Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the rise in gold prices will slow down next year due to reduced purchases by central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but expectations of interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar will support upward momentum, with gold prices expected to reach $4,800 per ounce by Q4 next year [1] Group 1: Gold Market - The rise in gold prices is expected to slow down as central banks and ETFs reduce their purchases [1] - Factors supporting gold prices include anticipated interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and strong retail demand from China [1] - Gold prices are projected to reach $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of next year [1] Group 2: Silver Market - This year is expected to be a peak period for silver shortages, with silver price trends likely lagging behind gold next year [1] - Investment demand is anticipated to continue driving silver prices upward [1] Group 3: Other Precious Metals - Platinum prices are expected to be $1,775 per ounce next year [1] - Palladium prices are projected to be $1,325 per ounce next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold is projected to potentially exceed $5000 per ounce by 2026 due to deteriorating global growth prospects, renewed trade tensions, compromised independence of the Federal Reserve, and a sell-off in the stock market [1] Group 1 - Factors contributing to the potential rise in gold prices include worsening global growth outlook and trade tensions [1] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is perceived to be at risk, which may influence gold prices [1] - A significant sell-off in the stock market is also identified as a factor that could drive gold prices higher [1] Group 2 - Conversely, if the U.S. economic growth outlook improves, the dollar unexpectedly strengthens, and the Federal Reserve adopts a hawkish stance, spot gold prices could fall to $3500 per ounce by 2026 [1] - The potential decline in gold prices is contingent on positive economic indicators from the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a rebound, indicating a strengthened bullish sentiment and potential for further upward movement, with targets set at $4,380 or higher [1][5]. Price Movement Summary - On December 11, gold opened at $4,224.45 per ounce, reached a high of $4,285.66, and closed at $4,279.56, marking a daily increase of $55.11 or 1.3% [1]. - The daily trading range was $81.35, with a low of $4,204.31 [1]. Influencing Factors - The increase in gold prices is supported by buying pressure and a significant rise in initial jobless claims in the U.S., which marked the largest weekly increase since the pandemic [3]. - The continued decline of the U.S. dollar index has also contributed to the strengthening of gold prices, alongside robust demand for silver [3]. Market Outlook - On December 12, gold opened weakly due to profit-taking but still showed bullish demand, with expectations of a continued decline in the dollar index [3]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including the November non-farm payrolls and CPI, are anticipated to influence gold prices positively or maintain high volatility [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong rebound in November, dispelling bearish patterns and enhancing the outlook for new highs [7]. - Weekly charts show that gold is maintaining momentum above the 5-10 week moving averages, suggesting a bullish trend [7]. - Daily charts indicate that gold has broken through recent resistance levels, with expectations to target $4,320 and $4,380 in the near term [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,260 and $4,245, while resistance levels are at $4,310 and $4,340 [9]. - For silver, support is noted at $62.50 and $61.65, with resistance at $64.30 and $64.90 [9].

Core Viewpoint - StateStreet investment management company's strategists predict that after a significant rise in gold prices in 2025, which may mark the best annual performance since 1979, the growth may slow down in the following year [1] Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - The company expects gold prices to stabilize in the range of $4,000 to $4,500 per ounce in 2026 [1] - Structural trends driving the increase in gold prices this year are unlikely to reverse, providing overall support for gold prices [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - If the correlation between stocks and bonds remains at historically high levels, gold will become increasingly important as a risk diversification tool [1] - In the context of rising global debt, persistent inflation, and increasing long-term yields, gold continues to be an attractive hedge asset [1] - The Federal Reserve's easing policies typically weaken the dollar and increase liquidity, which can positively impact gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks collectively declined ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, indicating market sensitivity to upcoming monetary policy announcements [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Zijin Mining International (02259) fell by 4.07%, trading at 141.5 HKD - Shandong Gold (01787) decreased by 3.68%, trading at 33.52 HKD - China Silver Group (00815) dropped by 2.82%, trading at 0.69 HKD - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) declined by 1.84%, trading at 29.84 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures noted that the long-term logic for rising precious metal prices remains solid, but short-term market pricing may be overly optimistic, with potential risks of a market correction if the Fed's dovish stance is less than expected [1] - Xinda Futures projected that gold prices are likely to continue a high-level oscillation in the short term, with the true direction depending on the upcoming interest rate meeting [1] - Current market expectations for a rate cut in December are well-formed, which may limit upward price movement, while downward support is provided by weak economic data and expectations of a long-term easing path [1]

