Group 1 - The investment rating of the report is not provided [1] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that in the peak summer season, with the seasonal increase in domestic thermal coal demand and the fermentation of positive news such as "anti - involution", the market sentiment is optimistic, driving coal prices up. It is expected that coal prices will remain strong in August [5] Group 3 Supply - As of July 18, the average daily output of raw coal from 462 sample mines nationwide was 5.697 million tons, a slight increase of 10,300 tons per day compared to the end of June [5] - According to SteelHome data, in the first two weeks of July, the arrival volume of seaborne coal in China was 10.864 million tons, with an average daily arrival of 776,000 tons, a significant improvement from 608,000 tons per day in June [5] Demand - In July, the coal consumption of power plants increased seasonally. As of July 17, the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provincial power plants was 2.419 million tons, a weekly increase of 271,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provincial power plants was 3.911 million tons, a weekly increase of 360,000 tons [5] Inventory - According to iFind data, as of July 24, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.097 million tons, a weekly increase of 112,000 tons [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market atmosphere is continuously optimistic due to the resonance of favorable factors such as the peak season and the "anti - involution" news. The coal price is expected to maintain strong operation in August [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Market Situation - The domestic thermal coal demand has a seasonal rebound as it enters the critical period of peak - summer coal consumption. Some positive news such as "anti - involution" has fermented, spreading an optimistic market atmosphere and driving up coal prices [4]. Supply Side - As of the period ending on July 18, the daily average output of raw coal from 462 sample mines nationwide was 5.697 million tons, a slight increase of 10,300 tons per day compared to the end of June [4]. - Steel Union data shows that in the first two weeks of July, the seaborne coal arrival volume in China was 10.864 million tons, equivalent to a daily arrival of 776,000 tons, a significant improvement from 608,000 tons per day in June [4]. Demand Side - In July, the coal consumption of power plants increased seasonally. As of July 17, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.419 million tons, a weekly increase of 271,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.911 million tons, a weekly increase of 360,000 tons [4]. Inventory Side - iFind data shows that as of July 24, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.097 million tons, a weekly increase of 112,000 tons [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Cautiously bearish [1] - PP: Cautiously bearish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of the oil market is gradually rising, and the oil price still has room to compress; some chemical products are affected by factors such as inventory, production capacity, and policies, showing different trends of rise and fall [1][2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The supply pressure is gradually rising, and the oil price still has room to compress [1]. - **Basic logic**: The oil market is currently in a situation of weak expectations and strong reality, with certain support below. However, the pressure brought by OPEC's production increase is gradually released, and the oil price center still has room to decline. In terms of supply, Guyana's average crude oil production in the first half of the year was 639,000 barrels per day; the EU introduced a new round of sanctions against Russia, reducing the upper limit of Russian crude oil sanctions to about $50 per barrel. In terms of demand, India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% from the previous month to 20.32 million tons, the lowest level since February; China's crude oil imports in June were 49.888 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 279.386 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. In terms of inventory, as of the week of July 18, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels to 422 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels to 232.8 million barrels, distillate inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels to 106.9 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve SPR decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels [3][4]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the medium and long term, due to the impact of new energy and the expansion cycle of OPEC+, the supply of crude oil will be in excess, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate in the range of $60 - $70 per barrel. In the short term, the daily line rebounds, but the upside pressure is strong. The strategy is to lightly lay out short positions and buy call options to protect the positions. SC focuses on the range of [510 - 525] [5]. LPG - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The oil price stabilizes, and the fundamentals of LPG are okay, leading to a rebound in LPG [1]. - **Basic logic**: The core driver is that the cost-side oil price stabilizes, and the fundamentals of LPG improve marginally. Currently, the downstream chemical demand is rising, and the basis is at a high level, so the short-term upward momentum of LPG increases. As of July 28, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged from the previous period. In terms of cost and profit, as of July 28, the profit of PDH devices remained unchanged from the previous period, while the profit of alkylation devices decreased by 12.