不包括食品服务、汽车经销商、建材和加油站。 责任编辑：王许宁 数据显示，12月份零售销售环比持平，预估中值为增长0.4%。 数据显示，12月份零售销售环比持平，预估中值为增长0.4%。 65位经济学家预测区间为下降0.2%至增长0.7%。 11月零售销售未作修正，为增长0.6%。 12月份零售销售（不含汽车）与前月持平。 零售销售（扣除汽车和汽油）持平。 零售销售"对照组"下降0.1%。 零售销售"对照组"下降0.1%。 不包括食品服务、汽车经销商、建材和加油站。 责任编辑：王许宁 65位经济学家预测区间为下降0.2%至增长0.7%。 11月零售销售未作修正，为增长0.6%。 12月份零售销售（不含汽车）与前月持平。 零售销售（扣除汽车和汽油）持平。 ...

U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December, putting consumer spending and the overall economy on a slower growth path heading into the new year. ...

美国12月零售销售环比 0%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.6%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their market trends, supply - demand situations, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on these analyses [2] 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market Trend**: Last week, copper prices oscillated at a relatively high level, similar to gold. Before the Spring Festival, the overall open interest may shrink to 550,000 lots. In the long - term, the US $12 billion commercial stockpiling plan and the call from the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association to increase commercial reserves may encourage long - term funds to go long on copper at low prices. The price is expected to be lower before the Spring Festival and higher after it [2] - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. Domestic smelter output is expected to be stable around the Spring Festival. The Shanghai copper premium is 35 yuan, and the Guangdong discount is 105 yuan. The social inventory is 331,300 tons [2] - **Overseas Situation**: There are many news of production cuts from traditional mainstream mining companies. The market is concerned about the US government's control over long - term copper resources. The LME copper inventory has increased to 184,300 tons, and the LME spot discount is $77 [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Hold a light position or conduct inter - period reverse arbitrage during the Spring Festival [2] Aluminum and Alumina - **Market Trend**: The market continues to oscillate. The domestic operating capacity of alumina is 95.05 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.5 million tons. The alumina balance remains in surplus, and the weekly inventory has increased by 55,000 tons to 5.114 million tons [2] - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream leading aluminum enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 59.4% last week. High aluminum prices have continuously suppressed downstream demand, and some processing enterprises have entered the holiday in advance [2] - **Inventory and Spot**: The overall demand is weak. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 33,000 tons to 829,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods increased by 26,000 tons to 267,000 tons. The spot premium and discount have declined [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to the support effectiveness of the recent low point of 23,800 yuan. If it breaks, it will seek support at 23,000 yuan. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [2] Zinc - **Market Trend**: The "Wash Panic" accelerated the release of bearish sentiment. The Shanghai zinc price fell 5.36% last week, and the decline slowed down at the 24,500 yuan/ton level. The LME zinc price oscillated at a high level and remained in the rebound channel [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory decreased slightly to 107,600 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spot discount narrowed to $21.56/ton. The SMM zinc social inventory increased to 148,500 tons, and the fundamental strength of the domestic and foreign markets showed differentiation again. The loss of zinc spot imports expanded to over 3,000 yuan/ton [2] - **Consumption**: As the Spring Festival approaches, most terminals are on holiday, and the operating rate of downstream zinc enterprises has dropped significantly. Only a small number of enterprises make rigid purchases at low prices. High prices suppress demand, and the downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline in the next two weeks [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The Shanghai zinc market starts to reduce volatility for adjustment. The option double - selling strategy has good returns, and the profit space for single - side futures trading is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Lead - **Market Trend**: Last week, the lead prices of both domestic and foreign markets accelerated to test the lower support of the consolidation range. The Shanghai lead price fell 2.1%, and the LME lead price fell 1.48%. The import window remained open [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The LME lead inventory increased to 233,000 tons. The overseas surplus pressure was transmitted to the domestic market. The operating rates of SMM primary lead smelters and secondary lead smelters decreased. Some primary lead smelters in Hunan and Yunnan carried out maintenance or production cuts, and smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices [2] - **Consumption**: As the Spring Festival approaches, only a small number of downstream enterprises make rigid purchases at low prices. The spot trading volume has declined. The holiday time of battery enterprises has increased compared with previous years. Pay attention to the lead ingot inventory accumulation after the festival [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The lead price is at a low level, and the capital divergence has increased. The overall surplus situation remains unchanged. In the short term, both supply and demand are weak. The Shanghai lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,500 - 17,800 yuan/ton [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Trend**: The Shanghai nickel price fell from a high level last week, and the market trading volume decreased while the open interest slowly increased. The Shanghai stainless steel price showed a similar trend [2] - **Macro and Demand**: The social inventory of stainless steel has continued to increase. Market confidence has declined, and trading is light. Only a small amount of rigid replenishment is made. Terminal downstream procurement has basically ended [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The Jinchuan nickel premium is 9,500 yuan, the imported nickel discount is 50 yuan, and the electrowon nickel is at par. The pure nickel inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Market fear of high prices has emerged. It is recommended to be cautious [2] Tin - **Market Trend**: The Shanghai tin price is prone to follow the silver price. It shows a unilateral downward trend with relatively limited rebound. It is a small - volume variety, and the trading volume and open interest have a great impact around the Spring Festival [2] - **Supply**: The Indonesian exchange traded 2,720 tons of tin ingots in late January. There was a landslide in an Indonesian tin mine, but there is no news of impact on production. The earthquake in Myanmar is far from the Wa State production area. The market is concerned about the resumption of supply in the Wa State [2] - **Consumption**: The sharp decline in tin prices gives downstream enterprises an opportunity to stock up before the festival. The Steel Union tin inventory decreased by 1,658 tons to 9,898 tons last week. The global semiconductor sales in December 2025 continued to increase month - on - month [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to the high volatility of the overseas market with light trading. Also, pay attention to the inventory changes during and after the Spring Festival. The out - of - the - money call option selling strategy for the 2603 contract has realized profits. It was recommended to wait and see or go short with a light position against the MA20 moving average last week [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Market**: The lithium carbonate futures oscillated downward last week, and the market trading was active. The exchange policy affected market participation. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase [2] - **Spot Performance**: The spot price of Shanghai battery - grade lithium carbonate has dropped sharply. Mines are not willing to sell due to the price decline, and downstream enterprises have sufficient previous inventory and have lowered their acceptance prices for new orders [2] - **Macro and Demand**: The external strength has weakened significantly. The rebound of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is not enough to support market confidence. The power battery orders may decline, and the production schedule in February is expected to be greatly affected [2] - **Supply Factors**: The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 105,000 tons. The smelter inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 43,700 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 43,000 tons. The de - stocking speed has slowed down [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The lithium carbonate futures price has crashed, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high. Pay attention to risk prevention and control [2] Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated downward, dragged down by the general decline of the non - ferrous metal sector and the expected implementation of organic silicon emission reduction. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market stocking is coming to an end, and the trading activity has decreased [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has shrunk significantly. The production cuts of large Xinjiang factories have led to a significant decline in the number of open furnaces. Downstream polysilicon is expected to cut production by more than 20,000 tons month - on - month. If the organic silicon industry achieves its emission reduction target in the first quarter, the industrial silicon demand will be dragged down by about 90,000 tons [2] - **Inventory**: The Xinjiang factory inventory has decreased slightly, and the social inventory has climbed to 562,000 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 8,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the price is affected by the volatility transmission of the metal sector and the negative news of the organic silicon industry. Pay attention to the support at 8,400 yuan/ton [2] Polysilicon - **Price**: The spot price of polysilicon has increased. The N - type re - feed material is 53,600 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,300 yuan/ton. Affected by the industry meeting last week, enterprises are holding up prices, but there is no spot transaction. The futures price briefly soared due to news, but the capacity expectation has not been realized, and the price has returned to oscillate around the 50,000 yuan/ton mark [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The production of leading enterprises decreased in January, and the monthly output dropped to around 100,000 tons. The output in February is expected to further drop below 80,000 tons. The production schedule of the silicon wafer sector in February is generally stable, and there may be a small supply - demand gap in polysilicon in February [2] - **Inventory**: The latest inventory of silicon material manufacturers is 341,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The industry association announced the domestic photovoltaic new installation target of 180 - 240 GW in 2026, which meets market expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reiterated the anti - involution orientation of the industry. After the emotional correction of the market, it is expected to oscillate around the 50,000 yuan/ton mark [2]

