Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves have shown a steady increase, reaching $33,174 billion by the end of June, reflecting the resilience of the national economy and its ability to manage complex domestic and international economic situations [1][2] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Economic Stability - The foreign exchange reserves have increased for six consecutive months and have remained above $3.2 trillion for 19 months, indicating a robust economic growth [1] - In the first half of the year, China's total exports reached 13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 7.2%, while non-financial foreign direct investment amounted to $61.6 billion, up 2.3% [1] Group 2: Impact on Monetary Policy - The increase in foreign exchange reserves directly influences domestic monetary policy, allowing for adjustments in liquidity in the market [2] - The current foreign exchange reserves cover 14 months of imports and are 3.2 times the short-term external debt, providing a strong foundation for the stability of the RMB exchange rate [2] Group 3: Trade and Investment Implications - Adequate foreign exchange reserves support a stable exchange rate, which helps enterprises manage import and export risks and enhances China's negotiating power in trade disputes [3] - The reserves enable Chinese enterprises to invest abroad, particularly in infrastructure and commodities, while also allowing the Ministry of Finance to issue bonds denominated in euros or yen [3] Group 4: Asset Composition and Strategy - The management of foreign exchange reserves focuses on safety, liquidity, and profitability, with a notable shift away from U.S. Treasury bonds, which have decreased by $54 billion from their peak [4] - As of June, China's gold reserves increased to 7.39 million ounces, indicating a strategic move to diversify reserve assets and enhance the long-term value of the RMB [4]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Musalem indicated that foreign exchange reserves appear to be sufficient at this time, but a scarcity of these reserves would signal potential issues [1] Group 1 - The current status of foreign exchange reserves is deemed adequate [1] - A future decline in foreign exchange reserves could indicate emerging risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in China's foreign exchange reserves and gold holdings may suggest a potential investment opportunity in gold for ordinary investors, but historical trends indicate that central bank actions do not always correlate with gold price movements [2][3]. Summary by Sections Foreign Exchange Reserves and Gold Holdings - As of mid-2025, China's foreign exchange reserves have surpassed $3.3 trillion, with gold holdings reaching 73.9 million ounces, marking an increase for eight consecutive months [2]. Historical Context of Gold Prices - Despite central banks increasing gold purchases, gold prices have sometimes declined. For instance, from November 2012 to December 2015, gold prices fell by 37% even as central banks bought more gold [2][3]. - The price of gold has historically experienced significant volatility, often influenced by geopolitical factors and economic conditions rather than solely by central bank actions [3]. Recent Trends in Gold Prices - Since January 2022, domestic gold prices in China rose from 368 yuan per gram to a peak of 825 yuan per gram by April 2025, reflecting a 124% increase, while international gold prices also saw over a 110% rise during the same period [3]. Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - In the second quarter of 2025, global gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of 123 tons, the largest in three years, indicating that some investors are cashing out [4]. - Domestic retail sales of gold and jewelry increased by 12.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with significant spikes in trading volume during periods of heightened geopolitical tension [4][5]. Caution for New Investors - The influx of ordinary investors into the gold market may signal that prices have already factored in current uncertainties, suggesting a potential peak in investment demand [5]. - New investors should carefully consider their asset allocation and the associated risks, especially given the high transaction costs and potential for lower returns from short-term gold holdings [5].

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Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion by the end of June 2025, marking a 0.98% increase from the previous month, and this is the first time since September 2024 that reserves surpassed the $33 trillion mark [4][6] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 7.39 million ounces (approximately 2298.55 tons), adding 70,000 ounces in June, which is the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [7][9] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to three main factors: a decline in the US dollar index, rising global asset prices, and appreciation of non-USD currencies [6][8] - The US dollar index fell by 2.5% in June, reaching a three-year low, which increased the dollar value of non-USD assets held in reserves [6] - Global asset prices saw a rise, with the USD-denominated global bond index increasing by 1.0% and the S&P 500 index rising by 5.0% in June [6] - The appreciation of the euro and British pound against the dollar by 3.89% and 2.1% respectively also contributed to the increase in the dollar value of non-USD assets [6] Gold Reserves - The continuous increase in gold reserves is driven by the need to optimize reserve structure, respond to global uncertainties, and capitalize on the long-term upward trend in gold prices [7][9] - China's gold reserves are significantly lower than the world average, and increasing gold holdings can enhance the diversification and risk resistance of foreign exchange reserves [7] - The central bank's strategy reflects a strong recognition of gold's strategic value, aiming to maintain economic stability amid complex global conditions [7][9] Global Central Bank Trends - Despite the ongoing accumulation of gold, the monthly increase in gold holdings by the People's Bank of China has been decreasing, indicating a strategy to control purchase costs and optimize reserve structure [9] - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 72% of global central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next five years, while 73% expect to reduce their dollar reserves [10] - The current geopolitical uncertainties and economic factors are driving central banks to view gold as a strategic asset for risk mitigation [10]

