这一周，楼市又迎来了一个振奋人心的消息。 继7月30日中共中央政治局会议后，"房地产"再次被提及，释放了积极信号，进一步明确了"止跌回稳"依然是房地产政策目标，有利于稳定市场预期。同 时，降息概率不断攀升，也有一定程度上利于房产市场。 房东税与一线城市的五折租房，LPR按兵不动，在A股高涨的时刻，楼市还有什么可能性？ @第一财经、@中国新闻周刊，@抱朴财经、 @伍戈经济笔记如何看待？ LPR连续3个月 "按兵不动" 还有多大调降空间？ @第一财经：LPR连续3个月维持不变。在此背景下，市场对后续LPR能否进一步调降颇为关注。在温彬看来，尽管货币政策延续"适度宽松"基调，但目前央 行正处于几大目标的相对"舒适区"，货币政策没有主动宽松的动力，但也不会明显收紧，整体相机抉择。 结合近期数据看，7月以来，多项指标显示实体经济修复出现一定波折，社零增速有所回落，地产投资仍在承压，信贷需求疲软，外需面临的不确定性风险 尚未完全出清，一定程度上意味着宏观政策保持加码的必要性仍在。 温彬认为，下半年为稳信用、促内需、强协同、保持政策连续性稳定性，货币政策仍将保持支持性立场。但他同时表示，考虑到两项财政贴息政策有效降低 实体 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On August 21, the RB2510 contract decreased with reduced positions. Under the background of weak demand in the off - season, downstream buyers mainly purchase on - demand. The weekly output of rebar continues to decline, and inventory continues to increase due to the impact of high - temperature and rainy weather on demand. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebound at a low level. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - RB main contract closing price is 3,121.00 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; position volume is 1,458,111 lots, down 65,281 lots; the net position of the top 20 in RB contracts is - 102,201 lots, down 15,883 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread is - 79 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 137,310 tons, up 9,965 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 254 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,330.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,415 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it is 3,310.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Tianjin (theoretical weight), it is 3,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The RB main contract basis is 209.00 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 140.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore in Qingdao Port is 771.00 yuan/wet ton, up 9.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price) is 1,535.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 3,020.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore in 45 ports is 138.1927 million tons, up 1.07 million tons; the inventory of coke in sample coking plants is 39.05 million tons, down 53,100 tons; the inventory of coke in sample steel mills is 609.78 million tons, down 95,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 112.52 million tons, down 28,400 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.24%, up 0.17%. The output of rebar in sample steel mills is 2.1465 million tons, down 58,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar in sample steel mills is 47.05%, down 1.28%. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills is 1.7453 million tons, up 22,700 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 4.3251 million tons, up 175,800 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 71.88%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output is 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the monthly output of rebar in China is 16.58 million tons, up 1.4 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 939,000 tons, up 18,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is 1.60%, down 1.20%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment is - 12.00%, down 0.80; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 3.20%, down 1.40. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 638.731 million square meters, down 54.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, down 48.42 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale is 40.536 million square meters, up 2.85 million square meters [2] Industry News - On August 21st, Mysteel reported that the actual weekly output of rebar was 2.1465 million tons, down 58,000 tons; the inventory in steel mills was 1.7453 million tons, up 22,700 tons; the social inventory was 4.3251 million tons, up 175,800 tons; the total inventory was 6.0704 million tons, up 198,500 tons; the apparent demand was 1.948 million tons, up 48,600 tons. This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.2%, up 1.5%. The daily output of raw coal was 1.912 million tons, up 33,000 tons; the inventory of raw coal was 4.716 million tons, up 15,000 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 771,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the inventory of clean coal was 2.756 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The fundamentals of the mining end show an increase in overseas mine supply, and the TC spot index has significantly rebounded due to traders' shipments. On the supply side, due to the increase in copper ore supply and the relatively firm operation of the spot, smelters are more enthusiastic about production, and domestic supply has increased. On the demand side, the impact of the consumption off - season has weakened, and there is a slight improvement in consumption during the transition from the off - season to the peak season. Downstream inquiries have become more active, with some advance stocking demand emerging, and demand expectations are warming. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with inventories remaining at a medium - low level, and industry expectations are improving. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.13, a decrease of 0.1029 compared to the previous period. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,692.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 20 yuan/ton, with no change. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 128,034 lots, a decrease of 7,831 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 506 lots, a decrease of 5,699 lots. The LME copper inventory is 156,350 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 10,750 tons, a decrease of 500 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,361 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons; the warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 25,157 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 78,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 78,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 57 dollars/ton, with no change; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 52.50 dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of the CU main contract is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 90.75 dollars/ton, an increase of 6.10 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 37.68 dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.38 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,080 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 69,780 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, with no change; the processing fee for crude copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, with no change. The monthly output of refined copper is 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons. The monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons. The cumulative value of completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 291.066 billion yuan, an increase of 87.08 billion yuan. The cumulative value of completed investment in real estate development is 5,357.977 billion yuan, an increase of 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, an increase of 183,435,300 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 6.89%, a decrease of 0.19%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.52%, with no change. The implied volatility of at - the - money options is 9.2%, an increase of 0.0051. