Core Viewpoint - The competition for the next chair of the Federal Reserve is intensifying, with Christopher Waller currently seen as the frontrunner. Analysts suggest that regardless of who is selected, the Fed is likely to adopt a more dovish stance [1][2]. Candidate Overview - The list of candidates for the next Fed chair has expanded from four to around ten, including notable figures such as Christopher Waller, James Bullard, Stephen Moore, Kevin Hassett, Mark Sulzman, and Kevin Warsh. The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessenet, is leading the selection process and has expressed a strong impression of Waller after his interview [1][4]. - Waller, who has been a Fed governor since December 2020, is viewed as a suitable candidate due to his willingness to adjust policies based on future economic predictions rather than current data [4][5]. Monetary Policy Perspectives - Waller's monetary policy stance is considered dovish, having supported a 25 basis point rate cut in July. He advocates for quicker policy easing to stimulate the economy as long as inflation risks are manageable [5][6]. - Other candidates also show support for rate cuts, with Hassett criticizing the Fed for slow rate reductions and Warsh and Bullard shifting from hawkish to dovish positions recently [5][6]. Candidate Profiles - **Christopher Waller (65 years)**: Supports rate cuts and focuses on potential inflation excluding tariff impacts. He is seen as a leading candidate due to his understanding of the Fed's system [6]. - **Kevin Warsh (55 years)**: Previously hawkish, now supports rate cuts and advocates for coordination between the Fed and Treasury on national debt management [6]. - **Kevin Hassett (63 years)**: Critiques the Fed's slow rate cuts and has a close relationship with Trump, favoring aggressive fiscal stimulus [6]. - **Stephen Moore (42 years)**: Known for advocating for tax cuts and deregulation, he supports structural reforms in the Fed [6]. - **James Bullard (64 years)**: Historically a hawk, he has recently indicated a willingness to support rate cuts [6]. - **Mark Sulzman (55 years)**: His recent views are unclear, but he has a background in coordinating economic policies during the Bush administration [6]. Implications of New Appointments - The nomination of Stephen Moore by Trump to fill a vacancy at the Fed could further strengthen the dovish faction within the Fed, although it may not significantly impact recent monetary policy decisions [7][8]. - Analysts believe that Moore's potential influence on the Fed's decision-making will depend on the economic conditions at the time of his confirmation [8].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is in the process of selecting a new chair, with candidates including Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, and Lori Logan among others [1][2] - President Trump is expected to announce the final decision on the new chair in the fall, following interviews conducted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenette [1][3] - The nomination of Stephen Milan to fill a vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board is pending Senate confirmation, which has led to a more measured approach in selecting the new chair [1][4] Group 2 - The next Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for September 16-17, and the future chair's options may be more limited than usual [3][4] - Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller have expressed differing opinions on interest rates, advocating for a 25 basis point cut during the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting [4][5] - Philip Jefferson is noted as a potential first Black chair of the Federal Reserve, and he has supported the decision to maintain stable interest rates this year [5]

Core Points - Trump is expected to announce the new Federal Reserve Chair soon, with a decision on the candidates to be made this weekend [1][4] - The potential candidates have been narrowed down to four, excluding Treasury Secretary Scott Pruitt [2][3] - The leading candidates include Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, with Christopher Waller likely being the third candidate [5][6] Candidate Analysis - Kevin Hassett is currently Trump's economic advisor and has a strong understanding of Trump's economic policies [5] - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, is known for his moderate hawkish stance and has a reputation on Wall Street [5][7] - Christopher Waller recently voted against a policy and supports interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump's preference for looser monetary policy [6][7] Additional Candidates - The identity of the fourth candidate remains undisclosed, but James Fishback has expressed interest in the position [4][8] - There are indications of another candidate being discussed, as noted by Jim Bianco, a macro analyst [8][12] Implications of Appointments - Trump's decision on the successor to Adriana Kugler is significant, as it may influence future monetary policy discussions [15] - The new appointee could potentially be positioned to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman as indicated by Trump's recent statements, highlighting a narrowed list of four candidates and the implications of upcoming appointments on monetary policy [1][2][3]. Candidate Analysis - Trump has narrowed down the candidates for the next Fed Chair to four, excluding Scott Bessent, with Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett being the leading candidates [2][4]. - Warsh, a former Fed governor, is recognized for his moderate hawkish stance and experience during the financial crisis, while Hassett is currently Trump's economic advisor and familiar with his economic policies [5]. - Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor, is likely to be the third candidate, aligning with Trump's preference for a more accommodative monetary policy [6][8]. - The identity of the fourth candidate remains undisclosed, but James Fishback, CEO of Azoria, has expressed interest in the position [9][12]. Implications of Appointments - Trump's decision on the successor to Fed Governor Adriana Kugler is expected to influence short-term monetary policy and could serve as a precursor to the next Fed Chair selection [3][21]. - The new appointee's term lasts until January, but they may be positioned to influence policy discussions leading up to Powell's term expiration in May [21][22]. - Trump suggested that selecting a candidate who could lead the Fed directly would allow for immediate influence on policy debates [22]. Candidate Odds - Current betting odds show Warsh leading with a 29% chance, followed closely by an undisclosed candidate at 28%, Hassett at 22%, Waller at 15%, and Bessent at 1% [19].

