1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT US soybean July contract rose 10.5 to close at 1068.5 cents per bushel, up 0.99%; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 31 to close at 3041 yuan per ton, up 1.03%; the South China soybean meal spot rose 60 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, up 2.13%; the rapeseed meal 09 contract rose 66 to close at 2674 yuan per ton, up 2.53%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot rose 80 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, up 3.23% [2][5]. - The US soybean fluctuated and declined during the week and then closed sharply higher. The USDA report did not adjust the US soybean balance sheet. The soybean production in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/2025 season remained unchanged. The precipitation forecast in the Midwest increased, the weather in the production areas was good, and the US soybean export sales were lower than expected, causing the US soybean to decline. On Friday, the US Environmental Protection Agency proposed to increase the future biodiesel usage, and the US soybean oil hit the daily limit, driving the US soybean to rise sharply. The China - US economic and trade consultation meeting ended, and the optimistic trade sentiment boosted. Long - positions continued to increase, but the upward momentum weakened. There is an expected supply shortage of US soybeans in the domestic fourth quarter, which supports the prices [2][5]. - The precipitation forecast in the US soybean production areas increases and is higher than the average level, which is beneficial to the early growth and development of soybeans, and the weather is normal. China and the US have reached a framework agreement, waiting for details. China has not purchased new - season US soybeans, and the far - month contracts are supported by the expected supply shortage. The US biodiesel policy exceeds expectations and proposes to restrict imports, and the US soybean oil hitting the daily limit supports the sharp rise of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal inventory continues to rise, and the spot supply is still available. With the expected supply shortage in the far - month, the downward support for the Dalian soybean meal is strong. In the short term, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and strengthen [2][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 6/13 | 6/6 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1068.50 | 1058.00 | 10.50 | 0.99% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 454.00 | 447.00 | 7.00 | 1.57% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 453.00 | 457.00 | - 4.00 | - 0.88% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Disk | 129.38 | 81.46 | 47.93 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3041.00 | 3010.00 | 31.00 | 1.03% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2674.00 | 2608.00 | 66.00 | 2.53% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 367.00 | 402.00 | - 35.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2860.00 | 2840.00 | 20.00 | 0.70% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2880.00 | 2820.00 | 60.00 | 2.13% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 161.00 | - 190.00 | 29.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The USDA report shows that the expected ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 295 million bushels, the same as the May expectation. The soybean production in Argentina in the 2024/2025 season remains at 49 million tons, and that in Brazil remains at 169 million tons. The report is overall neutral [6]. - As of the week ending June 8, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations, up from 67% the previous week and lower than 72% in the same period last year. The planting progress was 90%, lower than the expected 91%, up from 84% the previous week and higher than 86% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 88%. The emergence rate was 75%, up from 63% the previous week, higher than 68% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 72%. As of the week ending June 10, 2025, about 13% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, down from 16% the previous week and higher than 1% in the same period last year [6]. - As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 547,000 tons, higher than the market forecast of 155,000 - 400,000 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume is 45.19 million tons, compared with 40.54 million tons in the same period of the previous crop year. The net export sales of US soybeans in the current year increased by 61,000 tons, compared with 194,000 tons the previous week. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season is 48.71 million tons, with a sales progress of 96.8%, compared with 94.6% in the same period last year. The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in the current week was 58,000 tons, and the cumulative sales volume in this season is 1.118 million tons, compared with 1.04 million tons in the same period last year. China did not purchase old - season or new - season US soybeans in the current week, and the cumulative purchase volume of US soybeans by China in the 2024/2025 season remains at 22.48 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending June 6, 2025, the gross profit of US soybean crushing was 1.49 US dollars per bushel, down from 1.9 US dollars per bushel the previous week. The FOB price of soybean oil in central Illinois was 46.23 cents per pound, down from 47.97 cents per pound the previous week. The wholesale price of 48% soybean meal in central Illinois was 290.85 US dollars per short ton, up from 290.15 US dollars per short ton the previous week. The truck price of No. 1 yellow soybeans in