Inflation and Economic Indicators - December CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, both in line with expectations; core CPI at 2.6% year-on-year is the lowest since March 2021, better than the expected 2.7%[6] - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January 2026 is at 54.0, showing a rebound for two consecutive months, indicating improved consumer satisfaction regarding inflation[6] Market Performance - S&P 500 index decreased by 0.4% for the week but is up 1.4% year-to-date; Nasdaq index fell by 0.7% weekly and is up 1.2% year-to-date; Russell 2000 index rose by 2.2% weekly and is up 7.7% year-to-date[20] - The market sentiment has shifted to a "greed" zone, with the VIX closing at 15.86, below the critical value of 20[14] Earnings Reports - In the first week of Q4 earnings, 35 S&P 500 companies reported, with 67% exceeding revenue expectations and 79% surpassing EPS expectations, overall EPS exceeded expectations by 5.8%[22] - Financial and consumer discretionary sectors saw earnings upgrades, while energy and healthcare sectors experienced significant downgrades[22] Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue its slow decline, with retail sales showing strength; the probability of a rate cut in January is less than 5%[22] - The market is pricing in the first rate cut of 2026 after the new Federal Reserve chair is appointed, likely in June[22] Sector Performance - Among 36 sectors, 19 showed gains, with the top five performers being Coal II (+9.1%), Defense (+5.7%), Non-ferrous Metals (+5.2%), Electrical Equipment (+4.8%), and Consumer Staples (+4.8%)[22]

