Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,139 points, up 111 points or 0.46% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index outperformed the main index, rising by 0.61% [2] - The total turnover on the main board reached HKD 324 billion, a 31.3% increase from the previous day, marking the first time since May 12 that it exceeded HKD 300 billion [2] Group 2: Trade Policy and Economic Sentiment - The U.S. government has delayed new reciprocal tariff measures until August 1, with adjustments to tariff rates for various countries, leading to increased market volatility [4] - The probability of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell resigning has risen from 14% to 19%, reflecting market sensitivity to political news [4] - Investors are advised to monitor upcoming CPI, PPI data, and bank earnings, which will guide market expectations regarding interest rate policies [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Lianlian Digital (2598.HK) - Lianlian Digital is a digital payment service provider primarily serving small and medium-sized merchants, especially in the cross-border e-commerce sector, with a total of 5.9 million merchants served as of December 2024 [6] - The company holds 65 payment licenses and operates in over 100 countries, supporting transactions in more than 130 currencies [6] - The total payment volume (TPV) for the company is projected to reach HKD 3.3 trillion in 2024, a 65% year-on-year increase, with digital payment services accounting for 88% of total revenue [7] - The company has achieved profitability, with total revenue of HKD 1.31 billion in 2024, a 28% increase, and an adjusted net profit of HKD 79 million [7] - Lianlian Digital has obtained a Virtual Asset Trading Platform (VATP) license, allowing it to engage in regulated activities related to securities trading and automated trading services [8] - The company plans to issue a stablecoin, targeting cross-border trade payments, which could significantly enhance its service offerings [8]

金十数据7月14日讯，欧盟高级官员表示，欧盟正寻求深化与印度和亚太地区其他国家的贸易协定。欧 盟竞争事务主管Teresa Ribera周一说："我们需要探索在太平洋地区与其他国家的合作能走多远、走多 深，比如与印度正在进行的这些对话就相当重要。"她指的是与印度的自由贸易谈判预计将在年底前完 成。此番言论正值特朗普在关税谈判最后阶段加大施压力度之际。Ribera暗示欧盟将继续谈判，但若关 税真正落地，集团将全力开拓其他市场。 欧盟官员称将深化与亚洲国家的贸易协议以应对美国关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The EU is currently in critical negotiations with the US regarding tariffs, with President Trump threatening a 30% tariff on EU products, prompting a response from EU leaders who are seeking to negotiate rather than retaliate aggressively [1][4]. Group 1: EU's Response to US Tariff Threats - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the postponement of retaliatory tariffs on $210 billion worth of US products, originally set to take effect on July 15, to early August, emphasizing a preference for negotiation [1][4]. - Von der Leyen stated that the EU will continue to prepare additional countermeasures while prioritizing negotiations with the US [1][7]. - The EU is planning to engage with countries like Canada and Japan to coordinate responses to the US tariffs [3][4]. Group 2: Internal EU Reactions and Criticism - Some European business organizations and politicians criticized von der Leyen's approach as weak, suggesting that failure to respond effectively to Trump's tariffs would be a significant setback [1][4]. - French President Macron expressed strong dissatisfaction with Trump's threats and urged the EU to prepare credible countermeasures if negotiations fail [4][9]. - Italian officials and agricultural organizations warned that the proposed tariffs could have devastating effects on Italy's food exports, estimating direct losses of around €2.3 billion [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Negotiation Dynamics - Germany, being the largest exporter to the US, reported a 7.7% decline in exports to the US in May, highlighting the economic impact of the tariff threats [5][7]. - EU leaders are divided on whether to pursue a quick trade agreement similar to the UK's or to continue negotiations for a better outcome [4][9]. - EU officials believe that Trump's threats may be a negotiation tactic rather than a definitive policy change, with expectations that a reasonable solution can still be reached [4][5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. stock market and its recovery dynamics, influenced by tariff negotiations and macroeconomic factors. Core Points and Arguments 1. The U.S. stock market has experienced one of the fastest recoveries in its history, with indices reaching new highs in less than three months following a significant drop due to tariff negotiations [1][4] 2. The non-U.S. global index has reached historical highs, indicating a potential market and economic model shift, reminiscent of significant changes observed in the early 1980s [3][5] 3. Historical patterns suggest that the non-U.S. global index peaks often precede peaks in the U.S. stock market, highlighting the interconnectedness of global markets [3][5] 4. The U.S. stock market's performance is increasingly influential on the non-U.S. global index, suggesting that the current market dynamics are indicative of a broader economic transition [3][5] 5. The "Big America" bill passed by Congress is expected to significantly increase the U.S. government's debt burden, potentially leading to long-term economic instability [9][10] 6. The U.S. budget deficit is projected to remain around 7%, which is unusually high for a peacetime economy, raising concerns about future economic stability [10] 7. Despite the long-term concerns, the current liquidity conditions and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may support risk asset prices in the short term [11][12] 8. Investor sentiment is complex, with high stock holdings contrasting with bearish sentiment in surveys, indicating a potential disconnect in market psychology [13][15] 9. The potential for a technical rebound in the U.S. dollar is noted, as it has reached a critical support level after a prolonged period of weakness [19][20] 10. The worst-case scenario of the tariff war is believed to have passed, although uncertainty remains high due to ongoing negotiations and potential policy changes from the Trump administration [21][22] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The historical context of U.S. stock market cycles suggests that the current market may be entering a more volatile phase, with significant implications for investment strategies [6][7] 2. The analysis of the Chinese stock market indicates a downward trend, with limited foreign investment opportunities, which could impact global capital flows [8] 3. The discussion emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between long-term economic views and short-term trading strategies, particularly in light of current market conditions [15][26] 4. The tightening of monetary conditions in Hong Kong and its implications for market sentiment are also highlighted, suggesting a regional impact on investment flows [23][24] This summary encapsulates the key insights and implications from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and potential future developments.

