Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing economic growth and expanding domestic demand in 2026, which marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with key policies aimed at supporting technology innovation, stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, and promoting consumption and investment [1][2]. Economic Policy Initiatives - Various ministries are implementing proactive macroeconomic policies, including enhancing economic monitoring, improving policy tools, and ensuring smooth policy transitions between 2025 and 2026 [2]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 will be more active, with an expanded fiscal spending plan, optimized government bond tools, and improved transfer payment efficiency to enhance local financial autonomy [2]. - The People's Bank of China will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, with expectations of a 25-50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio [3][4]. Consumption and Investment Promotion - The government aims to boost consumption through practical measures, including optimizing the trade-in policy for consumer goods and enhancing service consumption [7]. - Investment will be stabilized through government funding, including the issuance of new local government special bonds and increased central budget investments [8]. - A total of approximately 295 billion yuan has been allocated for early 2026 projects, with significant infrastructure projects approved, totaling over 400 billion yuan [8]. Real Estate and Stock Market Stability - The focus for 2026 will be on stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies, including inventory reduction and optimizing supply [12]. - Recent adjustments in housing policies in major cities aim to support both rigid and improved housing demand, with expectations of further easing measures [12]. - The central bank is also working on mechanisms to mitigate financial risks in key areas, ensuring stability in capital markets [13]. Emerging Industries Development - The government is prioritizing the enhancement of technological innovation capabilities in industries, with a focus on sectors such as integrated circuits, new materials, and aerospace [10][11]. - A new venture capital fund has been established to support investments in "hard technology" sectors, with an expected investment scale exceeding one trillion yuan [10]. Overall Economic Growth Projections - GDP growth for 2026 is projected to be around 5%, with a broadening fiscal deficit and an increase in special bonds to support economic activities [3][4]. - The emphasis will be on combining short-term policies with long-term structural reforms to enhance domestic demand and economic resilience [9].

"十五五"规划专题 投 资 策 略 2025 年 1 月 13 日 "十五五"规划：循迹·探新——鉴往知来的产业 脉络与机遇航图 "十五五"规划专题报告 投资要点： 专 题 策 略 分析师：包冬青 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340520010001 电话：0769-26628039 邮箱： baodongqing@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：叶子沛 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340525070001 电话：0769-22119267 邮箱：yezipei@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：熊越 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340524080001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱：xiongyue@dgzq.com.cn 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：曹君瑞 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522090001 电话：0769-22119463 邮箱：caojunrui@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：费小平 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340518010002 电话：07 ...

专题：第50届清华大学中国与世界经济论坛 第50届清华大学中国与世界经济论坛于1月13日在线上播出。 专题：第50届清华大学中国与世界经济论坛 第50届清华大学中国与世界经济论坛于1月13日在线上播出。 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌表示，扩大内需除了要靠政府的力量，更主要的还是 要靠市场的力量，得让老百姓买房能算过来账，让企业投资能算过来账。 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌表示，扩大内需除了要靠政府的力量，更主要的还是 要靠市场的力量，得让老百姓买房能算过来账，让企业投资能算过来账。 "我觉得从政策工具上来讲，影响面最大，也最能发挥作用的还是要把利率给降下去。"他说。 "我觉得从政策工具上来讲，影响面最大，也最能发挥作用的还是要把利率给降下去。"他说。 张斌表示，扩大内需除了要靠政府的力量，更主要的还是要靠市场的力量，得让老百姓买房能算过来 账，让企业投资能算过来账。无论是老百姓买房，还是企业投资，算得过来账，我觉得从政策工具上来 讲，影响面最大，也最能发挥作用的还是要把利率给降下去。 他指出，利率下降，就是帮助大家降低购房的成本，投资的成本，一方面把收益的预期改善上去，一方 面 ...

