潜在的压力则来自美国方面。投资者正等待稍后公布的美国ISM制造业数据，以评估美国经济能否实现"软 着陆"。但更主要的关注点已转向货币政策领域。市场正消化有关美联储未来领导层变动的预期。特朗普 提名凯文·沃什为新任美联储主席的消息，促使交易员重新评估利率路径。沃什过往政策言论显示，他可能 支持更为"精简"的美联储资产负债表，并对降息持相对审慎态度。这种政策倾向与市场此前押注的快速转 向宽松有所出入，为美元提供了一层保护。 上周五公布的生产者价格指数为美元增添了另一份支撑。美国12月PPI同比上涨3.0%，环比上涨0.5%，两 项数据均显著高于市场预测。这份报告削弱了通胀正快速回落的乐观预期，向市场提示粘性通胀的风险依 然存在。数据公布后，市场对美联储首次降息时点的预期有所推迟。利率路径的修正对美元构成直接利 好，限制了纽元等风险货币的上行空间。 当前汇价呈现的平静是一种表象。其背后是两种逻辑的角力：一边是新西兰主要贸易伙伴的经济韧性所带 来的贸易链支撑，另一边是美国经济数据强劲与货币政策可能维持相对紧缩所引发的资本流动吸引力。这 种格局使得汇率对任何一方的数据意外都极为敏感。中国的PMI数据暂时为纽元守住阵地提 ...

中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强1月19日下午主持召开专家、企业家和教科文卫体等领域代表座 谈会，听取对《政府工作报告》和《"十五五"规划纲要（草案）》两个征求意见稿的意见建议。2025 年，中国国内生产总值（GDP）1401879亿元，首次跃上140万亿元新台阶，按不变价格计算，比上年增 长5.0%。2025年社会消费品零售总额突破50万亿元，超大规模市场优势持续显现。 近期海外焦点落在美国对格陵兰权益争夺的升级上，虽然TACO再现，但从去年开始的一系列事件，已 在一定程度上传导到全球货币体系和信用体系上，受益的品种已经演绎多时，而今年最大的黑天鹅也可 能来源于此。 经济数据层面，近期美国商务部和劳工统计局发布多个宏观经济数据。美国2025年第三季度核心PCE指 数年化终值环比升2.9%，预期升2.9%，初值升2.9%；PCE物价指数年化终值环比升2.8%，预期升 3.5%，初值升2.8%；就业方面，美国上周初请失业金人数为20万人，预期21万人，前值自19.8万人修正 至19.9万人。宏观方面，美国2025年第三季度实际GDP年化季率终值升4.4%，预期升4.3%，初值升 4.3%。美国经济软着陆预期仍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, domestic commodities reached a peak and then declined, with market sentiment significantly cooling down. Industrial products followed a similar trend, while agricultural products fluctuated downward. The main reasons include the decline of precious metals from their high levels, the mixed US data with the Fed's rate - cut rhythm unchanged, and the rapid changes in geopolitical situations such as in Iran leading to the rise - and - fall of crude oil prices [3]. - Although US inflation continues to slow down, the Fed's rate - cut rhythm has not accelerated further, which has limited impact on boosting market expectations. Domestic policies are starting to take effect, with the coordinated efforts of expanding domestic demand and anti - involution policies expected to improve the long - term low - price situation, but the current weak reality still puts pressure on the rebound of the commodity market. Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Venezuela, Iran, and the Greenland issue are changing rapidly, which may cause disturbances to the prices of energy and metals [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Review**: Domestic commodities in China showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week, with market sentiment cooling down. Industrial products followed the same pattern, and agricultural products declined. The decline of precious metals, mixed US data, and geopolitical changes in Iran were the main influencing factors [3]. - **Overseas**: - In December 2025, the overall CPI in the US increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected. Although inflation is cooling, it is still above the 2% policy target, and the probability of a rate cut in January is extremely low, with June being the mainstream market expectation [3]. - The Fed's latest "Beige Book" shows that the US economic activity is picking up, employment is stable, and wages are growing moderately, strengthening the expectation of a soft landing of the US economy [3]. - US President Trump announced tariffs on countries trading with Iran and eight European countries, which will have an impact on international trade [3]. - **Domestic**: - In December 2025, China's export and import amounts increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus expanded. Fiscal expansion and the high matching of China's advantageous industries with global demand are expected to support export growth [3]. - In December 2025, the stock social financing growth rate decreased slightly, M2 growth rate increased, M1 growth rate decreased, and the "M2 - M1 scissors gap" widened. The financial data showed the characteristics of "abundant in total amount and differentiated in structure" [3]. - The central bank will introduce two policy measures in 2026, which send a signal of coordinated efforts through aggregate and structural policies and reserve space for the use of aggregate tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [3]. - **Commodity Views**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and the commodity market has declined in the short term. The Fed's unchanged rate - cut rhythm, the current weak reality in China, and geopolitical factors are the main reasons [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - US inflation data in December 2025 showed a cooling trend, but it is still above the policy target, and the market has different expectations for the Fed's rate - cut time [7][11]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" reflects the positive situation of the US economy, strengthening the expectation of a soft landing [3]. - US President Trump's tariff announcements on Iran - trading countries and eight European countries will affect international trade and market sentiment [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - In December 2025, China's export and import amounts increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus