上证报中国证券网讯（记者 霍星羽）Choice数据显示，2025年有色金属（申万行业2021年版）板块整 体涨幅为88.21%，"夺冠"全市场。步入2026年，这场"有色盛宴"是否仍将延续？ 记者采访获悉，2026 年有色板块上行逻辑不变，但波动幅度、择时难度将加大。2026年国内外宏观环境仍总体利多有色， 铜、铝、镍和锡等品种，有望出现结构性牛市。2026年一季度有色板块或迎来"开门红"。 华鑫期货研 究所所长章孜海接受上证报记者采访时表示，有色金属有商品属性和金融属性，受到宏观面与供需基本 面的双重影响。 中信建投期货有色首席分析师江露表示，2026年美联储货币政策偏鸽，大概率进一步 渐进式降息，为有色市场提供偏多环境。 章孜海预计，下半年美联储或降息两次。国内，中央经济工 作会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。海内外宏观面形成共振，对风险 资产的影响偏积极。 在江露看来，贵金属价格正处于高位强势运行状态，且这种态势持续向有色板块 传导。基本面也为金属价格提供坚实支撑。需求端，"十五五"规划长期利好有色需求，"智能化、绿色 化"政策会推动新能源汽车、光伏、特高压等领域高速发展，有色 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy in 2026, emphasizing the need for policy optimization, enhanced fiscal management, and reform to ensure effective implementation [2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Optimization - The scale of fiscal expenditure is increasing, with general public budget expenditure expected to approach 30 trillion yuan in 2025 and exceed 30 trillion yuan in 2026, but its proportion relative to total social financing remains small [3]. - By the end of November 2025, the social financing scale reached 440.07 trillion yuan, and the broad money (M2) balance was 336.99 trillion yuan, indicating a need for improved efficiency and effectiveness of fiscal funds [3]. - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is projected to be around 4%, necessitating a focus on policy effectiveness and alignment between fiscal and monetary policies in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Debt Financing - Debt financing is crucial for supporting a more proactive fiscal policy, with a need for scientific evaluation and optimization of government bond types, including general bonds and special bonds [4]. - In 2025, local special bond issuance is expected to reach 4.4 trillion yuan, with total local debt issuance surpassing 10 trillion yuan and net financing exceeding 7.2 trillion yuan [4]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds and special bonds for capital replenishment of state-owned banks highlights the importance of effectively utilizing debt funds [4]. Group 3: Local Fiscal Autonomy - Enhancing local fiscal autonomy is essential for fiscal sustainability, with central government transfers to localities exceeding 10 trillion yuan annually from 2023 to 2025 [5]. - The structure of transfer payments needs optimization, reducing the proportion of special transfers and increasing general transfers to enhance local fiscal capacity [5]. Group 4: Fiscal Management - Effective fiscal management is increasingly important as fiscal revenues and expenditures grow, requiring a shift from simple revenue and expenditure management to a more comprehensive governance approach [6]. - The need for zero-based budgeting reform is emphasized to address the issues of rigid expenditure patterns and ensure that budget allocations reflect actual needs [7]. Group 5: Economic Stability and Reform - A more proactive fiscal policy is necessary to promote stable economic development, requiring a combination of effective markets and active government roles to stimulate market vitality [9]. - The need to enhance domestic demand and consumer spending is highlighted, with a focus on increasing disposable income to support consumption growth [9]. Group 6: Supply-Side Improvements - There is significant room for improvement in domestic supply to meet the evolving demands of consumer upgrades, necessitating continuous supply-side reforms [11]. - Innovation in supply is crucial for transforming potential demand into actual demand, with fiscal policy playing a supportive role in fostering technological and industrial innovation [12].