宏观经济周报 2026 年第四周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数连续第七周扩张，扩张幅度较前期有所回升，年 初经济运行延续正向态势，景气水平在结构调整中保持稳定扩张。从分项结构 看，消费景气指数显著上行并处于较高水平，节前需求释放与服务消费活跃共 同推动消费端表现走强，成为当周景气改善的核心来源。投资景气指数稳定运 行在扩张区间内，虽未出现明显跳升，但企业投资活动节奏平稳，项目推进连 续性较强，反映投资端对经济运行的稳定支撑。出口景气指数略低于荣枯线， 外需不确定性对整体景气仍构成边际拖累。生产景气指数小幅回落，但仍接近 荣枯线水平，工业活动在年初阶段出现阶段性整理。综合来看，当周景气扩张 的质量主要体现在需求端改善，消费与投资形成合力，外需与生产的阶段性扰 动未改变整体向好格局。随着节后生产节奏恢复及政策预期逐步落地，经济运 行有望保持平稳向上的发展态势。 2025 年中国进出口 45.47 万亿元，增长 3.8%。其中，出口 26.99 万亿元，增长 6.1%；进口 18.48 万亿元，增长 0.5%。具体来看，一是规模稳中有进、韧性凸 显。在外部环境复杂严峻的背景下，2025 年中国外 ...

Key Points - The article discusses the recent trends in major asset classes, highlighting the rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and the concurrent increase in gold and silver prices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced slight declines of 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.0 basis points to 4.24% [2][3] - The article notes a decrease in the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which fell to $777.1 billion as of January 14, 2026, and a decline in net issuance of U.S. debt, with a rolling net issuance of -$9.23 million [2][62] - The U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3%. This has led to increased market speculation regarding Kevin Walsh as a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair [2][84] - The article highlights that the U.S. retail sales for November exceeded expectations, rising by 0.6% month-on-month, driven by significant improvements in motor vehicle sales and dining services, indicating resilience in consumer spending [2][85] - The article also mentions that initial jobless claims in the U.S. were lower than market expectations, with 198,000 claims reported, compared to the expected 215,000 [2][88]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luk Fook Holdings is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall performance and growth indicators suggest a positive outlook for the company [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a retail sales value increase of 26% year-on-year for the third quarter of FY2026, with mainland China contributing a 26% increase and markets outside mainland China showing a 20% increase [1]. - Same-store sales growth accelerated, with an overall increase of 15% year-on-year for the third quarter, driven by stronger performance in markets outside mainland China [2]. - The product mix is continuously optimizing, with a notable increase in the proportion of priced gold, which rose by 32% year-on-year [2]. - The company is maintaining a good pace of new product launches, including collaborations with cultural brands and innovative product designs [2]. Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company reported a revenue of 13,341 million HKD, with a projected increase to 15,580 million HKD in FY2026, representing a 17% growth [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1,100 million HKD in FY2025 to 1,450 million HKD in FY2026, reflecting a 32% increase [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.87 HKD in FY2025 to 2.47 HKD in FY2026 [4]. Store Expansion and Market Strategy - As of December 31, 2025, the company operated 3,073 stores, with 2,951 in mainland China and 122 in markets outside mainland China, indicating a strategic focus on expanding overseas [3]. - The company plans to open approximately 20 new stores overseas in the current fiscal year, reflecting its commitment to international market growth [3]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are 11.1X, 9.5X, and 8.5X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 8.33% in FY2025 to 10.41% in FY2026, showcasing enhanced profitability [6].

Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts in Shanghai reached 638,399 kilograms, with an increase of 9,703 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 23,488 yuan per kilogram, peaked at 23,688 yuan, and closed at 22,665 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.68% [1] - The increase in warehouse receipts was primarily driven by the performance of the Zhonggongmei Supply Chain warehouse, which saw an addition of 11,716 kilograms [2] Group 2 - In November, the U.S. retail sales month-on-month growth was recorded at 0.6%, exceeding market expectations of 0.4% [2] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year was reported at 3%, higher than the anticipated 2.7% [2] - The increase in retail sales was attributed to a rebound in automobile sales and strong growth during the holiday shopping season, with 10 out of 13 categories showing growth [2]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for November increased by only 0.2%, which is below the expected 0.3% increase according to Dow Jones, but it is 0.1 percentage points higher than the increase in October [3][6][11] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, remained flat month-over-month, which is lower than the anticipated 0.2% increase [3][6][11] - Year-over-year, the PPI rose by 3%, significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate of 2% [3][6][11] - The core PPI, excluding trade services, saw a year-over-year increase of 3.5%, marking the largest increase since March 2025 [3][6][11] - A notable factor in the PPI increase was a 0.9% rise in commodity prices, primarily driven by a 4.6% surge in energy prices, while service prices remained unchanged [3][6][11] Consumer Sector Insights - Retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing the expected growth of 0.4% [4][10][11] - Excluding the automotive sector, retail sales grew by 0.5%, which is higher than the anticipated 0.3% [4][10][11] - The growth in retail sales was broad-based, with significant increases in sales from automotive dealers, building materials and garden supply stores, gas stations, sporting goods stores, and various general merchandise stores, all exceeding 1% [4][10] - Year-over-year, retail sales rose by 3.3%, outpacing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 2.7% for the same month [5][10]