Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Bullish, with the Au2510 contract expected to oscillate between 765 yuan/gram - 785 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2510 contract expected to oscillate between 9100 yuan/kilogram - 9350 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core View - The market's trading focus has shifted back to easing expectations. The cooling inflation and concerns about the US economy have strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, strongly supporting precious metal prices [1][8] - Although the Sino-US tariff risk has been temporarily resolved, the decline in tariff risk premium has limited impact on gold prices [8] - Silver's trading logic is in sync with gold, and with the rising rate cut expectation and the regression of the gold-silver ratio, silver prices are expected to continue rising [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation and Policy Expectations - In July, US CPI was 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3%. After the data release, the market expected a Fed rate cut in September with a probability over 90% [1] - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut rates, and Treasury Secretary suggested a 50-basis-point cut in September [1] 3.2 Tariff Progress - China and the US issued a joint statement. Both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12 [1] 3.3 Futures Market - On August 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.52 yuan/gram and closed at 776.04 yuan/gram, down 0.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots [2] - The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,180 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,187 yuan/kilogram, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 291,143 lots, and the open interest was 349,123 lots [2] 3.4 US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 12, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.29%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.57%, up 0.06% [3] 3.5 Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position decreased by 81 lots, and the short position decreased by 42 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts decreased by 31.67% [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long position decreased by 68 lots, and the short position decreased by 70 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai silver contracts decreased by 26.01% [4] 3.6 ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings increased by 4.58 tons to 964.22 tons, and the silver ETF holdings increased by 40.96 tons to 15,099.56 tons [5] 3.7 Arbitrage and Premiums - On August 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.22 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -542.83 yuan/kilogram [6] - The ratio of the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver futures was about 84.47, down 0.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.72, up 0.86% [6] 3.8 Fundamental Data - On August 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 18.85%, and the trading volume of silver decreased by 4.85% [7] - The gold delivery volume was 8,250 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 24,750 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The main focus of precious metals is on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and rhythm. Multiple Fed officials are open to a shift to loose monetary policy, strongly supporting precious metal prices. If economic growth data resonates with the July US non-farm payrolls data, it may accelerate the Fed's monetary policy shift to a looser stance and further push up gold prices [8]. - The trading logic of silver is generally in sync with that of gold, with future loose expectations on the macro level as the main line, and its pricing weight is higher than the supply-demand fundamentals of silver. With the logic of the gold-silver ratio returning, silver prices are expected to continue the upward trend [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Summary - Macro: Fed officials' statements indicate that the expectation of a shift to loose monetary policy within the Fed is rising, which is expected to support precious metal prices. Geopolitical risk premium has a relatively low weight in precious metal pricing, and the short-term main line lies in the Fed's loose expectations and rhythm [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 6, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.80 yuan/gram and closed at 783.68 yuan/gram, a change of 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 781.96 yuan/gram, down 0.22% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,104.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,182.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 372,060 lots, and the open interest was 373,376 lots. The night session closed at 9,180 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 6, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.22%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.53%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On August 6, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 249 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 336 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 239,517 lots, a change of -0.54% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,516 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,708 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 532,607 lots, a change of 17.04% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 952.79 tons, down 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,112.28 tons, up 67.8 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 6, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -10.74 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -706.17 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 85.35, a change of -1.02% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 90.05, a change of -0.41% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On August 6, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 29,226 kg, a change of -14.53% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 231,594 kg, a change of -14.47% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,764 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 15,690 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 8,950 yuan/kg and 9,450 yuan/kg [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The "Big and Beautiful" bill has passed, the U.S. debt ceiling will still expand, Trump has repeatedly called for replacing the Fed Chairman, and a relatively loose monetary policy is needed to support it, so gold is expected to remain relatively strong [8][9] - The gold-silver ratio is at a high level, and some so-called safe-haven demand may flow to silver, but due to the relatively high volatility of silver itself, more attention should be paid to position control and stop-loss protection when operating, and the silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern [9] Market News and Important Data - Trump's chief trade advisor Peter Navarro criticized Powell for refusing to cut interest rates, saying it could be his third major policy mistake in six years, and if he continues the tight monetary policy route at the July 29 Fed meeting, he will become the worst Fed Chairman in history [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On July 8, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 771.66 yuan/gram, closed at 776.22 yuan/gram, up 0.64% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 187,574 lots and an open interest of 179,131 lots. The night session opened at 774.98 yuan/gram and closed at 769.52 yuan/gram, down 0.65% from the afternoon close [2] - On July 8, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,856 yuan/kilogram, closed at 8,953 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 418,168 lots and an open interest of 338,144 lots. The night session opened at 8,940 yuan/gram and closed at 8,908 yuan/gram, down 0.10% from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 8, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.40%, up 0.05% from the previous trading day, and the 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.52%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On July 8, 2025, on the Au2502 contract, the long position changed by 79 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position changed by 46 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 245,162 lots, down 7.74% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2502 contract, the long position decreased by 231 lots, and the short position decreased by 170 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 715,924 lots, down 5.78% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 946.51 tons, down 1.15 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF position was 14,935.15 tons, up 66.41 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On July 8, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -0.23 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -665.35 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 86.70, down 0.27% from the previous trading day, and the price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 90.59, up 0.58% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On July 8, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 28,986 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 319,210 kilograms, down 41.92% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 13,086 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 21,270 kilograms [7]