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous period. On the supply side, as of the week of July 25, the total LPG commodity volume decreased by 0.04 million tons compared with the previous week, and the civil LPG commodity volume decreased by 0.18 million tons. On the demand side, as of the week of July 25, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil increased by 1.35pct, 1.38pct, and 1.99pct respectively compared with the previous period. On the inventory side, as of the week of July 25, the refinery inventory increased by 0.4 million tons compared with the previous period, and the port inventory decreased by 16.59 million tons [6][7]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the medium and long term, after the geopolitical risks are released, from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, and the valuation is neutral. Technically and in the short term, the daily line stabilizes and rebounds. It is recommended to sell put options. PG focuses on the range of [3950 - 4050] [8]. L (Polyethylene) - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals are under pressure [1]. - **Basic logic**: The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The coal-based proportion of plastics is 20%, and the proportion of old production capacity is 14%. Most of the production capacity has been shut down for a long time or replaced. Attention should be paid to policy changes. The marginal improvement of agricultural film operations should be noted, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of raw material replenishment. The restart of devices increases, and the output is expected to increase this week. In the medium and long term, high production limits the rebound space [9][10]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to take profits on long positions, and the industry can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging. L focuses on the range of [7300 - 7450] [10][11]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The number of warehouse receipts increases, and long positions should be reduced [1]. - **Basic logic**: The number of warehouse receipts increases. The coal-based proportion of PP is 19%, and the proportion of old production capacity is 8%. Most of them have been shut down for a long time or replaced. The demand fails to keep up, and the supply is under continuous pressure. The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period. From January to June, the cumulative exports increased by 21% year-on-year, and the export profit margin is relatively high in the same period. Exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate in the future. In the medium and long term, the production pressure in the third quarter is relatively high, which limits the upside space [13][14]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to reduce long positions. PP focuses on the range of [7050 - 7250] [14][15]. PVC - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The price of calcium carbide has been falling continuously, and long positions should be reduced [1]. - **Basic logic**: The market sentiment cools down, and the price of calcium carbide has been falling continuously. The proportion of old PVC production capacity is 11%. Attention should be paid to the policy changes in the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks. The 900,000 - ton devices of Fujian Wanhua and Bohua Development have started trial - runs one after another. The weak fundamentals limit the rebound space. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of warehouse receipt registration [18][19]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to reduce long positions. V focuses on the range of [5100 - 5300] [19][20]. PX - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there are still positive factors under the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity". Attention should be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips [1]. - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, there are not many changes in domestic and foreign devices. Some domestic devices are under maintenance or have reduced loads, while others have increased loads. In August, some devices are planned to increase loads or restart. Overseas device operating rates are temporarily stable. The PXN spread is at a low level in the same period in the past five years, and the short - process PX - MX spread is positive. The gasoline cracking spread and the comparison between aromatics reforming and oil blending show that the cost of aromatics reforming is more cost - effective. The weekly output of PX has decreased slightly, and the international PX device operating rate has declined. The import volume in June is at a relatively low level in the past five years. On the demand side, there are some changes in PTA device maintenance and new device production. The PTA spot and futures processing fees have increased. The weekly operating rate and output of PTA remain stable and are at a relatively high level in the same period in the past five years. In general, the supply and demand are in a tight balance, the PX inventory is decreasing but still at a high level, the PXN is not low, the basis is strong, and there are still positive factors under the policy [21][22]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips. PX