Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a stable monetary policy with significant liquidity injections through reverse repos, despite upcoming large-scale maturities and external disturbances in the financial market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On October 13, the PBOC conducted a 1.378 trillion yuan (approximately 137.8 billion) 7-day reverse repo operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1.378 trillion yuan [1]. - From September 28 to October 11, the PBOC had a net withdrawal of 1.3304 trillion yuan through reverse repos, but subsequently announced a 1.1 trillion yuan 3-month buyout reverse repo operation [1]. - The upcoming week (October 13-17) will see a decrease in reverse repo maturities to 1.021 trillion yuan, with significant amounts maturing on Thursday and Friday [2]. Group 2: Market Liquidity Outlook - Despite the pressure from upcoming reverse repo maturities, the liquidity environment is expected to remain stable due to limited government bond net payments and delayed tax periods [2][3]. - The liquidity test in October is anticipated to be concentrated at the end of the month, with tax reporting deadlines pushed to October 27, coinciding with the month-end [3]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's continued use of longer-term tools like MLF and buyout repos indicates a commitment to maintaining liquidity, with expectations that funding rates will remain low [4]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The liquidity gap in October is expected to be weaker than seasonal trends, with the PBOC's monetary policy remaining accommodative, thus limiting risks of liquidity tightening [3]. - If the PBOC continues to provide support through reverse repos and potentially reintroduces other measures, the funding environment could become more favorable, leading to lower volatility [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank net - withdrew funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase and conducted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations during the quarter - end period. MLF was incrementally renewed. The inter - bank funding market fluctuated significantly due to the quarter - end effect [2][6]. - The net payment scale of government bonds decreased from September 22 - 28, 2025, and the majority of inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields rose. The net financing of NCDs turned negative. The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased, and the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both marginally increased [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Funding Market - **Central Bank Operations**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 2594 billion yuan, 14 - day reverse repurchase was 9000 billion yuan, and MLF had a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. On September 29 and 30, 7 - day reverse repurchases totaling 5166 billion yuan were due, and on October 9, 7 - day reverse repurchases of 12325 billion yuan and 14 - day reverse repurchases of 3000 billion yuan were due [6]. - **Funding Rate Fluctuations**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 5.0 and 5.5 basis points respectively compared to September 15 - 19, while the average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 1.9 and 9.9 basis points respectively. The funding market loosened from September 22 - 23, fluctuated significantly from September 24 - 25, and the funding rate dropped significantly on September 26 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment of government bonds was about 716 billion yuan, a decrease of about 3764 billion yuan compared to September 15 - 21. From September 29 - 30, the expected net payment was 2121 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificate of Deposits - **Yield Changes**: As of September 26, 2025, the yields of 1M, 3M, and 1Y NCDs increased by 7.5, 1.0, and 1.0 basis points respectively compared to September 19 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 1782 billion yuan, turning negative from 1295 billion yuan in September 15 - 21. The expected maturity repayment from September 29 - October 5 was 1688 billion yuan, and the expected maturity in October was 18443 billion yuan, significantly lower than 35470 billion yuan in September [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.65%, up from 107.32% in September 15 - 19 [9]. - **Bond Fund Duration**: On September 26, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.05 years, up 0.01 years week - on - week, at the 59.2% quantile since early 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.58 years, up 0.03 years week - on - week, at the 14.1% quantile since early 2022 [9].

