1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From August 18 - 22, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net capital injection, with the treasury cash - deposit injection of 120 billion yuan and maturity of 220 billion yuan. Meanwhile, it announced a 600 - billion - yuan MLF injection on the 25th. Affected by tax payment outflows, the capital market tightened first and then eased [2]. - From August 18 - 24, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) rose overall, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market declined. From August 25 - 31, 2025, the net payment of government bonds is expected to be 211.5 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 751.8 billion yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Capital Market - In August 2025, the net MLF injection was 300 billion yuan. From August 18 - 22, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 1265.2 billion yuan. Due to factors like tax payment outflows on August 19 and 20, the capital market was under pressure, and the daily net injection of 7 - day reverse repurchases exceeded 40 billion yuan on both days. From August 25 - 29, 2077 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF will mature. A 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation will be carried out on August 25, resulting in a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan in August [6]. - The capital market tightened first and then eased. From August 18 - 22, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.45% and 1.51% respectively, up 12.1 and 14.7 basis points compared to August 11 - 15. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.52% and 1.53% respectively, up 7.0 and 6.2 basis points. Affected by factors such as tax payment outflows and possible diversion of non - bank funds to the equity market, the capital interest rate increased marginally from August 18 - 20. As the tax payment disturbance ended and the central bank continued to inject funds, the capital interest rate began to decline on August 21. Looking ahead, although the capital is about to enter the end - of - month period, the net injections of repurchase and MLF in August both being 30 billion yuan indicate the central bank's clear attitude of caring for liquidity. Only short - term fluctuations are expected during the end - of - month period [7]. - The net payment scale of government bonds decreased. From August 18 - 24, the net payment of government bonds was about 294.8 billion yuan, about 115.6 billion yuan less than that from August 11 - 17. Among them, the net financing of national bonds was about 115.6 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 179.2 billion yuan. From August 25 - 31, the net payment of government bonds is expected to be 211.5 billion yuan, with the net financing of national bonds about - 100 million yuan and that of local government bonds about 211.6 billion yuan [8]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - The maturity yields of NCDs rose overall. As of August 22, 2025, the 1 - month and 3 - month NCD maturity yields were 1.4950% and 1.5500% respectively, up 4 and 3 basis points compared to August 15. The 1 - year NCD maturity yield was 1.6650%, up 3 basis points compared to August 15 [9]. - The net financing of NCDs remained negative. From August 18 - 24, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 245.5 billion yuan, compared with about - 132.5 billion yuan from August 11 - 17. From August 25 - 31, the maturity repayment of NCDs is expected to be 751.8 billion yuan, and the pressure of maturity renewal is slightly weaker than the previous week's 794.7 billion yuan [9]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market declined. From August 18 - 22, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.31%, compared with 107.83% from August 11 - 15. On August 22 and August 15, the calculated leverage ratios of the inter - bank bond market were about 107.57% and 107.68% respectively [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - This week, the funding situation unexpectedly tightened and then marginally eased, with interest rates moving "first up and then down." There was a divergence between expectations and reality, mainly due to the resonance of traditional tax periods and non - traditional stock - bond market linkages. The central bank increased and advanced liquidity injections to stabilize expectations and block the spread of redemption pressure [1]. - In the coming week, the month - end funding situation will face another "test." The probability of a significant and continuous increase is low, but fluctuations may be more obvious than in previous years. Attention should be paid to the central bank's precise hedging and the effective restoration of large banks' willingness to lend [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Month - end Funding Re - "Challenging" - This week, the funding situation unexpectedly tightened, and the central bank increased its injections to ease it. Interest rate fluctuations increased, running at relatively high levels since August. The willingness of large state - owned banks to lend decreased rapidly, and the CD issuance price fluctuated. The central bank's large - scale injections stabilized the funding situation, with a more advanced care rhythm [11]. - The expected and actual funding situation deviated this week. The resonance of the tax period and bond fund redemptions amplified the fluctuations. On August 18, when the redemption pressure was high, the net subscription index of bond - type funds dropped significantly [17]. - Looking ahead to next week, the funding situation will face a "test." The potential redemption pressure and large - scale expirations in the open market, as well as the restoration of large banks' willingness to lend, are the key factors. The smooth "passage" of the funding situation requires the central bank's precise hedging and the effective restoration of large banks' willingness to lend [21]. 