#数据 10月金银珠宝类零售销售总额同比增37.6%（9月增9.7%），通讯器材类增23.2%（9月增16.2%）。家用电器和音像器材类降14.6%（9月增3.3%）。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):统计局：社会消费品零售总额46291亿元，同比增长2.9%。按消费类型分，10月份，商品零售额41092亿元，同比增长2.8%；餐饮收入5199亿元，增长3.8%。 https://t.co/T4F3bc4lLu ...

Core Viewpoint - Retail sales in September experienced an unexpected decline, which contrasts with the more positive consumer sentiment observed in recent months [1] Group 1 - Retail sales decreased in September, indicating a potential shift in consumer spending behavior [1]

Core Insights - Singapore's retail sales growth is slowing down due to a decrease in tourist arrivals and an increase in local residents' overseas spending [1][2] - The September retail sales saw a month-on-month decline of 1.4% and a year-on-year growth rate drop from 5.3% in August to 2.8% [1] - The "SG60" neighborhood vouchers issued in July are losing their effectiveness in boosting consumption, with several retail categories experiencing consecutive month-on-month declines [1] Retail Sales Performance - In September, 10 out of 14 retail categories experienced month-on-month declines, with notable drops in computer and telecommunications equipment (-4.0%), gas stations (-5.3%), and supermarkets (-2.2%) [1] - Conversely, department stores (+15.6%) and automobiles (+4.5%) showed positive sales growth [1] Quarterly Overview - For the third quarter of 2025, Singapore's retail sales grew by 4.2% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 1.2% increase in the second quarter [2] - Despite strong employment growth expectations, a decrease in companies' willingness to raise salaries may lead to more restrained consumer spending, potentially suppressing retail activity [2] Future Outlook - October retail sales are expected to be boosted by events such as the F1 Singapore Grand Prix, large concerts, and an influx of Chinese tourists during the "Golden Week" from October 1 to 8 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the unexpected growth in UK retail sales for September, which has led to a mixed market reaction regarding the British pound and expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] Group 1: UK Retail Sales - UK retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month in September, with the previous value revised from 0.5% to 0.6%, while the market had anticipated a decline of 0.2% [1] - Year-on-year retail sales grew by 1.5%, significantly surpassing the expected 0.6% [1] - Core retail sales year-on-year rose by 2.3%, against a forecast of 0.7% [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Despite the positive retail data, expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England have increased, putting pressure on the British pound [1] - The GfK consumer confidence index for October in the UK rose to -17, marking a three-month high, better than the expected -20 [1] Group 3: Eurozone Consumer Confidence - Eurozone consumer confidence improved, attributed to lower borrowing costs from the European Central Bank and recent easing of inflation [1] - The preliminary consumer confidence index for October in the Eurozone increased to -14.2, reaching an eight-month high, outperforming the expected -15 [1]