墨西哥经济部长Ebrard：美国关税不公平。 美国、墨西哥于周五成立了双边工作组。 墨西哥正在谈判以避免美国的关税。 ...

Core Insights - The EU and the US are working towards reaching a temporary trade agreement in the coming days, with automotive and agricultural tariff levels being key points of contention [1] Group 1 - The automotive tariffs are a significant issue in the negotiations between the EU and the US [1] - Agricultural tariffs are also a critical factor in the ongoing trade discussions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian Finance Ministry official Melo indicated that there is room for negotiation with the United States following Trump's announcement of tariffs, suggesting potential diplomatic engagement despite the tensions [1] Group 1 - Brazil may consider imposing tariffs on imports as a retaliatory measure, although this action has not yet been confirmed [1]

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - On July 7, Trump extended the suspension of reciprocal tariffs originally set to expire on July 9, notifying 21 countries of tariffs ranging from 20% to 40% effective August 1[3] - The tariffs primarily target Asian and African countries, with Japan and South Korea facing a 25% tariff, while Laos and Myanmar face a 40% tariff[3] - Compared to the April 2 tariff list, the new tariffs show minimal changes, with Cambodia and Sri Lanka receiving lower tariffs by 13% and 14% respectively[4] Group 2: Trade Negotiation Objectives - The main goal of U.S. trade negotiations is to reduce tariffs imposed by other countries on U.S. goods, particularly in agriculture, energy, and automotive sectors[5] - The U.S. has made progress with countries like the UK, which agreed to increase beef imports from 1,000 tons to 13,000 tons, while the U.S. will reduce auto tariffs to 10-25%[5] - Ongoing negotiations with Japan have stalled due to strict agricultural protection policies, particularly regarding rice imports[5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the issuance of tariff letters, the U.S. stock market reacted mildly, with a less than 1% drop on July 7 and a subsequent recovery on July 9[9] - The market's sensitivity to tariff negotiations has decreased since the easing of U.S. tariff policies from April to June, indicating a shift towards fundamental trading[9] - Future developments in tariff policies and their impact on the U.S. economy and corporate sectors will be closely monitored, especially with upcoming CPI data releases[9]

