Edward >> one go. >> Yeah, you're exactly right. 25 basis points is the cut the Federal Reserve made. The Federal Funds rate is now 3.75% to4.There were two dissents related to this. The first the newest member of the Federal Reserve Steven Myron who wanted a half a pay% 50 basis point cut. The second was Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid who wanted to see no change to the Federal funds rate showing the division again among Federal Reserve members.Now uh you In a nod to the government shutdo ...

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it is ending the drawdown of its $6.6 trillion balance sheet amid evidence money market liquidity conditions have begun tightening and bank reserve levels dropping. ...

声明变化： 1. 经济评估：美国银行认为FOMC声明第一句措辞会有所调整，以承认经济活动的反弹。 例如，可能会表述为："近期指标显示经济活动一直在以稳健的速度扩张"。委员会也可能增加一些措 辞，说明其对经济状况的评估因停摆导致数据缺乏而受到影响。 2. 就业和通胀：CityIndex分析师David Scutt认为鉴于政府停摆导致数据匮乏，美联储可能维持就业增长放缓和通胀仍处高位的既有判断，但 上周五偏弱的9月通胀数据或促使通胀表述微调。 3. 缩表计划：摩根大通、美国银行、瑞穗证券、道明 证券和Wrightson的策略师都预计，美联储将在本月停止缩减其约6.6万亿美元的资产负债表，而巴克莱 与高盛分析师则认为结束时间会更晚。 投票比例： 1. 巴克莱：决策层内部可能出现意见分化。理事米 兰或将主张更大幅度降息，而其他部分官员有可能倾向维持现有利率水平。 2. Generali Investments预 计，决策者的投票可能会出现"三分裂"：一名异议者支持更大幅度的50个基点降息，可能还有一些异议 者支持维持利率不变。 3. Yohay Ela：米兰预计将主张更激进的宽松立场。若他能获得理事沃勒和或鲍 曼的支 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the potential cessation of the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening (QT) could enhance global liquidity and provide significant support for risk assets [1][2][3] - The market is increasingly anticipating an announcement from the Federal Reserve to end its balance sheet reduction process during the upcoming FOMC meeting, driven by signals of stress in key financing markets and recent comments from Fed officials [1][2] - Ending QT would eliminate a persistent liquidity headwind, potentially alleviating pressures in the money market that have led to rising financing costs and establishing a foundation for the rebound of various risk assets [1][2] Group 2 - The urgency to end QT is growing as the balance in the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tool diminishes, weakening a crucial "shock absorber" function in the financial system and causing increased financing costs and interest rate volatility [2] - Current repo rates have risen above the excess reserve interest rate (IORB) and may even exceed the upper limit of the Federal Funds target range, forcing market participants to rely more on the Fed's standing repo facility (SRF) [2] - Stopping QT would halt the ongoing outflow of bank reserves and signal the beginning of rebuilding systemic liquidity buffers, which is essential for maintaining normal operations in the repo market and stabilizing short-term interest rates [2][3] Group 3 - Ending QT would send a clear signal to the market that the Federal Reserve prioritizes maintaining policy control and market stability over further reducing its balance sheet [3] - This move is significant for the U.S. Treasury market, as it would alleviate the pressure of collateral excess and enable existing reserves to finance the market more effectively, improving market depth and reducing reliance on the Fed as a backstop [3] - A more stable U.S. financing environment would have widespread spillover effects, helping to ease dollar scarcity, relax global financial conditions, and support a broad recovery in risk appetite across asset classes [3]

智通财经APP获悉，市场对本周美联储政策会议的两件事有普遍的预期——政策制定者们将决定把利率 下调25个基点;鲍威尔则可能不会提供太多前瞻指引，因为决策者之间日益扩大的分歧令未来政策路径 变得模糊不清。 一些美联储官员还指出，经济中某些板块(如服务业)的价格涨幅依然顽固地偏高，而这些领域理应较少 受到关税影响。此外，美国最近对中国和加拿大加征新关税的威胁，为物价走势和经济前景增添了新的 不确定性。因此，FOMC内部的分歧可能比9月份更为严重。当时，9位委员支持今年最多再降息一次。 在这种背景下，分析师预计鲍威尔将避免对未来几次会议的政策路径做出明确指引。由于政府停摆导致 官方经济数据缺失，他将更为谨慎。德意志银行美国首席经济学家Matthew Luzzetti表示："希望未来公 布的数据能帮助弥合两派之间的分歧。"但他补充称，只要分歧仍在，鲍威尔就会对"12月及之后的会议 发出极少信号"。 美联储理事米兰(Stephen Miran)已表示将再次投票反对主流意见，支持降息50个基点。而在其余投票成 员中，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德(Jeff Schmid)可能成为支持维持利率不变的潜在异议者。 美联储观察人士还认 ...

