1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - After the Sino-US summit in Busan, market risk sentiment may subside, reducing the short - term safe - haven demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a slightly stronger oscillation pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 900 yuan/gram and 950 yuan/gram. Silver has a similar macro - logical relationship with gold. Due to the recovery of risk sentiment, silver prices are slightly stronger than gold, and the Ag2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 11200 yuan/kilogram and 11700 yuan/kilogram [8][9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - After the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump, the two economic and trade teams reached a consensus on important economic and trade issues. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be suspended for another year. The US will also suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls and the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant counter - measures accordingly. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned the second - round interview of the Federal Reserve Chairman and his view on the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target level. Although the euro - zone economy shows certain resilience, geopolitical tensions and US tariff uncertainties still pose risks [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On October 30, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 919.70 yuan/gram and closed at 912.16 yuan/gram, a change of 0.14% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 910.00 yuan/gram and closed at 920.40 yuan/gram, a 0.90% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 11427.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11253.00 yuan/kilogram, a - 0.75% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 820874 lots, and the open interest was 283230 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11245 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11448 yuan/kilogram, a 1.73% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.097%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.49%, a change of - 2BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 902 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions increased by 708 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 412100 lots, a 13.45% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 8579 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8236 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 820874 lots, a 9.76% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1036.05 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15210 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 30, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 11.46 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was - 753.64 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 81.06, a 0.90% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.53, a - 0.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On October 30, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57302 kilograms, a 9.92% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1294530 kilograms, a 113.81% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 112200 kilograms [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite differences in the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, the overall monetary policy tone strengthens the market's expectation of loose trading. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will be mainly fluctuating and strengthening in the near future, and the silver price will also maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - There are differences within the Fed on the path of interest rate cuts. Governor Waller advocates a cautious pace of 25 basis points per cut, while Milan calls for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut. Trump said he had a phone call with Russian President Putin and would meet with him in Budapest to discuss ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On October 16, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 958.00 yuan/gram and closed at 966.42 yuan/gram, a change of 0.63% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 981.90 yuan/gram, up 1.60% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,938.00 yuan/kg and closed at 12,017.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.43% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,204,572 lots, and the open interest was 468,355 lots. The night session closed at 12,208 yuan/kg, up 1.59% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 16, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.973%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.553%, a decrease of 0.21 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, the long position decreased by 493 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position decreased by 288 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 611,400 lots, a change of 8.99% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position increased by 2 lots, and the short position decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 3,239,346 lots, a change of 8.63% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 1,022.60 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,423 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On October 16, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -7.79 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,446.70 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 80.42, a change of 0.21% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 79.70, a change of -3.10% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On October 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 87,610 kg, a change of 58.78% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,365,382 kg, a change of -19.66% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 15,260 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,290 kg [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market continues to show strong performance. The Fed official's dovish signal on interest rate cuts and the global risk asset pullback due to tariff issues have strengthened the safe-haven property of gold. Silver also benefits from the same macro - factors and spot shortages [1][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year and believes that monetary policy should ignore the impact of tariffs on consumer price increases. Economists have raised the US economic growth forecast for this year and next, but expect weak employment growth. The expected inflation - adjusted US GDP growth this year is 1.8%, up from 1.3% in June [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On October 13, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 904.88 yuan/gram, closed at 927.56 yuan/gram, a 2.88% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 936.72 yuan/gram, up 0.99% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,189.00 yuan/kg, closed at 11,531.00 yuan/kg, a 4.05% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,879,157 lots, and the open interest was 495,579 lots. The night - session closed at 11,710 yuan/kg, up 1.55% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 13, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.057%, up 0.38 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.531%, up 0.18 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by 5 lots, and the short position changed by 254 