唐翠婷认为，今年我国前三季度实际GDP累计同比增长为5.2%，为实现全年5%的增长目标奠定了坚实 基础，显示出当前我国经济运行具备较强韧性。通胀层面，价格数据呈现边际回升迹象，其中PPI同比 降幅连续三个月收窄，核心CPI同比增速连续六个月回升，CPI同比增速连续两个月边际改善，"反内 卷"政策的积极效应逐步显现，LPR保持稳定的合理性进一步提升。 展望后市，唐翠婷预计，临近年末且我国经济韧性仍存，年内再次降息的概率较低，但随着国内增长动 能边际放缓、外部约束逐步减弱，2026年LPR仍有下降空间。后续，需重点关注11月宏观经济数据、12 月美联储议息会议及年末中央经济工作会议等关键节点。若经济稳增长压力持续，叠加外部约束放松， LPR下行概率将显著提升。 建信期货宏观研究员冯泽仁告诉记者，从政策背景来看，央行发布的三季度货币政策执行报告虽没改 变"稳健宽松"的总基调，但特别强调了"做好逆周期和跨周期调节"。这一表述暗示货币政策重心从单纯 的总量宽松转向结构性发力，兼顾短期稳增长与中长期防风险。因此，年底前的货币政策工作重心将是 加快5000亿元寄存限额等准财政政策的落地，托底年内经济。2026年是"十五五" ...

据财政部网站消息，为发挥政府采购示范引领作用，加强政府采购需求管理和标准化建设，支持新能源 汽车推广应用，财政部会同工业和信息化部研究起草了《新能源汽车政府采购需求标准（征求意见 稿）》，本标准适用于新能源汽车政府采购项目，供采购人参考使用。新能源汽车是指纯电动汽车、插 电式混合动力（含增程式）汽车、燃料电池（氢能）汽车。 LPR连续6个月保持不变 2025年11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版LPR报价：1年期品种报3.0%， 上月为3.0%；5年期以上品种报3.5%，上月为3.5%。自今年5月降息后，LPR已连续6个月保持不变。 《新能源汽车政府采购需求标准（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见 宏观要闻 商务部回应二手车出口如何监管 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed down collectively, with small - and medium - cap stocks weaker than large - cap blue - chips. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.12%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined slightly, and over 3800 stocks fell. The economic fundamentals in October showed a significant decline in domestic imports and exports, fixed investment, social retail, and industrial added value above designated size. The fixed investment declined for 7 consecutive months, and social retail declined for 5 consecutive months. The real estate market continued to decline rapidly. The M1 - M2 scissors gap ended its 5 - month upward trend. The 11 - month LPR remained unchanged for the 6th consecutive month, indicating a prudent monetary policy and a low possibility of significant reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. In the current macro - data, performance, and policy vacuum period, the market is expected to show a random walk, and stock index futures will remain volatile [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Price and Spread - IF main contract (2512) was at 4539.2, down 31.6; IF sub - main contract (2511) was at 4558.0, down 28.8. IH main contract (2512) was at 3002.6, down 14.8; IH sub - main contract (2511) was at 3008.6, down 14.8. IC main contract (2512) was at 7000.0, down 59.6; IC sub - main contract (2511) was at 7063.4, down 63.0. IM main contract (2512) was at 7263.6, down 35.2; IM sub - main contract (2511) was at 7347.6, down 41.6. The IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1549.4, down 16.0; the IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2505.4, down 27.8. The IM - IC current - month contract spread was 284.2, up 10.4; the IC - IH current - month contract spread was 4054.8, down 43.8. The IM - IF current - month contract spread was 2789.6, down 17.4; the IM - IH current - month contract spread was 4339.0, down 33.4 [2] 3.2 Futures Seasonal Spread - IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 51.8, down 0.6; IF next - quarter minus current - month was - 97, down 2.6. IH current - quarter minus current - month was - 13.0, down 1.4; IH next - quarter minus current - month was - 23.4, down 1.6. IC current - quarter minus current - month was - 242.0, down 0.8; IC next - quarter minus current - month was - 448.4, up 4.2. IM current - quarter minus current - month was - 312.4, up 9.2; IM next - quarter minus current - month was - 540.6, up 11.2 [2] 3.3 Futures Net Positions of Top 20 Holders - IF top 20 net positions were - 22,242.00, down 2488.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 13,615.00, down 598.0. IC top 20 net positions were - 24,823.00, up 1777.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 34,271.00, up 1773.0 [2] 3.4 Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of CSI 300 was 4564.95, down 23.3; the IF main contract basis was - 25.8, down 2.7. The spot price of SSE 50 was 3008.3, down 12.1; the IH main contract basis was - 5.7, up 3.7. The spot price of CSI 500 was 7062.0, down 60.8; the IC main contract basis was - 61.9, up 6.0. The spot price of CSI 1000 was 7340.4, down 46.8; the IM main contract basis was - 76.8, up 12.2 [2] 3.5 Market Sentiment Indicators - A - share trading volume was 17,226.35 billion yuan, down 200.31 billion yuan. Margin trading balance was 24,979.40 billion yuan, down 47.70 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume was 1912.86 billion yuan, down 268.87 billion yuan. Reverse repurchase had a maturity of - 1900.0 billion yuan and an operation volume of + 3000.0 billion yuan. Main funds were - 513.07 billion yuan, down 592.44 billion yuan. The proportion of rising stocks was 22.66%, up 0.69%. Shibor was 1.364%, down 0.056%. IO at - the - money call option closing price was 25.00, down 16.40; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility was 15.55%, up 1.19%. IO at - the - money put option closing price was 12.60, up 0.60; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility was 15.55%, up 1.06%. CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility was 14.42%, up 0.06%. Volume PCR was 60.45%, down 11.30. Position PCR was 78.46%, down 1.21. The Wind market strength of all A - shares was 3.40, up 0.10; the technical aspect was 2.70, up 0.60. The capital aspect was 4.20, down 0.30 [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed serious differences among policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials thought it "might be appropriate" to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2025, while some officials said another rate cut in December "was likely appropriate" if the economy performed as expected. There was almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance - sheet reduction. Some were worried about the disorderly decline of the stock market. The People's Bank of China announced on November 20 that the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (unchanged from the previous time), and the over - 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (unchanged from the previous time) [2] 3.7 Key Data to Focus On - At 21:30 on November 20, pay attention to the US September non - farm payroll data, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3]

