Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean futures closed lower for the third consecutive day on July 10, mainly due to concerns about US trade policies, good weather in the Midwest, and speculative fund selling. The benchmark contract was down 1%. The report predicts that the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal may fluctuate weakly, while the DCE soybean may fluctuate sideways [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4,111 yuan/ton during the day session, up 21 yuan (+0.51%), and 4,108 yuan/ton during the night session, down 4 yuan (-0.10%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 2,947 yuan/ton during the day session, up 9 yuan (+0.31%), and 2,947 yuan/ton during the night session, up 7 yuan (+0.24%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1,007.25 cents/bushel, down 10.5 cents (-1.03%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 282.9 dollars/short ton, down 1.5 dollars (-0.53%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 2,820 - 2,880 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in East China, it was 2,810 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), unchanged; in South China, it was 2,830 - 2,850 yuan/ton, unchanged to up 10 yuan [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 74,000 tons/day, compared with 134,500 tons/day two days ago; the inventory was 770,700 tons/week, compared with 642,100 tons/week two weeks ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 9, CBOT soybean futures closed lower for the third consecutive day. The main reasons were concerns about US trade policies, good weather in the Midwest, and speculative fund selling. Traders were worried that the tariff dispute between the US and its major trading partners might damage overseas demand for US crops and exacerbate supply surplus. The lack of progress in trade negotiations between the US and China also made traders uneasy. The weather in the Midwest was generally good for soybean and corn growth, and there was a high probability of rainfall in the northern Midwest later this week [1][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is -1, indicating a weak trend; the trend intensity of soybean is 0, indicating a neutral trend (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract during the day session on the reporting day) [4].

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly kept the interest rate at 3.85%, indicating a wait-and-see approach due to global uncertainties from U.S. tariff plans [1][3] - Economists debated the potential for further easing, with expectations of two more rate cuts this year, bringing the cash rate to 3.35% before a prolonged pause [1][3] - Following the RBA's decision, the Australian dollar surged, and the three-year government bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 3.42% [1] Group 2 - The RBA stated it could wait for more information to confirm inflation is on a sustainable path to 2.5%, and that monetary policy is positioned to respond decisively to international dynamics affecting the economy [3] - Since the RBA's last meeting, monthly inflation in Australia has slowed to near the bottom of the 2-3% range, with weak household spending and prevailing pessimism in consumer confidence surveys [3] - The uncertainty from U.S. trade policies, particularly President Trump's tariff threats, has heightened the RBA's cautious stance [3][4] Group 3 - Australia's exposure to U.S. tariffs is relatively low at 10%, but the country has been affected by industry-specific tariffs on steel and aluminum [4] - According to the Australian Productivity Commission, proposed U.S. tariff adjustments could have a small positive impact on the local economy, potentially increasing actual GDP by 0.37% [4] - However, growing economic uncertainty is expected to slow global economic activity, household consumption, and business investment, particularly affecting irreversible investment decisions by businesses [4]

Core Insights - Copper prices continue to decline due to U.S. trade policies and a surge in copper supply from Chile [1] Group 1 - The ongoing drop in copper prices is influenced by U.S. trade policies [1] - Increased copper supply from Chile is contributing to the downward pressure on prices [1] - The duration of the copper price decline remains uncertain [1]

Policy Insights - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was passed by the U.S. Senate and House on July 1 and 3, respectively, expected to raise long-term GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points[5] - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3 trillion over the next 10 years (2025-2034) according to dynamic analysis by the Tax Foundation[5] - President Trump announced a new trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam while Vietnam will exempt all U.S. goods from tariffs[5] Economic Data - U.S. June ADP employment change fell to -33,000, significantly below the expected 98,000, marking the worst performance since March 2023[5] - Non-farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, exceeding the forecast of 106,000, with April and May figures revised up by 16,000[5] - The unemployment rate in June dropped to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3%[5] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices saw gains: S&P 500 up 1.7%, Dow Jones up 2.3%, and Nasdaq up 1.6%[15] - European stocks faced declines, with the STOXX 600 down 0.5% and the Nikkei 225 down 0.9%[15] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 15 basis points to 3.88% and the 10-year yield up 6 basis points to 4.35%[18] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices rose by 1.8% to $3,331.9 per ounce, while Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively[20] - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97, down 0.28% for the week, with the euro gaining 0.5% against the dollar[24]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment report indicates a surprising decline in U.S. private sector jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data - In June, U.S. private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs, the first decline in over two years, with the previous month's increase revised down to only 29,000 [3][4]. - The service sector saw a significant job loss of 66,000 positions, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [6][9]. - Manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors experienced job growth, adding a total of 32,000 positions, which partially offset the overall decline [9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Employers are increasingly cautious due to the impact of trade policies and are focused on aligning workforce numbers with the slowing economic activity [6]. - The average employment growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700 jobs in May, the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic [9]. - The proportion of consumers who believe job opportunities are plentiful has dropped to the lowest level in over four years [9]. Group 3: Wage Growth and Future Expectations - Wage growth is showing signs of slowing, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 6.8% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [9]. - The upcoming government non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [11].

Core Viewpoint - Currently, no companies have explicitly expressed that U.S. trade policies are impacting their capital expenditure plans [1] Group 1 - Japanese central bank officials indicate a lack of direct feedback from businesses regarding the influence of U.S. trade policies on their investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - France's June CPI rose for the first time this year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, surpassing expectations [1] - Service inflation accelerated to 2.4%, while food inflation slightly increased to 1.4%, and energy prices saw a narrower decline of 6.9% [1] - The rise in inflation is attributed to geopolitical tensions affecting prices, particularly in the Middle East, impacting major economies in the Eurozone [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) completed its eighth rate cut since June last year, as inflation had been cooling earlier in the year [2] - ECB officials expressed satisfaction with the current trajectory of consumer prices, which have decreased from record highs to just below the 2% target [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation and U.S. trade policies adds complexity to the economic outlook, prompting the ECB to maintain flexibility in its monetary policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is unable to commit to a specific interest rate path due to high uncertainty stemming from U.S. trade policies and the situation in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Economic Uncertainty - Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB, highlighted that the most significant uncertainty for future monetary policy is the unpredictable U.S. trade policies [1] - The impact of U.S. tariffs, implemented under Trump's administration, remains unclear, particularly whether they will lead to inflation or deflation [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The situation in the Middle East is also a critical factor contributing to the uncertainty surrounding the ECB's monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) cannot commit to a specific interest rate path due to high uncertainty stemming from U.S. trade policies and Middle Eastern developments [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Uncertainty** - The ECB's future monetary policy process is significantly influenced by unpredictable U.S. trade policies, which are seen as a major source of uncertainty [1] - The impact of President Trump's tariff measures on inflation remains unclear, with potential outcomes that could either increase or suppress inflation [1] - **Flexibility and Data Dependence** - The ECB management committee members emphasize the importance of maintaining flexibility and being data-dependent in their decision-making process [1]

欧洲央行管委Legal：中东局势和美国贸易政策造成不确定性。 ...