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 618,953 lots, a 100.67% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots, and the short position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2,823,544 lots, a 161.01% change from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,017.16 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,754 tons, an increase of 310 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On October 13, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 23.21 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1,081.43 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 80.44, a - 0.62% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 78.76, a - 3.10% change from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On October 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 63,730 kg, a 38.48% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,573,640 kg, a 20.02% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 12,492 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 144,840 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: The Au2512 contract may oscillate between 925 yuan/gram and 955 yuan/gram. - Silver: The Ag2512 contract may oscillate between 11,500 yuan/kg and 11,800 yuan/kg [8].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials support two more interest rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, and believe that tariffs will not lead to sustained inflation [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year has been revised up to 1.8% from the previous 1.3% [1] - Employment growth is still expected to remain weak [1] Market Movements - On October 13, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures opened at 904.88 CNY/g and closed at 927.56 CNY/g, a change of 2.88% [1] - The Shanghai silver futures opened at 11,189.00 CNY/kg and closed at 11,531.00 CNY/kg, a change of 4.05% [1] - The trading volume for gold contracts was 618,953, an increase of 100.67% [1] - The trading volume for silver contracts was 2,823,544, an increase of 161.01% [1] Bond Market - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.057%, an increase of 0.38 basis points [1] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.531%, an increase of 0.18 basis points [1] Precious Metals ETF - As of October 13, 2025, gold ETF holdings remained at 1,017.16 tons, while silver ETF holdings increased by 310 tons to 15,754 tons [1] Trading Strategy - The strategy for gold is cautiously bullish, with the Au2512 contract expected to fluctuate between 925 CNY/g and 955 CNY/g [1] - The strategy for silver is also cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract expected to fluctuate between 11,500 CNY/kg and 11,800 CNY/kg [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core View of the Report - After gold prices hit a record high, profit-taking sentiment may suppress prices in the short term, but the main logic of safe-haven premium and Fed easing remains unchanged, and future prices are expected to rise further; recent gold prices are likely to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 890 yuan/gram - 915 yuan/gram [8] - Silver is currently showing a similar price pattern as gold, with the main logic unchanged; combined with the expected strengthening of industrial demand in the easing cycle, the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Short-term silver prices are also expected to remain volatile, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10,950 yuan/kilogram - 11,550 yuan/kilogram [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025 (local time), the bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to obtain enough votes in the Senate; President Trump plans to cut some federal programs favored by Democrats [1] - New York Fed President Williams supports further interest rate cuts this year to address potential sharp slowdown risks in the labor market; he believes the US economy is not in recession, inflation risks have eased but still need attention, and monetary policy remains "moderately tight" [1] - US Treasury Secretary has completed the last round of interviews for the next Fed Chair candidate, and Trump will make a final decision from four candidates [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On October 9, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 909.96 yuan/gram and closed at 914.32 yuan/gram, a change of 4.57% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 902.28 yuan/gram, down 1.31% from the afternoon close [2] - On October 9, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,200 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,169 yuan/kilogram, a change of 2.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 605,570 lots, and the open interest was 477,441 lots. The night session closed at 11,078 yuan/kilogram, down 0.81% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 9, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.137%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.544%, a change of -0.42 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract on October 9, 2025, long positions decreased by 1,783 lots and short positions decreased by 1,463 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 285,521 lots, a change of -32.03% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,005,687 lots, a change of -39.90% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 1,014.58 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,416 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On October 9, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -17.05 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,078.81 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was approximately 81.86, a change of 1.10% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 82.33, a change of 0.66% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 51,446 kilograms, a change of -21.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 592,680 kilograms, a change of 123.93% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,886 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 88,590 kilograms [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [3] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [3] - Options: On hold [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the week of September 26, 2025, precious metal prices continued their strong performance, with silver prices breaking through $46 per ounce, reaching a 14 - year high. The Fed's future interest - rate cut path remains uncertain, but the market is more inclined to bet on consecutive rate cuts. Meanwhile, the resurgence of US tariffs has increased risk - aversion sentiment, boosting precious metal prices [1]. - Based on the current situation, gold may continue a relatively strong volatile trend, and silver shows strong performance based on rate - cut expectations. There is a need to repair the gold - silver ratio, but attention should be paid to position control and strict stop - loss execution [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - aspect - In the week of September 26, 2025, precious metal prices continued to be strong. Fed Chair Powell emphasized the two - way nature of policy risks. US Treasury Secretary Besent believes that interest rates are still too high and need to be cut by at least 100 - 150 basis points. Many Fed officials have a dovish stance. The market is more inclined to bet on consecutive rate cuts, with an 87.7% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October according to Fedwatch. US President Trump plans to impose high tariffs