【文/观察者网 熊超然】今年8月，美国总统特朗普曾扬言要对进口半导体征收约100%的关税，仅豁免 在美国生产或承诺在美国生产的企业。 当地时间11月19日，路透社援引美国官员的一番私下说法独家报道称，虽然这项政策此前被视为特朗普 经济议程中的核心内容，但美方可能不会很快征收曾承诺过的半导体关税。据两名直接了解此事的人士 和一名听取了相关谈话的人士透露，过去几天，美国官员们已向政府和私营企业的利益相关方传达了这 些信息。 报道援引另外一名关注此事的人士称，特朗普政府正在采取"更为谨慎的态度"，以避免激怒中国。还有 两名知情人士则说，特朗普的幕僚团队正"谨慎对待"半导体关税问题，因为他们正努力避免与中方在贸 易问题上发生冲突，以免重燃针锋相对的贸易战，甚至扰乱到关键稀土矿物的流通。 当时，美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）指出，250%是特朗普迄今为止发出的最高关税税率威 胁，不过这位美国总统此前也曾屡次威胁要加征关税，但后来又改变了政策，因此无法保证他最终是否 会将药品关税税率定在250%。 不过，这些人士也提醒称，在特朗普政府最终批准之前，任何决定都不是最终决定，美方仍随时可能征 收高达三位数关税。 当地时 ...

此前，在美国新一季大豆出口开启后，相当长的一段时间内未有对华销售或出货的记录，《纽约时报》 9月底更是指出，自今年5月以来，中方没有购买过任何美国大豆。 咨询公司AgResource称，中国进口商已从美国购入7到10船大豆，其中一些将在明年1月装运，另一些则 计划在明年6月或更晚装运。 彭博社指出，大豆一直是中美贸易紧张局势的焦点议题，中国则是世界上最大的大豆进口国，中方暂停 采购美国大豆的做法，给美国种植户带来了压力，也让中方在关税博弈中占据了关键优势。 美国威斯康星州沃尔沃斯，田间正在收割的大豆。IC photo 【文/观察者网 熊超然】"受中国加大大豆采购力度迹象的提振，大豆期货价格大幅上涨，此前这一采购 一度停滞，如今给美国农民带来了希望。" 彭博社当地时间11月17日报道称，美国芝加哥期货交易所的大豆期货价格当天一度上涨3.2%，创下17 个月以来的新高。此前，美国总统特朗普曾于当地时间11月14日告诉记者，"中方正在采购大豆"，并迫 不及待地称，"这些采购可能在（明年）春季之前就开始"。 美国财政部长贝森特前一天在接受福克斯新闻网采访时则称，他相信中方会履行协议。"他们已经开始 购买大豆了，"他说 ...

欧盟上个月公布了计划，打算将现有的外国钢铁免关税配额削减近一半，并将超出配额的征税提高一倍 至50%。 知情人士表示，英国政府还在研究如何加速取代其自身的钢铁保障措施并收紧进口配额。这些现行措施 将于六月到期。 英国政府在一份声明中表示："本届政府已通过确保出口商优先进入美国市场，展现了对钢铁行业的承 诺，我们将继续探索更强有力的贸易措施，以保护我们的钢铁生产商免受不公平行为的影响，同时重申 了解决该行业产能过剩问题的愿望。在欧盟最近宣布措施后，我们将继续与其进行接触。" 沪金核心波动区间或在910-930元/克，沪金则需守住915元/克支撑位，否则可能引发短期回调。关注沪 金920元/克的突破情况，结合美元指数波动调整头寸，短期把握国内市场强势行情，长期警惕政策预期 反转风险。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日周二（11月18日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于920附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂922.76元/克， 跌幅0.87%，最高触及935.52元/克，最低下探919.34元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 在英国首相斯塔默无法达成协议以减轻欧盟拟议的 ...

