Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of a multi-layered consumer finance service system in China, which includes banks, consumer finance companies, and auto finance companies, as a crucial support for stable consumer market development [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support for Consumption - Six government departments, including the People's Bank of China, have jointly issued guidelines to enhance and expand consumption through 19 key measures, focusing on increasing consumer capacity and optimizing the consumption environment [1][2]. - The guidelines aim to strengthen financial services from both supply and demand sides, addressing diverse financing needs and promoting high-quality consumption supply [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Context and Challenges - The current economic environment is complex, with weak domestic demand and challenges in consumer willingness and ability to spend, necessitating effective financial strategies to stimulate consumption [3][5]. - The shift in consumer expectations from mere availability to quality highlights the need for improved supply of high-quality products and services [4]. Group 3: Financial Innovation and Product Development - Financial institutions are encouraged to innovate credit products and increase support for eligible consumption sectors, thereby lowering barriers for consumers and enhancing their willingness to spend [3][5]. - The guidelines advocate for targeted financial support in various sectors, including retail, hospitality, and recycling, to create a balanced approach between short-term stimulus and long-term supply improvements [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical ceasefire [2][4] - Silver: Continue to soar [2][4] - Copper: Declining inventory supports prices [2][10] - Aluminum: Weak operation [2][13] - Alumina: Bottom - range oscillation [2][13] - Aluminum alloy: Deeper into the off - season [2][13] - Zinc: Narrow - range adjustment [2][16] - Lead: Strong in the medium term [2][18] - Tin: Tight current situation, weak future expectations [2][21] - Nickel: Loosening expectations at the distal nickel ore end, smelting end restricts upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand are marginally weak, steel prices oscillate at low levels [2][26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2508, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2508 decreased by 1.21%, 1.19%, and 1.36% respectively. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2508, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2508 decreased by 0.36%, 0.24%, and 0.52% respectively. In terms of trading volume and positions, there were corresponding changes. ETF positions and inventory also showed different trends [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing on the first day, Trump's call for interest rate cuts, Israel's cease - fire in military operations against Iran, the EU's preparation for tariff counter - measures against the US, and China's six - department financial promotion of consumption policies [5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is - 1, silver trend intensity is - 1 [8]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 0.45%, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.22%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.31%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing, the cease - fire between Israel and Iran leading to a rise in US stocks, a new copper smelter in India starting processing, a Japanese company cutting copper production, China's decline in copper ore imports, and Mexico's decision not to issue new mining concessions [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [12]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, Shanghai Alumina main contract, and Aluminum Alloy main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [13]. - **Comprehensive News**: The approaching deadline for the US tariff suspension, a surge in Asian exports to the US, and expected changes in the US trade deficit [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 0, aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [15]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.64%, and the closing price of the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 1.40%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [16]. - **News**: Powell's congressional hearing [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 0.24%, and the closing price of the LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.60%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [18]. - **News**: Powell's congressional hearing [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 1 [19]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 0.73%, and the closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.34%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing, Trump's call for interest rate cuts, Israel's cease - fire in military operations against Iran, the EU's preparation for tariff counter - measures against the US, and China's six - department financial promotion of consumption policies [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and the Stainless Steel main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads and premiums in the industrial chain [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's potential suspension of nickel exports to the US, a nickel project in Indonesia entering trial production, a nickel smelter resuming