Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed significant declines, with the main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hitting the limit down, falling by 11% to 392,650 yuan per ton [1] - The current trend for tin prices is a downward movement, with weak market performance observed [2] - Various institutions have provided insights on the future of tin prices, indicating a cautious approach due to high volatility influenced by market sentiment [2] Group 2 - GF Futures suggests that while supply-side recovery is gradually occurring, the low elasticity of the supply side and the long-term narrative of the AI arms race lead to a low bullish outlook for tin prices [2] - Donghai Futures notes a significant drop in precious metals, contributing to a clear decline in overall market sentiment, and anticipates further downward pressure on tin prices due to lack of fundamental support [2] - Wenkang Futures highlights a marginal easing in the supply-demand balance for tin ingots and a steady increase in inventory, predicting a substantial risk of short-term price correction [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment, so it's advisable to participate with caution. In the medium - to - long - term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of the supply end and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [2]. Copper - In the short term, if the CL premium reverses, COMEX copper inventory may flow back to non - US regions, alleviating supply pressure there; if it remains narrow, copper prices may fluctuate in a wide range with limited upward potential, and if it widens, copper prices may maintain a relatively strong trend. In the medium - to - long - term, the price bottom is expected to rise gradually under the constraint of capital expenditure on the supply side, but current prices are suppressing downstream demand, and price fluctuations may intensify [3]. Zinc - The weakening of the US dollar index supports zinc prices. The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, and the supply pressure of refined zinc is easing. The demand side has shown a significant recovery in the processing industry's operating rate after the price correction, and the terminal orders are stable. The global zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. Short - term prices have limited downside space, and it is recommended to focus on the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory, with the main contract supported at around 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [5]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price has risen following commodities like coking coal. In January, both supply and demand have weakened slightly, with a slight inventory build - up. It is necessary to pay attention to the production reduction situation of industrial silicon. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, with the upper limit pressured by the opening of the arbitrage window and the lower limit supported by costs [7]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price is stable, but downstream components and battery cells are still reducing production despite price increases and increased exports due to weak domestic demand and the approaching Spring Festival. The demand for polysilicon is low, and the price is under pressure. In February, there is still pressure to reduce production. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the production reduction process and downstream demand recovery [8]. Aluminum - The alumina market is affected by the overall risk - preference recovery in the commodity market and supply - contraction expectations, but the high - inventory pressure in the domestic spot market still suppresses prices. It is expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line. The aluminum market has shown a high - level breakthrough, but the domestic fundamentals are under pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, aluminum prices are expected to be strong and difficult to fall, but there is a risk of a high - level correction in the short term [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has followed the rise in aluminum prices but lacks financial attributes and has poor downstream acceptance. The cost is the main driving factor, and the fundamentals show a typical seasonal supply - and - demand weakness. It is expected that the ADC12 price will continue to oscillate in the high - level range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton in the short term [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is supported by the strong performance of the non - ferrous sector and the smelters' hoarding mentality due to the expected tight supply of raw materials. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 145,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is driven by the strong commodity sentiment and the improvement in fundamentals due to steel - mill production cuts. In the short term, it is expected to adjust in a strong - oscillation pattern, with the main contract in the range of 14,200 - 15,200 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the news from the ore end and the dynamics of steel mills [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market has shown a weak adjustment. Although the fundamentals show certain inventory - reduction resilience during the off - season, which supports prices, there may be a short - term decline adjustment. It is recommended to operate cautiously in the range of 155,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price rose 0.46% to 438,600 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin open discount dropped 100% to 0 yuan/ton [2]. - The import loss of tin increased 88.73% to - 10,909.52 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.88 [2]. Fundamental Data - In December, the import of tin ore increased 16.81% to 17,637 tons, and the production of SMM refined tin decreased 0.06% to 15,950 tons [2]. - The import of refined tin increased 29.54% to 1,548 tons, and the export increased 41.84% to 2,763 tons [2]. Inventory - SHEF inventory increased 1.79% to 9,720 tons, and social inventory increased 4.94% to 10,678 tons [2]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 2.48% to 104,185 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased 70 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [3]. - The import loss of copper decreased to - 106 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.77 [3]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and the import decreased 4.02% to 26.02 