一份文件透露，日本首相高市早苗领导的内阁计划公布一份始于明年4月的财政年度初始预算，其规模 将创历史新高，支出增幅超过通胀增速。 高市早苗周四表示，2026年4月开始的财年预算总额约为122.3万亿日元(合7860亿美元)，比本财年已拨 付的115.2万亿日元增加约6.3%，创下史上最大的初始预算纪录。 高市早苗称，为帮助筹措支出所需资金，政府计划通过新发国债筹集约29.6万亿日元。她补充道，预算 对发债的依赖度将从本年度的24.9%降至24.2%。 首相在与执政党及内阁成员的会议结束时表示："我相信这份预算在强化经济和确保财政可持续性之间 取得了平衡。" 预算规模创纪录之际，日本持续通胀导致各领域成本不断上升。日本的关键物价指标三年来始终保持在 2%或更高水平，从人工成本到日用品支出全面上涨。 预算增幅远高于通胀率，原因是日本面临人口老龄化带来的社会保障支出需求不断增长。根据透露的文 件，社会保障支出将从本财年的38.3万亿日元增至39.1万亿日元。更高的国防支出也推高了总体预算需 求，反映出人口结构压力和地缘政治紧张局势的加剧。 创纪录的初始预算也反映出高市早苗动用财政支持以巩固经济增长的意愿。她的政府上 ...

格隆汇12月25日｜日本首相高市早苗：日本需借助扩张性财政政策实现更强劲的经济增长。旨在降低债 务占GDP比率，赢得市场信任。将通过促进工资、消费和企业利润的良性循环来实现财政可持续性；将 把预算重点放在政策优先事项上，以确保市场信心。已决定推出资本支出税收减免，以助力关键供应链 建设。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在日本央行加息后日元仍持续走弱之际，日本财务大臣片山皋月(Satsuki Katayama)发出迄今为止对投机者最强烈的警告，称如果货币走 势与基本面不符，日本当局"有绝对的自由"采取大胆行动。 日本央行在上周五如期加息25个基点，将基准利率上调至30年来的最高水平0.75%。然而，由于交易员对日本央行未能就未来货币紧缩的时机给出明确指引 感到失望，日元在上周五大幅贬值。 与此同时，日本政府拟于本周五最终敲定2026财年预算草案。草案显示，该国2026财年年度预算总规模将首次突破122万亿日元，创下历史新高。支出增长 主要受两大因素驱动：一是社会福利成本持续攀升，二是政府为缓解生活成本上涨对家庭与企业造成的冲击，计划推出新一轮财政支持措施。 日本政府届时还将公布日本国债的发行计划。市场参与者越来越担心，日本当局可能提高十年期日本国债发行量，以帮助填补财政缺口。而随着利率上升， 日本庞大的公共债务融资成本显著增加，引发外界对日本政府财政可持续性的担忧。 日本财务省预计，日本10年期国债收益率到2028年将升至2.5%，债务利息将从去年的7.9万亿日元增加到2028年的16.1万亿日元。而根据 ...