expanded. China's exports to non - US economies were strong, while exports to the US continued to decline [23]. - The financial data in December 2025 showed the characteristics of "abundant in total amount and differentiated in structure", with the stock social financing growth rate decreasing slightly, M2 growth rate increasing, M1 growth rate decreasing, and the "M2 - M1 scissors gap" widening [26]. - The central bank will introduce relevant policies in 2026 to support economic transformation and development and reserve space for the use of aggregate tools [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - High - frequency data on开工率 in the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率 showed certain trends and fluctuations [33][35]. - Data on agricultural product prices such as vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index, showed different price trends [44].

Group 1 - The latest Beige Book indicates a moderate recovery in the US economy expected to continue into late 2025 and early 2026, with overall growth described as "slight to moderate" [1] - The labor market remains stable, and consumer spending shows no significant signs of weakening, reinforcing the consensus on a robust soft landing for the US economy [1] - Economic activity has been gradually improving across most regions since mid-November, with no clear signs of recession observed [1] Group 2 - Eight out of twelve Federal Reserve districts reported stable employment conditions, with wage growth in a "moderate" range, suggesting a return to long-term equilibrium levels [1] - Price levels are rising at a moderate pace, with some businesses beginning to pass on previously absorbed cost pressures to end prices, indicating that while inflation is trending down, complete relief from price pressures will take time [1] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 have become more cautious, with the anticipated number of cuts reduced from three to two, and the timing of the first cut pushed back to June [2] Group 3 - Federal Reserve officials' recent statements align with the Beige Book's tone, indicating that current interest rates may be close to a neutral zone, with future adjustments dependent on data changes [2] - The political environment poses additional uncertainties for policy stability, as President Trump has indicated no current plans to remove Fed Chair Powell despite ongoing investigations [2] - Overall, the Beige Book reinforces the narrative of a "moderate recovery and a likely soft landing" for the US economy, with resilient employment and consumption, while inflation remains above target, limiting the Fed's motivation to relax policies urgently [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a slight to moderate economic recovery across most regions in the U.S., supporting the narrative of a "soft landing" for the economy, with the labor market showing signs of gradual improvement [1][3]. Economic Growth - The Beige Book reports that economic activity is increasing at a "slight to moderate" pace, with no significant signs of recession, which is crucial for the "soft landing" narrative [3]. - Most regions reported stable non-farm employment levels, with moderate wage growth returning to normal levels [2][3]. Labor Market - Despite some regions noting a slowdown in hiring, overall employment levels remain stable, and wage growth is moderate, indicating a balanced labor market without significant overheating or mass layoffs [3][4]. - The labor market is described as showing signs of slight recovery, with some Federal Reserve officials cautious about further rate cuts due to inflation remaining above the 2% target [4][5]. Inflation and Pricing - Recent CPI data shows a steady decline in inflation, with price growth across most economic regions described as "moderate" rather than significantly rising [2][3]. - Some businesses are beginning to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers, but overall inflation trends remain downward [3][6]. Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with traders now anticipating two rate cuts in 2026, with the first expected in June rather than March [2][5]. - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have adjusted their forecasts for rate cuts to June and September, emphasizing the need for inflation to return to the 2% target before any policy actions [5][6]. Regional Highlights - Boston reports an increase in temporary hiring, with expectations for many positions to become permanent [6]. - New York notes that increased tariffs have led to cost pass-through to customers, affecting pricing strategies [6]. - Philadelphia highlights ongoing consumer budget pressures across various sectors, including housing and healthcare [6]. - Cleveland sees a rebound in demand for manufactured goods, driven by AI data center construction [6]. - Atlanta mentions increased AI adoption to enhance productivity, although significant impacts on employment may take time [6].

