德勤中国华南区主管合伙人欧振兴表示，香港新股市场的前景仍将在一定程度上受到宏观经济及地缘政 治因素影响，包括美国货币政策走向、全球资金配置动向，以及中国企业出海与扩大内需的政策取向。 与此同时，资本市场的持续改革与制度优化，将在提升香港市场整体竞争力、流动性及估值水平方面发 挥关键作用，并逐步改善新股市场的生态与表现。 他续指，市场近日就修订同股不同权公司上市要求、调整新股买卖单位等改革展开讨论，亦期望监管机 构能进一步检视双重主要上市及第二上市制度，深化港交所与东南亚证券交易所的合作，并建立更具针 对性的机制，便利海外企业来港上市。 智通财经APP获悉，12月18日，德勤中国资本市场服务部发布《中国内地及香港IPO市场 2025年回顾与 2026年前景展望》。资本市场服务部预测，在目前超过300宗上市申请个案的名单支持下，2026年全 年，香港新股市场将有约160只新股，融资不少于3000亿港元。预计其中将有7只新股，每只最少融资 100亿港元，其中包括内地龙头企业。除了有大量A+H股上市申请人外，科技、传媒及电讯、医疗、消 费、国际公司以及在美上市的中概股的上市项目也将成为市场关注的焦点。 德勤提及，美国 ...

作者：国开证券研究与发展部总经理李友军 二、资本市场在支持科技自立自强中仍存不足 科技创新内在的高风险、长周期与高度不确定性，要求金融体系在风险收益结构与资本定价机制上实现 精准适配。然而，我国长期存在的深层次结构性矛盾导致金融供给与创新需求错配，尤其是资本市场核 心功能未能充分发挥，制约了创新生态的良性发展。主要体现在以下几个方面：一是融资功能结构性失 衡。我国金融体系以风险偏好较低的间接融资为主，根据中国人民银行数据，从存量看，2025年10月末 非金融企业境内股票融资占社会融资规模的比重仅为2.77%，缺乏能够承担风险、愿意长期陪伴企业成 长的耐心资本，导致科创企业的资本金需求无法得到充分满足。二是价格发现功能部分失灵。由于对科 创企业的专业评估体系尚不成熟，尤其是对人力资本、知识产权等核心无形资产的估值定价体系尚不健 全，导致市场对科创企业真实价值的判断偏离，进而引发价值低估及融资困局。三是资源配置功能存在 失调。资本的短期逐利性与创新的长期战略性之间存在深层矛盾，在金融机构短期业绩考核机制助推 下，市场投机倾向被进一步强化，导致资本过度追逐商业模式创新等短期赛道，而对需要长期投入的基 础研究及关键核 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current environment is characterized as a transformative "Great Asset Management Era," driven by changes in monetary policy and capital market reforms [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to lead to a weaker US dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets and increasing global capital allocation to the Chinese market [1] - The domestic low interest rate environment will encourage residents to diversify their asset allocation from traditional savings to a broader range of financial assets [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - Ongoing reforms in the capital markets are leading to an increase in the proportion of direct financing within the total social financing scale, creating significant opportunities for the wealth management industry and direct financing market [1] - The development of a multi-layered and diversified financing system is becoming increasingly refined, further supporting the growth of the wealth management sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of Hainan Free Trade Port has transitioned from initial stages to a significant development phase, with the full island closure operation set for December 18, 2025, marking a historic milestone for the region's economic growth and capital market development [1][9]. Financing and Market Growth - Over the past five years, Hainan has achieved direct financing of 78.821 billion yuan, with equity financing at 26.299 billion yuan and bond financing at 52.522 billion yuan, significantly supporting enterprise transformation and internationalization [2]. - The total market capitalization of listed companies in Hainan reached 462.111 billion yuan, an 85% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with the number of companies valued over 10 billion yuan rising to 14 [2]. Capital Market Development - Hainan's capital market has seen a continuous improvement in its multi-layered system, with service efficiency on the rise, including the establishment of service bases by major stock exchanges and the creation of specialized boards for technology-oriented SMEs [2][6]. - A total of 106 mergers and acquisitions were completed, involving 80.5 billion yuan, enhancing core competitiveness through resource integration [2]. Industry Optimization and Innovation - More than 70% of listed companies are engaged in key sectors such as technological innovation and green development, contributing to a 30% increase in operating income to 811.517 billion yuan from 2021 to the third quarter of 2025 [3]. - The introduction of innovative financial products, including the first green rural revitalization bonds, has effectively met the needs of the real economy [6]. Shareholder Returns and Investor Engagement - Listed companies have increased their focus on shareholder returns, with total dividends reaching 5.789 billion yuan, an 86% increase from the previous five-year period, alongside share buybacks and stakeholder purchases [4]. - Investor protection mechanisms have been strengthened, with over 5,000 educational activities conducted, reaching more than 10 million investors [5]. Regulatory Environment and Risk Management - The Hainan Securities Regulatory Bureau has implemented strict regulatory measures, resulting in 137 regulatory actions and nearly 150 million yuan in penalties since 2021, aimed at maintaining market integrity [8]. - Risk monitoring and assessment mechanisms have been enhanced, with proactive measures taken to address potential risks in key sectors [8]. Future Outlook - With the full closure operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port, the capital market is expected to focus on high-standard development goals, enhancing the quality of listed companies and expanding cross-border asset management pilot businesses [9].