2025.11. 20 本文字数：913，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 11月，两个期限品种的LPR（贷款市场报价利率）报价保持不变，符合市场预期，这也是LPR连续6 个月保持不变。 11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，当日LPR为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年 期以上LPR为3.5%。 银行息差缩窄压力仍然不小，当前报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。三季度末商业银行净 息差为1.42%，尽管与二季度末持平，但较去年四季度末下降了10个基点。 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，综合融资成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。近年来企业和居民 融资成本低位下行，说明货币条件比较宽松、资金供给比较充裕。在这种情况下，引导LPR下降并 非当务之急。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来 出口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快发展等推动，宏观经济走势稳中偏强，逆周期调节需求相应下 降，货币政策保持较强定力。 但受内外部多重因素影响，近期经济增长动能有所回落，其中，10月国内投资、消费、工业生产等 宏观数据下行势头引发关注，出口增速由正 ...

新华财经北京11月20日电 债市周四（20日）偏强整理，国债期货主力多数收涨，银行间现券收益率表 现分化，长券偏弱、中短券略暖；公开市场单日净投放1100亿元，短端资金利率普遍回落。 机构认为，缴税影响仍是短期性因素，在央行灵活呵护之下，资金面还会维持稳中偏松大局，至月底前 市场流动性料重回均衡偏松状态。 【行情跟踪】 进出口行1.2521年、3年期金融债中标收益率分别为1.3836%、1.5434%，全场倍数分别为2.28、7.28，边 际倍数分别为1、1。 国开行1年、5年、10年期金融债中标收益率分别为1.4699%、1.7101%、1.8961%，全场倍数分别为 2.75、2.86、3.25，边际倍数分别为1、27.11、22.33。 【资金面】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约跌0.21%报115.87，10年期主力合约涨0.06%报108.485，5年期 主力合约涨0.06%报105.935，2年期主力合约持平于102.462。 银行间主要利率债表现分化，长券偏弱，中短券略暖。30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率上行 0.95BP报2.1555%，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率上 ...

【大河财立方 记者 杨萨】11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年11月贷 款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之 前有效。自今年5月下调后，LPR报价已连续6个月保持不变。 王青表示，6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来出口超预期、国内新质生产 力领域较快发展等推动，宏观经济走势稳中偏强，逆周期调节需求相应下降，货币政策保持较强定力。 关于下阶段的货币政策思路，央行公布《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》中提到，进一步完善 利率调控框架，强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作 用，加强利率政策执行和监督，降低银行负债成本，推动社会综合融资成本下降。 王青表示，往后看，受内外部多重因素影响，近期经济增长动能有所回落，其中，10月国内投资、消 费、工业生产等宏观数据下行势头引发关注，出口增速由正转负。着眼于稳定今年四季度和明年一季度 经济运行，稳增长政策有望结束观察期，进入发力阶段。预计在财政及准财政政策推出"两个5000亿″措 施之后，年底前货币 ...

"从LPR报价机制看，作为LPR定价基础的7天期逆回购操作利率为1.40%，并未发生变化，因此LPR较 难下降。"招联金融首席研究员董希淼对《华夏时报》记者表示，从银行方面看，随着持续向实体经济 减费让利，银行息差缩窄压力仍然不小。三季度末商业银行净息差为1.42%，尽管与二季度持平，但较 去年四季度末下降了10个基点。因此，银行缺乏压降LPR报价加点的动力。 文/刘佳 11月20日，最新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）报价出炉。其中，5年期以上LPR报3.5%，上月为 3.5%。1年期LPR报3%，上月为3%。LPR继续选择"按兵不动"，连续6个月保持不变，符合市场预期。 谈及下一阶段货币政策，董希淼认为，未来一段时间，适度宽松的货币政策虽还有一定实施空间，但边 际效率已经明显下降。过度放松货币金融条件可能产生的一些负面效果也需要关注，比如资金空转、资 本市场波动加大等。因此，市场应降低对下一步大幅度降准降息的预期。 编辑：冯樱子 ...

