Company - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 23.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 54% [3] - For Q2 2025, the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is around 13 billion yuan, which is a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 27% compared to Q1 2025 [3] - The company plans to spin off its overseas gold assets into a subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] - The company announced the acquisition of the RG gold mine in Kazakhstan for a preliminary consideration of 1.2 billion USD, with projected sales revenue of 473 million USD and net profit of 202 million USD for 2024 [6] Industry - The company is optimistic about the continued rise in gold and copper prices in 2025, driven by central bank purchases of gold to hedge against dollar credit risks and geopolitical uncertainties [7] - The copper industry is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2025, with prices likely to rise gradually following domestic stimulus policies and U.S. interest rate cuts [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold ETF funds is driven by rising geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties, leading to a heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3][4]. Group 1: Gold ETF Fund Performance - As of July 14, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) has risen by 0.65%, marking a three-day consecutive increase, with the latest price at 7.42 yuan [3]. - Over the past two weeks, the gold ETF fund has accumulated a total increase of 0.78% [3]. - The fund's latest share count reached 3.851 billion, a new high in nearly a month [4]. - The fund has seen a continuous net inflow of capital over the past six days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 87.7045 million yuan, totaling 194 million yuan, averaging a daily net inflow of 32.2992 million yuan [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Economic Indicators - The U.S. has increased tariffs on Canada to 35% and announced additional tariffs of 15% to 20% on most other trade partners, which has led to a rise in market risk aversion and increased gold prices [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs remains, with the effective date pushed to August 1, providing a three-week buffer for negotiations [4]. - Despite strong non-farm employment data in June, potential weaknesses in the private sector and labor market may create future economic uncertainties [4]. Group 3: Historical Performance and Metrics - The gold ETF fund has seen a net value increase of 87.16% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [5]. - The fund's highest monthly return since inception was 10.62%, with a maximum consecutive monthly increase of six months and a total increase of 16.53% [5]. - The fund's year-to-date relative drawdown is 0.40% as of July 11, 2025, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.37 for the past year [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to fully benefit from the rising gold prices, leading to high-speed growth in performance [6] - The first quarter of 2025 saw significant increases in revenue and profit, with total operating income reaching 2.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.85%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 483 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.1% [8] - The report highlights a substantial increase in unit selling prices for various minerals, with gold priced at 658.44 yuan per gram, up 40.25% year-on-year [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 7,221 million yuan - 2024: 9,026 million yuan (24.99% YoY growth) - 2025E: 12,523 million yuan (38.75% YoY growth) - 2026E: 13,828 million yuan (10.42% YoY growth) - 2027E: 14,780 million yuan (6.89% YoY growth) [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as follows: - 2023: 804 million yuan - 2024: 1,764 million yuan (119.46% YoY growth) - 2025E: 3,516 million yuan (99.29% YoY growth) - 2026E: 3,921 million yuan (11.50% YoY growth) - 2027E: 4,446 million yuan (13.39% YoY growth) [7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 31.73% in 2025E and 26.84% in 2026E [7] Cost and Production Insights - The report notes a slight decline in production volumes for gold, with production at 3.34 tons, down 6.89% year-on-year, while sales were 3.33 tons, down 7.04% year-on-year [8] - The cost of gold sales increased to 355.09 yuan per gram, up 11.51% year-on-year, while the total sustaining cost was 349.09 yuan per gram, up 28.09% year-on-year [8] - Domestic mining costs have significantly decreased, while overseas mining costs have increased due to lower ore grades and equipment updates [8] Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the company are as follows: - 2025E: 14.20 - 2026E: 12.73 - 2027E: 11.23 [7] - The report indicates that the company is likely to continue releasing performance elasticity during the rising gold price cycle, maintaining the "Buy" rating [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated significant growth in revenue and profit due to rising gold prices and strict cost control measures, with a notable increase in gold production and sales efficiency [1][10]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.76 billion yuan, up 119% year-on-year [1]. - The gold mining business generated 8 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 88% of total revenue, with a gross profit margin of 47%, an increase of 11 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price of gold was 524 yuan per gram, a 20% increase year-on-year, while the cost of gold sales decreased by 1% to 278 yuan per gram [3]. Production and Sales - The company produced 15.2 tons of gold in 2024, a 6% increase year-on-year, with sales also reaching 15.2 tons, up 5% year-on-year [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.4 billion yuan, a 30% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 480 million yuan, up 141% year-on-year [4]. Cost Management - The company successfully reduced gold sales costs despite rising operational costs in Q1 2025, with expectations of a return to normal cost levels in subsequent quarters [4][10]. - The cost of gold sales in Q1 2025 increased by 11.5% year-on-year, primarily due to increased mining efforts and lower ore grades [4]. Expansion and Exploration - The company is actively expanding production capacity and exploring new mining opportunities, with several key projects underway to enhance output [5][9]. - The company has initiated a three-year exploration plan to increase resource reserves across all mining sites, focusing on both internal exploration and potential acquisitions [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and has significant potential for gold production growth, with projected net profits of 3.037 billion yuan, 3.791 billion yuan, and 4.246 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 72.11%, 24.86%, and 11.98% respectively [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, driven by rising gold prices and improved operational efficiency [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 25.935 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.81% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 67.19% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.026 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.62% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 15.86% [1]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.030 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 45.19% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.74% [1]. Production and Sales - The company's gold production in Q1 2025 was 11.87 tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.31% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.60% [2]. - Gold sales reached 10.99 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.98% [2]. - The average gold price in Shanghai for Q1 2025 was 