金属石化 迈向黄金新时代 - 2025 年中金公司中期投资策 略会 20250630 摘要 黄金的表现与宏观经济环境密切相关。自 2022 年提出新宏观范式以来，全球 进入了高通胀、高利率、高波动的新阶段，这一变化推动了实物资产的价值上 升。2023 年 8 月，我们预测未来几年利率中枢和黄金价格中枢将持续上升， 美元未来几年面临持续贬值压力，原因包括特朗普政府的制造业回归政 策、贸易赤字缩减以及解决债务压力的需求。新兴信用品种如金银铜成 为避险选择，将进一步推动这些实物资产价值上升。各主要国家都面临 类似的债务压力，信用货币普遍存在贬值风险。 中美再平衡的实现路径包括关税、汇率和财政。关税空间收缩，财政力 度加大导致失衡加剧，汇率价格调整成为硬约束。美元贬值可通过市场 化行为实现，无需协议干预。4 月 2 号以来，美元跌幅主要发生在亚洲 时段，验证了资金在美国和亚洲之间存在再平衡。 黄金市场长期走势受美国通胀中枢和财政赤字中枢影响。看空美国通胀 和财政力度可能结束黄金牛市，反之则牛市远未结束。过去 50 年黄金 实际价格基本上由美国财政赤字解释，黄金可以抗国家信用。中国等新 兴市场国家未来还有很大的增持黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market narrative surrounding Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) is misled by short-term concerns such as high all-in sustaining costs (AISC) and disappointing production guidance, overlooking the significant internal transformations the company has undergone in the past 18 months [1][27] Strategic Transformation - Following the $16.8 billion acquisition of Newcrest, Newmont has become the world's leading gold producer, establishing four core competitive advantages: unmatched scale effects, enhanced bargaining power with suppliers, and long-term cost resilience [2][3] Asset Portfolio Revamp - The true value of acquiring Newcrest lies in the asset optimization it triggered, with Newmont divesting six non-core assets expected to yield up to $4.3 billion, thereby strengthening its balance sheet and focusing on ten core tier-one assets [3][4] Realization of Synergies - Newmont has already achieved $500 million in synergy targets ahead of schedule, with operational efficiencies expected to continue reducing costs as integration progresses [5][19] Geographic Risk Diversification - The acquisition has allowed Newmont to restructure its asset portfolio in stable jurisdictions, effectively mitigating geopolitical risks associated with mining operations [6][9] Value Convergence Effect - If gold prices remain above $3,000 per ounce, the combined advantages of procurement, asset quality, operational synergies, and geographic stability will lead to unexpected profitability and margin growth [7][10] Gold Market Dynamics - Central bank gold purchases have been a significant driver of the current gold bull market, with 244 tons bought in Q1 2025, reflecting a strategic shift towards de-dollarization amid geopolitical tensions [11][12] Supply Constraints - The gold supply side faces unprecedented bottlenecks, with insufficient exploration investment and resource nationalism increasing operational challenges, leading to a structural supply-demand gap that supports high gold prices [13][14] Cash Flow Analysis - Newmont's free cash flow (FCF) generation capability is a core indicator of its transformation, with record FCF of $1.2 billion in Q1 2025, driven by high gold prices and optimized operations [19][20] Shareholder Returns - Newmont has established a shareholder-centric capital allocation model, maintaining a stable dividend and aggressive share buybacks, which enhance shareholder value and support stock price [21][23] Valuation Analysis - Despite its strong cash flow generation capabilities, Newmont's current valuation is significantly lower than historical averages, indicating potential upside as the market begins to recognize its long-term value creation narrative [24][27]

纽约商品交易所的黄金期货多空持仓比飙升至3.7:1的历史极值，华泰资产首席经济学家王军一针见血地指出："停火协议不过是导火索，真 正绞杀多头的是过度拥挤的交易。" 此刻，全球最大黄金ETF SPDR的持仓量单日再减8.7吨，机构席位已悄然挂出3250美元的看空期权。 而 宋磊，这个00后小伙，却还在社交平台上与其他投资者互相打气，"护盘到底！" 他手机屏幕上跳出的最新动态则更添讽刺——"黄金已到绝 对底部！现在不冲更待何时？" 配图是刺眼的红色买入信号，与他账户里缩水的19.4万元，以及此前6000元的亏损形成鲜明对比。 4月22日， 他以820元/克的价格追高买入黄金，如今后悔莫及。 这并非个例。 6月27日晚8点36分，伦敦金现货价格骤然跳水至3271美元/盎司，单日暴跌超过50美元，创下近四周新低。 COMEX黄金期货同 步失守3290美元，铂金更是惨烈崩盘超过6%，跌至1329美元/盎司，深圳水贝市场的珠宝商们连夜撤下"今日铂金特惠"的广告牌。 周大福、 周生生等品牌金店足金报价应声跌破1000元心理大关，996元/克的标签无情地刺痛着每一个追高者的神经。 淘宝店主CC的40万积蓄，在黄金 ETF中两 ...

