Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.65% at 47,147.48 points, the S&P 500 down 0.05% at 6,734.11 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.13% at 22,900.59 points [2] - For the week, the Dow Jones rose 0.34%, the S&P 500 rose 0.08%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.45% [4] Employment and Economic Data - The U.S. Labor Department postponed the release of the September employment report to November 21, which will include adjusted wage data [4] - Initial jobless claims are estimated to have slightly decreased from 228,900 to 227,500, indicating a stable labor market [4] - Kansas City Fed President Esther George expressed concerns that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation risks rather than support the labor market [4] Corporate Layoffs - Verizon Communications is planning to announce a layoff of approximately 15,000 to 20,000 employees, marking the largest layoff in the company's history [5] - This layoff is part of a corporate transformation strategy under new CEO Daniel Schulman, potentially reducing the workforce by up to 20% from around 100,000 employees as of February [5] Oil Price Movements - Oil prices increased due to geopolitical tensions, including an attack on a key Russian oil port by Ukraine and the seizure of a tanker by Iran [9] - WTI crude oil for December delivery rose 2.39% to $60.09 per barrel, while Brent crude for January delivery increased 2.19% to $64.39 per barrel [9] - Energy stocks saw collective gains, with ExxonMobil up over 1%, Chevron up over 1%, and ConocoPhillips up over 2% [9][10] Technology Sector Developments - Google is adjusting its advertising strategy to comply with EU antitrust requirements, opting not to sell parts of its ad tech business [6] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia and Microsoft both rising over 1%, while Amazon and Google saw declines of over 1% [6] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.61% [11] - Notable declines included Futu Holdings down over 7% and JD.com down over 4%, while some companies like Canadian Solar and Tuya Smart saw gains [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, and more. It covers multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products, and also includes international and domestic economic data. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil. The ten - day percentage changes of several currency exchange rates are also provided [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - In Brazil, rainfall may last until the end of this week, and the southern part may return to dry weather next week. In Argentina, precipitation is expected to increase this weekend, but the precipitation potential is small in the second half of November [4]. 3.3.2 International Supply and Demand - Indonesia's palm oil production from January to September this year exceeded 43 million tons, with a 11% year - on - year increase, and exports were about 25 million tons, a 13.4% year - on - year increase. The government is considering expanding the oil palm plantation area by 600,000 hectares next year and will start B50 biodiesel road tests in early December, planning to implement the B50 blending standard in the second half of next year, which may reduce palm oil exports by 11% - 12% in 2026 [6][7]. - India's palm oil imports in October were 602,381 tons, lower than in September. The proportion of palm oil in India's vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year dropped below 50% for the first time [8]. - USDA export sales reports show the export sales, shipments, and new sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil as of September 25 [8][9]. - CONAB expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach 177.6016 million tons, a 3.6% year - on - year increase, with a 3.6% increase in the sown area and a 0.1% decrease in the yield per hectare [10]. - Brazil exported 942,502 tons of soybeans, 433,164 tons of soybean meal, and 1,602,174 tons of corn last week (November 2 - 8), and plans to export 1,361,184 tons of soybeans, 594,397 tons of soybean meal, and 1,600,468 tons of corn this week (November 9 - 15) [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index ended a three - day decline, with all ship - type freight rates rising [11]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On November 13, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 30,720 tons, a 53% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills decreased by 65,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate of oil mills was 60.97%, a 1.85% increase from the previous day [13]. 3.4 Macro News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 51.6%. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to release the October CPI report as scheduled due to the government shutdown [15]. - The IEA monthly report predicts that the total global oil supply in 2026 will reach 108.7 million barrels per day, and the supply of OPEC+ will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with the global oil supply exceeding demand by 4.09 million barrels per day [16]. - The eurozone's industrial output monthly rate in September was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.7% [17]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On November 13, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0865, up 32 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 97.2 billion yuan [19]. 3.5 Fund Flows - On November 13, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.722 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 9.89 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 14.694 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net capital outflow of 0.91 billion yuan [22].

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant selling pressure, with Bitcoin and most related assets deeply entrenched in a bear market, as noted by 10X Research [4] - In the last 24 hours, nearly 200,000 individuals have faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market, indicating high volatility and risk [2] - The total liquidation amount over the past 24 hours reached approximately $760 million, with long positions accounting for $760 million and short positions for $150 million [3] Bitcoin ETF and Market Sentiment - The sell-off of spot Bitcoin ETFs has reached approximately $2.8 billion over the past month, suggesting a potential outflow of funds if Bitcoin's price momentum continues to stagnate before the December Federal Reserve meeting [3] - Market sentiment is further pressured by the dual forces of spot selling and corporate hedging, leading traders to largely avoid altcoins [4] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain stable interest rates to continue applying pressure on inflation, which remains stubbornly high [5] - Current interest rates are not considered restrictive enough, and inflationary pressures are expected to persist into early next year [6] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December stands at 51.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates is at 48.4% [8] International Developments - South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol announced a consensus with the U.S. on tariff and security negotiations, including plans for South Korea to build nuclear submarines [11] - The partnership will extend to shipbuilding, artificial intelligence, and nuclear industries, indicating a strengthening of U.S.-South Korea relations [12]

