Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates for the third consecutive time amid internal disagreements, with officials likely to signal a pause afterward [2][13] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the market has priced in a 25 basis point rate cut [2][13] - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, believes there is significant room for further rate cuts [2][13] - President Trump stated that his support for immediate large rate cuts will be a "litmus test" for selecting the new Fed Chair and mentioned potential adjustments to tariff policies to help lower some commodity prices [2][13] Futures Market and Trading Volume - On December 9, 2025, the main gold contract opened at 958.04 CNY/gram and closed at 951.54 CNY/gram, a change of -0.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 41,087 contracts [3][14] - The main silver contract opened at 13,726.00 CNY/kilogram and closed at 13,607.00 CNY/kilogram, a change of -0.72%, with a trading volume of 1,309,030 contracts [3][14] Bond Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 9, 2025, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was 4.184%, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a 10-year and 2-year yield spread of 0.573%, a decrease of 4.4 basis points [4][15] Gold and Silver Holdings and Trading Volume Changes - On December 9, 2025, the Au2602 contract saw a decrease of 1,520 long positions and a decrease of 933 short positions, with total trading volume for gold contracts at 291,806, down 21.77% from the previous day [5][16] - In silver, the Ag2602 contract saw a decrease of 6,943 long positions and 7,051 short positions, with total trading volume for silver contracts at 2,048,908, down 33.98% from the previous day [5][16] ETF Holdings Tracking - As of the last trading day, gold ETF holdings were 1,049.11 tons, unchanged from the previous day, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 36 tons to 15,889 tons [6][18] Market Strategy - For gold, a cautiously bullish outlook is suggested, with expectations of a fluctuating price range between 940 CNY/gram and 980 CNY/gram due to market pricing in potential unexpected easing [9][21] - For silver, a neutral outlook is indicated, with prices expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern, but caution is advised regarding potential price declines following new highs due to macroeconomic easing [10][22]

Market Analysis - Trump plans to announce the next Fed Chair nominee in early 2026, and Nick Timiraos suggests Hassett is the "pre - selected" candidate [1] - Trump implies that the US military will soon launch land - based attacks on drug - trafficking groups in Venezuela, raising concerns about a potential military conflict [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On December 2, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 964.82 yuan/gram, closed at 958.42 yuan/gram, down 0.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closing price was 953.82 yuan/gram, down 0.48% from the afternoon closing price [2] - On December 2, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 13,303.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 13,423.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.09% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 2,464,589 lots, and the open interest was 459,321 lots. The night - session closing price was 13,640 yuan/kilogram, up 1.62% from the afternoon closing price [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 2, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.088%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.58%, up 1.81 BP from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On December 2, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, long positions increased by 297 lots, and short positions decreased by 858 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 386,313 lots, down 8.54% from the previous trading day [4] - In the Ag2602 contract, long positions decreased by 15,909 lots, and short positions decreased by 11,096 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts was 3,427,760 lots, down 5.29% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,050.01 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,802 tons, an increase of 191 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 2, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 6.32 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1,537.54 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of SHFE gold and silver was about 71.40, down 1.58% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 74.00, down 0.82% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On December 2, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 45,456 kilograms, down 25.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 894,348 kilograms, down 44.07% from the previous trading day [7] - The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Market risk sentiment is rising, and the Fed Chair nominee determination may strengthen the safe - haven sentiment. The Au2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 930 yuan/gram and 980 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Neutral. Tight spot supply and macro - easing expectations make silver slightly stronger than gold. The Ag2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,300 yuan/kilogram and 13,900 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold - silver ratio at low levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Buy the Gold-Silver Ratio on Dips [8] - Options: Hold Off [9] Core Viewpoints - The main trading theme in the market is clear. The weakening indicators of the US economic performance and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts are expected to keep the gold price in a range-bound and slightly upward trend in the near term. The Au2602 contract is expected to trade between 930 yuan/gram and 980 yuan/gram. [8] - The current tightness in the silver spot market and the ongoing macroeconomic tailwinds have pushed the silver price to new highs. However, the high volatility of silver prices requires caution against the risk of sentiment reversal. The Ag2602 contract is expected to trade between 13,300 yuan/kilogram and 14,300 yuan/kilogram. [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In November, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped 0.5 points to 48.2, staying below the 50 boom-bust line for nine consecutive months and recording the largest contraction in four months. The new orders index contracted at the fastest pace since July, and the backlog of orders saw the largest decline in seven months. [1] - US Commerce Secretary Lutnick announced that the US will reduce the tariff on South Korean cars to 15% starting from November 1 and cancel the tariff on South Korean aircraft parts to align the reciprocal tariffs with those imposed on Japan and the EU. [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On December 1, 2025, the Shanghai Gold (SHFE) main contract opened at 951.92 yuan/gram and closed at 963.28 yuan/gram, up 0.98% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 964.82 yuan/gram and closed at 964.72 yuan/gram, up 0.15% from the afternoon close. [2] - On December 1, 2025, the Shanghai Silver (SHFE) main contract opened at 12,720.