Report Summary Market News and Important Data - Trump sent tariff letters to 14 countries on August 1, 2025, imposing 25% tariffs on imported goods from Japan and South Korea, and 25% - 40% tariffs on Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, etc. An additional 10% tariff will be imposed on countries aligning with the anti - US policies of BRICS countries. The suspension period for reciprocal tariffs was extended to August 1 [1]. - White House officials stated that specific country tariffs and industry tariffs will not be stacked. The Fed Chair candidate Wash suggested lowering interest rates, and White House trade advisor Navarro called on the Fed Council to intervene in Powell's stance [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On July 7, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 775.38 yuan/gram, closed at 771.30 yuan/gram, down 0.74% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 190,256 lots, and the open interest was 175,760 lots. In the night session, it opened at 771.66 yuan/gram and closed at 775.68 yuan/gram, up 0.36% from the afternoon close [2]. - On July 7, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,919 yuan/kilogram, closed at 8,872 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 261,611 lots, and the open interest was 229,481 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,856 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,916 yuan/kilogram, down 0.19% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 7, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield closed at 4.35%, with a change of 0.05% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year yields had no available change data [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On July 7, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, the long position changed by 36 lots, and the short position changed by 13 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 265,734 lots, down 10.42% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2502 contract, the long position decreased by 112 lots, and the short position decreased by 387 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract was 676,826 lots, down 20.03% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the gold ETF position was 947.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,868.74 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 13.16 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 613.51 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 86.94, down 0.22% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 90.06, with a change of - 1.64% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On July 7, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 38,836 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 549,594 kilograms, up 32.24% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,392 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 25,800 kilograms [7]. Investment Suggestions - Gold: It is still recommended to buy on dips for hedging operations, considering Trump may face more obstacles after promoting the "big and beautiful" bill, and such a bill requires a relatively loose monetary policy [8]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver prices are slightly stronger than gold due to occasional rebounds in risk sentiment and the gold - silver ratio deviating from the central level for a long time. It is also recommended to buy on dips [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8]. - Options: Put on hold [8]

Market News and Key Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending June 7 was 248,000, higher than the expected 240,000, reaching a new high since the week ending October 5, 2024 [1] - The monthly rate of the US core PPI in May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.30%. Traders fully priced in two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, and the US dollar declined for two consecutive days [1] - US President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell and demanded a 200 - basis - point interest rate cut [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On June 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.00 yuan/gram and closed at 785.16 yuan/gram, up 0.98% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 218,198 lots, and the open interest was 172,351 lots. In the night session, it opened at 786.98 yuan/gram and closed at 786.02 yuan/gram, up 0.65% from the afternoon close [2] - On June 12, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 8,859 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,819 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 662,487 lots, and the open interest was 432,670 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,818 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,787 yuan/kilogram, down 0.53% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 12, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.41%, down 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.46%, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract on June 12, 2025, long positions decreased by 72 lots compared to the previous day, and short positions decreased by 618 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 427,902 lots, up 36.23% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2502 contract, long positions decreased by 5,010 lots, and short positions increased by 1,704 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,085,408 lots, down 20.62% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 937.91 tons on the previous day, up 3.72 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 14,729.08 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 12, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was - 2.53 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was - 523.63 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 89.03, up 1.93% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 92.85, up 1.75% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On June 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 50,430 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 805,092 kilograms, up 64.55% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 15,196 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 40,230 kilograms [7] Investment Recommendations - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with an operating range of 760 - 765 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. It is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, but avoid aggressive chasing. More attention should be paid to position control and strict stop - loss [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: Put on hold [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - Since May, the gold price has been in a volatile pattern, influenced by Trump's changing attitude towards tariff policies and Fed Chairman Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Now, Trump's mention of replacing the Fed Chairman and urging rate cuts increases market uncertainty. For gold, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with an operating range of 760 yuan/gram - 765 yuan/gram. Silver prices are strong, hitting a record high, but due to its high volatility, it's advisable to buy on dips for hedging without aggressive chasing, and pay more attention to position control and strict stop-loss execution. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs. Trump called the Los Angeles riots a "foreign invasion," and a US judge rejected California's request to immediately stop Trump from sending troops to the state. Russia and the US will hold a new round of talks in Moscow soon [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On June 10, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 774.00 yuan/gram and closed at 775.06 yuan/gram, up 0.04% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 179,960 lots, and the open interest was 170,163 lots. The night session opened at 777.70 yuan/gram and closed at 774.96 yuan/gram, up 0.23% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 8,900 yuan/kg and closed at 8,887 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 969,816 lots, and the open interest was 465,984 lots. The night session opened at 8,910 yuan/kg and closed at 8,889 yuan/kg, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 10, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.49%, up 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.46%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Long and Short Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On June 10, 2025, on the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 38 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 44 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 326,479 lots, down 28.17% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 4,031 lots, and the short positions decreased by 227 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,458,778 lots, down 21.36% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - On the previous day, the gold ETF holdings were 935.91 tons, down 0.31 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,689.50 tons, up 32.52 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 10, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 1.25 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -645.16 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver futures contract prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 87.21, up 0.29% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 90.68, down 1.64% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 10, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 50,072 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 617,842 kg, up 5.80% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 21,766 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 57,180 kg [7].