Group 1 - The core elements of the current bull market remain intact, including resilient macro data, improving earnings, and easing trade tensions, despite the rebound being characterized as the "least popular" one [1] - The S&P 500 index is expected to reach historical highs of 6144 points this quarter, although the risk of a pullback is increasing [1] - The rise in yields is expected to drive investors towards high-quality stocks, particularly large tech stocks, while putting pressure on consumer staples and utilities [4] Group 2 - The market sentiment is optimistic, with active long investors appearing under-allocated compared to the S&P 500 index's rise, yet there has not been a significant "chase" for tech stocks [6] - The industrial sector showed resilience in the recent market rebound, indicating active buying rather than passive short covering [6] - Consumer spending data as of May 6 shows positive trends, contributing to the overall optimistic market sentiment [6] Group 3 - Funds are flowing back into U.S. risk assets, reversing the trend of outflows that primarily affected the Magnificent 7 stocks earlier in the year [7]

Group 1 - The core sentiment among stock options traders has shifted from fear to greed, with a significant increase in bullish positions betting on a continued rebound in the U.S. stock market [1] - The volume ratio of call options to put options in U.S. exchanges is at its highest level since February 18, coinciding with the previous all-time high of the S&P 500 index [1] - Susquehanna International Group indicates growing confidence that the S&P 500 index will reach a new high of 6150 points in September [1] Group 2 - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has dropped from 40 to below 20 in just 21 trading days, marking the fastest decline in history [3] - Historical data shows that in the past four instances where VIX fell below 20 within 100 trading days, the S&P 500 experienced gains over the following 1, 3, 6, and 12 months [3] - Despite the current optimism, there are concerns about the sustainability of this sentiment due to ongoing trade negotiations and low corporate earnings guidance [3] Group 3 - Systematic hedge fund buying is expected to support the stock market in the coming weeks, as these funds have been waiting for buy signals [4] - The decrease in panic levels over the past month is likely to encourage investors to re-enter the market [4]

美国银行策略师表示，在上个月的反弹中大多错过机会后，投资者将可能被迫追赶由美中贸易休战引发 的股市上涨。该行在日内瓦贸易谈判前进行的一项调查显示，基金经理对美国股票的净减持比例为 38%，为两年来最高水平。对美元的敞口为2006年以来最低，约40%的受访者计划增加对美元贬值的对 冲头寸。 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced a strong rebound on May 12, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1160.72 points, a 2.81% increase, closing at 42410.10 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 4.35% to 18708.34 points; and the S&P 500 Index increased by 3.26%, closing at 5844.19 points, marking the largest single-day gain in nearly two months [1] - Chinese assets performed particularly well, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 5.40%, reaching a new high since April 4. Several Chinese concept stocks saw significant gains, including a nearly 15% increase in Global Data, a 12% rise in Pony.ai, and over 7% increases in XPeng Motors and Bilibili. JD.com, Li Auto, and Pinduoduo all rose over 6%, while Alibaba, NIO, and Baidu saw gains exceeding 5% [1] - Leveraged ETFs also surged, with a 2x long China internet stock ETF soaring 11.07% and a 3x long FTSE China ETF rising 9.95% [1] - Technology stocks were the main drivers of the US market's rise, with Nvidia's stock increasing by 5.44%, pushing its market value back above $3 trillion; Apple rose 6.31%, Amazon increased by 8.07%, and Meta and Tesla recorded gains of 7.92% and 6.75%, respectively [1] - Safe-haven assets faced pressure, with spot gold prices dropping 2.69% to $3235.37 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures declining by 2.76% [1] Group 2 - The European market also showed an upward trend, with the French CAC40 index rising by 1.37%, the German DAX index slightly increasing by 0.29%, and the UK FTSE 100 index gaining 0.59%. Improved market sentiment led to a decline of over 12% in the VIX index futures, known as the "fear index" [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has experienced an unexpected strong rebound, with the S&P 500 index rising 14% in just one month since hitting a low on April 8 [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent rally has been primarily driven by retail investors who are aggressively "bottom-fishing," while institutional investors have largely exited the market due to concerns over economic slowdown and trade tensions [3][6]. - Retail investors have been net buyers of stocks for 21 consecutive weeks as of May 2, marking the longest buying streak since 2008 [6]. - Institutions are facing pressure to re-enter the market as they have missed out on the rally, leading to a potential "short squeeze" scenario [7]. Group 2: Institutional Investor Sentiment - Many institutional investors remain cautious, holding approximately 40% cash, and are only reluctantly starting to buy undervalued stocks [6][7]. - The volatility in the market has decreased, which may compel institutions to increase their market exposure despite their cautious stance [7]. - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path remain a significant worry for institutional investors, contributing to a divided outlook on the sustainability of the current rebound [9]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 index is still 7.9% below its historical high from February 19, and it needs to recover above 6000 points to regain a key upward trend line established since October 2022 [10]. - Analysts suggest that if the S&P 500 reaches 5800 points, it could trigger short-term buying from trend-following funds [8].