Liquidity Trends - From September 22-26, the liquidity environment experienced significant fluctuations, with overnight rates (R001) rising from 1.46% to 1.52% and 7-day rates (R007) increasing from 1.52% to 1.80%[1][10][11] - On September 26, the central bank injected 600 billion CNY through 14-day reverse repos and continued with 165.8 billion CNY in 7-day reverse repos, leading to a rapid decline in rates, with R001 falling 18 basis points to 1.33% and R007 dropping 24 basis points to 1.55%[1][11] Future Outlook - The liquidity is expected to return to a more accommodative state in the week following the holiday (September 29-30), with R007 likely to remain below 2.0%[2][23] - The upcoming week will see a significant amount of reverse repos maturing, totaling approximately 1.95 trillion CNY, which may exert pressure on liquidity if the central bank does not continue its support[2][24] Market Operations - The central bank's net injection in the open market from September 22-26 was 940.6 billion CNY, with 7-day reverse repos totaling 1.5674 trillion CNY and 14-day reverse repos at 900 billion CNY[3][30] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing on October 9-10 is projected to be 1.9508 trillion CNY, indicating a substantial liquidity event post-holiday[3][30] Credit Market Insights - In the last week of September, the average 1-month bill rate increased by 4 basis points compared to the previous week, indicating a potential rise in bank credit issuance[4][33] - Despite the increase in rates, the overall credit issuance remains weaker than seasonal trends, with major banks showing a net purchase of 123.8 billion CNY in bills, slightly higher than the previous year's 113.2 billion CNY[4][33] Government Debt Activity - From September 29 to October 10, the net payment for government bonds is expected to be 188.2 billion CNY, with a notable decrease in issuance compared to the previous week[5][37] - The net payment before the holiday is projected at 192.7 billion CNY, while post-holiday payments are expected to be negative at -44 million CNY[5][37] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Trends - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.66%, reflecting a 1.6 basis point increase from the previous week[6][43] - The upcoming maturity pressure for certificates of deposit is relatively low, with 175.7 billion CNY maturing on September 29-30 and 132 billion CNY on October 9-10[6][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the central bank net - injected liquidity during the tax period, and the 14 - day reverse repurchase was changed to "American tender". The money market tightened under the influence of the tax period, and there may still be some volatility pressure in the second half of September due to the cross - quarter effect [2][6][7] - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, and the net payment scale of government bonds from September 22 - 28 is expected to be 413.9 billion yuan [8] - As of September 19, 2025, the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased overall, and the net financing amount of NCDs turned positive. The maturity repayment volume of NCDs from September 22 - 28 is expected to be 969.2 billion yuan, with increased pressure on renewal [9] - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased, and the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both decreased marginally [10] Summary by Directory 1. Money Market - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase injected 1.8268 trillion yuan and matured 1.2645 trillion yuan, and the treasury cash injected 150 billion yuan and matured 120 billion yuan, with a total net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. On September 15, a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation was carried out, with an incremental renewal of 300 billion yuan. From September 22 - 26, 2025, 1.8268 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF will mature [6] - On September 19, 2025, the central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to "fixed quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bids", which helps reduce bank liability costs and highlights the policy - rate position of the 7 - day reverse repurchase operation rate. It is expected that 14 - day reverse repurchases will be appropriately operated in late September to stabilize the money market [7] - From September 15 - 19, 2025, affected by the tax period, the average values of DR001 and R001 increased by 7.7 and 8.7 basis points respectively compared with September 8 - 12, and the average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 4.8 and 4.0 basis points respectively [7] 2. Government Bonds - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 448 billion yuan, an increase of about 103.7 billion yuan compared with September 8 - 14. The net financing amount of treasury bonds was about 397.1 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 50.9 billion yuan. From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds is expected to be 41.39 billion yuan, with a net financing of about - 89.65 billion yuan for treasury bonds and about 131.04 billion yuan for local government bonds [8] 3. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - As of September 19, 2025, the maturity yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.5750%, an increase of 2.4 and 1.5 basis points respectively compared with September 12, and the maturity yield of 1 - year NCDs was 1.6750%, an increase of 0.5 basis points compared with September 12 [9] - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 134.4 billion yuan, compared with about - 468.3 billion yuan from September 8 - 14. The maturity repayment volume of NCDs from September 22 - 28 is expected to be 969.2 billion yuan, with increased pressure on renewal [9] 4. Institutional Behavior - From September 15 - 19, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.32%, compared with 107.37% from September 8 - 12. On September 19 and 12, the calculated leverage ratios were about 107.45% and 107.44% respectively [10] - Based on the calculation