9].
发挥积极财政政策作用 推动中国式现代化开创新局面(权威访谈·学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神) ——访财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-11-14 22:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of active fiscal policy as a foundation for national governance and economic development, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][4] - The Ministry of Finance has recognized the effectiveness of active fiscal policies in recent years, highlighting a 24% increase in general public budget expenditure, which is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] - Over 70% of national fiscal expenditure is directed towards people's livelihoods, with nearly 10 trillion yuan allocated for social welfare over the past five years [2][4] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to address structural and deep-seated economic issues, thereby boosting long-term development potential [3][4] - The focus will be on both supply-side and demand-side management, utilizing tax policies and government procurement to support the modern industrial system and stimulate consumption [3][6] - The Ministry aims to innovate fiscal tools, such as long-term special government bonds and fiscal subsidies, to improve the effectiveness of fiscal policies [3][4] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will prioritize expanding domestic demand, with strategies to boost consumption and effective investment, while also promoting a unified national market [6][7] - The Ministry of Finance will work on optimizing resource allocation and enhancing fiscal management, including zero-based budgeting reforms to improve fund utilization [9] - There will be a focus on balancing efficiency and equity in tax policies, as well as strengthening the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [9]
发挥积极财政政策作用 推动中国式现代化开创新局面(权威访谈·学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-11-14 22:03
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in China's economic development, particularly during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" periods, highlighting the need for innovative reforms and effective macroeconomic management to support modernization and address complex domestic and international challenges [1][4]. Group 1: Achievements of Fiscal Policy - Since the beginning of the new era, China's fiscal policy has been adjusted in response to changing circumstances, leading to significant achievements in economic recovery and modernization efforts [2]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," total public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, a 24% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan," with over 70% of fiscal spending directed towards people's livelihoods [2][4]. - The ability to respond to risks and challenges has strengthened, providing a more solid foundation for safe development [2]. Group 2: Key Strategies for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The fiscal policy will focus on enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to address structural and deep-seated economic issues while promoting long-term development potential [3][4]. - Emphasis will be placed on the synergy between supply-side and demand-side management, utilizing tax policies and government procurement to support a modern industrial system and stimulate consumption [3][5]. - The government will innovate fiscal tools, such as ultra-long special bonds and fiscal subsidies, to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies and improve macroeconomic management [3][8]. Group 3: Expanding Domestic Demand - The construction of a strong domestic market is identified as a key task, with fiscal measures aimed at boosting consumption and effective investment [6][7]. - Strategies include enhancing consumer spending through subsidies and tax adjustments, as well as increasing effective investment in strategic projects to improve overall productivity [6][7]. Group 4: Fiscal Reform and Management - The focus will be on creating a high-level socialist market economy by ensuring that fiscal macro-control supports effective market mechanisms while allowing micro-entities to thrive [8][9]. - The government aims to optimize resource allocation, enhance fiscal management, and improve the efficiency of public spending through reforms such as zero-based budgeting [9]. - There will be a concerted effort to balance efficiency and equity in tax policies, ensuring a reasonable macro tax burden while promoting social fairness and market unity [9].
财政部:有力有效实施积极财政政策
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-14 20:10
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in driving high-quality development and achieving Chinese-style modernization, as outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan proposed by the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Implementation - The fiscal policy has maintained a proactive stance since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with adjustments made according to changing circumstances, including an increase in the deficit ratio from 2.7% to 3.8%, and further to 4% this year [1][2]. - New local government special bond quotas amounting to 19.4 trillion yuan have been arranged, alongside over 1 trillion yuan in new tax reductions and deferred payments, expanding fiscal policy space [1][2]. Achievements During the 14th Five-Year Plan - The total public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, a 24% increase compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan, with over 70% of fiscal spending directed towards people's livelihoods, totaling nearly 10 trillion yuan in social welfare investments [2][3]. - The ability to respond to risks and challenges has strengthened, providing a more solid foundation for safe development [2]. Strategic Focus for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan is seen as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization, with a focus on adapting to complex domestic and international changes, including rising unilateralism and protectionism [3][4]. - The fiscal department aims to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies and macroeconomic regulation to better support high-quality development [3][4]. Key Areas of Fiscal Policy Action - The fiscal policy will focus on three main areas to support domestic market construction: boosting consumption, expanding effective investment, and promoting a unified market [5][6]. - Specific measures include using fiscal subsidies and tax adjustments to enhance consumer spending, optimizing government investment towards strategic projects, and improving the fiscal system to eliminate market fragmentation [5][6]. Fiscal Reform and Management - The establishment of a high-level socialist market economy requires a balance between market freedom and effective regulation, with fiscal funds directed towards public goods and areas with high social returns [6]. - The focus will be on optimizing resource allocation, enhancing tax systems, and ensuring a sustainable fiscal environment while promoting both development and safety [6].
财政部:坚持扩大内需 支持建设强大国内市场
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-11-14 11:59
Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of building a strong domestic market as a key to leveraging China's economic advantages and a priority task during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending - The government aims to boost consumption by releasing current consumption potential through fiscal subsidies and loan interest discounts, expanding goods and services consumption, and cultivating new consumption growth points [1] - Long-term consumption capacity will be enhanced by increasing residents' income through tax, social security, and transfer payments, effectively combining livelihood improvement with consumption promotion [1] Group 2: Effective Investment - The government plans to optimize the direction of government investment by utilizing special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, focusing on foundational, long-term, and structural projects to improve overall productivity [1] - There is an emphasis on preventing ineffective investments and encouraging private capital participation in major projects, stimulating social investment through government investment [1] Group 3: Unified Market Construction - The Ministry of Finance will improve the fiscal and tax system to facilitate market unification, standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation [1] - The goal is to create a fair market environment that enhances the efficiency of resource allocation [1]
财政部部长蓝佛安:把准形势任务 有力有效实施积极的财政政策
Xin Hua She· 2025-11-14 11:59
新华社北京11月14日电 题:发挥积极财政政策作用为奋力开创中国式现代化建设新局面提供坚强财政 保障——访财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安 新华社记者申铖 财政事关治国安邦、强国富民,在推动高质量发展和中国式现代化建设中承担重要职责。党的二十届四 中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》,对发挥积极财 政政策作用提出明确要求。 "十五五"时期如何发挥积极财政政策作用?围绕建设强大国内市场、加快构建高水平社会主义市场经济 体制方面,财政将如何发力?新华社记者采访了财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安。 因时因势施策,不断深化对财政宏观调控的规律性认识 问:科学的宏观调控、有效的政府治理是发挥社会主义市场经济体制优势的内在要求。"十四五"以来, 我国在加强财政宏观调控、实施财政政策方面,进展和成效如何? 党的二十届四中全会擘画了中国未来五年的发展蓝图。我们要以改革的思维、创新的精神,完整准确全 面贯彻全会部署,统筹生财、聚财、用财之道,有力有效实施积极的财政政策,为以中国式现代化全面 推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业提供坚强财政保障。 把准形势任务,有力有效实施积极的财政政策 问:迈向"十五五",党 ...