Group 1 - Multiple regions in China, including Shanghai, Fujian, and Yunnan, have initiated significant projects for 2026, aiming to "expand domestic demand" and "seize the beginning of the year" through project construction [1] - On January 5, Shandong Province issued the first batch of 2026 local government special bonds, indicating an earlier start to the issuance of new local government bonds compared to last year [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has approved a batch of major infrastructure projects with a total investment exceeding 400 billion yuan to accelerate project construction [1][2] Group 2 - Infrastructure investment is expected to be the primary driver of economic growth in 2026, with increased investment in infrastructure seen as a powerful policy tool to address insufficient effective demand [2] - As of January 5, 27 provinces and cities have announced plans to issue local government bonds in the first quarter, with a proposed issuance scale exceeding 2 trillion yuan, including over 670 billion yuan in new special bonds [2] - The estimated scale of new special bonds for this year is projected to be between 4.5 trillion yuan and 5 trillion yuan, with potential optimization in their use to support major projects and local debt [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance has not arranged for the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds in the first quarter of 2026, but the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a list of "two heavy" construction projects and a central budget investment plan totaling approximately 295 billion yuan [3] - More proactive fiscal policies are expected to accelerate infrastructure investment, with an estimated growth rate of around 5% for the year, supported by measures such as optimizing "two heavy" construction and issuing special bonds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in 2026 has officially commenced, with Shandong Province leading the way by issuing 72.381 billion yuan, marking the start of local debt issuance for the year [1]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - Shandong Province issued 72.381 billion yuan in local government bonds on January 5, 2026, making it the first province to do so this year [1]. - The issuance aims to address significant fiscal imbalances and support major project construction and old debt repayment through government bonds [1]. - The Ministry of Finance has pre-allocated part of the 2026 new local debt limit to facilitate early bond issuance, with expectations that the total issuance in the first quarter will exceed 2 trillion yuan [1][2]. Group 2: Debt Limit and Financing - The new local debt limit for 2026 is capped at 60% of the previous year's limit, which is set at 5.2 trillion yuan, resulting in a maximum of 3.12 trillion yuan for 2026 [1][2]. - In addition to the new debt limit, the Ministry of Finance has also allocated 2 trillion yuan for refinancing existing hidden debts, with most of this expected to be issued in the first half of the year [2]. Group 3: Project Financing and Economic Impact - The 72.381 billion yuan issued by Shandong includes 46.772 billion yuan in new special bonds directed towards over 400 major projects, such as infrastructure developments [3]. - The refinancing bonds amounting to 25.609 billion yuan are intended to replace existing hidden debts, indicating a proactive approach to managing local government debt [3][4]. - The early issuance of bonds is expected to facilitate the timely commencement of major projects, laying a solid foundation for economic growth in 2026 [3].

Core Insights - The implementation of policies to boost consumption is receiving significant attention, with a focus on ensuring that consumers feel the impact and that domestic demand is effectively stimulated [1][2] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The government plans to continue its proactive fiscal policy in 2026, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and the construction of a strong domestic market as a key focus area [2] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has shown significant results, with sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan and benefiting over 360 million people in 2025 [1][2] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, with the "old-for-new" policy contributing over 1 percentage point to this growth [1] Group 2: Financial Coordination - The government is optimizing the "old-for-new" policy by refining the support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms to enhance efficiency and effectiveness [2][3] - A total of 625 billion yuan in special long-term bonds has been allocated to support the "old-for-new" policy, aimed at meeting consumer demand during peak seasons like New Year and Spring Festival [4] - The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial, with measures such as personal consumption loans and service industry loan interest subsidies being implemented to stimulate consumption from both demand and supply sides [4][5]

2026.01. 05 本文字数：1470，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 2026年地方政府发债筹资拉开序幕。 根据山东省财政厅披露信息，2026年1月5日，山东省发行723.81亿元地方政府债券，而这是今年全 国首个发行地方政府债券的省份，也由此宣告2026年地方政府债券正式启动发行。 在地方财政收支矛盾较大背景下，地方政府重大项目建设及偿还旧债资金，愈加依赖通过发行政府债 券形式筹集资金。而为了尽早发挥地方政府债券资金对稳投资、扩内需、补短板的重要作用，推动 2026年经济平稳运行，去年底财政部已经提前下达了部分2026年新增地方政府债务限额，这也使得 地方像前些年一样，在1月就启动发债，以支持重大项目建设来稳投资稳经济，以及偿还旧债来缓释 债务风险。 从各方披露信息来看，2026年一季度地方政府债券发行规模预计会超过2万亿元。 根据企业预警通数据，截至目前已有四川、山东、江苏、云南、江西、湖南、广西、北京、吉林、安 徽、福建等 27个省市 披露了2026年一季度发债计划，发债总额约2万亿元。 按照全国人大常委会授权，提前下达地方的新增债务限额必须控制在当年新增地方政府债务限额的 60% ...

