Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government will maintain an active fiscal policy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period to stabilize the economy and ensure people's livelihoods, emphasizing the need for sufficient policy strength [2][3]. Fiscal Policy Strategy - The fiscal policy will focus on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, determining deficit rates and debt levels based on changing circumstances, and utilizing various tools such as budgets, taxes, government bonds, and transfer payments [2][3]. - The emphasis will shift from merely focusing on deficit rates to increasing expenditure growth, breaking the 3% deficit rate constraint to ensure necessary spending levels [3][5]. Economic Context - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by complex changes in both domestic and international environments, including external instability and internal economic pressures [3]. - Despite challenges, China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with significant potential for long-term growth, although risks in certain sectors have not yet cleared [3]. Budget Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure growth rates from 2020 to 2024 are projected at 2.8%, 0.3%, 6.1%, 5.4%, and 3.6%, with a growth rate of 3.1% in the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. - The total budget for 2025 is expected to approach 30 trillion yuan [5]. Debt and Fiscal Space - China's government debt ratio is projected to be 68.7% in 2024, significantly lower than that of major economies and emerging markets, indicating substantial room for further borrowing [5]. - The central government has considerable borrowing and deficit space, allowing for future fiscal policy initiatives [5]. Targeted Support Areas - The fiscal policy will prioritize high-quality development, focusing on key areas such as modern industrial systems, technology, education, social security, agriculture, and environmental protection [5][6]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests enhancing support for major national strategic tasks and basic livelihood financing, increasing the proportion of government investment in public services, and supporting high-tech enterprises [5][6]. Policy Coordination - There will be an emphasis on policy coordination, ensuring that fiscal policies align with monetary, industrial, and regional policies to create a synergistic effect for high-quality development [6].

英国政府加税计划"急转弯"加剧市场不确定性 中新社伦敦11月14日电 (欧阳开宇 刘施岑)在即将公布年度预算案前夕，英国政府突然撤回原拟提升所 得税的计划，此临时调整令投资者对未来财政路径与经济前景更加谨慎。 英国财政大臣里夫斯14日确认，政府不会在本轮预算案中实施提高所得税税率的措施。此前，外界普遍 预期新政府为弥补财政缺口，可能在预算案中提出增税方案。里夫斯表示，政府在与多部门协商后，决 定"采取更稳妥的方式"，并将在预算案中推出"更公平、更可持续"的替代措施，以确保经济增长与财政 责任能够并行。 消息引发金融市场波动。分析人士指出，英国政府政策信号反复加剧市场不确定性，使投资者担心财政 整固措施可能被进一步推迟，从而加重英国已处高位的债务压力。 根据英国官方与独立机构估算，政府面临约300亿英镑(约2801亿元人民币)的预算缺口。经济学者认 为，撤回增税计划后，政府可能寻求削减支出、调整企业税制或出售国有资产等方式填补缺口，但这些 做法均存在政治与操作层面阻力。市场普遍关心预算案将提出何种组合政策，以保持财政可持续性，同 时避免打压本已疲弱的经济增长。 当前，英国经济面临多重挑战，包括投资低迷、生产率增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy in promoting economic growth, structural adjustment, and risk prevention while ensuring fiscal sustainability [1][3]. Fiscal Policy and Economic Development - Fiscal policy will focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting high-level technological self-reliance, and improving people's livelihoods during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [2][4]. - The government aims to enhance fiscal sustainability while maintaining an active fiscal stance, balancing development and security, efficiency and equity, and short-term and long-term goals [1][3]. Major Tasks and Strategic Goals - Key tasks include building a modern industrial system, accelerating technological self-reliance, optimizing productivity layout, and promoting green transformation [3][4]. - Significant public investment is required for these tasks, which often have strong externalities and long return cycles, necessitating government leadership [3]. Technological Modernization and Support - The plan highlights the importance of fiscal support for technological modernization, focusing on basic research and key core technology breakthroughs [4]. - The strategy includes using various fiscal tools to optimize traditional industries and foster emerging sectors [4][5]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The emphasis is on shifting fiscal support from supply-side policies to demand-side initiatives, enhancing social welfare for households [4][5]. - The goal is to create a dynamic balance where new demand leads to new supply and vice versa, supporting a new development pattern [5]. Fiscal Sustainability and Taxation - The plan calls for enhancing fiscal sustainability through structural adjustments in tax policies, including improving local tax systems and maintaining reasonable macro tax burdens [7][8]. - Experts suggest optimizing existing tax reduction policies for precision and efficiency, particularly for technology innovation and small enterprises [7]. Local Government Debt Management - The government aims to prevent and mitigate local government debt risks by implementing a comprehensive debt management strategy and ensuring no new hidden debts are created [8]. - A unified long-term regulatory system for local government debt is to be established, with strict accountability for violations [8].

