2026年一季度地方政府债券发行规模预计突破2万亿元 2026年地方政府发债筹资拉开序幕。 根据山东省财政厅披露信息，2026年1月5日，山东省发行723.81亿元地方政府债券，而这是今年全国首 个发行地方政府债券的省份，也由此宣告2026年地方政府债券正式启动发行。 在地方财政收支矛盾较大背景下，地方政府重大项目建设及偿还旧债资金，愈加依赖通过发行政府债券 形式筹集资金。而为了尽早发挥地方政府债券资金对稳投资、扩内需、补短板的重要作用，推动2026年 经济平稳运行，去年底财政部已经提前下达了部分2026年新增地方政府债务限额，这也使得地方像前些 年一样，在1月就启动发债，以支持重大项目建设来稳投资稳经济，以及偿还旧债来缓释债务风险。 从各方披露信息来看，2026年一季度地方政府债券发行规模预计会超过2万亿元。 按照全国人大常委会授权，提前下达地方的新增债务限额必须控制在当年新增地方政府债务限额的60% 以内。2025年新增地方政府债务限额为5.2万亿元，这意味着财政部提前下达2026年地方债务限额将不 能超过3.12万亿元。 财达证券常务副总经理胡恒松告诉第一财经，从过往实践来看，2023~2024年，提前 ...

Core Insights - The issuance of local government special bonds and replacement bonds will commence on January 5, 2026, with Shandong Province planning to issue 24.609 billion yuan for refinancing existing hidden debts [1] - A total of 6 trillion yuan in replacement bonds is expected to be fully issued, marking a significant phase in the replacement of hidden debts, although local debt management efforts will continue [1][2] - The focus of local debt management is shifting from debt replacement to establishing long-term mechanisms, with an emphasis on the market-oriented transformation of local government financing platforms [3] Group 1: Debt Replacement and Management - The issuance of 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds, along with special local government bonds for debt management, will alleviate the immediate debt pressure on local governments and reduce interest expenses, potentially saving around 400 billion yuan in interest payments [2] - Experts suggest that the local debt management strategy will transition from primarily replacing debts to building sustainable mechanisms, with a target to eliminate hidden debts by 2028 [3] - The central economic work conference has called for optimizing debt restructuring and replacement methods to mitigate risks associated with operational debts of local government financing platforms [4] Group 2: Market Transformation of Financing Platforms - The reform and transformation of local government financing platforms (城投公司) have accelerated, with 362 companies publicly announcing their exit from government financing roles as of December 30, 2025 [4] - The key to managing operational debts lies in the "exit from the list" process, which will determine whether the remaining financial debts of these companies will still be classified as operational debts [4] - Future debt management will rely heavily on special bonds, with the Ministry of Finance allocating 800 billion yuan annually from new local government special bonds for debt management until 2028 [3] Group 3: Risk Prevention and Control - The establishment of a dedicated Debt Management Department within the Ministry of Finance aims to centralize the management of government debts, enhancing coordination and resource allocation [7] - The department will focus on preventing and mitigating hidden debt risks, addressing issues such as underreporting and illegal activities related to hidden debts [7] - The goal is to create a comprehensive debt risk prevention system that ensures the rational use of government debt funds while avoiding systemic risks [7]

Group 1 - The issuance of local government bonds in China has exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time in history, reaching 10.29 trillion yuan as of December 22, with general bonds at 2.61 trillion yuan and special bonds at 7.68 trillion yuan [1] - The special bonds include 3.09 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds and 4.59 trillion yuan in new special bonds, indicating a significant focus on refinancing hidden debts [1] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds aimed at repaying existing debts has resumed since August, with over 300 billion yuan issued this year, highlighting ongoing efforts to manage local debt [1] Group 2 - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt limit, with 200 billion yuan designated for new special bonds to support investment and 300 billion yuan for resolving existing project debts [2] - The issuance of new local special bonds has surpassed the initial target of 4.4 trillion yuan for 2025, reaching 4.59 trillion yuan, which is 104.2% of the planned issuance [2] - The adjustment of the debt limit has favored economically strong provinces, with specific allocations disclosed for several regions, indicating a strategic approach to debt management [3] Group 3 - The 500 billion yuan debt limit has become a crucial support for fiscal spending, despite challenges from land finance and short-term revenue pressures, suggesting a potential recovery in fiscal expenditure growth [3] - The proportion of new debt limits allocated to self-auditing provinces is the highest, indicating a shift towards enhancing risk prevention in local debt issuance [3]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in China has reached a historic high this year, with a significant portion of the funds allocated for debt repayment rather than new projects [2][3]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - In the first 11 months of this year, approximately 10 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued, surpassing last year's total of about 9.8 trillion yuan [2]. - The issuance of refinancing bonds accounted for about 4.