每经记者｜张寿林 每经编辑｜张益铭 1月20日，人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，最新贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次 发布LPR之前有效。 东方金诚王青、李晓峰、冯琳判断，2026年一季度GDP同比增速会回升至4.7%左右，短期内货币政策将处于观察期，政策利率和LPR报价有望保持稳定。 中欧国际工商学院教授、中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长盛松成指出，央行通过结构性货币政策工具为商业银行提供低成本资金，实际上是央行向商业银 行"让利"，而非一般意义上的引导市场利率下行，两者有本质区别。 截至2025年三季度末，商业银行净息差为1.42%，维持在历史低位。金融部门需要在支持实体经济和保持自身健康性之间取得平衡。盛松成认为，这也是央 行选择调降结构性工具利率的考量之一。至于结构性工具利率下降传导至终端利率的效果如何，还主要取决于市场供求关系。货币政策常常是"有效而有 限"的，一般是间接发挥作用，其实施效果在相当程度上受市场反馈的影响，包括企业和居民部门、商业银行乃至整个金融体系的配合。 往后看，盛松成判断，随着货币政策工具箱日益丰富，央行能 ...

北京商报讯（记者 董晗萱）开年首次LPR报价出炉。1月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2026年1月贷款市场报价利 率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。两大报价均与前值保持一致。 这是两大LPR品种连续8个月保持不变。对此，市场已有预期。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，背后有两个直接原因。首先，开年以来政 策利率（7天期逆回购利率）保持稳定，意味着1月LPR报价的定价基础没有发生变化，已在很大程度上预示当月LPR报价会保持不动。另外， 近期包括1年期银行同业存单到期收益率（AAA级）在内的主要中长端市场利率保持稳定，商业银行在货币市场的融资成本变化不大；在商业 银行净息差处于历史最低点的背景下，当前报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。 在王青看来，2025年6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受出口持续偏强、以高技术制造业为代表的新质生产力领域较快发展 等推动，今年宏观经济顶住外部波动压力，顺利完成全年增长目标，下半年货币政策得以保持较强定力。 目前，社会综合融资成本处在低位。人民银行数据显示，截至2025年12月，新发放企业贷款加权平均利率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for eight consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5% [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the lack of adjustment momentum, as the central bank's policy rate, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, has remained stable [2]. - The low net interest margin for banks has resulted in a lack of incentive for banks to lower the LPR quote [2]. - The LPR serves as a key reference for loan pricing, with expectations that the average interest rates for new corporate and personal housing loans will remain around 3.1% until December 2025 [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank plans to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [3]. - Market institutions believe there is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions this year, although the necessity for immediate action is low [3]. - Recent monetary policies include a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the rate of structural monetary policy tools, indicating a reduced need for immediate interest rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Economic Forecast - A survey conducted by Securities Times indicates that nearly 59% of economists expect the next RRR cut or interest rate reduction to occur between the Lunar New Year and the end of the first quarter [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, marking eight consecutive months of stability, which aligns with market expectations due to policy rate anchoring and banks' funding cost considerations [1][4]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The 1-year LPR remains at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous period [1][3]. - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the unchanged 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which serves as a primary reference for pricing [3]. - Major market interest rates, including the 1-year interbank certificates of deposit yield, have remained stable, indicating little change in banks' funding costs [3]. Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite the LPR's stability, there is still room for monetary easing, as indicated by the PBOC's vice governor, who stated that there is potential for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [4]. - The current banking net interest margin is at a historical low, which may limit banks' motivation to lower LPR quotes [3][4]. - Market analysts have differing views on the timing of potential interest rate cuts, with some suggesting that structural rate reductions have already eased some funding costs, while others anticipate that a broader policy rate cut may occur in the second quarter of 2026 [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Context and Implications - The economic environment is showing signs of recovery, supported by resilient exports and new policy initiatives, which may reduce the urgency for comprehensive interest rate cuts in the short term [5]. - However, as uncertainties in external trade increase, there is an expectation that the PBOC may open the window for rate cuts to counter potential downward pressures and stimulate domestic demand [5]. - A targeted reduction in the 5-year LPR may be implemented to stabilize the real estate market and significantly lower residential mortgage rates, which is seen as a crucial step to improve market expectations [5].