Core Points - South Africa's Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced a downward revision of the country's 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.2%, influenced by domestic and international factors such as trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The new inflation target has been set at 3% with a 1% fluctuation range, replacing the previous target of 3% to 6%, to better respond to unexpected inflation shocks [1] - The government aims to stabilize public debt at 77.9% of GDP by the 2025/26 fiscal year, marking the first time since the 2008 financial crisis that public debt as a percentage of GDP will not increase [1] Economic Strategy - Structural reforms, particularly in the energy and logistics sectors, are deemed crucial for enhancing economic growth [2] - The strategy for achieving faster growth and healthier finances is based on four pillars: maintaining macroeconomic stability, implementing structural reforms, enhancing national capacity, and supporting infrastructure development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in promoting economic balance and structural optimization during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the need for sustainable fiscal practices and effective governance [1][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Direction - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests a continuation of proactive fiscal policies to support major national strategic tasks and ensure basic livelihood [1][2]. - Experts advocate for an increase in fiscal spending, optimization of expenditure schedules, and innovation in policy tools to stimulate total demand and stabilize economic growth expectations [2][3]. Group 2: Investment and Spending Efficiency - The article stresses the need to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies and improve the efficiency of fund utilization by optimizing the fiscal expenditure structure [2][3]. - It is recommended to focus fiscal resources on public sectors and areas with high social benefits, such as healthcare, education, and digital economy infrastructure [3][4]. Group 3: Sustainable Fiscal Practices - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as crucial for achieving socialist modernization, necessitating a deeper reform of the fiscal and tax system to enhance sustainability [4][5]. - Experts suggest implementing zero-based budgeting reforms to improve the scientific and precise nature of budget preparation, thereby increasing budget fund efficiency [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden level while ensuring fiscal sustainability and health, highlighting the importance of tax reform and management in the context of economic governance [2][12]. Tax Burden and Fiscal Policy - Maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden requires finding increments from fair tax burdens, identifying new tax sources, standardizing tax incentives, and adapting to new situations to accelerate tax system construction and improve tax collection [5][11]. - The macro tax burden has been decreasing from 20.36% of GDP in 2017 to an estimated 16.29% in 2024, indicating a trend of significant tax reductions [4][11]. Tax System Reform - The key directions for tax reform include improving local taxes and direct tax systems, refining income tax policies, and standardizing tax incentives to ensure a fair tax burden [2][12]. - The article stresses the importance of adapting tax policies to the changing economic landscape, particularly as new economic drivers emerge [7][10]. Fiscal Management and Sustainability - The article discusses the need for cautious use of fiscal policy space to avoid excessive reliance on debt due to high spending demands and tax reductions [3][11]. - It highlights the importance of optimizing expenditure structures to ensure that funds are allocated to critical areas, particularly in social welfare [11][12]. Zero-Based Budgeting - The implementation of zero-based budgeting is seen as a way to enhance the efficiency of fiscal funds and improve overall fiscal policy effectiveness [15]. - This approach allows for a reassessment of spending priorities, ensuring that funds are directed towards high-performance projects while potentially cutting low-performance expenditures [15]. Government Investment Planning - The introduction of a comprehensive government investment plan aims to clarify government investment accounts and improve management of fiscal resources [16]. - This initiative seeks to address issues of fragmented funding and enhance the overall efficiency of government investments [16]. Economic Growth and Market Vitality - The article underscores the importance of economic growth and market vitality in addressing fiscal challenges, advocating for policies that create a conducive environment for economic expansion [17][18]. - It suggests that enhancing market vitality is crucial for resolving various fiscal issues, emphasizing the need for supportive policies that facilitate economic development [17][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the cautious use of fiscal policy space while ensuring fiscal sustainability and health development, as highlighted by Yang Zhiyong, the director of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences [1][9] - The "Suggestions" document released on October 28 outlines the importance of active fiscal policy and fiscal sustainability as fundamental requirements for better governance during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][10] - Key directions for tax reform include improving local taxes, direct tax systems, and standardizing tax incentives while maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden level [1][2][4] Group 2 - Maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden requires finding increments from fair tax burdens, exploring new tax sources, standardizing tax incentives, and accelerating tax system construction [2][4] - The decline in traditional economic tax sources necessitates timely tax system reforms to effectively convert new economic sources into tax revenue [2][6] - The "Suggestions" also mention strengthening fiscal scientific management, deepening zero-based budgeting reforms, and enhancing local financial autonomy [2][11] Group 3 - The distinction between "maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden" and "stabilizing macro tax burden" lies in aligning tax burden levels with fiscal functions and governance