3.2. Open Market: Next Week's Maturity Scale Increases Significantly - From August 18 - 22, the open market had a net injection of 126.52 billion yuan. From August 25 - 29, the open market maturity will be 237.7 billion yuan, including 207.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase and 30 billion yuan of MLF [25]. 3.3. Government Bonds: Next Week's Issuance Scale Declines - This week, the government bonds had a net payment of 294.8 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 351.6 billion yuan, with a net payment of 211.5 billion yuan [33]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in August 2025 will be about 1.32%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.08 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 0.09 pct [41]. 3.5. Money Market: Large Banks' Net Lending Declines Significantly - Interest rates moved "first up and then down." Overnight rates ran above 1.4%. SHIBOR, CNH HIBOR, interest rate swap closing rates, and bill rates all changed to varying degrees. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, while that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged treasury bond repurchase increased [44][54]. - This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 2.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.1745 trillion yuan compared with last week. The net lending of large state - owned banks decreased significantly [58]. 3.6. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1. Primary Market: Next Week's Maturity Scale Declines Slightly - This week, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 54.81 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 24.92 billion yuan, a decrease in both issuance scale and net financing compared with last week. By entity, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale, and others had the highest net financing. By term, 1Y CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 9M CDs had the highest net financing. Next week, the maturity scale will be 75.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.67 billion yuan [67]. 3.6.2. Secondary Market: Yields Increase - Yields of CDs of all terms and grades increased. For example, the yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y AAA - grade CDs all increased [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Tax payment period led to an increase in capital prices, and the central bank conducted net open - market operations to support the capital market during the tax payment period [1]. - Certificate of deposit (CD) yields showed a differentiated trend, and the treasury bond yield curve steepened. CD net financing decreased, the issuance rate increased, and the average issuance term lengthened [2]. - Next week, the net issuance of government bonds is expected to increase while the net payment is expected to decrease. This week, the inter - bank leverage ratio declined slightly [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Capital Market - Tax payment period caused an increase in capital prices. This week, R001 closed at 1.44% (previous value: 1.34%), DR001 at 1.40% (previous value: 1.31%), R007 at 1.49% (previous value: 1.45%), and DR007 at 1.48% (previous value: 1.43%). The spread between DR007 and 7 - day OMO was 7.98bp. The 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer and discount rate closed at 0.63% (previous value: 0.70%) [1]. - The central bank conducted net open - market operations to support the capital market during the tax payment period. In the four trading days this week, the central bank conducted continuous net withdrawals, with a cumulative net withdrawal of 530.9 billion yuan. On Friday (the tax payment deadline), the central bank conducted a net reverse - repurchase injection of 11.6 billion yuan and a 50 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation. In total, the central bank's reverse - repurchase injection was 71.18 billion yuan, reverse - repurchase maturity was 112.67 billion yuan, and outright reverse - repurchase injection was 50 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 8.51 billion yuan [1]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - CD yields showed a differentiated trend. This week, the 3M CD yield decreased by 0.50bp to 1.53%, the 6M yield increased by 1.26bp to 1.60%, and the 1Y yield increased by 2.25bp to 1.64%. The 1Y - 3M term spread widened. The spread between the 1 - year CD and R007 narrowed by 0.95bp to 15.42bp. The 1 - year treasury bond yield increased by 1.59bp to 1.37%, the 10 - year treasury bond yield increased by 5.74bp to 1.75%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield increased by 8.75bp to 2.05% [2]. - CD net financing decreased, the issuance rate increased, and the average issuance term lengthened. This week, CD net financing was - 13.11 billion yuan (previous value: 17.73 billion yuan). The 1 - year CD issuance rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.64%, 1.64%, 1.73%, and 1.73% respectively, with changes of + 1.08bp, + 0.67bp, + 0.32bp, and - 3.63bp compared to the previous values. In terms of the issuance structure, the weighted average issuance term this week was 8.1M (previous value: 6.4M), with 7.92 billion yuan of 3M CDs issued, 13.57 billion yuan of 6M CDs issued, and 29.41 billion yuan of 1Y CDs issued [2]. 