国债期货日报 2025/9/29 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 端在期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 85459 | 107.660 | -0.01% T主力成交量 | | 3714↑ | | | 68631 TF主力收盘价 | 105.485 | -0.04% TF主力成交量 | | 8400↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.326 | -0.02% TS主力成交量 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The new policy financial tool, with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aims to support project capital and stimulate effective investment in the economy [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively promoting the new policy financial tool to ensure funds are allocated to specific projects [2]. - Various provinces have begun training sessions to align projects with the new financial tool, indicating a proactive approach to capitalize on this opportunity [2]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The new policy financial tool will focus on key areas such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, infrastructure in consumer sectors, green and low-carbon transition, agriculture, transportation, and municipal and industrial parks [3]. - The tool is expected to address the issue of insufficient capital for project construction, thereby enhancing investment in these critical sectors [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - If the 500 billion yuan financial tool is implemented in the third quarter, it could potentially lead to an expansion of broad credit by approximately 4.4 trillion yuan [4]. - The physical workload generated by this tool could increase infrastructure investment by about 2 percentage points within the year [4]. - The financial tool is projected to leverage investments up to 6 trillion yuan, which would represent 24.4% of the total infrastructure investment in 2024 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is implementing a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at supplementing project capital, promoting effective investment, and ensuring stable economic development [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - In August, key economic indicators showed fluctuations, but overall, the economy remained stable with high-quality development being advanced [1] - The added value of major industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew by 8.1% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [2] - The profit growth of industrial enterprises improved significantly, with profits turning from a decline of 1.7% in the first seven months to a growth of 0.9% from January to August, and a monthly growth of 20.4% in August [2] Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - The effectiveness of policies is evident, showcasing resilience and pressure resistance, with retail sales of old-for-new products maintaining rapid growth [3] - The retail volume of new energy vehicles increased by over 20% year-on-year in the first eight months, while service retail sales grew by 5.1% [3] - Manufacturing investment rose by 5.1% in the first eight months, with significant growth in information services and aerospace manufacturing investments [3] Group 3: External Trade - In August, the total import and export volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative growing by 12.8% [3] - The diversification of trade continues to show positive results, indicating a robust external trade environment [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The NDRC plans to continue implementing macro policies and enhance economic monitoring and forecasting to adapt to changing circumstances [3] - There is confidence in maintaining stable and healthy economic development and achieving annual targets as policy effects are fully realized [3]

Economic Performance - In August, China's industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 5.6%, and retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.4%, indicating a marginal weakening in economic indicators compared to the previous month [1] - The profit growth of industrial enterprises improved significantly, with profits for the first eight months turning from a decline of 1.7% to a growth of 0.9%, and a monthly increase of 20.4% in August compared to a decline of 1.5% in July [2] Supply-Side Analysis - The manufacturing and service sectors showed stable growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 8.1% and 9.3% respectively in August, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [1] - Key sectors such as integrated circuits, aerospace equipment, industrial robots, civilian drones, and new energy vehicles maintained rapid growth [1] Demand-Side Insights - The consumption sector demonstrated resilience, with retail sales of new energy vehicles growing over 20% year-on-year in the first eight months, and service retail sales increasing by 5.1% [2] - Manufacturing investment rose by 5.1% in the first eight months, with significant growth in information services, aerospace, and computer equipment manufacturing investments [2] Policy and Financial Tools - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is implementing new policy financial tools aimed at supporting emerging industries and infrastructure, with a total scale of 500 billion yuan designated for project capital [4][5] - These new financial tools are intended to stimulate effective investment and are positioned as "quasi-fiscal" instruments to enhance capital availability for key projects [4]

李超在国家发改委29日举行的新闻发布会上说，为促进金融更好服务实体经济，推动扩大有效投资，国 家发改委会同有关方面积极推进新型政策性金融工具有关工作。 谈及相关工作进展，她介绍，国家发改委正在会同有关方面，抓紧将新型政策性金融工具资金投放到具 体项目，后续将督促各地方推动项目加快开工建设，尽快形成更多实物工作量，推动扩大有效投资，促 进经济平稳健康发展。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 国家发改委：5000亿元新型政策性金融工具全部用于补充项目资本金 中新社北京9月29日电 (记者 王恩博)中国官方此前提出设立新型政策性金融工具，受到广泛关注。国家 发改委新闻发言人李超29日在北京透露，新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元人民币，全部用于补充项 目资本金。 今年4月召开的中共中央政治局会议提及，设立新型政策性金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定 外贸等。一段时间以来，中国多地密集召开相关政策宣讲会或对接会，引起市场注意。 编辑：王永乐 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索 ...