million tons [3]. Inventory - The domestic social inventory of copper decreased 2.24% to 32.28 million tons, and the SHFE inventory increased 5.82% to 22.59 million tons [3]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.20% to 25,290 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased 5 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [5]. - The import loss of zinc increased to - 2,443 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased slightly to 7.48 [5]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and the import decreased 51.94% to 0.88 million tons [5]. Inventory - The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased 1.35% to 11.72 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased 0.57% to 11 million tons [5]. Industrial Silicon Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased 33.67% to 325 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and the production in Xinjiang increased 6.46% to 25.29 million tons [7]. Inventory - The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased 0.36% to 55.40 million tons, and the warehouse - receipt inventory increased 2.89% to 6.83 million tons [7]. Polysilicon Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,500 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type silicon wafers of 210mm decreased 6.13% to 1.53 yuan/piece [8]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of polysilicon increased 0.79% to 11.55 million tons, and the import increased 77.50% to 0.19 million tons [8]. Inventory - The polysilicon inventory increased 0.91% to 33.30 million tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased 1.90% to 27.29GW [8]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.47% to 24,860 yuan/ton, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased 20 yuan/ton to - 200 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina increased 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and the production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased 3.97% to 378.10 million tons [9]. Inventory - The Chinese electrolytic - aluminum social inventory increased 5.25% to 78.20 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased 0.45% to 49.8 million tons [9]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 1.66% to 24,550 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased 10.48% to 2,719 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 6.16% to 64 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased 0.46% to 30.41 million tons [11]. Inventory - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 2.11% to 4.64 million tons, and the daily inventory in Foshan increased 0.33% to 30,343 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.30% to 148,000 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel rose 6.82% to 7,050 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of Chinese refined nickel increased 26.10% to 31,400 tons, and the import increased 84.63% to 23,394 tons [12]. Inventory - SHFE inventory increased 5.43% to 50,794 tons, and social inventory increased 4.38% to 66,294 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference decreased 58.54% to 82 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel decreased 26.72% to 131.59 million tons, and the import increased 29.32% to 14.50 million tons [14]. Inventory - The social inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel (Wuxi + Foshan) increased 0.82% to 45.77 million tons, and the SHFE warehouse - receipt inventory increased 9.90% to 4.36 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.33% to 168,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.37% to 164,500 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased 4.04% to 99,200 tons, and the demand decreased 2.50% to 130,118 tons [17]. Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased 12.23% to 56,664 tons, and the downstream inventory decreased 7.21% to 38,998 tons [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Tin**: Short - term prices are volatile due to market sentiment, and caution is advised. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain a low - buying strategy for tin prices considering supply - side low elasticity and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race [2]. - **Copper**: In the short - term, pay attention to the CL premium trend. In the medium - to - long - term, the price bottom center is expected to rise gradually, but be aware of price volatility risks [3]. - **Zinc**: The price has support from the tight domestic zinc ore supply, and there is room for restocking as demand recovers. The short - term price downside is limited, and focus on changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Expect the price to fluctuate, and pay attention to the decline in industrial silicon production and the production reduction process of enterprises. The price range is expected to be between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Polysilicon**: In February, there is still pressure to reduce production. The price is under pressure and may be supported at 48000 yuan/ton and 45000 yuan/ton. Temporarily wait and see, and focus on the production reduction situation and downstream demand recovery [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The futures price is driven by sentiment, but the high inventory in the spot market suppresses the price. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cash cost line [9]. - **Aluminum**: In the long - term, the price is likely to be strong, but in the short - term, there is a risk of a high - level correction. Long - term investors can buy on dips [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Focus on the actual flow of scrap aluminum, import window changes, and downstream pre - holiday inventory preparation [11]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The main reference range is 145000 - 155000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: In the short - term, it is expected to adjust with a strong - side fluctuation. The main reference range is 14200 - 15200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the news from the ore end and steel mill dynamics [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price may decline and adjust. The main reference range is 155000 - 170000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction and inventory changes [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.46% to 438600 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin open - discount decreased by 100% to 0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 