Core Viewpoint - The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, stated that negotiations with the United States regarding tariffs have not yielded any results, and the EU does not wish to take retaliatory measures [1] Group 1 - The EU is currently engaged in tariff negotiations with the United States [1] - No progress has been made in the ongoing discussions about tariffs [1] - The EU aims to avoid implementing any retaliatory actions in response to the tariff negotiations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overseas market is affected by the hawkish signals from key figures of the Federal Reserve, and the market's over - pricing of interest rate cuts may lead to fluctuations. The repeated Trump tariffs also add difficulties to subsequent negotiations. In the domestic market, the CPI turned positive in June 2025, while the negative value of PPI expanded, squeezing industrial enterprise profits. The continuous stable - growth policies and loose monetary policies cause the A - share market to fluctuate in sector rotation. The market still needs time to adjust, and the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the dumbbell strategy remaining unchanged [2][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 227,000, lower than the expected 235,000 and the previous value of 232,000, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. Different Federal Reserve officials have different views on monetary policy. Some suggest a higher probability of interest rate hikes, while others support two interest rate cuts this year. The market is currently pricing in interest rate cuts, but there may be short - term fluctuations. In terms of tariffs, the US - Vietnam tariff negotiation has changed from 11% to 20%, which may have a negative impact on the US's negotiations with other countries. Overnight, the US dollar index rose slightly, the short - end US Treasury yield rebounded, gold closed up, crude oil fell, the three major US stock indexes rose slightly, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated slightly [1][4]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.22%. The market showed a pattern of index rebound but stock polarization. The banking sector contributed significantly to the index, and the brokerage and real estate sectors continued to support the market in the afternoon. Only some sectors such as photovoltaic and rare earths showed performance, and there was no sustainability in sector trends. Among the primary sectors, real estate, petroleum and petrochemical, steel, and non - bank finance led the gains, while automobile, media, military, and electronics led the losses. There were 2,945 rising stocks and 2,278 falling stocks in the whole market [2][5]. 1.3 Important News - **Federal Reserve Officials' Statements**: Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed their views. Some believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be clear until the end of the year, and the US fiscal deficit may become a financial stability issue in the future. Others consider implementing interest rate cuts in the fall and believe there will be two cuts this year [6]. - **Regulatory Proposals**: The Federal Reserve proposed to relax the supervision of large - scale banks [8]. - **Global Trade Progress**: The US Secretary of Commerce will visit Japan next week. The EU - US tariff negotiation is accelerating, with the automobile industry being the EU's "red line". Brazil may request the cancellation of tariffs, and Chile seeks exemption from US copper tariffs. Vietnam disagreed with the tariff rate announced by Trump [8]. - **China - related News**: China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation is fully completed and will sign the protocol within this year. The Ministry of Finance excludes EU enterprises from participating in medical device government procurement projects worth over 45 million RMB. The Ministry of Commerce has launched a special campaign against the smuggling of strategic minerals exports and is in close communication with the US on economic and trade issues [8][9]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - Pay attention to the possible fluctuations caused by the market's over - pricing of interest rate cuts due to the hawkish signals from key Federal Reserve figures. The repeated Trump tariffs make subsequent negotiations more difficult. In the domestic market, due to the situation of CPI and PPI and the continuous policies, the A - share market fluctuates in sector rotation. The market needs time to adjust, and the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the dumbbell strategy remaining unchanged [10]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The report provides the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change ratios, basis, and other information of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [12]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: It presents the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading amount, trading amount changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other data of different futures contracts, as well as the positions of the top 20 members [13]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The report shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price change ratios, trading amounts, and other information of various indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index. It also provides the performance of different sectors, including upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, large - scale finance, and public utility sectors [36]. - **Market Style Impact**: The influence of different market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, and stability) on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index is analyzed, including the number of stocks, weights, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [37][38]. - **Valuation and Other Indicators**: The valuation and historical quantile data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors are presented, as well as information on market average daily trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading amount changes, risk - return ratio, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount [41][43][45]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations and the SHIBOR interest rate level [51][52][53].