Group 1 - Dow futures down 0.14%, S&P 500 futures up 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.18% [1] - Bitcoin returns to $100,000, with Ethereum rising 24% to $2,412.26 [1] - Toyota expects a $1.3 billion loss due to tariffs in April and May, considering expanding local production in the U.S. [1] - Ford raises prices of three U.S. models imported from Mexico by $2,000, anticipating a 1% to 1.5% price increase in the second half due to tariffs [1] - Bank of America strategist suggests the recent rebound in U.S. stocks may have ended, recommending bonds over stocks for 2025 [1] Group 2 - Multiple companies, including Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, are considering acquiring BP's business [2] - Texas Teachers Retirement System reduced holdings in Nvidia by 9%, Tesla by 8%, and Apple by 12%, while increasing its stake in Eli Lilly by 11% [2] - TSMC reported April revenue of NT$349.6 billion, a 48% year-over-year increase, leading to a nearly 2% rise in its stock [2] Group 3 - Coinbase's Q1 profit was $65.6 million, down from $1.18 billion a year ago, with revenue of $203 million falling short of expectations [3]

Group 1 - Optimism surrounding trade negotiations has helped the S&P 500 index recover losses since Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, but the market has little room to absorb potential disappointing outcomes from these negotiations [1] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. was raised from approximately 5% to about 25%, marking the highest level in over a century, according to J.P. Morgan Wealth Management [1][3] - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of nearly 19% from its historical high of 6144.15 points on February 19 to a low of 4982.77 points by April 8, before rebounding strongly on the day Trump announced a pause on some tariffs [3][5] Group 2 - High-profile investors, such as Paul Tudor Jones, have expressed concerns that even if tariffs are reduced to around 40% or 50%, the stock market may still reach new lows due to the economic drag from high tariffs [3] - Goldman Sachs economists believe that a preliminary trade agreement between the U.S. and some countries may be reached soon, which could influence market sentiment positively [2] - Concerns about the potential economic damage from tariffs are growing, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates to support the market [3][7] Group 3 - Emily Bowersock Hill, managing $850 million in assets, noted that the Kansas Public Employees Retirement System has hedged currency risks and maintains a balanced portfolio between U.S. and international stocks [4] - Historical data from Goldman Sachs indicates that larger market rebounds have not necessarily marked the bottom of bear markets, suggesting caution for investors [6] - Peter Oppenheimer from Goldman Sachs highlighted that while investor expectations for trade agreements have increased, the details may be complex and could lead to prolonged uncertainty [7]

美股三大指数已基本从4月初的暴跌中恢复，标普500指数、纳斯达克指数和道琼斯工业指数自4月8日以来分别反 弹9.85%、11.91%和6.75%。然而华尔街策略师普遍认为，当前反弹缺乏持续动能，关税政策及企业财报不确定性 高企，投资者信心仍显不足。 // 关税政策和企业盈利前景模糊 // 汇丰银行美洲股权策略负责人Nicole Inui将标普500指数的年终目标从6700点下调至5600点，并建议客户在目前通 胀加剧、经济增长放缓及衰退可能性增大的情况下，将投资组合进行"防御性"配置。她在报告中写道："我们预 计市场的叙事将围绕衰退与滞胀之间反复波动，直到关税不确定性平息，美联储开始降息，或通胀压力未能进一 步上升。" Inui还表示，在经历了近期的市场调整后，市场已经将"浅度"衰退或可能出现的"轻微滞胀"情景纳入定价。这种 滞胀表现为通货膨胀上升而经济增长放缓。但她的研究也表明，若经济增长恶化的速度超出预期，那么"衰退交 易"可能会重新启动。历史数据显示，经济出现较为严重的衰退时，股市通常会有更大幅度的下跌。 Inui的研究还指出，在严重衰退期间，标普500指数通常会从近期的高点下跌约30%。她认为，若经济 ...

标普500指数今年以来的总回报率（包括股息）下降了5.7%。抛开"七巨头"，该回报率仅下降1.2%。而 以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数已从近期高点下跌20%，正处于熊市，且年内跌幅仍达10%。 据FactSet分析，"七巨头"在2025财年的利润将增长16%，低于2024年的37%。而分析师预期基准指数中 其他公司的盈利将增长7.8%，高于去年的约5%。 事实上，从公布财报的公司中已经嗅到悲观的气味。Alphabet首席执行官Sundar Pichai在最近的财报电 话会议上间接提到关税影响："我们显然不能免疫于宏观环境。但我们不想推测潜在影响，只需注意的 是，最低限额豁免的改变显然将对我们2025年的广告业务造成轻微阻力，主要来自亚太地区零售商。" 特斯拉CEO马斯克更是直言不讳："当利润率仍然较低时，关税对公司是严峻的考验。"此前特斯拉没有 更新2025年剩余时间的指引，理由是贸易政策对汽车和能源供应链影响的不确定性。 美股近日连续反弹，之前最为恐慌的时段仿佛已经逐渐消退。但本周财报季拉开帷幕，在关税阴影笼罩 市场的背景下，投资者对前瞻性指引的关注远超财务数据本身。接下来美国科技"七巨头"的市场表现， 一 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the rebound of the US stock market and the pullback in gold prices, indicating a shift in market sentiment as risk aversion decreases [1] - It highlights the resistance level for gold at 3500 and mentions that overbought signals have been confirmed, suggesting a need for defensive trading strategies [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data and mid-week GDP figures are expected to play a crucial role in determining market direction and the balance between bullish and bearish sentiments [1]