Group 1: Liquidity Overview - As of early July, the liquidity in the market has turned loose as expected, with a significant net withdrawal by the central bank exceeding 2500 billion CNY daily since July 1, reaching over 4500 billion CNY on some days[1][11] - The overnight funding rate has dropped below the OMO rate, with R001 decreasing from 2.30% on June 30 to 1.37% by July 4, while DR001 fell from 1.51% to 1.31%[1][11] - The issuance rate for one-year time deposits from state-owned banks has declined to below 1.60%, marking the lowest point since the Spring Festival this year[2][15] Group 2: Market Outlook - The liquidity is expected to stabilize in the upcoming week (July 7-11), with funding prices likely to remain low, and overnight rates fluctuating around OMO ±5bp[3][17] - A significant amount of 1.2 trillion CNY in reverse repos is set to mature in July, with 300 billion CNY in MLF also maturing, creating a potential liquidity gap of 1.3 trillion CNY until the MLF rollover[3][20] Group 3: Government Bonds and Bills - Government bond net payments increased to 2511 billion CNY from 341 billion CNY the previous week, with both national and local bonds seeing a rise in net payments[6][32] - The bill rates have generally increased, with the 1M bill rate rising by 32bp to 1.22% and the 3M rate up by 10bp to 1.20%[5][28] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit fell to 1.62%, down 2bp from the previous week, while the total maturity pressure increased to 5213 billion CNY for the week of July 7-11[7][40] - The total maturity scale for July is projected to be 2.8 trillion CNY, significantly lower than June's 4.2 trillion CNY[7][40]

Group 1 - The overall liquidity in the market is balanced and loose, with DR001 falling below the 1.4% policy rate, and state-owned banks' net financing reaching a year-high of 4.55 trillion yuan [1][11][27] - Historical trends indicate that at the end of June, funding rates typically rise, but the central bank often increases liquidity support, especially during a month with significant fiscal spending [21][27] - Concerns for the upcoming cross-quarter period include a high maturity of interbank certificates of deposit exceeding 4 trillion yuan, and a recent reduction in deposit rates by major banks, which may lead to deposit outflows [26][27] Group 2 - Next week, the market will see over 10 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing, along with the continuation of MLF operations, indicating ongoing liquidity support from the central bank [2][33] - Government bond net payments are expected to increase significantly, with a net payment of 7.498 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial fiscal activity [4][31] - The interbank certificate of deposit maturity will be 11.092 trillion yuan, which remains substantial, and attention will be paid to the pressure of renewing these deposits as the quarter-end approaches [6][31] Group 3 - The average daily net financing from state-owned banks has been rising, with a significant increase noted this week, indicating a robust liquidity position [5][27] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit remains stable, with no significant upward pressure on rates, suggesting a controlled liquidity environment [6][27] - The second quarter has seen an acceleration in fiscal bond issuance, which is expected to provide additional liquidity support as the quarter-end approaches [27][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - From April 27 to April 30, 2025, the central bank made a net capital injection, and the cross - month funding rates remained generally stable. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net financing scale of government bonds increased; inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) turned to net repayment, and most of the NCD maturity yields declined; the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased, and the net financing scale of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks continued the recovery trend. It is expected that government bonds will have a net repayment of 11.23 billion yuan from May 5 to May 11, 2025 [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Funding Situation - From April 27 to April 30, 2025, the central bank's reverse repurchase injection was 124.03 billion yuan and the withdrawal was 50.45 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 73.58 billion yuan. From May 5 to May 9, 2025, reverse repurchases in the open market worth 161.78 billion yuan will mature. In April 2025, the outright reverse repurchase injection was 120 billion yuan, with a maturity volume of 170 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 50 billion yuan [6]. - From April 27 to April 30, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.63% and 1.67% respectively, down 1.7 basis points