production, a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planning maintenance, the removal of the raw ore export ban in the Philippines, and environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park [26][27][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Financial Support for Consumption**: On June 24, six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", setting up a 500 billion yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, and taking various measures to promote consumption [7][8] - **Crude Oil**: After a sharp decline, it is not advisable to chase short positions. There may still be a chance for a rebound in the first half of the third quarter. Brent and WTI may break through $80/barrel, and SC may challenge 580 yuan/barrel. However, in the medium - to - long term, the downward pressure on oil prices is large [9][10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts are continuously being removed, and lithium prices have rebounded from a low level. Although the supply - demand pattern has not significantly improved, the outflow of warehouse receipts and high virtual - to - real ratios may lead to increased market volatility [11] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is operating weakly. For the 2510 contract, short positions can be appropriately reduced and profits taken. It is expected to be under pressure in the future [12][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have ceased, and the trend strength is - 1, indicating a relatively weak outlook [20][24] - **Silver**: It continues to rise, and the trend strength is - 1 [20][24] **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Inventory decline supports prices, and the trend strength is 0 [26][28] - **Aluminum**: It is operating weakly, and the trend strength is 0 [29][31] - **Alumina**: It is oscillating at the bottom, and the trend strength is 0 [29][31] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The off - season is deepening, and the trend strength is 0 [29][31] - **Zinc**: It is adjusting in a narrow range, and the trend strength is 0 [32] - **Lead**: It is expected to be strong in the medium term, and the trend strength is 1 [34][35] - **Tin**: There is a tight current situation but weak expectations, and the trend strength is 0 [37][40] - **Nickel**: The expectation of the distal nickel ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity. The trend strength is 0 [42][45] - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weakly marginal, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level. The trend strength is 0 [42][45] **Energy and Chemicals** - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts are accelerating their removal, and the virtual - to - real ratio of near - month contracts is high. The trend strength is 0 [46][49] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being removed again, and attention should be paid to the upward space. The trend strength is 0 [50][52] - **Polysilicon**: The idea is mainly to short on rallies. The trend strength is - 1 [50][52] - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it is oscillating within a range. The trend strength is - 1 [53] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, they are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0 [55][57] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Affected by macro - sentiment, they are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0 [59][61] - **Coke**: After four rounds of price cuts, it is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [62][64] - **Coking Coal**: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [62][64] - **Steam Coal**: Demand is yet to be released, and it is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [66][69] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is operating weakly. For the 2510 contract, short positions can be appropriately reduced and profits taken. The trend strength is not mentioned [12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - On June 24, all four major index futures contracts for the current month rose, with IF up 1.21%, IH up 1.07%, IC up 1.7%, and IM up 2.15%. The total trading volume of index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 20,978 lots, 8,162 lots, 17,867 lots, and 30,475 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 9,891 lots, 2,748 lots, 6,727 lots, and 5,080 lots respectively [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Related Contracts**: The closing price of CSI 300 was 3,904.03, up 1.20%. Among its futures contracts, IF2507 closed at 3,872.2, up 1.21% with a basis of -31.83; IF2508 closed at 3,859, up 1.25% with a basis of -45.03; IF2509 closed at 3,852.4, up 1.38% with a basis of -51.63; IF2512 closed at 3,821.8, up 1.35% with a basis of -82.23 [1] - **SSE 50 and Related Contracts**: The closing price of SSE 50 was 2,715.92, up 1.16%. Among its futures contracts, IH2507 closed at 2,683.6, up 1.07% with a basis of -32.32; IH2508 closed at 2,681.4, up 1.07% with a basis of -34.52; IH2509 closed at 2,682, up 1.02% with a basis of -33.92; IH2512 closed at 2,682, up 1.08% with a basis of -33.92 [1] - **CSI 500 and Related Contracts**: The closing price of CSI 500 was 5,765.84, up 1.62%. Among its futures contracts, IC2507 closed at 5,726.4, up 1.70% with a basis of -39.44; IC2508 closed at 5,678.6, up 1.80% with a basis of -87.24; IC2509 closed at 5,632.6, up 1.86% with a basis of -133.24; IC2512 closed at 5,515.6, up 1.93% with a basis of -250.24 [1] - **CSI 1000 and Related