results, the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both decreased marginally. On September 19, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.04 years, a weekly decrease of 0.70 years, at the 58.7% quantile since the beginning of 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.56 years, a weekly decrease of 0.17 years, at the 12.2% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From August 18 - 22, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net capital injection, with the treasury cash - deposit injection of 120 billion yuan and maturity of 220 billion yuan. Meanwhile, it announced a 600 - billion - yuan MLF injection on the 25th. Affected by tax payment outflows, the capital market tightened first and then eased [2]. - From August 18 - 24, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) rose overall, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market declined. From August 25 - 31, 2025, the net payment of government bonds is expected to be 211.5 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 751.8 billion yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Capital Market - In August 2025, the net MLF injection was 300 billion yuan. From August 18 - 22, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 1265.2 billion yuan. Due to factors like tax payment outflows on August 19 and 20, the capital market was under pressure, and the daily net injection of 7 - day reverse repurchases exceeded 40 billion yuan on both days. From August 25 - 29, 2077 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF will mature. A 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation will be carried out on August 25, resulting in a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan in August [6]. - The capital market tightened first and then eased. From August 18 - 22, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.45% and 1.51% respectively, up 12.1 and 14.7 basis points compared to August 11 - 15. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.52% and 1.53% respectively, up 7.0 and 6.2 basis points. Affected by factors such as tax payment outflows and possible diversion of non - bank funds to the equity market, the capital interest rate increased marginally from August 18 - 20. As the tax payment disturbance ended and the central bank continued to inject funds, the capital interest rate began to decline on August 21. Looking ahead, although the capital is about to enter the end - of - month period, the net injections of repurchase and MLF in August both being 30 billion yuan indicate the central bank's clear attitude of caring for liquidity. Only short - term fluctuations are expected during the end - of - month period [7]. - The net payment scale of government bonds decreased. From August 18 - 24, the net payment of government bonds was about 294.8 billion yuan, about 115.6 billion yuan less than that from August 11 - 17. Among them, the net financing of national bonds was about 115.6 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 179.2 billion yuan. From August 25 - 31, the net payment of government bonds is expected to be 211.5 billion yuan, with the net financing of national bonds about - 100 million yuan and that of local government bonds about 211.6 billion yuan [8]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - The maturity yields of NCDs rose overall. As of August 22, 2025, the 1 - month and 3 - month NCD maturity yields were 1.4950% and 1.5500% respectively, up 4 and 3 basis points compared to August 15. The 1 - year NCD maturity yield was 1.6650%, up 3 basis points compared to August 15 [9]. - The net financing of NCDs remained negative. From August 18 - 24, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 245.5 billion yuan, compared with about - 132.5 billion yuan from August 11 - 17. From August 25 - 31, the maturity repayment of NCDs is expected to be 751.8 billion yuan, and the pressure of maturity renewal is slightly weaker than the previous week's 794.7 billion yuan [9]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market declined. From August 18 - 22, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.31%, compared with 107.83% from August 11 - 15. On August 22 and August 15, the calculated leverage ratios of the inter - bank bond market were about 107.57% and 107.68% respectively [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - This week, the funding situation unexpectedly tightened and then marginally eased, with interest rates moving "first up and then down." There was a divergence between expectations and reality, mainly due to the resonance of traditional tax periods and non - traditional stock - bond market linkages. The central bank increased and advanced liquidity injections to stabilize expectations and block the spread of redemption pressure [1]. - In the coming week, the month - end funding situation will face another "test." The probability of a significant and continuous increase is low, but fluctuations may be more obvious than in previous years. Attention should be paid to the central bank's precise hedging and the effective restoration of large banks' willingness to lend [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Month - end Funding Re - "Challenging" - This week, the funding situation unexpectedly tightened, and the central bank increased its injections to ease it. Interest rate fluctuations increased, running at relatively high levels since