2.48% to 104185 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.20% to 25290 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 2443 yuan/ton [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, and the futures price increased by 165 yuan/ton [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the N - type silicon wafer price decreased [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 2.47% to 24860 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 2081 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy increased, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum widened [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.30% to 148000 yuan/ton, and the futures import loss was - 266 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils was basically stable, and the price difference between futures and spot decreased [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 2.33% to 168000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Tin**: In December, tin ore imports increased by 16.81%, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.06% [2]. - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80%, and imports decreased by 4.02% [3]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24%, and the galvanizing start - up rate decreased [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both weakened slightly, and there was a slight inventory build - up [7]. - **Polysilicon**: In December, polysilicon production increased by 0.79%, and the import volume increased by 77.50% [8]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46% [11]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production increased by 26.10%, and imports increased by 84.63% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel rough steel decreased by 26.72%, and imports increased by 29.32% [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and the demand decreased by 2.50% [17]. 3.3 Inventory Changes - **Tin**: SHEF inventory increased by 1.79%, and social inventory increased by 4.94% [2]. - **Copper**: Global visible inventory has accumulated to a high level in recent years, with more than 50% of the inventory in the United States [3]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 1.35%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.57% [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Social inventory decreased by 0.36%, and warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2.89% [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.91% to 33.30 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.90% to 27.29GW [8]. - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.25%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.45% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.11% [11]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 5.43%, and social inventory increased by 4.38% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 0.82%, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 9.90% [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% in December, and the downstream inventory decreased by 7.21% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views Tin - Short - term price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment, suggesting cautious operation. - Medium - to long - term, maintain a low - buying strategy for tin prices considering supply - side low elasticity and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race [2]. Nickel - Short - term, the impact of supply - side disturbances is gradually digested. Before the results are clear, sentiment provides support but the unilateral driving force weakens. The disk is expected to oscillate strongly in a range, with the main contract referring to 140,000 - 150,000 [3]. Stainless Steel - Recently, cost support is strengthened. The social inventory shows a trend of de - stocking. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract referring to 14,000 - 15,000. Attention should be paid to news from the ore end and the improvement in demand [6]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the disk may adjust. It is expected that the price will remain in a relatively strong range. The main contract refers to 160,000 - 175,000. Prudent operation is recommended, paying attention to over - valuation and liquidity risks [9]. Industrial Silicon - Maintain the expectation of price oscillation. The main price fluctuation range may be between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in industrial silicon production and demand - side output [11]. Polysilicon - In February, polysilicon production is expected to decrease. In the weak demand background, pay attention to the production reduction process and price quotation changes of enterprises. During the cooling period, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. Copper - In the short term, the price may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to changes in CL premium and LME inventory. The main contract focuses on the support at 99,000 - 100,000 [13][14]. Zinc - The downside space of the short - term price may be limited. Pay attention to changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory. The main contract focuses on the support around 24,000 [16]. Alumina - The price is expected to continue to oscillate widely around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract referring to the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18]. Aluminum - In the long - term, the price is expected to remain in a relatively strong pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall. In the short - term, there is a risk of high - level correction. Mid - to long - term, the core strategy is to buy on dips [18]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to continue the high - level range oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.91% to 436,600 yuan/ton; import loss widened by 88.73% to - 10,909.52 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, tin ore imports increased by 16.81% to 17,637 tons; refined tin exports increased by 41.84% to 2,763 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased in December. Demand from solder enterprises was under pressure, with large enterprises having relatively stable orders and small and medium - sized enterprises facing more significant order reduction [2]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.35% to 146,100 yuan/ton; futures import profit increased by 204.00% to 338 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production in January increased by 26.10% to 31,400 