central Illinois was 10.73 US dollars per bushel, up from 10.51 US dollars per bushel the previous week [8]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimates that the Brazilian soybean export volume in June will reach 14.08 million tons, an increase from the previous week's estimate of 12.55 million tons, compared with 13.83 million tons in the same period last year. The sales progress of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season in Mato Grosso state is 76.02%, compared with 77.9% in the same period last year. The sales progress of the 2025/2026 season soybean crop is 14.15%, lower than the five - year average of 25% and 16.51% in the same period last year [8]. - According to the report of the Buenos Aires Exchange, as of the week ending June 11, 2025, the soybean harvest progress in Argentina was 93.2%, up from 88.7% the previous week and lower than 96% in the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending June 6, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.1029 million tons, an increase of 274,100 tons from the previous week and 1.2088 million tons from the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons, an increase of 84,500 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 507,000 tons from the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 5.4305 million tons, an increase of 1.7376 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 10 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 7.462 million tons, an increase of 408,000 tons from the previous week and 1.0591 million tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the daily average trading volume of national soybean meal was 347,700 tons, including 90,620 tons of spot trading and 257,100 tons of forward trading, compared with 119,400 tons the previous week. The daily average picking - up volume of soybean meal was 194,760 tons, down from 201,200 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, up from 2.2446 million tons the previous week. The soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 6.83 days, up from 6.31 days the previous week [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that the soybean production in Argentina in the 2024/25 season will be 48.5 million tons. As of the end of May, the soybean harvest rate was 80.7%, and the early - sown soybean harvest was 86% complete. Due to recent precipitation, the soybean harvest in the northern part of Buenos Aires was the slowest. The estimated soybean yield is 3,090 kg per hectare (46.0 bushels per acre), with a yield range of 1,200 - 3,740 kg per hectare (17.8 - 55.7 bushels per acre) [11]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association maintains the forecast of Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season at 169.7 million tons, the soybean export volume at 108.2 million tons, the soybean oil production at 11.45 million tons, the soybean crushing volume at 57.5 million tons, the soybean oil export volume at 1.4 million tons, the soybean meal production at 44.1 million tons, and the soybean meal export volume at 23.6 million tons [11]. - The sales rate of the 2025/26 season soybean crop in Mato Grosso state has reached 14.15%, lower than the five - year average of about 25% and 16.51% in the same period last year. The report estimates that the soybean production in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season may reach 47.18 million tons. The sales rate of the 2024/25 season soybean crop in Mato Grosso state has reached 76%, lower than 77.90% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 82.39% [12]. - Affected by recent favorable rainfall, the estimated rapeseed production in the 27 EU countries and the UK in the 2025/26 season remains at 20.4 million tons, but the drought risk in Poland still exists. According to the short - term weather forecast, different weather patterns will appear in the next 10 days. Eastern and central Europe will face colder temperatures, while western/southern Europe will remain warm. Rainfall is expected only in Spain and the UK, and the rest of the countries are expected to return to a dry weather pattern, increasing drought concerns [12]. - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's National Commodity Supply Company estimates that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season will reach 169.6058 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.8845 million tons (14.8%) and a month - on - month increase of 1.264 million tons (0.8%). The sown area is expected to reach 47.6198 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.4702 million hectares (3.2%) and a month - on - month increase of 7,100 hectares. The estimated soybean yield is 3.56 tons per hectare, a year - on - year increase of 360.7 kg per hectare (11.3%) and a month - on - month increase of 26 kg per hectare (0.7%) [13]. - A consulting agency estimates that the rapeseed production in Canada in the 2025/26 season will be 18.2 million tons, with an estimated range of 16.5 - 20.1 million tons, almost the same as the previous estimate of 18 million tons (17.2 - 18.9 million tons). In the past two weeks, the main rapeseed - producing areas in the southern prairies of Canada have observed a precipitation shortage of about 33 mm, and the temperature is higher than the average level. These conditions have raised concerns about the early soil moisture conditions of rapeseed. Looking forward, the weather forecast for the next 10 days shows that the southern prairie region of Canada will have mild temperatures, and moderate rainfall is expected in Saskatchewan and Alberta, which may help relieve the current drought and support crop growth. In Manitoba, the drought is expected to continue, with a possible precipitation shortage of 35 mm [14].