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.13, a decrease of 0.1029 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that many participants believed that the current interest rate was not far from the neutral level, and most officials thought it appropriate to keep the interest rate unchanged. China's new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The Fed's July meeting minutes also showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, and there were differences among officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation. President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of maintaining political stability, social stability, ethnic unity, and religious harmony in Tibet and promoting major projects such as the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of banks, including Jiangsu Bank and various village and city commercial banks, is to lower deposit interest rates in response to intense industry competition and declining loan rates, which is putting pressure on net interest margins [1][3][4]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Jiangsu Bank has reduced its three-year fixed deposit rate from 1.85% to 1.75%, a decrease of 10 basis points [1][3]. - Several small and medium-sized banks have also announced adjustments to their deposit rates, with some rates dropping by 10 to 20 basis points [3]. - The current deposit rates for Shengjing Bank are 1.4% for six months, 1.5% for one year, and 1.95% for three years, indicating a potential for future reductions [3]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin Pressure - The banking industry's net interest margin is under significant pressure, with commercial banks reporting a net interest margin of 1.42% in Q2 2025, down 0.01 percentage points from Q1 [4]. - Large commercial banks and joint-stock banks have seen a decline in their net interest margins, while city and rural commercial banks have maintained their margins [4]. - The latest one-year and five-year LPR rates remain unchanged, but there is speculation about potential downward adjustments in the future to stimulate demand and stabilize the real estate market [4]. Group 3: Liability Management Strategies - Banks are focusing on liability management and stabilizing net interest margins, with examples like Changshu Bank actively optimizing their deposit structure and controlling high-cost long-term deposits [5]. - In May, the six major state-owned banks collectively announced reductions in RMB deposit rates, with one-year and two-year rates down by 15 basis points and three-year and five-year rates down by 25 basis points [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, reflecting a cautious approach amid calls for market stimulus, influenced by global capital flows and the Federal Reserve's policies [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Not Lowering Interest Rates - The current net interest margin for commercial banks has compressed to a historical low of 1.42%, indicating that banks earn only 1.42 yuan for every 100 yuan loaned, which poses systemic risks if LPR is lowered [3]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is a significant constraint, with a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, yet the Fed has maintained its rate at 4.25%-4.5%, leading to a 274 basis point inversion in the 10-year treasury yield between China and the U.S. [5][6]. - Economic fundamentals provide implicit support, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in the first half of the year and a weighted average loan interest rate dropping to a historical low of 3.2%, suggesting that further rate cuts may not be necessary [7]. Group 2: Impact of Global Capital Flows - The inverted interest rate differential of 274 basis points incentivizes foreign capital to withdraw from Chinese bonds, resulting in a net sell-off of 68 billion yuan in July, which increases financing costs for real estate companies [11]. - Currency fluctuations linked to LPR adjustments can indirectly raise mortgage costs for consumers, as a depreciation of the yuan can increase the hidden costs of purchasing property [13]. - The dynamics of LPR stability and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts illustrate the complex interplay of global interest rates, requiring the industry to navigate external pressures while stimulating domestic demand [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools such as the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 21, 2025. It anticipates that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while some commodity futures like gold, silver, and others will also have specific trends including strong oscillation, wide - range oscillation, or weak oscillation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - Stock index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4300 and 4330 points and support levels at 4270 and 4244 points [2]. - Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures (T2509, TL2509) are likely to have a weak and wide - range oscillation, with T2509 expected to test support levels at 109.95 and 107.91 yuan and resistance levels at 108.12 and 108.19 yuan [2]. - Gold (AU2510) and silver (AG2510) futures are predicted to have a relatively strong oscillation. AU2510 will attack resistance levels at 777.3 and 779.5 yuan/gram, with support levels at 775.5 and 773.3 yuan/gram [2]. - Copper (CU2510) futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 78400 and 78200 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78800 and 79000 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina (AO2601), industrial silicon (SI2511), polycrystalline silicon (PS2511), and other futures have their own expected trends and support/resistance levels [3]. Macro News and Trading Tips - China has a series of policy - related news, such as the promotion of major projects in Tibet, the support for the biomedical industry, and the regulation of PPP projects [7][8]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes show that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with differences in views on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs [9]. - The US federal budget deficit is expected to reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, higher than previous forecasts [9]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On August 20, 2025, major stock index futures contracts (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) showed a trend of opening slightly lower, then rising after a decline. For example, IF2509 closed at 4270.0 points, up 1.16% [13]. - The A - share market showed a strong rebound in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new ten - year high. The securities sector has performed well since August, and the scale of securities ETFs has increased significantly [15][16]. - For August 2025, different stock index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as IF having a relatively strong and wide - range oscillation [18]. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 20, 2025, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts (T2509, TL2509) opened slightly higher, then declined after a rebound. T2509 closed at 107.855 yuan, down 0.18% [34]. - The central bank conducted 6160 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 20, with a net investment of 4975 billion yuan [35]. - The LPR remained stable in August, in line with market expectations [36]. Commodity Futures - Gold (AU2510) futures closed at 772.68 yuan/gram on August 20, 2025, down 0.35%. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in August and a relatively strong oscillation on August 21 [42]. - Silver (AG2510) futures closed at 9042 yuan/kg on August 20, 2025, down 1.86%. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in August and a relatively strong oscillation on August 21 [48]. - Other commodity futures such as copper, alumina, and industrial silicon also have their own trends on August 20 and expected trends for August and August 21 [51][56][59].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year remains at 3.0% and for 5 years and above at 3.5%, unchanged for three consecutive months since a decline in May [1] - Experts indicate that the macroeconomic environment has stabilized in the first half of the year, reducing the necessity for further LPR adjustments in the short term [1] - Current loan rates for enterprises and individuals are at low levels, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, both down by about 45 basis points and 30 basis points year-on-year respectively [1] Group 2 - The net interest margin for commercial banks in the first half of the year is reported at 1.42%, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the first quarter, indicating limited motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [2] - Experts believe there is still potential for LPR to decrease further, especially in the context of boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [2] - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates again in September, it could create a more favorable external environment for adjustments in China's monetary policy, with expectations of a potential 10 basis points reduction in LPR by the end of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current low levels of both corporate and personal loan rates indicate that lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is not an urgent priority, as the marginal effect of interest rate cuts is diminishing and is not the key factor for stabilizing growth and promoting consumption [1][4]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR has remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5% as of August 20 [1][2]. - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates, particularly the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which serves as the new pricing anchor for the LPR [3][4]. - The lack of motivation for banks to lower the LPR is due to the historical low net interest margins, which stood at 1.42% in the first half of the year, reflecting a slight decline from the previous quarter [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy framework has shifted towards "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy," indicating a low probability of further short-term easing measures [5][6]. - Despite the continuation of a supportive monetary policy stance, there is no immediate impetus for active easing, as the central bank is in a relatively comfortable position regarding its multiple objectives [6]. - The necessity for macroeconomic policy adjustments remains, as indicators show some setbacks in the recovery of the real economy, including a decline in retail sales growth and ongoing pressure in real estate investment [7]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Future adjustments to the LPR may depend on external factors, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could create a more accommodating environment for domestic monetary policy [7]. - There is a possibility of further downward adjustments to the LPR, particularly for the 5-year and above rates, to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's monetary policy, particularly focusing on the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and its implications for the banking sector and the economy. It highlights the stability of LPR rates and the factors influencing future monetary policy decisions. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and LPR - As of August 20, 2025, the 1-year LPR is 3.0% and the 5-year LPR is 3.5%, remaining unchanged for three consecutive months since a 10 basis point reduction in May [2] - The stability of LPR is attributed to several factors, including the decline in commercial banks' net interest margin to 1.42% and the central bank's emphasis on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy [3] Economic Indicators and Trends - China's GDP growth for the first half of the year is reported at 5.3%, indicating manageable pressure to meet annual growth targets [3] - Despite a stable monetary policy, there are signs of economic recovery challenges, such as a slowdown in retail sales growth and ongoing pressures in real estate investment [3] Future Monetary Policy Directions - The central bank aims to enhance the interest rate adjustment framework and improve the transmission mechanism of market interest rates, focusing on reducing banks' funding costs [6] - New corporate loan rates are approximately 3.2%, and personal housing loan rates are around 3.1%, both showing significant declines compared to the previous year [6] Structural Policy Measures - The article emphasizes that lowering LPR is not an immediate priority, as financing costs for both enterprises and residents have already decreased significantly [6][7] - Future efforts to reduce overall financing costs may focus on non-interest expenses, such as collateral and intermediary service fees [7] Support for Key Sectors - The central bank's report indicates a need to optimize the structure of financial resource allocation, directing more funds towards technology innovation, advanced manufacturing, and small and micro enterprises [10] - The focus on supporting consumption and technology sectors is expected to continue, with structural monetary policy tools playing a significant role [11]

国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟对中新社记者表示，自5月8日以来央行政策利率(公开市场7 天期逆回购操作利率)并未调整，本次LPR报价维持不变符合市场预期。央行在5月加大逆周期调节力度 出台实施的一揽子金融支持举措，其传导渠道和成效影响也需时观察。 王青认为，受多重因素影响，7月宏观经济数据波动下行，接下来外需有可能放缓。未来在大力提振内 需、采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势过程中，政策利率及LPR报价有下调空间。该机构预 计，四季度初前后央行有可能实施新一轮降息降准，并带动两个期限品种的LPR报价跟进下调。 他指出，最新的宏观数据和信贷数据显示，企业部门和居民部门的信贷需求较为疲弱。8月份LPR"按兵 不动"，可以更好地配合后续推出的各项政策措施，更好地处理支持实体经济与保持银行体系自身健康 性的关系，也可以留够政策空间以推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 (责任编辑：王擎宇) 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心20日公布最新一期贷款市场报价利率(LPR)：1年期LPR为 3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。两个期限品种的LPR均连续三个月保持不变。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，LPR报价连续三 ...