3. Institutional Behavior - Next week, the net issuance of government bonds is expected to increase while the net payment is expected to decrease. This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 21.46 billion yuan, and the net issuance of local bonds was - 1.37 billion yuan, with a total net issuance of government bonds of 20.09 billion yuan and a total net payment of 42.84 billion yuan. Next week, the expected net issuance of treasury bonds is 32.19 billion yuan, and the expected net issuance of local bonds is 20.88 billion yuan, with a total of 53.07 billion yuan, and the total net payment is expected to be 27.16 billion yuan [3]. - This week, the inter - bank leverage ratio declined slightly. The average daily volume of pledged repurchase transactions in the inter - bank market was 8.15 trillion yuan (previous value: 8.11 trillion yuan). The daily volume of pledged repurchase transactions first increased to 8.36 trillion yuan and then decreased to 7.70 trillion yuan. The average daily inter - bank market leverage ratio was 109.01% (previous value: 109.51%) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From August 4 to August 8, 2025, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and carried out 700 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. After the cross - month period, the funding rate declined. From August 4 to August 10, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, the overall yield to maturity of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) decreased, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. From August 11 to August 17, the expected net payment of government bonds is 360.1 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 907.1 billion yuan [2]. - The outright reverse repurchase operation has more flexible timing compared to the medium - term lending facility (MLF). The central bank's operations in different months are to address various pressures on the liquidity, such as large - scale NCD maturities, tax payment months, and new bond issuance policies. The 6 - month outright reverse repurchase in August may be operated in the middle of the month to assist in stabilizing the funding situation during the tax payment period [7]. - The funding situation eased at the beginning of the month. From August 4 to August 8, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 5.6 and 8.7 basis points respectively compared to the period from July 28 to August 1. The average values of DR007 and R007 decreased by 8.2 and 11.4 basis points respectively. In the future, the funding situation is expected to remain stable and loose overall, but the central bank's goal of preventing "idle funds" may limit the significant decline of the funding rate center [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Funding Situation - **Outright Reverse Repurchase and 7 - day Reverse Repurchase**: From August 4 to August 8, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 53.65 billion yuan. On August 8, it carried out 70 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. The net investment of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase was 30 billion yuan. The maturity scales of 3 - month and 6 - month outright reverse repurchases in August are 40 billion and 50 billion yuan respectively [6]. - **Funding Rate**: From August 4 to August 8, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.31% and 1.35% respectively, down 5.6 and 8.7 basis points from July 28 - August 1. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.45% and 1.47% respectively, down 8.2 and 11.4 basis points from July 28 - August 1 [8]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From August 4 to August 10, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 37.06 billion yuan, an increase of about 8.3 billion yuan compared to July 28 - August 3. From August 11 to August 17, the expected net payment of government bonds is 36.01 billion yuan [8]. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Yield to Maturity**: As of August 8, 2025, the yields to maturity of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 1 - year NCDs were 1.4490%, 1.5300%, and 1.6175% respectively, down 4, 1, and 2 basis points from August 1 [9]. - **Net Financing Amount**: From August 4 to August 10, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 17.76 billion yuan, compared with about 1 billion yuan from July 28 to August 3. From August 11 to August 17, the expected maturity repayment amount of NCDs is 907.1 billion yuan, and the pressure of maturity renewal has increased compared to the previous week [9]. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From August 4 to August 8, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.96%, up from the average of 107.63% from July 28 to August 1. On August 8 and August 1, the calculated leverage ratios were about 108.07% and 108.10% respectively [10].