Core Viewpoint - The report from Haitong International indicates a cautious outlook for Prada (01913) with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a moderate growth trajectory amid industry recovery challenges [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Prada reported revenue of €1.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% (fixed exchange rate) [2] - By brand, Prada's revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year, while Miu Miu's revenue grew by 29%, following a high base of 105% growth in the same period last year [2] - Regional performance showed year-on-year revenue changes: Asia-Pacific +10%, Europe +2%, North America +20%, Japan -1%, Middle East +10%, with North America leading growth despite a high base [2] Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about Miu Miu's growth potential, driven by high-quality brand growth and significant store expansion opportunities [3] - As of the end of 2024, Miu Miu is expected to have 147 direct stores globally, compared to over 300 for YSL and BV, indicating room for growth [3] - Prada plans to enhance its product offerings through increased creative investment in leather goods and marketing of iconic products, aiming to broaden consumer reach [3]

Core Insights - The three major Chinese airlines, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China, reported strong financial performance in Q3, marking a significant recovery from previous losses and achieving profitability for the first three quarters post-pandemic [1][7] Group 1: Financial Performance - China Southern Airlines reported total revenue of 137.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.23%, with a net profit of 2.31 billion yuan, up 17.40% [2][3] - China Eastern Airlines achieved total revenue of 106.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.73%, with a net profit of 2.10 billion yuan, marking a significant turnaround from losses [4][5] - Air China reported total revenue of 129.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.31%, with a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan, up 37.31% [5][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recovery in domestic travel demand and the gradual restoration of international flights contributed to the improved financial results of the airlines [1][7] - China Southern Airlines has focused on enhancing service experience and dynamic pricing strategies to strengthen its competitive edge against low-cost carriers and high-speed rail [3][6] - The overall recovery of the aviation industry is still ongoing, with international capacity not yet reaching pre-2019 levels, indicating potential for future growth [3][6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Despite the recovery of the three major state-owned airlines, private carriers like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines experienced declines in profitability during the same period [7][8] - Hainan Airlines has emerged as the most profitable airline in the first three quarters, surpassing Spring Airlines, attributed to effective capacity management and operational efficiency [7][8] - The industry is facing challenges such as intense competition and pricing pressures, which have affected profitability across various airlines [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Eddiecon Holdings (09860) experienced a significant increase, closing up 9.27% at HKD 6.6, with a trading volume of HKD 41.53 million, following a report from Goldman Sachs indicating signs of recovery in the Chinese diagnostics industry starting in Q3 2025 [1] Industry Summary - Goldman Sachs' latest report suggests that the Chinese diagnostics industry, including Independent Clinical Laboratories (ICL) and In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD) companies, will show recovery signs beginning in Q3 2025 [1] - In the ICL sector, both Kingmed Diagnostics (603882) and Dian Diagnostics (300244) reported improvements in operating cash flow, with a sequential increase in revenue and an expansion in profit margins, despite not meeting revenue targets [1] - CITIC Securities noted a narrowing decline in ICL sector revenues for Q3 2025, although profits are still impacted by impairments [1] - The report highlights that companies with good cost and quality control are likely to gain market share, despite uncertainties in growth rates within the ICL industry [1] Company Summary - Eddiecon reported a gross profit of HKD 450 million and a net profit of HKD 43 million, making it the most profitable among the top three ICL companies [1] - Dian Diagnostics achieved a turnaround, reporting a net profit of HKD 10.27 million during the same period, while Kingmed Diagnostics remains in a loss position [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 174 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 138% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.6%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 49 million yuan, up 833% year-on-year and down 2.7% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a recovery in the semiconductor packaging and testing industry [2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was 174 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 138% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.6% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 49 million yuan, showing an increase of 833% year-on-year and a decrease of 2.7% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Deducting non-recurring gains, net profit was 48 million yuan, up 1413% year-on-year and down 3.7% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Industry Recovery - The semiconductor packaging and testing industry is experiencing a sustained recovery, with domestic packaging manufacturers seeing improved capacity utilization rates since 2024 [2]. - Capital expenditures in the industry have also started to recover, benefiting the company's sorting machine product revenue, which has shown significant year-on-year growth [2]. - The demand for high-end three-temperature sorting machines is increasing, particularly in automotive chip testing scenarios, with the EXCEED-9000 series gaining a larger revenue share [2]. Strategic Investments - The company has made strategic investments in five external firms, actively expanding into new fields such as IGBT and advanced packaging [3]. - The product matrix is continuously extending, with attention to storage areas and investments in companies specializing in wafer-level sorting machines and aging testing machines [3]. - The future growth path appears clear due to these strategic investments and product diversification [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain high growth in revenue and profit, driven by the recovery in the semiconductor packaging industry and strong demand for high-end sorting machines [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are anticipated to be significant, with corresponding net profit estimates indicating robust growth potential [3].