and up 0.1 basis points compared with April 21 - April 25, 2025; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.76% and 1.79% respectively, up 7.6 basis points and 7.2 basis points compared with April 21 - April 25, 2025. During the cross - month period, the central bank made a net capital injection to support liquidity, and the overnight funding rate rose significantly only on April 30, the last trading day of April [6]. Government Bonds - From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net financing amount of government bonds was about 12.11 billion yuan, an increase of about 20.12 billion yuan compared with April 21 - April 27, 2025. Among them, the net financing amount of treasury bonds was 0 billion yuan, and the net financing amount of local government bonds was about 12.11 billion yuan. From May 5 to May 11, 2025, the net repayment amount of government bonds is expected to be about 11.23 billion yuan, including about 17.54 billion yuan of net repayment of treasury bonds and about 6.31 billion yuan of net financing of local government bonds [7]. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - As of April 30, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M NCDs were 1.6352% and 1.7300% respectively, down 6 basis points and 1 basis point compared with April 25, 2025; the maturity yield of 1Y NCDs was 1.7350%, down 2 basis points compared with April 25, 2025 [8]. - From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net repayment amount of NCDs was about 8.6 billion yuan, while from April 21 to April 27, 2025, it was a net financing of about 17.71 billion yuan. From May 5 to May 11, 2025, the maturity repayment amount of NCDs is expected to be 52.36 billion yuan, higher than this week's 33.53 billion yuan, and the refinancing pressure will increase slightly [8]. Institutional Behaviors - From April 27 to April 30, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.49%, compared with the calculated average of 107.19% from April 21 to April 25, 2025 [9]. - In terms of the structure of net financing through pledged reverse repurchases, on April 30, 2025, the net financing amount of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks was about 2.89 trillion yuan, accounting for 53.7% of the total net financing amount; on April 25, 2025, the net financing scale of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks was about 2.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 53.3% of the total net financing amount [9].

核 心 观 点 3月以来，央行对资金面的态度边际缓和，资金面转向均衡态势。那么，4月政府债供给有多少？流动性缺 口有多大？资金面转松了么？ 资金面有何变化？ 资金利率方面 ， 3月 短端资金利率趋于下行，资金面整体均衡偏松；流动性分层现象 接近消失，R007与DR007利差处于较低位。 央行操作方面 ，中下旬以来，央行公开市场由净回笼转为净 投放，呵护税期流动性，月末央行开展4500亿元MLF操作，为去年8月以来首次超额续作，同时价格改为 多重招标。 长债利率方面 ，3月债市快速回调后企稳，10Y国债利率较2月末上行9.8BP。 债券托管方面 ，3月债券托管规模环比增速上行，分券种看，利率债托管环比增量扩大，其中地方债继续贡献主要增 量；分机构看，2月政府债券供给大幅抬升，商业银行仍是承接的主要力量。 政府债供给多少？ 国债方面 ，4月已经公布的两只附息国债发行规模较3月进一步增长，据此我们预计4月 普通国债或将发行1.16万亿元，考虑1.2万亿元的到期量后，4月国债净融资规模约-455亿元。 地方债方面 ，我们预计4月地方政府新增债和普通再融资债规模分别为3200亿元和3800亿元；特殊再融资债预计二季 度 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since February 2025, long-term bond yields have shown an overall upward trend, with significant differentiation in trading behaviors among various institutions in the bond market. Funds and state-owned banks have primarily acted as sellers, while rural commercial banks and insurance companies have shown notable buying behavior in the long end of the curve. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term despite a potential easing of regulatory pressure on market sentiment [1][2][4]. Recent Market Pressure - The bond market has faced overall pressure since February 2025, with the central bank tightening liquidity support. This has led to a rise in long-term government bond yields, breaking the earlier oscillating pattern. The yield curve has shown a general increase across various maturities, with the 30Y-10Y spread narrowing by approximately 20 basis points [2][3]. Institutional Trading Behavior Changes - There has been a significant divergence in trading patterns among major institutions. Insurance companies and rural commercial banks have displayed a clear tendency to buy on dips, while funds have mainly sold policy bank bonds. State-owned banks have significantly sold off various maturities of government bonds, contrasting with their previous "buy short, sell long" strategy [3][4]. Future Market Adjustment Pressures - The 10-year government bond yield has returned to levels seen before the "moderately loose" monetary policy stance was proposed. The market is now focused on the upper limits of this adjustment, with three key factors to consider: the return of policy rate anchors, the potential for substantial interest rate hikes conflicting with the goal of reducing overall financing costs, and the need to monitor liquidity and risk factors closely [4][5].