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 13,278.00 yuan/kilogram, up 4.33% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,703,384 lots, and the open interest was 473,217 lots. In the night session, it opened at 13,303 yuan/kilogram and closed at 13,766 yuan/kilogram, up 3.68% from the afternoon close. [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 1, 2025, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note closed at 4.087%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.561%, down 0.21 basis points from the previous trading day. [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On December 1, 2025, on the Au2602 contract, the long positions increased by 3,516 lots, and the short positions increased by 2,041 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 422,401 lots, down 32.04% from the previous trading day. [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions increased by 1,754 lots, and the short positions increased by 5,304 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contracts on the previous trading day was 3,619,305 lots, down 11.08% from the previous trading day. [4] Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking - The holdings of the gold ETF remained unchanged at 1,045.43 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the silver ETF increased by 29 tons to 15,611 tons from the previous trading day. [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On December 1, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -13.78 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,715.57 yuan/kilogram. [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 72.55, down 0.88% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 77.79, down 1.77% from the previous trading day. [6] Fundamental Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 60,628 kilograms, down 34.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,598,962 kilograms, up 44.53% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 11,872 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 30 kilograms. [7]

Report Information - Report Date: November 20, 2025 - Report Name: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Institution: Huatai Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On Hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes revealed significant internal differences regarding the December rate cut, which may create short-term negative sentiment for both gold and silver prices. As a result, both metals are expected to trade in a range-bound pattern. The Au2512 contract for gold is projected to fluctuate between 910 yuan/gram and 950 yuan/gram, while the Ag2602 contract for silver is expected to move between 11,700 yuan/kilogram and 12,300 yuan/kilogram [8]. Market Analysis Fed Meeting Minutes and Employment Data - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed severe differences among policymakers during the rate cut decision last month, and the pro-rate cut camp did not have an absolute numerical advantage. There was almost unanimous agreement to halt the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance sheet reduction. Some members were concerned about the risk of a disorderly stock market decline. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report and will incorporate the non-farm payroll data into the November report, which is scheduled for December 16 [1]. Futures Market - On November 19, 2025, the Shanghai Gold (Au) main contract opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 937.00 yuan/gram, a 2.01% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 941.98 yuan/gram and closed at 935.42 yuan/gram, a 0.17% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver (Ag) main contract opened at 11,760.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 12,148.00 yuan/kilogram, a 3.84% change from the previous day's close. The trading volume was 1,360,286 lots, and the open interest was 340,206 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 7,633 yuan/kilogram and closed at 7,644 yuan/kilogram, a 0.27% decline from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On November 19, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.12%, a -0.01% change from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.54%, a 0.01% change from the previous day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 19, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 4,586 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,549 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts the previous day was 486,709 lots, a 9.18% change from the previous day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 13,646 lots, and short positions increased by 11,943 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts the previous day was 1,943,912 lots, a 10.55% change from the previous day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,041.43 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15,218 tons [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage - On November 19, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -11.67 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,350.29 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 77.13, a -1.76% change from the previous day, while the ratio in the overseas market was 80.34, a 0.46% change from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - On November 19, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 62,688 kilograms, a 4.93% change from the previous day. The trading volume of silver was 785,682 kilograms, a 26.08% change from the previous day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 45,840 kilograms [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - After the Sino-US summit in Busan, market risk sentiment may subside, reducing the short - term safe - haven demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a slightly stronger oscillation pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 900 yuan/gram and 950 yuan/gram. Silver has a similar macro - logical relationship with gold. Due to the recovery of risk sentiment, silver prices are slightly stronger than gold, and the Ag2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 11200 yuan/kilogram and 11700 yuan/kilogram [8][9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - After the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump, the two economic and trade teams reached a consensus on important economic and trade issues. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be suspended for another year. The US will also suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls and the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant counter - measures accordingly. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned the second - round interview of the Federal Reserve Chairman and his view on the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target level. Although the euro - zone economy shows certain resilience, geopolitical tensions and US tariff uncertainties still pose risks [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On October 30, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 919.70 yuan/gram and closed at 912.16 yuan/gram, a change of 0.14% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 910.00 yuan/gram and closed at 920.40 yuan/gram, a 0.90% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 11427.