1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation", and the ratings for various varieties are also mainly "oscillation" [8][10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflict disturbances have weakened, and the focus of black commodity trading has shifted to the domestic market. During the off - season, hot metal production has increased. Against the backdrop of low valuations, furnace materials have rebounded from oversold levels. However, the construction and manufacturing industries in China have entered the off - season, and steel demand and inventory are gradually under pressure. Tangshan's emission reduction has a short - term impact on supply, with limited overall influence, and prices have re - entered an oscillatory state [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - Tangshan's stricter emission reduction requirements have led to a weakening of furnace materials and a strengthening of steel prices. The impact on hot metal needs continuous observation. The market is cautious, especially as steel is in the off - season with signs of weakening demand, so the unilateral increase in prices is small. Coking coal and coke have declined more than iron ore due to the resumption of coal mines and emission reduction [1][2] 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: This week, the shipments from overseas mines and the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased month - on - month, with less pressure on the supply side. Although there is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the coming weeks due to previous shipments from overseas mines, the amplitude is limited [3][10][11] - Demand: Steel mills' profitability remains high, and there is no driving force for hot metal to reduce production due to profit reasons. However, Tangshan's emission reduction may affect short - term ore demand, but its impact on medium - and long - term iron ore demand is small [3][10][11] 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Affected by the resumption of coal mines, the reduction of the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal in the third quarter, and Tangshan's emission reduction news, the market was weak. The supply recovery is slow, demand is expected to decline, and there is still pressure on mine - end inventory reduction, with limited upward price drivers [3][14] - Coke: The spot market sentiment has improved, and inventory has been further reduced. However, affected by supply - demand rumors, the market oscillated weakly. Supply has decreased slightly, and there is a risk of a decline in short - term hot metal production, so the upward price space is limited [13] 3.4 Alloys - Manganese Silicon: The price increase of port ore is limited. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may decrease. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and prices are expected to oscillate [4][7] - Ferrosilicon: The current supply - demand relationship is healthy, but there is a possibility of supply - demand gap narrowing in the future. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] 3.5 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Off - season demand is declining, supply pressure exists, and the market is affected by sentiment, with prices expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes, cold - repair conditions, and demand sustainability [7][15] - Soda Ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][15][17] 3.6 Steel - Affected by Tangshan's emission reduction news, steel prices rose at the end of the session. Supply has positive factors, but demand is under off - season pressure. Overall supply and demand have weakened month - on - month, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For the steel market, with Trump raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, there is greater pressure on steel exports. The policy - driven positive factors have basically been priced in. The real - estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. The peak of apparent demand has passed, and with the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand will further weaken. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and the weak expectation remains unchanged. Technically, prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - For the iron ore market, steel mills' profitability is acceptable, but iron - water production is expected to decline further due to the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel - mill production restrictions. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline is slowing down, and the high proportion of trade - mine inventory exerts pressure on futures prices. The futures price may break downward under the influence of falling steel prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Factors**: Trump's tariff increase, real - estate market conditions, demand seasonality, and limited impact of production - cut rumors. The market is changing from strong to weak reality, and prices are expected to continue falling [1]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded - steel and hot - rolled - coil futures and spot prices have declined. For example, the threaded - steel futures main - contract closing price is 2,928 yuan/ton, down 1.74% from last week [1]. - **Production**: The national building - materials steel - mill threaded - steel production is 225.51 tons, down 2.58% from last week, while hot - rolled - coil production is 319.55 tons, up 4.54% [1]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased. For instance, the threaded - steel social inventory is 394.59 tons, down 5.25% from last week [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The national building - materials trading volume (7 - day moving average) is 13.95 tons, down 30.08% from last week [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Factors**: Steel mills' iron - water production is expected to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is rising seasonally, and port inventory decline is slowing. The futures price may break downward [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of DCE iron - ore futures main contract is 695.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.43% from last week. Spot prices of various iron - ore powders have also declined [3]. - **Shipment**: The global iron - ore shipment in the week of May 27 - June 2, 2025, is 3,431.0 tons, up 242.3 tons from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore is 13,866.58 tons, down 0.87% from last week. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills is 1,210.52 tons, down 2.65% [3]. - **Shipping and Exchange Rates**: BCI freight rates have increased, and the US dollar index has risen 0.55% [3].