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1120 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, while a total of 5448 billion yuan in reverse repos matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan from the open market [1] - Last week, the central bank's reverse repos resulted in a net withdrawal of 5365 billion yuan, and a 7000 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation was conducted on Friday with a three-month term [1] - The overnight interest rates remained low, with R001 and DR001 hovering around 1.35% and 1.31%, respectively, while the seven-day rates R007 and DR007 oscillated around 1.47% and 1.45% [1] Group 2 - This week, the scale of reverse repos maturing will decrease to 11267 billion yuan, primarily due to a large amount maturing on Monday, with subsequent days around 1500 billion yuan [2] - The net government bond payment scale will rise to 4101 billion yuan, mainly concentrated on Monday and Friday, with August 15 being the tax deadline and mid-month reserve payment date [2] - Despite the large amount of reverse repos maturing and increased government bond payments, the liquidity in the market is expected to remain loose due to the central bank's stabilizing stance [2][3] Group 3 - The government bond payment pressure is concentrated on Monday (2344 billion yuan) and Friday (1847 billion yuan), marking a high point for the month [3] - The total reverse repos maturing this week is 11267 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous week's 16632 billion yuan, but still above one trillion yuan [3] - The PBOC's recent 7000 billion yuan three-month buyout reverse repo operation has raised market attention regarding future liquidity management, with expectations for a second buyout operation in August [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the central bank conducted a small - scale net injection of funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The liquidity situation showed minor fluctuations during the month - end transition but returned to stability afterward. From July 28 to August 3, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, the yields of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined overall, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market remained basically stable. From August 4 to August 10, the expected net payment of government bonds is 33.9 billion yuan, and the maturing scale of NCDs is about 59.83 billion yuan [2]. - The central bank is expected to continue to support the liquidity situation. In August, with the maturity of MLF and outright reverse repurchase, considering the need to stabilize expectations, the central bank is likely to maintain its supportive stance towards the liquidity [5]. - The liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant in August, and the funding rates are likely to stay at a relatively low level. At the beginning of the month, the liquidity may experience seasonal easing, but attention should be paid to the issuance rhythm of government bonds and the large - scale maturity of NCDs during the month [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operations had a net injection of 690 million yuan. From August 4 to August 8, 166.32 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature. In July, the central bank injected 10 billion yuan of liquidity through MLF and 20 billion yuan through outright reverse repurchase. In August, 30 billion yuan of MLF and 90 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase will mature [5]. - **Funding Rates**: From July 28 to August 1, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 7.3 and 5.2 basis points respectively compared with the period from July 21 to July 25. The average values of DR007 and R007 decreased by 0.7 and increased by 2.8 basis points respectively. In July, the funding rates fluctuated significantly, and in August, they are expected to remain low, but it is difficult to decline further compared with early July [6]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From July 28 to August 3, the net payment of government bonds was about 28.76 billion yuan, 2.84 billion yuan less than the previous week. From August 4 to August 10, the expected net payment is 33.9 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Yields of Maturing NCDs**: As of August 1, 2025, the yields of 1M, 3M, and 1Y NCDs decreased by 7, 4, and 4 basis points respectively compared with July 25. The decline was due to the stabilization of funding rates and the partial recovery of the bond market [8]. - **Net Financing of NCDs**: From July 28 to August 3, the net financing of NCDs was about 1 billion yuan, turning positive from - 56.08 billion yuan in the previous week. From August 4 to August 10, the maturing repayment amount of NCDs is expected to be 59.83 billion yuan, with an increased pressure on renewal compared with the previous week [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From July 28 to August 1, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.63%, basically the same as the previous week. On August 1 and July 25, the calculated leverage ratios were about 108.10% and 107.27% respectively [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the money market faced multiple disturbances. The overnight funding rate reached a relatively high level since June, with large - bank lending first decreasing and then increasing, and non - bank lending willingness increasing. The second half of the week saw relatively stable certificate of deposit (CD) prices. Considering the 200 billion yuan MLF withdrawal on July 25, the medium - to - long - term liquidity supply in the second half of the month may rely more on MLF operations [1][20]. - Next week, the money market will still face certain pressure due to factors such as MLF withdrawal, large - scale reverse repurchase maturities, over 1 trillion