最后5小时！ 2026见闻历早鸟价 ， 并送超值大礼包，手慢无 上述两家华尔街大行均将美联储结束"量化紧缩"（QT）的时间预测提前，理由是近期美元融资市场借贷成本上升。此前他们预计，美联储逐步抛售美国国债和 抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的这一自2022年6月开始的缩表操作，将于今年12月或明年年初结束。 目前，美联储的资产负债表已经从峰值下降了2.38万亿美元，截至今年9月底为6.59万亿美元。 美联储官员们预计将在下周于华盛顿召开的FOMC会议上讨论资产负债表的走向。市场普遍认为，美联储的政策利率有望下调至3.75%–4%，但华尔街对决策 者何时正式结束量化紧缩仍存在分歧。 包括道明证券（TD Securities）和 Wrightson ICAP在内的一些机构已将预期提前至10月，而巴克莱银行和高盛集团则预计会在稍晚时间结束。 本月早些时候，美联储主席鲍威尔在讲话中表示，当银行体系准备金略高于决策者认为"充裕"的水平时，即足以防止市场动荡的最低要求，美联储的资产负债 表缩减将会停止。鲍威尔同时发出迄今最强烈信号，称美联储可能在未来几个月内接近这一点。 摩根大通和美国银行的策略师们最新预计，美联储将于本月停止 ...

随着美联储继续缩减其资产负债表(这一过程被称为量化紧缩)，资金的变动影响着金融体系的日常运作。由于量化紧缩可能加剧流动性限制并导致市场动 荡，美联储今年早些时候已放缓缩表步伐，减少了每月让其持有的债券到期的数量。 市场普遍预计，美联储官员下周在华盛顿开会时将讨论资产负债表的前景。尽管政策利率降至3.75%–4%被视为可能性很高，但华尔街对政策制定者何时会 停止量化紧缩——美联储用来影响利率的另一个工具——则不那么确定。 智通财经APP注意到，美国银行系统的准备金水平已连续第二周下滑，进一步跌破3万亿美元。准备金是美联储决定是否继续缩表的关键考量因素，而此时 正值美联储即将确定其资产负债表路径之际。 根据10月24日发布的美联储数据，截至10月22日当周，银行准备金减少约590亿美元，降至2.93万亿美元，这是自1月1日当周以来的最低水平。 此次下降正值财政部在7月债务上限提高后加大发债力度以重建其现金余额之际。这从美联储资产负债表上的其他负债项目(如隔夜逆回购协议工具和银行准 备金)中抽走了流动性。 如今，随着所谓逆回购工具的资金几近枯竭，存放在美联储的商业银行准备金一直在下降。 货币市场利率持续攀升，尽管本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Wall Street analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may announce the end of its years-long balance sheet reduction plan at the upcoming meeting at the end of October [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Shift - The anticipated policy shift is driven by recent market volatility, with several financial institutions unexpectedly utilizing the Fed's standing repo facility, leading to increases in key short-term borrowing rates [2][3] - Analysts believe that terminating the quantitative tightening (QT) policy could help ensure the smooth operation of monetary policy [1][2] - The Fed's core interest rate target, the federal funds rate, has been consistently rising within the 4%-4.25% target range [2] Group 2: Background of QT - The QT plan was initially designed to withdraw liquidity injected during the COVID-19 pandemic, where the Fed purchased large amounts of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to stabilize the economy [3][6] - The Fed's total asset holdings peaked at $9 trillion in the summer of 2022, more than doubling from previous levels, and have since been reduced to $6.6 trillion through a specific scale of bond maturities not being reinvested [3][6] Group 3: Market Conditions and Challenges - The Fed aims to maintain sufficient liquidity in the financial system to effectively manage short-term interest rates and respond to normal market fluctuations [6] - There are challenges in determining how much liquidity removal could lead to uncontrolled market volatility, making it difficult for Wall Street to predict the timing of QT's termination [6] - Current market volatility is driven by multiple factors, including tax payment dates and increased short-term Treasury issuance, with the ongoing QT process being a significant contributor [6]