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 5.43% to 50,794 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased, while demand from the stainless steel end was weak during the off - season, and demand from the ternary material end increased [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 57.69% to 205 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in January increased by 0.92% to 176.32 million tons; stainless steel net exports increased by 15.96% to 34.00 million tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply decreased due to pre - holiday production cuts by steel mills, and demand was weak [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.29% to 172,000 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 180.56% to 5,720 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99,200 tons; total inventory decreased by 12.23% to 56,664 tons [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance by salt plants, while demand maintains a certain resilience [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The main contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1.13% to 8,760 yuan/ton; the basis of East China SI4210 industrial silicon increased by 1000.00% to 90 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons; social inventory increased by 0.18% to 55.60 million tons [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Both supply and demand weakened slightly in January, with a slight inventory build - up [11]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The main contract of polysilicon decreased by 2.11% to 50,805 yuan/ton; the basis widened [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, polysilicon production increased by 0.79% to 11.55 million tons; silicon wafer production decreased by 19.26% to 43.90 GM [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: Demand improved slightly due to export rush, but silicon wafers and silicon materials were still under pressure. Production cuts are expected to increase in February [12]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.29% to 101,660 yuan/ton; the import loss decreased by 226.15 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons; domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 4.08% to 71.86 million tons [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Global visible inventory has reached a high level in recent years. Domestic downstream开工率 has recovered, but the spot market remains in a discount structure [13][14]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 1.94% to 25,240 yuan/ton; import loss decreased by 80.16 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons; Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 4.26% to 11.68 million tons [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply pressure eased, demand from the processing industry recovered significantly after the zinc price correction, and inventory had room for replenishment [16]. Alumina - **Price and Basis**: Alumina futures were strong, but the spot market was pressured by high inventory [18]. - **Fundamentals**: Industry开工率 decreased slightly, and the market - wide inventory decreased by about 34,000 tons this week [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply decreased due to enterprise maintenance, but the implicit inventory was still large, and demand did not improve fundamentally [18]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The main contract of aluminum reached a record high of 25,680 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased steadily, and the inventory inflection point had appeared and entered the accumulation cycle [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Strong expectations clashed with weak reality, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed by high prices [18]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The AD - AL spread widened to a record extreme of - 1,700 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The industry开工率 remained at a low level of about 58%, and social inventory decreased slightly to about 47,500 tons [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was under pressure, and demand was weak, with a pattern of high prices but few transactions [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the spokesperson criticized Taiwan's attempts to align with external forces for its own interests, suggesting that such actions are not credible and are seen as a farce [1] - The spokesperson, Zhang Han, responded to a question regarding Taiwan's foreign affairs department's claims about the future world order being an AI arms race and the U.S.-China competition, emphasizing that the Taiwanese authorities are trying to elevate their status through external alliances [1] - The article highlights the perception that Taiwan's diplomatic efforts, as claimed by the Taiwanese authorities, are viewed skeptically, with the spokesperson questioning the validity of their assertions about global influence [1]

上期所再次出手限制开仓。 1月27日，上海期货交易所（以下简称"上期所"）发布公告称，发现3组18名客户在锡、白银期货品种交易中涉嫌未申报实际控制关系，根据《上海期货交易 所交易规则》《上海期货交易所实际控制关系账户管理办法》的相关规定，决定对上述客户在锡、白银期货品种上采取限制开仓1个月以及限制出金的监管 措施。 事实上，尽管总体走势上扬，但白银价格波动剧烈。1月27日，全球贵金属市场隔夜上演剧烈震荡行情，现货白银一度冲高至约117美元/盎司，日内最大涨 幅达14%，但随后涨幅悉数抹平，最终仅微涨0.4%，报收约103.6美元/盎司。 贺利氏贵金属分析师警示，白银相对黄金或已过度高估，本轮涨势或接近短期顶峰，且高企价格正倒逼光伏等行业加速寻求替代材料。历史数据显示，如此 极端涨幅往往预示短期调整，本轮白银涨势已是1980年亨特兄弟逼仓以来最剧烈的一次。 广发期货认为，中长线来看，虽然供给侧逐步修复，但考虑到供应端的低弹性以及ai军备竞赛的长期叙事，对锡价保持低多思路。 数据也显示，当前贵金属市场热度偏高。文华数据显示，商品期货市场中，黄金沉淀资金1369.66亿元，白银沉淀资金985.19亿元，铜沉淀资金6 ...

ll 报 2026年1月23日 Wind. SMM. 广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读招生居瑞免责声明 已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证 表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士．版权归广发期货所有． 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。 如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 现日报 周敏波 70015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 100070 | 100060 | +10.00 | 0.01% | 元/肥 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -170 | -180 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 100310 | 99820 | +490.00 | 0.49% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1 ...

