Group 1 - The Federal Reserve plans to significantly reduce the scope of regulatory oversight on bank safety and soundness, raising market concerns [1] - Trump hinted that the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair has been determined, expressing frustration over the resistance faced in dismissing Powell [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that Trump may announce the nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair before Christmas [1] Group 2 - Richmond Fed President Barkin supports Powell's view that a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion [3] - Fed Governor Barr expressed concerns that loosening regulations could lead to risk accumulation, potentially setting the stage for future crises [3] - Political uncertainty in the UK has increased, with nearly half of Labour Party voters wanting leader Starmer to step down before the next election, according to a Times poll [3] Group 3 - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Pill, emphasized that persistent inflation above target should not be overlooked, with expectations for inflation to gradually decline [3] - The Monetary Policy Committee believes that the neutral interest rate level is between 2% and 4% [3] - Japanese government economic strategy advisors indicated that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates before March next year [3] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda and other officials held a meeting to discuss economic policy, with Ueda suggesting a gradual approach to adjusting monetary easing [3]

美元指数技术分析 从DXY日线结构来看，美元指数当前处于低位震荡修复阶段，短期反弹动能温和但尚未形成趋势逆 转。9日与20日均线呈走平状态，显示价格仍处于整理区间；RSI指标位于50附近徘徊，表明多空力量 接近均衡； 上方阻力100.00为强压力区域，突破后可看向100.50–100.80；下方支撑99.20–99.00区间构成短线防守 位，若跌破恐进一步回探98.60与98.20。技术面总体偏中性，等待重大数据催化方向。 与此同时，多位地区联储主席对通胀表现表示担忧，并倾向于维持当前利率水平。据市场调查显示的机 构分析指出："在数据空窗期间，官员言论会被市场放大，短线上会增添美元的波动性。" 美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊昨日明确表态，在逐步趋近中性利率的过程中，降息步伐需保持审慎推 进。 与之相对，下任美联储主席五位核心候选人之一的理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，公开主张延续降息进程。 他警示美国劳动力市场已接近停滞边缘，薪资下行、职位空缺率与离职率同步回落，反映劳动力需求萎 缩，且无需担忧通胀反弹。 基于此，沃勒明确支持12月10日议息会议再降25个基点，目前市场隐含降息概率已达46%。 周三（11月19日）亚洲时段 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊周一表示，在将政策调整至可能不再对通胀构成下行 压力的水平过程中，美联储需要对任何进一步的降息行动保持"审慎推进"的态度。 在为堪萨斯城联储活动准备的讲话稿中，杰斐逊指出，考虑到就业市场风险上升，且通胀风险"近期有 所缓解"，他认为美联储上月实施的25个基点降息举措是恰当的。 "当前政策立场仍具有一定限制性，但已更接近既不抑制也不刺激经济的中性水平，"杰斐逊称，"风险 平衡的动态变化凸显，在接近中性利率的过程中，我们必须稳步推进政策调整。" 杰斐逊在后续发言中进一步阐述了自身观点，尤其强调了他所关注的就业市场风险。 他表示，美国就业市场目前处于"疲软"状态。由于经济政策的广泛调整，且企业对人工智能能否替代新 增岗位存在顾虑，雇主们在招聘方面持谨慎态度。 "当前劳动力市场……某种程度上呈现疲软态势，"杰斐逊在堪萨斯城联储活动中表示，"如果人工智能 确实能承担部分本应由新员工完成的工作，企业不愿过度投入新增招聘……此外，整体经济政策的未来 走向存在大量不确定性，这也是企业面临的重要问题。" "目前尚难判断这种状况将持续多久。" 目前，美联储官员对是否需要进一步降息存在 ...

克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，美联储应维持利率稳定，以继续对通胀施压，将物价增速拉回2%的目 标。她指出，尽管劳动力市场存在一定隐忧，高企的通胀依然顽固，尤其对低收入和中等收入家庭造成 持续冲击。哈马克认为，当前利率水平"几乎算不上限制性"，并暗示中性利率可能高于多数政策制定者 的估计，"为了保持政策的限制性，需要让利率维持在当前水平"。哈马克预计，通胀压力将持续到今年 年底甚至延续至明年初。她提到，企业此前已吸收了部分由关税引发的成本上涨，但如今越来越多的企 业寻求将这些成本转嫁给消费者，这可能使物价压力更加顽固。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve needs to exercise caution as policy interest rates approach neutral levels [1] Group 1 - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Musalem, emphasizes the importance of a careful approach in monetary policy [1] - The statement indicates a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's strategy as it navigates near neutral interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggests a potential 25 basis point rate cut in December, but believes a 50 basis point cut is more justified if economic conditions remain unchanged [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Milan emphasizes that monetary policy should be based on future economic predictions rather than current inflation or employment data, as policy effects take 12 to 18 months to materialize [1] - He notes that the housing market is a more critical indicator of monetary policy effectiveness than stock market performance [1][2] Group 2: Inflation and Housing Impact - Current inflation levels are partially inflated by "estimated items," particularly housing costs, while core price growth is closer to the Fed's 2% target when volatile items are excluded [2] - Policymakers should not overly worry about temporary inflation spikes but focus on more representative price trends [2] Group 3: Upcoming Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve's next rate decision meeting is scheduled for December, where officials will weigh the risks of price stability against full employment [2] - Despite inflation being above the 2% target for nearly five years, the labor market shows signs of cooling without a significant rise in unemployment [2]