Wrightson分析师表示，回购市场资金压力的迹象可能导致美联储在下周会议上宣布不再缩减债券持有 量。Wrightson认为，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本月早些时候在一次讲话中暗示，美联储正在等待合适 的时机结束资产负债表缩减，而上周回购市场温和的紧张局势可能就是这一信号。Wrightson还预计， 美联储将开始购买美国国债，以抵消到期的抵押贷款债券，从而保持其整体资产负债表的稳定。总而言 之，随着美联储转向中性立场，市场国债供应量可能每月减少约200亿美元。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The commodity market may fluctuate in the short - term due to uncertainties such as Trump's trade policy, Sino - US trade negotiations, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical situations. The precious metals sector has strong potential, while other sectors have different trends [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance Review - The commodity market declined by 1.14% last week. Only the precious metals sector rose by 10.76%, while the non - ferrous, agricultural products, black, and energy - chemical sectors fell by 1.07%, 1.52%, 1.66%, and 3.43% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased with a narrowing margin, and the precious metals and energy - chemical sectors had significant volatility increases. The overall market scale increased, with only the non - ferrous sector having net capital outflows, mainly concentrated in Shanghai copper [2][6]. - Among specific varieties, gold, silver, and soybean No.1 had the highest gains of 10.9%, 10.53%, and 2.03% respectively, while glass, crude oil, and fuel oil had the largest declines of 9.28%, 6.34%, and 5.54% respectively [6]. 2. Outlook for Different Sectors Precious Metals - The uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations strengthens the sector's hedging properties. Powell's statement that balance - sheet reduction may end in the next few months strengthens the expectation of monetary easing, leading to a significant rise in the sector. The actual overall position of gold is at a low level, with potential for further growth. Short - term fluctuations may intensify [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - The Fed's October Beige Book shows weakening consumer spending and a labor shortage. Domestically, the economy continues to improve. The raw material supply is tight, and inventory increases, with overall supply and demand remaining relatively loose. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, waiting for a clear macro - environment [3]. Black Metals - The apparent demand for rebar has recovered significantly after the holiday but is still weak year - on - year. Production continues to decline, and inventory has decreased. The high - level hot metal has slightly declined, and downstream carrying capacity is insufficient. With the contraction of steel mill profits, the pressure for steel mills to cut production increases, and the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain strengthens. The price of coking coal may be prone to rise and difficult to fall. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, with coking coal and coke relatively stronger [3]. Energy - Oil prices continued to decline last week. The US refinery utilization rate dropped sharply, causing crude oil inventory to increase by 352,400 barrels more than expected. The three major institutions' October reports raised the supply - demand surplus for this year and next year by 210,000 barrels per day and 460,000 barrels per day respectively. The easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation and Sino - US trade games have increased market risk - aversion. Oil prices may continue to be weak in the short - term [3]. Chemicals - For polyester products, the industrial chain may continue to be weak due to weak oil prices and weakening demand expectations. For building materials, PVC domestic demand is stable, but exports face policy pressure, and cost support is not obvious. Glass has high intermediate inventory pressure and continues to be under pressure [4]. Agricultural Products - The sales progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, and China has not purchased US new - season soybeans, putting pressure on US soybean prices. Domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, and soybean meal inventory is high. If Sino - US trade relations do not improve, soybean meal may fluctuate downward. The pattern of strong oil and weak meal may continue [4]. 3. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs had significant gains, with most having a weekly return rate of around 11%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 21.8244 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.76%. The trading volume increased by 204.56%. Other commodity funds such as energy - chemical, agricultural product, and non - ferrous metal ETFs had different performance trends [38].