Core Viewpoint - The market maintains a "buy" rating for AngloGold, raising the target price to $107, supported by predictions of gold prices potentially reaching $6,000 by 2026 due to geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, which indirectly benefits gold mining stocks [1]. Group 1: Institutional Views - Over the past week, AngloGold's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a range increase of 7.67% and a fluctuation of 11.70%. The stock closed at $98.59 on February 5, rose to $103.95 on February 6, further increased to $107.19 on February 9, and reached a latest closing price of $108.61 on February 10. The total trading volume during this period was approximately $10.4 billion [2]. Group 2: Recent Events - The international gold price experienced a "roller coaster" trend over the past week, rebounding above $5,000 per ounce after a drop from historical highs. Key drivers include geopolitical risks, changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, and central bank gold purchases. On February 3, gold prices recorded the largest single-day increase since 2009, followed by stabilization that boosted sentiment in gold mining stocks [3].

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar has been on a downward trend against the US dollar for four consecutive trading days, driven by high oil prices and positive domestic economic data in Canada [1] - International oil prices remain high due to ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and concerns over potential supply disruptions, which have increased the risk premium on oil [1] - The EIA's short-term energy outlook predicts Brent crude oil prices at $58 per barrel and WTI prices at $53.42 per barrel for 2026, indicating strong support for oil prices [1] Group 2 - Canada's unemployment rate has dropped to 6.5%, the lowest since September 2024, significantly better than the market expectation of 6.8%, alleviating concerns about an economic slowdown [1] - The improvement in the job market has reduced investor expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Canada, leading to a favorable shift in interest rate differentials for the Canadian dollar [1] - The upcoming US employment report is a key focus, with expectations of a 70,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and an unemployment rate holding at 4.4%, which could influence the direction of the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]

今天，黄金市场再次成为焦点。 2026年2月9日，国内金价强势上涨，现货黄金价格突破1116元/克，单日涨幅达到2.02%，而上海期货交易所的沪金主力合 约更是飙升3.88%。 这种涨势背后，是地缘政治紧张情绪的集中释放。 但与此同时，国际市场上的伦敦现货黄金价格却下跌了0.65%，形成鲜明对比。 市场 参与者正在密切关注明天的行情会如何演变。 当天的价格数据显示，国内黄金市场表现强劲。 上海黄金交易所的现货黄金价格在交易中持续走高，最终收于1116元/克附近。 沪金主力合约同样表现抢 眼，收盘时涨幅接近4%。 这些数字反映了国内资金对黄金的强烈兴趣。 相比之下，伦敦金属交易所的现货黄金价格小幅下跌，报收于4995美元/盎司左 右。 这种分化现象引起了分析师的注意。 地缘政治消息成为推动金价上涨的直接因素。 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发表关于贸易政策的言论，加剧了市场对国际关系紧张的担忧。 同时，欧洲议 会决定暂缓批准欧美贸易协议，这些事件都刺激了避险资金的流入。 世界黄金协会在近期报告中指出，黄金已成为市场首选的避险资产，特别是在不确定 性加大的环境中。 资金流向方面，黄金ETF出现了明显的资金流入。 截至 ...

(一)看涨派 巴克莱：预测短期回调至 4550 美元，理由是美元阶段性反弹与市场超买，叠加 CME 两周内三次上调 黄金期货保证金，或挤出杠杆资金加剧波动。 花旗：警告短期超买，存在回踩 3800-4000 美元可能，建议等待波动率回落再增配。 (三)中性派 摩根士丹利：认为短期金价在 4800-5100 美元区间震荡，需等待美国 1 月 CPI 等数据指引美联储政策预 期，避免追高，建议分批布局。 美国银行：短期看 6000 美元，但提示需警惕美国大选周期与贸易摩擦反复对美元的阶段性支撑，导致 金价高位震荡。 摩根大通：Jason Hunter 团队认为短期震荡是消化涨幅，非趋势终结;将年底目标价上调至 6300 美元， 核心逻辑是央行购金持续、美元信用走弱、地缘风险支撑，强调黄金已成为长期资产配置刚需。 高盛：上调 2026 年底目标价至 5400 美元，指出央行购金重塑需求结构，否认泡沫化风险，美联储降息 预期与去美元化进程将推动金价稳步上行。 所罗门全球市场：Nick Cawley 称当前波动只是 "短期噪音"，几周内金价有望再破 5000 美元，二季度 测试 5600 美元高位，技术面与基本面支撑未 ...