【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 上周二（13日），以25%销售额抽成为条件，美国特朗普政府正式批准英伟达对华出口H200人工智能 （AI）芯片， 但这遭到两党对华鹰派议员的强烈反对。 仅仅一周后，为抢夺先进AI芯片对华销售的审查权，美国众议院外交事务委员会于周三（21日）以压 倒性优势表决通过一项两党联合提案。该法案明确要求，参照军售审查模式，由国会对先进AI芯片出 口实施监管。 据彭博社22日报道，依据这项法案，美国政府在批准先进AI芯片出口前，必须事先通知国会；国会则 有权通过联合决议案，审查并否决针对中国、俄罗斯、伊朗及其他所谓"敌对国家"的出口许可。 此外，法案明确规定，未来至少两年内全面禁止向中国出售英伟达更先进的Blackwell芯片，同时将现 行出口管制措施正式纳入法律条文。 特朗普在白宫会晤黄仁勋 视频截图 据报道，该法案以42票赞成、2票反对在委员会获批，下一步将提交众议院全体会议表决。该法案仍需 参众两院通过并获得特朗普的签署才能生效。 目前参议院尚未出台配套法案，但部分参议员已另行提交议案，其效力或将直接禁止H200芯片对华销 售。 报道指出，本次提案是美国国会最新一次试图限制特朗普政府推动英 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - A-share market has large trading divergence, small and medium - cap indices have a supplementary decline, market sentiment cools down, and volatility converges. A - shares may enter a shock period. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] - Due to the cooling of the stock market and the influence of the stock - bond seesaw, the bond futures fluctuate and rise. The bond market trend may mainly depend on the policy strength and supply - demand situation in the first quarter, and it may remain in a shock pattern in the short term. The 10 - year bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.82% - 1.88%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies still maintain range operations, and pay attention to the positive spread of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis in the spot - futures strategy [2] - Affected by macro - geopolitical events, the weakening of assets such as the US dollar supports the strong shock of gold prices, but the domestic price is weaker than the overseas market due to the appreciation of the RMB. Hold long positions of gold above the 20 - day moving average; be cautious in participating in silver unilaterally and sell out - of - the - money options to earn volatility reduction benefits; platinum fluctuates strongly above the 20 - day moving average, and an option double - selling strategy can be adopted. Gold performs weaker than platinum and can sell out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - The A - share market has large trading divergence, small and medium - cap indices have a supplementary decline, and market sentiment cools down. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] Bond Futures - Due to the cooling of the stock market, bond futures fluctuate and rise. The bond market may remain in a shock pattern in the short term. The 10 - year bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.82% - 1.88%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies maintain range operations, and pay attention to the positive spread of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis in the spot - futures strategy [2] Precious Metals - Gold is supported by geopolitical events and maintains a strong shock, but the domestic price is weaker due to RMB appreciation. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. For silver, be cautious in unilateral participation and sell out - of - the - money options. Platinum fluctuates strongly above the 20 - day moving average, with a fluctuation range of 587 - 640 yuan, and an option double - selling strategy can be used. Gold performs weaker than platinum and can sell out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan [2] Non - Ferrous Metals and Building Materials Sector Steel and Iron Ore - Raw material prices weaken, which may drag down the steel price center. The fluctuation range of rebar is 3000 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3150 - 3350. Iron ore prices are weak, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the steel - ore ratio and long positions in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. Iron ore is in the off - season of supply, and ports are continuously accumulating inventory, with a wide - range shock in the range of 770 - 830 [2] Coal and Coke - The coal price in Shanxi origin rises more and falls less, and the Mongolian coal price falls from a high level. The coking coal futures price has over - anticipated. It is considered to be in a weak shock unilaterally, with a range of 1000 - 1150. Mainstream coke enterprises start to raise prices, while the port trade price falls. The coke futures price has over - anticipated, with a weak shock in the range of 1600 - 1750 [2] Other Non - Ferrous Metals - For aluminum oxide, the spot accumulates 7.9 tons weekly, and the futures price fluctuates and falls. The main contract runs in the range of 2600 - 2900, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices. For aluminum, the spot trading is cold, and there is a risk of emotional correction in the short term. The main contract runs in the range of 23000 - 25000, and it is recommended to lay out long positions after the correction [2] Energy and Chemical Sector Petrochemical Products - PX has a near - term weak and long - term strong supply - demand situation, with a short - term high - level shock in the range of 7000 - 7500, and a rolling low - buying strategy can be adopted. PTA has a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation, with a short - term shock in the range of 4900 - 5300, and it is recommended to buy low below 5000 and conduct a low - level positive spread for the 5 - 9 contract [2] Other Chemical Products - Ethanol has a seasonal inventory accumulation, and the near - term supply - demand expectation is weak. It is recommended to conduct a high - level reverse spread for the 5 - 9 contract and sell out - of - the - money call options. Pure benzene has improved supply - demand but is restricted by high inventory. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for BZ2603 and shrink the EB - BZ spread at high levels [2] Agricultural Products Sector Grains and Oils - Bean meal lacks market drivers and runs weakly in a shock. Palm oil is boosted by exports and tries to break through the annual - line resistance, and may try to break through 8900 [2] Livestock and Poultry Products - The price of pork belly has difficulty rising, and the futures price of live pigs is under pressure, running in a shock range. The egg price continues to adjust and runs in a shock range [2] Other Agricultural Products - At the end of the sugar stocking period, the terminal demand is lower than expected, and the price runs weakly in a shock. The cotton price continues to adjust and runs at a high level in a shock. The apple futures price stops falling and stabilizes, and it is recommended to buy put options [2]

息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。 圆锥及分析方法 井不代表广发暗 赌漏机构的立场,在任何情况下,提告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不如成所就 产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1297 2026年1月21日 | 2026年1月21日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#场 | 394900 | 389800 | 5100 | 1.31% | | | SMM 1#锡开贴水 | 200 | 200 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 395400 | 390300 | 5100 | 1.31% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -108.01 | -68.00 | -40.01 | -58.84% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 ...