yuan of CD maturities, and approaching the end of the month. However, the overall situation is controllable. The central bank's response to these disturbances is the key to the movement of funding prices. Although there are still many disturbances next week, the end of the "tax period" and the possible acceleration of fiscal expenditures at the end of the month may ease the pressure on inter - bank liquidity compared to this week. Funding prices may show a slow downward trend, but the decline may be limited due to the approaching end - of - month point [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overnight Funding: Has It Reached the Peak? - This week, the money market faced multiple disturbances. In the first half of the week, the money market tightened marginally, and in the second half, there were signs of easing. The overnight funding rate reached a relatively high level since June. From July 14 - 18, the weekly averages of DR001 and R001 increased by 14.62BP and 13.37BP respectively compared to the previous week, and the weekly averages of DR007 and R007 increased by 5.82BP and 3.25BP respectively [11]. - In the first half of the week, factors such as tax payments, special treasury bond issuance, MLF withdrawal, and large - scale CD maturities led to a marginal tightening of the money market. The central bank continuously increased liquidity injections. On July 15, it conducted a 1.4 trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation to inject medium - to - long - term liquidity. Both funding and CD issuance prices increased to varying degrees [11]. - From July 17 - 18, as tax payments neared completion and the central bank continued to increase liquidity injections, there were signs of easing in the money market, but the process of easing may have fallen short of market expectations. Large - bank lending increased moderately, and the weighted CD issuance price fluctuated downward, indicating some relief of money - market pressure. However, funding prices remained at relatively high levels since June, with overnight funding above 1.45% [12]. - Next week, multiple factors such as MLF withdrawal, large - scale reverse repurchase maturities, over 1 trillion yuan of CD maturities, and approaching the end of the month will put pressure on the money market, but the overall situation is controllable. The central bank's response to these disturbances is crucial for the movement of funding prices [23]. 2. Open Market: Over 2 Trillion Yuan to Mature Next Week - From July 14 - 18, the open market had a net injection of 260.11 billion yuan, including 172.68 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase issuance, 42.57 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities, 140 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase issuance, and 10 billion yuan of MLF withdrawal [27]. - From July 21 - 25, the open market will have 204.68 billion yuan of maturities, including 172.68 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities, 20 billion yuan of MLF withdrawal, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturities [3][27]. 3. Government Bonds: Nearly 700 Billion Yuan to Be Issued Next Week - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 42.88 billion yuan, with 243.3 billion yuan of treasury bond issuance, 251.2 billion yuan of local government bond issuance, 185.2 billion yuan of treasury bond maturities, and 87.8 billion yuan of local government bond maturities [38]. - Next week, government bonds are planned to be issued worth 679.1 billion yuan, including 375 billion yuan of treasury bond issuance, 304.1 billion yuan of local government bond issuance, 395.3 billion yuan of treasury bond maturities, and 114.6 billion yuan of local government bond maturities. The net payment of treasury bonds is - 2.03 billion yuan, and the net payment of local government bonds is 26.02 billion yuan [4][38]. 4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in July 2025 will be approximately 0.97%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.31 percentage points (the forecast for the end of June was 1.28%) and a year - on - year decrease of 0.52 percentage points (1.49% in the same period last year) [44]. - From July 14 - 18, the open market had a net injection of 260.11 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 42.88 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure gap was 5.49 billion yuan, the reserve requirement was - 3.04 billion yuan, and tax payments were 169.46 billion yuan [45]. 5. Money Market: Large - Bank Lending First Decreases and Then Increases - Overnight funding rates increased significantly. As of July 18, compared to July 11, DR001 increased by 11.39BP to 1.46%, DR007 increased by 3.49BP to 1.51%, R001 increased by 8.43BP to 1.49%, and R007 decreased by 0.14BP to 1.51% [5][47]. - DR001 exceeded 1.4%. As of July 18, compared to July 11, "DR001 - OMO" increased to 5.66BP, "DR007 - OMO" increased to 10.67BP, "R001 - OMO" increased to 8.81BP, "R007 - OMO" decreased to 10.72BP, "R001 - DR001" decreased to 3.15BP, and "R007 - DR007" decreased to 0.05BP [47]. - SHIBOR rates: The weekly averages of overnight and 7 - day rates changed by 15.1BP and 4.74BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.32% and 1.47% [52]. - CNH HIBOR rates: The weekly averages of overnight and 7 - day rates changed by 8.43BP and 2.47BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.51% and 1.61% [52]. - Interest rate swap closing rates: The weekly averages of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y