在近期选举传递出生活成本的警示信号后，特朗普政府正紧急调整政策方向，将抑制物价作为核心议程。白宫计划通过降低食品关税、发放直接补 贴及反垄断调查等一系列措施缓解通胀压力，此举不仅标志其贸易强硬立场可能出现重大逆转，更被市场解读为"贸易战终结"的关键信号。 在近期选举对共和党发出关于生活成本的"警示信号"后， 特朗普政府正紧急转向，将抑制消费者价格作为其核心政策议程。 这一转变不仅可能重 塑美国的国内经济政策，更预示着特朗普标志性的贸易强硬立场或将出现重大逆转。 据《华尔街日报》报道，白宫正迅速制定一系列旨在为消费者降价的计划。最新动态显示，特朗普和他的顾问们正在讨论的措施包括向美国人提 供2000美元或更多的直接补贴、对肉类包装公司展开反垄断调查，以及一项旨在降低咖啡、水果等大众消费品关税的新计划。 这一系列动作的核心，是降低关税。 上周五，美国政府宣布将降低牛肉、咖啡、坚果、香料等数十种农产品和食品的关税，这标志着特朗普政府 在贸易政策上的显著转变。 此举被视为白宫为应对选民对高昂生活成本日益增长的不满，而采取的最直接、有力的工具之一。 市场的目光已迅速聚焦于此。 美银的分析报告指出，华盛顿对"可负担性"问 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent interactions between the U.S. and China have led to China gaining two significant advantages in understanding U.S. President Trump's negotiation style and the potential for negotiations on previously deemed non-negotiable issues like chip controls [1][2][3] - The first key outcome for China is the understanding of Trump's tendency to compromise under pressure, which allows China to leverage this knowledge in future negotiations [2][3] - The second key outcome is the U.S. agreement not to impose new export controls or additional national security measures against China, marking a significant breakthrough for China in negotiations [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the context of U.S.-China relations, highlighting that both countries have returned to a state similar to earlier this year, with the U.S. significantly reducing tariffs while China has paused its rare earth supply restrictions [1][3] - It emphasizes that the Biden administration aims to manage competition with China without escalating into conflict, maintaining communication channels and creating opportunities for cooperation on major issues [4] - The article also critiques Trump's approach to international relations, suggesting that his strategies may undermine U.S. credibility and inadvertently strengthen China's diplomatic position [4]

Core Insights - The report by Hanya Investment focuses on the evolution of global trade patterns, central bank interest rate cuts, and policy stimulus, reviewing market performance in Q3 2025 and predicting trends for Q4 2025 and 2026 [1] Market Performance Overview - Global markets experienced a broad rally in Q3 2025, driven by the extension of the US-China trade truce, optimism surrounding AI, and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [7] - The S&P 500 index rose by 7.8%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 11.2%. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets with a 10.9% rise, led by China's A-shares (+20.8%) and Taiwan (+14.7%), while India saw a decline of 6.6% [7][8] - Fixed income markets showed volatility, with US Treasury yields declining across the board, and the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.16%. Emerging market dollar bonds led with a 4.8% increase [10] - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index rose by 0.9% but was down 9.9% year-to-date. The Chinese yuan and Hong Kong dollar performed well, while the New Taiwan dollar and South Korean won depreciated significantly [11] Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook indicates differentiated growth, with the US and East Asian economies expected to slow down in Q4 2025 and into H1 2026. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December [2][16] - China's economic growth may decline due to a slowdown in credit growth, with GDP growth targets for 2026 set between 4.5% and 5%. New stimulus policies will focus on consumer subsidies and technology investments [17] - India's economy is showing signs of recovery, supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus, while ASEAN economies are relying on domestic demand and policy easing to counteract growth slowdowns [2][16] Monetary Policy and Currency Outlook - The monetary policy environment is entering a loosening phase, with the Federal Reserve expected to continue rate cuts and end quantitative tightening. Other Asian central banks, including those in China and India, are also expected to lower rates [21] - The US dollar is projected to depreciate by 3%-5% in 2026, while the Chinese yuan may appreciate moderately. Other Asian currencies are expected to remain weak until a clear trend of dollar depreciation emerges [2][21] Asset Allocation Strategy - The report suggests a short-term optimistic stance on risk assets, particularly in emerging and Asian markets, while maintaining a neutral long-term outlook. In fixed income, US Treasuries are favored, along with emerging market dollar bonds and Asian credit bonds [3][29] - The report highlights ongoing policy stimulus in Asia, with countries like China, India, and Indonesia implementing measures such as fiscal transfers, tax cuts, and credit support to boost economic recovery [3][17]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is adjusting trade policies in response to rising consumer prices, particularly in agriculture, by exempting certain agricultural products from additional tariffs to alleviate cost pressures on American consumers [1][6]. Group 1: Trade Policy Adjustments - An executive order signed by President Trump on November 14 exempts certain agricultural products from the "reciprocal tariffs" previously imposed, which had rates ranging from 10% to 50% [2]. - The exemption includes a wide range of food items such as beef, tomatoes, coffee, and bananas, aimed at reducing costs for consumers [1][2]. - The exemption is retroactive to November 13, 2023, and is part of a broader strategy to create tariff exemptions for key goods and industries [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The decision comes after the Republican Party faced losses in recent state and local elections, where opponents highlighted the need to address living cost burdens [1][6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates that coffee prices rose nearly 20% year-over-year as of September [1]. - The U.S. is increasingly reliant on imports for tropical products that cannot be sufficiently produced domestically, with imports of such goods expected to reach $39.4 billion in 2023, accounting for 18% of total agricultural imports [2]. Group 3: Political Reactions - White House officials claim the adjustments are part of fulfilling commitments to negotiate trade agreements and adjust tariffs as necessary [6]. - Critics, including Democratic lawmakers, argue that the administration is acknowledging the negative impact of its trade policies on consumer prices, with inflation rising since the implementation of these tariffs [6]. - Economists warn that consumer frustration over high grocery prices may persist, with potential further price increases as businesses pass on the full impact of import tariffs [6].