on various imported goods starting from October 1 [1]. Fundamental - aspect - In the week of September 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold warehouse receipts changed by 8397 kilograms to 65826 kilograms, and silver warehouse receipts changed by - 1177 kilograms to 1158266 kilograms. Comex gold inventory changed by 482874.92 ounces to 39946410.45 ounces, and Comex silver inventory changed by 6301249.93 ounces to 530344533.33 ounces. Gold SPDR ETF holdings increased by 11.16 tons to 1005.72 tons, and silver SLV ETF holdings increased by 156.86 tons to 15362 tons. As of September 23, 2025, gold speculative net - long positions increased by 0.13% to 266749 contracts, and silver net - long positions increased by 1.43% to 52276 contracts. The CSI 300 index rose 1.07% compared to the previous week, the electronic components sector index related to precious metals fell 1.34%, and the photovoltaic sector rose 0.47%. The photovoltaic price index reached 15.73 as of September 22, 2025, up 0.53 from the previous period, and the photovoltaic manager index was 119.66 as of September 15, down 5.43 month - on - month [2]. Strategy - aspect - Gold: The Fed's rate - cut path is unclear, but dovish signals from many officials and the resurgence of US tariffs may lead to a relatively strong volatile trend in gold prices, with the price range between 855 yuan/gram - 875 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver: Silver prices are strong based on rate - cut expectations, and there is a need to repair the gold - silver ratio. One can continue to buy on dips for hedging, but pay more attention to position control and strict stop - loss execution [3]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [3]. - Options: On hold [3]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is cautiously bullish, and the same for silver. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels. The option strategy is to hold off [8]. Core View - The market still tends to bet that the Fed will continue the rate - cut process in October, and the logic of dollar asset substitution remains. Therefore, the gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 820 yuan/gram - 850 yuan/gram. For silver, due to the existence of loose macro - expectations and the narrowing expectation of the gold - silver ratio given industrial demand, the silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10100 yuan/kilogram - 10600 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - In terms of interest rates, St. Louis Fed President Mousalem emphasized that the current interest rate level is between "slightly restrictive and neutral", and the room for future rate cuts is limited. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he does not currently support further rate cuts because "inflation has remained too high for a long time". Fed Governor Milan said that unless the situation changes, he will continue to promote rate cuts and is willing to vote against again. Geopolitically, France officially recognized the State of Palestine, and 152 out of 193 UN member states have recognized Palestine, with only the US among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council not recognizing it [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 22, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 831.02 yuan/gram and closed at 846.50 yuan/gram, a 1.92% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 847.5 yuan/gram and closed at 850.98 yuan/gram, a 0.53% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9971.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10317.00 yuan/kilogram, a 3.47% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 789,654 lots, and the open interest was 504,051 lots. In the night session, it opened at 10276 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10348 yuan/kilogram, a 0.30% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 22, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.147%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.546%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On September 22, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 1016 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by - 263 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 362,999 lots, a - 22.77% change from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai silver, in the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,340,506 lots, a - 21.56% change from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - For precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 994.56 tons on the previous day, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,369 tons, an increase of 164 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 22, 2025, in terms of domestic premiums, the domestic gold premium was - 19.58 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1087.95 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 82.05, a - 0.59% change from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.60, a - 1.29% change from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On September 22, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 45,222 kilograms, a - 5.12% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 606,548 kilograms, a - 21.67% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,508 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 15,330 kilograms [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious and bullish rating for both gold and silver, and suggests shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels while pausing on options [8][9] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate cut, gold prices are expected to oscillate, but the financial attribute premium remains, so it's advisable to buy on dips. Silver's financial attribute premium is weakened, but its industrial attribute provides support, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Both are likely to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [8] Market Analysis - US initial jobless claims last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, but continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market. The US government is promoting a $5 billion mineral investment fund [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 18, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 835.34 yuan/gram and closed at 824.10 yuan/gram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,924.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,835.00 yuan/kg, down 0.72% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 646,031 lots, and the open interest was 395,854 lots [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 18, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.101%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.544%, down 0.21 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On September 18, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, long positions changed by 129 lots, and short positions changed by 176 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 485,609 lots, a change of 32.56% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions changed by 2 lots, and short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,305,261 lots, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 975.66 tons, down 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,205.14 tons, up 15.53 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 18, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -8.58 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -823.15 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 83.79, down 0.60% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.92, a change of 2.72% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 49,462 kg, down 13.