Core Viewpoint - Increasingly, traders focused on options are shifting away from expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, betting instead that rates will remain unchanged throughout the year, which could yield positive returns if realized [1][2][3]. Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The December non-farm payroll data showed a modest increase of 50,000 jobs, slightly below economists' expectations of 60,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from a revised 4.6% in November to 4.4%, indicating a recovery in the labor market [3][5]. - The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report indicated that U.S. companies announced 35,553 job cuts in December, the lowest level since July 2024, alongside plans to add approximately 10,500 new positions, exceeding market expectations [5]. - The ADP Research data also suggested a mild expansion in the job market, with an increase of 41,000 jobs in December, following a significant decline in the previous month [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a steady decline but remains above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, reducing the urgency for further rate cuts [3][6]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicated that traders have reduced their expectations for rate cuts in 2026 from three to two, with the first anticipated cut now pushed to June instead of March [2][3]. - The overall sentiment in the market is shifting towards the possibility of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged throughout 2026, as the labor market stabilizes and inflation remains persistent [2][3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Strategies - Recent trading activity in SOFR options reflects a more hawkish sentiment, with significant demand for options hedging against the possibility of delayed rate cuts [10][17]. - The concentration of put options at the 96.375 strike price indicates that traders are positioning themselves for a scenario where rates remain high or do not decline further, suggesting a shift in market expectations towards maintaining current rates [17][20]. - The overall structure of SOFR options indicates that traders are increasingly abandoning expectations of significant rate cuts this year, favoring a more prolonged period of stable rates [20][21].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with all three major indices closing higher, driven by key players in the AI computing industry such as Nvidia, TSMC, and Broadcom [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indices reached new all-time closing highs, with the Dow gaining over 2% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by less than 2% [1] Economic Data and Expectations - The upcoming week is termed a "super heavy week," with the U.S. government set to release crucial economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) [2][3] - Analysts expect a significant rebound in core CPI, with predictions ranging from 0.36% to 0.38% for December, compared to an average of 0.08% in October and November [8] - Retail sales data, referred to as "terrifying data," is anticipated to show a rebound of 0.7% in November, driven by strong online sales during shopping events [9] Labor Market Insights - The December non-farm payroll report indicated a slowdown in job growth, with only 584,000 jobs added in 2025, the lowest since 2003, excluding recession years [5][6] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, suggesting a "low hiring, low firing" scenario rather than a recessionary decline [6][7] Corporate Earnings Season - The earnings season for major U.S. banks is set to commence, with JPMorgan Chase and BNY Mellon reporting on Tuesday, followed by other financial giants [4][10] - Analysts expect strong performance from these banks, with a consensus that the S&P 500 index will continue its bullish trajectory into 2026, potentially reaching 8,000 points [3][10] TSMC's Performance - TSMC's earnings report is highly anticipated, as it serves as a bellwether for the AI chip supply chain, with expectations for strong demand from major clients like Nvidia [4][12] - TSMC reported a December revenue of approximately NT$335 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and a total revenue of NT$3.81 trillion for the year, reflecting a 31.6% growth [12][14] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the U.S. economy's "soft landing" narrative, with expectations for continued growth in 2026, supported by favorable fiscal policies and easing inflationary pressures [7][11] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in net interest income (NII) and strong performance in investment banking and wealth management [11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a strong rebound, with all three major indices closing higher, driven by key players in the AI computing industry such as Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom, and Micron Technology [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index reached new all-time closing highs, with the Dow gaining over 2% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by less than 2% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil futures saw a significant increase of over 3.7%, while WTI crude oil futures rose