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3174 trillion, marking a $32.2 billion increase from the end of May, with a growth rate of 0.98% [2] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained stable above $3.2 trillion for 19 consecutive months [2] - The increase in reserves in June was influenced by the depreciation of the US dollar and the overall rise in global financial asset prices [2] - The US dollar index fell by 2.5% to its lowest point in three years at 96.9, leading to a collective appreciation of non-USD currencies [2][3] Group 2: Asset Valuation and Market Impact - The rise in foreign exchange reserves was supported by a 1.0% increase in the USD-hedged global bond index and a 5.0% increase in the S&P 500 stock index [2] - The valuation of foreign reserves was positively impacted by the overall increase in global financial asset prices [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that China's foreign exchange reserves are at a moderately sufficient level, providing support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate and mitigating potential external shocks [3] - Factors such as steady economic growth and resilient foreign trade are expected to help maintain the stability of foreign exchange reserves [3] Group 4: Gold Reserves - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves increased by 70,000 ounces to 7.39 million ounces, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank [4] - The importance of gold as a reliable asset is increasing due to the normalization of global geopolitical risks and the diminishing reliability of traditional safe-haven assets like the US dollar [4] - Gold is viewed as a non-sovereign credit reserve asset that can effectively hedge against single currency risks and optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves [4]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market rose, with the ChiNext index increasing by nearly 2.4% and total trading volume reaching 1.47 trillion yuan, indicating a gradual increase in risk appetite and liquidity in the domestic market [1] - The market is expected to experience a structural trend, with indices fluctuating while the central tendency moves upward, as corporate earnings still face pressure despite signs of economic recovery [1] Economic Indicators - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves reached 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of May, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,174 billion, up by $32.2 billion from the end of May, remaining stable above $3.2 trillion for 19 consecutive months [2] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a notice to promote the scientific planning and construction of high-power charging facilities, aiming for over 100,000 such facilities nationwide by the end of 2027 [2][3] - The policy aims to address the challenges in charging infrastructure for new energy vehicles, with expectations for accelerated construction from 2025 to 2027, benefiting the upstream and downstream of the industry chain [3] Trade Relations - The U.S. government announced a delay in tariff negotiations, with President Trump set to sign an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all products imported from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, 2025 [3] - This trade policy reflects the Trump administration's strategy of using pressure to facilitate negotiations, which may increase global market volatility in the short term [3] Market Performance - On July 8, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index close at 3,497.48 points, up 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 10,588.39 points [4] - Among the sectors, utilities and banking experienced declines, while telecommunications, power equipment, and electronics led the gains [4] Capital Flow - The market's trading volume was 1,474.798 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day, with the margin financing balance also rising to 1,859.38 billion yuan [5]

国家外汇管理局7月7日发布的最新数据显示，截至2025年6月末，我国外汇储备规模达到33174亿美元，较5月末增加322亿美元，涨幅为0.98%。这一数据标 志着我国外储规模连续19个月稳定在3.2万亿美元以上，同时实现连续6个月的环比增长。与此同时，央行黄金储备数据同步公布，6月末黄金储备为7390万 盎司，环比增加7万盎司，这已是央行连续第8个月增持黄金。 外储规模重返高位的驱动因素 央行黄金储备的持续增持策略 央行连续8个月增持黄金的举措体现了对国际储备结构优化的战略考量。尽管6月份的增持量为7万盎司，与前几个月相比处于相对低位，但这一持续增持的 节奏符合市场预期。5月以来国际经贸摩擦态势有所降温，避险需求的弱化导致国际金价出现小幅调整，但整体仍维持在高位水平。 6月份外汇储备规模的显著上升主要源于两个关键因素的共同作用。美元指数在当月出现大幅下跌，跌幅达到2.5%，创下三年来的最低点96.9。这一变化直 接推动非美货币集体升值，其中欧元兑美元上涨3.89%，英镑兑美元上涨2.1%。由于我国外汇储备以美元计价，非美货币的升值通过汇率折算效应，有效增 加了外汇储备的规模。 全球金融资产价格的总体上涨构成了 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on July 7, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 106.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 331.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 225 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding environment remains loose, but short-term funding rates are beginning to stabilize, with overnight pledged repo rates slightly rising to 1.31% and 7-day pledged repo rates increasing by over 4 basis points to 1.46% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.40% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.59%, showing little change from the previous day [6] Group 4: Bond Yield Trends - The yield spreads for AAA-rated local government bonds across various maturities have been detailed, with specific rates provided for 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and ultra-long bonds [10] - The 30-year main contract for government bonds closed down by 0.04%, while the 10-year contract remained unchanged [11] Group 5: Key Economic Indicators - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.3174 trillion USD, an increase of 32.2 billion USD or 0.98% from the end of May, influenced by macroeconomic policies and asset price changes [12] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue two tranches of book-entry treasury bonds totaling 124 billion yuan for 2-year and 3-year maturities on July 11 [12] Group 6: Global Economic Context - Japan's long-term government bonds have seen a decline, with the 20-year yield reaching its highest level since early June, amid concerns over potential increased fiscal spending following the upcoming Senate elections [14]

"6月，我国外汇储备较上月增加322亿美元，录得月度'六连涨'，上半年累计增加1151亿美元。"中银证 券全球首席经济学家管涛说。 在东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青看来，6月末美元指数比5月末大幅下降2.68%，这意味着6月美元大幅 贬值推动我国外汇储备中非美元资产大幅升值的效应显著增强，这是6月外汇储备规模扩大的主要原 因。 王青表示，按不同标准测算，当前我国略高于3万亿美元的外汇储备规模都处于适度充裕水平，短期内 有望保持基本稳定。在外部环境波动加大背景下，适度充裕的外汇储备规模将为保持人民币汇率处于合 理均衡水平提供重要支撑，也将成为抵御外部冲击的压舱石。（下转A02版） （上接A01版）往后看，国家外汇管理局表示，我国经济持续稳健增长，保持良好发展势头，有利于外 汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 ● 本报记者 彭扬 国家外汇管理局7月7日发布数据显示，截至2025年6月末，我国外汇储备规模为33174亿美元，较5月末 上升322亿美元，升幅为0.98%。 "2025年6月，受主要经济体宏观政策、经济增长前景等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总 体上涨。"国家外汇局相关负责人说，在汇率折算和资产价格变化等因 ...