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 547,182 kg, down 26.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,776 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 10,320 kg [7] Strategy Recommendations - Gold: Cautiously bullish, buy on dips, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 815 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 9,800 yuan/kg and 10,050 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Pause [9]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The US economic data remains weak. The September New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply by 21 points to -8.7, far below the market expectation of 5. New orders and shipment indicators hit their lowest levels since April 2024 [1] - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving TikTok - related problems, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 833.82 yuan/gram, closed at 831.60 yuan/gram, down 0.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 131,159 lots, and the open interest was 104,349 lots. In the night session, it closed at 839.08 yuan/gram, up 0.90% from the afternoon close [2] - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 10,018 yuan/kg, closed at 10,017 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 356,647 lots, and the open interest was 204,407 lots. In the night session, it closed at 10,116 yuan/kg, up 0.99% from the afternoon close [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On September 15, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 4.036%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.503%, down 0.43 BP from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Positions and Volume Changes on SHFE - On September 15, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 607 lots, and the short positions changed by 145 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts decreased by 19.21% from the previous trading day [4] - In the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 1285 lots, and the short positions increased by 352 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts decreased by 43.41% from the previous trading day [4] Group 5: Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 976.8 tons, up 2.00 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,069.6 tons, down 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5] Group 6: Precious Metal Arbitrage - On September 15, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 7.89 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 884.22 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on SHFE was about 83.02, down 0.13% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.24, down 1.25% from the previous trading day [6] Group 7: Fundamental Data - On September 15, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 33,778 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 380,008 kg, down 40.68% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 14,248 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 9,330 kg [7] Group 8: Strategies - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Weak US economic data may prompt the market to bet on a faster Fed rate - cut pace. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 815 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The macro - environment and industrial metal attributes resonate. The silver price is slightly stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow. The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,900 yuan/kg and 10,300 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels - Options: Put on hold [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [10] Core View of the Report - The CPI data has shown marginal warming, but the weak employment data has left the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September unchanged. It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the silver price is also expected to maintain a similar pattern. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow, and it is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The annual rate of the US CPI in August was 2.9%, the largest increase in 7 months; the monthly rate was 0.4%, the highest since January, higher than the expected 0.3%. The core CPI annual rate was 3.1%, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 6 was 263,000, the highest since the week of October 23, 2021, with a market expectation of 235,000. The CME Fedwatch shows that the expectation of a rate cut has not wavered, with a 93.9% probability of a 25BP rate cut and a 6.1% probability of a 50BP rate cut at the September FOMC meeting [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On September 11, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 833.38 yuan/gram and closed at 830.78 yuan/gram, a change of -0.32% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on the day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session of the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 829.52 yuan/gram and closed at 829.26 yuan/gram, a -0.18% change from the previous afternoon's close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,803.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,798.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on the day was 301,985 lots, and the open interest was 203,343 lots. The night session of the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,777 yuan/kg and closed at 9,886 yuan/kg, a +0.90% change from the previous afternoon's close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 11, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.024%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.50%, a change of -0.41BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Long and Short Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On September 11, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 88 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 39 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 308,441 lots, a change of -41.25% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 660,300 lots, a change of -38.07% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - In terms of precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 977.95 tons the previous day, a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,069.6 tons, a decrease of 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 11, 2025, in terms of domestic premiums, the domestic gold premium was -9.05 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -865.00 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 84.79, a change of -0.34% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.48, a change of -0.11% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On the previous trading day (September 11, 2025), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 36,270 kg, a change of -26.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 304,080 kg, a change of -46.33% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 18,442 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 540 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Au2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 815 yuan/gram and 845 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Ag2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 9,600 yuan/kg and 10,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [10]