安哥拉5月外汇储备为157.5亿美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - European officials are expressing a desire for the euro to seize the opportunity to replace the dollar as the dominant global reserve currency amid fluctuations in U.S. assets due to Trump's tariff policies [1][2]. Group 1: Euro's Current Position and Potential - The dollar remains the most widely used reserve currency, accounting for nearly 60% of global foreign exchange reserves, while the euro holds about 20% [1]. - The dollar index has dropped over 8% since the beginning of the year, indicating a shift in geopolitical dynamics that may provide an opportunity for the euro's elevation [2]. - ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted that the changing geopolitical landscape could open doors for the euro to play a larger international role [2]. Group 2: Strategies for Elevating the Euro - Lagarde outlined three key strategies to enhance the euro's global influence: 1. Commitment to open trade and a strong geopolitical foundation [3]. 2. Strengthening the economic base through deeper and more liquid capital markets [3]. 3. Upholding the rule of law and political unity to withstand external pressures [3]. - An increased reserve currency status for the euro could lead to lower borrowing costs for European governments and protection from exchange rate fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions on Euro's Future - ECB officials, including Lagarde, see potential for the euro as a safe haven amid declining confidence in the U.S. [6]. - Market observers express mixed views on the euro's ability to capture a larger share of global foreign exchange reserves, with some optimistic about its prospects [6][7]. - Nomura's chief European economist noted that as investors seek diversification away from the dollar, the euro could gain more attention, predicting it may rise to 1.20 against the dollar by year-end [6]. - However, some analysts argue that the euro faces significant obstacles, including political fragmentation among member states and reliance on U.S. security frameworks, which limit its global influence [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Ministry of Finance emphasizes that foreign exchange reserves continue to provide a buffer against external shocks [1] Group 1 - The foreign exchange reserves are crucial for maintaining economic stability and mitigating risks associated with global financial fluctuations [1] - The reserves serve as a protective measure for the economy, ensuring that it can withstand potential external pressures [1]

引言： 5月最新消息，美国外债再创新高，竟然高达36万亿美元，而印度外债也高达160万亿卢比。 美国是如何一步步从净债权国变成负债国的？中国的外债情况如何呢？ 债台高筑 不出意外，中国又减持美债了。 截止今年5月，美国外债负债率已经高达36.21万亿美元，甚至比全美全年财政收入还多。 70年前美国还是净债权国，只有别人欠他的，没有他欠别人的，怎么就突然变成最大的外债国了呢？ 一来，美国经济下行引发了债务危机。 发行美债其实是无底洞的恶性循环，只要美国经济形势不好，为了稳定局势就要发行美债，但发行美债就意味着欠的外债和利息更多，最终无力偿还。 这就直接导致美国外战像滚雪球一样越滚越大，现在还出现了刹车失灵。 美财政部统计了今年三月关于购买美债的最新数据，结果发现第二债权国中国连续减持275亿，从顺位第二滑到了顺位第三。 而一直顶在中国身后的英国则被推到了台前，与日本一起稳住美债的总体态势。 中国减持美债对投资市场而言无疑是一种消极信号，预示着美债从最保值的投资产品变成高风险投资。 就连风投机构也认为，现在美债的投资价值大打折扣。 国际投资玩家们正在退场，美联储和美国财政部已经慌不择路了，毕竟这么大的债务缺口如果 ...

罗马尼亚央行行长：外汇储备仍处于最优水平。 ...

罗马尼亚央行行长：月底外汇储备数据将显示下降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China does not resort to selling US Treasury bonds as a countermeasure against the US due to its significant foreign exchange reserves and the potential risks associated with such actions [1][5][6]. Group 1: China's Economic Position - As of early 2025, China holds $784.3 billion in US Treasury bonds, equivalent to approximately 5.65 trillion RMB at an exchange rate of 1:7.2 [3][4]. - China's foreign exchange reserves stand at $3.2 trillion, with over half in US dollar assets, primarily in the form of US Treasury bonds [4][5]. Group 2: Reasons for Holding US Treasuries - Foreign exchange reserves are crucial for stabilizing the currency and managing macroeconomic conditions, especially during times of pressure on the RMB [5][6]. - Selling off large amounts of US Treasuries could lead to a significant drop in their prices, adversely affecting China's own financial position [5][6]. Group 3: Future Considerations - While China has been gradually reducing its holdings of US Treasuries since their peak of $1.2 trillion in 2020, it is unlikely to completely divest from them in the near future [6][7]. - A large-scale sale of US Treasuries by China would only occur under extreme circumstances, such as a loss of confidence in the US dollar or significant political issues [7][8].