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11253.00 yuan/kilogram, a - 0.75% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 820874 lots, and the open interest was 283230 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11245 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11448 yuan/kilogram, a 1.73% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.097%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.49%, a change of - 2BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 902 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions increased by 708 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 412100 lots, a 13.45% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 8579 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8236 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 820874 lots, a 9.76% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1036.05 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15210 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 30, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 11.46 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was - 753.64 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 81.06, a 0.90% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.53, a - 0.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On October 30, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57302 kilograms, a 9.92% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1294530 kilograms, a 113.81% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 112200 kilograms [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite differences in the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, the overall monetary policy tone strengthens the market's expectation of loose trading. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will be mainly fluctuating and strengthening in the near future, and the silver price will also maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - There are differences within the Fed on the path of interest rate cuts. Governor Waller advocates a cautious pace of 25 basis points per cut, while Milan calls for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut. Trump said he had a phone call with Russian President Putin and would meet with him in Budapest to discuss ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On October 16, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 958.00 yuan/gram and closed at 966.42 yuan/gram, a change of 0.63% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 981.90 yuan/gram, up 1.60% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,938.00 yuan/kg and closed at 12,017.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.43% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,204,572 lots, and the open interest was 468,355 lots. The night session closed at 12,208 yuan/kg, up 1.59% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 16, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.973%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.553%, a decrease of 0.21 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, the long position decreased by 493 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position decreased by 288 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 611,400 lots, a change of 8.99% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position increased by 2 lots, and the short position decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 3,239,346 lots, a change of 8.63% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 1,022.60 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,423 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On October 16, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -7.79 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,446.70 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 80.42, a change of 0.21% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 79.70, a change of -3.10% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On October 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 87,610 kg, a change of 58.78% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,365,382 kg, a change of -19.66% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 15,260 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,290 kg [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market continues to show strong performance. The Fed official's dovish signal on interest rate cuts and the global risk asset pullback due to tariff issues have strengthened the safe-haven property of gold. Silver also benefits from the same macro - factors and spot shortages [1][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year and believes that monetary policy should ignore the impact of tariffs on consumer price increases. Economists have raised the US economic growth forecast for this year and next, but expect weak employment growth. The expected inflation - adjusted US GDP growth this year is 1.8%, up from 1.3% in June [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On October 13, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 904.88 yuan/gram, closed at 927.56 yuan/gram, a 2.88% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 936.72 yuan/gram, up 0.99% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,189.00 yuan/kg, closed at 11,531.00 yuan/kg, a 4.05% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,879,157 lots, and the open interest was 495,579 lots. The night - session closed at 11,710 yuan/kg, up 1.55% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 13, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.057%, up 0.38 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.531%, up 0.18 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by 5 lots, and the short position changed by 254 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 618,953 lots, a 100.67% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots, and the short position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2,823,544 lots, a 161.01% change from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,017.16 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,754 tons, an increase of 310 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On October 13, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 23.21 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1,081.43 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 80.44, a - 0.62% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 78.76, a - 3.10% change from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On October 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 63,730 kg, a 38.48% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,573,640 kg, a 20.02% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 12,492 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 144,840 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: The Au2512 contract may oscillate between 925 yuan/gram and 955 yuan/gram. - Silver: The Ag2512 contract may oscillate between 11,500 yuan/kg and 11,800 yuan/kg [8].