2026年一季度地方政府债券发行规模预计突破2万亿元 2026年地方政府发债筹资拉开序幕。 根据山东省财政厅披露信息，2026年1月5日，山东省发行723.81亿元地方政府债券，而这是今年全国首 个发行地方政府债券的省份，也由此宣告2026年地方政府债券正式启动发行。 在地方财政收支矛盾较大背景下，地方政府重大项目建设及偿还旧债资金，愈加依赖通过发行政府债券 形式筹集资金。而为了尽早发挥地方政府债券资金对稳投资、扩内需、补短板的重要作用，推动2026年 经济平稳运行，去年底财政部已经提前下达了部分2026年新增地方政府债务限额，这也使得地方像前些 年一样，在1月就启动发债，以支持重大项目建设来稳投资稳经济，以及偿还旧债来缓释债务风险。 从各方披露信息来看，2026年一季度地方政府债券发行规模预计会超过2万亿元。 按照全国人大常委会授权，提前下达地方的新增债务限额必须控制在当年新增地方政府债务限额的60% 以内。2025年新增地方政府债务限额为5.2万亿元，这意味着财政部提前下达2026年地方债务限额将不 能超过3.12万亿元。 财达证券常务副总经理胡恒松告诉第一财经，从过往实践来看，2023~2024年，提前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The government is optimizing the policy design and implementation of the "Two New" policy for 2026, focusing on boosting consumer spending and enhancing domestic demand through effective fiscal measures [1]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - In 2025, the "old-for-new" consumption policy led to sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people, demonstrating significant market recovery and consumer satisfaction [1]. - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, with the "old-for-new" policy contributing over 1 percentage point to this growth [1]. - The central economic work conference emphasized the continuation of proactive fiscal policies in 2026, with a focus on domestic demand and market strength [1]. Group 2: Policy Optimization - The "old-for-new" policy has been refined in 2026, focusing on key consumer goods such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters, while expanding subsidies for digital and smart products [2]. - The optimization aims to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal spending by targeting high-impact consumer goods and improving the overall implementation mechanism [2]. - Measures are in place to combat fraudulent claims and ensure that subsidies are effectively distributed [2]. Group 3: Financial Coordination and Support - The government plans to ensure balanced and orderly use of funds, with 62.5 billion yuan allocated for the first batch of 2026 to support the "old-for-new" policy during peak consumption periods [3]. - A coordinated approach between fiscal and monetary policies is emphasized to enhance the effectiveness of consumption-boosting measures [3]. - The collaboration between fiscal and financial policies aims to lower credit costs and increase the coverage of support measures, thereby stimulating consumer demand [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for effective implementation of consumption-boosting policies to enhance consumer experience and stimulate domestic demand [2][3] - The government plans to continue its proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on strengthening domestic markets and consumer spending as a primary objective [3] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has shown significant results, with sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan and benefiting over 360 million people in 2025 [2][3] Group 2 - The 2026 fiscal policy will prioritize optimizing the implementation of the "old-for-new" program, focusing on key consumer goods to maximize the impact of financial resources [3][4] - The government has allocated 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds to support the "old-for-new" policy, aiming to meet consumer demand during peak seasons like New Year and Spring Festival [5][6] - Coordination between fiscal and financial policies is crucial for enhancing the effectiveness of consumption-boosting measures, with a focus on lowering credit costs and increasing policy coverage [6]

国债期货月报 | 2026-01-04 财政供给预期升温，国债期货震荡走跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压 力不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上 更加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累， ...