Core Viewpoint - The future reform of China's capital market aims to achieve three main goals: to become a driver of economic growth and industrial upgrading, to serve as an important platform for social wealth management, and to progress towards becoming a new international financial center and a hub for RMB-denominated asset allocation [2][4][5]. Group 1: Three Goals of Capital Market Reform - The foundational goal is to eliminate "danger zones" in the capital market, ensuring a zero-tolerance policy towards fraud and misconduct, supported by strict criminal penalties [4]. - The core goal is to accelerate the capital market's role as a driver of economic growth and a key platform for social wealth management, focusing on adjusting the structure of residents' asset allocation [4][5]. - The vision goal is to establish the capital market as a new international financial center, aiming to become the third-largest global financial hub after New York and London, with a target of increasing the proportion of foreign investors in the market to 10% by 2030 and 15% by 2035 [5]. Group 2: Key Areas for Reform - In the asset dimension, the focus is on improving the quality of listed companies, particularly by promoting high-growth tech and specialized enterprises to become the main body of listed firms [6]. - In the funding dimension, the emphasis is on enhancing market liquidity and attracting more long-term capital, with recent policies aimed at reducing investment risks for insurance funds in equity assets [6][7]. - In the institutional dimension, the goal is to increase market transparency and strengthen legal constraints, shifting from administrative penalties to a balanced approach of criminal and civil penalties, while enhancing investor protection [7].

2025南通投资大会暨上证多层次资本市场高质量发展大会现场。 会场图片均为 许泽宇 摄 ◎邱思雨 记者 仲茜 操子怡 12月16日上午，2025南通投资大会暨上证多层次资本市场高质量发展大会在江苏南通举行。本次大会由 南通市委、市政府和上海证券报社共同主办。 2006年，南通与江苏高投集团合作设立首只创投基金，开启资本联动的序章，如今南通已形成总规模超 1200亿元的基金集群。今年，南通投资大会已成功举办至第四届。此次大会旨在充分发挥政府投资基金 的引导和撬动作用，通过市场化方式吸引社会资本、产业资本和金融资本参与地方产业发展，推动资本 与产业深度融合。 江海潮涌 经济体量稳步攀升 南通滨江临海、紧靠上海，地处沿江沿海经济带的重要节点。今年前三季度，南通全市实现地区生产总 值9788.9亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.4%。2025年，南通预计全市地区生产总值将达约1.3万亿 元。 南通市委书记吴新明在致辞中表示，南通始终把基金投资作为链接资本与产业、创新的重要纽带，以诚 意筑牢价值基石，以包容激发投资活力，以协同厚植资本沃土，不断完善金融支持政策，激发市场、企 业投资活力，加快构建载体、资源、产业联动的资 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that capital market reform is a crucial element in China's economic transformation by 2025, impacting both investor wealth expectations and the financing efficiency of innovative enterprises [2] - The discussion highlights the need for fundamental institutional innovation to rebuild market confidence and address deep-seated contradictions within the capital market ecosystem [2] Group 2 - The issue of "one-share dominance" and the controversy surrounding major shareholder reductions are significant, with 4,000 out of 5,400 listed companies being privately controlled, and 126 private enterprises having original shareholders holding over 90% [3][4] - There is a notable concern regarding the potential market pressure from major shareholder reductions, with 1,979 companies disclosing reduction plans amounting to 400 billion, which could lead to a total potential sell-off of 21.5 trillion if 20% of the main board's market value is reduced [4] - The discussion also touches on the IPO system design, noting that high-tech companies in China often skip multiple financing rounds, leading to concentrated shareholding, unlike the gradual dilution seen in U.S. companies [4][6] Group 3 - The current financing structure shows a significant imbalance, with capital market financing at approximately 1 trillion compared to 20 trillion in bank loans, indicating a need for reform to enhance direct financing [8] - The expected total dividend payout in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is projected to exceed 2 trillion by 2025, signaling a gradual return of the market to its investment function [8] - Institutional reforms are proposed, including legal amendments to impose severe penalties for fraudulent activities, the development of institutional investors, and improvements in civil compensation mechanisms [8][9] Group 4 - The role of institutional investors is under scrutiny, with calls for aligning management fees with performance rather than fixed fees, which are seen as unreasonable [9] - The introduction of new policies to encourage insurance funds to enter the market is viewed as a critical step in improving the funding structure [9] - The overall restructuring of China's capital market ecosystem is deemed necessary to address issues from the asset side, funding side, and institutional side [9]