August. The willingness of large state - owned banks to lend decreased rapidly, and the CD issuance price fluctuated. The central bank's large - scale injections stabilized the funding situation, with a more advanced care rhythm [11]. - The expected and actual funding situation deviated this week. The resonance of the tax period and bond fund redemptions amplified the fluctuations. On August 18, when the redemption pressure was high, the net subscription index of bond - type funds dropped significantly [17]. - Looking ahead to next week, the funding situation will face a "test." The potential redemption pressure and large - scale expirations in the open market, as well as the restoration of large banks' willingness to lend, are the key factors. The smooth "passage" of the funding situation requires the central bank's precise hedging and the effective restoration of large banks' willingness to lend [21]. 3.2. Open Market: Next Week's Maturity Scale Increases Significantly - From August 18 - 22, the open market had a net injection of 126.52 billion yuan. From August 25 - 29, the open market maturity will be 237.7 billion yuan, including 207.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase and 30 billion yuan of MLF [25]. 3.3. Government Bonds: Next Week's Issuance Scale Declines - This week, the government bonds had a net payment of 294.8 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 351.6 billion yuan, with a net payment of 211.5 billion yuan [33]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in August 2025 will be about 1.32%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.08 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 0.09 pct [41]. 3.5. Money Market: Large Banks' Net Lending Declines Significantly - Interest rates moved "first up and then down." Overnight rates ran above 1.4%. SHIBOR, CNH HIBOR, interest rate swap closing rates, and bill rates all changed to varying degrees. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, while that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged treasury bond repurchase increased [44][54]. - This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 2.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.1745 trillion yuan compared with last week. The net lending of large state - owned banks decreased significantly [58]. 3.6. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1. Primary Market: Next Week's Maturity Scale Declines Slightly - This week, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 54.81 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 24.92 billion yuan, a decrease in both issuance scale and net financing compared with last week. By entity, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale, and others had the highest net financing. By term, 1Y CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 9M CDs had the highest net financing. Next week, the maturity scale will be 75.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.67 billion yuan [67]. 3.6.2. Secondary Market: Yields Increase - Yields of CDs of all terms and grades increased. For example, the yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y AAA - grade CDs all increased [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Tax payment period led to an increase in capital prices, and the central bank conducted net open - market operations to support the capital market during the tax payment period [1]. - Certificate of deposit (CD) yields showed a differentiated trend, and the treasury bond yield curve steepened. CD net financing decreased, the issuance rate increased, and the average issuance term lengthened [2]. - Next week, the net issuance of government bonds is expected to increase while the net payment is expected to decrease. This week, the inter - bank leverage ratio declined slightly [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Capital Market - Tax payment period caused an increase in capital prices. This week, R001 closed at 1.44% (previous value: 1.34%), DR001 at 1.40% (previous value: 1.31%), R007 at 1.49% (previous value: 1.45%), and DR007 at 1.48% (previous value: 1.43%). The spread between DR007 and 7 - day OMO was 7.98bp. The 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer and discount rate closed at 0.63% (previous value: 0.70%) [1]. - The central bank conducted net open - market operations to support the capital market during the tax payment period. In the four trading days this week, the central bank conducted continuous net withdrawals, with a cumulative net withdrawal of 530.9 billion yuan. On Friday (the tax payment deadline), the central bank conducted a net reverse - repurchase injection of 11.6 billion yuan and a 50 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation. In total, the central bank's reverse - repurchase injection was 71.18 billion yuan, reverse - repurchase maturity was 112.67 billion yuan, and outright reverse - repurchase injection was 50 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 8.51 billion yuan [1]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - CD yields showed a differentiated trend. This week, the 3M CD yield decreased by 0.50bp to 1.53%, the 6M yield increased by 1.26bp to 1.60%, and the 1Y yield increased by 2.25bp to 1.64%. The 1Y - 3M term spread widened. The spread between the 1 - year CD and R007 narrowed by 0.95bp to 15.42bp. The 1 - year treasury bond yield increased by 1.59bp to 1.37%, the 10 - year treasury bond yield increased by 5.74bp to 1.75%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield increased by 8.75bp to 2.05% [2]. - CD net financing decreased, the issuance rate increased, and the average issuance term lengthened. This week, CD net financing was - 13.11 billion yuan (previous value: 17.73 billion yuan). The 1 - year CD issuance rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.64%, 1.64%, 1.73%, and 1.73% respectively, with changes of + 1.08bp, + 0.67bp, + 0.32bp, and - 3.63bp compared to the previous values. In terms of the issuance structure, the weighted average issuance term this week was 8.1M (previous value: 6.4M), with 7.92 billion yuan of 3M CDs issued, 13.57 billion yuan of 6M CDs issued, and 29.41 billion yuan of 1Y CDs issued [2]. 