Group 1 - Morgan Asset Management's Chief Market Strategist for Asia Pacific, Xu Changtai, predicts that with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and the expectation of a depreciating US dollar, funds may flow into emerging markets, benefiting the Hong Kong A-share market [1] - Xu estimates that the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) will continue to have room for decline, potentially more than expected, which will positively impact the Hong Kong residential property market, with a better environment anticipated in 2026 compared to this year [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 0.25% in both October and December of this year, with further cuts of 2-3 times in 2026, bringing the long-term federal funds rate down to a neutral level of 3% [1] Group 2 - Historical data suggests that during previous rate-cutting cycles, such as in 2019, US stock performance was strong, leading to a preference for technology-related sectors, while retail and industrial stocks are expected to be more volatile [2] - The US dollar is currently stable, but with the US facing fiscal and trade deficits and entering a rate-cutting cycle, alongside Europe nearing the end of its rate cuts and Japan potentially raising rates, a depreciation of the dollar is anticipated, estimated at 5-7% over the next 12-18 months [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pricing dynamics in the commodity market, driven by domestic supply policies for lithium and silicon, and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve affecting precious metals and copper [4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The market is currently pricing in a potential 75 basis points (bp) cut by the Federal Reserve within the year, with expectations for consecutive cuts in the upcoming FOMC meetings [6]. - Factors contributing to the optimistic outlook for rate cuts include a shift in the Federal Reserve's decision-making approach, the weakening U.S. labor market, and political pressures from the Trump administration [7][8]. - The long-term interest rate target may be adjusted downwards, providing more room for monetary policy adjustments, with current expectations for long-term rates around 2.8%-2.9% [8]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Landscape - The article highlights that inflation may ease next year, influenced by the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve and the impact of tariffs on core commodity inflation [11][13]. - The Zillow rent index shows a significant decline, which may indicate a lagging effect on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and overall inflation trends [11]. - Despite the weakening labor market, there remains confidence in a soft landing for the U.S. economy, with no immediate signs of a severe downturn [15][16]. Group 3: Commodity Market Outlook - Precious metals are expected to have upward elasticity during the rate-cutting cycle, while copper and other base metals may follow suit if the U.S. economy shows signs of improvement [5][16]. - The article suggests that the valuation of commodities will depend on the Federal Reserve's terminal rate outlook and the anticipated adjustments in economic growth rates [16][17]. - There is a notable preference for gold in overseas markets, with domestic silver showing good upward potential, influenced by macroeconomic drivers [17].

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline, with Dogecoin down 5.24%, Ripple down 3.34%, Ethereum down 1.41%, and Bitcoin down 0.36% as of September 14 [1] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 120,000 traders in the virtual currency market faced liquidation [2] - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a monetary policy meeting from September 16 to 17, with a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 8% probability of a 50 basis point cut [2] Group 2 - Following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and initial jobless claims data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4%, the dollar index declined, and U.S. stocks reached new highs [3] - The rise in initial jobless claims to a nearly four-year high has shifted the Federal Reserve's focus towards employment, reinforcing expectations for rate cuts [3] - Despite the consensus on three rate cuts by the end of the year, there are concerns about the potential for an unexpected rebound in inflation due to supply-side factors, which could limit the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy [3][4] Group 3 - The future performance of the U.S. financial markets post-rate cut will largely depend on the economic outlook; a soft landing could support stock market gains, while a rapid deterioration in the economy could lead to significant market adjustments [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates three times by the end of the year, driven by rising unemployment claims and stable inflation data [2][10][11] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [2][4] - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [2][8] Group 2 - Inflation data shows that while overall inflation is stable, certain categories like new and used cars and housing prices exhibit stickiness, suggesting limited room for aggressive rate cuts [4][5] - The market is concerned about the potential for a "stagflation-like" scenario if inflation rises unexpectedly alongside a weakening economy [11][12] - The response in financial markets indicates a strong expectation for rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4% and the dollar index declining [11][12]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in September is expected to result in interest rate cuts, with the market pricing in three rate cuts by the end of the year [1][9][11] - The recent increase in initial jobless claims to 263,000, the highest since October 2021, has shifted the Fed's focus towards employment, reinforcing the expectation of rate cuts [1][6] - Despite stable inflation data, the Fed's monetary policy is likely to lean towards supporting employment due to the deteriorating job market [10][11] Group 2: Inflation Trends - The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with market expectations [1][3] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, indicating controlled inflation despite some upward pressures from tariffs [3][4] - Certain categories, such as new and used cars and housing, exhibit price stickiness, suggesting that while inflation is manageable, there are still risks of upward pressure in the medium to long term [4][6] Group 3: Employment Market Dynamics - The U.S. job market is showing signs of cooling, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [7][10] - The combination of rising inflation and a weakening job market could lead to two scenarios: a soft landing with gradual rate cuts or a hard landing resulting in recession [6][7] - The potential for a "stagflation-like" scenario exists if inflation rises unexpectedly while the economy slows, limiting the Fed's policy options [10][11]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market's condition has become a focal point for the Federal Reserve and global markets, with recent soft employment data leading to a significant shift in market assessments [1] - The probability of a "soft landing" scenario remains the most likely outcome in the medium term, despite an increase in the likelihood of a "hard landing" to 20% [1] - The U.S. economy is described as being in a "muddling through" state, with growth not strong but still positive, and the likelihood of stabilization outweighing continued downturns [1] Group 2 - In Europe, the economic environment is improving as tariff uncertainties decrease, and the European Central Bank does not anticipate further rate cuts [2] - The outlook for U.K. bonds is neutral, with the Bank of England's recent hawkish stance and positive growth prospects for the U.K. economy suggesting limited strong performance for U.K. government bonds in the short term [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Schroders has adjusted the probability of a "soft landing" scenario for the U.S. economy to 10% and increased the likelihood of a "hard landing" to 20% following weaker employment data in July and downward revisions of May and June data [1] - Despite the changing risk outlook, Schroders maintains that a benign economic "soft landing" is still the most likely outcome in the medium term [1] - The U.S. economy is described as being in a "muddling through" state, with growth not strong but still positive, and the likelihood of stabilization being greater than continued decline [1] Group 2 - Weaker labor market data, including slowing job growth and a narrowing range of new positions, indicates increased economic vulnerability, which may affect the Federal Reserve's willingness to accelerate monetary policy easing [2] - There is currently no sufficient reason for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, but there is now more room for faster rate reductions than previously expected [2] - In Europe, the economic environment is improving as tariff uncertainties decrease, and the European Central Bank has signaled no further rate cuts, providing a positive outlook for the European economy [2]