美联储最新一轮降息将基准利率下调至3.75%至4%区间，然而政策制定者之间对下一步走向的分歧正逐渐公开化。 多位地区联储主席在近期讲话中表达了对通胀、就业以及利率水平的不同判断，显示出货币政策路径的不确定性正在增加。 市场方面对此反应明显，利率期货定价显示，美联储在12月会议再次降息的可能性仅"接近五五开"，这种不确定性正影响着投资者的预期。 分析认为，这种政策分歧实际上反映了美国经济面临的复杂局面：一方面通胀压力尚未完全缓解，另一方面劳动力市场需要适度支持，而经济前景又存在变 数。各联储主席基于对不同经济数据的侧重，自然得出了有所差异的政策结论。这种分歧在接下来的经济数据公布后可能会更加明朗，但目前来看，美联储 政策路径仍充满变数。 哈马克认为当前利率水平"几乎算不上限制性"，并暗示中性利率可能高于多数人的预估。她特别关注企业转嫁成本压力的现象，认为这将导致通胀持续到年 底甚至明年初，因此主张通过维持利率来保持政策的限制性。 圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆同样主张谨慎推进降息。他支持此前降息对劳动力市场的支撑作用，但强调通胀仍高于2%的目标，政策需要保持一定限制性。 穆萨勒姆将当前政策状态描述为"略微偏紧与中性之 ...

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has detected signs of weakness in the US economy, predicting that the GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter will be lower than the previously forecasted 1.9% [1] - Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities, noted that there is significant uncertainty regarding the economic situation [1] Group 2 - Comments from senior Federal Reserve officials have diminished market confidence in a potential rate cut in December [3] - St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem emphasized the need for caution in further rate cuts due to inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target [3] - Federal Reserve officials, including Kashkari and Harmack, expressed a preference to maintain current interest rates to continue addressing inflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Boston Fed President Collins indicates that the threshold for further interest rate cuts in the short term is "relatively high" due to ongoing concerns about elevated inflation levels [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Policy - Collins expresses caution regarding further easing of monetary policy unless there are clear signs of deterioration in the labor market, especially given limited inflation data due to government shutdowns [1] - She suggests that maintaining the current policy rate for some time may be appropriate to balance inflation and employment risks in the current uncertain environment [1] Internal Fed Dynamics - Collins' remarks highlight deep divisions within the Federal Reserve, as several voting and non-voting officials have increasingly signaled caution regarding rate cuts since the last reduction [1] Economic Conditions - Collins notes that short-term borrowing costs are currently in a "mildly restrictive" range, and the overall financial environment remains supportive of economic growth [1] - While the labor market is showing signs of slowing, the downward risks have not intensified since the summer [1]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones reaching a new historical high for the second consecutive day amid expectations that the government shutdown may soon end [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 326.86 points, or 0.68%, closing at 48,254.82 points; the Nasdaq fell by 61.84 points, or 0.26%, to 23,406.46 points; and the S&P 500 rose by 4.38 points, or 0.06%, to 6,850.99 points [1] - European markets also saw gains, with the German DAX30 up by 295.98 points, or 1.23%, and the French CAC40 rising by 85.01 points, or 1.04% [1] Oil Market - Oil prices experienced their largest drop since June, with WTI crude futures falling by 4.2% to approximately $58.50 per barrel, erasing gains from the previous three trading days [2] - Brent crude for January decreased by 3.8%, closing at $62.71 [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin declined by 1.3%, trading at $101,743.8, while Ethereum fell by 0.12% to $3,412.13 [3] Precious Metals - Spot gold rose by 1.64%, reaching $4,194.49 [4] Economic Indicators - U.S. credit and debit card spending in October saw a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, marking the largest growth since early 2024, driven by strong demand from high-income households [10] - The overall inflation rate in September was reported at 3%, indicating that retail spending growth may reflect price increases rather than an increase in transaction volume [10] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on interest rate adjustments, with some advocating for maintaining rates due to persistent inflation concerns [6][11] - The potential for a significant rate cut was discussed, with some officials suggesting a 50 basis point reduction, although a 25 basis point cut is more likely [5] Company Developments - Waymo has launched the first highway autonomous taxi service in the U.S., marking a significant milestone in its competition with ride-hailing companies [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic expressed a preference to maintain interest rates until there is "clear evidence" that inflation is returning to the 2% target level [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Bostic indicated that the risks associated with the Fed's "dual mandate" of price stability and a strong labor market suggest that the more pressing risk is price stability [1] - He believes that signals from the labor market are ambiguous and insufficient to justify aggressive monetary policy responses in light of ongoing inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Personal Context - Bostic's comments came shortly after he unexpectedly announced plans to retire at the end of February [1] - With his retirement approaching, Bostic will no longer participate in the voting on U.S. interest rate policy [1] Group 3: Alignment with Other Decision Makers - Bostic's views align with a group of hawkish decision-makers among the regional bank presidents of the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, indicated that the U.S. economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, while inflationary pressures related to tariffs are currently under control [1] Group 1 - The U.S. economy is potentially facing a demand downturn [1] - Tariff-related inflationary pressures are being managed effectively [1] - Maintaining excessively high interest rates for an extended period could harm the economy [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's price has experienced significant volatility, dropping approximately 21% from its all-time high last month to around $99,000, before recovering slightly above $100,000 [1][2] - Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and Solana, have also seen sharp declines, with Ethereum down about 12% and Solana down about 19% in the past week [2] - The overall crypto market is facing challenges, with Ethereum down roughly 30% since August and Solana down about 41% since January [3] Market Context - The recent downturn in the crypto market coincides with broader economic uncertainties, including a decline in the S&P 500 and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts [4][7] - A significant flash crash on October 10 resulted in over $19 billion in liquidations, marking the worst liquidation event in crypto history, which has contributed to the current market weakness [5][6] Investor Sentiment - Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding potential future rate cuts have negatively impacted investor sentiment, leading to a decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices shortly after his remarks [7] - Social media reactions indicate growing concern among investors as Bitcoin slipped below the $100,000 mark [8]