人民财讯12月8日电，12月7日公布的数据显示，中国人民银行黄金储备11月份环比增加3万盎司(约0.93 吨)，为连续第13个月增持黄金。 世界黄金协会数据显示，10月份各国央行净增持黄金53吨，环比增幅达36%，这一规模创下今年以来单 月净买入的最高纪录。与此同时，国际金价在年内已超50次突破历史峰值，累计回报率超过60%，成为 全球表现最为亮眼的资产之一，目前正朝着1979年以来的最强年度表现迈进。 国际黄金协会认为，2026年金价很可能继续带来"惊喜"。如果全球经济增长放缓，利率进一步下降，黄 金可能会温和上涨。在以全球风险上升为特征的更为严重的经济低迷时期，黄金可能会表现强劲。而美 债收益率下行、地缘政治风险高企以及显著增强的避险需求叠加，将为黄金提供极为强劲的顺风。目 前，国际投资机构普遍预测，2026年黄金目标价在每盎司4500美元至5000美元一线。 ...

Investment Rating - The report has an investment rating of "Positive" and has been upgraded [13] Core Insights - The report provides a unique perspective on the gold mining supply history over the past century, analyzing it through four dimensions: quantity, efficiency, capital, and geological difficulty. It outlines a historical transition from "quantity dividends" to "technical dividends" and "capital dividends," ultimately leading to "geological constraints." The current supply system is shifting from "external drivers" to "internal constraints," fundamentally reshaping the long-term support logic for gold prices [3][9][11]. Summary by Sections Historical Supply Waves - The gold supply has undergone four distinct phases: 1. Quantity Dividend Period (1900-1970): Characterized by significant new discoveries, with over 300 new gold mines discovered every decade, leading to a production increase from 500 tons to 1200 tons [10][34]. 2. Efficiency Dividend Period (1970-2000): Technological advancements allowed for increased production despite declining ore grades, with annual production rising from 1200 tons to 1900 tons [10][38]. 3. Capital Dividend Period (2000-2012): Capital investments surged, with global mining capital expenditures rising from $11.3 billion to nearly $80 billion, boosting production from 2500 tons to 2900 tons [10][48]. 4. Geological Constraint Period (2012-Present): Geological conditions have become the primary constraint, with exploration depths increasing and average grades declining, leading to a systematic upward shift in the supply curve [10][54]. Future Supply Outlook - The global gold supply is expected to experience a fundamental shift, with a slight increase to 3694 tons in 2025 due to new projects in North America and Africa. However, from 2026 to 2028, a trend of supply contraction is anticipated, with annual growth rates projected to remain between -5% and 0%, leading to a total production drop to approximately 3500 tons by 2028 [11][77]. Supply Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the supply dynamics are transitioning from an expansion phase to a contraction phase, with geological constraints becoming the dominant factor. The average exploration depth has increased significantly, and the average grade has dropped to 0.35 g/t, leading to rising costs and declining production capacity [20][60]. Price Support Mechanism - The structural contraction in supply is expected to provide strong support for gold prices, as the historical mechanisms that led to significant price pullbacks due to supply surges are no longer effective. The report suggests that the rigid constraints on supply will fundamentally support gold prices moving forward [11][77].

