Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [10] Core View of the Report - The CPI data has shown marginal warming, but the weak employment data has left the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September unchanged. It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the silver price is also expected to maintain a similar pattern. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow, and it is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The annual rate of the US CPI in August was 2.9%, the largest increase in 7 months; the monthly rate was 0.4%, the highest since January, higher than the expected 0.3%. The core CPI annual rate was 3.1%, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 6 was 263,000, the highest since the week of October 23, 2021, with a market expectation of 235,000. The CME Fedwatch shows that the expectation of a rate cut has not wavered, with a 93.9% probability of a 25BP rate cut and a 6.1% probability of a 50BP rate cut at the September FOMC meeting [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On September 11, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 833.38 yuan/gram and closed at 830.78 yuan/gram, a change of -0.32% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on the day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session of the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 829.52 yuan/gram and closed at 829.26 yuan/gram, a -0.18% change from the previous afternoon's close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,803.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,798.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on the day was 301,985 lots, and the open interest was 203,343 lots. The night session of the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,777 yuan/kg and closed at 9,886 yuan/kg, a +0.90% change from the previous afternoon's close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 11, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.024%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.50%, a change of -0.41BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Long and Short Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On September 11, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 88 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 39 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 308,441 lots, a change of -41.25% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 660,300 lots, a change of -38.07% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - In terms of precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 977.95 tons the previous day, a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,069.6 tons, a decrease of 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 11, 2025, in terms of domestic premiums, the domestic gold premium was -9.05 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -865.00 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 84.79, a change of -0.34% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.48, a change of -0.11% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On the previous trading day (September 11, 2025), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 36,270 kg, a change of -26.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 304,080 kg, a change of -46.33% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 18,442 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 540 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Au2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 815 yuan/gram and 845 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Ag2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 9,600 yuan/kg and 10,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [10]

宽松预期持续巩固 贵金属价格高位震荡 贵金属日报 | 2025-09-10 2025-09-09，美国10年期国债利率收于4.088%，较前一交易日-0.19BP，10年期与2年期利差为0.525%，较前一交易 日变化-0.4BP。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-09-09，Au2508合约上，多头较前一日变化314手，空头则是变化257手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为470523 手，较前一交易日变化6.97%。在沪银方面，在Ag2508合约上，多头变动2手，空头变动-2手。白银合约上个交易 日总成交量1067357手，较前一交易日变化-24.09%。 贵金属ETF持仓跟踪： 市场分析 贵金属ETF方面，昨日黄金ETF持仓为979.68吨，较前一交易日下降-2.29吨。白银ETF持仓为15069.6吨，较前一交 易日-67.78吨。 关税方面，美国和韩国就一项3500亿美元投资基金的细节问题陷入僵局，该基金是两国更广泛贸易协议的一部分。 韩方一直向美方强调，不能接受与日本5500亿美元投资承诺相同的条款；日本经济再生担当相赤泽亮正表示，美 国特朗普政府对日下调汽车关税以及减轻"对等关税"负担的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Weak employment data in the US has significantly increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, with a 99.4% chance of a rate cut in September according to Fedwatch [1] - The weakening employment data and rising easing expectations are favorable for gold prices, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow due to the rising rate cut expectations and the industrial attributes of silver in a pro-cyclical context [1][8] Market Analysis - In August, the ADP employment in the US increased by only 54,000, far lower than the expected 65,000, and the initial jobless claims last week rose by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June [1] - The ISM services PMI in the US in August was 52, with the new orders index jumping 5.7 points to 56, the largest increase since September last year [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 4, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 817.50 yuan/gram and closed at 812.98 yuan/gram, down 0.23% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was not provided, and the open interest was 129,725 lots [2] - The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,851.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,773.00 yuan/kg, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 788,714 lots, and the open interest was 248,568 lots [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 4, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.159%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day, and the spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 0.571%, down 0.81 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions increased by 246 lots and the short positions increased by 222 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 475,014 lots, up 13.86% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,537,386 lots, up 36.19% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 981.97 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings were 15,230.57 tons, down 50.83 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 4, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -16.54 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -913.19 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 83.19, up 0.25% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.56, up 0.85% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On September 4, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 73,492 kg, up 4.59% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 580,972 kg, up 55.37% from the previous trading day [7] - The delivery volume of gold was 18,670 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 24,270 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2510 contract may oscillate between 800 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2510 contract may oscillate between 9,600 yuan/kg and 10,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8]

Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The expectation of interest rate cuts continues to ferment, and the weak economic data boosts the market to bet on the Fed's monetary policy shift. Gold prices are expected to remain in a volatile and upward pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 800 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver currently shares the positive logic of loose expectations with gold. Along with the expectation of improved industrial demand after interest rate cuts, the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a volatile and upward pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,800 yuan/kilogram and 10,300 yuan/kilogram [8]. Market Analysis - Macro: The US economic Beige Book shows that consumer spending is flat or declining as many households' wages fail to keep up with rising prices. As tariffs are gradually passed through the economy, businesses in some regions have raised prices of goods and services to offset rising costs [1]. - Employment: The number of job openings in the US in July dropped to 7.181 million from a downwardly revised 7.36 million in June, hitting a 10 - month low and far below the expected 7.382 million [1]. - Fed: Fed Governor Waller said the Fed should start cutting interest rates this month and make multiple cuts in the coming months, but he is open to the specific pace of rate cuts, which will depend on future economic data [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 3, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 804.42 yuan/gram and closed at 814.88 yuan/gram, up 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 817.50 yuan/gram and closed at 821.68 yuan/gram, up 0.83% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 3, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,766.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,820.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 627,101 lots, and the open interest was 270,592 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,851 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,918 yuan/kilogram, up 1.00% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 3, 2025, the yield on the 10 - year US Treasury note closed at 4.219%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year yields was 0.602%, down 0.43 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On September 3, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 400 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 403 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 417,207 lots, a change of 30.38% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,128,851 lots, a change of 16.61% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 984.26 tons yesterday, down 6.30 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,366.48 tons, up 56.48 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On September 3, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 21.99 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 885.80 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 82.98, a change of 1.35% from the previous trading day, and the foreign gold - silver ratio was 85.48, a change of 0.65% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On September 3, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 70,268 kilograms, a change of 35.49% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 373,924 kilograms, a change of - 15.92% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 17,146 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 15,030 kilograms [7]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of looser US monetary policy remains the main line for precious metals, providing strong price support. The market is waiting for US economic data to verify the urgency and pace of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical factors, such as the outcome of the US-Russia summit, also need attention. Gold and silver prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [1][8][9] Summary by Directory Strategy Summary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent called for an immediate new round of interest rate cuts, suggesting that US interest rates should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level. There is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut in September. There are 10 or 11 candidates for the Fed Chair. Trump may propose joint development of rare earth resources in Alaska and lift export bans on Russian aircraft parts during the summit. If the meeting goes poorly, the US may increase sanctions or impose secondary tariffs on Russia [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 777.28 yuan/gram and closed at 777.72 yuan/gram, up 0.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The overnight session closed at 777.10 yuan/gram, down 0.08% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,182.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,300.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.23% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 415,237 lots, and the open interest was 365,333 lots. The overnight session closed at 9,318 yuan/kilogram, up 0.19% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 13, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.24%, down 5 basis points from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.57%, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On August 13, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 24 lots, and short positions decreased by 60 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 268,832 lots, up 10.32% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 754 lots, and short positions decreased by 550 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 640,354 lots, up 46.37% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 964.22 tons, up 4.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,099.56 tons, up 40.96 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On August 13, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 9.96 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 641.74 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 83.63, down 1.00% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.82, down 0.13% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On August 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 32,602 kilograms, down 0.56% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 376,786 kilograms, up 24.67% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,014 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,070 kilograms [7] Strategy Recommendations - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 760 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,150 yuan/kilogram and 9,450 yuan/kilogram. Arbitrage strategy: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. Option strategy: Postpone [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Bullish, with the Au2510 contract expected to oscillate between 765 yuan/gram - 785 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2510 contract expected to oscillate between 9100 yuan/kilogram - 9350 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core View - The market's trading focus has shifted back to easing expectations. The cooling inflation and concerns about the US economy have strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, strongly supporting precious metal prices [1][8] - Although the Sino-US tariff risk has been temporarily resolved, the decline in tariff risk premium has limited impact on gold prices [8] - Silver's trading logic is in sync with gold, and with the rising rate cut expectation and the regression of the gold-silver ratio, silver prices are expected to continue rising [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation and Policy Expectations - In July, US CPI was 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3%. After the data release, the market expected a Fed rate cut in September with a probability over 90% [1] - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut rates, and Treasury Secretary suggested a 50-basis-point cut in September [1] 3.2 Tariff Progress - China and the US issued a joint statement. Both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12 [1] 3.3 Futures Market - On August 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.52 yuan/gram and closed at 776.04 yuan/gram, down 0.