Group 1 - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with a notable decline in gasoline prices helping to moderate overall inflation, while rising prices for other goods indicate the impact of the Trump administration's expansionary tariffs on consumers [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing June's 2.9% and significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][2] - The prices of non-food and non-gasoline commodities increased for the second consecutive month by 0.2% in July, with specific categories like footwear experiencing a notable rise of 1.4%, the highest monthly increase in over four years [3] Group 2 - The tariffs are expected to lead to significant price increases for consumers, with projections indicating a 40% rise in shoe prices and a 38% rise in clothing prices by 2025 due to the tariffs [3][5] - Furniture and bedding prices rose by 0.9% in July, while outdoor equipment prices surged by 2.2%, marking the highest increase in over two years [3] - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. is anticipated to reach around 3.5% by the end of the year, driven by rising retail prices for imported goods such as furniture, toys, and appliances [5] Group 3 - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to reach 17.3%, the highest level since 1935, due to the series of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [6] - Economists expect that the high tariffs will lead to a gradual increase in prices rather than an immediate spike, indicating a slow decline in purchasing power for consumers [7][8] - The impact of tariffs on prices is expected to be more of a one-time adjustment rather than a continuous acceleration in inflation, as companies will recalibrate costs and share the burden with consumers [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem, stated that U.S. trade policies are characterized by "unpredictability" [1] Group 1 - The unpredictability of U.S. trade policies may impact Canadian businesses and the overall economy [1] - Macklem's comments highlight concerns regarding the stability of trade relations between Canada and the U.S. [1] - The statement reflects broader uncertainties in the global trade environment that could affect investment decisions [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming tariff deadline on August 1 could lead to increased tariffs on major trading partners, including Europe, Canada, and Mexico, which together account for nearly half of U.S. goods imports [1][2] - The potential impact of a 5% tariff increase on these partners could result in a negative shock to U.S. GDP that is twice as severe as previous measures against smaller economies [2] - The effects of tariffs are not limited to the macroeconomic level; different sectors in the U.S. stock market will experience varying impacts, necessitating continued attention to U.S. trade policy in investment strategies [2][5] Group 2 - The most likely economic scenario is "slowing growth with persistent inflation," with a probability of 40%, driven by the negative impacts of trade and immigration restrictions [4] - A second scenario of optimistic acceleration exists, with a 20% probability, contingent on easing trade and immigration policies or fiscal measures stimulating economic activity [4] - The third scenario, "economic slowdown triggered by trade," also holds a 40% probability, where further tariff increases could lead to a mild recession [4] Group 3 - In the fixed income market, an economic slowdown due to tariffs may lead to rising U.S. Treasury prices as the market anticipates a more dovish Federal Reserve [5] - The U.S. stock market faces a complex situation; while slowing growth may not disrupt the upward trend of the S&P index, different sectors will react differently to trade policies [5] - Industrial and capital goods companies may benefit from domestic investment despite rising costs, while consumer goods and retail sectors face greater pressure due to increased import costs and limited pricing power [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government has downgraded its monthly export assessment for the first time in a year, citing a decrease in export demand due to the anticipation of U.S. tariffs [1] Group 1: Economic Assessment - The Japanese government has adjusted its overall economic outlook, now stating that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace [1] - The recent growth in exports, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing equipment to Asia and automotive exports to the U.S., has leveled off [1] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Trade Policy - U.S. trade policies have had some effects in certain sectors, influencing Japan's export dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The evolving tariff situation continues to create both pressure and opportunities for the market [2][5] - The most likely economic scenario is slow growth with persistent inflation, with a 40% probability assigned to this outcome [2] - The potential for a mild recession increases if tariffs are raised on key trading partners, as they account for nearly half of U.S. goods imports [5] Group 2 - Fixed income markets are expected to see rising U.S. Treasury prices due to anticipated dovish shifts from the Federal Reserve [3] - The stock market may experience a differentiated impact, with the S&P 500 likely to continue its upward trend despite growth slowdowns, driven by a weaker dollar and tax incentives for key sectors [3] - Industries sensitive to trade policies will face varying impacts, with industrial goods benefiting from domestic investment while consumer goods and retail sectors may struggle due to rising import costs [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary, Hiroshi Matsuno, expressed confidence that the reduction of uncertainty will lower the downward pressure on Japan and the global economy from U.S. trade policies [1] Group 1 - The statement indicates a belief that improved clarity in trade policies will positively impact economic stability [1] - The reduction of uncertainty is seen as a key factor in mitigating risks associated with U.S. trade actions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the high uncertainty in the global economic outlook and the unpredictability of US trade policies [1] - One reason for not adjusting interest rates is that some data, including inflation, is slightly stronger than expected [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights ongoing concerns regarding U.S. trade policies, which are influencing gold prices to test the $3,370 level, raising questions about whether bulls can achieve further breakthroughs [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that the analysis is being conducted by Gao Yang, a researcher from Jinshi, who is currently live streaming the insights [1]

Core Viewpoint - Strong U.S. economic data is putting pressure on gold prices, with the market awaiting clearer prospects regarding interest rate cuts and trade policies [1] Economic Data Impact - Gold futures experienced a slight increase amid relatively light trading, but are expected to decline slightly this week due to uncertain Fed rate cut outlook and resilient U.S. economic data [1] - Strong initial jobless claims and retail sales data have led the market to remain cautious ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting [1] Market Sentiment - Despite the pressure, gold prices have risen by 27% year-to-date, influenced by geopolitical risks and concerns over dollar-denominated assets due to a weakening dollar [1] - The recent price movements of gold have been characterized by a range-bound trading pattern as the market awaits further clarity on U.S. trade policies, tariffs, and interest rate cut prospects [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean futures closed lower for the third consecutive day on July 10, mainly due to concerns about US trade policies, good weather in the Midwest, and speculative fund selling. The benchmark contract was down 1%. The report predicts that the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal may fluctuate weakly, while the DCE soybean may fluctuate sideways [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4,111 yuan/ton during the day session, up 21 yuan (+0.51%), and 4,108 yuan/ton during the night session, down 4 yuan (-0.10%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 2,947 yuan/ton during the day session, up 9 yuan (+0.31%), and 2,947 yuan/ton during the night session, up 7 yuan (+0.24%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1,007.25 cents/bushel, down 10.5 cents (-1.03%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 282.9 dollars/short ton, down 1.5 dollars (-0.53%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 2,820 - 2,880 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in East China, it was 2,810 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), unchanged; in South China, it was 2,830 - 2,850 yuan/ton, unchanged to up 10 yuan [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 74,000 tons/day, compared with 134,500 tons/day two days ago; the inventory was 770,700 tons/week, compared with 642,100 tons/week two weeks ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 9, CBOT soybean futures closed lower for the third consecutive day. The main reasons were concerns about US trade policies, good weather in the Midwest, and speculative fund selling. Traders were worried that the tariff dispute between the US and its major trading partners might damage overseas demand for US crops and exacerbate supply surplus. The lack of progress in trade negotiations between the US and China also made traders uneasy. The weather in the Midwest was generally good for soybean and corn growth, and there was a high probability of rainfall in the northern Midwest later this week [1][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is -1, indicating a weak trend; the trend intensity of soybean is 0, indicating a neutral trend (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract during the day session on the reporting day) [4].