全球资本流动与日元避险属性变化，进一步放大了汇价波动。日银加息推动国内收益率抬升，促使部分 海外资金回流，重塑全球债券配置格局，但尚未对美元资产构成显著冲击，呈现"日元回流与美元韧性 并存"的特征。值得注意的是，日元传统避险地位正面临挑战，日银政策正常化动摇了套息交易的盈利 基础，叠加财政风险担忧，其避险吸引力边际弱化。不过，由于市场在加息前已充分消化预期，此次政 策落地后未出现剧烈震荡，反而更多呈现结构性调整，短期资金在关键点位附近保持谨慎，加剧了美日 的震荡态势。 技术面与机构预判显示，美元兑日元中长期或逐步下行，但短期仍存震荡空间。瑞银此前预测，受日银 加息与美联储降息双重影响，美日到2026年6月可能跌至136，但短期受日本政局不确定性影响波动可能 加剧，建议在汇价升穿149时逢高卖出。从当前走势看，汇价在156关口附近反复拉锯，下方154.35的月 内低点构成短期支撑，上方157关口则面临阶段性抛压。动量指标显示，空头动能虽有释放，但受利差 与财政风险制约，尚未形成单边趋势，市场等待后续政策路径明确。 综合来看，美元兑日元当前的震荡格局，本质是日银加息落地后的政策消化、美日政策背离、日本财政 与货币 ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本国债周一继续下跌，原因是市场猜测日本央行可能需要更大幅度地提高利率，以遏制日元持续疲软。数据显示，日本十年期国债收 益率一度上涨7.5个基点，至2.095%，为1999年2月以来的最高水平;对货币政策预期敏感的日本两年期国债收益率则上涨3个基点，至1.12%，为1997年以来 的最高水平。 扩张性政策加剧财政状况担忧 日本政府债务利息未来三年或翻番 12月16日，日本国会批准了2025财年(2025年4月至2026年3月)补充预算案，财政支出规模高达18.3万亿日元，号称疫情后最大规模。这一预算案以应对物价 上涨、促进经济增长为名，但其超过60%的资金将通过新发行国债来筹措。这意味着，日本央行的加息将直接推高政府的偿债成本，让本已不堪重负的日本 财政雪上加霜。 短期和长期国债收益率的上升将加重日本政府的债务利息负担，而近期日本国债收益率的持续上扬令市场对日本政府债务利息负担将像雪球一样越滚越大的 担忧日益加剧。若照当前情况发展下去，日本国债利息支出将在三年内翻一番。日本财务省预计，日本10年期国债收益率到2028年将升至2.5%，债务利息 将从去年的7.9万亿日元增加到2028年的16 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need to address local fiscal difficulties in China, highlighting the contradiction between limited fiscal revenue and unlimited rigid expenditures, particularly at the grassroots level, which has led to a long-term "emergency fiscal phenomenon" [1][3][4]. Group 1: Current Fiscal Challenges - Local fiscal difficulties are characterized by insufficient liquidity and a stark contrast between limited fiscal income and increasing rigid expenditures [3][4]. - The fiscal situation is particularly dire in "medium regions," where areas like Liaoning face significant challenges despite being classified as eastern provinces [4][9]. - The "three guarantees" (ensuring livelihood, wages, and operational stability) are becoming increasingly difficult to maintain, with some regions transitioning to a "five guarantees" model that includes debt repayment and clearing arrears [7][8]. Group 2: Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - Local government revenues are under pressure due to declining tax income, reduced land transfer revenues, and limited non-tax income sources [11][16]. - For instance, a specific eastern county's tax revenue is projected to drop from 2.7 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.3 billion yuan in 2025, while expenditures related to social welfare are expected to rise by 300 million yuan during the same period [7][11]. - The reliance on land sales for revenue is diminishing, with land transfer income in 2025 expected to be 2.91 trillion yuan, a 10.7% decrease year-on-year [11]. Group 3: Debt and Financial Management - As of September 2025, the total local government debt reached 53.7 trillion yuan, with debt repayment pressures increasing [15][16]. - The article notes that the growth of debt repayment expenditures is outpacing overall expenditure growth, indicating a rising financial burden on local governments [14][15]. - The central government has initiated measures to alleviate local debt pressures, including a 500 billion yuan allocation to support local fiscal stability [17][18]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest a multi-faceted approach to address local fiscal challenges, including enhancing liquidity, allowing local governments more control over fiscal resources, and implementing debt restructuring measures [18][20]. - Recommendations also include increasing transfer payments, optimizing expenditure structures, and gradually reforming the fiscal system to create stable local tax sources [20][21]. - The need for tailored solutions based on regional economic conditions is emphasized, with different strategies required for eastern, central, and western regions [20].

Core Viewpoint - The French bond market is facing significant turmoil, with the 30-year bond yield reaching its highest level since 2009, driven by concerns over the country's fiscal outlook following the breakdown of budget negotiations [1][4]. Group 1: Market Impact - The yield on France's 30-year bonds rose by 7 basis points to 4.525%, while the 10-year bond yield increased by 6 basis points to 3.614%, nearing a nine-month high [1]. - The failure of budget negotiations has led to a loss of market confidence, posing a major setback for Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who had aimed to pass the national budget by year-end [5]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Implications - The breakdown of budget talks means the government will have to extend the budget until 2026, severely limiting its ability to reform public finances [4]. - The inability to pass new spending projects, including a proposed €6.5 billion increase in defense spending, highlights the constraints imposed by the budget extension mechanism [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The stalled budget will hinder France's efforts to reduce its fiscal deficit, with plans to bring the deficit below 5% of GDP by 2026 and to 3% by 2029, as required by the European Commission [6]. - The French central bank governor indicated that the budget extension would result in a deficit significantly above ideal levels, lacking any cost-saving or tax measures [6]. Group 4: Political Dynamics - Prime Minister Lecornu's failure to push the budget through is attributed to his decision to forgo a constitutional power that would allow the government to pass the budget without parliamentary vote, risking a vote of no confidence [7]. - Efforts to negotiate compromises with the center-left Socialist Party have not resolved the deadlock, as numerous amendments proposed by opposition parties have stalled the legislative process [7].