3. Institutional Behavior - Next week, the net issuance of government bonds is expected to increase while the net payment is expected to decrease. This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 21.46 billion yuan, and the net issuance of local bonds was - 1.37 billion yuan, with a total net issuance of government bonds of 20.09 billion yuan and a total net payment of 42.84 billion yuan. Next week, the expected net issuance of treasury bonds is 32.19 billion yuan, and the expected net issuance of local bonds is 20.88 billion yuan, with a total of 53.07 billion yuan, and the total net payment is expected to be 27.16 billion yuan [3]. - This week, the inter - bank leverage ratio declined slightly. The average daily volume of pledged repurchase transactions in the inter - bank market was 8.15 trillion yuan (previous value: 8.11 trillion yuan). The daily volume of pledged repurchase transactions first increased to 8.36 trillion yuan and then decreased to 7.70 trillion yuan. The average daily inter - bank market leverage ratio was 109.01% (previous value: 109.51%) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From August 4 to August 8, 2025, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and carried out 700 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. After the cross - month period, the funding rate declined. From August 4 to August 10, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, the overall yield to maturity of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) decreased, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. From August 11 to August 17, the expected net payment of government bonds is 360.1 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 907.1 billion yuan [2]. - The outright reverse repurchase operation has more flexible timing compared to the medium - term lending facility (MLF). The central bank's operations in different months are to address various pressures on the liquidity, such as large - scale NCD maturities, tax payment months, and new bond issuance policies. The 6 - month outright reverse repurchase in August may be operated in the middle of the month to assist in stabilizing the funding situation during the tax payment period [7]. - The funding situation eased at the beginning of the month. From August 4 to August 8, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 5.6 and 8.7 basis points respectively compared to the period from July 28 to August 1. The average values of DR007 and R007 decreased by 8.2 and 11.4 basis points respectively. In the future, the funding situation is expected to remain stable and loose overall, but the central bank's goal of preventing "idle funds" may limit the significant decline of the funding rate center [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Funding Situation - **Outright Reverse Repurchase and 7 - day Reverse Repurchase**: From August 4 to August 8, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 53.65 billion yuan. On August 8, it carried out 70 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. The net investment of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase was 30 billion yuan. The maturity scales of 3 - month and 6 - month outright reverse repurchases in August are 40 billion and 50 billion yuan respectively [6]. - **Funding Rate**: From August 4 to August 8, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.31% and 1.35% respectively, down 5.6 and 8.7 basis points from July 28 - August 1. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.45% and 1.47% respectively, down 8.2 and 11.4 basis points from July 28 - August 1 [8]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From August 4 to August 10, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 37.06 billion yuan, an increase of about 8.3 billion yuan compared to July 28 - August 3. From August 11 to August 17, the expected net payment of government bonds is 36.01 billion yuan [8]. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Yield to Maturity**: As of August 8, 2025, the yields to maturity of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 1 - year NCDs were 1.4490%, 1.5300%, and 1.6175% respectively, down 4, 1, and 2 basis points from August 1 [9]. - **Net Financing Amount**: From August 4 to August 10, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 17.76 billion yuan, compared with about 1 billion yuan from July 28 to August 3. From August 11 to August 17, the expected maturity repayment amount of NCDs is 907.1 billion yuan, and the pressure of maturity renewal has increased compared to the previous week [9]. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From August 4 to August 8, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.96%, up from the average of 107.63% from July 28 to August 1. On August 8 and August 1, the calculated leverage ratios were about 108.07% and 108.10% respectively [10].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1120 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, while a total of 5448 billion yuan in reverse repos matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan from the open market [1] - Last week, the central bank's reverse repos resulted in a net withdrawal of 5365 billion yuan, and a 7000 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation was conducted on Friday with a three-month term [1] - The overnight interest rates remained low, with R001 and DR001 hovering around 1.35% and 1.31%, respectively, while the seven-day rates R007 and DR007 oscillated around 1.47% and 1.45% [1] Group 2 - This week, the scale of reverse repos maturing will decrease to 11267 billion yuan, primarily due to a large amount maturing on Monday, with subsequent days around 1500 billion yuan [2] - The net government bond payment scale will rise to 4101 billion yuan, mainly concentrated on Monday and Friday, with August 15 being the tax deadline and mid-month reserve payment date [2] - Despite the large amount of reverse repos maturing and increased government bond payments, the liquidity in the market is expected to remain loose due to the central bank's stabilizing stance [2][3] Group 3 - The government bond payment pressure is concentrated on Monday (2344 billion yuan) and Friday (1847 billion yuan), marking a high point for the month [3] - The total reverse repos maturing this week is 11267 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous week's 16632 billion yuan, but still above one trillion yuan [3] - The PBOC's recent 7000 billion yuan three-month buyout reverse repo operation has raised market attention regarding future liquidity management, with expectations for a second buyout operation in August [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the central bank conducted a small - scale net injection of funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The liquidity situation showed minor fluctuations during the month - end transition but returned to stability afterward. From July 28 to August 3, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, the yields of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined overall, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market remained basically stable. From August 4 to August 10, the expected net payment of government bonds is 33.9 billion yuan, and the maturing scale of NCDs is about 59.83 billion yuan [2]. - The central bank is expected to continue to support the liquidity situation. In August, with the maturity of MLF and outright reverse repurchase, considering the need to stabilize expectations, the central bank is likely to maintain its supportive stance towards the liquidity [5]. - The liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant in August, and the funding rates are likely to stay at a relatively low level. At the beginning of the month, the liquidity may experience seasonal easing, but attention should be paid to the issuance rhythm of government bonds and the large - scale maturity of NCDs during the month [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operations had a net injection of 690 million yuan. From August 4 to August 8, 166.32 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature. In July, the central bank injected 10 billion yuan of liquidity through MLF and 20 billion yuan through outright reverse repurchase. In August, 30 billion yuan of MLF and 90 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase will mature [5]. - **Funding Rates**: From July 28 to August 1, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 7.3 and 5.2 basis points respectively compared with the period from July 21 to July 25. The average values of DR007 and R007 decreased by 0.7 and increased by 2.8 basis points respectively. In July, the funding rates fluctuated significantly, and in August, they are expected to remain low, but it is difficult to decline further compared with early July [6]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From July 28 to August 3, the net payment of government bonds was about 28.76 billion yuan, 2.84 billion yuan less than the previous week. From August 4 to August 10, the expected net payment is 33.9 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Yields of Maturing NCDs**: As of August 1, 2025, the yields of 1M, 3M, and 1Y NCDs decreased by 7, 4, and 4 basis points respectively compared with July 25. The decline was due to the stabilization of funding rates and the partial recovery of the bond market [8]. - **Net Financing of NCDs**: From July 28 to August 3, the net financing of NCDs was about 1 billion yuan, turning positive from - 56.08 billion yuan in the previous week. From August 4 to August 10, the maturing repayment amount of NCDs is expected to be 59.83 billion yuan, with an increased pressure on renewal compared with the previous week [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From July 28 to August 1, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.63%, basically the same as the previous week. On August 1 and July 25, the calculated leverage ratios were about 108.10% and 107.27% respectively [11].