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 20%, while new bond issuance was about 5.2 trillion yuan, up about 11% year-on-year [2][3]. - Approximately 62% of the bond funds issued were used for repaying old debts, including refinancing existing hidden debts and settling overdue payments to enterprises [3][6]. Group 2: Allocation of Funds - Of the funds allocated for project construction, about 27% was directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 17% towards transportation infrastructure, and 12% towards affordable housing projects [6]. - This year, the scope of special bonds has significantly expanded, allowing for allocations towards land reserves, which previously were restricted, with over 500 billion yuan directed to such projects [6]. - Special bonds have also been allocated for government investment funds, exceeding 80 billion yuan, aimed at supporting early-stage technology enterprises and hard technology sectors [6]. Group 3: Debt Management and Risks - As of September 2025, the total local government debt is projected to be around 53.7 trillion yuan, remaining within the limit of approximately 57.9 trillion yuan [8]. - The average remaining maturity of local government bonds is 10.5 years, with an average interest rate of 2.86% [8]. - There is a need for careful management of local government debt growth to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability, with suggestions to optimize the debt structure between central and local governments [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first three quarters of 2025, the issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds reached a record high for the same period, with the 2 - trillion - yuan implicit debt replacement nearing completion. The fourth - quarter government bond supply pressure is expected to decline, and the incremental fiscal policy will maintain its previous positive tone, with ample room for future action. The bond market interest rate is expected to fluctuate downward within a certain range, and efforts will continue to be made to resolve debts while promoting development and build a long - term government debt management mechanism [2][32][34]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Local Government Bond - Related Policy Review - Fiscal policy: A more active fiscal policy is implemented, with a larger - scale government bond issuance plan. The fiscal deficit rate is increased to about 4%, and the deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan. The planned issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is 1.3 trillion yuan, and special treasury bonds of 500 billion yuan are to support state - owned banks in replenishing core tier - one capital. The new local government special bond quota is 4.4 trillion yuan. The government also promotes the early issuance and use of bonds and guides and drives social capital [4][5][6]. - Debt replacement: The implicit debt replacement policy is accelerated, with a 6 - trillion - yuan local government debt quota approved to replace the stock implicit debt from 2024 - 2026, 2 trillion yuan per year. Additionally, 80 billion yuan is allocated from new local government special bonds annually for five consecutive years for debt resolution. The debt - risk - high area list is dynamically adjusted [7][8]. - Debt management: The local debt monitoring system and government debt risk indicator system are improved, and the special bond management mechanism is optimized. Penalties for illegal debt - raising and false debt - resolution are strengthened, and the reform and transformation of local government financing platforms are promoted [9]. 3.2 Review of the Local Government Bond Market in the First Three Quarters of 2025 - **Issuance overview**: In the first three quarters of 2025, 1,816 local government bonds were issued, totaling 8.53 trillion yuan, a 27.60% increase year - on - year. Special bonds accounted for 75.96% of new issuances. New bonds were issued at 4.35 trillion yuan, and refinancing bonds at 4.18 trillion yuan, with 1.99 trillion yuan of special refinancing special bonds for implicit debt replacement. The net financing was 6.15 trillion yuan, a 54.24% increase. The issuance of land reserve special bonds accelerated in Q3. The issuance of bonds with a term of 10 years or more increased, and the weighted average issuance term was 15.63 years. Economically active regions and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas were the main issuers of new special bonds, while key provinces mainly issued refinancing bonds [13][19][20]. - **Interest rate and spread analysis**: In Q3 2025, the average issuance interest rate of local government bonds rebounded due to multiple factors. The average issuance interest rates in Q1, Q2, and Q3 were 1.94%, 1.85%, and 2.01% respectively. The spread widened in the first three quarters of 2025, and there were significant differences in the spread trends among provinces [22][23]. - **Investment areas of local government special bonds**: In the first three quarters of 2025, infrastructure was the main focus of special bond funds. The top three investment areas were urban infrastructure, transportation infrastructure construction, and urban - rural development, accounting for 51.95% of the total. Land reserve special bonds for idle land recovery projects restarted, with an issuance amount accounting for 7.01% [29]. 3.3 Future Outlook for Local Government Bonds - **Issuance outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the government bond issuance will enter the final stage, with reduced supply pressure. The new local government debt quota for 2026 is expected to be issued more quickly. The planned issuance of local government bonds in Q4 is 1.26 trillion yuan, including 730 billion yuan of new special bonds [32]. - **Fiscal policy outlook**: The fiscal policy will maintain its previous positive tone in Q4, with funds tilted towards large economic provinces. The government will strengthen the supervision of relevant funds and project lifecycle management [34]. - **Interest rate outlook**: The bond market interest rate is expected to fluctuate downward within a certain range, affected by multiple factors such as monetary policy, market sentiment, and policy changes [35]. - **Debt management outlook**: The principle of resolving debts while promoting development will be adhered to, and efforts will be made to build a long - term government debt management mechanism. The government will continue to implement a package of debt - resolution measures, strengthen debt management, and improve the performance of bond fund use [36][37].

Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of China's fiscal policy in the first half of 2025, emphasizing increased investment in social welfare and measures to control local government hidden debt [1][2]. Group 1: Social Welfare Investments - The fiscal policy has increased investment in social welfare, with a 2% rise in basic pension levels for retirees and a 20 yuan increase in the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions [1]. - The central government allocated 1.1 trillion yuan in subsidies to support timely and full payment of basic pension benefits [1]. Group 2: Control of Hidden Debt - The report indicates effective measures to curb new hidden debt, prohibiting government expenditures and investment projects not included in the budget [2]. - A lifelong accountability system for government borrowing has been established, along with a mechanism for tracing debt issues, ensuring that any new hidden debt is identified and addressed promptly [2]. Group 3: Tax Reforms - The report mentions ongoing tax reforms, particularly the adjustment of consumption tax collection to enhance local revenue sources and improve the consumption environment [3]. - The specifics of which tax items will be shifted to the wholesale and retail stages and how the revenue will be distributed between central and local governments remain to be clarified [3]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report outlines six key tasks for future fiscal policy, including the use of more proactive fiscal measures, support for employment and foreign trade, and improvement of social welfare [3]. - Emphasis is placed on enhancing services for the elderly and children, providing subsidies for elderly care, and implementing free preschool education [3]. - The Ministry of Finance will continue to enforce policies to manage hidden debt and strengthen financial monitoring and emergency response [3].

Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of China's fiscal policy in the first half of 2025, emphasizing increased investment in social welfare and measures to control local government hidden debts [2][3]. Group 1: Social Welfare Investments - The fiscal policy has increased investment in social welfare, including a 2% rise in basic pension levels for retirees and a 20 yuan increase in the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions [2]. - The central government allocated 1.1 trillion yuan in subsidies to support timely and full payment of basic pension benefits [2]. Group 2: Control of Hidden Debts - The report indicates effective measures to curb new hidden debts, prohibiting government expenditures and investment projects not included in the budget [3]. - A lifetime accountability system for government borrowing has been implemented, along with a mechanism for tracing debt issues, ensuring strict accountability for any new hidden debts discovered [3]. Group 3: Tax Reforms - The report outlines ongoing tax reforms, particularly the adjustment of consumption tax collection to enhance local revenue sources and improve the consumption environment [4]. - The specifics of which tax items will be shifted to the wholesale and retail stages and how the revenue will be distributed between central and local governments are still under observation [4]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report identifies six key tasks for future fiscal policy, including the use of more proactive fiscal measures, support for employment and foreign trade, and further improvement of social welfare [4][5]. - Emphasis will be placed on risk prevention, with continued implementation of a comprehensive debt replacement policy and strict accountability for any new hidden debt behaviors [5].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance has released a report on the implementation of China's fiscal policy for the first half of 2025, emphasizing the need to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The Ministry will continue to implement a comprehensive debt management policy, focusing on the steady advancement of hidden debt replacement while addressing new hidden debt behaviors promptly and holding accountable those responsible [1] - There will be a strengthened analysis and monitoring of fiscal operations, with enhanced cash flow management and emergency response measures [1] Group 2: Support for Local Governments - The Ministry aims to solidify the "three guarantees" bottom line to ensure stable operations of local finances [1] - Relevant policy tools will be utilized to assist in the reform and transformation of financing platforms, risk management of small financial institutions, and the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need to continuously prevent and resolve risks in key areas while implementing a comprehensive debt management policy [1] Group 1: Risk Management - The report highlights the importance of addressing new hidden debt behaviors promptly and holding accountable those responsible [1] - There will be a focus on strengthening financial operation analysis and dynamic monitoring to ensure stability [1] Group 2: Policy Implementation - The government plans to utilize relevant policy tools to assist in the reform and transformation of financing platforms and small financial institutions [1] - Efforts will be made to manage land acquisition and the purchase of existing residential properties for the purpose of providing affordable housing [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, fiscal policy exerted force in advance, supporting macro - economic stability and local debt resolution. The report focuses on the characteristics of local government bonds from the beginning of the year to the end of the third quarter [9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Debt Primary Issuance Characteristics - **Feature 1: The theoretical early - batch quota for 2026 reaches 3.12 trillion yuan** - The early - batch quota for local government bonds may be normally issued at the end of the year, but formal issuance may occur after the new year. Based on 60% of the previous year's new quota, the theoretical scale of the early - batch quota for 2026 is 3.12 trillion yuan [10] - **Feature 2: Issuance and net financing scale reach a record high for the same period** - As of the third quarter of 2025, the local debt issuance scale reached 853.32 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 184.56 billion yuan. The net financing scale reached 615.18 billion yuan, an increase of 216.33 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024. The issuance of new general bonds was small and stable, while new special bonds were mainly issued in the first and third quarters [11][18] - **Feature 3: Issuance structure: The proportion of new special bonds has rebounded, and the proportion of refinancing special bonds has declined** - As of the third quarter of 2025, new special bonds and refinancing special bonds accounted for 43% and 33% respectively. The proportion of refinancing general bonds was 16%, and the proportion of new general bonds was 8% [22] - **Feature 4: The issuance rhythm of special bonds is advanced, and the issuance accelerated significantly in the third quarter** - As of September 2025, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached 367.72 billion yuan, the highest in history [24] - **Feature 5: Special new special bonds were issued beyond expectations, and the 2 - trillion - yuan implicit debt replacement is nearing completion** - As of the third quarter of 2025, special new special bonds exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, mainly for local debt resolution and local arrears clearance. The refinancing special bonds for replacing implicit debt reached 198.62 billion yuan [26] - **Feature 6: The issuance of land reserve special bonds is regionally concentrated, and there is still a gap between the actual issuance and the announced scale** - As of the third quarter of 2025, 10 provinces issued land reserve special bonds, with a total scale of 34.69 billion yuan. As of October 14, 2025, the announced land acquisition scale was 62.44 billion yuan [32] - **Feature 7: The proportion of the issuance scale of special bonds in "self - reviewed and self - issued" provinces has increased** - From 2020 - 2024, the proportion of the issuance scale of special bonds in the pilot areas was about 54%, and it rose to 64% as of the third quarter of 2025, possibly due to faster approval [37] - **Feature 8: The issuance term has been extended** - As of the third quarter of 2025, the average issuance term of local government bonds was 14.60 years, an increase of 1.37 years compared to 2024. The proportion of local government bonds with a term of over 15 years increased in both scale and quantity [39][43] - **Feature 9: The issuance interest rate and spread rebounded in the third quarter** - As of the third quarter of 2025, the average issuance interest rate of local government bonds was 1.94%, and the average issuance spread was 14.22 basis points, a rebound of 5.74 basis points compared to 2024. The spread rose significantly from August to September [47] - **Feature 10: The spreads in various regions widened overall in the third quarter, and the differentiation was still obvious** - In the third quarter of 2025, the spreads in various regions widened, but the credit differentiation pattern between regions was still obvious, generally following the rule that "the stronger the fiscal strength, the lower the spread" [53] - **Feature 11: The spread of special refinancing bonds is higher than that of ordinary refinancing bonds** - The spread of special refinancing bonds is higher, mainly because the issuance term of special refinancing bonds is generally longer. Nationally, the spreads of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds are 17.19BP and 17.75BP respectively, higher than those of ordinary refinancing bonds and ordinary new special bonds [55] 3.2 Local Debt Secondary Transaction Characteristics - **Feature 12: The trading volume increased, the trading price rose, and the turnover rate decreased** - As of the third quarter of 2025, the trading volume of local government bonds was 16.08 trillion yuan, an increase compared to the same period in 2024. The turnover rate was 3.53%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.17 percentage points, mainly due to the significant decline in the turnover rate of general bonds [59] 3.3 Local Debt Institutional Behavior Characteristics - **Feature 13: The market is still mainly in a buying state, but the buying volume and net buying amount have both decreased** - As of the third quarter, the market was still mainly in a buying state, but the buying volume and net buying amount decreased. Insurance was the largest buyer, and institutions such as large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and securities firms were net sellers [4]