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $49.20, with a recent price of $49.55, reflecting a 2.58% increase from the opening price of $48.34 per ounce [1] - The highest price reached today was $49.57, while the lowest was $48.30, indicating a bullish short-term trend for silver [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the growth of stablecoins could significantly lower the "neutral interest rate," suggesting that the Fed's policy rates should be adjusted downward to avoid economic contraction [3] - The White House economic advisor Hassett mentioned that the government shutdown has led to a 1.5% decline in U.S. GDP, with potential negative impacts on fourth-quarter economic growth if the shutdown continues [3] - Treasury Secretary Basant indicated that if the shutdown persists, U.S. economic growth for the fourth quarter could be halved [3] Group 3 - The international silver market is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with key resistance levels at $49.5, and potential targets of $51 and $52.5 if the price breaks above $49.5 [4] - Support levels to watch for potential buying opportunities are around $48.5, with expectations of upward movement throughout the week [4]

智通财经APP获悉，美联储三把手、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，尽管美国富裕家庭正从股市繁荣中受 益，但中低收入美国人的财务压力可能威胁到美国经济的韧性。他表示，美联储在12月的下一次利率决 议"确实是一场平衡之举"。他指出，"通胀仍然处于高位，目前没有显示出回落迹象"，但与此同 时，"美国经济展现出一定的韧性"。 尽管如此，许多美国民众仍在为住房和其他生活成本苦苦挣扎。威廉姆斯表示，有证据显示，"低收入 和中等收入家庭正从可负担性角度面临一些限制"。他补充称，这种状况对消费者信心和支出构成风 险，"毕竟，许多人实际上仍然是'月光族'，靠每月收入过活"。 圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆认为，美联储过去一年实施的货币政策宽松举措"目的正是为劳动力市场提 供保障"，同时他预计当前仍有50至75个基点的政策调整空间。特朗普任命的美联储理事米兰呼吁更激 进降息，称信贷压力表明现行政策限制性过强，他将持续主张进行超常规幅度的降息。 与此同时，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比则释放了更偏鹰派的信号。他表示，自己尚未决定是否支持12月降 息，并称当前他对降息的门槛"比前两次会议更高"。古尔斯比表示，通胀已经连续四年半高于目标，并 且"走势仍不 ...

杰斐逊强调，在未来的利率决策过程中，他将采取逐次会议的方式进行评估。他特别指出，在当前情况下这种审慎做法尤为必要，因为美国的政府停摆导致 经济数据的发布受到影响。原定于近期公布的十月非农就业报告已被推迟，这将是连续第二个月无法按时获得关键就业数据。 根据现有信息分析，杰斐逊 认为过去几个月美国整体经济形势保持相对稳定，经济继续以温和速度扩张，同时劳动力市场正在逐步降温。在通胀方面，他表示年度通胀率与一年前水平 相近，这主要受到外部因素影响，但同时也有迹象显示核心通胀可能正朝着百分之二的政策目标稳步靠拢。 在讨论经济前景时，杰斐逊还谈及人工智能技术发展的影响。他表示目前要准确评估AI对劳动力市场和价格水平的实际影响还为时过早。他指出，近期在 招聘模式、生产率增长和通胀变化中观察到的部分现象，可能反映了人工智能技术推动的变革，但具体影响程度仍难以确定。 美联储副主席杰斐逊近日表示，随着货币政策逐渐接近中性水平，美联储在未来的决策中应当保持谨慎态度。这一表态发生在美联储上周决定降息二十五个 基点之后，引发市场对后续政策路径的广泛关注。 在出席德国央行一场活动时，杰斐逊指出当前货币政策立场已从明显紧缩转向接近中性水平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The growth of stablecoins may significantly lower the "neutral interest rate" in the future, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates should be adjusted downward to avoid contractionary pressures on the economy [1] Group 1: Impact of Stablecoins - The expansion of stablecoins is expected to increase the net supply of lendable funds in the economy, applying downward pressure on the neutral interest rate [1] - If the neutral interest rate declines, the policy interest rate should also decrease to maintain economic health; refusal to lower rates would be considered a tightening action by the central bank [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - Federal Reserve Governor Milan has called for multiple 50 basis point rate cuts to bring the policy rate closer to what he considers a "neutral" level [1] - Factors such as immigration policy adjustments and changes in tariff policies are contributing to the decline in the neutral interest rate, while the current policy rate is "far above neutral levels," imposing significant restrictions on the economy [1] Group 3: Stablecoin Regulations - Stablecoins are digital currencies pegged to sovereign currencies (usually the US dollar) and are designed to maintain stable value [1] - Recent US legislation requires stablecoin issuers to hold reserves in cash and cash equivalents (including US Treasury securities) at a 1:1 ratio, indicating that as stablecoin issuance grows, demand for US Treasuries will also increase [1]