在9月29日的国家发展改革委 9 月份新闻发布会上，国家发改委新闻发言人李超表示，当前经济运行当 中依然面临着不少的风险和挑战，外部环境仍然严峻复杂，经济回升向好的基础仍需进一步巩固。下一 步，国家发展改革委将持续发力，适时加力实施宏观政策。 李超表示，将制定新一代智能终端和智能体有关政策指引，构建导向明确、尊重规律、规范发展的政策 环境，围绕技术支撑、应用推广、安全治理等方面提出原则导向和具体工作要求。 发布会重要内容如下： 经济运行仍存挑战，将适时加力实施宏观政策 李超表示，8月份，在宏观政策持续发力等因素的带动之下，我国经济运行总体平稳。不过，当前经济 运行当中依然面临着不少的风险和挑战，外部环境仍然严峻复杂，经济回升向好的基础仍需进一步巩 固。下一步，国家发展改革委将持续发力，适时加力实施宏观政策。同时国家发展改革委也将持续加强 经济的监测、预测、预警，做好政策预研储备，根据形势变化及时推出。 新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元 李超在新闻发布会上表示，为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，促进金融更好服务实体经济，推动扩 大有效投资，国家发展改革委会同有关方面积极推进新型政策性金融工具有关工作。新型政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively promoting new policy financial tools to support economic stability and growth, with a total scale of 500 billion yuan allocated for project capital supplementation [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Monitoring and Policy Implementation - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of continuous economic monitoring and timely policy adjustments in response to changing circumstances [3]. - Despite external pressures, China's economy is generally stable, with solid progress in high-quality development driven by macro policies [3]. - The NDRC plans to enhance macro policy implementation and strengthen economic monitoring to ensure sustained economic health [3]. Group 2: New Policy Financial Tools - The new policy financial tools amount to 500 billion yuan, specifically aimed at supplementing project capital [4]. - The NDRC is working to expedite the allocation of these funds to specific projects, aiming to accelerate construction and increase effective investment [4]. Group 3: Artificial Intelligence Integration - The NDRC is focusing on the integration of artificial intelligence in key sectors such as education, healthcare, and transportation, supporting enterprises in pilot demonstrations [5][6]. - A target for the application rate of new intelligent terminals and systems has been set for 2027, with a structured approach to policy development and standardization [5][6]. - The NDRC aims to foster collaboration between AI companies and industry leaders to drive innovation and application in various sectors [5][6]. Group 4: Support for Enterprises - The NDRC recognizes the critical role of private enterprises, especially SMEs, in the development of AI technologies and has proposed measures to support their participation [8]. - Policies will be implemented to enhance the development of domestic computing power, models, and data resources, facilitating greater involvement of private enterprises in AI initiatives [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rebound today, with all three major indices closing in the green, and both the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rising over 2% [1] - The market showed a broad-based rally with over 3,500 stocks rising, and the trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.16 trillion, an increase of 146 billion compared to the previous trading day [2][3] - The financial sector, particularly securities and insurance, performed well in the afternoon, supported by a recent central bank meeting emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to boost credit supply [4] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new policy to promote effective investment, introducing a new type of policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion, aimed at supplementing project capital [5] - Short-term market trends may remain volatile, but holding stocks during the holiday is considered reasonable due to expected continued positive policies and limited risk during the holiday period [6][7] - There is an expectation of sustained high inflow levels into the stock market, with financing and foreign capital likely to return seasonally after the holiday, and new fund issuance expected to rise [8]

李超表示，正在会同有关方面，抓紧将新型政策性金融工具资金投放到具体项目，后续将督促各地方推动项目加快开工建设，尽快形成更多实物工作量， 推动扩大有效投资，促进经济平稳健康发展。 我国政策性金融工具运用由来已久。比如，在经济下行压力下，2022年7400亿元政策性开发性金融工具应运而生，通过补充项目资本金、撬动配套融 资，对重大项目形成精准支持。 2025.09. 29 本文字数：1210，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 备受市场关注的新型政策性金融工具有了新进展。 国家发改委政策研究室副主任、委新闻发言人李超29日在发布会上透露，为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，促进金融更好服务实体经济，推动扩大 有效投资，国家发改委会同有关方面积极推进新型政策性金融工具有关工作。新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。 此次新型政策性金融工具于2025年4月底的中央政治局会议上提出。5月以来，广东、江苏、河北、湖南、山东等多个省份的地市级发改委及部分行业主 管部门，组织开展了2025年新型政策性金融工具专题培训暨项目申报培训会议，以期抓抢机遇，精准对接项目和资金。 国家发改委在8月1日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the need for macroeconomic policy adjustments to address ongoing challenges in economic operations, while highlighting the resilience and growth in key sectors like manufacturing and services [2]. Group 1: Economic Performance - In August, China's economic operation remained generally stable, supported by continuous macro policy efforts [2] - Manufacturing and service sectors showed positive growth trends, with retail sales related to trade-in programs maintaining rapid growth [2] - Despite these positive indicators, the economy still faces significant risks and challenges, particularly from a complex external environment [2] Group 2: Policy Implementation - The NDRC plans to strengthen economic monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems, and will prepare policies for timely implementation based on changing circumstances [2] - The NDRC will work with relevant departments to create a conducive policy environment for the application and popularization of new-generation smart terminals and intelligent systems [3] Group 3: Support for Private Enterprises - Private enterprises are identified as key players in the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, with 254,000 new AI software development firms established in Q1 of this year [4] - The NDRC aims to support various enterprises, including private ones, in deepening their participation in the AI sector through policy and financial measures [4] Group 4: Financial Tools - The NDRC is advancing new policy financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan, all designated for supplementing project capital [5] - Efforts are being made to ensure that these financial tools are quickly allocated to specific projects to promote stable and healthy economic development [5]