671 yuan per gram, up 36.9% year-on-year and 8.9% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 15.57% and 5.63%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 1.01 percentage points and 0.06 percentage points [3]. - The period expense ratio decreased to 4.89%, down 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Specific expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 0.14%, 2.80%, 0.38%, and 1.57%, respectively, all showing year-on-year declines [3]. Project Development - The company is focusing on expanding production capacity and has initiated the development of gold mining projects in Gansu province [3]. - A project meeting was held to optimize the overall planning of the gold mining project, which has passed expert review [3]. - The project is expected to integrate mining rights and aims to achieve an annual gold production of 5-6 tons from over 80 tons of available gold resources [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to continue high growth in performance, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 5.338 billion, 6.555 billion, and 7.950 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The expected year-on-year growth rates for net profit are 80.84%, 22.80%, and 21.29% for the respective years [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 25.9, 21.1, and 17.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price on April 28, 2025 [4][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 was driven by rising gold prices, with revenue reaching 25.935 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.81% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 67.19% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.026 billion yuan, up 46.62% year-on-year and 15.86% quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong profitability [1]. - The average gold price in Q1 2025 was 2807 USD/ounce, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.3% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit increase of 330 million yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by gross profit growth of 1.28 billion yuan [2]. - The company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 were 15.57% and 5.63%, respectively, showing slight improvements compared to the previous year [1][2]. Resource Expansion and Business Development - The company invested 590 million yuan in exploration in 2024, resulting in an additional gold resource of 58.8 tons [3]. - The company successfully acquired exploration rights for the Daqiao gold mine and completed a 70% stake acquisition in Baotou Changtai Mining [3]. Future Projections - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 6.149 billion yuan, 6.744 billion yuan, and 7.722 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 20, and 18 [4][5]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 82.518 billion yuan in 2024 to 121.565 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.8% [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the upward fluctuation in gold prices and plans to expand its gold mining operations [3][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 18.959 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 8.88% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.48%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 156 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.52% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 116.59% [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue and costs both decreased, with revenues down 8.88% year-over-year and costs down 9.34%. The decline in costs was greater than that of revenues, leading to an increase in gross profit to 606 million RMB and a gross margin of 3.20% [2]. - The company experienced a significant increase in investment income, up 34.32% year-over-year, primarily due to increased returns from its investment in the Wanguo Gold Group [2]. Strategic Outlook - The company aims to enhance its gold mining operations and is accelerating the construction of the Liaoshang Gold Mine project while seeking opportunities to acquire quality mines. The outlook for gold prices in 2025-2026 is positive, with expectations of continued upward movement [3][4]. - The report highlights that recent tariff impacts have led to historical highs in gold prices, suggesting a shift in asset preferences towards gold amid rising uncertainties in the global political and economic landscape [3]. Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.74, 0.93, and 1.29 RMB, respectively. The target price is set at 12.18 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.5 for 2025, which reflects a 20% discount compared to the average PE of comparable companies [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue of 4.321 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.84% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 185.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 694 million yuan, up 37.91% year-on-year and 55.6% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The increase in gold sales and prices has positively impacted the company's performance, with gold sales volume rising 31.8% quarter-on-quarter to 2.03 tons, and the average selling price of gold increasing by 20% compared to the average price in 2024 [2] - The company has effectively managed costs, resulting in a significant increase in unit gross profit. The unit gross profit for gold rose to 511 yuan/g, a 26.5% increase from 404 yuan/g in 2024, while the unit gross profit for silver increased by 34.1% to 3.89 yuan/g [3] - The company is making progress in its mining projects, with plans to produce no less than 8 tons of gold by 2025. Recent acquisitions in the Yunnan province are expected to enhance gold resource reserves and exploration rights [4] Financial Data and Valuation - The company forecasts revenue growth from 8.106 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.983 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.20% [11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 1.424 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.187 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 18.90% [11] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is expected to decrease from 39.77 in 2023 to 13.53 in 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [11]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of rising gold prices is boosting the sales of gold jewelry and investment gold, with the industry likely to experience a structural market driven by price increases and category differentiation in 2024 [1] Group 1: Gold Price Outlook - The report maintains a positive outlook on rising gold prices, which are expected to enhance inventory value and gross margins for gold jewelry brands with low hedging ratios [1] - International gold prices have surpassed $3,500 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and the weakening of the US dollar, leading to increased gold reserves by central banks globally [1] Group 2: Category Differentiation - While the sales volume of weight-based gold products may face pressure, fixed-price investment gold and diamond-studded products are expected to benefit from rising gold prices, accelerating terminal sales [2] - Brands with a higher sales contribution from fixed-price, diamond-studded, and investment gold categories are projected to show better sales growth by Q1 2025 [2] Group 3: Channel Expansion - The expansion of channel networks is crucial for supporting performance, with new store openings and terminal sales driving wholesale shipment volumes [3] - The company anticipates steady net growth in channel expansion in 2024, particularly for brands with a high proportion of sales from weight-based gold and investment gold [3] - The gold jewelry sector is characterized by low valuations and strong domestic demand, with expectations of a recovery in same-store sales boosting valuations [3]