rates changed by 0.07BP and 3.11BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.53% and 1.53% [55]. - Bill rates: The weekly averages of six - month national - share transfer discount rates and six - month city - commercial transfer discount rates changed by - 0.1 percentage points to 0.84% and 0.95% respectively [55]. - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.2446 trillion yuan, a decrease of 966 billion yuan compared to July 7 - 11. Among them, the average daily trading volume of R001 was 6.4144 trillion yuan, with an average share of 88.5%; the average daily trading volume of R007 was 746.1 billion yuan, with an average share of 10.3% [57]. - The average daily trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange new - style pledged treasury bond repurchase was 2.1314 trillion yuan, a decrease of 230 million yuan compared to July 7 - 11. Among them, the average daily trading volume of GC001 was 1.8606 trillion yuan, with an average share of 87.3%; the average daily trading volume of GC007 was 199.1 billion yuan, with an average share of 9.3% [57]. - From July 14 - 18, the average net lending of the banking system was 3 trillion yuan, a change of - 83.4 billion yuan compared to last week. Among them, the average net lending of state - owned large banks was 3.62 trillion yuan, a change of - 86.84 billion yuan compared to last week, with an overnight share of 97%, a change of - 0.26 percentage points compared to last week. The average net lending of other banks was - 0.61 trillion yuan, a change of 3.44 billion yuan compared to last week [62]. 6. Certificates of Deposit 6.1 Primary Market: Maturity Volume to Increase Next Week - From July 14 - 18, the total issuance of CDs was 945 billion yuan, with a net financing of 18.36 billion yuan. Compared to last week's total issuance of 425.9 billion yuan and net financing of - 9.54 billion yuan, the issuance scale and net financing increased [70]. - By issuer, state - owned banks had the highest CD issuance scale and net financing. State - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city - commercial banks, and rural commercial banks issued 344.7 billion yuan, 215.3 billion yuan, 305 billion yuan, and 74.2 billion yuan respectively, with net financing of 64.8 billion yuan, 49.5 billion yuan, 62 billion yuan, and 14.4 billion yuan respectively [70]. - By maturity, 1 - year CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 6 - month CDs had the highest net financing. The issuance scales of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs were 102.5 billion yuan, 118.7 billion yuan, 186.7 billion yuan, 62.8 billion yuan, and 474.3 billion yuan respectively, with net financing of 81.1 billion yuan, - 80.5 billion yuan, 81.3 billion yuan, 47.6 billion yuan, and 54.1 billion yuan respectively [70]. - Next week (July 21 - 27), the maturity volume of CDs will be 1.0699 trillion yuan, an increase of 308.5 billion yuan compared to this week (July 14 - 20). The maturity volume is mainly concentrated in national - share banks and city - commercial banks, and the maturities are mainly concentrated in 1 - year and 3 - month terms [80][81]. 6.2 Secondary Market: Yields Fluctuate Narrowly - This week, CD secondary market yields fluctuated narrowly and decreased slightly compared to last week. The yields of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year AAA - rated CDs decreased by 0BP, - 2BP, - 2BP, - 2BP, and - 1BP respectively to 1.51%, 1.54%, 1.58%, 1.61%, and 1.62% [94]. - The yields of most CD grades decreased. The yields of 1 - year AAA, AAA -, AA +, AA, and AA - rated CDs changed by - 1BP, - 1BP, 0BP, 1BP, and 0BP respectively to 1.62%, 1.62%, 1.65%, 1.7%, and 1.86% [94].

Group 1: Liquidity Overview - As of early July, the liquidity in the market has turned loose as expected, with a significant net withdrawal by the central bank exceeding 2500 billion CNY daily since July 1, reaching over 4500 billion CNY on some days[1][11] - The overnight funding rate has dropped below the OMO rate, with R001 decreasing from 2.30% on June 30 to 1.37% by July 4, while DR001 fell from 1.51% to 1.31%[1][11] - The issuance rate for one-year time deposits from state-owned banks has declined to below 1.60%, marking the lowest point since the Spring Festival this year[2][15] Group 2: Market Outlook - The liquidity is expected to stabilize in the upcoming week (July 7-11), with funding prices likely to remain low, and overnight rates fluctuating around OMO ±5bp[3][17] - A significant amount of 1.2 trillion CNY in reverse repos is set to mature in July, with 300 billion CNY in MLF also maturing, creating a potential liquidity gap of 1.3 trillion CNY until the MLF rollover[3][20] Group 3: Government Bonds and Bills - Government bond net payments increased to 2511 billion CNY from 341 billion CNY the previous week, with both national and local bonds seeing a rise in net payments[6][32] - The bill rates have generally increased, with the 1M bill rate rising by 32bp to 1.22% and the 3M rate up by 10bp to 1.20%[5][28] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit fell to 1.62%, down 2bp from the previous week, while the total maturity pressure increased to 5213 billion CNY for the week of July 7-11[7][40] - The total maturity scale for July is projected to be 2.8 trillion CNY, significantly lower than June's 4.2 trillion CNY[7][40]