《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出："发挥积极财政政策作用， 增强财政可持续性。"这为做好今后5年财政改革发展工作指明了方向，提供了重要遵循。 "十四五"时期，随着我国经济实力和综合国力稳步提升，财政收支规模不断扩大，财政制度和各领域财 税支持体制机制日益完善，经济社会发展后劲和财政可持续性不断增强。未来5年，应对我国经济社会 发展面临的风险和挑战，需要保持合适的财政支出强度、发挥好积极财政政策作用，同时也对防范化解 风险、增强财政可持续性等提出新的更高要求。一方面，财政收入增长面临较多约束，传统重点税源行 业增长放缓，战略性新兴产业及数字经济等发展迅速，但对税收贡献相对较小。另一方面，财政支出需 求持续增长，促消费、扩投资、稳就业、保民生等重点领域刚性支出不减，财政收支平衡压力持续加 大。同时，重点领域还有风险隐患，确保财政经济平稳运行面临新的挑战。 下一步，增强财政可持续性，需要树牢系统观念，坚持底线思维，统筹稳增长、防风险等多重目标，综 合施策，多管齐下，推动建设稳固平衡强大的国家财政，为经济社会高质量发展提供坚实财政保障。 第一，加强财政宏观调控，不断做大经济财政"蛋糕" ...

据央视新闻消息，当地时间12月16日，日本国会参议院表决通过2025财年补充预算案，一般会计总额达到18.3万亿日元，相比2024财年补充预算 案增加31%。 补充预算案支出部分中，追加了1.1万亿日元防卫相关费用；连同9.9万亿日元的初始预算，2025财年防卫开支合计达到约11万亿日元，在GDP中 占比达到2%。 因财政来源存在巨大不足，日本政府将追加发行11.69万亿日元国债。 日本政府因财政来源存在巨大缺口，不得不通过大规模发债来填补预算。补充预算的通过进一步加重了日本已经高企的公共债务负担，可能对日 本国债市场和日元汇率产生压力。 美元/日元下跌0.26%，维持在154日元附近。 此举正值日本央行或将结束超宽松货币政策之际，最新调查显示，九成经济学家预测日本央行将在12月18日至19日的会议上加息25个基点，市场 定价也显示，12月加息25基点的概率约为90%。财政与货币政策方向的分化或将加剧市场对日本财政可持续性的关注。 截至发稿，日本10年期国债收益率报1.95%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates in its upcoming meeting, which contrasts with the easing policies of other major economies, raising concerns about macro liquidity tightening. However, the short-term impact of this meeting is anticipated to be limited [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy and Inflation - Japan's monetary policy has been misaligned with other major economies, leading to a significant interest rate differential, which peaked at nearly 560 basis points in 2023, contributing to the depreciation of the yen [2]. - The depreciation of the yen has increased inflationary pressures in Japan, necessitating a response from the Bank of Japan. The core CPI has remained above 2% since 2022, indicating the end of the deflationary era [3]. - The current fiscal reality, with Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 200%, limits the space for interest rate increases. The average interest payment ratio is beginning to rise, indicating a reduced tolerance for higher rates [3]. Group 2: Future Rate Hikes and Economic Outlook - The expected path for interest rate increases in Japan is gradual, with projections suggesting a rise from 0.5% to around 1% over the next 1-2 years. A more significant increase would require stronger economic growth and nominal income [4]. - The anticipated interest rate environment is characterized by a "misalignment" where the U.S. is expected to lower rates while Japan raises them, leading to a compression of the interest rate differential [5]. Group 3: Yen Carry Trade Dynamics - The yen carry trade is structured in layers, with the top layer consisting of short-term speculative positions, the middle layer involving significant leveraged positions in high-yield assets, and the bottom layer comprising long-term Japanese overseas asset holdings [7]. - The middle layer of high-leverage positions is most susceptible to market shocks, while the bottom layer is more stable and less likely to trigger immediate sell-offs [8]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Long-term Implications - The potential for a liquidity shock exists if the Bank of Japan's rate hikes are more aggressive than expected, particularly if accompanied by a weakening U.S. economy leading to rapid Fed rate cuts [9]. - Current macro conditions do not fully support a liquidity crisis, as the market has already adjusted to the anticipated rate hikes, and the concentration of high-leverage positions has decreased significantly [10]. - In the long term, the global capital flow direction may change, impacting the carry trade logic and leading to a potential revaluation of global duration assets [11].