Group 1 - The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant miss, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the market expectation of 104,000 to 110,000, and prior values were substantially revised down [1][8] - The revisions for May and June were drastic, with May's initial value of 144,000 revised down to 19,000 (a reduction of 125,000) and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 (a reduction of 133,000), totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June combined, marking the largest adjustment since the pandemic [3][12] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling faster than anticipated, as indicated by the weak non-farm data [8][11] Group 2 - Following the release of the non-farm data, the dollar index fell sharply, with a daily drop of 1%, falling below the 99 mark to around 98.9, contrary to expectations of a stronger dollar [7][8] - The market's reaction indicates a shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, with the probability of rate cuts rising significantly from 40% to 73% for September, and the annual expectation for rate cuts increasing from 1.5 to 2.5 times [8][12] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed support for rate cuts under manageable inflation conditions, suggesting that delaying action could worsen the labor market situation [8][12] Group 3 - The employment landscape is showing a stark contrast between sectors, with healthcare and social assistance adding 55,000 jobs and educational services increasing by 18,000, indicating stable demand in the service sector [8][12] - Conversely, manufacturing jobs have seen negative growth for three consecutive months, and there have been reductions in retail and temporary positions, reflecting weakness in cyclical industries [8][12] - Federal government employment decreased by 12,000, highlighting ongoing layoffs in government efficiency departments [8][12]

Core Viewpoint - The "US Regime Indicator" compiled by Bank of America has shown the largest jump in over a year, signaling a potential shift in the US business cycle from "downturn" to "recovery" [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "Not-so-Nifty 450" stocks, which exclude the top 50 stocks in the S&P 500, are expected to outperform the "Nifty 50" during the recovery phase, with historical data indicating that the former's P/E expansion is twice that of the latter [1][2][3]. - Historical data shows that during previous recovery periods, the "Nifty 50" underperformed the "Not-so-Nifty 450" by an average of 3.3 percentage points per year, with only 36% of recovery periods seeing the "Nifty 50" outperform [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The "Magnificent Seven," comprising major tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, have significantly driven the S&P 500 index to new highs, but their high valuations are causing caution among investors [4][5][8]. - The disparity in performance between large-cap and small-cap tech stocks is at a historical high, with small-cap tech stocks lagging significantly behind their large-cap counterparts [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The improvement in the "US Regime Indicator" is broad-based, with six out of eight original inputs showing positive changes, including EPS revisions and GDP forecasts [6][8]. - Despite the positive signals, leading economic indicators and the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index have shown weakness, indicating potential volatility in the recovery [6][7]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - There is a structural opportunity for small-cap stocks, particularly those with high-quality factors and low-risk profiles, as the market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8]. - A list of stocks from the "Not-so-Nifty 450" with low forward P/E ratios and high beta values has been identified as potential recovery plays, including companies like United Airlines and Devon Energy [9].

Macro News - The meeting between US and Russian leaders did not yield substantial progress, but Trump described the talks as "very smooth" and indicated that further sanctions on Russia would not be implemented for now [1] - US inflation data exceeded expectations, with July PPI rising 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, marking a five-month high, which dampened rate cut expectations [1] - July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, while core CPI was at 3.1%, indicating no acceleration in inflation [1] Market Sentiment - Concerns over Swiss tariffs on gold were alleviated after Trump stated that gold would not be taxed [2] - The job market showed signs of weakness, leading to increased sensitivity to data revisions, which supported gold and silver prices [2] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting maintained rates, but internal divisions were noted, influenced by Trump's appointments [2] Institutional Views - Wall Street anticipates a hawkish tone from Powell's speech at the global central bank meeting, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 100% to around 80% [2] - Gold prices are expected to remain in a high volatility range, with potential for a downward test of support levels [2] - The macro environment is generally favorable for silver prices, with a high probability of a September rate cut still in play [2]