Contracts**: The closing price of CSI 1000 was 6,194.67, up 1.92%. Among its futures contracts, IM2507 closed at 6,134.2, up 2.15% with a basis of -60.47; IM2508 closed at 6,065.6, up 2.27% with a basis of -129.07; IM2509 closed at 5,995, up 2.37% with a basis of -199.67; IM2512 closed at 5,819, up 2.40% with a basis of -375.67 [1] 2. Top 20 Member Position Changes - For IF contracts, the long - position changes of IF2507, IF2509, and IF2512 were 996, 2,597, and 1,847 respectively, and the short - position changes were 2,936, 3,969, and 2,334 respectively. The net long - position change of IF2508 was 5,440, and the net short - position change was 9,239 [5] - For IH contracts, the long - position changes of IH2507 and IH2509 were 958 and - 193 respectively, and the short - position changes were 1,335 and 1,462 respectively. The net long - position change of IH2508 was 765, and the net short - position change was 2,797 [5] - For IC contracts, the long - position changes of IC2507 and IC2512 were 1,710 and 1,374 respectively, and the short - position changes were 3,016 and 1,885 respectively. The net long - position change of IC2509 was 2,459, and the net short - position change was 5,747 [5] - For IM contracts, the long - position change of IM2507 was - 1,293, and the short - position change was - 125. The net long - position change of IM2509 was - 230, and the net short - position change was 1,515 [5] 3. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] - **Important Drivers**: A cease - fire between Israel and Iran took effect, the US stock market soared, the Nasdaq 100 reached a new high, crude oil prices dropped for two days, Powell discussed the prospect of interest rate cuts, and US Treasury bonds generally rose. In China, six departments including the central bank issued a document on promoting consumption through finance, with a service consumption and pension re - loan quota of 500 billion yuan. The three major A - share indexes rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising more than 1% and regaining the 3,400 - point mark, and over 4,700 stocks rising [6]

Group 1 - The retail sector in A-shares saw multiple stocks open higher, with Chongqing Department Store rising over 7% and Guofang Group increasing by more than 5% [1] - Other stocks such as Guoguang Chain and Zhongbai Group also experienced gains [1] - The rise in stock prices is attributed to the announcement of 19 measures by six departments, which clarify the "roadmap" for financial support to boost consumption, emphasizing financial supply for both goods and services [1]

Group 1 - The ceasefire in Israel has led to a rise of over 1% in all three major U.S. stock indices, with the Nasdaq 100 index reaching a historic high [1] - Oil prices have dropped significantly over two days, with intraday declines exceeding 6% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned the possibility of interest rate cuts, indicating that the data from June and July will be crucial [1] Group 2 - Powell's testimony before Congress emphasized a cautious approach, stating that any actions would be conditional and that there are multiple paths forward, including the potential for early rate cuts [1] - Former President Trump has called for a reduction in interest rates by at least two to three percentage points [1] - The U.S. is approaching a deadline for tariff delays, with the EU preparing to implement additional countermeasures against the U.S. [1] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China and six other departments have announced measures to promote consumption, including a 500 billion yuan loan for service consumption and pension, as well as innovative financial products to meet household wealth management needs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and six departments have jointly issued guidelines to support and expand consumption, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity and optimizing the financial environment for consumption [2][4]. Group 1: Key Measures from the Guidelines - The guidelines propose 19 key measures across six areas: enhancing consumer capacity, expanding financial supply for consumption, releasing consumer potential, improving consumption supply efficiency, optimizing the consumption environment, and providing policy support [2]. - Specific measures include increasing support for small and micro enterprises, simplifying loan application processes, and promoting financial products that meet household wealth management needs [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Support for Consumption - The guidelines emphasize the importance of credit support as a primary channel, encouraging innovation in credit products and increasing loan support for eligible consumption sectors [6]. - A special re-loan facility of 500 billion yuan is established to support service consumption and elderly care, allowing financial institutions to apply for re-loans based on the principal of loans issued in key consumption areas [6][7]. Group 3: Development of New Consumption Models - The guidelines advocate for the development of new consumption models, including digital, green, and health consumption, and encourage financial institutions to create products tailored to these new consumption trends [9]. - Financial support will also be directed towards sectors such as wholesale retail, accommodation, and cultural tourism to stimulate service consumption [9][10]. Group 4: Regional Implementation - Guangdong province has actively implemented these guidelines by launching its own action plan to support consumption and stimulate domestic demand, highlighting the province's role as a key economic player [10][11]. - The launch of the "Yue Rong Yue Jing Cai" weekly publication aims to enhance consumer awareness of financial services and investment opportunities in the region [11].