Group 1 - The training conference on futures hedging applications for steel and casting aluminum alloy was successfully held in Hefei, focusing on the integration of the metal industry chain and futures market [1][2] - The event was attended by over 70 participants, including representatives from steel and aluminum alloy production, trade, and processing companies [1] - The president of the Anhui Metal Materials Circulation Association emphasized the rapid development of the steel and high-end equipment sectors in Anhui, while also addressing the impact of the US-China trade war on metal commodity futures [1] Group 2 - The analysis team provided insights into the characteristics and applications of casting aluminum alloy, including its lightweight and high-strength properties, along with details on futures contract specifications [2] - A market outlook for the steel industry in 2025 and the second half of the year was presented, offering participants professional analysis and practical experience [2] - The conference aimed to strengthen the connection between industry and finance, providing strategies for companies to navigate market volatility [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the role of futures in supporting high-quality development within the agricultural sector, particularly through the innovative models adopted by enterprises in the futures market to stabilize operations and enhance supply chain security [1]. Group 1: Company Insights - Yuntu Holdings, a leading compound fertilizer company, has established a comprehensive risk management system that integrates futures trading into its procurement, production, and sales processes, allowing it to stabilize costs and ensure supply during price fluctuations [2][3]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has seen its urea trading volume increase from 1.2 million tons in 2021 to approximately 2.45 million tons in 2024, demonstrating its proactive approach to risk management through futures [3][4]. - Huailong Group has actively participated in the urea futures market since its launch in 2019, recognizing the importance of futures tools for managing price volatility and enhancing operational efficiency [4][5]. Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - Yuntu Holdings employs a risk management matrix that includes buying hedges to lock in costs, production guidance based on futures prices, and selling hedges to mitigate inventory devaluation risks [3]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has innovated its business model by utilizing urea options and implementing strategies such as selling options to enhance sales profits and control procurement costs [4]. - Huailong Group has utilized futures to create virtual inventories, effectively managing procurement costs during periods of price fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration - The article highlights the increasing adoption of basis trading models among enterprises, which not only stabilizes their operations but also supports upstream and downstream partners in managing costs and securing supply [6][7]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has successfully assisted downstream clients in locking in raw material costs through basis pricing, resulting in significant cost savings [6][7]. - The collaboration among enterprises in the futures market has led to the establishment of a new ecosystem that integrates futures trading with operational strategies, enhancing overall industry resilience [8][10]. Group 4: Future Directions - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange continues to support the development of production and finance bases, aiming to enhance the understanding and utilization of futures among industry players [8][9]. - Yuntu Holdings plans to further promote the application of urea futures and assist clients in designing risk management strategies, fostering long-term cooperative ecosystems [8][10]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer aims to improve service quality by collecting feedback from upstream and downstream enterprises, enhancing the customization of risk management solutions [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Currently, the industry is in a state of supply - demand imbalance with continuously falling lithium carbonate prices. The recycling end's industry operating rate is generally low, and the proportion of recycling end output in total lithium carbonate output is expected to decline in 2025. The future production plans of recycling enterprises are greatly affected by scrap prices, and short - term capacity utilization will not increase significantly [2]. - With the improvement of power battery technology and extended battery life, the number of retired batteries is expected to gradually increase starting in 2027, and the arrival of the retirement wave may be postponed [2]. - After the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation by Document 136, energy storage demand has shifted from policy - driven to market - driven, and from cost - oriented to more focus on comprehensive performance, which is conducive to promoting product innovation in energy storage enterprises and the healthy development of the industry [2][8]. - The lithium carbonate industry has a high and fast acceptance of futures tools, with many enterprises conducting futures hedging and basis point pricing, and some excellent enterprises exploring option - embedded trading [3]. - All technical routes of solid - state batteries have different technical difficulties, and there are currently no good solutions, so the development of solid - state batteries requires a long - term perspective [3]. Company - Specific Summaries A Enterprise - Battery Recycling - The enterprise is engaged in the recycling of lithium iron phosphate waste batteries with a production capacity of 11,000 tons. Since April this year, the production line has been basically shut down due to the decline in lithium carbonate prices [5]. - The enterprise mainly purchases black powder as raw material, and the current spot market for black powder has weak trading. The yield of producing lithium carbonate from battery powder is about 92%, and from pole piece powder is about 95%. The sources of black powder are mainly in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Xinxiang, Henan [5]. - The cash processing cost of the wet - process production line is about 15,000 yuan/ton, with a current loss of 3,000 - 5,000 yuan/ton; the processing cost of the crushing production line is between 1,000 - 1,500 yuan/ton depending on local electricity prices, barely maintaining the break - even point [5]. - The future cost optimization space lies in the utilization of iron phosphate, enterprise scale, and the layout of the entire industrial chain by large - scale recycling enterprises [5]. - Currently, about 90% of lithium iron phosphate recycling production lines and 40% - 50% of ternary recycling production lines in the industry are shut down. It is expected that the recycling end's production capacity will increase year - on - year this year, but the actual output will decrease [6]. - The enterprise's methods to deal with the shortage of raw material supply are to develop new raw materials through technological advantages and cooperate with large cell and battery manufacturers [6]. - It is expected that the proportion of lithium extraction from recycling in lithium carbonate production will increase from 10% to 20% - 30% around 2027, but it is difficult for the share of lithium extraction from recycling to exceed 50% in 2030 [6]. B Enterprise - Battery and Materials - The company's business scope covers lithium mines, lithium carbonate production, lithium - battery materials, energy storage, and recycling. It has four lithium mine resources, and the Tong'an porcelain mine has a relatively high grade among domestic mica mines. The company plans to process 1.5% grade raw ore to 2.5% for subsequent lithium extraction to reduce lithium slag production [7]. - The enterprise plans a lithium carbonate production capacity of 30,000 tons/year. The first - phase 10,000 - ton capacity was officially put into production in July 2023, and the remaining 20,000 - ton capacity will be put into production after further cost reduction. The output in 2024 was about 6,000 tons, and it is expected to be 8,000 tons in 2025. 50% of the lithium ore comes from its own mines, and 50% from external sources. The enterprise plans to reduce production costs by extracting by - products rubidium and cesium [7]. - The enterprise has technical advantages in pole pieces and electrodes. Its lithium - battery business is mainly PACK, not involving cells. In terms of battery technology routes, nickel - hydrogen batteries have advantages in specific scenarios but are difficult to replace lithium - ion batteries as the mainstream. The enterprise believes that solid - state batteries still need time to be fully industrialized and is currently developing dry - electrode technology for solid - state batteries [7]. - After the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation, the independent energy storage power station has a development opportunity. The enterprise is actively expanding relevant businesses in Hebei, Shandong, Guangdong, Inner Mongolia and other regions [8]. C Enterprise - Battery Recycling - The initial annual production capacity of lithium carbonate of the enterprise is 4,000 tons, and it has under - construction production capacities of 65,000 tons of nickel phosphate, cobalt phosphate, and manganese phosphate, 15,000 tons of iron phosphate, and 12,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate. The first - phase of the new production base is under construction with a 15,000 - ton electric carbon production capacity, and the second and third phases are planned for 15,000 tons of electric carbon and lithium hydroxide production capacity, as well as a 100,000 - ton iron phosphate production capacity [10]. - The enterprise has its own innovative technology, and its products can be directly used for futures delivery, having a cost advantage compared with similar enterprises. Currently, due to over - capacity and the concentration of consumer waste batteries in traders, the raw material procurement cost has increased. The enterprise's production cost is showing a downward trend, but the space for further cost reduction is limited [10]. - The enterprise actively uses derivative tools to deal with the decline in lithium carbonate prices, is one of the first enterprises to participate in lithium carbonate futures delivery, and widely uses strategies such as basis trading and option - embedded trading [10]. - It is expected that the number of retired batteries will gradually increase starting in 2027. Currently, the recycling raw materials are still mainly factory waste. After the national policy to liberalize the import of overseas black powder on July 1, 2023, it is expected to increase the supply of waste materials for recycling enterprises [11]. - Due to intense competition in the cell industry and a significant decline in cell costs, there is no obvious advantage in battery echelon utilization, and the market prefers to directly purchase new batteries [12].