"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"是2026年经济工作的核心抓手。在中央政策框架指引下，各地结合 区域发展实际，推出一系列针对性强、落地性好的地方版扩内需举措。近日，多个省份召开了2026年 的"新年第一会"，加紧部署以实现经济良好开局。 大力提振消费 2026年"两新"政策已经于2025年末正式公布。2025年12月30日，国家发展改革委、财政部联合印发了 《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，进一步优化"两新"政策制度设计和 实施方式。与此同时，国家发展改革委会同财政部，已向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特 别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划。 在中央政策框架指引下，各地结合区域发展实际，推出一系列针对性强、落地性好的地方版扩内需举 措。 近日，多个省份召开了2026年的"新年第一会"，加紧部署以实现经济良好开局。 河南省政府近日举行新闻发布会，介绍河南省《推动2026年第一季度经济发展实现良好开局若干政策措 施》的具体内容和有关情况，会议强调将积极适应消费结构变化，持续挖掘培育消费新增长点，把巨大 的消费潜力充分释放出来。今年还将开展系列促消费活动，例如，将举办"乐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has set a strategic goal to fully establish a high-level socialist market economic system by 2035, emphasizing the urgency and significance of this objective [1] Group 1: Characteristics of the High-Level Socialist Market Economic System - The system should feature more effective and efficient resource allocation [1] - It should foster a fairer and more dynamic market environment [1] - Protection of market entities must be ensured, emphasizing equal participation of various ownership economies in market competition [1] - A unified national market must be constructed, requiring fair and unified foundational rules and market supervision [1] Group 2: Challenges in Achieving the Economic System - The complexity and difficulty of achieving this goal stem from unreasonable factors in current production relations, including external uncertainties and risks in key technology areas [3] - The process of optimizing industrial structure is challenging, with difficulties in risk identification and effective investment control [3] - A unified and open competitive market system has not yet been fully established, with persistent barriers and challenges in market access [4] - The relationship between an effective market and an active government needs precise handling, as excessive government intervention can disrupt market dynamics [5] - Continuous reform of state-owned enterprises is crucial, as many face inefficiencies and lack innovation, while private enterprises encounter significant barriers [6] - Income distribution issues complicate the expansion of domestic demand, necessitating reforms to ensure equitable income growth [7] Group 3: Importance of Institutional Opening - A high-level socialist market economic system requires a steady expansion of institutional opening, aligning with global modernization trends [8] - Historical achievements in China's reform and opening up highlight the importance of further advancing institutional opening [8] - The urgency of expanding institutional opening is underscored by the current critical period in China's modernization efforts [9] Group 4: Major Relationships to Manage - The relationship between technological innovation and industrial upgrading must be synergized to promote a modern industrial system [10] - The balance between government and market roles is essential for effective economic governance [11] - Efficiency and fairness must be coordinated to ensure both economic growth and equitable distribution [12] - The focus on economic development must align with high-quality growth objectives [12] - The interplay between domestic and international markets is crucial for sustainable modernization [12] - The relationship between the real economy and the virtual economy should be complementary [12] - Urban-rural and regional disparities must be addressed to achieve balanced development [13] - The relationship between state-owned and private enterprises should be collaborative, recognizing both as integral to the socialist economic framework [13]

记者丨 王峰 编辑丨张星 1月7日起，人民日报头版重要位置刊发系列署名"钟才平"的文章，截至1月12日已刊发6篇。这 是"钟才平"这个名字第一次出现在人民日报上。 专家指出，"钟才平"系列文章具有风向标意义，特别是有强烈的现实指导性。 "钟才平"系列文章为何此时刊发，刊发的内容有何新意，刊发的目的是什么？弄懂这几个重大 问题，对于做好2026年经济工作意义重大。 从"钟才文"到"钟才平" 1月7日，人民日报头版重要位置刊发署名"钟才平"的文章。截至1月12日已刊发6篇，主题分别 是"因地制宜做好经济工作""向新向优发展，中国经济向好""发挥政策集成效应，提升宏观经 济治理效能""统筹促消费和扩投资，建设强大国内市场""以惠民生为牵引，打开发展新空 间""持续扩大开放，为世界提供新机遇"。这些文章涉及经济工作的重要原则和重点领域。 "钟才平"文章为何在2026年开年推出？ 近年来我国价格水平在低位运行。尽管近期出现积极变化，但回升基础尚不牢固，CPI同比增 速已连续两年在0附近波动，PPI连续三年负增长，GDP平减指数连续十个季度为负。 从首篇"钟才平"文章《因地制宜做好经济工作》便可看出，其直接点题"三大针对 ...