needs [3][4] - From 2017 to 2024, the macro tax burden has been decreasing, with fiscal revenue as a percentage of GDP dropping from 20.36% to 16.29% [3][4] - The need for a balanced approach between expenditure demands and taxpayers' capacity is crucial for determining a reasonable macro tax burden [3][4] Group 4 - The necessity of optimizing expenditure structure while maintaining expenditure intensity is highlighted, with a significant portion of fiscal spending directed towards people's livelihoods [10][11] - The "Suggestions" propose a comprehensive government investment plan to enhance clarity and management of government investments, addressing issues of fragmented fiscal resources [14][15] - The focus on economic growth and market vitality is essential for addressing fiscal challenges and ensuring a conducive policy environment for economic development [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of deepening the fiscal and tax system reform in China as a fundamental requirement for achieving high-quality development and advancing the modernization of the country [2][3][4]. Group 1: Significance of Fiscal and Tax Reform - Deepening fiscal and tax system reform is crucial for modernizing the national governance system and enhancing governance capabilities [2]. - The reform is seen as a key measure to address the changing social contradictions and the increasing public demand for economic efficiency, green development, social equity, and regional balance [3][4]. - The establishment of a modern fiscal system is essential for ensuring stable financial support for government activities and optimizing resource allocation [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Challenges - China's GDP for 2024 is projected to be 134.91 trillion yuan, with the secondary and tertiary industries accounting for 36.5% and 56.7% of GDP, respectively [3]. - The fiscal system faces challenges such as income distribution disparities and the need for a more equitable tax system to support common prosperity [6]. - The aging population is expected to reach 22% by the end of 2024, necessitating adjustments in the fiscal operation model to accommodate demographic changes [6]. Group 3: Principles for Reform - The reform should enhance fiscal sustainability, ensuring stable revenue to support necessary government expenditures [7]. - Improving economic efficiency is vital, with a focus on reducing resource misallocation and promoting high-quality economic development [7]. - Maintaining social equity through tax system optimization and increased investment in education, healthcare, and social security is essential [8]. Group 4: Key Focus Areas for Implementation - Establishing a comprehensive, transparent, and scientifically standardized budget system is critical for effective governance and resource allocation [9]. - Reforming the tax system to adapt to new economic realities, including the digital economy, is necessary for maintaining fiscal health [10]. - Strengthening the fiscal relationship between central and local governments to alleviate financial pressures on local authorities is a priority [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on enhancing public welfare and effective market-government interaction [1][3][4] - The article outlines key measures for proactive fiscal policy, including expanding domestic demand, supporting technological self-reliance, and ensuring high-quality development while improving people's livelihoods [1][4][6] - The establishment of the Debt Management Department within the Ministry of Finance signifies a shift towards systematic governance of government debt, integrating various debt management functions for better oversight [2][7] Group 2 - The article discusses the need for a balanced approach to fiscal policy, highlighting the challenges of maintaining fiscal sustainability amid rising expenditure demands and constrained revenue growth [4][5][8] - It emphasizes the importance of preventing and resolving local government debt risks, advocating for a disciplined approach to managing hidden debts and optimizing debt structures [6][9] - The article suggests that achieving the goal of eliminating hidden debts by 2028 is feasible, with key years identified for addressing local debt risks and improving the overall debt management framework [9][10]

Core Insights - Major economies are facing significant challenges due to high government debt and fiscal consolidation difficulties, leading to concerns about fiscal sustainability and currency credibility [1][2][4] - Recent downgrades in sovereign credit ratings for countries like the US and France highlight the deteriorating public finances and governance standards [1][2] - The reliance on debt-driven growth has created a "growth illusion," masking fundamental issues of insufficient long-term growth potential [3][4] Economic Context - The US sovereign credit rating was downgraded from AA to AA- by S&P, with projections indicating that government debt as a percentage of GDP could rise to 143.4% by 2030 [1] - France's credit rating outlook was downgraded to negative due to political instability and challenges in implementing structural reforms, with three major rating agencies lowering its rating to A+ [2] - Other developed economies, including Japan and the UK, are also experiencing fiscal challenges, pointing to a common issue of rising debt levels [2][4] Debt Dynamics - The path dependency of debt-driven economic models has led to excessive debt accumulation, with many economies overestimating the effectiveness of stimulus policies [3][4] - Aging populations and high welfare spending create rigid fiscal pressures, making it difficult for governments to reduce deficits without facing political backlash [3][4] - The combination of fiscal stimulus, aging demographics, and a prolonged low-interest-rate environment has contributed to the continuous rise in global government debt [3][4] Future Outlook - Short-term fiscal deficits are likely to persist due to rising interest and welfare expenditures, while long-term pressures from aging populations and technological changes may exacerbate fiscal challenges [4] - If debt risks escalate, it could lead to significant global economic repercussions, including rising bond yields and potential recessions [4][5] - Historical solutions to public debt crises include competitive devaluation, high inflation, debt restructuring, and fiscal tightening, though these often face social resistance [5]