港股點評 2026年1月20日9:30 a.m 恒指跌 281 點，滬指升 12 點，標普 500 跌 4 點 朗普要脅就格陵蘭問題向北約 8 國加徵關稅，美股道指期貨跌約 400 點。港股 隨外圍下跌。恒指低開 203 點，初段跌 311 點低見 26,533 點後反覆，曾高見 26,715 點跌 129 點，全日跌 281 點或 1.05%，收 26,563 點；國指跌 86 點或 0.9%， 收 9,134 點；恒生科指跌 72 點或 1.2%，收 5,749 點。大市全日成交總額 2,256.89 億元。 人民銀行 19 日起，下調再貸款及再貼現利率 0.25 個百分點，並下調各類結構 性貨幣政策工具利率 0.25 個百分點。人民銀行在公開市場開展 1,583 億元七天 期逆回購操作，操作利率持平於 1.4%。有 861 億元逆回購到期，單日淨投放 722 億元。人民幣兌美元中間價按日上調 27 點，報 7.0051 兌一美元，創逾兩年半 高。A 股三大指數低開後走勢分化。滬深兩市成交縮減至約 2.7 萬億元。滬綜指 全日升 12 點或 0.3%，報 4,114 點，成交 1.19 萬億元。深成指全日 ...

Group 1 - The monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China will be released on January 19, 2025, at 9:30 AM, by the National Bureau of Statistics, which is expected to impact related commodity futures prices [1] - A press conference on the national economic operation for 2025 will be held on January 19, 2025, at 10:00 AM, where the National Bureau of Statistics will present the economic data, including a projected GDP growth of 4.5% for Q4 2025, down from 4.8% [2] - The expected GDP growth for the entire year of 2025 is 5.1%, with a forecasted retail sales growth of 1.2% in December 2025, slightly down from 1.3% [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China will announce the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on January 20, 2025, with expectations of the 1-year LPR remaining at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%, indicating a neutral impact on commodity futures and stock index futures if unchanged [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its monthly oil market report on January 21, 2025, which is anticipated to influence oil and related commodity futures prices [3] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Commerce will publish the final GDP for Q3 2025 on January 22, 2025, with an expected annualized quarterly growth rate of 4.3%, consistent with the initial estimate [4] - The U.S. Department of Labor will report the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 12, 2025, with an expectation of 200,000 claims, slightly up from 198,000, which may suppress industrial commodity prices excluding precious metals if the data exceeds expectations [5] Group 4 - The EIA will announce the weekly change in crude oil inventories for the week ending January 16, 2025, on January 23, 2025, with a previous increase of 3.391 million barrels, and further increases may hinder oil and related commodity prices [6] - The Eurozone's consumer confidence index for January is expected to be -12.5, an improvement from -13.1, with the announcement scheduled for January 23, 2025 [7] Group 5 - The U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for January is expected to be 52.0, slightly up from 51.8, with the announcement on January 23, 2025, which may support industrial commodity prices if the data exceeds expectations [8] - The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release important production material market prices for mid-January on January 24, 2025, covering nine categories and 50 products, which may influence market dynamics [8]

Economic Data Release - Key economic data for China, including GDP growth rate, total GDP for 2025, December retail sales, and industrial output, will be released on January 19 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will hold a press conference on January 19 to discuss the economic performance of 2025 [1] Market Regulations - The minimum margin requirement for financing purchases of securities on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges will be increased from 80% to 100%, effective January 19 [1] Upcoming Events - The World Economic Forum will take place from January 19 to 23 in Davos, Switzerland [1] - The third Beijing Commercial Aerospace Industry High-Quality Development Conference will be held from January 23 to 25 [1] Corporate Earnings - Several major U.S. companies, including Netflix, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, and 3M, are set to announce their earnings next week [1] Stock Market Activity - Three new stocks will be issued next week: Zhenstone Co. on the Shanghai main board, Nongda Technology on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and Shiemeng Co. on the Shenzhen main board [1] - A total of 39 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, amounting to 3.447 billion shares with a total market value of 46.499 billion yuan based on the latest closing price [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the monetary policy in the first quarter will focus on reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and structural interest rate reductions to support economic growth and liquidity [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The fiscal policy will be proactive, with monetary policy actively coordinating to support it, including a potential 50 basis points (BP) RRR cut, which could release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [1] - Structural interest rate cuts are seen as a more effective approach, with the central bank likely to target specific monetary policy tools to lower rates in key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and financing for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - A comprehensive interest rate cut will depend on external and internal stability, with the potential for 1-2 rate cuts throughout the year, totaling a reduction of 10-20 BP, which would influence the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and subsequently affect loan and deposit rates [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The economic indicators released in November have put some pressure on the upside of A-shares, but the positive tone set by the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference has injected confidence into the market, providing strong support for the bottom of A-shares. The market is currently in a macro data vacuum period, and the impact of the external environment on A-shares has increased. The recent expectation of a dovish stance from the new Fed chair has weakened the US dollar, and the continuous strengthening of the RMB exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in January 2026 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts all increased. For example, the latest price of the IF main contract (2603) was 4610.6, up 14.8; the latest price of the IH main contract (2603) was 3034.0, up 8.2; the latest price of the IC main contract (2603) was 7320.6, up 70.4; the latest price of the IM main contract (2603) was 7419.0, up 85.4 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the IF - IH current month contract spread was 1599.2, up 6.8; the IC - IF current month contract spread was 2766.0, up 59.0 [2] - **Futures Holdings**: The net positions of the top 20 in the futures market changed. The net position of the top 20 in the IF was -27,710.00, down 147.0; the net position of the top 20 in the IH was -16,523.00, up 212.0; the net position of the top 20 in the IC was -25,254.00, down 472.0; the net position of the top 20 in the IM was -39,737.00, up 403.0 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased. The CSI 300 was 4642.54, up 8.5; the SSE 50 was 3,032.8, up 7.7; the CSI 500 was 7,410.7, up 58.7; the CSI 1000 was 7,579.4, up 73.0 [2] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM also changed. The basis of the IF main contract was -31.9, up 7.1; the basis of the IH main contract was 1.2, down 0.7; the basis of the IC main contract was -90.1, up 21.5; the basis of the IM main contract was -160.4, up 18.4 [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Margin Trading Balance**: The A-share trading volume was 19,439.18 billion yuan, up 466.76 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 25,416.83 billion yuan, up 101.20 billion yuan [2] - **Northbound Trading and Repurchase**: The total northbound trading volume was 1671.78 billion yuan, down 132.60 billion yuan; the repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume) was -883.0 billion yuan, up 1771.0 billion yuan [2] - **Main Funds and MLF**: The main funds were +53.35 billion yuan yesterday and -235.59 billion yuan today; the MLF (renewal volume, net investment) was 0 billion yuan, down 3000 billion yuan [2] - **Stock Rise Ratio and Shibor**: The ratio of rising stocks was 69.05%, down 6.54%; the Shibor was 1.262%, down 0.005% [2] - **Option Prices and Volatility**: The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2601) was 58.00, up 1.40; the implied volatility of the IO at - the - money call option was 14.41%, down 0.63%; the closing price of the IO at - the - money put option (2601) was 70.40, down 12.80; the implied volatility of the IO at - the - money put option was 14.41%, down 0.64% [2] - **Volatility and PCR**: The 20 - day volatility of the CSI 300 index was 11.82%, down 0.02%; the trading volume PCR was 50.06%, down 4.98%; the position PCR was 69.06%, up 1.08% [2] 3.4 Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The scores of all A - shares, technical indicators, and capital indicators in the Wind market strength and weakness analysis all decreased. All A - shares were 6.80, down 0.50; the technical aspect was 6.90, down 0.60; the capital aspect was 6.80, down 0.30 [2] 3.5 Industry News - **LPR Announcement**: On December 22, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (unchanged from the previous time), and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (unchanged from the previous time) [2] - **Trump's Statement**: Trump hopes that the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and the market are performing well, rather than "killing the market" due to inflation concerns [2] - **A - share Market Performance**: A - share major indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.3%. Small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly rebounded, and nearly 3800 stocks rose. The national defense and military industry sector strengthened significantly, while the comprehensive sector declined significantly [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - From December 24 - 25, the US, Europe, Hong Kong and other places were closed for Christmas. On December 27 at 9:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for November will be released [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The trends are described as high - level fluctuations for iron ore, wide - range oscillations for rebar and hot - rolled coil, wide - range oscillations due to market information disturbances for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, repeated oscillations for coke and coking coal, and low - level oscillations for logs [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 779.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase. The previous day's position was 553,717 lots, a decrease of 317 lots. Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) dropped 3.0 yuan/ton to 869.0 yuan/ton, PB fines (61.5%) dropped 3.0 yuan/ton to 787.0 yuan/ton, etc. The basis for different varieties decreased [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 12 - month loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. There was no change from the previous month [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: For rebar RB2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,136 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase. For hot - rolled coil HC2605, the closing price was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. Spot prices in most regions remained unchanged [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data from SteelUnion on December 18, rebar production increased by 2.90 thousand tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 16.80 thousand tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 8.25 thousand tons. Total inventory decreased, and apparent demand for rebar increased while that for hot - rolled coil decreased [9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: In futures, the prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had varying degrees of increase. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese and related raw materials are provided, and the price differences between futures and spot, near - and far - month contracts, and cross - varieties also changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 24, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported. Some silicon - iron furnaces were shut down and restarted, and some silicon - manganese furnaces were newly ignited. The production of silicon - manganese in some northern regions decreased, and the production of silicon - iron in Qinghai decreased [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The previous day's futures closing price of coking coal JM2605 was 1,132 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton with a 0.6% increase, and that of coke J2605 was 1,746 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton with a 0.3% increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions remained unchanged, while some prices changed [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 12 - month loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. There was no change from the previous month [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices of different contracts of logs had small increases, while trading volumes decreased significantly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with only a few showing small changes [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 12 - month loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. There was no change from the previous month [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22].