Core Insights - WuXi AppTec reported strong 3Q25 results, with revenue increasing by 15.3% YoY and adjusted non-IFRS net profit surging by 42.0% YoY [1] - Management raised its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting total revenue to be RMB43.5-44.0 billion, with revenue from continuing operations growing by 17-18% [1] - The backlog from continuing operations reached RMB59.88 billion, showing a strong YoY growth of 41.2% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue from continuing operations in 9M25 accounted for 73.8% of the full-year forecast, aligning with the historical average of 72% [1] - Adjusted non-IFRS net profit in 9M25 represented 85.7% of the full-year forecast, significantly higher than the historical average of 72% [1] - Revenue from drug discovery services declined by 2.0% YoY in 3Q25, but safety assessment services posted a 5.9% YoY growth [2] Growth Drivers - The small molecule D&M business is identified as a primary growth driver, accounting for 46% of total revenue in 2024 [1] - Management expects accelerated revenue growth for the small molecule D&M segment in 2026 [1] - Early-stage demand is showing signs of recovery, supported by a rebound in China's capital markets and robust global business development activity [2] Market Outlook - Management indicated that a broad-based industry recovery will take time, despite early signs of demand recovery [2] - The company is actively expanding manufacturing capacity in China, Singapore, the US, and Switzerland to meet rising customer demand [1] - The DCF-based target price has been raised from RMB118.79 to RMB123.35, reflecting an improved macro outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Co., Ltd. emphasizes its commitment to implementing staggered production plans in response to local regulatory requirements, aiming to combat "involution" within the industry and foster confidence in industry recovery [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The company is actively responding to inquiries from researchers regarding its adherence to staggered production plans [1] - Tianshan Co., Ltd. is dedicated to executing the staggered production strategies mandated by local regulatory bodies and industry associations [1] Group 2: Industry Context - There is a growing consensus within the industry against "involution" competition, indicating a shift towards more sustainable practices [1] - Mechanisms and methods for staggered production are becoming increasingly mature, contributing to a more robust industry ecosystem [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 23.50 CNY [1][5]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company demonstrated resilient operations despite industry challenges, with a continued increase in market share within the province and effective adjustments outside the province. The company is expected to show significant elasticity once tax rate disturbances are resolved and demand improves [2][12]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.306 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 324 million CNY, down 2.8% year-on-year [12]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 64.6% in the first three quarters of 2025, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 14.0% due to an increase in the effective tax rate [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 2.872 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 368 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 5.2% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 0.73 CNY, adjusted from previous estimates [12]. Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week price range of 17.60 to 23.55 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 10.044 billion CNY [6]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently 27.28 based on the latest diluted share capital [4][14]. Product and Sales Performance - The company’s revenue from white liquor in the first three quarters of 2025 was 22.22 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%. The performance varied by product category, with products priced above 300 CNY showing a 13.8% increase in revenue [12]. - Online sales continue to show growth, although they currently represent a low single-digit percentage of total sales [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, supported by its competitive advantages in the domestic market and ongoing brand enhancement efforts [12]. - The target price of 23.50 CNY corresponds to a P/E ratio of approximately 29x for 2026 [12].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock indices all rose on October 24, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.74% to 26,160.15 points, marking a weekly gain of 3.62% [1][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.82% to 6,059.89 points, with a weekly increase of 5.2% [1][2] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.68% to 9,363.94 points, achieving a weekly gain of 3.91% [1][2] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 3.214 billion [1] Stock Performance - Among the Hang Seng Index constituents, 61 stocks rose while 22 fell [2] - Notable gainers included SMIC, which rose by 8.04%, China Hongqiao by 4.29%, and WuXi AppTec by 3.95% [2][3] - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with the semiconductor industry index rising by 8.33% [6][12] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a robust uptrend, driven by domestic substitution and industry recovery [6] - The Wind concept sector saw most indices rise, with the financial IC index up by 13.63%, integrated circuit industry fund index up by 9.03%, and integrated circuit index up by 8.59% [4] - The Hang Seng Tech Index constituents had 26 stocks rising and 4 falling, with Huahong Semiconductor leading with a gain of 13.73% [4][12] Economic Outlook - Deutsche Bank raised its GDP growth forecast for China to 5.0% for the year, citing industrial and export growth as key