approximately 2.6%, following geopolitical developments in Venezuela [2] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases are anticipated, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which are crucial for assessing the US economy's trajectory and inflation trends [2][3] - Analysts expect a notable rebound in core CPI, with predictions ranging from 0.36% to 0.38% for December, significantly higher than the previous months' average of 0.08% [8] Group 4: Labor Market Insights - The December non-farm payroll report indicated a slowdown in the US labor market, with only about 584,000 jobs added in 2025, the lowest since 2003, excluding recession periods [5][6] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, suggesting a "low hiring, low firing" scenario rather than a recessionary decline [6] Group 5: Financial Sector Earnings - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, are set to release their fourth-quarter earnings, marking the beginning of the earnings season [4][11] - Analysts expect strong performance from these banks, driven by net interest income recovery and robust growth in investment banking and wealth management [12] Group 6: TSMC's Performance - TSMC reported a December revenue of approximately NT$335 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and a total revenue of NT$3.81 trillion for the year, reflecting a 31.6% growth [16] - The company's performance is critical for the AI chip supply chain, with expectations of continued strong demand from major clients like Nvidia and AMD [18] Group 7: Market Sentiment and Projections - Analysts predict that the S&P 500 companies will report an overall profit growth of 8.3% for the fourth quarter, continuing a trend of annual profit growth for ten consecutive quarters [15] - The outlook for the US banking sector is considered constructive, with expectations of sustained profitability and growth in 2026 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The December non-farm payroll data indicates a slight recovery in the U.S. labor market, suggesting that it is not deteriorating as rapidly as some economists had predicted, supporting the narrative of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy [1][3] Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs in December, slightly below the expected increase of 60,000, following significant downward revisions in the previous two months [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from a revised 4.5% in November to 4.4%, better than the anticipated 4.5%, reflecting a notable decrease in direct unemployment [1][3] - The employment growth and declining unemployment rate create a favorable environment for the stock market and support expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predict that the U.S. economy will gradually return to a path of moderate growth by 2026, with a more optimistic outlook for economic resilience [3][9] - The December employment data is seen as a positive indicator for the U.S. economy, reinforcing the "soft landing" narrative without causing negative disruptions to market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [3][5] Group 3: Sector Performance - The December job growth was primarily driven by the leisure and hospitality sectors, as well as healthcare, which have been significant contributors to non-farm employment in the past year [7] - The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report indicated a significant drop in announced layoffs, with only 35,553 job cuts in December, the lowest level since July 2024, alongside plans to add approximately 10,500 new jobs [6] Group 4: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts a stronger-than-expected GDP growth rate of approximately 2.6% for 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of 2%, driven by favorable fiscal and monetary conditions [9][10] - The combination of fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, and a robust AI investment cycle is expected to drive strong corporate earnings growth and overall economic performance in 2026 [10]

Group 1 - The non-farm payroll data is a key indicator for assessing the "soft landing" of the U.S. economy, with expectations of 73,000 new jobs in December and an unemployment rate of 4.5%, indicating labor market resilience [2][4] - The upcoming non-farm report is the first released on time after a 43-day government shutdown, enhancing its reliability compared to previous alternative indicators like ADP data [4] - Strong non-farm data could lead to a reduction in market expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while weak data may reinforce expectations for monetary easing [5] Group 2 - Non-farm data influences global liquidity expectations and can lead to adjustments in U.S. Treasury yields, with a recent rise in yields reflecting market speculation on strong non-farm data [5] - Positive non-farm data typically supports the U.S. dollar and negatively impacts precious metals, while weak data has the opposite effect, influencing stock market performance across different sectors [6] - It is essential to analyze the quality of non-farm data and consider subsequent economic indicators to avoid misinterpretation, as discrepancies between non-farm data and other metrics may indicate structural economic issues [7]