focuses on the range of [6910 - 7030] [22][23]. PTA/PR - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. Recently, there are relatively few changes in device operations. Later, new PTA devices will be put into production, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase. The demand side is seasonally weak. Stimulated by the "anti - involution" macro - policy, the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The tight - balance expectation of TA fundamentals is loosening. In the short term, affected by the "anti - involution" macro - policy, there are positive opportunities on the supply side, but the TA processing fee is neutral. Be cautious about going long at low levels [1]. - **Basic logic**: The supply - side device changes are relatively small recently, but new PTA devices will be put into production later, increasing the supply - side pressure. The demand side is seasonally weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The PTA fundamentals are expected to change from a tight balance to a looser situation. In the short term, there are positive factors on the supply side due to the policy, but the TA processing fee is neutral [24][25]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on dips. TA focuses on the range of [4800 - 4880] [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still lower than the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The terminal demand is in the traditional off - season, and orders continue to decline. In July, the supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the low inventory also supports the futures price. Recently, there is still positive sentiment under the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", and the market is oscillating strongly [1]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still at a low level compared with the same period. Some domestic devices have restarted, while others are under maintenance or have reduced loads. Overseas, some devices have restarted, and some have maintenance plans. The weekly maintenance loss of MEG is at a high level in the same period in the past five years, the weekly operating rate has increased, and the weekly output has increased slightly. The demand side is affected by the "anti - involution" policy, and the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The polyester product inventory has decreased, but the terminal weaving is still weak. The social and port inventories of MEG are at a low level compared with the same period [26][27]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low levels. EG focuses on the range of [4420 - 4580] [27][28]. Glass - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The policy expectation cools down, and the futures price fluctuates greatly [2]. - **Basic logic**: At the macro level, the market has been fermenting around the "anti - involution" policy expectation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are about to be introduced, which has reignited market sentiment, and related varieties have continued to be strong, and the price of glass has risen significantly. At the same time, the strength of coal - related varieties has led to the expectation of cost increase. The fundamentals of glass have improved, the corporate profitability has improved, the output has increased slightly, especially the corporate inventory has continued to decline to a five - month low, and the comprehensive demand for glass in the off - season has remained resilient, significantly boosting market confidence. In the short term, the futures price is boosted by the macro - policy, and the continuous inventory reduction enhances market confidence. As long as the policy expectation logic is not falsified, the price center will continue to move up. In general, the futures price fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate and production capacity sectors, the futures price may continue to rise. If the demand remains weak, supply contraction is needed to have a strong upward space. In late July, it is a period of intensive macro - policies, the macro - sentiment repair is difficult to be falsified, but the optimistic sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price fluctuates widely [30][31]. - **Strategy recommendation**: FG focuses on the range of [1170 - 1230] [31]. Soda Ash - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The exchange has issued a risk warning, and the price fluctuates widely [2]. - **Basic logic**: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, the trading atmosphere in the glass and coal markets has become stronger, which has boosted the industrial sentiment and driven up the futures price of soda ash. The inventory of soda ash plants has accumulated again, reaching a new historical high, but the market reaction has been calm, and the domestic spot market prices have remained stable with a slight decline. Recently, in the soda ash market, some devices are under maintenance while others are restarting. The overall supply has slightly increased, the capacity utilization rate has increased, and the soda ash output has increased. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has continued to accumulate, reaching a new historical high, and the market supply surplus pressure is heavy. The downstream support is general, with only terminal rigid - demand consumption. The short - term demand in the glass market is mediocre, some production lines in the photovoltaic glass industry have been cold - repaired, and the demand in the light - soda industry remains at a low level, maintaining a just - in - time procurement model, which has little impact on boosting the demand for soda ash. Recently, the soda ash futures price has been mainly affected by commodity sentiment fluctuations, and the fundamentals are difficult to provide sufficient driving force. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and technical operations [33][34]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The inventory of soda ash plants has decreased month - on - month. Follow the sentiment of the coal and glass futures markets. The exchange has issued a risk warning, the price fluctuates greatly, and the price falls back under the pressure of the annual line. There is a short - term callback risk. SA focuses on the range of [1280 - 1350] [2]. Caustic Soda - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The upstream and downstream are linked, and the price corrects from a high level [2]. - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, the current average capacity utilization rate is 84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. Some previously reduced - production or shut - down devices in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China have gradually increased their loads, and the capacity utilization rate has increased to varying degrees. In Central China, the low price of liquid chlorine has led to losses for alkali plants, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. Overall, the operation is at a high level, and with the expected commissioning of new production capacity, the supply tends to be saturated. In terms of demand, the production of the main downstream product, alumina, has increased, but the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry in Zhejiang has been continuously low, and downstream customers are cautious about high prices and mainly purchase for rigid demand. In May, the export scale shrank, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.16%. In terms of cost and profit, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, the subsidy for liquid chlorine has decreased, and the overall profit of the chlor - alkali industry has shown an upward trend. Currently, the inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 408,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.5%. In general, the weekly supply - demand fundamentals have weakened, the device maintenance has returned, the macro - policy expectation has cooled down, the alumina futures price has corrected, the subsidy for liquid

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA/PR, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, methanol, urea, asphalt, and propylene are all rated as "cautiously bearish", except for soda ash which is rated as "wide - range oscillation" and glass, caustic soda which are rated as "short - term correction" [1][2] 2. Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Entering the second half of the peak season, the pressure to increase production rises, and oil prices weaken [1][3] - LPG: Dragged by the cost side, with fair fundamentals, it follows the decline of oil prices [1][6] - L: Market sentiment cools down, with short - term supply pressure increasing and long - term high production limiting the rebound space [1][9] - PP: Market sentiment cools down, with demand lagging and supply under pressure in the short term, and high production pressure in the third quarter restricting the upside [1][12] - PVC: Market sentiment cools down, with weak spot price follow - up, inventory accumulation, and a weak fundamental pattern limiting the rebound [1][15] - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with macro - policy positives still remaining, and opportunities to buy on dips are worth attention [1][19] - PTA/PR: Recent device changes are relatively small, with expected increased supply pressure in the future and seasonal weakness in demand. There are short - term positive opportunities on the supply side, and attention should be paid to opportunities to go long on dips [1][22] - Ethylene glycol: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are low. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and there is support from low inventory. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [1][24] - Glass: Policy expectations cool down, and after a sharp rise, the volatility increases. There is a risk of correction [2][27] - Soda ash: Affected by policy expectations, the market sentiment is boosted, but there is a large inventory de - stocking pressure, with wide - range oscillations and a short - term correction risk [2][30] - Caustic soda: Supply returns, inventory accumulates, and there is a high - level correction pressure due to the cooling of market sentiment and the narrowing of liquid chlorine subsidies [2][33] - Methanol: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, demand is relatively good, and the market sentiment has declined. It is recommended to short on rallies [2][36] - Urea: The device operating load remains high, demand is weak domestically but good in exports. There is bottom support from coal prices, and attention should be paid to opportunities to short on rallies [2] - Asphalt: The cost - side oil price is weak, raw material supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - Propylene: The spot market is weak, and attention can be paid to short - spread or short - PP processing fee strategies [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market conditions**: On July 25, WTI decreased by 1.32%, Brent decreased by 1.02%, and SC increased by 0.85% [3] - **Basic logic**: The oil market shows a situation of weak expectations and strong reality. OPEC's production increase pressure is gradually released, and the key variable on the supply side is the change in US production. In terms of supply, there are new sanctions on Russia, and Norway's oil production has decreased. In terms of demand, China's imports have increased, and IEA's forecast for global oil demand growth has decreased. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude inventory has decreased [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, there is an oversupply, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, the oil price is weak. It is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. Pay attention to the range of SC [490 - 510] [5] LPG - **Market conditions**: On July 25, the PG main contract closed at 4037 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [6] - **Basic logic**: The cost - side oil price is the main drag, while the fundamental situation has marginally improved. Downstream chemical demand has rebounded, the basis is at a high level, and there is some support below. In terms of supply, the commodity volume has decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil have increased. In terms of inventory, refinery inventory has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased [7] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. In the short - term, it is weak, and previous long positions should pay attention to risks. Pay attention to the range of PG [3900 - 4000] [8] L - **Market conditions**: The prices of L contracts have increased, and the trading volume has decreased [10] - **Basic logic**: The exchange has restricted positions, and the short - term market sentiment has cooled down. The coal - based proportion is 20%, and the proportion of old - fashioned capacity is 14%. Spot replenishment willingness is insufficient, inventory has accumulated for 4 consecutive weeks, and the restart of devices is expected to increase production this week. High production in the long - term restricts the rebound space [11] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term market volatility is large. It is recommended to take profits on long positions, and the industry can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging. Pay attention to the range of L [7300 - 7500] [11] PP - **Market conditions**: The prices of PP contracts have increased, and the trading volume has increased slightly [13] - **Basic logic**: Market sentiment cools down. The coal - based proportion is 19%, and the proportion of old - fashioned capacity is 8%. Demand lags, supply is under pressure, and the warehouse receipt is at a high level in the same period. Exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate. In the third quarter, high production pressure restricts the upside [14] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term market volatility is large. It is recommended to reduce long positions. Pay attention to the range of PP [7050 - 7250] [14] PVC - **Market conditions**: The prices of PVC contracts have increased, and the trading volume has decreased [16] - **Basic logic**: Market sentiment cools down. The proportion of old - fashioned capacity is 11%, the spot price follows up weakly, the basis weakens, and there is short - term policy support at the bottom. Inventory has accumulated for 5 consecutive weeks, and new devices are being commissioned, with a weak fundamental pattern limiting the rebound [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term market volatility is large. It is recommended to reduce long positions. Pay attention to the range of V [5200 - 5450] [17] PX - **Market conditions**: The prices of PX contracts have increased, and the spot price has decreased [19] - **Basic logic**: There are few changes in domestic and foreign devices. The PXN spread is at a low level in the past five years, and the short - process PX - MX spread has increased. The international device operating rate has declined, and imports are at a low level in the past five years. Demand changes are small, and inventory is still high. There are still positives under the "anti - involution and elimination of backward capacity" policy, and attention should be paid to opportunities to buy on dips [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PX [6850 - 7120] [21] PTA - **Market conditions**: The PTA spot price and contract price have increased [22] - **Basic logic**: There are few device changes recently. There are planned device overhauls and new device commissions in the future. Demand is seasonally weak, and downstream polyester and terminal weaving start - up rates are slightly differentiated. TA social inventory has slightly decreased but is still high. There are short - term positive opportunities on the supply side, and attention should be paid to opportunities to go long on dips [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of TA [4780 - 4960] [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market conditions**: The ethylene glycol spot price and contract price have increased [24] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are low. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and there is support from low inventory. There is still positive sentiment from the "anti - involution and elimination of backward capacity" policy. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of EG [4400 - 4550] [26] Glass - **Market conditions**: The spot price has increased, the futures price has risen sharply, and the basis has weakened [28] - **Basic logic**: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, the market sentiment is strong, and the cost is expected to rise. The glass fundamentals have improved, with inventory reaching a five - month low. The short - term price center moves up, and it depends on whether there are substantial policies on real estate and capacity in the long - term [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1230 - 1360] [29] Soda Ash - **Market conditions**: The heavy - soda ash spot price has increased, the futures price has risen, the basis has weakened, and the warehouse receipt has increased [31] - **Basic logic**: Affected by policy expectations, the market sentiment of glass and coal is strong, boosting the soda ash futures price. However, the alkali plant inventory has reached a record high, and the supply has slightly increased. The downstream support is general, and the market is mainly affected by commodity sentiment [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SA [1310 - 1430] Caustic Soda - **Market conditions**: The flake caustic soda spot price has increased, the futures price has risen, and the basis has weakened [34] - **Basic logic**: The supply is approaching saturation, with an increase in the average capacity utilization rate and expected new capacity commissioning. The demand from the main downstream alumina has recovered, but non - aluminum demand is still weak. The export scale has shrunk, and the inventory has increased. There is a pressure for the futures price to correct from a high level [35] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of SH [2510 - 2630] [35] Methanol - **Market conditions**: The methanol spot price and futures price have increased [36] - **Basic logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, with the resumption of domestic overhauled devices and high overseas operating loads. The August arrivals are expected to be high. Demand is relatively good, but there is a risk of negative feedback from high prices. The social inventory has decreased but is still low, and the market sentiment has declined [36] - **Strategy recommendation**: Go short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of MA [2400 - 2520] Urea - **Basic logic**: The urea device operating load remains high, domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but exports are relatively good. There is bottom support from coal prices. The short - term domestic fundamentals are still loose, and the market sentiment has declined [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to opportunities to go short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of UR [1750 - 1780] [2] Asphalt - **Basic logic**: The cost - side oil price is weak, raw material supply is sufficient, with both supply and demand decreasing and inventory accumulation. The cracking spread is at a high level, and the valuation is high [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of BU [3540 - 3640] [2] Propylene - **Basic logic**: The coal - based proportion is 20%, the spot market is weak, and the market sentiment has cooled down. Attention can be paid to short - spread or short - PP processing fee strategies [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of PL [6500 - 6700] [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment for thermal coal remains optimistic, and port coal prices are operating strongly. It is expected that coal prices will maintain a strong trend in August [1][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the market sentiment is optimistic and port coal prices are operating strongly [1]. 3.2 Price Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Supply**: As of the period of July 18, the daily average output of raw coal from 462 sample mines nationwide was 5.697 million tons, a slight increase of 10,300 tons per day compared with the end of June. In terms of imports, from July 1 - 14, the seaborne coal arrival volume in China was 10.864 million tons, with an average daily arrival of 776,000 tons, a significant improvement from 608,000 tons per day in June [4]. - **Demand**: In July, the coal consumption of power plants increased seasonally. As of July 17, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.419 million tons, a weekly increase of 271,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.911 million tons, a weekly increase of 360,000 tons [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 24, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.097 million tons, a weekly increase of 112,000 tons [4]. - **Conclusion**: The peak season and positive news such as "anti - involution" have resonated, driving coal prices to continue rising. With the start of the construction of the super hydropower station on the Yarlung Zangbo River, the market sentiment remains optimistic [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the urgent measures taken by Guangzhou Gas Group to ensure stable natural gas supply amid increased electricity demand due to high temperatures in Guangdong Province [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The electricity consumption in the region has surged, leading to a significant increase in gas usage at power plants, with Nansha Power Company consuming approximately 77,000 tons of gas from January to May this year [1]. - It is projected that the gas consumption for July alone will reach 61,900 tons to maintain stable electricity supply during peak summer [1]. Group 2: Emergency Response Actions - In response to the rising gas