drivers [15] - The report highlighted the need for policy stimulus to address weak consumption and investment, while also noting the potential impact of external factors like US-China trade relations on exports [15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company reported net sales of $10 billion, with EBITDA at $868 million, reflecting a sequential improvement despite being lower than the same period last year [4][5] - Cash provided by operating activities increased by $1.6 billion sequentially, driven by working capital improvements and advanced payments for low-carbon solutions [5][14] - The company delivered $249 million in dividends, demonstrating a commitment to competitive shareholder returns [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Packaging and Specialty Plastics**: Net sales decreased year-over-year and sequentially, with a 1% volume decrease year-over-year and a 2% sequential decline. Operating EBIT was $199 million, down from the previous year due to lower integrated margins [9][10] - **Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure**: Net sales were down 4% year-over-year but increased sequentially, with a 2% volume increase year-over-year and a 5% sequential increase. Operating EBIT increased significantly due to higher volumes and lower fixed costs [10][11] - **Performance Materials and Coatings**: Net sales were $2.1 billion, down 6% year-over-year and 2% sequentially, with operating EBIT decreasing due to upstream margin compression [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The broader macroeconomic landscape remains largely unchanged, with subdued business investment and consumer spending impacting demand across key markets [16] - In the packaging market, global demand remains steady, with North America experiencing record domestic and export volumes, while Europe contracted [16][17] - The infrastructure sector shows soft market conditions across the U.S., Europe, and China, with mortgage rates remaining high and limiting demand [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on restoring core earnings and positioning for profitable growth, with over $6.5 billion in strategic actions and cash support items planned [30] - The company is committed to being a low-cost producer, with over 75% of its global cracking capacity in a top-quartile cost position, expected to increase to 80% after the shutdown of the Bohlen cracker [27][28] - The company is actively engaged in discussions with governments to mitigate the impact of anti-competitive behaviors and ensure a fair trade environment [25][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the prolonged down cycle continues to weigh on the industry, but there are encouraging actions to address oversupply, particularly in ethylene and propylene oxide capacities [24] - The company anticipates Q4 EBITDA to be approximately $725 million, with expectations of margin compression from feedstock costs and normal seasonality impacting performance [18][19] - Management remains optimistic about the potential for recovery in 2026, contingent on improved economic conditions and consumer confidence [17][51] Other Important Information - The company has completed significant strategic actions, including a $3 billion partnership for U.S. Gulf Coast infrastructure assets and a $1.4 billion bond issuance for financial flexibility [6][14] - The company is on track to deliver approximately $400 million in targeted cost savings this year, with a total goal of $1 billion by the end of 2026 [7][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Reconciliation of Q3 results - Management highlighted that higher integrated margins and better-than-expected volume contributed to exceeding original guidance, along with accelerated cost reduction efforts [34][36] Question: Rationalization and project cancellations - Management provided insights on global capacity rationalization, particularly in ethylene, and noted potential delays in announced capacities in China due to market conditions [40][42] Question: Polyethylene demand - Polyethylene demand has remained stable, with strong performance in packaging and personal care segments, and expectations for continued stability [56][58] Question: CapEx outlook for 2026 - Management indicated a potential range of $2.5 billion for CapEx next year, with a focus on maintenance and strategic projects depending on market conditions [53][54] Question: MDI margins and construction market - Management noted that while MDI margins are benefiting from reduced imports due to tariffs, further reductions in mortgage rates are needed for a recovery in the construction market [64][66] Question: Demand function and order books - October order books appear strong, with management maintaining a balanced outlook for Q4 sales and EBITDA guidance [68][70]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the excavator sales are expected to grow rapidly by 2025, showing clear signs of industry recovery, driven by a new round of concentrated replacement cycles and the commencement of large projects, which will boost domestic demand [1] - The overseas market is experiencing structural prosperity, with continuous growth in infrastructure construction demand in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, leading to an increase in exports [1] - The overall industry fundamentals are showing a positive trend, with significant improvements in overall performance and structural opportunities existing in specific segments [1] Group 2 - The Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) tracks the China Securities Machine Tool Index (931866), which selects listed companies involved in machine tool manufacturing and key component supply from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - This index covers multiple fields including machinery, electronics, new energy, and robotics, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in China's machine tool industry [1]