Core Insights - The Philadelphia Fed's October business outlook index reported a significant decline of minus 12.8%, marking the weakest performance since April when it was near minus 20, indicating ongoing softness in the manufacturing sector [2] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, with a core CPI increase of 3.1%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August indicated a month-over-month decrease of 0.1% for final demand, with year-over-year figures moderating to 2.6% [4] - Retail sales have been robust, with August showing a 6% increase, July also at 6%, and June at 1%, while core retail sales increased by 7.1%, 5.1%, and 0.9% over the last three months [5][6] Labor Market Insights - The Federal Reserve faces challenges as inflation remains sticky, and there are concerns about a potential slowdown in the labor market, which may require more attention [7] - Initial jobless claims data has not shown significant deterioration, making it difficult to identify problems in the labor market despite some negative trends in other macroeconomic indicators [8]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China is expected to release financial statistics for September, including M2 growth, new RMB loans, and social financing scale, with M2 expected to grow by 8.5% year-on-year, down from 8.8% [1] - New RMB loans for September are anticipated to be 1.375 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous month's 590 billion yuan [1] - The expected increase in social financing scale for September is 3.45 trillion yuan, compared to 2.5668 trillion yuan in the previous month [1] Group 2 - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) is set to publish a global metal supply and demand report, which will be closely monitored for its impact on metal futures prices [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions, with attention on how the results may influence related futures prices [3] Group 4 - The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to announce September retail sales data, with a month-on-month increase forecasted at 0.4%, down from 0.6% [4] - Core retail sales for September are projected to rise by 0.3%, a decrease from the previous 0.7% [4] - A slight decline in retail sales data could moderately suppress the prices of commodities, excluding gold and silver [4] Group 5 - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will report on crude oil inventory changes for the week ending October 10, with the previous increase recorded at 3.715 million barrels [5] - An increase in crude oil inventory could hinder the rise in oil and related commodity futures prices [5] Group 6 - The U.S. Department of Commerce will release data on new housing starts and building permits for September, with new housing starts expected to total 1.31 million units, slightly up from 1.307 million units [6] - Building permits are anticipated to be 1.343 million units, an increase from the previous 1.33 million units [6] - A slight increase in new housing starts and building permits could support basic metal futures prices but may suppress gold and silver futures prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Hong Kong retail sales have stabilized recently, contributing to a 13% increase in Wharf Real Estate's stock price this year [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The decline in HIBOR is driving market sentiment, as it has absorbed the recent stability in retail sales and the anticipated profit rebound, projected to be between 2% and 9% for 2025 to 2026 [1] - Despite the short-term stabilization, long-term challenges persist, primarily due to the rebound in outbound tourism by Hong Kong residents, more convenient tax refund arrangements from the mainland, and intensified competition among high-end shopping malls [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - UBS has adjusted its earnings per share estimates for Wharf Real Estate for the years 2025 to 2027 upwards by 4% to 8% based on HIBOR assumptions [1] - The company maintains a cautious outlook, predicting that retail sales in Hong Kong are unlikely to see strong growth in the next two years, with expectations of retail sales remaining nearly flat [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised the target price for Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) to HKD 23, maintaining a "Neutral" rating, citing ongoing long-term headwinds despite recent stabilization in Hong Kong retail sales [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Wharf Real Estate's stock price has increased by 13% year-to-date, driven by a decline in HIBOR and stabilization in retail sales [1] - UBS expects a rebound in retail sales and profit growth, projecting an increase of 2% to 9% for the years 2025 to 2026 [1] Group 2: Long-term Challenges - Long-term challenges persist, primarily due to the rebound in outbound tourism from Hong Kong, more convenient tax refund arrangements in mainland China, and intensified competition among high-end shopping malls [1] - UBS believes that the recent retail sales rebound is likely to be temporary, with discretionary spending facing pressure after the National Day Golden Week [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Based on HIBOR assumptions, UBS has adjusted its earnings per share estimates for Wharf Real Estate for the years 2025 to 2027 upwards by 4% to 8% [1] - The firm maintains a cautious outlook, predicting that retail sales in Hong Kong are unlikely to see strong growth in the next two years, expecting them to remain nearly flat [1]

Core Insights - Canada's retail sales in July decreased by 0.8% month-over-month, matching the forecast of a 0.8% decline and contrasting with a previous increase of 1.5% [1] Economic Indicators - The July retail sales figure indicates a contraction in consumer spending, which may have implications for overall economic growth [1] - The previous month's growth of 1.5% suggests volatility in retail performance, highlighting potential challenges in the consumer sector [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. In the short term, institutional behavior, expectations of incremental policies, and changes in the capital market are the main driving factors. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue in August economic data, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly, with yields expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [97][98] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, and T contracts increased, while that of the TL contract decreased. The open interests of all TS, TF, T, and TL contracts increased [13][17][23][31] - **Performance of Deliverable Bonds**: The prices of some deliverable bonds changed, such as the 30 - year 210005 IB falling 0.14 and the 10 - year 220017 IB rising 0.05 [13] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales reached 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, and fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. The Sino - US economic and trade leaders held talks and reached a basic framework consensus on some issues [34] - **Overseas News**: US retail sales in August were 732.01 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The initial jobless claims were 231,000, a significant drop. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25% [10][35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds widened slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year contract main contracts widened slightly. The 10 - year and 30 - year contract inter - period spreads widened significantly, the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract inter - period spread widened [44][48][52] - **Treasury Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased. The yields of treasury bonds due in 1 - 7 years changed between - 1 and 2 basis points, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose by about 0.4 and 1 basis points to 1.80% and 2.10% respectively [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds widened slightly [73] - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits, with 1264.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.50% [77] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1708.793 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1190.265 billion yuan, and a net financing of 518.528 billion yuan [81] - **Market Sentiment** - **USD/CNY Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1128, with a cumulative depreciation of 109 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB weakened [86] - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds oscillated upward, and the VIX index increased [91] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, industrial growth, social retail, and export growth slowed down, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate rose seasonally. Social financing growth declined slightly, and credit growth was weak. The economic recovery has slowed down since July, and the manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and macro - policies need to boost domestic demand [97] - **Overseas Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased significantly, but overall employment growth slowed down. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October increased [97] - **Bond Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities [98]