Group 1: Investor Relations Activity Overview - The company guarantees the authenticity, accuracy, and completeness of the announcement content, assuming legal responsibility for any misrepresentation or omissions [2] - The investor relations activity is categorized as "Other," specifically the Hubei Listed Companies 2025 Investor Collective Reception Day [3] - The event will take place on June 12, 2025, via a remote network format, allowing investors to participate through various online platforms [3] Group 2: Key Participants - Attendees include investors participating in the Hubei Listed Companies 2025 Investor Collective Reception Day [3] - Company representatives include Chairman Xu Honglin, Director and Secretary Zhang Qing, and Director and Financial Officer Chen Ming [3] Group 3: Response to Raw Material Price Fluctuations - The company primarily uses iron, copper, tin, and neodymium-iron-boron rare earth materials as raw materials, which significantly impact product pricing [4] - To mitigate risks from raw material price fluctuations, the company employs a pricing strategy based on raw material costs plus processing fees, aiming to maintain stable profit margins [4] - In 2023, the company initiated hedging activities for copper and tin to protect against price volatility, effectively reducing operational risks [4] - The cost of raw materials for iron-based powder metallurgy parts and ferrite permanent magnets constitutes a lower percentage of total costs, resulting in minimal impact from price fluctuations [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of futures and derivatives in enhancing risk management for real enterprises, particularly in the context of the construction materials industry [1][4] - The training organized by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) provided comprehensive learning opportunities for the business team of Kaisheng Resources, covering fundamental principles, hedging strategies, and practical applications of risk management [1][2] - Kaisheng Resources, a subsidiary of China National Building Material Group, has expanded its procurement categories from soda ash to include quartz sand, natural gas, tin ingots, and precious metals, indicating a strategic shift towards utilizing futures for risk management [1][3] Group 2 - The training session was well-received by participants, who found the content practical and beneficial for understanding futures and derivatives, thus enhancing their risk management capabilities [3][5] - Hebei Zhengda Glass Co., as a case study, demonstrated the effectiveness of futures in risk management, utilizing strategies such as spot-futures combinations and cross-period arbitrage to optimize profits and expand their customer base [2][3] - The ZCE aims to provide customized solutions for state-owned enterprises, focusing on improving service quality and addressing challenges in participating in the futures market [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices. It is advisable to short at high prices in the medium to long term. The short - term (1 - 3 months) probability of the Guinea Axis mine remaining shut is high, but the long - term risk of permanent closure is uncertain [3]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term, with a possible short - term upward trend, but a bearish view in the medium term [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure. Short - term unilateral operations should be cautious, and positive spreads can be considered [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 2895 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.4309, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.9309 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main alumina futures contract at 3200 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main alumina futures contract at 2700 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: The Guinea Axis mine has not resumed production, and port inventory shipping is restricted. The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices [3]. - **Leveraging Factors**: The Guinea government has revoked some mining licenses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: New production capacity is being put into operation, demand has no growth, profit recovery may lead to the resumption of production by shut - down enterprises, and spot prices have fallen in some areas [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 20250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19000 - 20300 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0977, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.4114 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 20100 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 19600 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is weakening, and low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term [5]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Low inventory and continuous de - stocking, tight spot supply in East China [5][8]. - **Negative Factors**: Terminal factory orders have decreased significantly, downstream operating rates have declined slightly, and there are signs of product inventory accumulation [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 19400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 18500 - 19900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: The cost is strongly supported by tight scrap aluminum supply, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure [5]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Tight scrap aluminum supply supports costs [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Expected weakening demand and industry over - capacity [5][6]. Market Data - **Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of various aluminum and alumina contracts are provided, including Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, and alumina contracts, as well as regional price differences and basis data [7][9][13]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of aluminum and alumina, including Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, London Metal Exchange inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts, are presented [27].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks the first recycled metal commodity in China's futures market, with strong initial trading performance and participation from leading aluminum companies [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On the first trading day, all seven contracts for casting aluminum alloy futures closed higher, with the main contract AD2511 opening at 19,400 yuan/ton and closing at 19,190 yuan/ton, a rise of 825 yuan/ton or 4.49% from the listing benchmark price of 18,365 yuan/ton [3][4]. - The total trading volume for the seven contracts reached 57,300 lots, with a transaction value of 11.011 billion yuan, and the main contract AD2511 accounted for 52,300 lots and 10.1 billion yuan in transaction value [3][4]. Industry Participation - Major aluminum companies such as Shunbo Alloy, Lichong Group, and Judong Co. actively participated in the trading on the first day, indicating strong industry interest [1][6][8]. - The recycled aluminum alloy industry is primarily composed of private enterprises, with a market concentration of about 30% among the top five companies [7]. Price Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the initial price performance aligns with expectations, but caution that the market may experience significant price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes and supply dynamics [4][5]. - The industry faces challenges such as overcapacity and low profit margins, with a projected operating rate of only 53% in 2024, which may limit future price increases [4][5]. Impact on Related Companies - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures has positively impacted stock prices of related companies, with Shunbo Alloy rising by 10.01% and Lichong Group by 7.60% as of June 11 [8]. - Shunbo Alloy's projected revenue for 2024 is 13.977 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, although its net profit is expected to decrease by 47.96% [8]. Strategic Importance - The introduction of these futures is expected to enhance risk management for industry players, providing a more effective hedging tool compared to existing aluminum futures [8][9]. - The futures market is anticipated to play a significant role in the pricing mechanism for aluminum alloys, contributing to a more transparent and fair market environment [8][9][10].