近期全球黄金市场呈现明显的震荡格局，多空双方博弈持续升温，金价在区间内反复波动，既展现出阶段性强势，也伴随短期回调压力。作为连接普通投资 者与黄金资产的便捷工具，黄金ETF的布局节奏备受关注。下文将从市场波动根源、金价驱动因素入手，结合当前市场环境，为投资者解析黄金ETF的合理 布局思路。 数据来源：Wind，2026/2/9 回顾近期伦敦金现走势，整体呈现剧烈波动。1月下旬受美联储降息预期与避险需求推动，金价持续走强，1月29日触及5598.75美元/盎司历史新高，随后获 利盘集中出逃引发快速回调，1月30日单日大跌，2月初下探至4402美元/盎司，回撤幅度显著。随后强势深V反弹，单日大涨超5%，收复关键价位，随后逐 步企稳回升，当前伦敦金现报5017.77美元/盎司，围绕5000美元关口高位整理。本轮行情核心驱动来自美联储政策预期摇摆、短期资金博弈与央行购金支 撑，短期波动加剧，市场在高位震荡中重新定价利率与避险逻辑，整体维持强势格局。 当前黄金定价仍由风险溢价与货币政策预期共同锚定。美国劳动力市场多项数据持续走弱，CME FedWatch显示2026年内降息概率进一步上修，无息资产的 中期配置环境持续改 ...

可以说，此前剧烈的市场震荡，更多是源于前期涨幅过快所引发的技术性调整与获利盘的集中清洗，而 非长期牛市的终结。这一过程甚至可以定性为消化前期巨大涨幅的"中场休息"，市场很可能进入一个持 续数周乃至数月的宽幅震荡整理期。 当然，本周将公布非农和CPI数据，若数据组合呈现出"就业疲软"与"通胀顽固"并存的矛盾局面，或将 在金融市场引发更剧烈的波动。因此，操作上适宜采取高空低多、在关键支撑与阻力区间内进行波段操 作的策略。 来源：市场资讯 2月9日，上周五美元指数从两周高点回落，黄金大涨，周线亦是重收一根阳线。本周的重磅消息无疑将 集中在延迟公布的1月美国非农就业报告以及CPI通胀数据上。这些关键指标将为评估美联储稳定通胀 和扩大就业的双重政策目标提供至关重要的信息，市场也必将借此重新修正对美联储未来政策路径的预 期。当然，地缘政治层面，如美伊谈判、俄乌局势进展以及特朗普政府的关税政策动向，也将持续对市 场情绪构成影响。 周一（2月9日）现货黄金在经历了从历史高点附近（约5595美元）的回落后，市场格局已从单边上涨转 变为高位宽幅震荡。今日早盘金价虽然强势反弹，但5100-5150美元区域被普遍视为沉重的短期阻力 ...