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots [2] - The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,180 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,187 yuan/kilogram, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 291,143 lots, and the open interest was 349,123 lots [2] 3.4 US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 12, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.29%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.57%, up 0.06% [3] 3.5 Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position decreased by 81 lots, and the short position decreased by 42 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts decreased by 31.67% [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long position decreased by 68 lots, and the short position decreased by 70 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai silver contracts decreased by 26.01% [4] 3.6 ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings increased by 4.58 tons to 964.22 tons, and the silver ETF holdings increased by 40.96 tons to 15,099.56 tons [5] 3.7 Arbitrage and Premiums - On August 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.22 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -542.83 yuan/kilogram [6] - The ratio of the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver futures was about 84.47, down 0.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.72, up 0.86% [6] 3.8 Fundamental Data - On August 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 18.85%, and the trading volume of silver decreased by 4.85% [7] - The gold delivery volume was 8,250 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 24,750 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The main focus of precious metals is on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and rhythm. Multiple Fed officials are open to a shift to loose monetary policy, strongly supporting precious metal prices. If economic growth data resonates with the July US non-farm payrolls data, it may accelerate the Fed's monetary policy shift to a looser stance and further push up gold prices [8]. - The trading logic of silver is generally in sync with that of gold, with future loose expectations on the macro level as the main line, and its pricing weight is higher than the supply-demand fundamentals of silver. With the logic of the gold-silver ratio returning, silver prices are expected to continue the upward trend [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Summary - Macro: Fed officials' statements indicate that the expectation of a shift to loose monetary policy within the Fed is rising, which is expected to support precious metal prices. Geopolitical risk premium has a relatively low weight in precious metal pricing, and the short-term main line lies in the Fed's loose expectations and rhythm [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 6, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.80 yuan/gram and closed at 783.68 yuan/gram, a change of 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 781.96 yuan/gram, down 0.22% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,104.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,182.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 372,060 lots, and the open interest was 373,376 lots. The night session closed at 9,180 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 6, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.22%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.53%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On August 6, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 249 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 336 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 239,517 lots, a change of -0.54% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,516 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,708 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 532,607 lots, a change of 17.04% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 952.79 tons, down 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,112.28 tons, up 67.8 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 6, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -10.74 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -706.17 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 85.35, a change of -1.02% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 90.05, a change of -0.41% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On August 6, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 29,226 kg, a change of -14.53% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 231,594 kg, a change of -14.47% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,764 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 15,690 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 8,950 yuan/kg and 9,450 yuan/kg [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The "Big and Beautiful" bill has passed, the U.S. debt ceiling will still expand, Trump has repeatedly called for replacing the Fed Chairman, and a relatively loose monetary policy is needed to support it, so gold is expected to remain relatively strong [8][9] - The gold-silver ratio is at a high level, and some so-called safe-haven demand may flow to silver, but due to the relatively high volatility of silver itself, more attention should be paid to position control and stop-loss protection when operating, and the silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern [9] Market News and Important Data - Trump's chief trade advisor Peter Navarro criticized Powell for refusing to cut interest rates, saying it could be his third major policy mistake in six years, and if he continues the tight monetary policy route at the July 29 Fed meeting, he will become the worst Fed Chairman in history [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On July 8, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 771.66 yuan/gram, closed at 776.22 yuan/gram, up 0.64% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 187,574 lots and an open interest of 179,131 lots. The night session opened at 774.98 yuan/gram and closed at 769.52 yuan/gram, down 0.65% from the afternoon close [2] - On July 8, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,856 yuan/kilogram, closed at 8,953 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 418,168 lots and an open interest of 338,144 lots. The night session opened at 8,940 yuan/gram and closed at 8,908 yuan/gram, down 0.10% from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 8, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.40%, up 0.05% from the previous trading day, and the 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.52%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On July 8, 2025, on the Au2502 contract, the long position changed by 79 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position changed by 46 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 245,162 lots, down 7.74% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2502 contract, the long position decreased by 231 lots, and the short position decreased by 170 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 715,924 lots, down 5.78% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 946.51 tons, down 1.15 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF position was 14,935.15 tons, up 66.41 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On July 8, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -0.23 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -665.35 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 86.70, down 0.27% from the previous trading day, and the price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 90.59, up 0.58% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On July 8, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 28,986 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 319,210 kilograms, down 41.92% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 13,086 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 21,270 kilograms [7]