美国对墨西哥施压的策略可谓直截了当。时任美国总统特朗普政府首先抛出了关税威胁的橄榄枝，意图拉拢墨西哥一同构建针对中国的贸易围堵。 墨西哥经济部内部流出的一份文件揭示了美方的强硬底线：墨西哥必须在2026年的预算提案中明确纳入对华加征关税的条款，而给出的最后期限是 八月底。 然而，墨西哥私营部门的反应却出乎政府的意料。八月中旬，全国制造业商会发布了一份掷地有声的报告，指出墨西哥制造业对中国原材料和关键 设备的依赖程度高达惊人的42%。商会会长在公开场合毫不讳言地表示："对中国商品加征关税，无异于我们对自己产业开刀。" 更令墨西哥政府感到棘手的是，反对的声音甚至出现在了执政党内部。多位执政党议员联名提出了一项修正案，要求推迟原定的对华加税计划。其 中一位议员在听证会上直言不讳："我们坚决支持政府保护本国产业的努力，但这一切绝不能以牺牲与重要贸易伙伴的紧密关系为代价。" 面对这一局面，中国外交部在九月初迅速作出了回应。发言人明确指出，墨西哥单方面采取加征关税的举动，必将严重损害双边贸易关系的健康发 展，并大幅削弱中国企业赴墨投资的信心。这一表态在业界被解读为一条清晰的警告：如果墨西哥执意推行加税政策，中方必将采取对 ...

Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - Consumers aged 35 and under are the primary reason for the decline in gift spending this year, with older consumers (65+) planning to spend more than last year [1] - The average holiday-related spending per consumer in the U.S. is projected to be $990 in 2025, a decrease of 6.9% from 2024 and close to the 2023 estimate of $985 [4] - Consumers plan to spend an average of $650 on gifts this year, down 3.9% from last year's $677, marking the lowest level since 2022 [4] Group 2: Employment and Retail Dynamics - U.S. employers are expected to hire fewer than 500,000 seasonal workers in the last quarter of 2025, the lowest level since 2009 [7] - Retailers are cautious about the upcoming holiday shopping season, with a significant reduction in seasonal hiring compared to previous years [8] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, reflecting consumer uncertainty [8] Group 3: Economic Influences - Inflation and a slowing labor market are impacting holiday spending, with a notable decrease in hiring for retail and hospitality sectors [1][4] - The retail sector is experiencing a "K" shaped economic recovery, indicating divergent trends in consumer spending and business performance [6] - Trade policies and tariffs are significant concerns for businesses, with many citing them as major risks to economic stability [10]

刚刚过去的10月，对于特朗普来说是一个值得炫耀的时刻。 他在亚洲之行后，宣布与中国达成了一份"休战协议"，并声称这场可能摧毁全球经济的贸易战暂时停火。 然而，中国在稀土问题上的一次"让步"，却让特朗普陷入了更大的被动局面。 稀土被称为现代高科技产业的"维生素"，广泛应用于智能手机、电动车、隐形战机和导弹制导系统等领域。 中国控制着全球约90%的稀土供应，是当之无愧的"稀土界欧佩克"。 此前，中国对稀土出口实施严格管制，美国科技产业和军工企业一度陷入供应链危机。 然而，在这次谈判中，中国宣布暂停稀土出口禁令，直到2026年11月。 这一"暂停"并不是永久取消，而是一个象征性的动作，向外界传递了三个信号：中国可以随时重启禁令，禁令的威慑力真实有效，美国 必须以让步换取喘息机会。 他们原本希望通过港口费壁垒复兴造船工业，却发现特朗普为了稀土问题"牺牲"了他们的利益。 这种来自政治基本盘的反对，让特朗普的紧张情绪进一步加剧。 美媒普遍认为，特朗普的"12分胜利"不过是一个笑话。 所谓的休战更像是美国对中国的"求和"。 中国通过象征性的让步，展现了稀土资源的巨大威慑力。 而特朗普面对的，是愤怒的工会、嘲讽的媒体，以及五 ...