Group 1 - The core candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair have been narrowed down to four, excluding Treasury Secretary Scott Pruitt [1] - The two leading candidates are Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, and Kevin Hassett, the current economic advisor to Trump [2] - A potential third candidate is Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor, who has expressed support for interest rate cuts [2][10] Group 2 - The identity of the fourth candidate remains undisclosed, but James Fishback, CEO of Azoria, has expressed interest in the position [3] - Fishback has previously worked as an advisor in the government and is seeking to provide relevant information for consideration [3] - There is speculation about another candidate not yet discussed, as indicated by Jim Bianco, a macro analyst [3] Group 3 - Current betting odds show Warsh leading with a 29% chance, followed closely by the undisclosed candidate at 28%, while Hassett has risen to 22% and Waller to 15% [7] - Trump's upcoming decision on the successor to Adriana Kugler is significant, as it may influence future policy discussions [10] - The new appointee could potentially be a candidate to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year [10]

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is the potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, narrowed down by Trump to four individuals, excluding Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet [1] - The two leading candidates mentioned are Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, and Kevin Hassett, currently serving as Trump's economic advisor [2] - A third candidate likely to be considered is current Fed governor Christopher Waller, who has expressed views aligning with Trump's preference for looser monetary policy [2][10] Group 2 - The identity of a fourth candidate remains undisclosed, but James Fishback, CEO of Azoria, has expressed interest in the position [3] - Polling data indicates that Warsh has a 29% chance of being selected, with an undisclosed candidate at 28%, Hassett at 22%, Waller at 15%, and Bessenet at 1% [7] - Trump's upcoming decision on the successor to Fed governor Adriana Kugler is significant, as it may influence future policy discussions and potentially set the stage for the next Fed Chair [10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, believes that regional banks have strong candidates for the position of Federal Reserve Chair [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the competitive landscape for the Federal Reserve Chair position, particularly among regional banks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hassett is emerging as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, supported by various favorable factors amid Trump's consideration for a more aligned leadership [1] Group 1 - Hassett's background includes serving as the Director of the National Economic Council and being a key economic advisor during Trump's first term, which gives him a unique advantage over other candidates [1] - He has maintained a strong relationship with Trump for nearly a decade, making him one of the few advisors who has earned the President's trust [1] - Hassett has experience in both government roles and the private sector, having worked for a private equity firm founded by Trump's son-in-law Kushner after his government service [1] Group 2 - During the 2024 presidential campaign, Hassett provided economic policy advice to Trump, further solidifying his role as a trusted advisor [1] - He is recognized as a disciplined spokesperson who is adept at handling media, a quality that Trump values in his senior appointees [1] - The main challenge for Hassett will be to demonstrate to the market that he can maintain sufficient independence as Fed Chair while being a loyal supporter of Trump, in order to uphold the credibility of the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chances of White House National Economic Council Director Hassett becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair have increased, but the selection process by Trump remains uncertain [1] Group 1 - Hassett's potential candidacy for the Federal Reserve Chair is gaining traction [1] - The process for selecting the next Federal Reserve Chair by Trump is still subject to variability [1]

两位名叫"凯文"的共和党人，目前正成为角逐下任美联储主席的最大热门。 据素有"新美联储通讯社"之称的Nick Timiraos援引知情人士透露，这两位"凯文"分别是：现 任美国国家经济顾问委员会主任凯文·哈塞特和前美联储理事凯文·沃什。 其中，之前呼声还并不算高的哈塞特，如今正逐渐成为美联储下任主席的有力竞争者。他的崛 起甚至已经开始威胁到了凯文·沃什的地位。 沃什曾是该职位的早期热门人选，自从八年前特朗普未选择他而选择鲍威尔以来，沃什一直在 暗暗谋求此位。不过，一些与总统关系密切的人士担心，不属于特朗普核心圈子的沃什，可能 不会轻易支持降息。 Timiraos对此撰文形容称，瑞正在发生的事情似乎具有典型的特朗普风格：让两个雄心勃勃的 男人在一场高风险竞赛中争夺他的认可，这与特朗普曾在真人秀节目《学徒》中推崇的董事会 博弈如出一辙…… 注：红线代表哈塞特当选概率 哈塞特正异军突起？ 据知情人士透露，哈塞特在6月份已至少两次与特朗普会面讨论美联储职位的问题。这些讨论 标志着哈塞特的转变，他之前曾告诉盟友自己对此不感兴趣，但现在却表示如果被邀请，他会 接受这份工作。 现年63岁的哈塞特是一位书卷气十足的博士经济学 ...