Group 1: Guangdong Foreign Trade - Guangdong's foreign trade import and export reached 2.96 trillion yuan in the first four months of this year, growing by 4.9% year-on-year, outpacing the national growth rate of 2.5% [1] - Exports totaled 1.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.1%, while imports amounted to 1.1 trillion yuan, growing by 10.1% [1] - Guangdong's stable foreign trade growth serves as a "ballast" for the national foreign trade landscape, contributing significantly to overall national trade growth [1] Group 2: Dongguan Major Projects - Dongguan has announced the first batch of major project supplements for 2025, with a total investment exceeding 29.5 billion yuan, covering infrastructure, industrial projects, and public welfare [2] - Infrastructure construction is expected to boost demand in related industries such as construction and building materials, while industrial projects will promote development across various sectors, creating more economic value [3] Group 3: Hong Kong-Kuwait Cooperation - Hong Kong's Chief Executive, John Lee, led a trade delegation to Kuwait, emphasizing Hong Kong's role as an international financial center and the largest offshore RMB business hub [4] - The trade volume between Hong Kong and the Gulf Cooperation Council reached nearly 20 billion USD last year, increasing by over 53% in the past four years, showcasing Hong Kong's strategic advantage of connecting China and the world [4] Group 4: Macau Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of April, Macau's foreign exchange reserves totaled approximately 229.2 billion patacas, a decrease of 2.8% from the revised total of 235.8 billion patacas in March [5] - The foreign exchange reserves are about 11 times the currency in circulation in Macau as of the end of March, or 87.7% of the M2 money supply in patacas [5] - Adequate foreign exchange reserves are crucial for Macau to withstand external shocks amid increasing global economic uncertainties [5] Group 5: Shenzhen Stock Market - On May 15, the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,186.45 points, down by 1.62% [6] - Notable gainers included Qingsong Co. with a price of 6.40 yuan, up 20.08%, and Chuaning Bio with a price of 14.02 yuan, up 20.03% [7] - Significant decliners included Wantong Technology at 8.27 yuan, down 10.01%, and Narl Co. at 11.24 yuan, also down 10.01% [7]

Group 1 - The Chinese government is responding to unilateral tariff measures imposed by the U.S., which have severely impacted Sino-U.S. economic relations and disrupted international trade order [1] - Recent discussions between Chinese and U.S. officials indicate a potential shift in tariff policies, with the U.S. expressing interest in negotiations [1] - Concerns among investors regarding high tariffs affecting consumer prices and supply chain stability are growing, especially following punitive tariffs from the Trump administration [1] Group 2 - As of April 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.2817 trillion, an increase of $41 billion from March, marking a 1.27% rise [3] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and fluctuations in global financial asset prices [3][5] - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.2 trillion for 17 consecutive months, indicating a stable economic outlook [3] Group 3 - The U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a rate cut [5] - Concerns about rising inflation and slowing economic growth in the U.S. have been highlighted, with potential implications for global markets [5][7] - The Fed's cautious stance may delay capital flows back to emerging markets, impacting their asset performance [7]

Group 1 - The Taiwanese dollar (TWD) experienced a significant appreciation, with the USD/TWD exchange rate dropping 7-8% over two consecutive days in early May, marking a historical volatility record that affected overall Asian currency fluctuations [1] - The Central Bank of Taiwan stated that the appreciation was not due to pressure from the US, but rather driven by exporters concentrating their foreign exchange settlements [1] - Taiwanese life insurance companies are unlikely to sell off their US dollar assets in the short term, despite the pressure from TWD appreciation and rising hedging costs, as US Treasury bonds remain a scarce long-duration asset [1][5] Group 2 - The next potential focus for currency movements in Asia includes the TWD and Malaysian ringgit (MYR), which are expected to benefit from high dollar deposit ratios and strong export settlement potential [2] - The South Korean won (KRW) is anticipated to have room for appreciation due to its high correlation with USD/CNY amid a downward trend in both currencies [2] - The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to perform solidly in the long term, supported by diversified asset allocation by the central bank and its AAA credit rating [2] Group 3 - The Chinese yuan (CNY) is projected to remain stable with a slight strengthening trend, as policymakers prefer a stable exchange rate path despite tariff pressures and capital outflow risks [2] - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) is expected to maintain a strong position within its linked exchange rate system, bolstered by robust southbound capital inflows and significant liquidity injections by the Monetary Authority [2] - The Indian rupee (INR) faces pressure from geopolitical tensions and potential foreign exchange reserve accumulation by the Reserve Bank of India, making it difficult to outperform other high-yield currencies in the short term [2] Group 4 - The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) is considered undervalued, with expectations for a rebound due to manageable fiscal deficit risks and lower oil prices reducing subsidy expenditures [2]