Group 1 - The overall liquidity in the market is balanced and loose, with DR001 falling below the 1.4% policy rate, and state-owned banks' net financing reaching a year-high of 4.55 trillion yuan [1][11][27] - Historical trends indicate that at the end of June, funding rates typically rise, but the central bank often increases liquidity support, especially during a month with significant fiscal spending [21][27] - Concerns for the upcoming cross-quarter period include a high maturity of interbank certificates of deposit exceeding 4 trillion yuan, and a recent reduction in deposit rates by major banks, which may lead to deposit outflows [26][27] Group 2 - Next week, the market will see over 10 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing, along with the continuation of MLF operations, indicating ongoing liquidity support from the central bank [2][33] - Government bond net payments are expected to increase significantly, with a net payment of 7.498 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial fiscal activity [4][31] - The interbank certificate of deposit maturity will be 11.092 trillion yuan, which remains substantial, and attention will be paid to the pressure of renewing these deposits as the quarter-end approaches [6][31] Group 3 - The average daily net financing from state-owned banks has been rising, with a significant increase noted this week, indicating a robust liquidity position [5][27] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit remains stable, with no significant upward pressure on rates, suggesting a controlled liquidity environment [6][27] - The second quarter has seen an acceleration in fiscal bond issuance, which is expected to provide additional liquidity support as the quarter-end approaches [27][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - From April 27 to April 30, 2025, the central bank made a net capital injection, and the cross - month funding rates remained generally stable. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net financing scale of government bonds increased; inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) turned to net repayment, and most of the NCD maturity yields declined; the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased, and the net financing scale of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks continued the recovery trend. It is expected that government bonds will have a net repayment of 11.23 billion yuan from May 5 to May 11, 2025 [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Funding Situation - From April 27 to April 30, 2025, the central bank's reverse repurchase injection was 124.03 billion yuan and the withdrawal was 50.45 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 73.58 billion yuan. From May 5 to May 9, 2025, reverse repurchases in the open market worth 161.78 billion yuan will mature. In April 2025, the outright reverse repurchase injection was 120 billion yuan, with a maturity volume of 170 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 50 billion yuan [6]. - From April 27 to April 30, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.63% and 1.67% respectively, down 1.7 basis points and up 0.1 basis points compared with April 21 - April 25, 2025; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.76% and 1.79% respectively, up 7.6 basis points and 7.2 basis points compared with April 21 - April 25, 2025. During the cross - month period, the central bank made a net capital injection to support liquidity, and the overnight funding rate rose significantly only on April 30, the last trading day of April [6]. Government Bonds - From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net financing amount of government bonds was about 12.11 billion yuan, an increase of about 20.12 billion yuan compared with April 21 - April 27, 2025. Among them, the net financing amount of treasury bonds was 0 billion yuan, and the net financing amount of local government bonds was about 12.11 billion yuan. From May 5 to May 11, 2025, the net repayment amount of government bonds is expected to be about 11.23 billion yuan, including about 17.54 billion yuan of net repayment of treasury bonds and about 6.31 billion yuan of net financing of local government bonds [7]. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - As of April 30, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M NCDs were 1.6352% and 1.7300% respectively, down 6 basis points and 1 basis point compared with April 25, 2025; the maturity yield of 1Y NCDs was 1.7350%, down 2 basis points compared with April 25, 2025 [8]. - From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net repayment amount of NCDs was about 8.6 billion yuan, while from April 21 to April 27, 2025, it was a net financing of about 17.71 billion yuan. From May 5 to May 11, 2025, the maturity repayment amount of NCDs is expected to be 52.36 billion yuan, higher than this week's 33.53 billion yuan, and the refinancing pressure will increase slightly [8]. Institutional Behaviors - From April 27 to April 30, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.49%, compared with the calculated average of 107.19% from April 21 to April 25, 2025 [9]. - In terms of the structure of net financing through pledged reverse repurchases, on April 30, 2025, the net financing amount of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks was about 2.89 trillion yuan, accounting for 53.7% of the total net financing amount; on April 25, 2025, the net financing scale of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks was about 2.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 53.3% of the total net financing amount [9].