首先，春季行情继续演绎。 2026年一开局，市场便连续放量上行，原因在于市场对扩大内需的战略方针抱有期待，对"十五五"的开门红有所企盼。 从实际情况看，股票市场的成交金额出现连续放大的趋势，显示增量资金正在集中入场。成长性行业继续表现领先，体现投资者风险偏好提升，资金进攻 欲望较强的市场特征。以上各种信号与传统的春季行情的特征较为相符，并且已经处于快速上行阶段，热点或有进一步的扩散。 其次，周一两市再次上涨，量能放大。 沪指高开后，一路震荡反弹，收盘于全天高点附近，与5天均线的乖离率有所加大。深圳成指表现更强，延5 天均线不断上移重心。两市成交金额超过3.6 万亿元，较上个交易日有所增加。当天市场热点主要集中在TMT和军工行业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技 股领涨。从运行节奏看，沪指完成小双底形态，正在向前期高点挑战。沪指分别于2025年11月下旬和12月中旬向下调整，止跌的位置基本相。随后进入了 持续反弹的进程，目前已经越过了小"双底"形态的目标位，正在挑战更高的点位。未来需要关同，形态类似于"双底"注量价配合的状况。 风险提示： 国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai is implementing systematic measures to boost consumption and expand domestic demand, focusing on optimizing supply and expanding consumption to promote the development of the service industry and consumer interaction [1] Group 1: Measures and Focus Areas - The Shanghai government has introduced 28 specific measures across six key sectors: finance, information services, transportation, cultural and entertainment, life services, and inspection and certification [1] - The measures aim to create a sustainable consumption ecosystem by addressing not only the availability of consumption but also the willingness, capability, and quality of consumption [1][2] Group 2: Economic Context and Growth - Service consumption has become a crucial engine for economic growth, with service industry value added growing by 5.9% and retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5% from January to November, both surpassing national averages [2] - Despite growth, there are bottlenecks in the service consumption sector, such as difficulties in accessing cultural and entertainment services, diverse needs in healthcare and elderly care, and insufficient financial products to meet new demands [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The measures emphasize a dual approach of optimizing supply and driving demand, addressing key bottlenecks that restrict consumption potential [4] - In the financial sector, measures include enhancing personal consumer finance services and providing financial support to businesses and infrastructure to stimulate quality supply [4] Group 4: Quality Assurance and Consumer Confidence - The measures propose strengthening brand certification, improving standard systems, and enhancing inspection services to ensure high-quality supply, which is essential for consumer confidence [5] - When consumers can easily identify and trust high-quality services, they are more likely to spend on better experiences, thereby pushing the service industry to improve standards and quality [5] Group 5: Cultural and Entertainment Sector Initiatives - The measures aim to stimulate innovation in the cultural and entertainment sectors by enhancing supply and leveraging the economic impact of events, such as the successful exhibition at the Shanghai Museum that attracted over 2.77 million visitors and generated significant revenue [6][8] - Initiatives include supporting high-quality exhibitions, developing independent event IPs, and promoting collaboration between cultural resources and tourism products [8] Group 6: Support and Implementation Framework - A robust support system has been established to ensure the effective implementation of the measures, including reforms, financial support, talent cultivation, and enhanced monitoring [10] - The government plans to coordinate support policies with environmental improvements to foster a conducive atmosphere for sustained consumption growth [11]

2026年，相关政策将在原有基础上进一步优化。一方面，优化个人消费贷款贴息，降低居民购 买大额商品、升级服务体验的利息成本，促进潜在消费需求的释放，将消费意愿转化为现实的 消费能力。另一方面，加大对服务业经营主体的贷款贴息力度，降低经营性融资成本，稳定并 扩大市场优质服务供给。这二者相辅相成，有支付能力的需求催生高品质的供给，而优质的供 给又进一步激发和满足新的消费需求，从而形成良性循环，增强内需对经济增长的拉动作用。 在扩投资方面，政策的核心是实施一整套降低市场主体融资成本的组合式工具。具体而言，将 实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策，设立民间投资专项担保计划，建立支持民营企业债券风险分担 机制以及优化设备更新贷款财政贴息等多项措施。这些政策工具相互配合，从信贷获取、债券 融资、担保增信及设备投资等多个维度，全方位降低企业的融资门槛与综合财务成本，从而有 效激发投资意愿与活力。 企业稳则就业稳，就业稳则居民收入预期稳，收入稳则消费信心与能力稳。这一传导链条清晰 地揭示，对投资端的政策支持，效能最终会层层传导至消费端，为消费的持续增长提供最根本 的源头活水。中小微企业贷款贴息正是稳就业、保市场主体的关键之举。通过财政 ...

2025年中央经济工作会议要求，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 落实中央经济工作会议精神，不久前召开的全国金融系统工作会议明确，要继续实施好适度宽松的货币 政策，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。 丰富消费金融产品供给 中央经济工作会议把"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"摆在2026年经济工作重点任务的首位，并提 出"深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划"。 提振消费需要金融体系提供全方位支持，以激发消费潜力、优化消费供给并培育新兴消费模式。近日， 商务部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合印发《关于加强商务和金融协同 更大力度提振消费的通 知》，围绕商品消费、新型消费、消费场景、县域消费等领域部署了多条政策措施，进一步丰富消费金 融产品和服务。 紧扣中央经济工作会议部署，各金融机构结合自身优势，进一步明确信贷支持举措，着力促消费、扩内 需。例如，建设银行提出，加快升级产品服务体系，深入推进消费金融专项行动，更好满足人民群众多 样化、差异化金融需求。中国银行表示，将积极配合实施好提振消费专项行动和城乡居民增收计划，全 方位满足居民多元消费需求。 ...