Investment Rating - The non-bank financial industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" [2] Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference has set the tone for capital market reforms, emphasizing support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises. The implementation of the "1+N" policy framework is accelerating, which includes reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, promoting mergers and acquisitions, and optimizing public fund fee structures [3][6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a draft regulation to standardize fund sales behavior, aiming to return the industry to its core functions. This includes strict guidelines on promotional language, performance displays, and transparency in fees to protect investor rights [6][3] Market Performance - During the period from December 8 to December 14, major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.34%, the CSI 300 down 0.08%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.74%. The average daily trading volume in A-shares was 1.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.14% week-on-week [3][12] - As of December 14, the margin trading balance was 2.50 trillion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.79% [12][15] Industry Data Tracking 1) Market Performance and Scale: The average daily trading volume in A-shares reached 1.95 trillion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 15.14% [12] 2) Credit Business: As of December 14, the market had 2,938.59 million shares pledged, accounting for 3.58% of the total share capital [12][15] 3) Fund Issuance: In November 2025, 530.52 billion units of new funds were issued, with a total of 145 funds launched, representing a 34.09% decrease from the previous month [12][19] 4) Investment Banking: In November 2025, the equity underwriting scale was 525.75 billion yuan, with IPO amounts at 101.88 billion yuan and refinancing at 423.88 billion yuan [12][19] 5) Bond Market: The total price index of bonds decreased by 2.23% since the beginning of the year, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.84%, up 23.19 basis points year-to-date [12][13]

Group 1 - The core concept of "stock market narrative" emphasizes the importance of creating a positive public opinion environment and effectively communicating policies to stabilize market expectations [1][2] - The operation logic of the capital market involves not only the flow of funds and trading of assets but also the transmission of information and the construction of investor confidence [1] - The Chinese economy faces both old problems and new challenges, but the long-term supportive conditions and fundamental trends for economic growth remain unchanged [1][2] Group 2 - The current capital market reform focuses on deepening investment and financing reforms, aiming to clarify key areas of reform to the market [2] - Initiatives include fostering high-quality listed companies, enhancing the attractiveness of long-term investment environments, and implementing stricter regulations against financial fraud and market manipulation [2] - Effective communication of accurate and objective "stock market narratives" can reduce the space for false information and improve market transparency [2] Group 3 - The "stock market narrative" requires collaboration among listed companies, industry organizations, and mainstream media to create a positive public opinion environment [3] - A collective effort is necessary to ensure that market expectations are stable and investor confidence is strong, which are essential for the high-quality development of the capital market [3]

预计未来改革主线将围绕持续增强市场内在稳定性、提高制度包容性和适应性、提升监管执法效能等方面发力。 近日，证监会在传达学习中央经济工作会议精神时，研究部署了资本市场的贯彻落实举措，勾勒出未来一段时间资本市场的改革路线图。可以看出，改革主线是防 风险、强监管、促高质量发展，主要任务是持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革，意在为经济高质量发展和"十五五"良好开局贡献力量。 中原证券首席经济学家邓淑斌认为，当前资本市场改革呈现出"融资更包容、投资更长期、监管更精准"的政策脉络，投融资综合改革具有长期性和重要性，预计未 来改革主线将围绕持续增强市场内在稳定性、提高制度包容性和适应性、提升监管执法效能等方面发力，不断提升资本市场吸引力与竞争力。 开源证券副总裁、研究所所长孙金钜指出，深化投融资综合改革、服务新质生产力发展是顺应时代之变的重要举措，体现了监管层对全球格局重塑和科技革命加速 的深刻洞察。一方面，国际资本在寻求稳健与均衡配置的过程中，对中国资产正进行持续的价值重估；另一方面，AI、生物医药等新质生产力领域具有"投入高、 风险大、回报周期长"特征，需要"更大规模的耐心资本"和更包容的融资环境。 对于下一步的改革任务， ...