本周华尔街对于黄金价格仍然十分乐观，总共18位专业分析师，其中有12位分析师看涨，2位分析师看 跌，其余分析师认为横盘。散户方面，总共329人，其中210位看涨黄金，只有62位看跌。 另外，投机者削减comex黄金净多头头寸27983手，但仍保持93438手的高位，削减comex白银净多头头 寸2803手，仍持有4491手。 芝加哥商品交易所在两周内，第三次上调黄金和白银期货的保证金要求，说明金银的波动性已经加剧到 令交易所警惕的程度。保证金上调通常会挤出部分杠杆投机者，导致流动性短期下降和价格波动加剧。 不过，即使如此，黄金价格仍然能够强势反弹，恰恰证明了市场深层存在坚实的逢低买入力量。这种在 利空压力下展现的韧性，是黄金内在强势的信号。 当前数据显示美国就业和通胀持续放缓但部分领域在美联储降息提振下有所改善，尽管美联储未来在衡 量就业的通胀目标问题上仍有分歧短期趋于谨慎，但贸易摩擦和地缘风险的担忧驱动资金提前配置使金 价中长期上涨空间，在全球主流机构持续上调贵金属价格预测的情况下，部分机构投资者选择提前"抢 跑"配置贵金属，对价格形成支撑。市场或将更多受到美国经济数据对美联储政策预期影响和地缘局势 扰动， ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a rebound, with gold and silver prices recovering after a volatile period, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [1][8]. Market Performance - Internationally, spot gold prices rose over 1.5%, surpassing $5040 per ounce, while spot silver prices increased by over 4%, reaching $81 per ounce [1][8]. - Domestic precious metal futures saw significant gains, with platinum rising over 9% and silver futures increasing by over 8% [3][10]. - Hong Kong-listed precious metal stocks also surged, with companies like WanGuo Gold and China Silver Group rising by over 5% [3][10]. Fund Activity - The Guotou Silver LOF fund announced a temporary suspension of trading to protect investor interests, with plans to resume trading on February 9, 2026 [3][10]. - Following its resumption, the fund experienced a volatile trading session, initially hitting the limit down before rebounding to a gain of 5.42% [11][12]. Price Trends and Predictions - Domestic gold jewelry prices are generally rising, with major retailers adjusting their buyback rules [14]. - Analysts from CITIC Securities believe the upward trend in gold prices is not over, driven by liquidity expectations and geopolitical tensions [14]. - The price of gold is expected to face resistance around $5200 per ounce, with potential for further declines if this level is not breached [14]. - Long-term trends indicate that precious metals will benefit from geopolitical disturbances and central bank purchases, maintaining an upward trajectory [15]. Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest a cautious approach due to high market uncertainty, with a preference for gold over silver in the medium to long term [15]. - Investors are advised to consider allocating a portion of their portfolio to physical gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, typically in the range of 5% to 10% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The gold price last week showed a sharp "plunge - rebound - volatile decline" pattern, driven by alternating influences of Fed policy expectations and geopolitical risks. In the short term, with multiple factors in play, the gold price may maintain wide - range fluctuations [7]. - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase and is currently at the end of the trend. Last week, the silver price showed a sharp unilateral decline, dropping 38.5% cumulatively, driven by macro - policies and a liquidity crisis [32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The gold price last week showed a sharp "plunge - rebound - volatile decline" pattern. The core driver was the alternating influence of Fed policy expectations and geopolitical risks. The market sentiment switched frequently, and funds were mainly speculative. In the short term, the gold price may maintain wide - range fluctuations. It is necessary to focus on Fed policy signals and the evolution of geopolitical conflicts [7]. - The mid - term strategy suggestion is to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2604 had a significant short - term high - level correction. The upper pressure was 1115 - 1165 yuan/gram, and the lower support was 950 - 1000 yuan/gram. It was recommended to close long positions and wait and see [10]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2604 has significant short - term high - level fluctuations. The upper pressure is 1150 - 1200 yuan/gram, and the lower support is 1000 - 1050 yuan/gram. With the Spring Festival approaching, attention should be paid to risks, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see [11]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the Shanghai Gold market trend, COMEX gold market trend, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23][25][27] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase and is currently at the end of the trend. Last week, the silver price showed a sharp unilateral decline, dropping 38.5% cumulatively. The core drivers were macro - policies and a liquidity crisis. The current market is dominated by sentiment and capital, and the future stabilization depends on Fed policy signals, the recovery of global liquidity, and the alleviation of market panic [32]. - The mid - term strategy suggestion is to wait and see [32]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The silver contract 2604 had a significant high - level correction. The upper pressure was 25,500 - 26,500 yuan/kg, and the lower support was 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/kg. It was recommended to close long positions and wait and see [35]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The silver contract 2604 has significant high - level fluctuations. The upper pressure is 21,000 - 23,000 yuan/kg, and the lower support is 17,000 - 19,000 yuan/kg. With the Spring Festival approaching, attention should be paid to risks, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see [36]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the Shanghai Silver market trend, COMEX silver market trend, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [42][44][46]

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 国内供应收缩给予铜价支撑 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周黄金市场经历剧烈震荡，价格从前一周的历史高位显著回落，进入调整阶 ...