中国央行将一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）分别维持在3%和3.5%不变，为连续六个月保持不变。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview and key events to watch from November 17 - 21, 2025, including economic data releases from multiple countries and regions and their potential impacts on the futures market [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - On November 19 at 18:00, the EU Statistics Bureau will announce the final value of the Eurozone's October CPI - On November 20 at 03:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the October monetary policy meeting - On November 20 at 09:00, the People's Bank of China will announce the November 20, 2025 loan prime rate (LPR), expected to be the same as the previous value - On November 20 at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non - farm payroll report - Attention should be paid to factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Federal Reserve officials for their impacts on the futures market [2] This Week's Hot - Spot Preview November 17 - Japan's Cabinet Office will announce the preliminary value of Japan's Q3 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted real GDP quarterly rate is - 0.6% (previous value 0.5%), and the expected seasonally - adjusted annualized GDP quarterly rate is - 2.5% (previous value 2.2%) [3] - The central bank carried out an 800 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation. With 300 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase maturing in November, this means an additional 500 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase was continued. It is bullish for stock index futures and commodity futures and relatively bullish for Treasury bond futures [4] - The National Energy Administration will announce China's total electricity consumption in October. The previous value was 888.6 billion kilowatt - hours, with a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [5] November 19 - The EU Statistics Bureau will announce the final value of the Eurozone's October CPI. The expected un - seasonally - adjusted annual rate of the harmonized CPI is 2.1% (same as the preliminary value in October, 2.2% in September's final value), and the expected un - seasonally - adjusted annual rate of the core harmonized CPI is 2.4% (same as the preliminary value in October and September's final value) [8] - The US Energy Information Administration will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending November 14. The previous value was an increase of 6.413 million barrels. A continued increase may suppress the prices of crude oil and related commodity futures [9] November 20 - The People's Bank of China will announce the November 20, 2025 LPR. The expected 1 - year LPR is 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR is 3.50%, both the same as the previous values [10] - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the October monetary policy meeting, which will provide details of discussions on interest rates, inflation, and economic prospects and clues for future policy paths [11] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non - farm payroll report. The expected seasonally - adjusted new non - farm employment is 50,000 (previous value 22,000), and the expected unemployment rate is 4.3% (same as the previous value). Higher new non - farm employment and a stable unemployment rate may reduce the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the December FOMC meeting and suppress the rise of commodity futures and stock index futures [12] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the October existing home sales. The expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total of existing home sales is 4.06 million households, the same as the previous value [13] - The EU Statistics Bureau will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's November consumer confidence index. The expected value is - 14.5 (previous value - 14.2) [14] November 21 - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of Germany's November SPGI manufacturing PMI. The expected value is 49.8 (previous value 49.6) [15] - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's November SPGI manufacturing PMI. The expected value is 50.2 (previous value 50) [16]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report - November 3, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Dushufang from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Group 2: Market Conditions Fundamental Analysis - Bank - inter - bond market sentiment is warm, with long - term bonds performing better. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.42%. The 10 - month PMI data led to higher expectations of policy easing in Q4, boosting bond market buying. There is a certain safety cushion for entering the bond market now. The overnight repo rate of deposit - taking institutions rose slightly and stabilized around 1.31%. The yields of secondary perpetual bonds declined by more than 2bp [3]. - On October 31, the People's Bank of China conducted 355.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 168 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on that day, the net investment was 187.1 billion yuan [3]. Basis Analysis - TS main basis is - 0.0487, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. TF main basis is - 0.06167, also bearish. T main basis is 0.1238, indicating the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. TL main basis is - 0.0061, bearish [3]. Inventory Analysis - The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1359.4 billion, 1493.5 billion, and 2359.9 billion respectively, considered neutral [4]. Disk Analysis - TS, TF, and T main contracts are all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. Main Position Analysis - TS main contract has a net long position with an increase in long positions. TF main contract also has a net long position with an increase in long positions. T main contract has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5]. Expectation Analysis - The central bank has increased the volume of MLF renewals for 8 consecutive months. The October PMI data is below the boom - bust line. In September, CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year, while core CPI's year - on - year increase has expanded for 5 consecutive months. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October FOMC meeting [5]. Group 3: Market Quotes - T2512.CFE: Price is 108.680, up 0.04%, trading volume is 66178, open interest is 242555, with a daily decrease of 2555, and the CTD bond is 220019.IB [8]. - TF2512.CFE: Price is 106.065, down 0.01%, trading volume is 51145, open interest is 149424, with a daily increase of 155, and the CTD bond is 250003.IB [8]. - TS2512.CFE: Price is 102.544, down 0.02%, trading volume is 30841, open interest is 72375, with a daily decrease of 1166, and the CTD bond is 250012.IB [8]. - TL2512.CFE: Price is 116.68, up 0.42%, trading volume is 103750, open interest is 142750, with a daily decrease of 1328, and the CTD bond is 210005.IB [8].