经中国证监会同意，铸造铝合金期货、铸造铝合金期权今天9时、21时先后在上海期货交易所挂牌交易。 铸造铝合金期货及期权上市，将为产业链参与者提供有效的风险管理工具和公开、透明的价格，推动铸造铝合金市场交易机制的规范化发展。那具体对我国 铝产业链企业有哪些影响呢？ 走进企业的生产区域，记者看到生产铸造铝合金的原材料都是回收来的废铝。 上海某新材料企业负责人程帅：这些废铝来源包括，汽车到了报废年限拆解出来的废铝，生活中使用过的易拉罐，或者一些锅碗瓢盆用废后报废掉的。 由于铸造铝合金具有低密度、高强度、良好的抗蚀性和优异的铸造工艺性，已被广泛应用于汽车、机械设备等领域。这家企业80%的业务就来源于汽车行 业。 而在企业生产中遇到的最大难题就在于废铝采购。废铝的价格虽然跟着纯铝走，但是两者的价格波动会有一个时间差。 上海某新材料企业负责人 程帅：比如今天一吨纯铝涨了100元，可能一吨废铝过了两三天才涨50元，这就给我们生产经营造成了很大的不确定性。 上海某新材料企业负责人 程帅：有了期货工具后，就可以根据期货订单做到工厂满产生产，哪怕没有客户订单，也可以在期货上做价格保护。 除了能平稳企业的采购与销售，铸造铝合金期货及 ...

Group 1 - The core concept of options hedging is to use the characteristics of options to offset potential losses in spot or futures positions, thereby achieving risk management and profit protection [6][4] - Options hedging involves establishing an options position that generates returns to compensate for losses in the underlying spot or futures, aiming to lock in or reduce price risk [6][4] - The principle of futures hedging is based on the high correlation between the prices of the same underlying asset in the spot, futures, and options markets, where futures prices generally move in the same direction as spot prices [3][4] Group 2 - Protective hedging can be classified into two types based on the intent of the hedger: purchasing call options for consumers to prevent price increases, and purchasing put options for producers to prevent price decreases [7][6] - The protective hedging strategy allows for locking in losses while retaining the potential for profit, functioning as an insurance strategy against adverse price movements [6][7] - The number of options contracts for hedging should typically match the size of the underlying spot or futures position, but adjustments can be made based on market volatility assessments for better hedging effectiveness [8][7]

Core Viewpoint - The current downturn in the polysilicon industry is primarily driven by a significant oversupply, leading to a drastic decline in prices, necessitating effective risk management tools for the photovoltaic sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Since the end of 2022, polysilicon prices have plummeted from over 300,000 yuan/ton to approximately 37,500 yuan/ton, a decline of over 85% [1]. - The current operating rate of the polysilicon industry is around 35%, with inventory days decreasing from nearly 5 months to about 3 months [1]. - China's polysilicon production capacity has reached nearly 3.1 million tons, sufficient to meet over 1,440 GW of downstream demand, while social inventory remains high at around 390,000 tons [1]. Group 2: Risk Management Tools - The introduction of polysilicon futures and options provides photovoltaic companies with essential risk management tools, enabling them to hedge against price fluctuations [2][3]. - Polysilicon futures have shown a strong correlation with spot prices, reflecting market expectations more rapidly, particularly during periods of declining demand [2]. - The active trading of polysilicon futures, with an average daily volume of around 100,000 contracts, creates a favorable environment for companies to engage in hedging [3]. Group 3: Industry Adoption - Nearly ten listed companies in the photovoltaic sector have announced plans to engage in polysilicon futures hedging, indicating a growing interest in utilizing these financial instruments [4]. - Despite the potential benefits, there are still few cases of companies effectively using polysilicon futures to mitigate current price decline risks, suggesting a need for further education and understanding of the futures market [4]. - The integration of futures and spot markets is crucial for companies to fully realize the benefits of the futures market [4]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Understanding the operational logic of the futures market is essential for companies to leverage its value in serving the real economy [5].