Report Summary Market News and Important Data - Trump sent tariff letters to 14 countries on August 1, 2025, imposing 25% tariffs on imported goods from Japan and South Korea, and 25% - 40% tariffs on Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, etc. An additional 10% tariff will be imposed on countries aligning with the anti - US policies of BRICS countries. The suspension period for reciprocal tariffs was extended to August 1 [1]. - White House officials stated that specific country tariffs and industry tariffs will not be stacked. The Fed Chair candidate Wash suggested lowering interest rates, and White House trade advisor Navarro called on the Fed Council to intervene in Powell's stance [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On July 7, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 775.38 yuan/gram, closed at 771.30 yuan/gram, down 0.74% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 190,256 lots, and the open interest was 175,760 lots. In the night session, it opened at 771.66 yuan/gram and closed at 775.68 yuan/gram, up 0.36% from the afternoon close [2]. - On July 7, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,919 yuan/kilogram, closed at 8,872 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 261,611 lots, and the open interest was 229,481 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,856 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,916 yuan/kilogram, down 0.19% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 7, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield closed at 4.35%, with a change of 0.05% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year yields had no available change data [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On July 7, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, the long position changed by 36 lots, and the short position changed by 13 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 265,734 lots, down 10.42% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2502 contract, the long position decreased by 112 lots, and the short position decreased by 387 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract was 676,826 lots, down 20.03% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the gold ETF position was 947.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,868.74 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 13.16 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 613.51 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 86.94, down 0.22% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 90.06, with a change of - 1.64% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On July 7, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 38,836 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 549,594 kilograms, up 32.24% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,392 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 25,800 kilograms [7]. Investment Suggestions - Gold: It is still recommended to buy on dips for hedging operations, considering Trump may face more obstacles after promoting the "big and beautiful" bill, and such a bill requires a relatively loose monetary policy [8]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver prices are slightly stronger than gold due to occasional rebounds in risk sentiment and the gold - silver ratio deviating from the central level for a long time. It is also recommended to buy on dips [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8]. - Options: Put on hold [8]

Market News and Key Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending June 7 was 248,000, higher than the expected 240,000, reaching a new high since the week ending October 5, 2024 [1] - The monthly rate of the US core PPI in May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.30%. Traders fully priced in two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, and the US dollar declined for two consecutive days [1] - US President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell and demanded a 200 - basis - point interest rate cut [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On June 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.00 yuan/gram and closed at 785.16 yuan/gram, up 0.98% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 218,198 lots, and the open interest was 172,351 lots. In the night session, it opened at 786.98 yuan/gram and closed at 786.02 yuan/gram, up 0.65% from the afternoon close [2] - On June 12, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 8,859 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,819 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 662,487 lots, and the open interest was 432,670 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,818 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,787 yuan/kilogram, down 0.53% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 12, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.41%, down 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.46%, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract on June 12, 2025, long positions decreased by 72 lots compared to the previous day, and short positions decreased by 618 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 427,902 lots, up 36.23% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2502 contract, long positions decreased by 5,010 lots, and short positions increased by 1,704 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,085,408 lots, down 20.62% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 937.91 tons on the previous day, up 3.72 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 14,729.08 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 12, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was - 2.53 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was - 523.63 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 89.03, up 1.93% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 92.85, up 1.75% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On June 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 50,430 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 805,092 kilograms, up 64.55% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 15,196 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 40,230 kilograms [7] Investment Recommendations - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with an operating range of 760 - 765 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. It is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, but avoid aggressive chasing. More attention should be paid to position control and strict stop - loss [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: Put on hold [8]