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials support two more interest rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, and believe that tariffs will not lead to sustained inflation [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year has been revised up to 1.8% from the previous 1.3% [1] - Employment growth is still expected to remain weak [1] Market Movements - On October 13, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures opened at 904.88 CNY/g and closed at 927.56 CNY/g, a change of 2.88% [1] - The Shanghai silver futures opened at 11,189.00 CNY/kg and closed at 11,531.00 CNY/kg, a change of 4.05% [1] - The trading volume for gold contracts was 618,953, an increase of 100.67% [1] - The trading volume for silver contracts was 2,823,544, an increase of 161.01% [1] Bond Market - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.057%, an increase of 0.38 basis points [1] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.531%, an increase of 0.18 basis points [1] Precious Metals ETF - As of October 13, 2025, gold ETF holdings remained at 1,017.16 tons, while silver ETF holdings increased by 310 tons to 15,754 tons [1] Trading Strategy - The strategy for gold is cautiously bullish, with the Au2512 contract expected to fluctuate between 925 CNY/g and 955 CNY/g [1] - The strategy for silver is also cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract expected to fluctuate between 11,500 CNY/kg and 11,800 CNY/kg [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core View of the Report - After gold prices hit a record high, profit-taking sentiment may suppress prices in the short term, but the main logic of safe-haven premium and Fed easing remains unchanged, and future prices are expected to rise further; recent gold prices are likely to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 890 yuan/gram - 915 yuan/gram [8] - Silver is currently showing a similar price pattern as gold, with the main logic unchanged; combined with the expected strengthening of industrial demand in the easing cycle, the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Short-term silver prices are also expected to remain volatile, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10,950 yuan/kilogram - 11,550 yuan/kilogram [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025 (local time), the bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to obtain enough votes in the Senate; President Trump plans to cut some federal programs favored by Democrats [1] - New York Fed President Williams supports further interest rate cuts this year to address potential sharp slowdown risks in the labor market; he believes the US economy is not in recession, inflation risks have eased but still need attention, and monetary policy remains "moderately tight" [1] - US Treasury Secretary has completed the last round of interviews for the next Fed Chair candidate, and Trump will make a final decision from four candidates [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On October 9, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 909.96 yuan/gram and closed at 914.32 yuan/gram, a change of 4.57% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 902.28 yuan/gram, down 1.31% from the afternoon close [2] - On October 9, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,200 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,169 yuan/kilogram, a change of 2.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 605,570 lots, and the open interest was 477,441 lots. The night session closed at 11,078 yuan/kilogram, down 0.81% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 9, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.137%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.544%, a change of -0.42 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract on October 9, 2025, long positions decreased by 1,783 lots and short positions decreased by 1,463 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 285,521 lots, a change of -32.03% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,005,687 lots, a change of -39.90% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 1,014.58 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,416 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On October 9, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -17.05 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,078.81 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was approximately 81.86, a change of 1.10% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 82.33, a change of 0.66% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 51,446 kilograms, a change of -21.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 592,680 kilograms, a change of 123.93% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,886 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 88,590 kilograms [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [3] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [3] - Options: On hold [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the week of September 26, 2025, precious metal prices continued their strong performance, with silver prices breaking through $46 per ounce, reaching a 14 - year high. The Fed's future interest - rate cut path remains uncertain, but the market is more inclined to bet on consecutive rate cuts. Meanwhile, the resurgence of US tariffs has increased risk - aversion sentiment, boosting precious metal prices [1]. - Based on the current situation, gold may continue a relatively strong volatile trend, and silver shows strong performance based on rate - cut expectations. There is a need to repair the gold - silver ratio, but attention should be paid to position control and strict stop - loss execution [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - aspect - In the week of September 26, 2025, precious metal prices continued to be strong. Fed Chair Powell emphasized the two - way nature of policy risks. US Treasury Secretary Besent believes that interest rates are still too high and need to be cut by at least 100 - 150 basis points. Many Fed officials have a dovish stance. The market is more inclined to bet on consecutive rate cuts, with an 87.7% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October according to Fedwatch. US President Trump plans to impose high tariffs on various imported goods starting from October 1 [1]. Fundamental - aspect - In the week of September 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold warehouse receipts changed by 8397 kilograms to 65826 kilograms, and silver warehouse receipts changed by - 1177 kilograms to 1158266 kilograms. Comex gold inventory changed by 482874.92 ounces to 39946410.45 ounces, and Comex silver inventory changed by 6301249.93 ounces to 530344533.33 ounces. Gold SPDR ETF holdings increased by 11.16 tons to 1005.72 tons, and silver SLV ETF holdings increased by 156.86 tons to 15362 tons. As of September 23, 2025, gold speculative net - long positions increased by 0.13% to 266749 contracts, and silver net - long positions increased by 1.43% to 52276 contracts. The CSI 300 index rose 1.07% compared to the previous week, the electronic components sector index related to precious metals fell 1.34%, and the photovoltaic sector rose 0.47%. The photovoltaic price index reached 15.73 as of September 22, 2025, up 0.53 from the previous period, and the photovoltaic manager index was 119.66 as of September 15, down 5.43 month - on - month [2]. Strategy - aspect - Gold: The Fed's rate - cut path is unclear, but dovish signals from many officials and the resurgence of US tariffs may lead to a relatively strong volatile trend in gold prices, with the price range between 855 yuan/gram - 875 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver: Silver prices are strong based on rate - cut expectations, and there is a need to repair the gold - silver ratio. One can continue to buy on dips for hedging, but pay more attention to position control and strict stop - loss execution [3]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [3]. - Options: On hold [3]