盖色金属数据日报 | 2025/05/23 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | 【铁矿石】产业定价为主 目前的综合关税仍然处于50%左右的高位。基于美国贸易战反复的行为下,暂时仅看黑色板块的反弹。目前阶段市场确实需 要考虑旺季结束后,钢材表需见顶回落,高铁水下库存的情况。本期铁水出现延续小幅下滑,但整体仍处于高位,钢厂利 不错的情况下,短期想要看到铁水的快速下滑是比较困难的。预期高铁水在5月份可以持续,到港稳定的情况下,港口库存 处于窄幅波动。不考虑限产因素的话,5月份炉料端并不会有额外的故事可以讲,铁矿依然处于震荡。5月之后,若钢材基 市场需要钢厂的自发性减产行为出现,那钢厂的利润的收缩则是必要条件,个人更偏向于材弱于矿。 【钢材】周度数据持稳,重点关注煤炭何时 ...

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月8日） 1. 据Mysteel，限产消息对东北区域影响有限，吉林区域由于近年钢厂生产意愿持续低迷还处于减量状 态，故与限产难有关联；至于辽黑两地限产消息影响几何，也需等政策最终落地方能知晓。 2. 路透公布对USDA 5月供需报告中美国农作物产量的数据预测，分析师平均预计，美国2025/2026年度 大豆产量料为43.38亿蒲式耳，预估区间介于43-44亿蒲式耳，USDA农业展望论坛为43.7亿蒲式耳。 3. 巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）预计，巴西5月大豆出口为1260万吨，去年同期为1347万吨；豆粕 出口预计为187万吨，去年同期为197万吨。 4. 阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至5月5日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存环比 上升了0.1%，达到2074.2万桶。其中，中质馏分油库存下降了20%，至173万桶，为七个月低点。 5. 据SMM了解，近期华南市场光伏玻璃企业部分报价下调至13元/平方米，主要原因为组件需求以及组 件价格的下降使组件企业对原料接受心态下降，原报价无接单，为促进接单，局部报价下调，预计后续 光伏玻璃市场或将出现普遍下调预 ...

胎年金属数据日报 周一期价冲高回落,盘面情绪在"减产"消息影响下略好了些,至少在这个消息驱动下,钢材可能还是最优多头配置品种, 现货跟涨略显乏力,成交尚可。市场传闻的28号会议暂时也没有新的消息,传闻搁置对行情无法产生新的驱动。宏观层 面,28号新闻发布会上能量化的增量信息不多,市场更希望看到有实打实的政策落地,或许才会更有信心;微观层面,供 需矛盾不突出,钢材库存还处于季节性改善的阶段,反馈到价格行为上,更多是一种"现实不差但预期很差" 的阶段, "预期差"来自于5月以后建材进入季节性淡季以及出口链条开始逐渐转弱,没有信心导致卖方持货意愿不高;品种估值并 不算高,单边投机追空的性价比不高。总体看,五一长假临近,单边敬口降低轻仓过节仍是主要思路。 【焦煤焦炭】第二轮提涨难落地,焦煤竞拍持续走弱 现货端,部分钢厂拒绝焦炭第二轮提涨,市场情绪较弱,炼焦煤竞拍持续走弱,成交价格以下跌为主,港口贸易准一焦炭服 价1350(->,炼焦煤价格指数1090.3(-2.0);蒙煤方面,甘其毛都口岸通关大幅下降,降库明显,但整体供应依然充 裕,市场弱稳运行,现甘其毛都口岸:蒙5原煤835(-),蒙5精煤1030 (-10),蒙 ...