作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 中东局势缓和等因素，令近期震荡走低的金价再度下挫。 当地时间6月27日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌1.85%报3286美元/盎司，盘中 最低触及3266美元/盎司，刷新近一个月低位。 2025.06. 28 本文字数：1148，阅读时长大约2分钟 至此，国际金价已经连跌两周，近两个交易周累计下跌约5%，再度失守3300美元/盎司关口。 东证衍生品研究院宏观首席分析师徐颖分析称，上半年美国经济在关税政策的扰动下波动增加，黄金 在经历了投机炒作后，步入区间震荡阶段。中长期看，美国对外关税政策的反复、地缘政治博弈的增 加，美联储降息临近、缩表接近尾声，黄金仍然受益于不确定性以及流动性的释放。 技术面看，金价三次冲刺3400美元～3500美元的区间高点没能成功。徐颖认为，突破当前的震荡区 间还需等待更多触发因素，下一波上涨行情的启动还需等待，预计后期走势先抑后扬。 海外多重风险因素接连缓和，对金价形成短线的利空因素。永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇认为，从 中长期来看黄金价格驱动逻辑不变，即美元、美债信用走弱趋势下，金价获得支撑。随着美国关税不 确定性和赤字率上行，全球"去美 ...

俗话说，大炮一响，黄金万两。按照过往逻辑，地缘风险溢价的抬升会打击市场风险偏好，避险资金大 量涌入黄金进而推高金价。但本轮以伊冲突期间，黄金地缘政治风险溢价不升反降，与其历史上对类似 地缘政治事件的反应相比颇为异常。 中信建投证券研究认为地缘风险能否成为黄金持续上涨的催化剂，关键在于两个底层机制。 一是，政治秩序冲突引发的实质性供给约束，影响黄金的宏观因素（通胀）发生趋势变化； 二是，资金流向发生明显变化，权益和债券市场面临不同程度的资金流出压力。 回顾这场为期12天的冲突，最让人意外的或许就是大宗资产的表现了。在国际油价随着地缘局势上蹿下 跳之际，上半年"猛猛涨"的国际金价却反应平淡、不涨反跌。 对于第一点，以伊冲突更多是对石油造成影响，对黄金供给约束影响较小；另外，全球通胀预期短期仍 维持恒定，并未出现转移。 以伊冲突爆发后，伦敦现货黄金价格仅在战争初期短暂站上3450美元/盎司关口，随后便开始震荡走 低，截至6月24日，回落至3330点附近，累计下跌1.87%。 对于第二点，观察6月中旬以来全球资金流向基本维持稳定，黄金作为避险资产缺乏明显驱动。6月13日 冲突发酵当天，美股和美债均出现下跌，避险需求升 ...

# 全球市场导读刊物 25.06.24 ⽬录 Contents • ⾼盛 GS：中国宏观三要点⸺消费强劲、地产低迷、出⼝前置影响可控 ⼀、⾼盛 GS：中国宏观三要点⸺消费强劲、地产低迷、出⼝前置影响可控 1. 5⽉经济数据表现分化，但总体达标： 中国5⽉宏观活动数据好坏参半，固定资产投资增速仅为3.7%（低于预期4.0%），⼯业增加值为 5.8%（略低于预期6.0%），但社会消费品零售总额强劲增⻓6.4%，远超市场预期4.9%。其中家电 销售在政府"以旧换新"政策推动下同⽐⼤增50%。结合4⽉数据，第⼆季度GDP增速略⾼于 5.0%，⾜以⽀撑政策⾯维持现状，减轻短期进⼀步宽松压⼒。 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 ⾼盛重估未来⼏年中国城市住房新增需求，考虑到投资性购房情绪减退及棚改带来的拆迁⾼峰已 ...