demand, Guangzhou Gas Group urgently procured two LNG vessels, "Santiago" with a capacity of 65,000 tons and "Jiaxing" with 18,000 tons, to replenish gas storage [1]. - The company organized two coordination meetings before the vessels' arrival to enhance unloading efficiency, collaborating with various government departments to facilitate the process [1]. Group 3: Operational Achievements - This operation marks the first instance of simultaneous unloading of two vessels at the gas source station since its establishment, with a total of 83,000 tons (equivalent to 11.2 million cubic meters) of LNG successfully unloaded within five days [2]. - Following the completion of the unloading, the current gas storage level at the Guangzhou LNG emergency peak shaving gas source station has reached a safe high, ensuring a stable and orderly natural gas supply [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of ensuring energy supply for the public during the peak summer season, highlighting the government's commitment to maintaining stable economic and social development while addressing citizens' energy needs [1]. Group 1: Energy Supply Assurance - The National Energy Administration (NEA) is actively involved in ensuring energy supply during the peak summer season, which is a significant concern for the central government [1]. - The NEA's 12398 hotline is identified as a crucial platform for addressing public complaints and ensuring timely resolution of energy-related issues [1]. - The NEA stresses the need for all departments to prioritize energy supply work, closely monitor supply and demand changes, and ensure that there are no power cuts or restrictions [1]. Group 2: Government Responsibility - The NEA leadership, led by Wang Hongzhi, emphasizes the political responsibility to safeguard citizens' comfort during summer and support economic stability [1]. - There is a call for enhanced coordination among various departments to strengthen production and supply guarantees [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by the Linfen power grid during extreme heat conditions, emphasizing the dedication of the staff in ensuring stable electricity supply amidst record-high demand [1][3]. Group 1: Weather and Demand - Linfen has experienced continuous high temperatures since July, with midday highs exceeding 42°C, leading to unprecedented electricity demand [1]. - The power grid load has consistently surpassed 3.5 million kilowatts for seven consecutive days, marking a peak summer demand period [1]. Group 2: Staff Commitment and Actions - Ma Ning, a team leader at the power supply service command center, has been actively monitoring and managing service requests, processing an average of 80 repair orders daily [3]. - Ma Ning identified a recurring issue with circuit breakers and switch boxes tripping during peak hours, which was initially misattributed to low-voltage line faults [3][4]. - After thorough investigation, he pinpointed the root cause as mismatched switch capacities and loose screws, providing a precise diagnosis for repairs [4]. Group 3: Service Improvement Initiatives - The command center achieved a 100% timely response rate for fault repairs, and by mid-July, conducted 109 feedback calls, gathering 71 customer suggestions, with 26 implemented as service improvements [4]. - Ma Ning's proactive approach transformed the service model from reactive to anticipatory, enhancing customer satisfaction and service quality [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant rise in coal futures, particularly coking coal and coke, driven by supply constraints and seasonal demand increases [1][6][8] - The energy ETF (159930) saw a strong surge, with a trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan and an increase of over 4% at one point [1][3] - Major coal stocks, including Shanxi Coking Coal and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, reached their daily price limits, indicating strong market performance [3][4] Group 2 - The government announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel and coal, aimed at optimizing supply and eliminating outdated production capacity [4] - Coal production rates have been affected by environmental inspections, leading to a decrease in operational coal mines, which has tightened supply [4][7] - The price of thermal coal has rebounded, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price reaching 642 yuan per ton, a 5.4% increase from its lowest point earlier this year [5][6] Group 3 - The current market for thermal coal is characterized by high seasonal demand and tightening supply, with operational coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at a low utilization rate of 81.1% [7][8] - The inventory of coal at ports has decreased by 18.7% compared to the highest levels earlier this year, indicating a tightening supply situation [7] - The demand for electricity has increased due to high temperatures, leading to a rise in coal consumption for power generation [7][8]

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 焦炭首轮提涨落地，动力煤、焦煤价格齐涨 【2025.7.14-2025.7.20】 行业评级：中性 核心观点 发布日期：2025.7.21 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2024-07-26 2024-08-26 2024-09-26 2024-10-26 2024-11-26 2024-12-26 2025-01-26 2025-02-26 2025-03-26 2025-04-26 2025-05-26 2025-06-26 沪深300 煤炭指数 大同证券研究中心 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 ◆ 迎峰度夏进行时，动力煤价稳步攀升。当前动力煤市场呈现"旺 季需求主导、供给结构性收紧"的特征，受全国多地持续高温 影响，价格在高温驱动下稳步上涨。 ◆ 焦炭首轮提涨，焦煤价格继续上涨。在暴雨天气影响下，煤矿 产量恢复缓慢，"反内卷"政策和下游阶段性补库需求，以及 焦炭首轮提涨下，炼焦煤价格仍有继续上涨的可能。 ◆ 权益市场以涨为主，煤炭板块跑输指数。上半年 GD ...