Report Summary Core Views - The soybean market is complex. US soybean prices may form a bottom - building process in the new year, but breaking through the bottom range requires further drivers. Domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but inventory is currently low due to delayed startup. For 09 contract soybean meal, it is in a situation where external costs are likely to rise and domestic pressure is gradually increasing [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market shows that Malaysian palm oil production and exports increased in May. If palm oil production continues to recover rapidly, oil prices will face pressure. The overall trend of oils is expected to be volatile [7][8][9]. - The sugar market indicates that the most tense supply stage in the international market may have passed. With the increase in future imports, the domestic sugar price is likely to weaken [11][12]. - The cotton market suggests that the fundamental situation of cotton has slightly improved, but the overall commodity market sentiment is bearish, and short - term cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [14][15][16]. - The egg market has stable supply, and the current old - hen culling is in the initial stage. It is difficult to offset the pressure of new production and the off - season consumption. The short - term egg price is expected to be weakly stable [17][18]. - The pig market has sufficient supply and weak downstream demand. In the short term, the downward space of spot and futures prices is limited, and the long - term strategy is to sell on rallies [20][21]. Trading Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: For 09 and other far - month soybean meal contracts, when the price is at the lower cost range, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market; when it is at the upper range, focus on domestic pressure and whether the bullish factors have been fully priced in [5]. - **Oils**: Given the bearish and bullish factors, it is expected that the oils will mainly fluctuate [9]. - **Sugar**: Considering the international and domestic situations, the future sugar price is likely to decline [12]. - **Cotton**: It is expected that short - term cotton prices will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Eggs**: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies for near - month contracts. For medium - and long - term contracts, wait for the accumulation of contradictions [18]. - **Pigs**: Do not go long in the short term, and there is no need to chase short positions. Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the long term [21]. Important Information - **Soybean and Soybean Meal** - US soybean prices rose slightly on Thursday. The US - China presidential call brought optimistic trade sentiment, and good planting and weather conditions limited the increase. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with high supply due to high crushing volume [2]. - In the next two weeks, rainfall in most US soybean - producing areas will be favorable, but there will be less rainfall in Iowa and the north. Brazilian soybean premiums have increased recently, offsetting the decline in US soybean prices, and the cost of imported soybeans remains stable [3]. - The area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season will decrease, and the total output may be easily reduced due to yield fluctuations [3]. - **Oils** - From May 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.53%, and exports are expected to increase by 17.9% [7]. - A commodity research institution estimates that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season will be 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's will be 19 million tons [7]. - The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil in May indicates a slight inventory build - up, but low inventories in Indonesia, India, and China provide some support for palm oil prices. If production continues to recover rapidly, oil prices will face pressure [8]. - **Sugar** - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly. The closing price of the September contract was 5,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous trading day [11]. - In May, China's single - month sugar sales reached 869,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22,900 tons; the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons; the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 72.69%, a year - on - year increase of 6.52 percentage points [11]. - **Cotton** - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price showed a weak oscillation. The closing price of the September contract was 13,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day [14]. - As of June 1, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 66%, an increase of 14 percentage points from the previous week, slightly lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The budding rate was 8%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous week, maintaining a normal level [14]. - **Eggs** - The national egg prices were mostly stable, with individual minor adjustments. The average price in the main production areas remained at 2.84 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and the digestion speed in some downstream markets slowed down slightly. Most areas had little inventory pressure [17]. - **Pigs** - Domestic pig prices mainly fell. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.12 yuan to 14.17 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped by 0.1 yuan to 14.01 yuan/kg. Market supply is sufficient, and downstream demand support is average [20].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a slight increase on Friday, raising questions about whether optimistic trade sentiments can offset the impact of Iranian supply returning to the market [1] Group 1 - Oil prices are under scrutiny as they may record a weekly gain, depending on market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices reflects a shift in market sentiment and investor risk appetite, driven by rising optimism in global trade and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1][5]. Market Performance - Spot gold prices fell over 2% on Wednesday, reaching a low of $3181.62 per ounce, the lowest level since April 11, with intraday lows hitting $3174.62 [3]. - Other precious metals also experienced declines: silver dropped 1.9% to $32.25 per ounce, platinum fell 0.6% to $982.05 per ounce, and palladium decreased 0.3% to $954.36 per ounce, indicating overall pressure in the precious metals market [3]. Trade Sentiment - The increase in trade optimism has significantly boosted market risk appetite, leading investors to shift funds from traditional safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets such as stocks and commodities [3][4]. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market participants are awaiting the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments, with expectations that a higher-than-expected PPI could reinforce the likelihood of interest rate hikes, further pressuring gold prices [4]. Technical Analysis - The recent drop in gold prices may be seen as a correction following a period of significant increases driven by global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [4]. - The relative strength of the U.S. dollar has negatively impacted gold prices, as gold is priced in dollars, making it less attractive to investors holding other currencies [4]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent price drop, analysts believe that gold's long-term value as a safe-haven asset remains intact due to ongoing global economic recovery uncertainties and geopolitical risks [4][5]. - The continued implementation of loose monetary policies by global central banks may enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [4].

Group 1 - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to improved global trade relations, particularly between the US and China, which has increased market risk appetite and led investors to move away from safe-haven assets like gold [1][2] - Gold prices fell over 2% on May 15, reaching a low of $3167.94 per ounce, marking the lowest level since April 10, with a closing price of $3177.32 per ounce [1][2] - The recent adjustment in gold prices is seen as a technical correction following a significant increase, with gold having reached a historical high of $3500.05 last month and a year-to-date increase of 21.3% [1][2] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks remain, particularly in the context of slow trade negotiations between the EU and the US, which could potentially revive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The upcoming release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data is crucial for investors to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy direction [2] - The gold market is expected to maintain high volatility due to the interplay of trade tensions, monetary policy, and economic data [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with resistance at $3200 and potential targets for further declines at $3168 and $3150 [4][5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on selling during rebounds, with specific price levels identified for entry and exit points [5][6] - The market sentiment is currently leaning towards a bearish outlook, with any upward movement viewed as an opportunity to sell [4][5]

Group 1 - The core message of the news is that the recent suspension of tariffs between the US and China has led to a significant market rally, with the S&P 500 index rising 3.3% this week, erasing all losses for the year [1][3] - The US has canceled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China has reciprocated with a similar cancellation, which has sparked a shift in market sentiment and forced investors to reassess their positions [1][4] - The market's reaction has resulted in a strong rebound in US stocks and the dollar, while traditional safe-haven assets like gold have seen a decline [1][5] Group 2 - Institutional investors who had taken a cautious stance on US assets are facing significant losses due to the unexpected market shift, leading to forced liquidation of short positions [3][4] - Retail investors have benefited from the market's dramatic turnaround, with the Nasdaq Composite index surging nearly 30% since the announcement of the tariffs [5][6] - Some asset management firms caution that the current optimism regarding trade may be overdone, suggesting that the potential economic impacts of the trade war have not yet been fully realized [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The market needs to believe in the sustainability of trade optimism for the US dollar to recover to levels seen before the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2 [1] Group 1 - The report by Kyle Chapman from Ballinger Group emphasizes the necessity of further trade progress for the US dollar's rebound [1]

马士基股价上涨12%，因受贸易乐观情绪影响。 ...