Group 1 - The domestic gold prices in retail stores remain stable, with the highest price at 1328 CNY per gram and the lowest at 1232 CNY per gram [1][3] - Major brands such as Lao Miao, Liufeng, and Chow Tai Fook have not changed their gold prices, maintaining stability [1][3] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices in stores is consistent at 96 CNY per gram [1] Group 2 - Platinum prices have decreased, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry now priced at 662 CNY per gram, down by 9 CNY [4] - The gold recycling prices have seen a slight increase of 2.7 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among different brands [4] - The current gold recycling prices for various brands range from 907.90 CNY to 942.60 CNY per gram [4] Group 3 - International gold prices showed fluctuations, with a recent low of 4173.79 USD per ounce and a high of 4241.17 USD per ounce, closing at 4206.63 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.09% increase [6] - As of the latest update, the spot gold price is reported at 4224.98 USD per ounce, indicating a 0.44% increase [6] - Analysts note that rising U.S. Treasury yields are limiting gold's upward potential, while fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index provide some support for gold prices [6]

上交易日周四(12月4日)：国际黄金又触底回升收线，使近日走势保持震荡波动，同时也暗示后市仍有 再度走强的预期。下方关注10日及中轨线等均线支撑，仍是看涨入场的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4203.37美元/盎司，先行走低，于午间时段录得日内低点4175.18美元，之 后触底震荡回升，延续至美盘后半段微幅刷新亚盘高点录得日高点4219.33美元，最终有所回撤，收于 4208.64美元，日振幅44.15美元，收涨5.27美元，涨幅0.125%。 影响上，虽然日内延续周三回撤压力，以及近期的观望情绪和下周等待公布的重磅数据而维持震荡调 整，并且，美国初请失业金人数降至19.1万人，创三年新低，打压金价走低，但受到降息预期，以及买 盘支撑，再加上市场在等待关键的美国通胀数据，以研判美联储下周的政策前景。而呈现出多空因素拉 锯的格局。 展望今日周五(12月5日)：国际黄金开盘先行偏弱运行，受到昨日美元指数的收涨暂止跌的的压力，但 金价仍维持在中轨上方，美元指数也处于布林带下行通道，以及200日均线阻力下方，前景仍偏弱，故 此，对于金价来说，仍是偏向利好和对于金价的回落也仍是入场看涨机会。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices remain stable with minor fluctuations among different brands, while international gold prices experience volatility due to market factors and geopolitical tensions [1][4][7]. Domestic Gold Prices - Major gold retailers in China show little change in prices compared to the previous day, with the highest price at 1333 CNY per gram from Chow Sang Sang, and the lowest at 1232 CNY per gram from Shanghai China Gold, resulting in a price difference of 101 CNY per gram [1][3]. - Specific prices for various brands include: - Lao Miao Gold: 1327 CNY/gram [3] - Liufu Gold: 1326 CNY/gram [3] - Chow Tai Fook: 1328 CNY/gram [3] - Zhou Lifu: 1289 CNY/gram [1][3]. Platinum Prices - Platinum prices are declining, with Chow Sang Sang reporting a decrease of 6 CNY per gram, now priced at 663 CNY per gram [4]. Gold Recycling Prices - Gold recycling prices remain unchanged across different brands, with notable differences: - Cai Bai Gold: 945.80 CNY/gram [4] - Zhou Shengsheng Gold: 911.10 CNY/gram [4] - Zhou Dafu Gold: 920.40 CNY/gram [4]. International Gold Prices - The international spot gold price experienced significant fluctuations, dropping to a low of 4163.29 USD/ounce before recovering slightly to close at 4205.38 USD/ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.59% [7]. - As of the latest update, the spot gold price is reported at 4206.99 USD/ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.04% [7]. - Market analysts suggest that the recent price adjustments are primarily due to technical profit-taking, with expectations for gold prices to potentially reach 5000 USD/ounce in the new year [7]. - Ongoing geopolitical discussions, particularly between Russia and the U.S., are contributing to market volatility and uncertainty regarding future gold price movements [7].