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and six other departments have jointly issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, aiming to stimulate and expand consumer demand through various financial measures [1][2]. Financial Support Measures - The guidelines propose 19 key measures across six areas to strengthen financial services for consumption, including enhancing consumer capacity, expanding financial supply, and optimizing the consumption environment [1][2]. - A focus on improving the professional service capabilities of financial institutions is emphasized, with five main areas of effort: credit support, structural monetary policy tools, bond market financing, equity financing, and diversified consumer financing channels [1][2]. Loan and Financing Initiatives - The guidelines include a 500 billion yuan re-lending facility for service consumption and elderly care, allowing financial institutions to apply for re-lending based on 100% of the loan principal [2]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide loans to key service sectors such as retail, hospitality, and education, enhancing the quality of service consumption [2][3]. Diversified Financing Channels - The guidelines stress the importance of multi-channel financing, including bond issuance for qualified enterprises in cultural, tourism, and education sectors, and support for equity financing for quality enterprises in the consumption industry [3][4]. - The promotion of asset securitization for retail loans, including auto loans and credit cards, is aimed at increasing the supply of consumer credit [3][4]. Enhancing Consumer Capacity - The guidelines propose measures to solidify the macroeconomic foundation, support employment and income growth, and optimize the social security system to enhance consumer confidence and willingness [5][6]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop pension products tailored to individual needs, promoting wealth accumulation and stable growth [5][6]. Infrastructure and Supply Chain Improvements - The guidelines highlight the need to improve consumption infrastructure and supply chain efficiency, particularly in logistics and distribution, to facilitate market expansion [6][7]. - Financial products and financing models are to be innovated to meet the funding needs of infrastructure projects related to consumption [6][7]. Coordination and Implementation - Local financial management departments are urged to coordinate with relevant government sectors to effectively implement the consumption support measures [7]. - Financial institutions are expected to enhance internal resource coordination and develop specific implementation details for supporting consumption [7].

Core Insights - The annual "618" e-commerce promotion is experiencing significant changes this year, with keywords such as discounts, national subsidies, consumption vouchers, and interest-free installments becoming prominent [1][2] Financial Institutions' Participation - Various financial institutions, including e-commerce lending platforms, banks, and consumer finance companies, are actively engaging in promotional activities during the "618" event, utilizing methods like payment discounts, interest-free installments, double points, and cash back [2][3] - E-commerce platforms' installment financial products are driving consumption, with examples including Ant Group's interest-free installment plans on Taobao and Tmall, and JD's nationwide interest-free upgrade activities [2][3] Consumer Finance and Credit Technology Companies - Licensed consumer finance and credit technology companies are also participating in the promotion, focusing on scenario marketing. For instance, Haier Consumer Finance offers zero down payment, zero interest, and zero fees for purchasing home appliances [3] - Research indicates that financial institutions are lowering consumer spending thresholds through installment products, providing tangible benefits rather than mere promotional gimmicks [3] Release of Consumer Vitality - The combination of national subsidies and multiple installment offers has effectively stimulated consumer spending, with data showing a 70% increase in interest-free installment orders on Taobao and Tmall compared to last year [4] - JD's data indicates that the integration of national subsidies and interest-free installments has significantly boosted transaction volumes, with average increases exceeding 2.5 times in regions like Beijing, Guangdong, and Jiangsu [4] - A survey revealed that 85% of consumers prefer using interest-free installments even when they can afford to pay in full, highlighting the effectiveness of this marketing strategy [4]

近日，多家银行围绕电商"6·18"消费节点，提供多重福利精准对接用户需求。比如，针对消费者购买家 电、电子产品等，银行推出随机减免、信用卡积分抵用现金活动，加快释放居民消费潜能。 在低利率、以旧换新、国补满减等利好政策的加持下，金融机构拓宽多元服务场景，加力提振消费扩大 内需。上海金融与法律研究院研究员杨海平认为，对于商业银行而言，拓展服务场景可以实现批量获 客，如果应用得当，可以降低银行的运营成本，并有利于银行扩大品牌影响力。 信用卡是促消费利器，今年电商"6·18"期间，部分银行与电商支付平台联动，用户在手机、家装等品类 参与活动，享受折扣、满减等优惠。江苏银行相关负责人表示，该行大力推广信用卡支付和分期服务， 结合传统节假日、各大消费节点，联合各大电商、实体商户开展信用卡支付、分期优惠营销活动，让消 费者在享受便利支付的同时，轻松买、舒心用。 消费金融行业发挥银行"补位"的作用，积极下沉服务，满足新市民消费升级需求。招联金融、兴业消费 金融等持牌消费金融机构创新消费信贷，抓住电商"6·18"机遇，围绕新市民消费场景提供信贷服务。兴 业消费金融相关负责人表示，该公司把活力贷、随兴享等消费信贷嵌入更加具象的 ...