实时黄金行情分析 黄金短线萎靡不振！牛市结束了吗？后市会有哪些转机？顺姐正在实时分析黄金行情，点击观看 订阅期货大宗商品趋势 +订阅 相关链接 ...

花旗预警黄金牛市终结，资金面抛压或引爆市场；高盛力挺4000美元目标，深层逻辑分歧：央行买需能 否抵消"和平红利"？风险信号： 美元空头达19年峰值，历史性轧空行情一触即发？ 相关链接 投行大战：黄金跌穿3000还是飙至4000？ ...

张尧浠：地缘局势持续加降息预期、金价高位调整仍待走强 黄金市场上周：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，但未跌破5-10周均线支撑，并且也保持着近数周震荡上行的趋势发展，且布林带偏向上延伸，基本面也缺乏持续 且强劲的利空压力，故此后市来讲，金价仍具有看涨新高的潜力。 具体走势上，金价自周初高开于3450.30美元/盎司，但随即录得当周高点3451.04美元后，则遇阻回落收跌，自高点回落近70美金，之后连续几日震荡偏弱 阴跌模式，并至周五时段录得当周低点3340.21美元，且再度触底回升，收于3368.02美元，周振幅110.83美元，相对于前周收盘价3433.74美元，收跌65.72 美元，跌幅1.91%。 影响上，周末升级的地缘局势以及持续未有缓和的表现，未能令金价高开后保持走强，而受到在金价触及8周高点后市场交易员开始锁定利润，获利了 结，以及对于当周美联储利率决议及继续推迟降息等观点预期，再加上技术阻力压制，而震荡回撤调整； 不过，由于美国公布的经济数据仍超预期的疲软，和特朗普仍呼吁降息，仍在加强后市降息预期，以及美国药品关税的即将到来，而仍有买盘支撑，使得 连续震荡走盘，并不断消耗回撤压力，最终有所止跌收线。 展望 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhou Li Fu's long-awaited IPO is set to launch on June 26, 2025, with a global offering of 46.808 million shares at a price of HKD 24.00 per share, aiming to raise approximately HKD 1.024 billion [1] Company Overview - Zhou Li Fu, established in 2004, is a well-known jewelry brand in China, primarily engaged in the design, production, and sales of jewelry through both offline and online channels [2] - As of the end of 2024, Zhou Li Fu had 4,129 stores, ranking fifth among Chinese jewelry brands, with 4,125 located in China and 4 overseas [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhou Li Fu's revenue reached RMB 5.718 billion, but the growth rate plummeted to 11% from 66% the previous year, indicating a significant slowdown [2] - The company's net profit for the year was RMB 706 million, with a net profit margin dropping from 18.5% in 2022 to 12.4% in 2024, a decline of 6.1 percentage points [2] Market Position and Challenges - Zhou Li Fu faces a differentiation dilemma, lacking a unique brand identity compared to competitors like Lao Pu Gold and Chow Tai Fook, leading to severe product homogeneity [3] - Despite rising gold prices, the jewelry industry is experiencing a "volume-price divergence," with many companies, including Zhou Li Fu, reporting declining profits [3][4] Inventory and Sales Issues - Zhou Li Fu's inventory reached RMB 2.59 billion as of April 30, 2025, posing a risk of inventory impairment if gold prices decline [4] - The total order volume for self-operated stores decreased from 122,000 in 2023 to 117,000 in 2024, with same-store sales revenue dropping from RMB 369 million to RMB 291 million [4] Franchise Model and Management Challenges - Zhou Li Fu's rapid expansion relies heavily on a franchise model, with 97.8% of its stores being franchisee-operated, which has led to quality control issues and management challenges [5][6] - In 2024, the number of closed franchise stores (674) exceeded new openings (424), indicating instability in the franchise system [5] Legal and Brand Issues - Zhou Li Fu has faced multiple legal challenges regarding trademark infringement, with 95 ongoing cases, raising concerns about its brand strategy [7] - The company's name has been criticized for being misleading and similar to established brands, which could hinder long-term growth [7] Dividend Distribution and Ownership Structure - Zhou Li Fu has distributed over RMB 944 million in dividends over two years, primarily benefiting the controlling Li family, which holds approximately 93.7% of the company's shares [8] Conclusion - While the IPO may represent a significant moment for Zhou Li Fu, underlying issues such as a fragile franchise model, brand controversies, and product homogeneity remain critical challenges [9][10]